The Best College QBs With Todd McShay. Plus, the Irresistible Jags, the Resistible Steelers, and NFL Week 4 Picks With Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Todd McShay to catch up on college football QBs before discussing the NFL “Cut the s***” QBs and Drake Maye (3:33). Then, House joins Bill to make their Ringer 107 picks for the week and close with a Ryder Cup discussion (01:02:46). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Todd McShay and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetrades. The Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. We're having a new rewatch of what's coming on Monday. We did The Sting. That's what's coming because it's Robert Redford Month, even though it's September 29th.

• 0:44Bill Simmons?

  Starting in two days early, I think we're going to do five movies. So, Robert Redford, Paul Newman, an all-time classic, 1973 Best Picture winner and won seven Oscars. We broke all of it down and Redford Month will commence. Prestige TV Podcast, doing that as well. We're breaking down Task every Sunday night. Me, Joe W. Robinson, Rob Mahoney, as soon as it ends, we put the episode up. It is my birthday today. Yeah, I'm getting old. Again, like my eyes are looking like a little red and glassy and it's not because I blazed up before the pod, it's because I woke up at 4:45 this morning for no reason. I just woke up, I rolled around and then I was like, I guess I'm going to get up.

• 1:27Bill Simmons?

  And I got up and I made coffee and I watched Get Up, which had like six people on it. And I watched football and let my dog out and ended up taking a walk in the morning and just did old guy stuff and got ready for the pod. That's how it goes. Got a lot of texts. It was sad not hearing from my Aunt Louise today. She passed away in January. This was the first birthday where she would always text me and this was the first one where I didn't get one and I was thinking about her, even though it was my birthday. But anyway, loved Aunt Louise. We're going to take a quick break, talk to... Todd McShay and then Joe House and I are going to do Ringer 107. And if you didn't know that Todd McShay had a podcast with us, I don't know what you're

• 2:11Bill Simmons?

  doing because it's great. College football, NFL draft stuff, there's some NFL in there too. And he's on every Saturday night with Mensch live. He does this podcast on YouTube. So McShay first, we're going to talk about college football and NFL quarterbacks. And Joe House and I are going to try to make a Ringer 107 comeback. We're going to take a break, Pearl Jam, then Todd McShay. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by Fanduel and the NFL is back and thank God. Fanduel has everything. They got an awesome app. They have SGPs. They have great futures. They have good prop bets, live betting, your way bets, clean app. It's great to use. Been using it for a few years. Every time I go back to Boston or any place that has Fanduel and I get to use it, I'm always excited. I'm on an airplane runway.

• 2:56Bill Simmons?

  You done the airplane runway?

• 2:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:58Bill Simmons?

  Airplane runway.

• 3:00Speaker 01

  There should be a button, the runway.

• 3:02Bill Simmons?

  I'm on the airplane runway. I gotta get this in. Get your bets in, build something bold, make every game feel bigger. Download the Fanduel app or head to fanduel.com/BS to get started. The Ringer, committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-9777 or visit ccpg.org/chat. Connecticut, paid endorsement.

• 4:03Bill Simmons?

  All right, Todd McShay is here. It's been a while. Good to see you.

• 4:07Speaker 02

  Good to see you, man. How we doing?

• 4:09Bill Simmons?

  How are we feeling about football season so far? College football seems like a B minus. NFL is like a B plus?

• 4:15Speaker 02

  I think it's gonna go to B plus for college football this weekend, but um.

• 4:19Bill Simmons?

  Oh, good.

• 4:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's a big weekend. We've got, obviously, we've got Penn State and Oregon. We've got Georgia and Alabama. We've got LSU, Ole Miss. So there's, there's like nine games with ranked teams that are, it's a pretty wild slate. But it's been a frustrating year, man. It's, it's like taxi cab confessions for me coming on with you. I've been like tiptoeing around it on my show because I'm trying to be careful and there's some young quarterbacks that I think are playing at a really high level. The veterans who I was, I came into the air is like screaming at everybody. This is the golden age of quarterbacks and we've got all these, last year's class was subpar. This could be closer to, to two years ago in 2024 when we had six drafted in the top 12.

• 5:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 5:06Speaker 02

  And then the season starts and it's like Nussmeier's struggling, Clubnick's regressed, Arch is not who we thought he was. Sellers gets injured and it's kind of up and down. So it's been a little frustrating. So I'm here to talk about it with you.

• 5:20Bill Simmons?

  All right, let's go rapid fire because I went back and I found your newsletter when you basically did like your top 15 heading into the season for like a, a mini mock draft. Right? You Clubnick first in the mock draft at Clemson. They're one and three.

• 5:38Bill Simmons?

  There's like, there's possible, like, are we sure he's gonna finish the season as, as the starter kinda stuff happening like? Yeah, I mean, we've seen this before. Sanders was one at one point last year on some of the boards and he fell to the fifth round, but were you shocked that it, it turned out this badly this fast?

• 5:55Speaker 02

  Yes. Yes. And I'm like here to freely admit it. I, I spent some time at like, at the Manning Passing Academy this summer, kinda, you know, just talking to people and getting to know who he is as a guy and he's everything you stand for and a leader and just a great human being and then attacks the process. And we saw last year, cause the year, back in 20. 2023, he was, he was kinda disappointing. Yeah. And then last year, as the season progressed, like, he started to carry Clemson. As they got on that run at the, late in the year, they obviously got to the A's championship game, won that, got to the playoff. Even in the loss to Texas, he put, he did some really good things. And I remember sitting there in Thibodeau, Louisiana with the general manager and being, you know,

• 6:39Speaker 02

  and he hasn't like, he didn't quite dive into the quarterbacks yet. And I'm like, he's not there yet, talking about Club Nick. But I think he's a, he's ready to take that next step. And so far, um, it's been really disappointing. He lost his top receiver in the first game, like, first quarter of the first game against LSU, Antonio Williams, with Williams comes back this past week. And he just, he doesn't look comfortable in the pocket. He doesn't look comfortable, uh, with his reads. He's panicky. It's not at all what I expected. And it's, it's disappointing, um, for Clemson fans, obviously. It's disappointing for NFL general managers who thought, like me, he could take that next step. And so you look around the landscape, right? And not to shift, shift gears.

• 7:24Speaker 02

  The thing I'm most shocked about, cause I didn't have him on my preseason rankings, so I'm not sure if you'd even bring him up. Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football. He, he's, he's an, he's, he's what the NFL is looking for. And the problem with Dante was, he came out and he wasn't like great in the Elite 11 stuff and all of that. He, he went to UCLA and that thing was a mess. I think he started five games. Uh, transfers last year, we don't hear about him. Reports out of Eugene this summer is like, he's in a quarterback battle, has not established himself. And then he comes into the season and you got it. And the reason I've been slow to bring him up, and I finally talked about what I saw on tape on just the show yesterday.

• 8:09Speaker 02

  Yeah. The reason I've been slow is like, I, I have a responsibility, right? And I talked to general managers and, and, and I, what I don't like is head coaches calling me in the college football and saying, well, you got my guy in the first round and he's not ready yet. And he, so I'm, I'm really careful with these young quarterbacks especially. We've seen that from Trent Richardson to Trubisky to Mark Sanchez, like, the 13 starts and inexperienced guys, it's not working. And so I don't want to like jump, you know, jump in headfirst and be like, I'm all in on this guy, but I'm all in on this guy.

• 8:41Bill Simmons?

  Wow. Okay.

• 8:43Speaker 02

  I is Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State. None of them are good. None of them. And so I'm saying this before Penn State this week at a whiteout, night game, Happy Valley, all of it. And it could, you know, it may not go perfectly. But when you see it and you know it, like, it's just there. His ability to drive the ball down the field, he reminds me like, he's just a smooth criminal throwing the ball. Right. He's got some, some parts of like Jordan Love. He's got some, some aspects of, of like CJ Stroud at his best. He's got some Baker Mayfield to him. Catchable ball, driving it down the field, using his eyes to, to see the whole thing and manipulate defenders.

• 9:26Speaker 02

  He's just the best pure passer in the country.

• 9:29Bill Simmons?

  And I can now say that after four games. Could you see a world where he's the number one pick next April?

• 9:34Speaker 02

  I absolutely could, but I hope he's not. I hope he's not in the 2026 draft for him. Not for Oregon, even though obviously Will Stein has done a tremendous, I mean, Will Stein came in there kind of a relative unknown as the offensive coordinator of Oregon.

• 9:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 9:49Speaker 02

  He had, he, he, look what Bo Nix did under him. But remember Bo, Bo Nix was kind of a laughing stock in NFL scouting circles at Auburn.

• 9:56Bill Simmons?

  Now, well, now it's circling back.

• 9:58Speaker 02

  I hear you. I hear you, but he's the 12th overall pick. He played really well his rookie year. So I'm just saying, but, but what he, what Will Stein got, and then what he developed him into is the 12th overall pick. Then he gets Dylan Gabriel, who's not nearly as talented as Bo Nix and not nearly as talented as Dante Moore. And he's a third round pick and won the starting job. Pickett's out. Shador's on the sideline watching during practice. So. So another year with Will Stein, I think would be the best thing for Dante Moore. But if you're asking me right now, based off of a tiny sample size and four starts at Oregon, I think he's tracking to be the number one overall pick if things continue to play out. Yeah. So that's why I wanted to jump, jump the gun here and get that in there.

• 10:43Bill Simmons?

  Well, the four you had before the season, and I love, I love these lists because it just shows you like we're, you're trying to, not you, just everybody. We're trying to predict kids that are 19, 20, 21, 22, right?

• 10:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 10:55Bill Simmons?

  Who, who the fuck knows what's happening with them off the field? They might have like have some girlfriend break up with them. They might have some, some roommate they don't like. You just don't know. It's like all the variables in place, but you had Club Nick first, you have Nussmeier fourth, you had Sellers sixth, you had Mendoza 15th. And then Penn State quarterback, Al is not in there, Matier, who people have gotten excited about this season. The Baylor quarterback, Carson Beck, we gotta talk about the Beckassants.

• 11:24Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 11:24Bill Simmons?

  And then Dante Moore, and then we didn't mention Arch Manning, who got the most attention of everybody before the year. But now, I mean, there's no, I mean, you didn't think he was coming out to begin with. You were pretty adamant, like, he is not coming out, this will not happen. But now there's no way he's coming out anyway, right?

• 11:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I tried to warn everyone, starting back in May, you know, and I have a great deal of respect and a relationship with the Mannings. And I can absolutely separate, you know, business from, from friendship and, or even Arch at his best on tape last year just wasn't ready.

• 11:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 11:58Speaker 02

  And there were some things, some warning signs that you saw on tape, right? And Sarkisian, there's a reason that the Mannings chose Steve Sarkisian, right in Texas? Because he can kind of mask things and develop quarterbacks better than, than the vast majority of people in college football.

• 12:16Bill Simmons?

  You think that's a huge reason why they picked him?

• 12:18Speaker 02

  I, I think the developmental aspect of it and Texas's resources and everything that the program has going for them.

• 12:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 12:26Speaker 02

  But I'd be lying to you if I told you I, I thought we'd see this. I mean, from the mechanics to the lack of certainty and decisiveness as a thrower, to just the flat out misses. He's got a long way to go and I'm not saying he can't and we saw Jayden Daniels was a third, fourth round prospect going into his final year at LSU. He was considered like a fifth, sixth, seventh round guy when he came to LSU. So like Cam Ward was a fifth rounder. If you polled NFL scouts, like Pete Thamel does for game day when he polls NFL scouts, you know, Cam Ward was a was a fourth, fifth coming into last year. He's the number one overall pick.

• 13:09Bill Simmons?

  Even September, there was no chance, he was not on anybody's radar to go first.

• 13:13Speaker 02

  No.

• 13:14Bill Simmons?

  You know what I think a big piece of this is because I was watching, I watched that entire first game Arch Manning had. He was, he just couldn't have been more impressive and you think about the hype that comes in. And I was trying to think, is there another sport that we have where there's more pressure on somebody who's 19, 20, 21 years old?

• 13:32Speaker 02

  Maybe, I mean, you, you would know better, but maybe the NBA, when a guy comes out of high school.

• 13:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but the thing with the NBA is they're, even if they come in after one year and they're 19, they're always going to a bad team. They're not in a situation where there's like spotlight, expectations, title chances at stake, any of that stuff. You kind of come in and it's like a bonus if they're good in the first couple of years. Like Anthony Edwards, when he went to Minnesota, nobody remembers like what team he was on that first year. It's like, oh, he might be good. This is great. You have a situation like some of these guys that come in where not only is, are they being discussed in like the best possible ceiling of whatever could happen when they haven't even done anything yet, but then you also have like these giant, giant games, all the discourse about it. You're going to a stadium with 80,000 people.

• 14:21Bill Simmons?

  And I just feel like when it craters, it feels like it would crater the most in college football for QB.

• 14:26Speaker 02

  Arch is an economy right now in Austin.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  Like, yeah.

• 14:29Speaker 02

  When you. I can't remember a guy who hasn't been a true starter coming into a year where it was like Heisman favorite, like FanDuel, you know, like these are not places that lose money. Number one overall pick by a lot of people who didn't kind of weren't in the know, but a lot of people who are highly respected in this space.

• 14:50Bill Simmons?

  And meanwhile, you didn't even think he was coming out.

• 14:52Speaker 02

  No, no. What about the Manning history and the Mannings devotion to process and development? And Eli going back for his fifth year and Peyton going back for his final year at Tennessee? Like, what about that told anybody that he would be coming out after this year?

• 15:07Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 15:08Speaker 02

  But it was a perfect storm. I mean, even talking to people in a circle, right? Like, that weighs on a young man. All of that attention. He can't go to the convenience store and grab a bottle of water and a candy bar without like people like filming him and taking pictures with. So like, you're thrust into all of that. And by the way, you may not be quite as talented as some people thought, and your mechanics and the way you trust, it's not there yet. So it's been, and Texas coming off the college football playoff, they're talking like, oh, well, that was, that was cute with Quinn Ewers last year, but, uh, but now we got our guy, national championship in the state of Texas. Like,

• 15:51Speaker 02

  I can't imagine more, and about the back of his jersey says Manning.

• 15:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, how about first game, Ohio State on the road, 80,000 people.

• 15:59Speaker 02

  Patricia, right? Yeah. In a place outside of Michigan, nobody goes and wins. Like, it's just, it couldn't have been a harder setup for, for a young man to walk into.

• 16:13Bill Simmons?

