Live from NYSE | Joe Weisenthal, Emily Sundberg, Ryan Serhant, Lynn Martin

(00:21) - Joe Weisenthal is a Bloomberg financial journalist and co-host of the *Odd Lots* podcast. Joe Weisenthal discusses the midterm elections, prediction markets, the resilience of American consumers, and whether AI investment can deliver meaningful productivity gains and returns. (22:40) - Emily Sundberg, founder of the business-and-culture newsletter Feed Me, discusses its growth from a side project into an independent media company with podcasts, events, merchandise, and a production deal with Higher Ground. She also shares her views on AI’s influence, Substack’s increasingly crowded market, independent media economics, and her enthusiasm for New York’s holiday season. (40:10) - Ryan Serhant discusses expanding his media-driven real estate brokerage into competitive markets, using social content and technology to generate leads and improve the customer experience. The prominent real estate entrepreneur also examines housing affordability, limited inventory, AI-generated listings, emerging luxury buyers, and the future of major markets such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. (01:07:20) - Anthropic Q3 Revenue (01:08:25) - Europe's Fridge Hacking Scare (01:11:01) - Timeline Reactions (01:18:56) - Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange, discusses market uncertainty, blockchain-based modernization, tokenization, cybersecurity, prediction markets, and the continued appeal of U. S. capital markets. She also highlights the NYSE’s planned expansion to 23-hour trading and emphasizes combining human judgment with advanced technology to improve market efficiency and integrity. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com Codex - http://openAI.com/codex Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  You're watching TVPN.

• 0:02Speaker 01

  Today is Monday, November 2nd, 2026. We are live from the New York Stock Exchange.

• 0:06Speaker 00

  We're back.

• 0:07Speaker 01

  Here in New York. We're in New York Mag. We're featured. Not really featured.

• 0:11Speaker 00

  One sentence.

• 0:12Speaker 01

  More of a footnote, but we're technically in the New York Magazine. We're here with Joe Weisenthal.

• 0:16Joe Weisenthal?

  What's up, guys?

• 0:17Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for joining us. How are you doing?

• 0:18Speaker 00

  Our...

• 0:19Joe Weisenthal?

  Love joining you.

• 0:20Speaker 00

  The third brother.

• 0:20Joe Weisenthal?

  Thank you for coming to town.

• 0:21Speaker 01

  Yes, always good to be here.

• 0:23Speaker 00

  I had to check in.

• 0:24Speaker 01

  You know who else is in town? Ramp. Let me tell you about Ramp. Time is money, save both, easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place. So, Joe.

• 0:33Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 0:34Speaker 01

  Explain the midterms to me. What are the midterms?

• 0:38Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, you see, in the US Constitution, you know, they like the president every four years.

• 0:42Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 0:43Joe Weisenthal?

  No, here's the thing.

• 0:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 0:44Joe Weisenthal?

  You guys are probably like me in the sense where it's like, I don't know, I feel like very lucky to have a job where I don't have to talk about politics very much.

• 0:51Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 0:52Joe Weisenthal?

  It's like, oh my God.

• 0:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 0:53Joe Weisenthal?

  Thank God, like I get to talk about...

• 0:54Speaker 00

  Which is crazy, because you end up talking about politics maybe like 10 or 100 times more than us.

• 0:58Joe Weisenthal?

  I know, which is still not very much.

• 1:00Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:00Joe Weisenthal?

  But unfortunately, like, sometimes it matters. And sometimes you can't talk about markets, you can't talk about tech.

• 1:06Speaker 01

  Sure. Yeah, there's an important story.

• 1:07Joe Weisenthal?

  Eventually, so like, all right, I probably should learn a little bit about this midterm thing like you guys.

• 1:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:12Joe Weisenthal?

  This is my takeaway, you know, is that seems that the expectation from a lot of people is the Democrats are going to have a huge night.

• 1:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's what the...

• 1:20Joe Weisenthal?

  The AI world.

• 1:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22Joe Weisenthal?

  But you guys should just be paying attention to the Texas governors right now.

• 1:25Speaker 01

  Explain what's going on. Greg Abbott.

• 1:26Joe Weisenthal?

  There's basically nobody who is data center-pilled anymore, right?

• 1:30Speaker 01

  Okay, yeah.

• 1:30Joe Weisenthal?

  But Abbott is the closest thing there is.

• 1:32Speaker 01

  The last man standing.

• 1:33Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, basically. And even he, even he isn't...

• 1:36Speaker 01

  Is he flinching a little bit?

• 1:37Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, he's been flinching for months now. So it's like, he's like weird, like moratoria that are like, oh, we should do a little more environmental...

• 1:43Speaker 00

  Yeah, you can't, it wouldn't make sense for him to go into the election like super pro...

• 1:47Joe Weisenthal?

  To the expectation.

• 1:48Speaker 00

  Like, I was even talking, I was talking with a city council candidate who got endorsed by this like crazy group in my town, right? And we're like, that's a little suspicious, like, why'd they do that? And he's like, oh, like, we're just, you know, like, you know, I'm not committing to anything one way or another. Like, you kind of have to like play both sides a little bit.

• 2:06Joe Weisenthal?

  So no one is going into the election saying, I'm into data center.

• 2:09Speaker 01

  Okay, okay.

• 2:10Joe Weisenthal?

  But some people might actually believe in things like progress and development and technology and stuff like that. You know, obviously so much of the tech world, so much of the manufacturing world, as everyone sort of sees Texas as the future. Probably deep down Abbott does himself, but he's been playing it down. But, you know, up until a few weeks ago, the assumption was that it was a lock in Texas. Maybe, you know, the Senate race has been competitive for a while. Now the Democrat, James Talarico, heavily favored. But like, no, but the, but the Republican Senate nominee, most people perceive him to be like a deeply flawed candidate, like probably the least competitive Republican they could have picked.

• 2:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:48Joe Weisenthal?

  Abbott is Abbott, though. He's just like a regular Texas Republican for a long time. But it's gonna, like, now everyone thinks it's gonna be close. There was actually a poll last night that came out that had Hinojosa, his competitor, up one. He's down to about 60% in the betting market, so that rounds to 50% in my book.

• 3:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, well, I thought they built the Crystal Mall.

• 3:09Speaker 00

  The, in Brazil, it was 80% and then it traded...

• 3:12Speaker 01

  What's going on with prediction markets?

• 3:15Joe Weisenthal?

  Here's my take.

• 3:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:17Joe Weisenthal?

  I still basically trust markets. Like, I'm at core.

• 3:20Speaker 01

  You do?

• 3:20Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, including prediction markets.

• 3:22Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 3:22Joe Weisenthal?

  Like, I doubt any of us know more than what people bet, like, the collective wisdom, that whole thing, like, the collective wisdom market. I basically believe in this.

• 3:31Speaker 01

  Okay, so when you see, wait, wait, when you see a 20% to 80% upset.

• 3:37Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 3:37Speaker 01

  You think, yeah, that should happen one every five times.

• 3:40Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, I mean, I was pretty surprised. Like, this is what I think. This is what I think.

• 3:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:45Joe Weisenthal?

  Markets are really good conventional wisdom distillers, and that's actually very valuable. In other words, people will say that as a snare. They're like, oh, this is just, this is just conventional wisdom.

• 3:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 3:55Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm like, no, that's actually really good, because if we say like...

• 3:58Speaker 00

  It's priced in.

• 3:59Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, because this is a useful thing to have. There's like a meaningful difference between like 55. So we say, oh, this candidate A is favored over candidate B, right? Well, is it 55% or is it 80%?

• 4:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 4:10Joe Weisenthal?

  Now we actually have a number that we can put on it. And so it's like, oh, what is that conventional wisdom? So I think it's pretty useful. I by and large think it's like hard for most people to confidently look at any market and say like, no, this is wrong. So when a market has a Democrat, when it, at a 40% chance of winning Texas, my view is like, you gotta take that serious.

• 4:29Speaker 01

  You gotta take that seriously.

• 4:30Joe Weisenthal?

  Like, I don't know. That's all I'm saying. That's all I think. It's like, it's very unlikely.

• 4:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 4:35Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, a lot of people with serious...

• 4:37Speaker 01

  What about here in New York? Is this an important election?

• 4:40Joe Weisenthal?

  I don't think so.

• 4:41Speaker 01

  It's less important?

• 4:42Joe Weisenthal?

  I don't think, there are some people a couple of weeks ago who are like trying to make the, the Attorney General's race a thing.

• 4:48Speaker 01

  Thing, but no.

• 4:49Joe Weisenthal?

  It, I don't think so. I don't think so.

• 4:51Speaker 01

  But it's not the major swing, okay?

• 4:52Joe Weisenthal?

  It would, might be interesting to see. There's, there's been this talk, because, you know, it's a heavily Democratic state, it will remain so. Maybe, like, one possibility is that Democrats have a huge year nationally, or sorry, a huge night nationally, but that, like, some of the incumbent Democrats in the North do a little bit worse than their brethren, like some sort of like anti-incumbent bias that hurts them. I would be very shocked if anyone's talking about New York.

• 5:16Speaker 00

  What's your peak chaos? Because, because, because I just saw, I just, I just, no, just for the election, because I just saw something before we got live, which is that, apparently, there's like electrical outages in some, in Maricopa County in Arizona.

• 5:29Joe Weisenthal?

  I didn't have a chance.

• 5:30Speaker 00

  I didn't have, I didn't have a chance to, to dig in. But that, that feels like, and we were on the flight yesterday, we spoke with a buddy who's in the, the legacy media world, and he was coming out for the election. And he's like expecting this to be like all week, basically. Like, he doesn't have, he doesn't have his return flight yet.

