Trump Extended His Iran Deadline, Iran Ceasefire Is Already Falling Apart, Claude Leak Exposed Unreleased Features That Will Change AI Forever | Weekly Recap

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call: https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Blinkist: Start your free trial at https://blinkist.com/impactQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impactAT&T Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.com http://business.att.comNetsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory https://netsuite.com/TheoryKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderSumm: code TOMVIP20 for 20% off your first year at https://summ.com?via=tombilyeu&coupon=TOMVIP20 https://summ.com?via=tombilyeu&coupon=TOMVIP20Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactCozy Earth: code IMPACT for 20% off https://cozyearth.comQuo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Tom is joined by a sharp geopolitical analyst to unpack Trump's latest ultimatum to Iran, including his jaw-dropping Easter Sunday tweet signing off with "Praise be to Allah" — and what it reveals about the White House's increasingly desperate mental map of a regime that simply will not capitulate. They dig into the parade of extended deadlines, Iran's jaw-dropping counter-demands (yes, including war reparations), and the backchannel negotiations Trump says are going well while Iran says don't exist. Joining Tom is Drew, who brings sharp, no-nonsense analysis to the rapidly shifting landscape of US-Iran negotiations. Together they unpack the two-week ceasefire brokered with Pakistan's help, the dueling 10 and 15 point peace proposals, and the fierce battle of narratives playing out across social media and mainstream news. Is this a win for Trump — or an unmitigated disaster in slow motion? The Anthropic source code leak. What started as a routine update to Claude Code turned into one of the most embarrassing moments in Silicon Valley history — a debugging file accidentally exposed roughly 500,000 lines of proprietary code in a publicly accessible archive. No hacking required. Within hours, mirrored repositories were spreading across GitHub and competitors had a detailed look at Anthropic's engineering roadmap, including unreleased features that were fully built but never shipped. Tom and Drew dig into why this matters, what the leaked features reveal about where Claude is headed, and whether this is survivable for a company whose core identity is "safety first." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:07Speaker 01

  Mayor Mamdani tweeted out, "Happy Easter, New York. Today, millions of New Yorkers celebrate the resurrection of Jesus Christ and the victory of hope over despair and faith over fear." The Muslim socialist and the Christian president said, "Today will be a power play day. Bridge Day, all hope are all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the effing strait. Or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump." Talk about threats. That's a spicy one. What was your initial reaction seeing that tweet?

• 1:32Tom Bilyeu?

  It is more of what I come to expect from the president, much to my dismay. I really do miss the era of a president being presidential. I won't lie, I find this stuff morbidly hilarious. Emphasis on the morbidly. So there is an entertainment value. There's a shock value, to be sure. But you know, when you're talking about human life, this stuff all gets very dark way, way, way too fast. So I couldn't believe it. It was one of those, I had to fact check it. I was like, there's no way that's what it actually said, right? Like this is because people write tweets in his voice all the time. But yep, that one actually does seem to be real. He's like at the beginning of this term, you could see he was trying to be restrained. He dropped the one. Bomb and it was like, oh my God, it's a big deal. Like, can you believe the president has said that? And then you see how far it's gotten.

• 2:16Tom Bilyeu?

  And clearly this is somebody who's building a mental map of the Iranians as being completely unwilling to negotiate, willing to let their country just be burned to the ground. We started to get this sense of what the Trump administration's mental map was of this whole process when Whitkoff said, you know, we can't believe that they haven't capitulated. So we're sending all this hardware, all of these troops, everything over into the region, and they're just not doing anything with it. Once we could see that's where they're mapping all of this stuff out is they're being unreasonable, that there you should be able to build up force, hold a club to somebody's head, put a gun in their face and they react in a prescripted way. And the fact that they're not reacting that way, I think is very shocking to Trump.

• 3:01Tom Bilyeu?

  And so we're seeing that in this latest tweet. The praise be to Allah part is what spun a lot of people out. Not the you crazy bastards, you'll be living in hell, all that. The praise be to Allah. It admittedly is a, an amusing choice, but nonetheless, Trump has now extended the power plant and bridge day deadline three times, something like two or three times. The current cutoff is Tuesday, April 8th at 8:00 PM Eastern. We'll see if that holds. Iran has made it clear it has no intention of meeting that deadline. On Sunday, Trump told the Wall Street Journal, if they don't do something by Tuesday evening, they won't have any power plants and they won't have any bridges standing. Trump backs up the things that he claims, even when it seems absolutely politically suicidal.