  All right. So you had Nussmeier, fourth, and he, he brings a lot of stuff to the table that I personally like, that I feel like at some point I'm going to translate that there's some leadership charisma stuff with him that I always overvalue when I just kind of flowed into college football. And I'm like, ah, that guy seems like, but it's been disappointing for him too. So what's going on with him?

• 16:34Speaker 02

  It has been so far. I'm, of all the guys who have struggled, I'm still hopeful with, with Nussmeier that he's gonna. Kind of start to put it together. He's got some new faces around him. He's got four new offensive linemen. As you know, you know, their, their best one was drafted by the Patriots, Will Campbell.

• 16:52Bill Simmons?

  So by the way, I've, I've enjoyed it. I've enjoyed the Will Campbell era. It's a little bit of a bully.

• 16:57Speaker 02

  That was, that was a fun five month, you and I going back and forth and just watching your whole mindset change on that.

• 17:03Bill Simmons?

  But listen, I got, I didn't decide not to get freaked out by somebody's arms being a half inch shorter than they should be.

• 17:10Speaker 02

  Or an inch and a half.

• 17:12Bill Simmons?

  Whatever it is, I just decided not to freak out. Anyway, I interrupted.

• 17:15Speaker 02

  Yeah. No, no, I, Nussmeyer plays the game neck up better than any, any other quarterback in the country. Okay. What made Nussmeyer so enticing and intriguing last year was his aggressive style and like, but it came with, you know, the, it came with some of the mistakes and some of the, the, like the critical moments where he was, he was trusting it too much or overly aggressive. And so I've now seen him kind of over correct, where it seems like it's very, it's very clear. LSU now has a defense. They didn't have one last year. LSU has a semblance of a run game, although not great, but they didn't have at all a running, they had one of the worst running games of a power five school

• 17:58Speaker 02

  and a power four school in, in all of college football last year. So he, he has been trained by, by Brian Kelly and that staff that, hey, you don't have to carry this team like you did last year. And so he's trying to play within the, like the construct of the, of the team. And I think it's leading to a little bit more like hesitation and not as like, John Matier, I don't know if you've watched him at all from Oklahoma.

• 18:22Bill Simmons?

  Let's talk about him because he, he seems like another one who's gaining steam.

• 18:26Speaker 02

  He's a, he's a lunatic.

• 18:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 18:29Speaker 02

  And I know he's got the hand injury and so now it's a setback and he could be out three, four weeks. But I suspect he'll come back and it'll be right back at it. I mean, he's, he's a different cat. You talk about like the work ethic and the competitiveness. I remember there's this play against Texas Tech last year. I'm watching Washington State before he transferred, Texas Tech, fourth quarter up like 34 to 17 midway through the fourth quarter, pick up a first down, let's run out this clock, let's get out of here. Right? He picks up the first down and goes bolting towards this left sideline, gets tracked down, cuts and it's like, and at that point it's like, come on, John, just step out of bounds. Right?

• 19:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 19:05Speaker 02

  Cuts back inside, takes off. He runs like a four, five. He looks like a fullback. I met him in person. I'm like, no, where's John? Like this, like the Manning, the Mannings brought in like a guy, fullback to catch, catch some outlets. He's got these huge legs, but he cuts back in running like a four, four, eight, four, five, oh, and goes darting down towards the end zone. Two defenders come converge on him and I'm watching it like sitting here in my office with my remote and I'm like, just go down, just slide. And he, he looks up these two defensive backs and starts, so stiff armoring them, both of them. And I was like, oh, this guy's built different. He's just a competitive lunatic.

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  So who's the, who's the comparison to him? Cause that seems like an unusual NFL quarterback.

• 19:49Speaker 02

  I think he's a faster Baker Mayfield. He's got a good arm, but Baker's got a stronger arm, but, but he plays with that urgency and that, that excitement and that like, just like, there's no throw. He's not, there is no throw that he's afraid to attempt.

• 20:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:05Speaker 02

  So it does get him into trouble a little bit like Nussmeier a year ago, but he does so many things in terms of driving the ball down the field and showing up in clutch moments. I, like, if he comes back and plays the way he was playing prior, and he bet on himself, it was like Flacco that year with the Super Bowl run.

• 20:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:23Speaker 02

  Totally bet on himself. He could have gone to Wisconsin. He could have gone to like, he had all these different offers. He looked at Oklahoma and said, I gotta show that this style works in the SCC and I gotta prove it. And by the way, outside of maybe Florida, I don't know. There's a team in the country that has a tougher schedule. They play five ranked opponents to finish out the year and that's after Texas and that's after, um, they've already played Michigan and Auburn. So he bet on himself and so far he's, he's shown it. And if he comes back and plays at the same clip that he was playing, I think Matier is going to be a first round draft pick.

• 20:58Bill Simmons?

  High first down, high first round, mid first round or lower first?

• 21:01Speaker 02

  I could see more like a Jackson Dart range, you know, like mid, late, you know, I, I think, I think there, there will be some intrigue that he's not the tallest guy. He does, he's, he's mechanics are kind of all over the place. So he leaves four or five throws on the field.

• 21:15Bill Simmons?

  The teams fall in love with the guy, they fall in love with the person, they fall in love with the interviews.

• 21:20Speaker 02

  And what he can be if we, if we drill in some of the footwork stuff and, and all of that, like, yeah.

• 21:27Bill Simmons?

  Tell me about Sellers and Mendoza, cause you had Sellers six and Mendoza 15 before the year. Mendoza's had a little climb, right?

• 21:36Speaker 02

  He has, he's, he's played really well. Let's, let's start with Sellers. I, I think a lot like Dante Moore, but even more emphasis for me. The same with Moore, Sellers and Mendoza, they can all be eligible. They can all come back and be in that 2027 draft. Okay?

• 21:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 21:54Speaker 02

  Sellers is the furthest away development wise. I've already said Nussmeyer's the, the best in terms of neck up. Dante Moore's the best pure passer in all of college football.

• 22:05Bill Simmons?

  Is that a rating for you neck up? Do you have like a?

• 22:07Speaker 02

  I, I think it's going to have to be from now on a neck.

• 22:09Bill Simmons?

  I like my neck up rankings. I don't know what the scale would be.

• 22:13Speaker 02

  He's number one neck up in the neck up board. But, but Sellers is the most physically gifted of all of them. He does things like athletically and then throws he makes that are just like very few people can do that. But like we said, some of the same stuff about Anthony Richardson, right?

• 22:31Bill Simmons?

  Oh boy, too soon.

• 22:33Speaker 02

  No, I, I know, I know. But I, I just, I'm very hopeful that whether it's at South Carolina or if you transfer somewhere, whatever it is, that Sellers comes back for another year. So he had the injury and kind of a setback for just a minute, but, um.

• 22:48Bill Simmons?

  This is such a weird sport, by the way, that you, you've done this now like three times. There's just in the last 20 minutes where you're projecting like, you know, wherever he is, wherever your transfer is next year. Like this is just the sport we have now where we have no idea. No, no, it's, I'm just saying it's like, we have no idea where this guy's going to be next year. Cause that's just, this is ring around the rosy now. It's not, it's not actual like anything.

• 23:12Speaker 02

  It, it is. And honestly, here's like, just take, take away like my love for college football and like the game and the sport and, and all of it. Just as an NFL evaluator, what would Bo Nix be without that transfer?

• 23:27Bill Simmons?

  Oh, so you're pro. I like this. You're pro ring around the rosy.

• 23:30Speaker 02

  What would Cam Ward be if he didn't go from a carnit word to Washington State to Miami? What would, what would Jaden Daniels be if he stayed at Arizona State and came out early?

• 23:39Bill Simmons?

  Carson Beck right now.

• 23:40Speaker 02

  What about Carson Beck? So like not, it's not always the best fit and we can get to Beck in a minute. That was the right fit, moving from Georgia to Miami. For some of these guys, like go be in a, in more of a pro style system. Go get a new, fresh set of coaching and have, put your eyes on something different. Go develop in a second place.

• 24:05Speaker 02

  Jaden Daniels was ready when he came in, man. Bo Nix was ready, but the ceiling, like I had a second round grade on Bo. I'm not, I'm just not the biggest fan, but, but you can't tell me he wasn't ready. Right? All these guys are coming in with 50, 60 starts, you know? And they're, they're more ready. And it goes back to the Parcells stuff from years ago. You can tweak the numbers a little bit, but Parcells was on it. Like be a college graduate. Be a starter for three years, have 20, have 30 starts, have a bunch of wins. So I, I just think it's important experience. It's why I hate sitting here on your show, which is going to have more eyes and viewers unfortunately than mine, but like, but, but seriously like, and I'm saying Dante Moore's the best.

• 24:48Bill Simmons?

  He's doing great, just for the record.

• 24:50Speaker 02

  Thank you. I appreciate it. And then we're, we're loving it, but, um, but I, I hesitate and that's why I've been hesitant to come out and say this stuff. But Moore's the best and Sellers is the most gifted.

• 25:03Bill Simmons?

  I love it. Well, yeah, I trust you completely. So when you're, when you go all in on somebody, I'm just, I just follow you. You did it last year. Yeah. I mean, you nailed the draft last year. You're red hot right now.

• 25:14Speaker 02

  We gotta keep the momentum going, right?

• 25:16Bill Simmons?

  We gotta take a break and then I want to finish this and talk about some NFL guys that, uh, I have a fun gimmick for. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel. It is one of the biggest weeks of the year and FanDuel is turning into a mega full on celebration. FanDuel Boost Fest every day, September 25th to 28th. Brings you a 50% profit boost on the biggest matchups in football, baseball, golf, golf, a lot of golf this weekend and more. Uh, I'm excited to do Ryder Cup bets. Parlayed with NFL bets and maybe even some Sunday baseball bets as well. I there nothing makes me happier than a multi-sport parlay.

• 25:57Bill Simmons?

  However, you play that 50% profit boost ready to go every single day during Boost Fest. Strong name. Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com/BS to jump into Boost Fest where the games are big and the boosts are bigger. You must be 21 plus, present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opting for a bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.FanDuel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket, my friend. NFL Sundays are back. You won't want to miss the action.

• 26:41Bill Simmons?

  NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, another friend of mine, lets you catch every game every Sunday all in one place. And now get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Head to youtube.com/BS and sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV, NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games and commercial use. If you cancel YouTube TV, you will lose access to NFL Sunday Ticket. Terms of bargos, device and content restrictions apply. Commercial use excluded. Renews every month during the 2025 regular season. Cancel anytime. We didn't talk about Mendoza. What are you seeing? Indiana QB?

• 27:15Speaker 02

  I'm seeing a guy that's that's found his home. Again, he can come back for another year.

• 27:22Speaker 02

  I don't know that he's gonna like, he completed all but two passes against Illinois, right? He comes out and and he kind of was like a little bit up and down. They were they were trying to be vanilla and not show show what they were doing.

• 27:35Speaker 02

  Brankston Signetti, I know you you love my guy, Mensch, Steve Mensch, like he is the great line of the the the RCF, the resting Signetti face like he's and that's who he is. He's just kind of crusty, but he pops off and but Signetti wouldn't let Mendoza go to the Manning Pass Academy this summer. He wanted him there in the bubble, working the scheme. It's RPO based. It's all like quick decisions, fast eyes. And so when you get done with 30 throws in a game, maybe only seven or eight or like NFL style throws that you can you start to create a catalog on. So he's gonna have this high percentage and it's the numbers are gonna look great. But when you dig into him, he's 6'5",

• 28:18Speaker 02

  he's 225, he's got mobility, he's got a good arm, he can be inconsistent. And so I want to see as the season progresses and the schedule gets harder. But there's talent there. And I've talked to some people in the league who are like, yeah, like I see more third round. I've talked to some people like, you know, if he had, if he puts it all together, he could be first round. So to me, he's kind of like top 50 right now. And it's a wait and see. But but I really liked him coming out of Cal last year, and I was hopeful that he would get off to this kind of start.

• 28:48Bill Simmons?

  And Carson Beck, like what what happens with this? Like, what is the, give me the ceiling and give me the basement?

• 28:54Speaker 02

  I had to, I had to quit Carson Beck for a minute.

• 28:56Bill Simmons?

  It's like cigarettes?

• 28:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, like cigarettes. I had to like, put the box down and like, and come back later.

• 29:02Bill Simmons?

  Nicotine gum to get rid of him?

• 29:04Speaker 02

  Yes, like Nicorette, whatever it was. So I just, it was frustrating to watch him at Georgia, because it felt like every throw, the weight of the world was on him. And he was overthinking. And he was making his, even on the completions, making his receivers really work. And nothing felt smooth. He didn't look relaxed and playing free and easy and all that, right? And then the season ends. And then it begs the question, right? And I have sources and I talked to him, it's like, Georgia's got money. If Georgia really wants him back, and Gunner Stockton, their starter now, who's played really well, like, he's not setting the world on fire with physical tools. But they were like, yeah, thanks for your service. Go ahead, you can transfer to

• 29:47Speaker 02

  Miami. They didn't put up a fight. And then it's like, all right, now he's got, he's buying Lamborghinis. And then the Lamborghinis get stolen. And he's dating a Cavendish twin. And then he's, he's doing whatever he's doing to break. And all the headlines, all the noise, after a frustrating year last year, is just like, of course, you went down to Miami. And of course, you're doing all this social media. Like, stop. So I quit him. I gave myself a few months off Beck. But then, like, two weeks before the season starts, I started getting reports that, hey, now this, this guy, like, he's, he's at home. Players love him. He's, he's there early in the morning, staying late. He's part of this grind. He's leading this grind. And he's, he loves this system. He's decisive, getting the ball out. He's kind of leaned up a little bit. He's moving around better. And I'm like, yeah, we'll see.

• 30:31Speaker 02

  And then that first game against Notre Dame, I was like, it's everything they were saying is true. He looks like he loves the game again. He's playing light and free and easy. So I've been really encouraged because you got to remember coming into last year, it was Beck as the number one prospect. I think when Thamel did that, that first one for game day, when he polled all the scouts, he had the most votes. He was a top 10 pick. And so the talent's there. And now we're starting to see him play at that kind of level again, which is fun to watch.

• 31:00Bill Simmons?

  It's almost like you just laid out a sports movie.

• 31:03Speaker 02

  Right?

• 31:04Bill Simmons?

  Right? Like he just let everything go to his head and just lost his mind. And it's like an 80s, 80s sports football movie where the, where the guy has to like find himself. But he found himself in Miami, which is weird.

• 31:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, he just, he found himself in an alley one morning and then decided he's got to peel himself up and like bring himself back. And yeah, and it's the comeback story.