• 5:50Joe Weisenthal?

  Interesting. So if it's like, all right, like, there's two kinds of peak chaos, I guess. One is apparently there's some big storm coming up the other half of the country. Have you guys seen the weather?

• 5:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 6:00Joe Weisenthal?

  So like, maybe that'll like in a depressed election day turn out.

• 6:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, you don't want to go out to this rain.

• 6:04Joe Weisenthal?

  People I know are like looking at the weather. It's like, oh, Democrats.

• 6:07Speaker 00

  Who do you think is behind the storm?

• 6:14Speaker 00

  Which side, so who, so what side?

• 6:16Joe Weisenthal?

  You guys must have had some of these like...

• 6:17Speaker 01

  Wee Bono. We gotta ask Wee Bono.

• 6:19Joe Weisenthal?

  You guys must have had some like weather startup guy, like those clouds.

• 6:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, I guess it's Tariq, yeah. It's a red maker. We've had a bunch, yeah.

• 6:25Joe Weisenthal?

  I know, it's funny, because it's like no one really controls the weather. It's like, well, what about those guys you had on?

• 6:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, he's literally, that's his entire pitch.

• 6:33Joe Weisenthal?

  You know what I think could be just like a very crazy outcome tomorrow? So like, you know, the, there's some questions about the Senate and who's gonna take the Senate. Number of competitive races could swing Democratic. The one, interesting one is that in Michigan, you know, there's the far-left candidate or the left candidate, Abdul El Said.

• 6:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:53Joe Weisenthal?

  I think it would be a very funny outcome from a sort of like chaos, like, people just going absolutely insane online if he ends up being the only competitive Democrat that wins. So it's like, if a Republican gets pulled out in Kansas and Iowa and all these others.

• 7:10Speaker 01

  But they lose the one that everyone's using their mind of.

• 7:12Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah. Like, I'm just thinking, what would get like people like the most insane? Because, you know, we live for fighting on Twitter, right?

• 7:18Speaker 01

  For sure, for sure.

• 7:19Joe Weisenthal?

  This is like we wake up for, to see people arguing online.

• 7:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 7:21Joe Weisenthal?

  And if that were the final outcome, like, you would have people just absolutely losing their mind.

• 7:25Speaker 01

  100%, 100%. What, what do you think of the 4D chess that the tech, the tech community is secretly behind the blue wave because they overbuilt AI compute? They want to create bans on compute development so that that reduces supply, they can drive up prices, earn more margin in the short term?

• 7:45Joe Weisenthal?

  I like this take.

• 7:46Speaker 01

  Yeah, because there's a lot of supply coming online.

• 7:48Joe Weisenthal?

  This is the, this is, this is a good take.

• 7:51Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 7:52Joe Weisenthal?

  No, I like this, because it gets to one of the things I've been thinking about, which is like, okay, and because...

• 7:57Speaker 00

  This actually might be 5D, too. It might be in the fifth dimension.

• 8:02Joe Weisenthal?

  People talk about the AI trade, right?

• 8:04Speaker 01

  Yes, yes.

• 8:04Joe Weisenthal?

  On Wall Street.

• 8:05Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 8:05Joe Weisenthal?

  And the thing that I don't totally understand is like, well, there's no consensus on who, yet, on who actually makes money. Let's just say, AI, it's like, everything goes well.

• 8:14Speaker 01

  Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 8:15Joe Weisenthal?

  It all goes well, it's great for the economy. I would still say there's not obvious consensus on like who the money makers are in that scenario, whether it's the lab companies.

• 8:23Speaker 01

  Oh, sure, sure, sure. Yeah, like, right now, there's even a, yeah, diffusion, like, the Microsoft plus Palantir versus OpenAI plus Anthropic.

• 8:30Joe Weisenthal?

  Or just like, or is it just gonna be like the chipmakers? Is it gonna be everyone else on the rest of the economy?

• 8:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, doesn't commoditize the top level.

• 8:36Joe Weisenthal?

  Is it commodity? There's ambiguity on this question.

• 8:39Speaker 01

  Yes, yeah.

• 8:39Joe Weisenthal?

  So like, it certainly seems to me, at least, I love...

• 8:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, but the bottleneck goes. They want to create bottlenecks, so they're funding data center bans to create more bottlenecks so they can trade them.

• 8:49Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah. No, this is like, because it's like, no, no, like, we want to be the winners again.

• 8:53Speaker 01

  Exactly, yeah.

• 8:54Speaker 00

  But I think, but I think AI going well to some people just means like 20% GDP growth, right? Like, that's actually, like, that's actually... No, but, but look, there was, there was a survey at a company that, that, I won't, I won't...

• 9:06Speaker 01

  Was it?

• 9:07Speaker 00

  I think it was Anth...

• 9:08Speaker 01

  It was Anthropic, but I thought the Anthropic employees were really high, but then the average American was really high, too.

• 9:13Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Everyone is expecting like double...

• 9:16Joe Weisenthal?

  Except economists.

• 9:16Speaker 01

  Yes, yes, yes, that was the funny thing.

• 9:18Joe Weisenthal?

  The economists are like, oh, yeah, it could really drive a huge productivity boom. We might get up to 3.5%.

• 9:23Speaker 01

  3.5%.

• 9:23Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah. But this is, but, you know, we joke about it.

• 9:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:27Joe Weisenthal?

  But we all should have, I mean, anytime this comes up.

• 9:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:30Joe Weisenthal?

  What will be the productivity effects of AI?

• 9:32Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 9:33Joe Weisenthal?

  It's like, what were the productivity effects of the internet? It's hard to see. You don't see them on the charts.

• 9:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:37Joe Weisenthal?

  Even though, what were the productivity effects of the mobile phone?

• 9:39Speaker 01

  I, I thought I did just see a chart in the Financial Times that showed product, worker productivity in the United States was growing and it was outpacing other countries. Did you dig into that at all?

• 9:48Joe Weisenthal?

  I know I haven't, but...

• 9:50Speaker 00

  But you could attribute it, you could attribute it to layoffs, right?

• 9:53Joe Weisenthal?

  Right. And there's, yeah, so there's like a, yeah, like, that's probably what it is, because ultimately, like, the US allowed a bunch of people to get laid off and replace, substituted them with checks. And so that slatters your productivity for a while. And also, the US is, so that probably started the divergence, and then the US economy has just been much stronger than Europe since, for the last several years. It's hard for me to imagine it's a big AI difference, but.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  Sure, sure, sure. Yeah, I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated? It feels like there's all this chaos in the market. There's a lot of fragility where it's like, oh, if this doesn't go perfectly, it could be bad. But all of that is basically just froth.

• 10:37Joe Weisenthal?

  I go back and forth all the time. I'm in this bubble in New York City. If you're walking around New York City, you cannot fathom right now that like, there's some slowdown in the consumer.

• 10:46Speaker 01

  I saw people waiting line down the block for $40.

• 10:49Speaker 00

  $10.30 for sandwiches.

• 10:50Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, no, like, New York feels absolutely, you know, everyone's like, I can't get a dinner table.

• 10:55Speaker 00

  No, I see, we see this in LA where you'll have, it'll be like Monday at 10 a.m. And people will be lines around the block for a record store.

• 11:04Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah. And I'm like, if you're walking around New York City, you could never be convinced that there is a consumer slowdown. I do think that for the, and even like when you listen to corporate executives speak, it's a little bit ambiguous. Because I've been hearing, well, we've noticed the consumer is starting to get a little bit more discriminating in their purchasing. I've been hearing that since 2022. So it's like for every year. So we noticed that the consumer is starting to trade down a little bit. I don't know. I've seen some back and forth of that. It still feels like there's a lot of spending. And this economy from every sector, this is the most important thing right now, actually, which is that, you know, you can can divide the economy into roughly three sectors. There's the household sector, the business sector, and the government sector.

• 11:45Speaker 01

  And where's the gambling sector for?

• 11:47Joe Weisenthal?

  What are the gambling?

• 11:48Speaker 01

  Because that's a huge part of our economy now.

• 11:50Joe Weisenthal?

  That's the secret.

• 11:52Speaker 00

  I did, I did see a ad on the way here that just said, predict big.

• 11:56Joe Weisenthal?

  Predict big. Just predict.

• 11:58Speaker 00

  I was like, predict, bro, predict big.

• 12:00Joe Weisenthal?

  I just predict. What do you do?

• 12:02Speaker 01

  Trade online.

• 12:04Speaker 00

  You don't really see bet big. Predict big.

• 12:07Joe Weisenthal?

  But every one of them is spending. This is the key thing. Households are spending. They're going in, they're either like selling, if they're on the top part of the K, they're like selling based on their equity accumulation. If they're on the lower side of the K, they're probably like going deeper into consumer credit. Businesses are spending either from the AI build out or just like spending on AI. And the government is spending on old people and more.

• 12:29Speaker 01

  Did you see Torsten Slok over at Apollo saying, his latest is that basically Fortune 500 having a little bit of indigestion around AI spend outside of the MAG7. MAG7 is seeing positive ROI. If you're a tech company, you can immediately deploy the AI agents, improve your software, see an ROI. But if you're the, you know, you're in the S and P 500, but you make tires or you do forestry or you do oil and gas, a lot harder to actually improve revenue or actually replace a job.

• 13:00Speaker 00

  So I think my, my stance on this is like, for this, for the overall trade to work, you have to have a massive capabilities jump, like soon. Like in Q4 of last year, everyone, everyone, everyone was like, whoa, it doesn't seem like chatbots are going to be like.