• 3:45Tom Bilyeu?

  If he does not see some sort of off ramp, you can expect him to push forward with that. I'll be very surprised, however, if he doesn't extend this again, pretty substantively. If he's seen cues that he has somebody that he can work with. Now, the Tuesday deadline is the latest in a series of ultimatums from your boy. Trump first demanded Iran fully reopen the strait within 48 hours on March 21st. Then he extended that window and now we'll see if the 8:00 PM Eastern one holds. Iran's response, basically coming directly from their foreign minister. He told Al Jazeera flatly, at present, there is no negotiation. I can feel these guys like banging the table. It's like, how many times do I have to say this? We're not negotiating with them, which seems like a lie. P.S. By the way,

• 4:26Tom Bilyeu?

  I think they're standing on literal words. It seems pretty apparent that there is back channel negotiation going on with Pakistan. The speaker of Iran's parliament posted that no negotiations have been held, calling Trump's announcements a scheme to manipulate oil markets. The gap between what each side is claiming is getting pretty wide, but hopefully we're all getting used to that at this point. Trump told Axios that talks are going well and said there's a good chance of a deal, but warned, "If they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there." That is a quote. The structural problem is this: Iran's counterdemands are wild, and they include an end to all U.S. and Israeli strikes. Fair ask. Full sanctions relief. Hmm. Gonna have a hard time with that one. Keeping its missile program intact, that's obviously a nonstarter.

• 5:11Tom Bilyeu?

  War reparations, that's laughable. And international recognition of Iranians' sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Good luck with that. Washington has called their terms a nonstarter, as you would expect. And an adviser to Iran's new supreme leader threatened closure of the Bab al Mandab Strait as well. So that's on the other side. Just trying to make sure that everybody's escalating from a just absolute mass chaos standpoint. Remember, this is existential, and it's existential for both sides. You've got Trump on a one-way ticket to prison. If he doesn't maintain power in the midterms, he will get impeached almost certainly. And then if and when he goes out of office, all bets are off if the Democrats are in power. So he's looking at this from a, well, it's sort

• 5:54Tom Bilyeu?

  of Mount Rushmore or bust. And then the Iranians, literally life and death on their side. So expect people to continue to be completely irrational from the other person's side, because when somebody's backed into a corner like that, and it really does seem existential from their perspective, they have a totally different set of calculus. So yeah, this one's gonna just continue to be strange.

• 6:14Speaker 01

  In everything, though, because I feel like this is his fourth or fifth, like, deadline ultimatum. Does this specific narrative worry you?

• 6:22Tom Bilyeu?

  That he backs off all the time?

• 6:23Speaker 01

  No, no, no, just this specific threat, because I have a poll in the chat right now. Does Tuesday's deadline, you know, cause stress to you?

• 6:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 6:32Speaker 01

  Because I feel like civilian infrastructure is a bit of a different category. But I don't know if we are just categorizing this as like, oh, well, this is just like he threatened the oil. This is just like he threatened the island. This is just like he threatened the straight before. Or is, does this feel different with you because of the bridge, because of the?

• 6:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, here's the really bad news. It doesn't feel different. This feels like the normal escalatory path that I would expect Trump to be on with a regime that feels that it's in an existential fight for its life. However, I would like PSA time to remind us all that we are the frog being slowly boiled. And if I went back in time to say October, and I said, this is the headline in, you know, April, what, sixth? You guys would be like, no way. Like, there's no way. That's so crazy. And yet, here we are. So I think it's important for all of us to remind ourselves how insane this moment really is, that we really are at war right now,

• 7:27Tom Bilyeu?

  that we are threatening to take out their energy, their civilian bridges, which will cause retaliatory strikes across the GCC nations, which will, if you think oil prices are rough right now, wait till you see when we wipe out Iran. Iran then wipes out a bunch of places across the Gulf because oil prices are set internationally. So you're gonna hear Trump bang one drum over and over and over. The US doesn't need the oil from the rest of the world. Cool, great. However, oil prices are set internationally. Meaning, there's a certain amount of oil that is produced every day that can be shipped around the world. And if you have oil in your country, meant to go to the people in your town,

• 8:07Tom Bilyeu?

  and somebody around the world, namely China, goes, well, you just blew up everything in Iran, where we were getting, you know, between Venezuela and Iran, something like 20% of China's oil. Now all of a sudden, they're gonna start bidding for that oil that was meant to stay domestic. But now those producers are like, cool, guys, I'll let it stay domestic. But you're gonna have to match the price that I can get on the international market. So the prices are still going to go up. Whether we're ever going to deal with shortages is a different story. You're still gonna see the price climb. So that will be extraordinarily.