• 31:26Bill Simmons?

  Inspirational music for him. Um, all right then, do we need to talk about the Baylor QB or the Penn State QB? Or you want to move to the NFL?

• 31:35Speaker 02

  I like the Baylor quarterback. I think he's maybe like, if he continues to play at this rate, it's awesome to see. The reason I love Sawyer Robertson so much is because I was at that Manning Passing Academy. I didn't know much about him. He's a transfer in. Um, he's cousins with Jared Stidham. Like he's like, he's got a cool backstory, baseball player, all that. And then he comes out and we've got Sellers and Clubnick and Nussmeier and all these great quarterbacks that are out and he's, and then they're doing okay in these like drills. It's like Friday Night Lights, you know? It's like the purest thing left in football. There's no cameras. There's no television there. There's no sponsorship. It's just guys out throwing at night. And you know, a beautiful night in Thibodeaux,

• 32:17Speaker 02

  Louisiana, and this Robertson kid who's 6'4", 225, comes out and he nails, it's like this competition, like all 12 throws or whatever it was. And he just kind of walked back like, nothing, nothing to see here. And I was like, huh, I gotta pop in this guy's tape. And then he comes out and it's like 400 yards each game. And he's keeping this Baylor team in that's not very good in tough games. So I'm excited for him as, as probably a backup quarterback and all that. Um, but Drew Aller to me is the most. Like confounding prospect. I get like the, you know, the national list and bless the list, all the scouts put together. NFL teams uses it as a resource and talk to scouts. Everyone's got a first round grade on him, it seems like, like high grades.

• 33:01Speaker 02

  He's big, he's competitive. I like it, but he's strong. He sees the field, all those things. But he's not mobile and he's slow with his feet. He doesn't win big games and he's not accurate, Bill. He like, there's some kind of visualization thing with him, got receivers running away from him. He just, he doesn't trust his throws. And if you're not mobile and can't run around and you're not accurate, why are you a first round prospect?

• 33:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 33:28Speaker 02

  I think, well, you watched the game on Saturday night and text me and, and I want to, I want to get your opinion. When you watch Dante Moore and his first level up competition and, and mind you, just nine starts going into Happy Valley Whiteout. But just watch him as a passer and then watch Drew Aller as a passer and let me know what you think.

• 33:47Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 33:51Bill Simmons?

  So neck up scale, Nussmeyer still winning.

• 33:54Speaker 02

  Yep, he is, but his, his tools aren't, aren't elite. Like I, I see it. He doesn't have the great arm and it doesn't have great size and all that stuff, but neck up, he's, he's a winner.

• 34:04Bill Simmons?

  Who's the neck up scale all time winner? Is it Brady?

• 34:08Speaker 02

  And well, I mean, we didn't know that coming out.

• 34:11Bill Simmons?

  Oh, true. You, so it has to be college only. So if anyone you've ever evaluated, who wins the neck up award?

• 34:18Speaker 02

  Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck.

• 34:19Bill Simmons?

  Luck.

• 34:20Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 34:20Bill Simmons?

  Smart enough to retire. That, that was like, he was neck up to the end.

• 34:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, smart. Yeah.

• 34:25Bill Simmons?

  Why am I doing this?

• 34:26Speaker 02

  Too smart for the Colts.

• 34:26Bill Simmons?

  I made enough money. I'm done. Um, all right. NFL QBs. So Sal said something on the, uh, Ringer Gammage Sean Wednesday that I really liked about these quarterbacks.

• 34:36Speaker 02

  Trip, man.

• 34:37Bill Simmons?

  He's, he's always on one.

• 34:38Speaker 02

  Trip.

• 34:39Bill Simmons?

  He, he had a, his cut the shit QBs where these QBs where you're just like.

• 34:46Bill Simmons?

  Cut the shit. Are you good or not? Like, can you just tell us one way or the other? And Trevor Lawrence is obviously the number one of that.

• 34:52Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 34:54Bill Simmons?

  Lot of drops for him this year. Lot of stuff that wasn't his fault. I still don't, I bet on them twice and probably going back for thirds this week. Inside the 10, I just, your guard's up. You're waiting for something stupid to happen. Every once in a while, he'll just miss a guy completely. You're like, what just happened there? And then all of a sudden he'll run like a gazelle. He'll nail somebody in stride.

• 35:17Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 35:17Bill Simmons?

  And it would be fine if it was year two, but it's not. So.

• 35:21Speaker 02

  What is it? Year four, year five now?

• 35:23Bill Simmons?

  It's year five. I think it's year, it's year four or year five. I think it's year five. So where are we, Trevor Lawrence?

• 35:30Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 35:32Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 35:32Speaker 02

  I know he's not what we thought he was coming out. Okay?

• 35:35Bill Simmons?

  So you've given up on that version?

• 35:37Speaker 02

  And, and when you go through different coordinators and obviously the Urban Meyer thing was a disaster. And so there was some recovery and we saw some, some glimpses and some flashes and you thought he's going to be okay with Doug Peterson. And then that.

• 35:52Bill Simmons?

  This is year five, by the way.

• 35:54Speaker 02

  Year five. Okay. Um, and I like Liam Cohen. Like I, I think, I think he's going to get the most of them. I think he's a, I think at his best, he's a good quarterback who you can't trust to be consistent enough and that you're going to have to be great around them. Even though usually that guy's like the game manager, he's just going to make some mistakes and miss some throws that you wouldn't expect. And he's going to create some plays and do some things, but I can't envision, here's what I try to do sometimes with these guys. Envision a world with the quarterbacks that are in that league. Where they go head to head and it's some kind of shootout and the game's on the line, the fourth quarter, where he outduels. Mahomes or Josh Allen.

• 36:38Speaker 02

  Or Jalen Hurts even if they can get that off like and Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow when he's healthy like I just don't envision that world. So that maybe he gets him to a nine, 10 win season playing really well if he goes on a run. But like now we're in the playoffs and I'm looking at a matchup between him and Burrow or him, him and Mahomes, him and even Herbert who doesn't win the playoffs yet. So like, I don't know. It's just, it's, it's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step.

• 37:08Bill Simmons?

  Well, it seemed like he was in a good spot with Brian Thomas and then they get Hunter. You're like, well, they got him the weapons. Thomas has been a mess this season. I don't know what's going on with that dude. Yeah, he's, believe me, I've done a lot of research on it because he's on all of my fantasy teams, basically. So, and it is one of those things where the Jaguar fans are mad. It's a whole thing. And then Hunter, who they thought was going to be, you know, early 90s Deon, it just has not been the case early. And that might have been too ambitious to begin with, but they give up a lot. Like Mason Graham's doing really well for the Cleveland Browns, right?

• 37:44Speaker 02

  Really well, really well, yes.

• 37:45Bill Simmons?

  They traded out of that spot.

• 37:46Speaker 02

  And now they get two firsts next year. Yes, yes.

• 37:48Bill Simmons?

  You could have, you could have just stayed at six and taken, or I think it was, it was five. But they were good. Like Tyler Warren was on there who ends up falling all the way to 14. Mason Graham was the easy pick. They're two good tackles like Membo, who I think is the Jets.

• 38:04Speaker 02

  He's been outstanding, yeah.

• 38:05Bill Simmons?

  Banks, I think has been good with the Saints. I think there was a lot of good shit going on and they trade everything to move up for Hunter who doesn't seem like he has it yet. So anyway, but it might have, that might have been Lawrence's chance to have the right supporting cast. I'm not sure he has it.

• 38:19Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  That'd be the only defense I could think of for him.

• 38:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's just like, there's too, there's too many excuses I feel like we've made. I like, I'm right, I'm right on the ledge and I just keep, I keep wanting to walk it back, but I don't know that I'm going to get to a point where I don't want to just jump off the Lawrence ledge.

• 38:37Bill Simmons?

  No excuses for me. I'm, I'm long out. I've been out for, I've been out since last season. Well, how do we explain CJ Stroud?

• 38:44Speaker 02

  I'm shocked by that. I mean, the offensive line is probably how we explain it and I

• 38:49Bill Simmons?

  It's a dumpster fire. It's a top four worst offensive line in either conference.

• 38:53Speaker 02

  It's horrible. So it's hard when you have a quarterback who lives in the pocket and needs not a lot of time, but needs enough time. It's frustrating to watch because we all saw the ability. It didn't take some like super scout to figure out how talented he was.

• 39:10Speaker 02

  But it's hard to watch because you know it's there and I really like Ryan, D'Amico Ryan's. I really like that organization. I think, but like they can't get the offense and they in the offseason, they just shipped off that offensive line, like not good enough. Let's start over. Like if you're in the O line room, like basically get out of here. And so, but now it's like not any better, you know? And so that I have to, I have to believe that that's leading to a lot of the problems. I know he misses Tank Del a lot. You go back, I did some, I don't have the research in front of me, but if you go back, like whether it was Jackson Smith and Jigba, who had like equal or better production than, than the

• 39:50Speaker 02

  star first round wide receivers, Alave and Garrett, whether it was, who was it? Oh, was, was it Mekka Mbuka? It might've been who is just as productive or more productive than Marvin Harrison Jr. Like he's a, he's a slot receiver guy. And so I think have missing that kind of like type of guy at the, at the slot hurts him a little bit, but I really do think it's the offensive line is at the crux of this.

• 40:20Bill Simmons?

  We don't need to talk about Kyler Murray as a cut the shit guy because he's playing after we do this, but I gave up on him two years ago.

• 40:31Bill Simmons?

  On the flip side of a non-cut the shit guy, Herbert, who I've been probably more dubious of them because it always bothered me that the nerds were always so excited about him and always like basically. Rating him by his potential instead of the results, which I've talked about a million times. I think he's been incredible this year. Does he seem any different to you? Or is the situation different? Or what? Where is he right now in your eyes?

• 40:57Speaker 02

  He seems different.

• 40:58Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 40:59Speaker 02

  He actually does. And if I go back to that draft, was that the Borough, Tua?

• 41:05Bill Simmons?

  It was Tua. Yeah, it was Herbert versus Tua.

• 41:08Speaker 02

  And for me, it was Jordan Love. I remember fighting with Kuiper. I'm like, Herbert's the most talented. I'll give you that. But I also sat in a meeting at Oregon with Cristobal there. And it was like, the protection they had for him. I think it was me and McDonough. And I've got to remember, it was either me, McDonough, and Spielman, Chris Spielman, or might have been Levy and Greasy. I can't remember. But we sat in this meeting and all of a sudden, like, Justin Herbert's a star. And they're undefeated, I think, at that time. And we're there to like, it's a showcase game. And we're the number two crew. And there was a big SCC game, you know, that Herbie and Fowler had. And so we get this game and Oregon's

• 41:53Speaker 02

  kind of rolling. And he comes in and like, he kind of lets the offensive lineman talk for him. He sits in the back of the room.

• 42:00Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 42:01Speaker 02

  And I've been doing that for like, eight, nine years at that point. And like, the quarterback comes in and he goes, you know, and you get to know him. And it always concerned me because it was kind of that, like, so much talent. And then you blame Cristobal, and like, they were run first. And then he gets to the NFL, and it's like, I just don't know if he's got that, like, you know, that like, what, like, Brady's an all time prick. So is Peyton Manning. So like, like, all these guys, like, you hear some of the real stories behind the scenes. It's not about the commercials and the front. Like, they're like, they're brutal to be around. And I didn't, I just wondered if Herbert would ever be like that. And now I'm starting to see a little bit of prick in him. And it's good. And I think Harbaugh's empowered him. And I think

• 42:46Speaker 02

  Harbaugh, it's not necessarily the mechanics, the footwork, the scheme. For him, it's, it's the way he, like, the confidence that you can't help have but have when you walk out of a room. And, and Harbaugh's crazy. Like, I have so many stories. But like, but when you're in that foxhole with him, you'll go to war. And so I

• 43:07Bill Simmons?

  You wonder if he like, if that he infected Herbert in a good way with some of that?

• 43:10Speaker 02

  In a good way. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on, off the field, all of it. So I'm hopeful, hopeful for him. But I still like Jordan Love a little bit more coming out. We'll see if how that all plays out. Yeah.

• 43:23Bill Simmons?

  So but now who would you rather have, Herbert or Jordan Love?

• 43:27Speaker 02

  Early this season, Herbert. And it takes a lot for me to say that. Up, up coming into this season, I was like, it took, it took a few years. And I'm not, I'm not fighting with Kuiper anymore. But I wanted to jump into the screen and be like, hey, Mel, what's up now? You know?

• 43:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, you had the neck up scale. I remember it was my podcast that Trent Dilfer came on like 15 years ago and told the Mark Sanchez story. I forget what draft for all the QBs in that draft. And he was like, if you were going somewhere and you had your car keys on you, and somebody was going to drive, you toss them to Sanchez. And that was his way of saying like

• 44:05Speaker 02

  That was Stafford's year.

• 44:07Bill Simmons?

  Was it Stafford's year? Okay.

• 44:08Speaker 02

  Yes. Yeah.

• 44:09Bill Simmons?

  So he made the case like Sanchez is a car keys guy. And I was always like, that's like a different scale, I think, the car keys. So you're saying Herbert was low on the car keys?

• 44:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 44:18Bill Simmons?

  Like you in, in Oregon, you wouldn't have been like, yo, here are the car keys, buddy.

• 44:22Speaker 02

  He was sitting in the third row of like, the, the Lincoln Navigator, you know, he like, he was, he was gonna get sit back there. But super talented, you know, always, yeah.

• 44:32Bill Simmons?

  I gotta say, I bet against them in week one and week three. And he just was Just breaking hearts if you had the other side, but it got to the point, especially in the Denver game where I started to feel like he was going to come back and make, make plays that play he made. Denver was killing him that whole game. I mean, I think they had 29 pressures. Yeah, they were all over him. That last touchdown he had was just an amazing play. I thought that was the, probably the best play of the season.

• 45:01Speaker 02

  And I never questioned his toughness. Like he'll, he takes hits and keeps coming back. So.

• 45:06Bill Simmons?

  No, the other one we should talk about, who I guess isn't a cut the shit guy anymore because he's had real playoff success, but I, you know, I thought golf was so good on Monday night. I don't know how bad Baltimore's defense is, but even that like, uh, that backbreaker throw he had to St. Brown on fourth and two, it was fucking perfect. And he just, he was playing with so much confidence. I was really impressed.

