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This episode of Optimist Economy dives into the historic gloom surrounding the US economy and why Americans feel worse about it now than they did during the Great Recession or the pandemic. The host Catherine Ann Edwards and producer Robin Rousey analyze University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, breaking down how the index dropped to a record low of 48.1 by September 2026. They argue that this unprecedented pessimism is not merely the usual political posturing, but a reflection of actual economic mismanagement, particularly exacerbated by the introduction of 40 percent tariffs in April 2025. Unlike the high-inflation complaints during the Biden administration, current negative sentiment stems directly from policies that voters believe are actively harming their financial futures.
Throughout the conversation, the hosts explain the mechanics of the five core questions that make up the consumer sentiment index, noting that 75 percent of respondents now believe the government is doing a poor job managing the economy. They emphasize that while stock owners are still feeling relatively fine, the massive sentiment gap between the haves and have-nots points to a deep structural crisis. Rather than seeing this low sentiment as a political hurdle, the hosts frame it as a mandate for bold, non-incremental change to overhaul issues like healthcare and childcare. Sprinkled with personal anecdotes about awkward listener encounters in the wild and humorous rants about liability waivers and egg varieties, the episode offers a mix of serious economic critique and conversational banter.
The hosts introduce themselves, the show’s mission, and set the stage for the episode’s focus on consumer sentiment.
The hosts discuss upcoming Thanksgiving content, invite listener questions, and recap last season’s Q&A highlights.
Catherine explains the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, its methodology, and why it’s the preferred measure for economists.
The hosts compare today’s record‑low sentiment to past recessions, noting the unprecedented depth of negative mood.
They identify key events—tariff announcements and the Iran war—that triggered sharp drops in consumer confidence.
The conversation turns to how sentiment correlates with election outcomes and the potential impact on the upcoming midterms.
Catherine proposes bold policy changes, humorously framed as executive orders, to address the low sentiment and economic mismanagement.
The hosts thank community supporters, share personal anecdotes, and explain how listener contributions sustain the podcast.
Final remarks, call‑to‑action for subscriptions and support, and a reminder of available merchandise and social media channels.
Worst Consumer Sentiment Ever Recordeddata
Americans feel worse about the economy right now than at any point since the index began in 1978. The current mood has plunged lower than during the Great Recession, the savings and loan crisis, or the pandemic.
The Five Questions of Sentimentstrategy
The University of Michigan index is built on five specific questions that ask households to compare their financial situation to a year ago, project one year ahead, evaluate national business conditions over 12 months and five years, and assess major household purchasing conditions.
The Tariff-Driven Sentiment Crashinsight
Consumer sentiment experienced a distinct deterioration in April 2025 when sweeping 40 percent tariffs were announced on imports and trade wars escalated. News coverage of impending price spikes severely damaged public confidence.
Spike in Economic Disapproval Ratingsdata
The percentage of Americans rating the government's economic management as poor has surged to 75 percent, a massive jump from the long-term historical average of around 31 percent.
The Stock Ownership Wealth Divideinsight
A massive sentiment gap exists between Americans who own significant amounts of stock and those who do not. This wealth divide creates entirely different realities for how people experience the economy.
Unreasonable Liability Waiver Demandsinsight
The hosts argue that standard liability waivers are absurdly terrifying and need to be 70 to 80 percent more chill. They joke about introducing a Likert scale for how much legal recourse a person should retain.
Too Many Varieties of Grocery Eggsinsight
The grocery store egg aisle has become untenable, offering up to 16 distinct types of eggs including organic, cage-free, pasture-raised, and various combinations. The hosts declare an executive order for fewer egg options.
“The worst, worst Americans have ever felt about the economy since then is right now.”
“The only reason I brought this up is that I wanted you all to know that I thought the optimist would delight out of this story.”
“And it, and it's not just because like this is the opportunity that low sentiment gives us.”
“The average between 1978 and 2024, including the back half of the Biden administration, when we still are coming off this high inflation, the poor job averaged around 31% over that period.”
The Consumer Sentiment Index has tracked how Americans experience the U. S. economy through bouts of runaway inflation, a mortgage crisis, stock market bubbles, and six recessions. And yet the scores right now are lower than at any of those moments. After nearly 50 years of tracking by the University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment has broken through the basement. Beneath the five index questions are some clues as to why: Since 2008, the number of people who say the government is doing a poor job has grown from about a third to about three-quarters. This dissatisfaction has been a slow burn — and it’s also evidence that Americans are ready for bold, non-incremental economic change. 0:00 — Opening 6:25 — Retcon: Vacation Days & Moral Hazard in Healthcare 11:18 — Terms & Conditions: Likert Scale 14:24 — The Big Pilcrow: What’s Consumer Sentiment Telling Us? 17:20 — Record Lows: Sentiment Breaks From the Other Economic Metrics 20:54 — The Five Index Questions: Take Consumer Sentiment Survey Yourself! 26:55 — How’s the Government Doing Managing the Economy? Survey says…Poor 29:39 — It's the Economy, Stupid 31:16 — Partisanship Cancels Itself Out 33:11 — Why This Isn't the Same as What Happened to Biden 35:25 — Who Does Feel Good? 36:07 — Low Sentiment Deserves Big Policy 38:07 — Executive Orders: Hold the reservation. Too many eggs. 41:52 — Spiritual Sponsors: So, so many 47:17 — Credits We’re making Thanksgiving plans. Got a dinner table debate we can help with? Send it to [email protected] mailto:[email protected] (and put Thanksgiving in the subject line). Donate to Optimist Economy, a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit: https://optimisteconomy.com All the swearing is on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@optimist_economy. We’re also on Instagram at @optimist_economy https://www.instagram.com/optimist_economy or TikTok at @optimist_economy https://www.tiktok.com/@optimist_economy. And Facebook, but you’ll just have to search for that. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. https://substack.com/chat/4604257?utm_source=pub-nav-bar Optimist hats are back in stock at the merch store: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy
8,865 words · 4 speakers
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