• 13:18Joe Weisenthal?

  That was 4.5.

• 13:19Speaker 00

  And then you had agents. And it's like, we, we, the, the trade right now requires that. Like Elon, Elon's saying like, yeah, like you have some deceleration, you know, like Anthropic Q3, you see a little bit of deceleration, it's still growing tremendously. And Elon is saying like, you know, basically all the SpaceX projections are like, just focus on supply, right? Which is like, we're going to bring on insane amount, don't worry about demand, we're bringing on an insane amount of supply, right? And, and that could prove to be an amazing decision, right?

• 13:55Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 13:56Speaker 00

  But we need that capabilities jump, like fast.

• 13:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, right now, there's no one outside of an engineer that can go to their boss and say, I want to spend $10,000 a month on AI. It's pretty hard if you're in marketing.

• 14:08Joe Weisenthal?

  My colleague at Bloomberg today, Talkical SP, has had a good thing. Goldman is clamping down on its non-technical employees, like vibe coding, including its traders, which I thought was pretty telling. And it said it was for both risk and productivity. So if it was just risk, you know, I know there's some issues with people, there's still anxiety about data sharing and stuff like that, or data retention or whatever. But it's also about the productivity. So it's like, maybe not every trader needs to be vibe coding up their own app, their own dashboards and stuff like that. And I thought that was a telling story that speaks to the Torsten.

• 14:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. There's something about an engineer who's actually seen what a month of engineering work does and how hard that is, and they're maybe a little bit more judicious with the token spend.

• 14:53Joe Weisenthal?

  You know, like, I'm a very big believer in what some economists, and I wish I could cite the person who like first either wrote the name, but like they call like the messy jobs thesis. We all have like, you know, within a job, we have like 30 tasks, right? And so forth. And so you could say, well, like AI is really good at this task, but it's not really a replacement for someone's job.

• 15:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, totally.

• 15:15Joe Weisenthal?

  Except maybe if you're just producing lots of code, then maybe your job isn't so messy.

• 15:19Speaker 01

  There are some jobs that look a lot like repeat tasks.

• 15:22Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 15:22Speaker 00

  Yeah, I think, I think what we need to see is like real agency. And I don't mean like, I don't mean agents of like, you're telling an agent to go and do something. You need like, you know, right now, we have the equivalent of like, every company has access to like 100 PhDs and they just like sit in the room and they don't even talk or they don't even look around, right? And so the, I do think the next leg up can come from like, hey, I'm setting a budget cap. Now use that most effectively to improve my business, right?

• 15:50Joe Weisenthal?

  No, I've played around.

• 15:51Speaker 00

  And that's effectively what you do on Meta, which is like, you're like, here's how much I'm willing to spend. Get me as many customers as you can, right? And I do feel like what, what's missing is still true agency, right? And so agents are like, almost like.

• 16:06Joe Weisenthal?

  No, it's true.

• 16:07Speaker 00

  The agents that we have today are like, really all like subagents in some ways.

• 16:11Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, that's right.

• 16:12Speaker 00

  They're only, they'll only do things that they're told to do. And so.

• 16:15Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, they're also, they're also clones of each other. Like this is like another issue, which is like, you think like, oh, if you gathered 100 PhDs in a room and told them to go accumulate customer, do whatever, it might actually work. But if it was 100 of the exact same PhD who had all done the, Alex Emaus, who's over at Google, DeepMind. Yeah, he's a cool guy. He's talked about this. Like part of the reason this hasn't really, like people haven't really cracked, like sort of like autonomous multi-agent teams, is that it's actually kind of all the same agent in many cases. You sort of need to get a Thunderdome, like battle, make them battle out with like, get them like genuinely different points of view. And I don't know if anyone's like, cracked the right orchestration for that.

• 16:56Speaker 01

  I mean, people used to just like turn up the temperature on these. Do you remember this?

• 16:59Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, I forgot about temperature. No one talks about it. Some of these things feel so ancient now.

• 17:05Speaker 01

  Going back and forth for just getting, getting like weirdness up and get it, let's get some more hallucinations. Yeah, I mean, people were saying like hallucinations are sometimes like a feature more than a bug. You don't always want to hammer it out because you want some creativity.

• 17:18Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 17:19Speaker 00

  Are you, how are you thinking about your refrigerator at home? Is it wifi connected?

• 17:24Joe Weisenthal?

  It's not wifi connected, but I've had it for like two years.

• 17:27Speaker 00

  Even if it was, you would, you would say that it wasn't.

• 17:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, you're a target.

• 17:31Speaker 00

  Lock in and heat up all your beers.

• 17:35Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, hey, so.

• 17:36Speaker 01

  Stumping someone's beers is diabolical.

• 17:38Joe Weisenthal?

  I bought my refrigerator like two years ago. Amazingly, the ice maker works. I've never had it, my whole life, I've never had an ice maker work that well.

• 17:46Speaker 01

  Luxury, king of the castle.

• 17:47Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, no, my life is pretty good these days. I got the ice maker still working. I do have a wifi enabled air conditioning and I hate it.

• 17:55Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 17:56Joe Weisenthal?

  So like I actually could, it's nice because I've like, you know, if I'm coming into town or something like that, I can like turn on the air conditioning.

• 18:01Speaker 01

  Ahead of time. Yeah, that's great. That's great.

• 18:04Joe Weisenthal?

  But I can never, like when the internet is down or whatever, like I don't know where my actual remote controls are.

• 18:10Speaker 00

  Yeah, use case. Agent runs, detects your location at JFK.

• 18:15Joe Weisenthal?

  See, this is what we're talking about. Now that would accumulate some tokens. So no, like this would get some demand going. Constantly checking Joe and whether we think he's near, near home.

• 18:24Speaker 01

  Have you booked a dinner reservation with artificial intelligence yet?

• 18:27Joe Weisenthal?

  No, I have, I have not yet. I have, and I have not booked a flight yet either. I've tried to book a flight.

• 18:35Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 18:36Joe Weisenthal?

  And I was just like, no, because it was like, it just like, I, I, so I tried using Muse, Meta's Muse to book a flight. And it like pulled up the United website.

• 18:46Speaker 01

  It's hard because like the UI is pretty, there's been decades of work on UI for showing you, does it have a connection? How much does it cost? Like all the information that you want is already vended to you. So.

• 18:57Joe Weisenthal?

  So it's like, I'm actually, look, I'm, I'm AI-pilled on that stuff. Like I think it's going to be a really nice thing. And people's like, do this, do this for me. Oh, I did have, so I was, I said this on the podcast like a week or so ago, but I had four days at home with just, it was just me and the kids. My wife is out of town. And it happened to be a stretch of a few days where there was a lot going on for both kids, you know, party and stuff. And it was just so nice being able to go into ChatGPT and take, where do I need to be in the next hour? Okay, now where do I need to be in the next hour? And I just like scan through all my.

• 19:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, I've been a fan of just take a, take a messy calendar and turn it into like an infographic that you can share in text.

• 19:38Speaker 00

  If you ever get asked to like describe one of your children to like in like a parent-teacher context, ask the AI, it will just nail it. If you're stuck, if you're stuck and you just have no idea what to say.

• 19:52Joe Weisenthal?

  All the information is there.

• 19:54Speaker 00

  Do you know what we're referencing?

• 19:56Joe Weisenthal?

  What?

• 19:57Speaker 01

  Oh, this is Marissa Mayer. Yeah, she has a new startup and the New York Times kind of cherry picked the worst, most unrelatable quote potentially. It was, it was rough. What about Halloween? What were you for Halloween?

• 20:10Speaker 00

  They're throwing, they're throwing you, they're throwing you out.

• 20:12Joe Weisenthal?

  I have no sense of whimsy.

• 20:14Speaker 01

  No sense of whimsy?

• 20:14Joe Weisenthal?

  No, no, no. I have no sense of whimsy.

• 20:17Speaker 01

  That doesn't match with my understanding of you at all.

• 20:19Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, I know. Both my kids, my son was a ninja, my daughter was a fairy, my wife put on a cowboy hat.

• 20:25Speaker 01

  I like that, I like that the family, the Weisenthal family doesn't go for specific intellectual property. Is that to stay away from potential lawsuits? No, no, no, but it is a lost art to just be like, I'm going as a zombie as opposed to like, I'm going as the rebooted Frankenstein that features Jacob Elordian or whatever. Like, people love being like, a particular moment, a meme, an IP, a character, a moment, a reference.

• 20:49Speaker 00

  They'll get there in a couple of years.

• 20:50Speaker 01

  I like just being, it's a fairy.

• 20:52Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah.

• 20:52Speaker 01

  It's a new, you know? It doesn't need to be this.

• 20:54Speaker 00

  Everyone wants to be Greg Abel. Everyone wants to be Greg Abel.

• 20:58Joe Weisenthal?

  I love that. Thank you.

• 20:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, we went hard.

• 21:00Joe Weisenthal?

  I got a, you know.

• 21:01Speaker 01

  We went, yeah, we went hard.

• 21:02Joe Weisenthal?

  The dedicated, the dedicated.

• 21:04Speaker 01

  We gotta get, we gotta get hot lots to do at Halloween episode.

• 21:06Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, we should.

• 21:07Speaker 01

  Full makeup. We'll introduce you to our people.

• 21:09Speaker 00

  We have a great, we have a fantastic.

• 21:10Joe Weisenthal?

  Tracy has a sense of whimsy that I don't have.

• 21:12Speaker 01

  Okay, so she, so we'll get her to twist her arm.

• 21:14Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 21:15Speaker 01

  There we go.

• 21:16Joe Weisenthal?