• 45:29Speaker 02

  And I love seeing him do it without Ben Johnson because I think a lot of people and myself included questioned like, how much is this is kind of manufactured? It fits perfectly. He's a play action guy. The run sets, all those things. And to see him doing it now, and then they, you know, the first, it was the first game, right? Where they came out and they struggled. It looked awful.

• 45:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, against Green Bay.

• 45:50Speaker 02

  Green Bay, yes. And then to see like, yeah, that was just a, that was a blip. Like we're, we're, we're back to what we are. Uh, like I really liked him in that draft and I had him as the first, first quarterback and, but I always kind of thought the ceiling was lower with him. And to see where he is and, and then when a, when a guy like McVeigh, who I think we all have a ton of respect for, kind of just discards him after having success and going to the Super Bowl. It's like something's up here, you know?

• 46:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 46:20Speaker 02

  And so to see him make that move and, and to pick himself up and to have the success he's had, I'm, I'm, I just pull for golf and I'm, I'm excited that he's doing what he's doing, but he is significantly better now than he was as a prospect coming out and, and he was in his, his early, you know, year or two.

• 46:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's funny. I felt prey to the, uh, their offensive line isn't the same. You can't lose coordinators like that. When I was thinking about them as a playoff team, how good were they going to be? Completely missed it. I'm usually good at this specific stupid thing.

• 46:55Speaker 02

  It's a very, it's a very

• 46:56Bill Simmons?

  Stupid. This is usually my domain.

• 46:58Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:59Bill Simmons?

  It's my stupid niche. But like, I totally missed the, them getting pissed off that everybody's like, yeah, with Ben Johnson out, your offense isn't going to be good anymore. I think that's like a real fuel for them. I think they really took it personally in the offseason and Dan Campbell specifically, who that should have been easy to guess, but

• 47:16Speaker 02

  Right.

• 47:17Bill Simmons?

  You could see it in Monday night with the way they played, how they finished the game, the stuff they said after. I just think they were like, fuck this. Like it's, yeah, Ben Johnson was a good coordinator, but we're really good. It wasn't about our offensive coordinator. Fuck off.

• 47:31Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 47:31Bill Simmons?

  And that's the energy they have, which I like.

• 47:33Speaker 02

  Project for all of them. Yeah. For Campbell, like Campbell getting involved in it. Like it's, it's pretty wild to see.

• 47:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Cause they take after him and his mentality, as great as the play calls were, but like some of those, the fourth and two was like not an easy call there at midfield with

• 47:49Speaker 02

  No.

• 47:50Bill Simmons?

  A minute 50 left. You knew they were going to go for it, but it wasn't like a no brainer.

• 47:55Speaker 02

  No, he's, he's, he's wild. He's crazy, but like it works the vast majority of the time and he, he trusts his group and his, his group trusts him. It's pretty cool to watch. Like he's, I don't know how many other guys in the NFL you would, if you were to kind of draft head coaches.

• 48:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:10Speaker 02

  And with a, with an organization like he'd be on the very short list, I think. Truly.

• 48:16Bill Simmons?

  He's, so I always rank, when I do my little player rankings, I rank the coaches and I downgraded them this year because they lost their, I had them above average, but not like top 10.

• 48:26Speaker 02

  Oh, I was worried. I was legitimately worried.

• 48:28Bill Simmons?

  But I think he's, this is a, a big, no, no, no, no, no. I'm, I'm really good and

• 48:33Speaker 02

  And I, and I know I'm getting old when

• 48:34Bill Simmons?

  Trust my infrastructure.

• 48:35Speaker 02

  When Kelvin Shepard now. Like I saw, when I was, I was like, oh, he's a coordinator. Like, he wasn't in my first two or three years of, of, of evaluating players. He was like, you're seven or eight. And I'm like, now he's a, he's a quarter, he's been in the league, how many years coaching? Like, it's a, yeah, it's, it's wild to see, but it, but it's pretty cool to see too. A guy who you saw as like a 19, 20 year old kid. You know, trying to make it to the NFL and now where he is and like, it's, it's just, it's wild.

• 49:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. That is one of the stages of getting older. Cause one of the first eye opening things is when somebody's son is playing like in baseball. And you're like, oh my God, Fernando Tatis Jr. What?

• 49:14Speaker 02

  Right, right.

• 49:15Bill Simmons?

  But when it's a grandchild, that's when you're like, uh, just put me out.

• 49:19Speaker 02

  I'm done.

• 49:19Bill Simmons?

  Put me in a fucking home. Yeah.

• 49:21Speaker 02

  I know. I'm worried that, that hasn't happened yet that I'm aware of. But, uh, but I'm, I'm worried about that. What do you think about Jackson Dart? I want to get your opinion.

• 49:31Bill Simmons?

  I, as you know, I, I eat up all the, uh, all the off fields. Him, how he, uh, how the team feels like he leads in the locker room and him in the meetings.

• 49:41Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 49:42Bill Simmons?

  Hard worker and like, he checks all those boxes. Got the charisma. I thought they should have gone to him last week. I thought that was the perfect game. Um, but I know Wilson had a big game against Dallas.

• 49:54Speaker 02

  Off of that, yeah.

• 49:55Bill Simmons?

  I, I get it, but he, but when Wilson sucked in the first part of that game, I just like, they brought Dart in. I was like, I wonder if they'll just keep him out there. And it was like, they didn't have the balls to do it. This is the right time though, cause they have an easy game next week. So Chargers will be hard, but I think you had to do it.

• 50:12Speaker 02

  We set the over under before the season started at week six, so it, it went under.

• 50:17Bill Simmons?

  Um, interesting.

• 50:18Speaker 02

  I had a fascinating conversation and I, one has nothing to do with the other here. I had zero to do with, with Jackson Dart, Giants, Dable, all that. But I'll never forget, I'm, I'm in Mobile, Alabama. It's the first day, practice hasn't even started yet. And, um, and we're, mentioned I are doing some interviews before with some general managers. And Dable comes in and grabs me and is like, hey, I'm just getting caught up on the quarterbacks. You know, the season just ended and coaches then get involved in the process. He's like, what do you, talk me through, who are you? And this is like a three, four minute conversation. He's like, who do you like? I've never told this full story before.

• 50:52Bill Simmons?

  Oh, great.

• 50:53Speaker 02

  Who, who do you like? What do you, uh, what do you think? And I'm like, and I went through, I was like, you know, I don't know that Shador is the right fit for you. I, you know, Cam Ward's probably going to be the first quarterback taken. I said, if I'm being honest, the guy I want to see with you, and I want you to have a chance to develop is Jackson Dart. And this was Jackson Dart was kind of considered like a second rounder coming in that week of the Senior Bowl. I was like, I was like, you're picking at five. I'm like, so like, it's not going to be at five, but like, and I don't, maybe he's there in this early second. I was like, maybe you guys have to move up for him. It was like, just totally just spitballing, right? And he hadn't got, he just

• 51:34Speaker 02

  came off the East West Shrine game and Shador was there, but Shador didn't play. And so he's like, all right. He's like, good to know. And he just walked away. And then like, we went through this whole process. And then it was like, Jackson, they might like Jackson Dart a little. So it was cool to see that he thought the same thing of Dart. And I'll never forget watching Dart's, like, it's 161 clip reel, where the PFF ultimate, where you marry it to our game tape. And you can break it up. Any throws from 10 to 20 yards, whatever you want. It's a versus pressure clip reel that I watched for all these top, top quarterbacks. Every year I do it. And the 161 plays for him is when I fell in love. And listen, he does not have a big time arm. And I think that's the thing that was kind of lost and all, like, he can't drive it down the field

• 52:19Speaker 02

  like Josh Allen, like Mahomes, like some of those guys. It's adequate, but he's got to be on time. But watching him in the pocket, as I'm watching Shador and Cam Ward and they're bailing and drifting and like extending and kind of lackadaisical. And then I watched Dart, every play is like urgency, climbing the pocket, sliding over, throwing down the field. And you know how like Josh Allen, when you watch him, it's almost like the chaos calms him down?

• 52:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:48Speaker 02

  That's how I felt. So I'm like, he's not as tall as, as, as Josh Allen. He's not as mobile. He certainly doesn't have the arm. And I'm hesitant to say it at the time, but I was like, screw it, you know? He reminds me so much of Josh Allen. Not the physical traits, but the way he carries himself, the way he is with pressure around him. And so I'm excited. Like, I know the team isn't very good. I know they're playing the Chargers week one, and maybe they can bounce back against the Saints with, with Dart in his second, second start. But I'm excited to see what happens here because I think this is a marriage that like is perfect for both of them.

• 53:22Bill Simmons?

  You know what's funny? The Giants might not be that bad. Cause that Chiefs game, I was thinking, I wish I had talked about it more on Sunday. That, that, that defensive touchdown that they should have had where the guy Mahomes stripped the guy back. But remember that?

• 53:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yep, yep, yep.

• 53:39Bill Simmons?

  I do wonder what happens if that happened, if they get that play and they score combined with Wilson just, you know, completely shit in the bed. He was just awful. But that, they do have a pass rush.

• 53:50Speaker 02

  They do have a pass rush.

• 53:51Bill Simmons?

  Neighbors is a problem.

• 53:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, and their receivers as a whole are not, like, they're, they're better than what we've seen.

• 53:58Bill Simmons?

  And Scataboo, you know, I don't know, I kind of like him. I wish the Pats had taken him.

• 54:02Speaker 02

  He's a maniac, man. I like him too.

• 54:03Bill Simmons?

  I don't, I could see in the Chargers, 3-0, smoke blown up, Herbert MVP. They're six, six and a half point favorites on the road. Everyone's going to have them in a tease. Like, to me, that's, it is an all time stay away. I would not bet on a, either team in this game. And who knows with Dart? The crowd will be into it right away when it happens. All right, we gotta do it.

• 54:26Bill Simmons?

  Actually, one more thing, quick. I had a, I said before the year, I thought Allen was the best QB in the league. And people got mad at me.

• 54:35Speaker 02

  Why'd they get mad at you?

• 54:36Bill Simmons?

  Because of the Mahomes, oh yeah. And I was like, I'm sorry, I, the heart wants, the heart wants. Allen has the best quarterback in football and he was last year. And I don't know why, just because Mahomes has the three titles and he's still like, if I have a fourth quarter, he's still probably the guy of my life depended, I would probably take. But Josh Allen, week to week, for a season, right now, the player he is, I don't see how you, you could say he's not 1A and Lamar's 1B, but I would have him over Lamar. But do you, you agree with that though?

• 55:11Speaker 02

  I, I actually would, and I'd like to disagree with you, it would be more fun. I, I always try to, you know, kind of like before, I try to ask myself, who do you want to face the least? Like, who's the biggest problem? And it was Mahomes for the, Mahomes for the longest time. And, and I'm not like, he'd be second on my list. But if you're asking like, who's the guy that like creates the most problems for me? If I'm a defensive coordinator, if I'm an opposing team? It's Allen. It's the, it's the physicality, it's the mobility, it's, it's the driving the ball down the field, the amount of field you have to cover. And look at, like, we all talk about the Chiefs and their lack of weapons and all that, but like, are the Bills that much better?

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  I mean, Curtis Samuel was a healthy scratch last week. You know, like, I, I don't know. I think James Cook is really good. He's certainly better than anyone on the Chiefs. But from a receiver standpoint, it's not like, yeah. And I just think he's the hardest one to play to back up your point. Like if it's third and five on, on the five yard line. You just had, you have to be like, he's probably going to do a QB draw and we probably can't stop it. We're going to have to keep more people in. And now he's got, but maybe he won't. Yeah. But maybe he won't, or maybe he'll wait. Maybe he'll roll around.

• 56:27Bill Simmons?

  I just think he's hard to play. And then the other piece of that is if you switched him with other people's situations, what would happen to that team? If you put him on Kansas City right now, I feel like he'd figure it out at least as good as Mahomes has tried to figure it out these last years. But I don't think, to me, Mahomes could absolutely take it back. Worthy's coming back this week. Rice comes back, I think, week seven.

• 56:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 56:51Bill Simmons?

  And there's a world where all of a sudden the Chiefs are fun and explosive, but the reality is they haven't been fun and explosive in two years.

• 56:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, more than two years now.

• 57:00Bill Simmons?

  Two plus years like that. I don't know. Um, okay. Let's talk Drake, man. Let's go. We'll end with the Pats. We'll end with our guy Drake. I thought the Pats played really well last week, except for the five turnovers. Right. 26 first downs. They were in all the right spots. They dominated the game. I think they had a, like, it was like 349 to 101 yards the last three quarters. I have no idea how they lost the game. It was one of the stupidest losses in recent Patriots history, but I, I just.

• 57:33Speaker 02

  Ball security, right?

• 57:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Drake does one dumb play a half, right?

• 57:37Speaker 02

  He does. And so, so like, you look at his passing efficiency, he's, he's actually further along than I thought he would be as a passer.

• 57:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 57:46Speaker 02

  Like, just, I. I even remember going like that Jets game live last year and watching before he got the head injury and it's like, man, he like the way he's carrying himself and the the mobility aspect like he's going to be just fine. I really like this is better than I thought in his rookie year. Um, and then he he's he has making, he has made a jump and they don't have great supporting cast around him, but it's good enough. And you're seeing that like he's going to keep getting, I think they're going to wind up being the most improved team in the National Football League from what we saw week one against the Raiders to what we see in like weeks 10 through 17. I really do.

• 58:23Bill Simmons?

  So I agree with you and I don't know if I'm being a homer, but I like genuinely believe this team has the pieces to be a good team as the year goes long.

• 58:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, a good team like.

• 58:34Bill Simmons?

  Good team, not like, could they sneak the nine and eight?

• 58:37Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, in the hunt at the end, but maybe they don't make it. Maybe they they make it and they get knocked out. But, but I think this this year's critical for May to continue kind of on this trajectory and start cutting out the maybe five, six plays a game that he'd like to have back. Maybe cut that down to one or two.

• 58:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 58:57Speaker 02

  And like you said, one turnover like, but like, start chipping away at that a little bit because the good is really good and their defense is is is significantly better than a year ago. And that like, I just, I, I like this team, but I know what it is, but it's huge. This first year with Vrabel is huge that they that they progress. And then next year, I think they become with another off season and with the draft and with a couple moves and free, like, I think they could then be be serious and someone you have to deal with.

• 59:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the being one and two after three is tough because I don't think the Raiders are very good, but the Pats just gave up a bunch of big plays. Gonzalez comes back this week, which I I think people have underrated how important he is.

• 59:43Speaker 02

  What did I read? I didn't, I didn't actually watch like Briers, Albert Briers said something like there wasn't a hamstring or what's the, what's the?