• 8:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Impactful to the global economy. So the reason that I hope myself and everybody else included stays alert to just how high risk this moment is from a global economics standpoint, not just loss of human life standpoint is that this is the kind of thing that escalates out of control. You're never able to get the escalatory dominance that you were hoping to get. And so the strata form moves then just effectively get shut down. And the world will respond and Saudi, for instance, is already beginning to pump oil over land. So it will do things like that. We'll reorganize around a North America, both US and Canada that are, you know, getting richer because the world is now turning to us for more oil. So it's, it's all going to be these crazy trade offs, but that will take time.

• 9:24Tom Bilyeu?

  It will not be a smooth transition. Let's say that.

• 9:28Speaker 01

  There is some good news on the horizon with that, though. OPEC met yesterday and they are agreeing to increase their output. So that leaves from a supply and demand perspective, they're at least helping add to the supply.

• 9:39Tom Bilyeu?

  If they can ship it around, you know, yes, but a lot of this isn't that oil production is a problem right now. It's that moving the oil is the hard part. So that's awesome that OPEC is doing that for sure. But if a large portion of OPEC is getting bombed, then now you have a problem. So and if they can't move it because the Houthis have talked about getting involved in the Red Sea, which would be create another choke point. It's probably more precarious than anybody wants you to think. Now, we'll see how it plays out. No need to get out over our skis, but the reality of asymmetric warfare is such that Trump is going to continually feel like, how much do I have to break these guys before they finally

• 10:23Tom Bilyeu?

  give in? And because that's his mental model, that I can put enough pressure on you and you will eventually cave. I think this is going to go really far and he's going to destroy a lot of stuff only to realize like, damn, like we really might have to put boots on the ground if we want to get where we want to get. And I worry that he would be willing to do that. There is a path where I can see this becomes runaway. Trump destroys their civilian infrastructure. They then respond even harder and

• 10:50Tom Bilyeu?

  They just completely shut down the strait. They start attacking the oil infrastructure and possibly desalinization infrastructure across the Gulf. And now you're in a much worse global position. Again, we'll rebalance. I'm well aware that the world has no shortage of oil. There are plenty of places other than the Middle East where we can get oil. But the transition will be extraordinarily expensive.

• 11:11Speaker 01

  Going back to the strait, there was reports from Fox News that they're thinking about doing some type of toll booth vessel fee. And then America responding to that will say, well, we'll do a $2 million escort fee for every vessel. So it's one of those things. Do you think that this is viable, having an actual escort versus a toll booth? It seems on paper, it sounds good, but when missiles are flying, I don't know if any company wants to take that chance.

• 11:34Tom Bilyeu?

  I think the reality is that, first of all, the person that put that forward was just like a guy. That's not like actual Trump policy. But I think that if you're charging people that kind of money, first of all, you look like an asshole because you started this and now you're profiting off of it. If we were actually able to get people through the strait, we should do it for free and show people, hey, look, we can actually keep this strait open. I think the problem is we can't actually keep this strait open. We keep saying we can, but then a couple of well-placed drones and everybody gets real skittish. It's like that idea that, hey, there's, you know, whatever, only 30 soldiers with guns, they can't kill us all. It's like, yes, but they can kill the front two or three rows. So how do you get that momentum?

• 12:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, how do you get the first people to run in to be the, you know, the machine gun fire? The Trump admin charging $2 million to solve a problem that they started is not going to go over well.

• 12:29Speaker 01

  Do you worry about any of the international implications of us attacking a bridge, attacking?

• 12:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Every day.

• 12:37Speaker 01

  Power plants? Because that is an international war crime line. But I feel like nowadays, it's like, what's a couple of war crimes amongst friends?

• 12:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Literally.