  If you work on Tracy, then she could convince me.

• 21:18Speaker 01

  Okay, well.

• 21:18Joe Weisenthal?

  But I'm just like, no, I don't believe in fun over here.

• 21:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, we can teach this old dog new tricks.

• 21:23Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, we'll see.

• 21:24Speaker 00

  I wish we had more time. Thank you so much for joining. Enjoy your tall boy.

• 21:27Speaker 01

  Enjoy your tall boy.

• 21:30Speaker 00

  I had no idea that, I had no idea that they made these.

• 21:32Speaker 01

  We're doing tall boys on the, on the stream. I'm gonna crack mine open right now. Oops. Kinda went everywhere.

• 21:38Speaker 00

  All over the computer.

• 21:39Speaker 01

  Delicious.

• 21:40Speaker 00

  But, uh, no, they really, they really are throwing you out.

• 21:42Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh, they're, yeah, it's great to see you.

• 21:44Speaker 00

  Thanks for having us.

• 21:45Speaker 01

  Let me tell you about.

• 21:46Speaker 00

  Thanks for having us in New York.

• 21:48Speaker 01

  Railway. Railway is the all-in-one and solid cloud provider. Use your favorite agents to deploy web of servers, databases, and more while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. And let me also tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless, real-time experiences and new value with Cisco. We have Emily Sundberg coming on next from Feed Me. We will be bringing her in in just a second. Jordy, let me know if there's anything else. I'm gonna also tell everyone about Shopify. Shopify has the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds, online, in-store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces.

• 22:21Speaker 00

  How many days until Christmas?

• 22:24Speaker 01

  Oh, yes.

• 22:24Speaker 00

  That's a big question.

• 22:25Speaker 01

  How many, oh, here we go. Wait, did you, did you do that or did the team know?

• 22:28Speaker 00

  This good timing. Fifty-two days.

• 22:31Speaker 01

  The first B-52 flew in 1952. That's a good fun fact. I like that.

• 22:36Speaker 00

  There you go.

• 22:37Speaker 01

  Well, we have the perfect authority.

• 22:39Speaker 00

  On the B-52.

• 22:40Speaker 01

  Christmas. We're 52 days away from Christmas. Welcome to the show, Emily. Thank you so much for being back here.

• 22:46Speaker 00

  Uh, Nathan Fielder.

• 22:48Emily Sundberg?

  Um, that.

• 22:49Speaker 00

  He wears that kinda, uh, white shirt.

• 22:52Emily Sundberg?

  My way to Halloween. Yes. You guys did a great job with Halloween.

• 22:55Speaker 01

  We try, we try. Although, we got some very serious feedback from someone who has deeper knowledge than us about Berkshire and said that there were a number of things we got wrong. We didn't have a glass eye, which I should have had. Our clothes. Uh, that's Charlie Munger. Uh, we, our clothes were not threadbare, which was something that they often sport.

• 23:17Speaker 00

  So, we went, we went so hard in the morning on Friday.

• 23:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:20Speaker 00

  And then we had to take off the, the outfits around two after the show because it takes like a team of people working to peel back all the layers. There's, it looks, it looks crazy.

• 23:29Emily Sundberg?

  Keeping the Hollywood makeup industry alive in a time of AI, though.

• 23:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:31Speaker 00

  We are. Uh, but then for Friday night, I was going out to dinner and then, uh, to an event. And so I had to put something together. I didn't wanna be costumeless.

• 23:40Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 23:40Speaker 00

  I went as Nathan Fielder. My other friend also went as Nathan Fielder, but he looked so much like Nathan Fielder that the party we were at, everyone, like, by the end of it, there was a rumor flying around that the real Nathan Fielder was there. And other Nathan Fielders would walk up to him and be like, hey, I just wanted to say like, I'm a big fan. Like, I don't mean to like.

• 24:01Speaker 01

  He just has a natural doppelganger.

• 24:02Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 24:03Speaker 01

  With the right hair color, right?

• 24:04Speaker 00

  Hair color, yeah.

• 24:05Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, the pores. They're really up close shots of the pores.

• 24:09Speaker 01

  What were you for Halloween?

• 24:10Emily Sundberg?

  I was a good daughter-in-law. I just went to my in-law's house in Connecticut and took it easy.

• 24:15Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 24:15Emily Sundberg?

  That's what I was, yeah.

• 24:16Speaker 00

  There you go.

• 24:17Speaker 01

  What about on Feed Me on the newsletter? Have you been wall-to-wall Halloween coverage or?

• 24:23Emily Sundberg?

  We did, um.

• 24:23Speaker 01

  Are you already in Road to Christmas, like us?

• 24:25Emily Sundberg?

  We, I am on the Road to Christmas, but we did a month-long screening series of scary movies at a movie theater in Brooklyn. Um, we called it Monday Scaries. That was the, the best deal we could get on renting out the theater was Monday nights.

• 24:38Speaker 01

  That's great, though.

• 24:38Emily Sundberg?

  So instead of Sunday scaries, we did Monday scaries. It was awesome.

• 24:40Speaker 01

  Yeah. What, what stuck out to you? What's the underrated scary film? What's the, well, what's your go-to?

• 24:46Emily Sundberg?

  Creep was really good. Have you seen Mark de Fosse in Creep?

• 24:48Speaker 00

  I've never watched a scary movie.

• 24:50Emily Sundberg?

  Really? Sad.

• 24:52Speaker 00

  I, I don't think I've watched a horror movie like start to finish.

• 24:54Emily Sundberg?

  And then we watched another one called Trick or Treat. Trick or Treat, which is more of like a campy.

• 25:00Speaker 01

  Okay, cool.

• 25:01Emily Sundberg?

  Halloween one, which I, um, yeah, that was great. Everyone loved to hang out. People were sort of like bringing their zines and trading zines. Did free popcorn. It's great.

• 25:11Speaker 01

  And so does.

• 25:12Speaker 00

  Like old magazines?

• 25:13Speaker 01

  But zines are like one-off, more.

• 25:16Emily Sundberg?

  More DIY. Yeah. There's a, there's a local news boom happening in Brooklyn right now. Um, a lot of it is originating on Substack. So people are kind of becoming their own little paper men and tall criers.

• 25:29Speaker 00

  Publishing on Substack but also printing it and distributing it by hand.

• 25:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, they'll put it in like a newsstand on the, just on the street, right?

• 25:35Emily Sundberg?

  Yes, yeah, exactly. Or like stacking them at cafes and stuff, or bringing them to Feed Me events to, to get it in the hands of publishers.

• 25:42Speaker 01

  Is Byline a good example of that?

• 25:43Emily Sundberg?

  Byline? I would consider a magazine, a full magazine.

• 25:46Speaker 01

  Not a zine.

• 25:47Emily Sundberg?

  But, um, there's like the Carol Gardens Chronicle and the Park Slope Gazette.

• 25:53Speaker 01

  I like that.

• 25:53Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, it's cute.

• 25:54Speaker 01

  That's fun. Okay. So now that we're, have Halloween behind us, are you fully in the sprint, the road to Christmas?

• 26:00Emily Sundberg?

  Yes, I actually said earlier today. So you know how New York Magazine does the, the approval matrix in the back?

• 26:07Speaker 01

  Yes, yes.

• 26:08Emily Sundberg?

  They said that stores that are already playing Christmas music are despicable and lowbrow.

• 26:14Speaker 01

  What?

• 26:15Speaker 00

  What?

• 26:15Emily Sundberg?

  So I think it must have been a mistake because I think it's highbrow and brilliant.

• 26:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, they should issue a correction.

• 26:21Emily Sundberg?

  Um, I agree.

• 26:23Speaker 00

  Do not show them.

• 26:23Emily Sundberg?

  My favorite bar, Pete's Tavern, put up Christmas lights yesterday.

• 26:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:28Speaker 00

  Yeah, I mean, I think the big question at this point in Q4 is like, how do you honor and respect Thanksgiving while properly giving Christmas attention and giving it enough time to bake, right?

• 26:39Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I think they can share decorations in spirit.

• 26:42Speaker 01

  Yeah. I see Thanksgiving more as like a speed bump in the road.

• 26:45Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 26:46Speaker 01

  It's like Christmas, Christmas, Christmas. You have one day, celebrate Thanksgiving, back to Christmas.

• 26:51Emily Sundberg?

  Thanksgiving is part of the Christmas season.

• 26:52Speaker 01

  Back to Christmas.

• 26:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, that's a good, that's a good way to put it.

• 26:54Speaker 01

  It is, it is. It's easy to blend in aesthetically.

• 26:56Speaker 00

  It's like the pre-game.

• 26:57Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 26:59Speaker 01

  Oh, well. Uh, reflect. So, uh, you're, you're, you're one of the most classic overnight successes, correct?

• 27:05Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 27:06Speaker 00

  Four years.

• 27:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, you have four years now in the making.

• 27:09Speaker 00

  Industry plant.

• 27:10Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 27:10Speaker 01

  How is it going? What, uh, ta- take us back through some of the early days.

• 27:15Emily Sundberg?

  Oh, gosh. Year one of Feed Me. I started it at my desk at Meta famously, Hudson Yards office.

• 27:21Speaker 01

  Oh, sort of full circle moment with the Mark Zuckerberg interview.

• 27:24Emily Sundberg?

  Sort of, yeah. Yeah, totally.

• 27:26Speaker 01

  You're like, take this job and shove it. And then you're like, now you gotta talk to me.

• 27:30Speaker 00

  And that got a super positive response, right?