• 59:50Bill Simmons?

  Oh, really?

• 59:50Speaker 02

  Buzz. Yeah, there was something, look that up. There was something about where he's insinuating something.

• 59:57Bill Simmons?

  Beyond a hamstring or?

• 59:58Speaker 02

  I don't know. I thought, yeah, so just find that. We'll have to both find that out after.

• 1:00:02Bill Simmons?

  That Albert Brier always start in trouble. Jesus.

• 1:00:04Speaker 02

  But he's good, man.

• 1:00:08Bill Simmons?

  The I think I could see. So we're aligned. I could see like around week 10, week 11. I also think this team is going to have an upset over somebody at some point over the next four or five weeks. Because I do think they can rush a passer. They can move the ball. Some of the offensive stats are pretty good, like some of the advanced stats, you know, that don't really count the multiple turnovers per game.

• 1:00:34Speaker 02

  Well, that's the thing. Like when you take away those, those, that handful of plays every game, he's actually been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the, in the National Football League this year, which is wild.

• 1:00:44Bill Simmons?

  I just think once a game, he's gonna have a play where he's under siege and he tries to be hero and something dumb happens.

• 1:00:50Speaker 02

  Josh Allen did one a lot of games doing that forever until last year.

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:55Speaker 02

  Truly until last year. Last year was the first year where he actually like, oh, he's protecting the football. He's not making those mistakes. So it might be three, four years down the road before he completely like turns the corner on that.

• 1:01:08Bill Simmons?

  The more frustrating one was having booty in the corner and just not doing the little alley-oop lob pass to him and it's an easy touchdown. Instead, he's trying to fire it through somebody and it gets tipped. That's like three years from now, he's lofting that over. It's a touchdown.

• 1:01:22Speaker 02

  I think, I hope people understand, he is a pup. Like he has not played a ton of ball. You compare his starts come out of North Carolina and that system he was in to like what Jaden Daniels had and what some of these other guys have had. Bo Nix certainly. He's, he's learning on the job, which considering the results, pretty good, you know?

• 1:01:42Bill Simmons?

  Well, tell the freaking Boston media that.

• 1:01:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I don't think.

• 1:01:47Bill Simmons?

  Really reprehensible. I was there last week. I mean, that.

• 1:01:52Speaker 02

  It's like, everyone just got so spoiled. Yes. And, and it's, it's always been like, if it wasn't the Patriots, it was the Red Sox during our childhood. I mean, they just, they'll run people out of town if they're not careful. That's, that's the problem with, with people around here sometimes.

• 1:02:05Bill Simmons?

  Isn't he like Roman Anthony right away? Roman Anthony was immediately the best part of the Red Sox. Why isn't that Drake May?

• 1:02:11Speaker 02

  Everyone should be.

• 1:02:13Bill Simmons?

  Drake May, everyone's making excuses for them. They'll probably play this on one of the shows. Listen to these two shitheads making excuses for Drake May.

• 1:02:21Speaker 02

  No, there was like a whole segment on it. Yeah.

• 1:02:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Drake May is good. Anyway, all right, McShay. So every Saturday you do a live YouTube show with Mensch for your podcast.

• 1:02:33Speaker 02

  Outside of like doing the draft nationally, like at the site, like it might be my, like the, like most fun, my favorite project I've ever done is the Saturday night show. And it kind of, we just kind of stumbled upon it.

• 1:02:45Bill Simmons?

  So you're coming on a

• 1:02:47Speaker 02

  We break into the late in the games, like

• 1:02:49Bill Simmons?

  The Georgia game is going to be the one that

• 1:02:51Speaker 02

  And Penn State, Penn State Oregon. So we'll break in with like five, seven minutes left and we'll just react. I'm looking at the big screen over here and it's just a mess. And then we'll reset and we'll do a recap of the whole day. And this week we've got like nine, 10 games. We got to recap. We'll probably be on two in the morning this week. So it'll be fun. Eastern time. Yeah.

• 1:03:10Bill Simmons?

  We love having you. It's great to see you.

• 1:03:12Speaker 02

  It's been great, man. I love it here and I'm excited about what we're doing.

• 1:03:15Bill Simmons?

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• 1:05:26Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're going to talk NFL and Ryder Cup with our guy Joe House. Ringer 107, we're 5-10 through three weeks. It's a bad start. I'm not scared. I'm not rattled. This is the first week I've actually liked this week for. Listen, it lit a fire under me. I gotta be honest. I feel a little like the Atlanta Falcons after that Panthers 30-0 shutout. We've had bad luck. Our worst pick, actually ironically, was the Falcons, which we had in a parlay, and they lost 30-0 to the worst team in the league, Carolina, who we're about to talk about. But House, am I right to say week four looks delightful? Looks enticing? It's the first time I feel like, oh, okay, I feel like I have a handle. I like some of the matchups. Let's go.

• 1:06:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, it does set up with some semblance of normalcy, I guess I'll say, because I think we've gotten the overreaction out of our system now.

• 1:06:22Bill Simmons?

  And the underreactions.

• 1:06:23Speaker 01

  But you're both of those, the overs and the unders. I mean, the Falcons fired their wide receiver coach, and they're working on better communication with Michael Pennix. What are you and I going to do? Don't fire me. Who can we fire?

• 1:06:38Bill Simmons?

  They also moved their OC. From

• 1:06:41Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:06:41Bill Simmons?

  Booth down to the booth down to the field, which is another one that sometimes it's a movie that deck chairs in the Titanic situation, but even if you look at the stats from that game, it's kind of hard. That did not seem like a 30 to nothing game. If you just examine all of what happened and I and Carolina is going to come up later because I still think they stink and I'm willing to make our money back. Here are the stayaways for this week. I want to zoom through this a little bit because we got a lot of Ryder Cup to talk to Ryder Cup on the East Coast.

• 1:07:09Speaker 01

  Great.

• 1:07:10Bill Simmons?

  Uh, I have a lot of thoughts. Stayaways Rams Colts.

• 1:07:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm staying away unless you like it. I don't know what to make of this Colts team. They feel like the rabbit team this year. It's Rams three and a half at home. I don't like the line. If I had to be, if it was Rams two and a half, I'd be intrigued. Three and a half.

• 1:07:28Speaker 01

  Sure. It's a, it's a fair number. Um, we, uh, are going to, I think, transact on, um, another team involved in next week's Thursday night game, which is to me, the most compelling reason to stay away from this Rams Colts game.

• 1:07:45Bill Simmons?

  What is

• 1:07:45Speaker 01

  The Rams go from this game to Thursday night hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

• 1:07:51Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:07:51Speaker 01

  So short work week for both the Rams and the 49ers. And that's a crucial matchup for those teams. So I like the idea of staying away. I think it's a fair number. Three and a half seems fine with me. Good, good test for the Colts. This is a good referendum on who these Colts are.

• 1:08:08Bill Simmons?

  House, remember when we took the Niners and bring our 107 minus two and a half? And then Mac Jones, they were driving and it seemed like we had it.

• 1:08:17Speaker 01

  One and a half.

• 1:08:18Bill Simmons?

  Minus one.

• 1:08:18Speaker 01

  It was minus one and a half.

• 1:08:19Bill Simmons?

  And then Mac Jones threw a terrible pick and then they'd scored and then he took a safety in the end zone. They're down two and then Mac Jones then drove them down so they could win by one and we didn't win.

• 1:08:30Speaker 01

  We'll have a chance to talk about the Niners in context, but they have still abominable special teams. That safety by Mac Jones was a special teams, uh, uh, safety because the dumb ass punt return guy field of the punt at the goddamn two yard line.

• 1:08:48Bill Simmons?

  It's like a 65 yard punt. He's like, let me, let me get field position right here. All right.

• 1:08:52Speaker 01

  Get the, just get out of the way. Just let the ball bounce in the end zone, dopey.

• 1:08:57Bill Simmons?

  Next day away is Bill Saints, which is, uh, it's over two touchdowns. So it'll probably land, who knows, somewhere in the 16 to 17 range. The Saints offense is just decent enough that, uh, there's backdoor stuff. Like you look at the advanced stats, like they're not reprehensible. They can move the ball. If it's like 31 to 10, they could get one late.

• 1:09:19Speaker 01

  If you had, if you had come in on fire for the Saints, I would have gone along with it. I don't, I don't hate this spot for them.

• 1:09:25Bill Simmons?

  Not gonna do that.

• 1:09:26Speaker 01

  I'm not gonna bet on them, but I don't hate the spot.

• 1:09:29Bill Simmons?

  Dolphins, Jets, a complete stay away. Uh, there's a mild case for the Jets, just because they really could be two and one. But there's also a mild case for the Dolphins, cause they're 0-3. And if they're ever gonna win a game, this would be it. And they showed some bite and they're on 10 days rest. I don't want to find out, uh, Justin Fields versus Tua. It's a no thanks across the board.

• 1:09:51Speaker 01

  That's fine. That's a fine Monday night game. Just sit back and enjoy, don't have anything on it.

• 1:09:56Bill Simmons?

  And then last but not least, the, uh, the Broncos laying seven and a half to Cincinnati.

• 1:10:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:10:04Bill Simmons?

  And, um, Bo Nix has just been awful. He's awful, cost us money. He's made me scared for my futures. PFF ranked him, I think the 35th out of 36 quarterbacks who have played football this year.

• 1:10:18Speaker 01

  Not good.

• 1:10:20Bill Simmons?

  I really want to put them in a parlay or talk you into some sort of tease on Sunday. And I'm just, I can't until we see Bo Nix have three hours that look half decent. So we're gonna stay away from that.

• 1:10:31Speaker 01

  I have put the Broncos in a tease, um, but no way I'm laying seven and a half. That's a preposterous number, even though the Bengals really bangled the hell out of that Vikings game. I mean, they just bangled that game.

• 1:10:43Bill Simmons?

  A guy in the Vikings scored two touchdowns who wasn't on offense.

• 1:10:47Speaker 01

  True story. He did that.

• 1:10:49Bill Simmons?

  A defensive guy. He had two touchdowns. If you had him in fantasy, it would have been like a huge day. All right, two games that I think are stayaways. But I'll let you, if you got super excited about it. I'm willing to have the convo Eagles minus three and a half over the Bucks. It's in Tampa. No Mike Evans for Tampa. It's time for his annual hamstring injury.

• 1:11:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:11:12Bill Simmons?

  It's like, uh, we have, we have, uh, Halloween on October 31st. We have Thanksgiving. We have Mike Evans with a hamstring. No Godwin, probably. Werfs might play. I just, I just want to stay away unless you, there's something you'd like here.

• 1:11:28Speaker 01

  No, if, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had better health in any of those areas. I mean, Baker continues to be banged up, uh, and you know, always halfway through each game, we see him with a limp. If they had just a tiny bit better health luck, I would be all over the Bucks. They have been tremendous in this spot against the Eagles year over year. Ask any Eagles fan, Tampa plays them super tough. They always, for whatever reason, because of the way the schedules turn out and the way that Tampa and the Eagles have fared well.

• 1:11:58Bill Simmons?

  It feels like they play a lot. It's almost like they're, yeah.

• 1:12:01Speaker 01

  That's right. Uh, it's a stay away. I agree with you.

• 1:12:05Bill Simmons?

  You know, I was doing a bunch of homework, trying to get our mojo back this week. And I was giving, I was assigning teams' records, not win-loss records, but actual win, actual loss. And then just the number next to it, which meant it's an either or game.

• 1:12:21Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:12:21Bill Simmons?

  Tampa's actual record is 0-0 and 3.

• 1:12:24Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:12:25Bill Simmons?

  They don't have a convincing win yet.

• 1:12:27Speaker 01

  There is, uh, some stat out there, um, like the first team in modern history to win, you know, on the last drive or second to last drive, some, some crazy number like that.

• 1:12:38Bill Simmons?

  And Philly, Philly is 2-0 and 1. All right. We're staying away from that. And I don't want to stay away from Chiefs Ravens.

• 1:12:47Speaker 01

  I don't want to bet on it.

• 1:12:50Bill Simmons?

  But I also don't want to bet on it. Um, Chiefs plus two and a half at home against the Ravens.

• 1:12:55Speaker 01

  What's your lean on that? I'm interested in your lean.

• 1:12:57Bill Simmons?

  My lean is the Chiefs. They're begging you to take the Chiefs. I think that Ravens run defense, um, It's just gonna be bad for the whole year.

• 1:13:07Speaker 01

  So you're, you're right, but who the hell runs the football for the Kansas City Chiefs?

• 1:13:11Bill Simmons?

  Right? And then from an explosive play standpoint, it just feels like Baltimore can at least put up points against anybody and they're going to be in the 25 to 30 range, just because that seems to be what they do. And then can the Chiefs get there? And it just, KC is just mediocre in every single offensive category. Like, give me anything. Give me yards per play. But what's weird is I think they still have the eighth ranked offense by EPA and then every other stat is in the middle. Baltimore's defense, 30th rush, 31st pass, 25th yards per pass, 30th first down. They're both one and two. Obviously, one of these teams are going to be one and three.

• 1:13:50Bill Simmons?

  My lean is the Chiefs and I feel like on Sunday, I'm going to talk myself into a tease with them getting eight and a half is where this is going to land.

• 1:13:59Speaker 01

  I actually kind of like that. That's not, I mean, but let's compare notes on Sunday. The thing with the Ravens defense is they cannot put pressure on anybody because of injuries to Van Noy and Matibuke up the middle. And we saw that. We saw Jared Goff just enjoying the comfort and peace of a, of a quiet pocket and he absolutely picked that Ravens defense apart. I think ultimately that Ravens defense will be fine. And we kind of went through a version of this last year. If, if they can get the restored health, but I think at this stage of the season, it makes sense to stay away. Let's just enjoy the game.

• 1:14:34Bill Simmons?

  One thing I was thinking with that, so the Ravens, Ravens defense died in that Bills game in the second half, right? And it died in the second half of that Lions game. And I was wondering if there was a Cousin South special maybe looming.

• 1:14:52Speaker 01

  Well, the problem is the Lions won the first half and won, or was it tied or did they, they were up at the?

• 1:14:59Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm saying for this week.

• 1:15:00Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 1:15:01Bill Simmons?

  Like the Ravens take a lead and then the Chiefs come back. So Ravens would first half, Chiefs second half and.

• 1:15:07Speaker 01

  It fits every sort of character of these two teams, the identity of these two teams over the years. Like the Ravens are historically great in the first half of of games. And the Chiefs have been a second half dynamo, just like, you know, that's the Patrick Mahomes story. So if you want to do that, I'm not against it.