• 12:44Speaker 01

  So I don't think we'll necessarily have anybody policing us in that. But is there some type of moral high ground we need to take? Or is at this point, it's just, we have to win, get out of there?

• 12:53Tom Bilyeu?

  We gave up the moral high ground a very long time ago. And so the only question is, does this moment in history? Mandate that you give up the moral high ground. I don't know. That that will be a question for historians to look at. Living through it is not fun because all of the sense of like, okay, we're America. We're doing the just thing like that has gone out the window. Now the question becomes, are we doing the effective thing? Maybe we'll see that will come out in the wash. Right now it looks like everything is up in the air. And it is entirely possible that it all comes crashing back down to earth. And that what we end up with is a situation where the global economy is in a recession. Because we have put ourselves in a position where we cannot effectively get the oil out of the Middle East.

• 13:38Tom Bilyeu?

  And we need to begin transitioning into a future world order. By the way, a world order where America is probably fine. Because of our geographic positioning, because of our access to resources, all of that. But it will be, I mean, how long does that take? Is that a year? Is it two years? Is it three years? That's a long time to be in the grips of a global recession. And the question is, does America stay stable? I won't say intact, but I will say stable through all of that. Because there is so much hatred between the two sides. Until we see how this actually plays out. Until we see if the US can get a stable Iran. If we can get an open strait of Hormuz. If we can get things flowing again.

• 14:19Tom Bilyeu?

  And then it looks like this sort of very icky, morally repugnant move that we made. If we can go, okay, well, in the end, we got what we wanted. Which is a defanged Iran, a stable alliance in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords, bringing everybody together. Finally, everybody in the Middle East looking at this as the economic problem that it is. Instead of end of days theology, which is what it feels like more now. So if Trump can actually pull that off. And on the other side of this, in the very near term, like if this is a 30 day ish thing. Where we start seeing everything move in that direction. Then I think people will go, okay, the results that we got justify what we did.

• 15:00Tom Bilyeu?

  You'll still have a ton of fighting over war crimes and get Trump out, lock him up, all of that. But it will deflate a lot if the result is good. If the result is bad, he's toast. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60, and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax. The $60 goes to the actual sweater, not the fancy name on the tag.

• 15:41Tom Bilyeu?

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• 16:25Tom Bilyeu?

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• 17:11Tom Bilyeu?

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• 18:40Speaker 02

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• 19:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 19:14Speaker 01

  What do you think about the ceasefire?

• 19:15Tom Bilyeu?

  The details remain murky. There's a battle of narratives going on and there's a lot of conflicting details flying almost as fast as the additional rockets that have been flying. So I will say that at best, the ceasefire is extremely fragile. Just like an hour or so before Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline, the U.S. and Iran agreed tentatively to a two-week ceasefire. That's it. They haven't agreed to points. They've agreed to a two-week ceasefire with peace talks set for Friday in Islamabad. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabaz Sharif, helped get the

• 19:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Two week pause for negotiations across the finish line and he posted directly on X tagging Trump, Vance, Rubio and Whitkoff, asking Trump to please extend the deadline two weeks and asking Iran as an act of good faith to open the strait. So Trump posted on True Social that based on conversations with Sharif and Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Assim Munir, he agreed to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks on the condition of a complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• 20:19Speaker 01

  We have some breaking news from TKL. Hasn't been verified. We just are reading the tweet and it's per an Iranian news agency, so it could be propaganda, but allegedly the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped. Iran is says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses. So last night it was reported via CNN that the ceasefire was between Israel and Iran. Iran sent some missiles allegedly to Tel Aviv. Like you said, we don't know if that was before.

• 20:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Iran also bombed the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain.

• 20:50Speaker 01

  The timing was speculative, so nobody knew what was happening. Israel bombed Lebanon this morning and now we're here. So again, it could be a one day ceasefire and hopefully this stoppage is just temporary.

• 21:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Maybe we didn't even get to 24 hours. So yeah, this thing is fragile at best. And I'm not even including Israel bombing Lebanon. I think that's a separate issue. It's terrible, but nonetheless, it's a separate issue. But we are not to the point of what Trump said that the two weeks was conditioned upon. Now, I think on that Trump will be pretty forgiving for people that like to see taco sauce on Trump's chin. You can expect him to, he's going to take that. There's no way he's going to go make good on the insane threats that he was promising. But over time, I think you could see that start to grate on him. So we'll see where we end up. Now, emotions are still going to be high. These are humans that we're talking about. So you can expect pettiness. You can expect people to drag their feet.