• 27:32Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, that was so fun. We were together in Cannes when that was happening. Real blast. Um, yeah, it's, it's, I, when I started writing on Substack, I didn't ever expect that it would be a full-time job or even something where I started hiring people and had like a built-out company, media company. And now I'm getting photos of people running the marathon with a Feed Me hat. Or people who are on, in an airport in London, like, who see the Feed Me hoodie. It's a really good feeling. And, um, on top of that, on top of like, I feel like we all embrace sort of fun as part of this job. Um, when you start a business that is kind of a little piece of culture, it also sort of cracks open the world for you.

• 28:17Emily Sundberg?

  And you get so many interesting experiences and you meet so many cool people and you get access to secret rooms and secret gardens and like, I just, if it all was over tomorrow, I'd be so happy. Like, it's been such a fun ride.

• 28:31Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 28:32Emily Sundberg?

  I'm so happy I started when I did and that I've been able to play around for over the last few years.

• 28:37Speaker 01

  What's the latest growth initiative? Is that the job board or is there other stuff going on?

• 28:41Emily Sundberg?

  Job board isn't really a growth initiative. It's just like a fun thing to build.

• 28:44Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 28:44Emily Sundberg?

  Um, we started a podcast last year called Expense Account.

• 28:48Speaker 01

  I remember. Joe Weisenthal was one of the first guests. Fantastic episode.

• 28:51Emily Sundberg?

  Overlaps, energy.

• 28:52Speaker 01

  Go listen to it if you wanna know, if you want more Joe.

• 28:54Emily Sundberg?

  I think I was, last time I was here, we were discussing the launch.

• 28:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:57Emily Sundberg?

  Since then, we signed a production deal with Higher Ground, which is the Obama's production company, which is cool. Um, we've doing, we've been doing a lot more events. I mean, that, like, that movie series was one.

• 29:08Speaker 01

  Sure, sure.

• 29:09Emily Sundberg?

  We're throwing a pie contest this month with Walmart, which will be a blast. We have a big poker game next week.

• 29:15Speaker 00

  Pie contest.

• 29:16Emily Sundberg?

  Pie contest. Yeah, you wanna, do you bake?

• 29:19Speaker 01

  I feel like tree lighting ceremony.

• 29:20Emily Sundberg?

  We would. You could do that, yeah.

• 29:23Speaker 01

  Tree lighting ceremony. They do one here at the New York Stock Exchange. Rockefeller has one, so. You know, I, I think it's, you're, you're in the major leagues here in New York in terms of tree lighting. You're going up against some of the most elite tree lighting ceremonies, but if you can play in this league, you can play anywhere, really.

• 29:39Speaker 00

  How have you, how have you felt, how have you tried to balance, uh, covering AI? Cause something that's, uh, AI has become so unavoidable that every single media company, podcast, newsletter, et cetera, is now, is effectively like an AI. Whether they, they want to or not, it feels like, there's just like, yeah, no matter what the, the category of podcast it's in, whether it's like politics or health.

• 30:02Speaker 01

  Movie podcast and then you're like, well, we gotta talk about how AI will affect movies. Or you could be a health podcast.

• 30:07Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I mean, specifically in our podcast.

• 30:10Speaker 00

  It feels like, in some ways, like TBPN emerged at a time when every tech show was focused on politics.

• 30:18Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 30:19Speaker 00

  Not every, but like a lot of them were focused on politics. And by not focusing on politics, we created, like, people, like, were like, it was refreshing to people. And so it feels like there's almost like an opportunity right now to have like a business and culture.

• 30:34Speaker 00

  Thing that's just like, yeah, we're just not going to talk about that. There's plenty of other.

• 30:37Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I mean, it would be impossible to write about culture and business without touching upon AI. I would say it's not like a beat of ours that I'm like consistently keeping keeping my readers up. But like, I don't think anybody's reading Feed Me to know what's the latest of what's happening in AI. But whether you're writing about, you know, literary magazines or hiring or art or even like food ordering systems, like it does creep into everything. I mean, you walk around New York and you see the ridiculous bodega signs that are AI-generated photo of like a sandwich. Like it is part of the city and I do write about it probably every day.

• 31:20Emily Sundberg?

  But I wouldn't say it's something that I'm like consistently going deep on.

• 31:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. Have you used artificial intelligence to book a restaurant reservation?

• 31:29Emily Sundberg?

  No, I haven't. I'm pretty lucky that, lucky or blessed, depending on how you look at it. Most places I have a bit of a plug.

• 31:41Speaker 01

  Connection. So it's happening off of a platform.

• 31:44Emily Sundberg?

  Have you ever booked a restaurant with AI?

• 31:45Speaker 01

  I did. I did. I demo all this stuff.

• 31:47Emily Sundberg?

  What was it?

• 31:48Speaker 01

  It was just a random restaurant in my town. And I just said, like, I need a reservation for tonight. Just go find something, book it. It worked.

• 31:56Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 31:56Speaker 01

  It used OpenTable though, which was weird. So I could have gone to OpenTable, but it was slightly faster to just type, I need a table for Tuesday.

• 32:04Emily Sundberg?

  I like the adventure.

• 32:06Speaker 01

  Of.

• 32:07Emily Sundberg?

  Finding the reservation.

• 32:08Speaker 01

  Finding the restaurant yourself?

• 32:09Emily Sundberg?

  Yes.

• 32:09Speaker 01

  Yes, yes, yes, for sure.

• 32:10Speaker 00

  I like showing up to a popular place with no reservation and making it happen.

• 32:15Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 32:15Speaker 01

  Well, that's a new hack. So you can go to basically any restaurant in the city now because everyone's using these agents. You can just say, oh, the reservation, it's under Muse. And they'll be like, oh, yeah, like there's a bunch of them under Muse. And you can just take someone else's reservation.

• 32:26Emily Sundberg?

  Or you can just go to the ATM, get a little cash.

• 32:28Speaker 01

  That works too, a little fashion.

• 32:30Emily Sundberg?

  It works.

• 32:31Speaker 01

  Yeah. In the age of cybersecurity incidents, maybe more than ever.

• 32:35Speaker 00

  What's the overall Substack market update?

• 32:39Emily Sundberg?

  Did, oh, let's see, this overall Substack market update, I think that it's getting really crowded on there. Um, I don't know if you guys saw this, but Tyler's.

• 32:49Speaker 00

  There's almost like some like, I'm like, there's now like a, I've been seeing content of people that are promoting it in the way that like guys in like the 2010s promoted like e-commerce. It was like, here's how you can make like, well, like, here's how anyone can make 50K a month.

• 33:07Emily Sundberg?

  It's not just guys. There's a lot of women doing that too.

• 33:09Speaker 00

  Well, no, no, and I'm saying Substack now is, is, is, um, I'm seeing the like, I write one newsletter a week and I make X amount of money.

• 33:17Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, there's a lot of that. It's sort of like LinkedIn speak has quickly moved over to Substack speech. Like, here's how I make $500,000 a year on Substack and you can too, which, um.

• 33:29Speaker 01

  I like the sound of that.

• 33:30Emily Sundberg?

  I haven't really clicked on any of those, but maybe we could grow that way. Yeah, I think Substack people will continue to like, try it out. I think it's really hard to get, I, I, I've said this before, but I really do think that part of Feed Me's success was just being there early, like early advantage. Yeah.

• 33:47Speaker 01

  Yeah. Although at the same time, I mean, Substack launched in 2016. So there's a whole different story that you could tell where it's like, in that moment, if you go back, there were probably very established Substackers and it was probably seen as like, oh, it's probably late because it's really competitive. There's already all these great Substacks, but of course it was still early. That's always the story.

• 34:06Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, for sure.

• 34:08Speaker 00

  What were you saying about Beehive?

• 34:10Emily Sundberg?

  Oh, I included a growth chart in my four-year letter.

• 34:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:15Emily Sundberg?

  And, and then like Tyler from Beehive was using it as a, as an example of like growth slowing down and why Beehive is like a better platform. But, um, I don't know how these platform wars are going to shake out, but it doesn't really feel like a war.

• 34:32Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean, I, I'm personally in favor of like, accepting the fact that you might eventually reach your total addressable market. And then your, and then your job is not to go and find people that are further and further outside of your target demographic. It's about how do you actually build the community further with movie nights and all sorts of podcasts and all sorts of different things for the people that actually like the content fit in that demo.

• 34:56Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I'm kind of curious what the general media landscape is going to look like in a year. It seems like everybody's sort of building their own little digest.

• 35:05Speaker 01

  Yeah. What do you think of the, uh, the, I don't know what they call it. It's like the round trip. It's like you work for traditional media, you leave, and then on day, on the day that you leave, you sign with traditional media for distribution, but you still own your equity. How have you processed those types of deals?

• 35:19Emily Sundberg?

  What's an example of that?

• 35:19Speaker 01

  An example would be, uh, Hard Fork turning into Machine Gods. They left the New York Times. They said, they said, I, I can't possibly work with traditional media anymore. And then they sign with NPR. But obviously, the, the read on this is not, oh, they don't like traditional media. It's that the economics are way different when you own the property yourself, but then you're licensing to NPR.

• 35:41Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, for distribution.

• 35:42Speaker 01

  The New York Times owns your property and you don't see any of the upside there. Joanna Stern would be another example.

• 35:47Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 35:47Speaker 01

  Where she went independent from the Wall Street Journal, but then had a TV distribution deal for some of her content.

• 35:52Speaker 00

  I'm going codependent.

• 35:54Speaker 01

  Going codependent, I suppose, could be the term.