• 1:15:24Bill Simmons?

  What I like about this, if you're gonna take the Chiefs, is the Ravens could go 1-3, and then immediately Texans, home, Rams, home, bye week, Bears, home, at Dolphins, at Vikings, at Browns, home Jets, home Bengals, home Steelers, at Bengals, Pats, at Green Bay, week 17. Like, they might, this might be the last game they lose for three months.

• 1:15:44Speaker 01

  And we've seen them do this.

• 1:15:45Bill Simmons?

  We've seen them do this.

• 1:15:46Speaker 01

  Eight and five last year, and then they didn't lose any more games. Just finished out the season with a, with a nice run.

• 1:15:53Bill Simmons?

  Slightly in Chiefs. I also wonder, the Giants might be a little better than maybe we think. And maybe that's why the Chiefs, even though it was a little ugly last year, they still did win 22 to 9. But me, I just feel like after this game, we're gonna be like, oh, okay. And we'll know a little more. I'm leaning Chiefs.

• 1:16:13Speaker 01

  You know, that Baltimore to win the first half, Kansas City to win the game?

• 1:16:17Bill Simmons?

  What is it?

• 1:16:18Speaker 01

  Plus 850.

• 1:16:20Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:16:21Speaker 01

  Would be worth a couple, couple, couple dollars.

• 1:16:24Bill Simmons?

  Make for like, make do a sprinkling. Okay.

• 1:16:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:16:27Bill Simmons?

  Um, the possibles.

• 1:16:32Bill Simmons?

  Packers at Dallas.

• 1:16:35Bill Simmons?

  Minus six and a half, the money line could go in any parlay we want to do. Green Bay's a little banged up. Detroit's defense might be the worst defense in the league. It's, I'm sorry, Dallas's defense. It's in the running for worst defense. And then Green Bay's offensive stats, even after that weird Browns game, when they went against that juggernaut, they're still 7th pass, 3rd run, 2nd yards per play. And it just feels like they're gonna light them up, the Parsons thing. And yet, something scares me about this straight up. So we'll have to talk parlay in it. No C.D. Lamb. Dallas looked dead after C.D. Lamb. Like, it just seemed like they had no chance whatsoever. There's no case for Dallas, in my opinion, but I didn't like how the Packers looked last week either.

• 1:17:19Speaker 01

  That's the only thing that is worrisome is that there's no case for Dallas, and I can't imagine anybody out there betting on Dallas. They're like, when we sit down and wake up, I mean, when we wake up Sunday morning, the splits are going to be like 85% of the tickets on, on the Packers. And this number has just held tight at six and a half, like no movement at all.

• 1:17:42Speaker 01

  It's six and a half, so.

• 1:17:44Bill Simmons?

  I mean, everyone got excited about Caleb last week, and rightfully so. He made some good throws. But then if you watch the highlights, these guys are wide open. They're open by like five, six, seven yards every pass.

• 1:17:57Speaker 01

  He had hours to throw.

• 1:17:59Bill Simmons?

  And he had hours to throw.

• 1:18:00Speaker 01

  That is by far the most comfortable he's been as a professional in terms of, you know, dropping back.

• 1:18:07Bill Simmons?

  Okay, starting to get a little more serious here. Texans, Titans. Texans minus seven and a half. Only as a parlay here.

• 1:18:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:16Bill Simmons?

  It's a kitchen sink game for them. They're 0-3. Season might be over anyway, but in the AFC South, who knows? And they're playing this Tennessee team. Pick a stat on offense. They're 32nd. Like, just name a stat. I'll be like, oh, no, actually, they're only 30th in that one. They stink.

• 1:18:36Bill Simmons?

  And the Callahan tire fires, which you nicknamed the Dumbo two weeks ago, it could be the last one for him. Houston's defense is probably at least a top 10 defense. Gave up 14 to the Rams, 20 to the Bucks, 19 to the Jags.

• 1:18:50Speaker 01

  They're good. It's a good defense. There's nothing wrong with the Houston defense.

• 1:18:54Bill Simmons?

  This is a how many points are they going to score game for Tennessee?

• 1:18:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I don't want to mess with the number. Let's just take the Texans on the money line and put them in a parlay. They're one leg. I like that leg quite a bit.

• 1:19:07Bill Simmons?

  Browns, Lions. Browns getting nine and a half, and I would be all over this, except their left tackle, DeJuan Jones, is out, and their right tackle, Conklin, is questionable, and they can't really score to begin with. But man, the defensive stats for them. What they did to Green Bay last week and just what they've been doing in general, they're first in rush, fourth in pass, first in yards per play, third in sacks, first in first down. Baltimore ended up with 41 on them, but that was a weird game. It wasn't a 41-point offensive game. And then Detroit has a really good offense too, but Detroit coming off Monday night, just everybody blowing smoke and Dan Campbell proving that it wasn't all about Ben Johnson. They just have this awesome win and it just, it has all the makings of a stay away and that's what I think we should do.

• 1:19:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't disagree. I think that the number is crazy. Nine and a half is an insane number.

• 1:19:59Bill Simmons?

  It's way too high.

• 1:20:00Speaker 01

  Yes, exactly. Three points, three full points too high. You cannot say enough about this Cleveland Browns defense. You gotta give it up to Jim Schwartz. They had the first, they figured out what they did wrong last year and the pass rush is back and it's ferocious. They had played Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love and they get pressure on all those dudes. The only reason why we're not going to fire on this is because we can't bet on Joe Flacco on the road, I don't think, to get any, any points whatsoever.

• 1:20:35Bill Simmons?

  I like Judkins too.

• 1:20:37Speaker 01

  Me too. And they established the run pretty effectively, but that's what the injury to the offensive lineman is a bummer in that respect.

• 1:20:46Bill Simmons?

  They made a great trade. The Travis Hunter trade was awesome and they ended up with Graham, who, I don't know, their front four is just really good. I was, I was really, really impressed by them in that Green Bay game because we had, I can't remember how I bet Green Bay, but I was nervous in the second quarter because it was clear their defense was disrupting everything, everything Green Bay wanted to do. Giants Chargers is another one. That looks like a let's be careful out there. Giants six and a half point underdogs at home. Jackson Dart starting, Andrew Thomas back in at left tackle. And that Chargers O line, no Slater, who's out all year, but then Beckton looks like he's out. Their center, Bozeman, might be out.

• 1:21:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:21:29Bill Simmons?

  They're riding high off these three wins and a lot of Herbert love, but I thought they had a ton of trouble protecting Herbert last week. And this Giants defense, if the crowd's fired up about Dart, that this feels upsetish to me. The Giants defense is 28th pass, 31st rush. And the Chargers are second in pass. But yet their offensive line worries me. It feels like a stay away, but I do like the Giants.

• 1:21:58Speaker 01

  I don't want to bet on a rookie quarterback in his first start.

• 1:22:02Bill Simmons?

  And that's why we're not doing it because we're five and 10. We can't do a rookie QB.

• 1:22:05Speaker 01

  I mean, Harbaugh's 4-0 against the spread against rookie quarterbacks.

• 1:22:10Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:22:10Speaker 01

  In, you know.

• 1:22:11Bill Simmons?

  Just throw a stat at me.

• 1:22:12Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, if I was, I, because I was considering, you know, do we do something with the Chargers? I, I did the teaser that America should not do, which is the Chargers down to one and a half and the Green Bay Packers down to one and a half.

• 1:22:25Bill Simmons?

  I did it. Oh, Jesus.

• 1:22:27Speaker 01

  Or a half, whatever it is. I did that. I did. I told America not to do that on Wednesday's show. Just because I did it. That was my public service announcement to everybody. Do not tease the Chargers and the Green Bay Packers together. Don't do it.

• 1:22:43Bill Simmons?

  That was like the bad idea jeans commercial. That tease.

• 1:22:48Speaker 01

  I agree.

• 1:22:49Bill Simmons?

  So she asked me to have unprotected sex and I said, when's the next time I'm going to be in Haiti?

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  Remember that commercial where they're all the bad idea? It was one of the classics.

• 1:23:01Speaker 01

  Bad idea jeans.

• 1:23:02Bill Simmons?

  I think that tease is a bad idea. Okay, the likelies.

• 1:23:08Bill Simmons?

  I have five. Tell me, I'll just, I'll say what they are and then we can go to them. Raiders, Bears, Jags, Niners, Falcons, Washington, Vikings, Steelers, Pats, Panthers. Is there anything we don't have out of those five that you liked?

• 1:23:23Speaker 01

  No, no, those. So when you sent me the notes, some people, some people accuse us of being, you know, I'm too agreeable, but like the whole point of this is us collaborating and trying to find games.

• 1:23:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we're, we're.

• 1:23:34Speaker 01

  That work. We're trying.

• 1:23:35Bill Simmons?

  Beforehand.

• 1:23:36Speaker 01

  We're trying, we're trying.

• 1:23:37Bill Simmons?

  Agreeable. The fuck?

• 1:23:38Speaker 01

  I mean, like.

• 1:23:39Bill Simmons?

  We argue all the time.

• 1:23:41Speaker 01

  I did talk you out of week one, the Seattle Seahawks, you know, against the 49ers. You, you had that on the list.

• 1:23:48Bill Simmons?

  The problem is we've been agreeing on bad picks. We're five and 10.

• 1:23:51Speaker 01

  Bad picks. We're bad at this.

• 1:23:53Bill Simmons?

  I almost want to guarantee a four and one this week, but I'm not going to put that.

• 1:23:56Speaker 01

  Don't you, don't do that. Don't. I, I just want to say, I have hit my same game parlay each of the first three weeks. On the Sunday pregame show and I am two and one on the Sunday pregame show with my best bet. So.

• 1:24:09Bill Simmons?

  Good. We'll bring some of that magic here.

• 1:24:11Speaker 01

  I'm trying, I'm trying. Let's see. Here I am.

• 1:24:13Bill Simmons?

  Raiders, Bears, Raiders by one and a half, Bears coming off a, we looked way too good last week game. Raiders coming off a, we didn't look good at all game. So there's a double zag that I like. It's a loser leaves town match. I think if either of these teams lose, I'd find it hard to believe they're going to make the playoffs. The Raiders going one and three, like they're going to go eight and five down the stretch. Like they're just going to be two up and down. They're pretty healthy though. And apparently Bowers is fine. I didn't, I didn't love the way he looked.

• 1:24:43Speaker 01

  He didn't look good against Washington.

• 1:24:45Bill Simmons?

  The Bears had this miracle game where they play this really limited Dallas team and Liam gets hurt in the first quarter. So it's not like, I think that could have been a shootout and it just, that got taken off the table. They have a bunch of secondary injuries and all the defensive stats for them are really bad, including they're last in the league in yards per play allowed. And Vegas' offense, I don't know.

• 1:25:11Speaker 01

  So he put a pin in this one because I'm not all the way there yet. And the reason I'm not all the way there yet is because we had two consecutive crappy Gino games. Now we anticipated that they were going to have, I did at least, I said on this show and other shows that I thought that it was a bad spot for the Raiders coming off of that Monday night football game against the Chargers in the previous week, just a tough spot for them coming east out here for a one o'clock game. The compelling reason to invest in the Raiders here is because he's back home in that dome. His splits in the dome are so much better. And you know, they are showing something in terms of offensive potency. That guy Tucker

• 1:25:56Speaker 01

  was unstoppable. He had two giant plays. Yeah.

• 1:26:01Bill Simmons?

  Listen, this is pro sports. You have a shitty week. You recommit during the week in practice. We got to get and this is why we do this with the season. Just we go down, we go up. This feels like a Bears come back down Raiders go back up. I like the price. I think this line should be two and a half.

• 1:26:22Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:26:23Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why. How do the Bears only, how is this in the Tic Tac Zone? The Bears fucking suck on defense. And they're on the road. Why do we think they're, so anyway, I feel like we're getting a free point. And if the Raiders lose this game, their season's over. Next one, feel more strongly about this one. Jags plus three and a half.

• 1:26:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:26:43Bill Simmons?

  Against San Francisco. No Bosa, no Kittle, Pierce, all and Jennings questionable. The Niners have had just a slew of injuries already. We're either going to have a Mac Jones with a sprained PCL or a slightly injured Brock Purdy at starting QB. Scary special teams as always for San Francisco. And this is, the cousin and I talked about this on Sunday. I like how Jacksonville looks. I think their defense, I think they have a pass rush. I think they're causing turnovers. Like they're doing shit.

• 1:27:11Speaker 01

  You are correct.

• 1:27:12Bill Simmons?

  And offensively, plays are there. Guys are open. Like they're just not, stupid shit's happening with them. But that, they remind me a little of the Pats where like you can see the potential of what's there.

• 1:27:25Bill Simmons?

  I just think they're, I kind of like the Jags. I gotta be honest. I mean, just in general, not even this game. I just kind of like them.

• 1:27:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, I agree with you. I like the spot and I like the number and I like the Jags to win this game outright. Because I think the Niners, this is the, the, the angle that I'm particularly invested in is, is them looking at their division game on Thursday against the Rams and saying, look at, we, we have to come into that Thursday night game as healthy as possible. And so if, if Purdy for, in, in any way, shape or form shows, you know, distress or, you know, he's not moving well, get him out. There's, it just doesn't make any sense to, to, you know, rush him in and, and, and push this one all the way through.

• 1:28:13Speaker 01

  And you hit on the, the key. I think on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has like a, has a spine. They have an identity. The thing that they keep doing is self sabotaging. They need their goddamn receivers to catch the goddamn balls when Trevor Lawrence hits them in the hands. And Trevor Lawrence needs to do better at hitting them in the hands. His accuracy is still in the, in the bottom third of the league. But they lead the league in terms of drops, uh, drop percentage and so forth. So, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm.

• 1:28:43Bill Simmons?

  How about this? They should be three and O. They beat the Panthers. They completely gave away that Bengals game that they should have won, and I don't know how they didn't win. And then they beat the Texans last week, but, uh, I really like that one. I think the line's too high too. I think they, I think it should be one and a half or two and a half.

• 1:29:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, we're, we're in agreement. The only thing that you would say worry about is, are Jacksonville's defense numbers somewhat illusory? Because they've played offenses that are, that are, you know, not, not top notch.

• 1:29:11Bill Simmons?

  Joe Burrow getting hurt.

• 1:29:13Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:29:14Bill Simmons?