• 21:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Everybody should be assuming that neither the US nor Iran is actually putting their real agenda on the table, that both sides are going to be using the beat to build their arsenals back up to get rest. So that they can fight some more. So please don't be surprised if any of this goes awry. Now, the mechanic that got Iran over the line, Trump said he received a 10-point proposal from Iran and called it a workable basis for negotiation. Not I've agreed to these points. It's been, this is where the most of the battle for the narrative has been taking place is around what's been proposed, what's been agreed. There's like all these fake points that are going around and Trump is talking about whether a law was broken in some of that reporting.

• 22:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Anyway, when you look at the points that were put forward, almost all of the points that were considered to be contention, according to Trump, have been moved beyond. So the things that were the real sticking points apparently are no longer there. Iran's framing, though, of those same items is pretty different. Iran's 10-point proposal included, according to them, regulated passage through Hormoz under Iranian military coordination, full sanctions relief, and Iran retaining what it called a quote unquote, "unique economic and geopolitical standing over the strait", meaning basically we get to extort ships that are going through the strait. Now, much of the narrative warfare that's flying all over social media is whether this is a win for Iran or the US.

• 23:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Some people are saying that Trump has already agreed to Iran's deal points, which would be a humiliating defeat. But Trump said that that's all fake news and he's going to investigate CNN. As I was saying, they were the ones that broke the story first to see if this was an honest mistake or if they actually misreported intentionally. Previously, Trump had warned that a whole civilization will die tonight. People have been running with that, saying that he was promising the genocide of the people in Iran. I think he was more talking about the infrastructure. But nonetheless, he certainly left plenty of room for people to hate what he was saying. He had threatened massive strikes on civilian infrastructure. And this is brushed off around whether Trump thought these were war crimes or not, but I think you would expect that.

• 23:54Tom Bilyeu?

  His specific targets included bridges, power plants, and water treatment facilities. And while I, for one, am forcing myself, as mentioned at the top of the show, to maintain optimism here, the truce does indeed feel extraordinarily delicate.

• 24:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Sounded across Israel and multiple Gulf states, including Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, even after the ceasefire went into effect. That's certainly not great news for this holding. Israel's military said it identified several rounds of missiles that were launched from Iran as well. And as many people are pointing out, it does appear that Israel is also bombing the living daylights out of Lebanon. It's a different conflict, but nonetheless entirely related. And so I'm sure some people will try to throw that in the mix. Now, whether all of these launches came before or after the ceasefire technically took effect isn't yet confirmed. Iran's decentralized military structure also makes it very possible that the IRGC commanders who are operating autonomously off of predetermined target lists just may not have gotten the orders in time. So it's very possible that

• 24:53Tom Bilyeu?

  everybody's intentions were pure. It's of course also possible that it's not everybody's just being an asshole. Iran's supreme leader issued a stop fire order approximately two hours after Trump's announcement. So we'll see how long it takes to work its way down to all the troops. And the markets reacted immediately. As markets do, the S and P 500 futures rose more than 1% on the news and the price of oil plunged back down to below 95. That's both for WTI and Brent crude. I don't know if any of you care about the difference, but there is a difference. And so both of them are back down.

• 25:26Speaker 01

  I was surprised how many of the Iranian people actually were standing on bridges, in power plants, waving their flags, almost egging the US on to do something. So I'm glad we at least got out of that diplomatic nightmare crisis that would have ensued. However,

• 25:39Tom Bilyeu?

  It's also, so yes, maybe egging on, but you've got to respect when somebody believes in something enough that they're willing to die for it. The US has made no secret. They will blow shit up. And you know that, and you still go, go hold hands around the building. Respect. I will acknowledge fully when my adversary is worthy.

• 25:57Speaker 01

  Iran announced their 10-point plan. Trump announced the 15-point plan. There's some speculation about which, what negotiation point, you know, classic negotiation. You say 100, I say 10, we meet somewhere at 45, 50, say 55, depending on how good we are at negotiating. If you are looking at this before the situation, after the situation, it seems that no matter what we come out of. The Strait of Hormuz will now be a toll road in one direction or another. Somebody's going to be getting some type of proceeds to pass through that. It used to be free. There's going to be some type of infrastructure cost that will need to happen in the UAE countries, in Iran, things like that. As we're starting to look through all these points, do you think that we have quote unquote, "won" this war? Or are we on the winning side if we actually broker a deal with some of these points being made?