• 35:55Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah. I mean, I think it's hard to run a whole business by yourself when you start looking at like legal fees, social media, the marketing team, uh, the person who's actually pressing send, like it's a lot of work. And, um, I think it's smart that some of these people are outsourcing some of that work to these places that have in-house experts. I wish I had some of that sometimes.

• 36:16Speaker 01

  I mean, some of the deals I, I think are, are not huge economics, not huge on support, but it helps you sort of carry some of your prestige forward. Because when you leave legacy media and you're, you're post legacy, as we say, the post legacy creator can be stuck in like, oh, wow, I need to rebuild my, my prestige. And if you can on day one, have a big logo next to you in some way, that's probably valuable. What is your iPhone Duo review, your iPhone Duo take? Are you pro Duo?

• 36:50Emily Sundberg?

  Haven't used it yet, but I read this morning that they've been snapping. Yeah, I sat next to dinner. Um, I was sitting next to a friend the other night and he had one.

• 36:56Speaker 01

  Okay. So, uh, we dug into the snap issue, the screen breaking, the crack, crack gate. It is happening, but in a very small amount.

• 37:05Emily Sundberg?

  Do you guys have them?

• 37:06Speaker 01

  No.

• 37:07Speaker 00

  I think, I think I have to get one. I talked, I talked so much.

• 37:11Speaker 01

  Mark Cannon loves it. TJ Parker loves it. There's some really positive.

• 37:15Emily Sundberg?

  What's with the snap?

• 37:16Speaker 01

  So the snap is a manufacturing defect in the hinge, maybe like less than 1%, a very small amount, probably less than 0.1% of Duo ship with this flaw. If you open it, it's going to break almost immediately. If it doesn't, and you get through the first week, you're probably good forever. And so they're going to fix that. Forget that the crack is even an issue because you will have one that doesn't crack within a week.

• 37:41Emily Sundberg?

  Is this the first time you guys haven't jumped at a new iPhone?

• 37:44Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 37:47Speaker 00

  I mean, I jump, I jump as soon as, I, I jump as soon as the device is deprecated, basically.

• 37:53Emily Sundberg?

  Okay.

• 37:53Speaker 00

  Basically, basically as soon as it.

• 37:55Emily Sundberg?

  Mine's still smashed from Ken.

• 37:56Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 37:57Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 37:57Emily Sundberg?

  Even though I have the new.

• 37:58Speaker 01

  I think I might have skipped one a year, a year or two ago.

• 38:01Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah.

• 38:02Speaker 00

  I just stopped, I just stopped caring. Every once in a while, I'm like, okay, it'd be nice if it was, it was, had a longer battery life and a slightly better camera. And then I'll upgrade. But.

• 38:13Emily Sundberg?

  Are you living the case-free life?

• 38:14Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah. It's, it's shockingly robust.

• 38:17Speaker 01

  The patina as well is what they say. It is nice patina.

• 38:19Speaker 00

  Born in.

• 38:19Speaker 01

  This one actually wears in even better because, uh, the scratches blend in. When you have the color, the color rubs off.

• 38:26Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I have the orange.

• 38:26Speaker 01

  It's really, yeah, I'm sure you have a lot of patina on it.

• 38:28Emily Sundberg?

  Yeah, I do.

• 38:29Speaker 01

  Which can be a, a choice.

• 38:30Emily Sundberg?

  How long are you guys in the city?

• 38:32Speaker 00

  Twenty hours.

• 38:33Speaker 01

  We're leaving tonight.

• 38:34Speaker 00

  Twenty hours.

• 38:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, 20 hours.

• 38:36Emily Sundberg?

  Are you back before 2027?

• 38:38Speaker 01

  What do you mean? Oh, uh, in New York. I mean, we'll be back in LA before 2027, back tonight.

• 38:43Speaker 00

  Hopefully.

• 38:44Speaker 01

  But, uh, yes, I think we'll be back. We got to come back. There's going to be so many tree lightings.

• 38:49Emily Sundberg?

  Yes, yes.

• 38:50Speaker 00

  Yeah, the road to, road to Christmas.

• 38:51Speaker 01

  You, you got to hit Rockefeller.

• 38:53Emily Sundberg?

  You were saying there's a lot of Christmas colors in here.

• 38:55Speaker 01

  It's starting.

• 38:56Speaker 00

  A lot of red today. Actually, nice, nice mix. It's kind of balanced out. I mean, look at this sign over here. It's kind of a perfect balance.

• 39:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:04Emily Sundberg?

  Tomorrow's a new day.

• 39:05Speaker 01

  That's good. Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.

• 39:07Emily Sundberg?

  Thanks for having me, guys. See you soon. Take it easy.

• 39:10Speaker 00

  Say, uh, give our best to the team.

• 39:12Speaker 01

  Let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI, own the data platform that powers it. And let me also tell you about Consol. Consol builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. And last, since we are at the New York Stock Exchange, let me tell you about Public. Invest across all asset classes, automate anything with AI agents, run trading strategies, risk management, money movements, and monitor markets with AI agents for investing on public. Our next guest is Ryan Serhant. Very excited to have him on the show for the first time. Uh, he's the founder and CEO of Serhant, and we're going to bring him in in just a second. I'll also tell you about Figma.

• 39:54Speaker 01

  First time we ever came here was for, because of Figma. Agents, meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. What a day for the Figma IPO. And we have Ryan Serhant jumping on in just a second here at the New York Stock Exchange. Ryan, welcome to the show. Thanks for meeting me. Thanks so much for coming on.

• 40:16Speaker 04

  To New York.

• 40:16Speaker 01

  New York, yeah. How mu- how often are you here? How much do you travel these days?

• 40:21Speaker 04

  Travel a lot, uh, probably every other week I'm on the air, either opening a market or visiting a market that we're in. I'm here this week.

• 40:30Speaker 01

  Is there a number one destination? Is LA the number one destination that you're going to often? Or is it opening markets that you're always in a different place?

• 40:37Speaker 04

  The next one is the number one.

• 40:39Speaker 01

  What's been the most exciting recent market you've been?

• 40:41Speaker 04

  We just opened in Chicago.

• 40:42Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 40:43Speaker 04

  Earlier this year, we opened across California, so I opened in Tahoe, San Francisco, uh, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego on one day. So it was a lot.

• 40:51Speaker 01

  That's good.

• 40:51Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 40:52Speaker 01

  Were you in the air that day?

• 40:53Speaker 00

  Why, why, why?

• 40:53Speaker 04

  We just, we hit them all the same time.

• 40:54Speaker 00

  Why were all those places not worth like at least one day?

• 40:58Speaker 04

  Hey, well, we, we, when we did the launches, we went one day at a time. But for us, Department of State is per state.

• 41:04Speaker 01

  Oh, sure.

• 41:04Speaker 04

  And so for us to do it, if I started in just one city, um, we have to be on the offense all the time. Because then we'll be under attack by competitors. So I have to hit them all on one day in a sneak attack. Same thing in Texas this year in July, I opened Texas and I did Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Dallas in one day.

• 41:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 41:21Speaker 04

  I just did Chicago. Chicago's by far the spiciest and so we'll go and do our launch event for Chicago next week.

• 41:26Speaker 01

  Why is it spicy?

• 41:26Speaker 04

  Spicy. Is, um, uh, it's aggressive. It's mean. There's a lot of like in our business. Yeah, in the real estate brokerage business, they don't like newcomers. They don't like changing things. What I've found about this industry is people will spend so much money, so much blood, sweat and tears defending where they've been instead of building for where they're going. And anyone who challenges the status quo and their purse strings, and I'm sure this is the way it is in every business, I sue you. I just sue you. That's what they do. They use, oh, absolutely.

• 41:57Speaker 00

  Really? And what, um, is it suing over a specific transaction?

• 42:02Speaker 04

  No, they sue over torturous interference, poaching recruit, anything that they can come up with. I've been sued over photos before.

• 42:09Speaker 00

  And that's specifically so they can say like, oh, don't work with that guy. We're in a lawsuit with him. He's out of town.

• 42:15Speaker 04

  Hundred percent.

• 42:16Speaker 00

  Like, I imagine, I imagine there's like a playbook, like when you come into a market, the, the other brokers have this like playbook where they're like, this is how to talk about Ryan.

• 42:26Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah, I know that too. This is, this is why we hate him. This is why we don't like their company. They're, they're young. They use social. We don't understand it. They're AI native. We don't get what that means. Don't go over there.

• 42:37Speaker 00

  And a lot of these markets, I'm assuming there's like an existing brokerage that has been dominant for a long time and is like incredibly lazy.

• 42:45Speaker 04

  Yeah, it depends. It depends on every market.

• 42:48Speaker 00

  So, like specifically because at least from my, my understanding of real estate is primarily, primarily through living in Malibu. Where like half of my friends are real estate agents and they're all like very friendly to each other, like when we're at the farm market or at a barbecue. But you start to realize like they all like just absolutely hate each other and don't, you know?

• 43:09Speaker 04

  Yeah, they're sharks and they're hyper competitive.

• 43:10Speaker 00

  They're willing to like work together, like at times, you know, if they're forced into situations, but it's very funny to, to interact with. But then it seems like in every market, you're going to have one group that sort of becomes dominant. And then through that doesn't have to like, they stop having to innovate or, or really like put the work in because they get some type of like momentum that gets built up.

• 43:31Speaker 04

  Sure, yeah. No, comfort is the death of innovation. And so we operate in a very, very different way and we go into new markets and it's not to disrupt. I mean, if anything, we disrupt for good and we try to do what's best for the consumer. Like what is best for the home buyer and the home seller? We're in an incredibly tight marketplace right now and it's not just in luxury markets. It's across the country, right? You have an affordability problem. You have an inventory problem. We're going to do less home sales this year in the United States than, than we ever thought we were going to do this year. September had less pending contracts than in any single month in 30 years.