  CJ Stroud or whatever is in a team with a terrible offensive line, but all right. Next one Falcons, Washington Falcons plus one and a half. Atlanta coming off a horrible loss and Washington coming off an easy win. The big thing here is your team is just banged up.

• 1:29:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:29:30Bill Simmons?

  No McLaurin, it looks like you a bunch of defensive injuries. Daniels might play, might not play. Eckler's already gone. You have a bunch of just no name receivers. I mean, running backs and you know, Atlanta did the, the stats are pretty with three games is like enough of a sample size. The stats are pretty good with them. They're first against the pass, fourth yards per play, second first downs allowed. I think there's something there with them. The question for me is why did it look like you guys had never had a practice on offense last week? And did you fix that? I'm going to bet on the talent. I think they can win the game outright.

• 1:30:06Speaker 01

  Well, the, the difference is Penix on the road versus Penix at home and all the communications issues, all of the things that we cited at the top of the show about things that Atlanta did to figure out how to, how to make the communication work better, bringing the coach down, the offensive coordinator down to the field, fire the wide receivers coach, you know, we, we gotta get the plays in quicker. We have to have Penix. All of that should work better at home and they have shown us a kind of class. What they did going into Minnesota and being able to establish the run and they, they just ran the ball with, with the two-headed monster of Algier and Bijon Robinson. And you know, they, they gotta get Penix throwing the ball to those receivers in, in the end zone. I think they're committed to it.

• 1:30:51Speaker 01

  This is the game in which they're going to possibly have some success. It hurts my feelings to go against Washington, but man, that secondary is so depleted. You know, across the board, so the spot is correct.

• 1:31:07Bill Simmons?

  And that's counting Lattimore who's still playing.

• 1:31:09Speaker 01

  Oh my God. Fake thugs, fake thug.

• 1:31:13Bill Simmons?

  Falcons have the Bucks beat. This is one of our ringer 107 losses and they fucking blow it down the stretch. That was week one.

• 1:31:21Speaker 01

  Multiple ways, they blew it multiple ways.

• 1:31:23Bill Simmons?

  Week two. They spanked the Vikings.

• 1:31:26Speaker 01

  Spanked them.

• 1:31:28Bill Simmons?

  Week three, really stupid Panthers game. They fall behind seven, nothing. They just stopped running the ball. I don't know what they were doing. And I think they bounced back. I really like the Falcons plus one and a half. Um, let's go to Ireland.

• 1:31:42Speaker 01

  Also, there's a nice angle there also for teams that get blown out by 30 or more.

• 1:31:48Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah, I saw that stat.

• 1:31:50Speaker 01

  They cover like nearly 70% of the time the next, next game.

• 1:31:54Bill Simmons?

  How about this angle? Conspiracy Bill. Looking at week six Bills, Monday Night Football. So Atlanta plays the commanders and then there's a week five bye and then the Bills. I think the league wants the Falcons to be two and two heading into that Bills game. It's a little more fun coming off a win.

• 1:32:13Speaker 01

  Okay, fine.

• 1:32:14Bill Simmons?

  Get some calls. Uh, Vikings Steelers in Ireland.

• 1:32:20Bill Simmons?

  I, it kind of frightens me how like, how much I like the Vikings in this game because their quarterback's gonna be Carson Wentz. But I love the Vikings. And I think part of it is because I watched that entire Steelers Pats game every play and I just do not think the Steelers are good. And I can't believe the Pats lost that game. I cannot get over it.

• 1:32:39Speaker 01

  I started preparing myself after I listened to you and Cousin Sal on Sunday night.

• 1:32:44Bill Simmons?

  For this pick?

• 1:32:44Speaker 01

  That you were, yes, like it violates all your rules. We're, it's a Sunday night, it's a Sunday morning game. It's the first game in, in, in Europe. It, uh,

• 1:32:54Bill Simmons?

  One of, one of my first rules is don't bet on this game. Do not bet on the game when you wake up and an hour's already gone by and you're down to nothing.

• 1:33:03Speaker 01

  What, and then there's a Carson Wentz rule. I mean, it's, there's some amazing rules that we are going to violate because I think that the template that they showed us last week against the Bengals is eminently repeatable against Pittsburgh. Super repeatable template. That defense blitzing Aaron Rodgers into oblivion. He is the worst quarterback in the NFL under pressure. His completion rate, his accuracy, everything goes down. He is immobile and they do not have any safety valves on that offense to let him get the ball out and, and protect him. They're cooked. I like the Vikings.

• 1:33:45Bill Simmons?

  Um, I said to Sal last week, I really only feel like Rogers can do two things anymore. Like the gets the snap, quick throw, like bubble screen or right over the, and he has that. And he has that three steps back, quick throw, back shoulder play and nothing else. I, I just didn't see one other thing that he could do. Here's the other thing, Minnesota's run defense isn't good, which might be a problem certain weeks, right? It was a problem against Atlanta. It's not gonna be a problem against Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh's running game is bad.

• 1:34:17Speaker 01

  Bad.

• 1:34:18Bill Simmons?

  Um, Rogers bad against pressure, Minnesota loves pressure. Pittsburgh should be 0-3. They should have lost the Jets game and they should have lost the Patriots game. And I don't, I just don't think they're good. Here's another thing. Jordan Addison back for Minnesota.

• 1:34:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, I love that.

• 1:34:35Bill Simmons?

  This happens right around week three, week four, week five, guys pop back in and you kind of forget. It's like, oh, your left tackle who is suspended for steroids. Now he's back. I forgot. Addison being back for them is a big deal because um, now you can actually throw the ball on Pittsburgh, which the Pats did. Pats had 26 first downs in that game.

• 1:34:54Speaker 01

  Let me just say this out loud so that we've, we're acknowledging it.

• 1:34:58Bill Simmons?

  When we wake up. Carson Wentz is the quarterback of the Vikings.

• 1:35:00Speaker 01

  We wake up Sunday morning.

• 1:35:01Bill Simmons?

  6:30 in the morning, Pacific time.

• 1:35:03Speaker 01

  We wake up in the morning and we turn the game on and Pittsburgh is up 17 to three. And you're like, what the fuck is going on here?

• 1:35:11Bill Simmons?

  Listen, it's why I'm gonna wake up at six in the morning. So I don't have to have that experience. I want to watch every play live.

• 1:35:20Bill Simmons?

  All bets are off in Ireland. You just never know.

• 1:35:23Speaker 01

  The other thing, I, I mean Pittsburgh's defense, uh, super gettable. I mean, I, I'm not saying that Wentz is the guy that's going to get them, but uh, I do like Jordan Mason. I like what he showed us and he didn't have to play the fourth quarter, uh, against the Bengals.

• 1:35:40Bill Simmons?

  Heisman still after the Steelers. Another angle I like. Craig Horlback and the fantasy football guys are gonna be there.

• 1:35:46Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 1:35:47Bill Simmons?

  Big Steelers fan, uh, about to shed some Irish tears.

• 1:35:53Bill Simmons?

  Watching Aaron Rodgers backpedaling for his life for three hours.

• 1:35:56Speaker 01

  You can drown those tears in a delicious Guinness and a Jameson. That's what I recommend. Jameson and a little Jameson and then a little Guinness.

• 1:36:03Bill Simmons?

  Last one, Pats minus five and a half or minus 250 against the Panthers. There's just abysmal stats for the Panthers here about uh dogs after a money line win the next week is really bad. Panthers hurt on the offensive line. Gonzalez is going to be back for the Patriots on defense. Carolina's offense 30th yards per play. Their defense 32nd in sacks, 32nd in QB hits, 32nd in hurries and 31st in tackles. Oh, that sounds wonderful. The Pats offense, eighth in first downs? Seventh passing?

• 1:36:38Speaker 01

  They moved the ball up and down the goddamn football field against the Steelers. Here's the thing, let me just say this also, another thing I'm going to say out loud for us to hear. We're not going to be pussies. We're going to lay the fucking number. We're going to go ahead and lay the five and a half. We're going to do it. We're grown ass. Man, we're trying to win picks on this show. The number's five and a half. It's to me a little light. If it was seven, I might like tap the brakes. But there's nothing instructive about the way that Carolina handled Atlanta. There are no takeaways from that game that inform what's going to happen in this game. The inside rush ability, the Patriots have a pass rush. It is a good pass rush.

• 1:37:20Speaker 01

  Barmore and Milton, uh, what's Milton's last name? Mr. Milton?

• 1:37:24Bill Simmons?

  Milton Williams.

• 1:37:25Speaker 01

  Milton Williams.

• 1:37:26Bill Simmons?

  Were you just about to Doris Burke me and call him Mr. Milton?

• 1:37:31Speaker 01

  I got that close. I got that close. Uh, I love that idea of them getting Bryce Young off his spot. Get that man moving and then good things happen in terms of turnovers. I want to go ahead and lay the five and a half.

• 1:37:46Bill Simmons?

  If they can't win by seven against this Panthers team.

• 1:37:52Bill Simmons?

  This season's gonna be awful, but I really think the Pats, I had McShay on before you. McShay was saying the same thing, like he thinks the Pats by like week 10, week 11, there's gonna be something there. I really think there's something here with the Pats. And I thought they should have won last week.

• 1:38:06Speaker 03

  Exactly. The other thing is to that point, the handicap for last week was correct. It was a good handicap on the Patriots. They just turned the fucking ball over five times. Let's just not do that this week.

• 1:38:17Bill Simmons?

  We fumbled on the goal line and we threw a goal line tipped pick.

• 1:38:21Speaker 03

  Let's not do that.

• 1:38:24Bill Simmons?

  All right. So it sounds like we have five picks that we like. No parlays this week for us? We're just doing five straight ups? Because the fifth one right now would be Raiders, Bears. And we could run from that one and do-

• 1:38:39Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's the one we put a pin in. I'd rather just do a money line parlay.

• 1:38:44Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So you want to do like a, like a Packers Texans money line parlay?

• 1:38:49Speaker 03

  That's the one. That's, that's the, let's go to Texas where the Texans are, you know, sending Callahan home. Tommy boy Callahan.

• 1:38:59Bill Simmons?

  All right. Well, you know what? Let's take a break. We'll figure out what we do. We'll come back. We'll do our Ringer 107 picks and then you're gonna break down the Ryder Cup for us and tell us how to win money and better get to our country.

• 1:39:10Speaker 03

  I'm pro football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins, and I lived for a long time with something I did not know the name of. Major depressive disorder. I carry sadness and anger because I thought I could handle it alone, but I couldn't. Now I want to make sure others know that that support is out there. If you're experiencing similar symptoms, talk to a healthcare professional. Visit MDDAllies.com to watch my story.

• 1:39:36Speaker 04

  Paid partnership with Johnson & Johnson. Brian Dawkins has not prescribed Caplyta lumateperone.

• 1:39:48Speaker 05

  I needed more from my antidepressant, so my doctor added Caplyta, lumateperone, proven to provide greater relief from depression symptoms than an antidepressant alone, building on my progress without starting over. Caplyta is for adults with major depressive disorder when used with an antidepressant and is available by prescription only. Individual results may vary. In clinical trials, weight gain was not common.

• 1:40:08Speaker 04

  Elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. Caplyta is not approved for dementia-related psychosis. Call your doctor about new or sudden mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts right away. Antidepressants may increase these risks. Report fever, confusion, stiff muscles, which may be life-threatening, or uncontrolled muscle movements, which may be permanent. High cholesterol and weight gain may occur, as can high blood sugar, which may be fatal. Monitoring is recommended. Common side effects are sleepiness, dizziness, nausea, dry mouth, feeling tired, and diarrhea. These aren't all the side effects.

• 1:40:35Speaker 05

  Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.

• 1:40:41Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, two things I really like. If you're an NFL fan considering a new cable contract, you're basically an unrestricted free agent. Trading that contract for NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, the best possible trade you can make during the offseason.

• 1:41:24Bill Simmons?

  If you're a new user, ready to make that move, here's why I think you should do it. First of all, Sunday Ticket, as you know, I love it. But when you get YouTube TV, you also get whatever your local games are for the multi-view, which is huge, which I didn't realize. During the old days, when I didn't have YouTube TV and you couldn't put the Chargers or Ram games here in LA into the multi-view. Now I can, but YouTube TV is great. It records basically everything. Like you could just say, record Celtics and the Celtic games if they're on YouTube TV, they'll just record for you. It's like the greatest DVR of all time. If you are a fan free agent NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, that's the contract you should sign. Get every game every Sunday all in one place.

• 1:42:08Bill Simmons?

  It's a no-brainer and right now you can get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Try it out. Go to youtube.com/BS to sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games. Base plan required, renews every month during the 2025 regular season only. Your membership for the following month can be canceled anytime before your renewal date. Terms, restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by FanDuel. And holy mackerel, House and I just, we just did a 25-minute break. Poor Gahow and poor Eduardo were just sitting there pouring gasoline on themselves like the people on Airplane.

• 1:42:51Bill Simmons?

  As we just debated, tried to figure out odds, trying to figure out what our parlay was going to be. And I think we ended up in the right place because we had to obey House's edict that we had to be men, put chest hair in our chests. For me to act like a guy whose birthday it is and just get on the pad straight up.

• 1:43:09Speaker 01

  Happy birthday to you!

• 1:43:11Bill Simmons?

  Thank you. Just go Pat straight up minus five and a half. So here we go. The Ringer 107 for week four. We are five and 10. Hopefully we're 10 and 10 after these five picks. We decided not to do the Raiders Bears. We talked about it a lot. If we were 10 and 5, I would bet on Geno Smith, but we're 5 and 10, so we can't. So we are going to bet on the Jags. Plus three and a half against the very, very, very banged up San Francisco 49ers. Both House and I like the Jags just in general. We're not going to apologize either. We think they're pretty talented, correct?

• 1:43:44Speaker 01

  They are talented. They have to self, stop self sabotaging.

• 1:43:50Bill Simmons?

  Well, we're taking the Falcons plus one and a half against your beloved Washington C-words and we're doing it because we're five and 10. And if we have to bet against one of our favorite teams, we're going to do that. Not a great spot for your team.

• 1:44:03Speaker 01

  Speaking of self sabotage, yes.

• 1:44:05Bill Simmons?

  We like the Falcons with the bounce back. We're going to Ireland for a 6:30 PT start. Vikings Steelers. Both of us absolutely love the Vikings minus one and a half.

• 1:44:15Speaker 01

  This is a rule breaker special. We are breaking the rules.

• 1:44:18Bill Simmons?

  We're breaking the rules of don't bet on this game ever. Don't bet on a game that starts before 10 a.m. on a Sunday and don't bet on a game with a bunch of drunk Irish people.