• 26:42Tom Bilyeu?

  I won't be able to answer that question until the actual negotiated peace comes out. But if the war were to end right now, today, this would be an unmitigated disaster for the United States. If we walk out of this, all we have done is reassert that if we say we're going to do something, we're going to do it. Now, that, that isn't nothing. That is a big thing on the world stage. People understand between Venezuela and Iran, if we say we're going to do it, we're going to do it under Trump. But the world also knows that if you just wait out Trump, the odds that you get another Trump are effectively zero. And so you're going to be back to who knows what kind of deterrence position in the future. So there is always that uncertainty with the way that America operates. If the Strait of Hormuz goes from open, but like everybody's tense about it,

• 27:26Tom Bilyeu?

  to everybody's paying a $2 million fee, I think that that is much worse for the world. And so I'll be very interested to see what happens in the long run with people like the UAE, Saudi Arabia. Do they just shrug it off and go, okay, whatever, this is fine? Do they use this as a jumping off point to do like what Saudi's doing? And building other pipelines that go to other means of distribution? So across land to another sea or just across land? So that in the GCC countries, maybe all the way to Israel, that they're just literally piping the oil? That's certainly possible. In the long run, things will find a balance again. But I think right now, we have done an extraordinary job of alienating our allies, making us seem unhinged on the world stage.

• 28:09Tom Bilyeu?

  So I think as of right now, today, far more damages come out. Now, if on the other side of this, on the other hand, what we get is an Iran that is more like Venezuela. It's not necessarily regime change, though Trump is billing it as such. But a regime that is more willing to negotiate because they don't want to see you blast them into oblivion. I just hold fast and steady to if we can get all of the countries in the Gulf, in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Gulf, if we can get all of them to think economically, then we've got an incredible opportunity. The Gulf region is already, it is already the place where all the capital in the world is aggregating and then being disseminated from. Now, that may change, given the instability that we see right now, but if that can settle down

• 28:54Tom Bilyeu?

  and we really do get this working from a dollars and cents standpoint, then this could be an incredible victory. Those dollars keep flowing into the US. The US markets remain the best markets. If we can reaffirm the Petro dollar, that would be a gigantic win for the US. If we can have a relationship with Iran that allows us to have more influence, I think we're probably going to have to give up on control at this point, but more influence on the oil that makes its way to China. Basically, stop giving them discounted oil and at least get it back on the global market at normal prices. Like, those things would be a win. If Iran is like, we're not going to pursue a ballistic missile regiment anymore, we're not going to go after nuclear weapons at all, like, and with all the other things I said, this would be a huge win. As of right now, today,

• 29:39Tom Bilyeu?

  you're not there. And so, we are still in a situation where if you wrap this up today with things as they are now, it would be an unmitigated disaster.

• 29:49Speaker 01

  I think that there's this uniquely American kind of shield we have around us, where we are seeing ourselves as the hero in every story. And I understand that it's a, was it main character syndrome? We are the main characters in the world, we're the main characters globally, we're the main characters in history.

• 30:04Tom Bilyeu?

  That we're the main character.

• 30:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, that we're the hero. But when we go into other countries, they hear what we're saying, they hear what we celebrate, they hear what we are championing. And to me, that seems like we are perpetuating a conflict even more. Somebody had like a really good tweet about this, where they say, no, you don't get it. When Trump says a whole civilization will die tonight, he's being hyperbolic and posturing. Unlike when Iran says death to America, which is actually a very serious threat, should definitely serve as a basis for an invasion.

• 30:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Such a great point.

• 30:33Speaker 01

  You know what I mean? So it's one of those things where Khomeini, the person we killed, the OG one, he even Said deaf to America is deaf to American. So he would have said deaf to the American Epstein class. I think America would be like, oh, okay, we get what you're saying now, but they shorthanded deaf to America. And then Trump will say a whole civilization will die tonight. You can allegedly say what you want about the girl school bombing. You can allegedly say what you want about the Trump, the bridge bombing. But there is some little boy that whether my parents got killed in the school, the bridge now made my dad lose his job. Something has happened that America did that is changing my life forever.