• 44:03Speaker 00

  Yeah, worse than like oh eight and two thousand.

• 44:05Speaker 04

  In terms of pending contracts? Yeah, absolutely. Because rates have spiked. They're up a hundred basis points year over year. You know, the, the first time starter price, I think it was in before COVID, so end of 2019, early 2020. There were 80 cities in the United States where a starter home was a million dollars and above, and that was a lot. That's a lot of cities. Today it's just over 260.

• 44:26Speaker 01

  Whoa.

• 44:27Speaker 04

  It's 260 plus cities where a starter home is a million dollars and above. So that a million dollars is.

• 44:31Speaker 01

  And the current mortgage rates, it's eight grand a month or something.

• 44:33Speaker 04

  Yeah, a million dollars is no longer means you made it. A million dollars is now just the entry price.

• 44:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's rough.

• 44:38Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 44:39Speaker 00

  Um, how, what is your mindset with the team when market conditions are horrible? Like I, just because like, like I think in our world, like startups specifically, like the market, the market can be shrinking, but if you're a young company, you can be growing. You can be, and you can be going on attack.

• 44:55Speaker 04

  So we've been lucky.

• 44:56Speaker 00

  Like if you, you can barely grow your market share, but if you can still like actually grow your revenue.

• 45:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, totally.

• 45:02Speaker 00

  Um, and so I think it's an important reminder, like just because the market is bad, doesn't mean we have to just sort of roll over and accept that like, oh, it's going to be a bad few years for us. We got to hunker down. You're like, I'm going on the attack.

• 45:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, my, my first day in the real estate business, even just as an agent here in New York City, was the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in 2008. That was a bad day, but for me, because I was brand new, everything was up from there. You start at the bottom. Same thing when we started Serhant, we started the company, uh, in September 2020. There was, in New York, there was no vaccine. Everything was shut down. The Wall Street Journal, New York Times said, if you're thinking about buying real estate, you're an idiot. And then we made a bet on the future and the future paid us back from there. Same thing now. We trade on the way up and we trade on the way down. And I think the market being tight enables us to be as efficient as possible in doing, like I said before, like what is the consumer upside? Where can we actually help people move?

• 45:52Speaker 04

  People talk about brokerage all the time, but I don't think anyone's ever woke up and said, man, I wonder what real estate brokerage I'm going to work with to go and find my next home or sell my home. They wake up and they say, no, I want to move. Who's going to make it as frictionless as possible? Who's going to save me as much money as possible? And the traditional brokerage model, um, it's kind of like Blockbuster. If you've kind of read those stories where they wake up every day and they say, how do we manage customer dissatisfaction? To the point at which we can minimize churn. So you have churn on an inverse.

• 46:25Speaker 00

  Find their breaking point.

• 46:25Speaker 04

  Exactly. Of customer dissatisfaction. Wherever that inflection point is, that's where we will exist as a business. That is real estate brokerage in the United States and I'm doing my absolute best to try to fix it.

• 46:38Speaker 01

  Yeah. What else is, uh, in the organization? Because there's a, a large social media team. Like what makes your organization different than the brokerages, like from a structural perspective?

• 46:49Speaker 04

  I mean, the first thing we started with was, we started as a media company that sold real estate in 2020 and 2021. That was our, our first thing. We were the most followed and subscribed to real estate brand on earth. And we said, we're going to use that in for two ways. One, it's we're going to have zero CAC. We have no customer acquisition costs. We've never bought revenue before. We never will. And it's been a kind of a, an ethos for us as we've grown the business. It's been completely organic and it's enabled us to grow a hundred percent year over year. And two, we're going to be able to properties in front of more qualified eyeballs than anybody else. So we can sell our homes faster and for more money. And so we do that. And so every market we go into, the market demands us coming there versus us sitting there and saying, no, we have to grow.

• 47:30Speaker 04

  I don't think growth is a, is a business plan. I think doing our fiduciary duty to our customers is the business plan.

• 47:35Speaker 01

  So walk me through, you're wearing another microphone. You're recording now?

• 47:37Speaker 04

  So many microphones, yeah.

• 47:38Speaker 01

  And so like break the fourth wall a little bit. Tell me about like how you get the most out of a day in your life from a maximum.

• 47:47Speaker 00

  Yeah, I was, I sent John one of the green screen, uh, clips that you do.

• 47:51Speaker 01

  So good. I'm like, yeah, let me pitch all these properties in one day. Like, I love that stuff.

• 47:56Speaker 04

  I used to do, uh, like I did Million Dollar Listing New York on Bravo for 10 years. We did three spinoff shows for Bravo. And then we started a YouTube vlog. So I was going into all these Bravo conversations and meetings.

• 48:08Speaker 00

  Million Dollar Listing is such a funny name in hindsight.

• 48:11Speaker 04

  Wouldn't work today. Wouldn't work today. But all, ever, all anyone focused on was, was YouTube at the time. And they still do. You go into any Netflix, any, any, any streamer meeting. Their number one focus is on YouTube and the power of social, because that's where people are getting their content, right? The content is in the clips. The clips are the content. So Instagram through Meta last week announced features, which is coming. So up to 90 minutes of video and you can string features along. So clip by clip by clip. I think you're going to see the next Emmy nominated show that is going to be created in that way. The same way you're probably going to see Nathan Fielder in eight 24, eight two four, you know, potentially winning the best documentary film with a, best picture with a documentary. The world is completely changing because the viewer has changed. So yes, about the microphones. I, my, our production team is 110.

• 48:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 48:58Speaker 04

  We have Serhant Studios in every single market we're in.

• 49:00Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 49:00Speaker 00

  So interesting to see you build a local team.

• 49:02Speaker 04

  Correct.

• 49:03Speaker 00

  Cool.

• 49:03Speaker 04

  So we have, we run them through what we called a, a studio suite so that they're trained, so that they can operate at our speed. But also create the type of content for a property that we know will grab the most attention in every single marketplace. From Red Note in Asia to TikTok here, to South America, to South Africa and everywhere in between. And then it's a, it's a lead aggregator. We generate more organic lead flow through content than any real estate brokerage does combined.

• 49:32Speaker 01

  And across that 110, you have cinematographers, editors, content strategists, drone pilots, like what, what, how, how structured is the team?

• 49:40Speaker 04

  In the individual, in the individual markets, the studio team is for the most part, they are, are either licensed or trained to do everything that they need to do. So they can operate drones and I wouldn't say they're so much cinematographers as they've gone through our bootcamp and they know how to shoot property. They know how to, you know, produce hooks. They know how to work within dialogue. They know how to do different types of Zoom tours. And the types of content that we put up on LinkedIn are not the same types that we put on TikTok, YouTube, et cetera. And so we were able to turn kind of that, that social machine into a lead machine for salespeople and people who need salespeople. We combine those two together. They create more content around deal flow and round and round and round we go.

• 50:21Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 50:21Speaker 04

  And then this and LinkedIn and the news and Squawk Box down there is all general thought leadership.

• 50:27Speaker 00

  Does the MLS need to ban AI content from listings?

• 50:30Speaker 04

  I was talking to Ben Coleman this morning, actually, from a company called Reality Defender. He presented, uh, just before me at, uh, PIC, the Goldman Private Innovative Company Conference in Vegas last year. And he, uh, he asked me if I wanted to talk to him about the reality badge that he could create. That would automatically detect if a listing photo of a living room, a bedroom, et cetera, was being created using AI.

• 50:52Speaker 00

  I don't even, I don't even want, I like, cool, cool idea. I don't want that. I think it needs to be banned. Like I think that I, like, I basically in the last six months, I used to be able to go to a listing and just be like, cool. If it's a piece of dirt, I don't care. Show me the piece of dirt. If you have some actual renders that you've done that are like going through the planning process, that's cool. Maybe throw those in, but it is a horrible experience going through a listing and seeing like, okay, that's a real photo.

• 51:20Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 51:21Speaker 00

  Is that a real photo? It looks like they kind of like upres, upres it or whatever.

• 51:24Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 51:25Speaker 00

  And I think that, I think that, um, there's like real, there. There should be real like legal issues with like misrepresenting a property.

• 51:34Speaker 04

  There will be.

• 51:34Speaker 00

  It should be on the consumer. Maybe it should be in Zillow or in Redfin or in any of these tools.

• 51:41Speaker 04

  Brokerage.

• 51:41Speaker 00

  You should be able to like remix it yourself in the app. But having sellers and agents actually do it, I think is totally wrong. It's annoying to the point where it's a negative signal now, or I assume like your property probably sucks. If you feel like you need to do this, right? It's not, it won't sell itself.

• 52:01Speaker 04

  I think yes and no. Virtual staging has existed for quite some time.

• 52:05Speaker 00

  Sure.

• 52:05Speaker 04

  As long as it's annotated and says this is virtually staged, so you can see it. I'll tell you, most buyers don't know what they want until you show it to them.

• 52:13Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 52:13Speaker 04

  And so I agree with you. I don't think anyone should, there should be no lying. There should be no deep fakes. No one should be duped. If you have a plot of dirt, like you said, and you show that there's a house there without indicating that that house isn't there and you show up. That is lying. They should come after your license for that. That is poor consumerism.

• 52:30Speaker 00

  But I just think it needs to be separated out. There should be like, here's the reality and here's the possibility. And they're like two different sections of the app.

• 52:36Speaker 04

  Yeah, I agree.

• 52:37Speaker 00

  And right now it's like all combined and it's really chaotic.