• 1:44:29Speaker 01

  Don't bet on Carson Wentz.

• 1:44:30Bill Simmons?

  I'm 25% Irish. Don't bet on Carson Wentz. Another rule we're breaking, but uh, bet against Aaron Rodgers and bet against a fraudulent Steelers team are two really good rules. So we're taking the Vikings minus one and a half. We're going to bet the Patriots straight up minus five and a half at home against Carolina Panthers. We think the Pats are better than the record. Think the Panthers are probably a little worse than their record.

• 1:44:52Speaker 01

  Well, they've only won one game.

• 1:44:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're one and two and they should be minus one and four. We're going to take the Pats straight up. And then this is what we debated. We threw in a bunch of people on this. We really wanted to put the Packers in a parlay.

• 1:45:08Speaker 01

  We did. We were, we tried so hard.

• 1:45:10Bill Simmons?

  We wanted to figure out a Packers Texans parlay, but the minus 120 rule for Ringer 107, the bet has to be minus 120 or better from an odds standpoint. And we just couldn't make it work. We turned to our old friend, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. We are doing the Packers minus two and a half against Dallas, a team that will not have C.D. Lamb, that will be going against Michael Parsons. And we do not think they're going to be able to move the ball that well. And we expect the Green Bay bounce back. So minus two and a half. And we're putting them with the Chiefs alt line on Fanduel plus seven and a half.

• 1:45:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:45:46Bill Simmons?

  Close Chiefs Ravens game. I had to talk you into it. Something scared you? Is it the Ravens offense scared you? What scared you?

• 1:45:52Speaker 01

  That's literally it. The Ravens offense is incredible. Speaking of self sabotage, if Derrick Henry stops fumbling, you know, at crucial moments of the game with their, when they're driving to go up by, by significant margin. I was hoping that we could figure out a way to get the Chiefs by eight and a half, but seven and a half is satisfactory because the Chiefs at home don't lose by margin.

• 1:46:15Bill Simmons?

  Xavier Worthy back.

• 1:46:17Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:46:20Bill Simmons?

  I mean, really, the Chiefs are gonna get blown out by double digits at home and go 1-3 to start the season?

• 1:46:26Speaker 01

  I don't think so.

• 1:46:28Bill Simmons?

  Ravens defense is bad. The Chiefs should be able to run the ball, some Pacheco. I feel okay with this house. Those are Ringer 107 picks. I hope we turn it around. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change. Okay, let's talk about something you are passionate about. The Ryder Cup. You've been just putting more and more money on the other team that's not America? Over and over again, you've been, as the foreigners keep winning PGA tournaments, and you would just sprinkle more and more Ryder Cup money in them. But now, now you're going to the Ryder Cup with our buddy Nathan Hubbard, and you're gonna root for America. Do people know you're a turncoat? What's the deal?

• 1:47:06Speaker 01

  Well, I've been public about the fact that as a rational better, when I'm trying to help all of the birdie buddies out there, put a little bit of green US dollars in their pockets, the rational bet is on Europe. And Europe at the, at the moment is getting, on the FanDuel Sportsbook, let's see, I think they're plus 160, right? Plus 170, right? And the US is minus 150.

• 1:47:34Bill Simmons?

  So your take is you feel like this is basically 50-50?

• 1:47:38Speaker 01

  That is my take. That's exactly right.

• 1:47:40Bill Simmons?

  And the foreign side, the bad guys, are plus 170 in a 50-50 matchup where they have a more experienced team. You pointed out on the Ringer Gambling Show yesterday, it's basically the exact same team as they had in the last Ryder Cup, except for a twin brother switch.

• 1:47:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, if you took the picture of 2023 and the picture of this year, it looks the same. Same thing.

• 1:48:01Bill Simmons?

  I wanted, it's, it's like, nothing, nothing is different. I want to expand on a point you guys made that I thought, I've been thinking the same thing, because this is such a hard ticket to get, and it's so expensive. And everybody's like Ryder Cup in New York, this is gonna be crazy. And it's like, is it? Is it gonna be crazy? Because did you, did you see the US Open tennis crowd?

• 1:48:23Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:48:24Bill Simmons?

  Similar, similar kind of, oh, you really need connections and some money to get here. And, oh, here's, here's, uh, what's that drink they have at the US Open? The Honey Glaze or whatever it's called?

• 1:48:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's right. With honeydew melon and, right, yeah, $38 drink.

• 1:48:41Bill Simmons?

  You should get, you should get an overpriced sandwich from David Chang.

• 1:48:46Bill Simmons?

  I just wanted to make sure he's listening. Overpriced short rib sandwich from Chang. Thirty nine dollars. But anyway, that's, that's, uh, just kidding, Chang. That is, uh, that's gonna be the vibe at this thing, right? Are normal people gonna be at this?

• 1:49:03Speaker 01

  There, there will be, yeah, you know, some folks and they did, you know, offer up a, a set of tickets, but you know, the, the early movers and the bulk of it, I think was, was folks moving in on, on expensive ticket packages. So.

• 1:49:17Bill Simmons?

  It's all, it's all people like Vino from CAA. He'll be there wearing a vest.

• 1:49:21Speaker 01

  I'll be speaking up. Where's my hat? There we go. I have my Vino. Yeah, there we go.

• 1:49:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. He'll be, he'll be there with some snazzy vest, shaking hands, but it's gonna be a lot of that. It's gonna be a lot of people that we know.

• 1:49:33Speaker 01

  Poor Vino.

• 1:49:34Bill Simmons?

  Guess what? People like us don't make a lot of noise at golf tournaments.

• 1:49:38Speaker 01

  I mean, uh, you know, it depends on how many.

• 1:49:40Bill Simmons?

  We share, but we're not like, you want people like the J-Bug circa 1995 at this thing.

• 1:49:45Speaker 01

  That's what you need.

• 1:49:45Bill Simmons?

  You want like hardcore people in their twenties who are like, I'm gonna fuck with that, that fucking guy from Germany. I'm gonna fuck with that guy.

• 1:49:53Speaker 01

  Tyrrell Hatton, right? You know?

• 1:49:55Bill Simmons?

  Tyrrell, you piece of shit. Fuck you. Um, all right. So give us, give us some bets that we should do this weekend with the, with the cup.

• 1:50:03Speaker 01

  Well, in the, in the first place, um, yes, the Europe price remains attractive at, at plus, uh, 170. They announced the first four matches tomorrow morning. It is the, it's alternate shot.

• 1:50:16Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna pour rain tomorrow morning. So it like, isn't it now?

• 1:50:21Speaker 01

  I, I don't know. We, we're, we're gonna see, uh, you know, the weather forecast is, is iffy indeed. It's been, it rained today, uh, out there. Um, the, the four matchups are bright, the, the leadoff is Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas. So we're going, coming out with, with bangers up against Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton, speaking of. And the, the line on that match is Rahm and Hatton plus, uh, a hundred, so even money. And DeChambeau and Thomas are plus 130.

• 1:50:55Speaker 01

  I I love the Rahm Hatton combo.

• 1:50:58Bill Simmons?

  And that's like one of our best duos. That's not a good sign for the us winning the thing when we're not even favorites in a match where we're throwing those guys out.

• 1:51:07Speaker 01

  I don't know whether or not it's one of our best duos. It's an enormous unknown.

• 1:51:12Bill Simmons?

  What's our best duo in your opinion? What's the one you you're counting on the most?

• 1:51:15Speaker 01

  In this foursome format, which is the alt shot, our best team is Scotty Scheffler and Russell Henley. Russell Henley deadly short game specialist and Scheffler, you know, will will put them in good, good position and, you know, unsurprisingly, that team is favored by a good margin over Ludwig Oberg and Matt Fitzpatrick. The Scheffler Henley team is minus 165. If you want to lay that, I'm not mad at you. I think that's a perfectly fair price.

• 1:51:48Bill Simmons?

  Should have put that with the Packers.

• 1:51:51Speaker 01

  There's nothing stopping us. There's still time. Yeah, I mean, you can build any kind of parlay. I already parlayed the Europe to have the first day lead with the Georgia Bulldogs. That was like plus 223 tomorrow on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Yeah.

• 1:52:09Bill Simmons?

  You can't do any shenanigans with bringer 107 because Sheriff JJ gets upset.

• 1:52:14Speaker 01

  He just wants to know what the rules are. I don't, I know, I'm not mad at you.

• 1:52:18Bill Simmons?

  And you like that? What was the other one you like? Just for the, there was one, what was the?

• 1:52:24Speaker 01

  There are, there are some.

• 1:52:26Bill Simmons?

  There's one golfer you love.

• 1:52:27Speaker 01

  There's, there are some matchups. Yeah, there are some matchups. So Victor Hovland is matched up and, you know, who will win more points in this tournament? Victor Hovland or Cam Young? Cam Young was favored at minus 148 and Hovland was like plus 110 or something like that. Hovland has played every single session of the last two Ryder Cups. He's, he played all five sessions in 2021 and he played all five sessions in 2023. And, you know, that the Euro team comes in with analytics saying, yeah, we, we think that, that Hovland's a good investment. So I just think for. Cam Young, he's the king of New York. He was born and, and, oh, I don't know where he was born,

• 1:53:09Speaker 01

  but he was raised out in the Hudson Valley. His dad was a golf pro out at Sleepy Hollow. And he, as a kid, won a tournament at Bethpage and I think set the course record. So he has like good, good vibes at, at Bethpage, but that price is crazy to me for a rookie.

• 1:53:28Bill Simmons?

  Baby Doll is going to be there at Ryder Cup to no surprise.

• 1:53:32Speaker 01

  I wonder if, if there's, I, I, so all I have to do is go find the smoking area. That's, that's where Baby Doll will be.

• 1:53:40Bill Simmons?

  Find the smoking area. Also try to find the odds on Fandel for amount of hours. Baby was at the Ryder Cup this weekend compared to amount of hours he was in LA for Jimmy's show.

• 1:53:51Speaker 01

  Well, what did, what did he need to be?

• 1:53:53Bill Simmons?

  The Ryder Cup is favored by 38 hours.

• 1:53:56Speaker 01

  I'm.

• 1:53:58Bill Simmons?

  More details to come on Sunday's pod.

• 1:54:00Speaker 01

  I'm backing Baby on this one. What did he need to be at the show for? He, his work was done. The fact that there's a show, that's, that's the work. That's what Baby Doll is there for. Jimmy's on the show. Is there a show? Yes. My work is done. Where's the golf tournament? I can't do a Baby Doll accent.

• 1:54:16Bill Simmons?

  Baby, come on. I gotta meet Carson Daly. He's hosting a Ryder Cup thing.

• 1:54:22Speaker 01

  He did. He did host one.

• 1:54:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Uh, Baby's very excited for this. This is, he really feels like, uh, this is, this is going to be a special, special weekend for America. I'm a little more dubious. There are some unbelievable home field advantage Ryder Cup stats, at least for the last six or seven. So that is, hence, hence the thing. I'd be surprised if we won.

• 1:54:46Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:54:47Bill Simmons?

  Really would. I would be surprised.

• 1:54:49Speaker 01

  Why?

• 1:54:50Bill Simmons?

  I just think that, that foreign team,

• 1:54:55Bill Simmons?

  the, the one thing they haven't done lately is come on our turf. And take the cup. I thought what Sal said about how the draw 10 to one and Europe gets to keep the cup. That's a, that's a interesting one, but I would bet the raise the trophy bet for Europe, which I think was like plus 125, something like that.

• 1:55:13Speaker 01

  Here, let's, let's look and see if that's changed any.

• 1:55:15Bill Simmons?

  Cause then you're covered with the, with the stupid draw. Cause they could always play for the draw.

• 1:55:19Speaker 01

  Lift the trophy, USA minus 140, Europe plus 124. So that's like closer to the implied probability of those odds. Yeah. Yeah. That's.

• 1:55:29Bill Simmons?

  All right. So you're going, you're going and on Saturday, people should know if they run into you, you love buying drinks.

• 1:55:36Speaker 01

  I hope to be going from hospitality tent to hospitality tent, just helping myself. I don't plan on.

• 1:55:43Bill Simmons?

  Is there a signature drink?

• 1:55:45Speaker 01

  Uh, that's a great question. I don't know. What would it be?

• 1:55:48Bill Simmons?

  Like a Bethpage?

• 1:55:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm sure.

• 1:55:50Bill Simmons?

  Bethpage spritzer?

• 1:55:52Speaker 01

  Probably, probably. Yeah.

• 1:55:54Bill Simmons?

  Bethpage splash?

• 1:55:56Speaker 01

  I haven't, I haven't done any of that research yet.

• 1:55:58Bill Simmons?

  Patriotic punch?

• 1:55:59Speaker 01

  I'm not planning on buying any, any, any drinks, spending on my own money.

• 1:56:03Bill Simmons?

  Don't buy one drink. Let Vino buy you drinks if you run into him.

• 1:56:06Speaker 01

  Vino. Yeah. Come through, baby.

• 1:56:07Bill Simmons?

  He'll have, I guarantee he'll have a really nice Ryder Cup 2025 vest. Um, all right, House. Have a great time. I really hope we're 10 and 10 next time I talk to you.

• 1:56:18Speaker 01

  You and me both. I'm knocking on wood. Good job by us.

• 1:56:21Bill Simmons?

  Good job by us. See you later. All right. Thanks to Todd. Thanks to House. Thanks to Gahan Eduardo as well. Don't forget, uh, Prestige TV task Sunday night, and then new rewatch was coming Monday. So you have four days here to watch this thing and I will be back on Sunday night with the cuz. And we'll talk about some of the, uh, we both went to Jimmy Kimmel's show on Tuesday, which was fantastic. Just a great experience, but we'll talk about all the stuff that happened with Jimmy this week. And we'll talk about Sunday night football and college football and a whole bunch more. Enjoy the weekend. I'm off to enjoy my birthday and I will see you on Sunday.

• 1:57:14Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit gambling helpline MA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY, or text HOPE-NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by 7Up. Okay, this one's a case for conspiracy bill. Let's bring them in.

• 1:57:55Bill Simmons?

  Ever notice lemon is everywhere, from lemon recipes to lemon-scented cleaning supplies? And when it comes to lemon-lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the A Lemonade has been padding the stats, keeping big lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something, the sip is about to be flipped. 7Up is fighting back, swapping lemon-lime for their new Lime Lemon Soda. Now lime comes first. 7Up, flip the sip. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh.

• 1:58:36Bill Simmons?

  Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment, and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6th. Get tickets now.