• 31:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 31:04Speaker 01

  And I don't think a 10, 15 point, 16 point peace plan is going to solve that problem. And then in 30 years from now, we're going to have some Iranian insurgency terrorist organization that is birthed. And we're going to be like, oh, my gosh, these people are so uncivilized. They're just bad people. We need to bomb them and we don't understand the consequences are our actions.

• 31:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 31:23Speaker 01

  So there is something to the, I understand we have to do, might makes right. We have to fight for our resources. But then do we also, we also have to be very honest about the consequences of that fight.

• 31:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 31:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 31:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Very well said. I'm not even sure there's more to say to that.

• 31:39Speaker 01

  Last thing on this beat, there's some people in the chat that are saying we want the isolationist, like it's, it's a net positive for us. It sounds good and I think that it's okay, but to your point, we have debt, we have civil war. Like if Trump came out tomorrow, I'm out of Iran. I'm like, Israel, take care of the rest from now on. If it's not on the North American continent, I don't want no problems. Canada, let's talk Greenland, let's talk Cuba, let's talk, let's be friends. He changed his rhetoric. He tied it up together. He wins the midterms. He somehow gets out of this three card monte with two cards missing. He sweeps the board. Would we then be able to go back to growing and, and actually unifying in a way? Cause right now I don't see anything that would indicate to me that we're going to get the debt or the civil war problem solved in the next four, five, 10 years.

• 32:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. Well, you better solve it within 10 years because if you don't, you go bankrupt and you have guaranteed revolution or civil war for sure, for sure, for sure. Keep in mind, every country ever that has had more than 130% GDP for longer than like 18 months has ended up in open conflict. The only exception is Japan. We do not have Japan's culture. We are not homogenous. We will tear each other apart for sure. We're doing it now.

• 32:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 32:44Tom Bilyeu?

  So at 120, what almost 123.

• 32:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Percent that to GDP were at each other's throats for get it. We will never make it 230. So you are on a ticking clock to get your sorted out. And right now, your only hope is growth. Like literally, people better have like little R2D2 statues in their home and be praying to the gods of AI. That they like burn incense or whatever for our boy. Because if you can't get AI to work like literal AI magic, then you go bankrupt. Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned.

• 33:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

• 33:26Speaker 01

  We got to talk about Anthropic, which to me should have been a more bombshell development. I think on the streets, in the culture, they're leading the AI race now. ChatGPT filled with the bag Gemini had its pop. Claude is now number one. There was an accidental leak of this entire source code now. Is this the death of the company? This seems like it can be.

• 33:42Tom Bilyeu?

  It's not going to be the death of the company, but Anthropic is now basically an open source company. They just didn't intend to be. Anthropic shipped a routine update to Claude code on Tuesday. And at the same time, accidentally included a debugging file that pointed directly to a publicly accessible zip archive. That contained roughly 500,000 lines of Claude's own source code. Nobody had to hack anything. The file was just there. The guy that did it obviously got fired and I don't, I just don't think he realized that it was exposed. Brutal. There's a security researcher, Chow Fan Chu, who spotted the exposure and posted the direct link on X. Within hours, mirrored repositories were appearing all over GitHub.

• 34:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Some accumulating tens of thousands of forks. So other copies where people are starting to tweak it before Anthropic's DMCA takedowns hit. The leaked code contained dozens of unreleased feature flags for capabilities. Fully built, but not yet shipped, including the ability for Claude to review its own sessions to improve future performance. Gets basically like a persistent assistant running in the background mode, making things better. While users are idle, which is incredible. By the way, I can't wait for that feature to come out and it allows. For remote control from a phone or separate browser. So they basically just released a detailed engineering roadmap handed to every competitor for free.

• 35:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Anthropic's confirmed that it happened. They called it a release packaging issue caused by human error, not a security breach. Thankfully, no customer data was released. And they must be very grateful. No model weights were exposed. That's like the real proprietary sauce. So basically, the thing that is protecting them from this being not more catastrophic is that and the fact that they're still a private company. If they were a public company, oh, God. They would have been hammered by this. Now, this is the second major data incident at Anthropic and under a week. Five days earlier, a CMS misconfiguration exposed nearly 3,000 internal files,

• 35:47Tom Bilyeu?

  including a draft blog post detailing a powerful unreleased model known internally as Mythos. It's also the second time this specific mistake has happened. Yikes. A nearly identical source map leak hit an earlier version of Claude code in February of 25. That also reduces the sort of catastrophe of all this in that this happened before. It didn't do anything to slow down their progress. But two significant accidental disclosures in five days at a company whose core pitch is safety first AI? That raises concerns. The blueprint for building a Claude code competitor now is also considerably easier because you have an exact understanding of so much of what they do. So, yeah, this, this was a pretty rough blunder. They're not loving it. I assure you of that.

• 36:32Speaker 01

  So you're saying this isn't the death blow, but it's just something they'll just have to kind of bounce back? Because the secret sauce, like you said, it wouldn't release.

• 36:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, when I think about, there are even things that we're doing in Kaizen that I wouldn't want people to know about. And it's not like if you know about it, it breaks the company. But at the same time, like, some of these things are like, oh, I never thought of that. And now somebody's off and running with that thing. I try not to be overly precious with stuff like that. Usually, for a company of our size, the bigger problem is going to be people don't even know that we're building a video game. And so when we go to launch it in December of 2027, just getting people to be aware of the fact that we have it is going to be a far bigger issue than me. worrying about people finding some of the secrets, but there are some things that I'm like, hmm, I probably don't want people to know that we're doing that.

• 37:13Speaker 01

  On the pinnacle of Oracle's 20 to 30 K layoff and Marc Andreessen saying that AI is just the best cover story for this moment, do you believe him that the AI is causing this disruption? Or is AI just a convenient excuse right now?

• 37:26Tom Bilyeu?

  So I, I think this is twofold. One, I think it is very real that people are laying people off because of AI. I know because we've done it ourselves, not that we laid people off, but we didn't rehire roles because when they left, we were just like, this is so much easier to do without. We don't need that. It's allowed us to dramatically reduce our executive layer, which Jesus, you want to talk about cost savings because now I don't need people telling other people what to do. I can just hire the doers and they're so efficient. So I need far fewer of them, which means I need that middle management layer much less. Just from personal experience, I know that that is real. Now, I think it's also real that some of these layoffs, what percentage? I don't know, but some of these layoffs are, I'm sure, being marked up to AI, but in reality,

• 38:11Tom Bilyeu?

  AI is just the perfect cover story for people that are like, yeah, we over hired, we want to be able to reduce our workload, which frees up a massive amount. It frees up billions of dollars of free cash flow for Oracle by doing this, but we need a way to make it seem positive. And right now, Wall Street absolutely loves people laying off people for AI because it means you're getting leaner and meaner. And if you think back to what Elon already showed everybody when he went into Twitter, is that there's so much bureaucratic bloat inside of these companies that getting rid of that, if you know how to do it well, can free up a lot of people. And so I think that there's a mix. Now, I also think Marc Andreessen, who is one of the sharpest thinkers out there on tech and investing, I mean, the guy's absolutely brilliant, love him to death, hope to have him back on the show at some point, but I also think that he's got motivated reasoning.

• 38:56Tom Bilyeu?

  So he invests in a lot of these companies and he wants to make sure that AI doesn't start getting a bad reputation, that people aren't looking at AI as the great killer of jobs, because I think he has to fight back against the narrative for the public, because Wall Street loves that AI is reducing jobs, the public does not. And so Andreessen, I think, is running a bit of cover for. Like, hey, everybody, let's not panic. Like, everything's good. This is not a big deal. That's because there's a weird thing that's going to happen that's already happening. Anytime you have this major technological advancement, what you do is you wildly disrupt a generation or two. And so even though down the road, it probably, if it keeps with history, is going to create more jobs than it eliminates.

• 39:41Tom Bilyeu?

  It's still going to massively disrupt a huge swath of humanity. It happened during the Industrial Revolution. It happened during the Great Electrification. It happened during the Great Internetification. And it's going to happen again now with AI. And given how disruptive it is to the people that are, say, north of 35 years old, that's going to be real. We're going to have to contend with that. And so I think that there is a bit of motivated reasoning on behalf of Marc Andreessen, who does not want to see public opinion really turn against AI, which it certainly could. So I think he's got to be thoughtful about it.

• 40:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, that makes sense.

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