• 52:40Speaker 04

  Companies have existed. They've tried to do that. Consumers won't use them. And so it's a cost that no one, like no one actually will do it. They just say, show me what I think it could be and let me go through. But I agree with you. I don't think there should be fake AI-generated photos. New York has already banned those.

• 52:55Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 52:55Speaker 04

  So Mamdani has already worked on that and they're going to go ideally market by market, but it is actually beneficial.

• 53:01Speaker 00

  Something I agree with.

• 53:01Speaker 01

  There you go. There you go.

• 53:03Speaker 04

  He's actually done a lot for the city.

• 53:05Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. What's the overall, like, how is New York, what are the trends in New York?

• 53:12Speaker 04

  Trends in New York are similar to the rest of the country. You have two buyer demographics. You have people who are buying with income and you have people who are buying with wealth.

• 53:21Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 53:22Speaker 04

  And that is it. Whether you're buying with your parents' income or your parents' wealth, which is a major part of the buyer sphere right now. Because it's the parents, the baby zoomers and the Gen Xers who created this mess in the first place. Coming out of World War I with their grandparents and then coming out of World War II. Everyone sat down together as a community in this country and decided, you know what we're going to do? We're going to create a system that rewards stability and punishes mobility and we'll figure it out later. And later is here.

• 53:50Speaker 00

  Later's now.

• 53:51Speaker 04

  It's here and we punish mobility. And so people can't move. Like you have 100% stagflation, like we are, we are in it.

• 53:59Speaker 04

  Pricing is incredibly high. Inventory is incredibly low. And even if you have a great buyer on the table, where do you go? We deal with this in San Francisco, like crazy right now. Pricing in the San Francisco Bay area now is up, I think 17 and a half percent year over year, but that's not even a. It doesn't even capture what we're dealing with. 92% of every home in San Francisco this year has sold well over the asking price. Not just over the asking price, but well over the asking price. And that's in part, not because of what the home's worth. It's how much to get that person to move elsewhere. You know, we do deals on, we just offered a, we had an oceanfront property in Palm Beach on the island. The owner had paid $45 million for it.

• 54:40Speaker 04

  My client offered him $125 million to move and the seller told me to fuck myself.

• 54:48Speaker 04

  Not because he was angry. He said, where do I go? Look at my other options around here. There are no other options. There's less than 80 oceanfront lots. What do you, what do you do? I sold the Estee Lauder site last year for just under $200 million. So we went and bought a lot of others. I think it was the most expensive residential sale of all of 2025. In part because where else are you going to go? Florida's estate is the lowest tax state on the ocean with ease of access to Europe and a better time zone.

• 55:16Speaker 00

  Interesting.

• 55:17Speaker 04

  But New York is strong. The luxury market is strong. I just sold Richie Saggy and the CEO of Fashion Nova penthouse and.

• 55:23Speaker 00

  He bought the one, right?

• 55:24Speaker 04

  He bought the one. He also bought the penthouse of 111 Murray on Friday. So that was in the mansion section. You guys will go through it.

• 55:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, we love it.

• 55:31Speaker 04

  On Saturday for $31 million. He told me it was okay to say that, so don't come after me.

• 55:39Speaker 04

  But there's some incredible deals happening in the city. You know, there's, like I said, if you're, if you're buying with wealth, it's actually tougher right now to be a client than it is if you're buying with income.

• 55:48Speaker 00

  Yeah. Wait, wait, wait. Why is that?

• 55:51Speaker 04

  Because of limited.

• 55:52Speaker 00

  Oh, you just mean that, in that bracket.

• 55:55Speaker 04

  Limited inventory. Like if you have a buyer now, there's another article and we were talking, you know, in Miami. Like we say, okay, I have a budget, $30 to $50 million. You're incredibly wealthy. You've made it in all of life. A comet could hit the earth right now. The same way it wiped out the dinosaurs and could wipe out your whole world. You've made it. Everything's going to be okay. And where are you going to go? Where are you going to go? I sold a penthouse of a condo in Surfside in Miami not long ago for $33 million. Someone just offered us $85. Seller said, no. Said, what am I supposed, where am I supposed to, where am I supposed to go?

• 56:30Speaker 00

  Well, yeah, the crazy thing for me is realizing, I, having spent basically my whole life in California. Everyone being like, oh, cost of living is so expensive in California, but then anywhere else that you look that you'd want to live around the country. Like in the right neighborhoods, like when you look like as an adult realizing that like looking on Zillow, you're like, oh, this place looks like pretty reasonable. And then you actually understand the market at all. And you're like, well, here's why that house is like, looks like a great price.

• 56:56Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 56:57Speaker 00

  It's because it's not in a place that you want to live.

• 56:59Speaker 01

  Is the correct answer not that the boomer with the 8,000 square foot family home should be moving to a condo once they're an empty nester?

• 57:06Speaker 04

  It is.

• 57:07Speaker 01

  But.

• 57:07Speaker 04

  Partly.

• 57:08Speaker 01

  It's just not aesthetically the choice or?

• 57:10Speaker 04

  No, they just, they can't afford to move.

• 57:12Speaker 01

  Okay, okay. Because of taxes and mortgage rates flocking?

• 57:14Speaker 04

  If they own in cash or if they refinanced during COVID.

• 57:18Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 57:19Speaker 04

  Because there was a mass refinance movement.

• 57:22Speaker 01

  At 3%.

• 57:22Speaker 04

  Yeah, yep. You know, 80% of anyone who has a loan is under 4%. So where are you going to go? And you're going to move in with your kids so that you could free, to do what?

• 57:31Speaker 01

  Do what, yeah.

• 57:32Speaker 04

  To do what?

• 57:32Speaker 01

  To just stay.

• 57:33Speaker 04

  And the capital gains tax exclusion has not been updated since the 90s. And so married and filing jointly, you can write off $500,000 of gain, used to mean a lot. You know, when the average home sale was $269,000.

• 57:48Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 57:49Speaker 04

  Today it's almost, almost like we're going to see the median home price in the United States hit $500,000 very soon. And that is not in pace with wage growth.

• 57:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 57:59Speaker 04

  So something eventually has to, has to, has to give.

• 58:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 58:04Speaker 04

  Rates will just have to come in.

• 58:05Speaker 00

  What are your predictions for how AI money is going to flow? We had the SpaceX IPO. We have an Anthropic IPO coming up. There's more in the future. We know how VCs will spend their money, right? You know, the Aspen or Montana, the Jet.

• 58:22Speaker 04

  Yeah, there's markets.

• 58:22Speaker 00

  A lot of people generating a meaningful amount of wealth that don't seem to spend the way that other, like Wall Street. They're willing to pay like three times over for a house in San Francisco. But like where else is that going to flow outside of like just the stock market?

• 58:39Speaker 04

  Wyoming, Nevada, Arizona. Our market in Arizona, we operate throughout Phoenix. Scottsdale is the strongest I've ever, ever, ever seen it. The mountains of North Carolina and South Carolina are incredibly strong. Obviously a significant amount of Florida. But it's wild. Like we're, we're working with people who are under the age of 35. Who have a one-bedroom rental that they've been in for a long, long, long time. And their budget for their first time home purchase is somewhere between 30 and 40 million dollars. And you're having, you're having life conversations with these clients more than you're having purchase conversations. It used to be when I had somebody like that, I'm dealing with a king or queen of the universe.

• 59:22Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 59:22Speaker 04

  And this is their 17th purchase. But now we're having conversations about what it means to be a first time home buyer. Your budget's $35 million. You still have to pay utilities. You're still going to have to get your internet. You know, we're going to figure things out as we go. And a lot of people are, they're just, they're scared. They're waiting. The sellers, on the other hand. Anthropic took 330 Hudson over here as their New York space. OpenAI is in market for even more space right now. Every other company. So every seller is saying, let's wait. Let's just wait. I'm not reducing my price.

• 59:52Speaker 01

  I want the IPO.

• 59:53Speaker 04

  I'm going to hold out because that money is coming right to my apartment. Like, are you sure?

• 59:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 59:56Speaker 04

  Have you talked to anybody there? I was, I was here when Uber went public years and years and years ago and everyone was waiting on those initial, you know.

• 1:00:04Speaker 00

  Oh, that's in, that's in the New York market specifically.

• 1:00:07Speaker 04

  That was everywhere. That was everywhere.

• 1:00:08Speaker 00

  Some of the places you listed, I'm so, I'm so surprised. So you said Nevada, Arizona, the Carolinas, Wyoming.

• 1:00:16Speaker 04

  What they're going to do is they're going to buy.

• 1:00:18Speaker 00

  I don't know anyone in San Francisco that's like, the second I get this liquidity, I'm going to Arizona. But, but, but.

• 1:00:25Speaker 04

  But they're also buying their parents' homes, buying their mortgage down. And so you're going to see a lot of prepayments.

• 1:00:31Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:00:31Speaker 04

  So you see a lot of that. You see a lot of student debt being paid down. You see a lot of investment.

• 1:00:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:37Speaker 04

  You know, they have their house. What are they going to do with 100,000 square foot palace?

• 1:00:41Speaker 01

  We go back to Uber really quickly. Like what was the expectation? What, how did it actually plan?

• 1:00:46Speaker 04

  Expectation was that a significant amount of the liquidity after the lockup period was ended, was going to move, not even just into New York, but between the Bay area and here, right into property. But a lot of those people were buying on loans based on RSUs anyway.

• 1:00:59Speaker 01

  Oh, so they're already in market?

• 1:01:00Speaker 04

  Yeah. Uber pre-IPO had a, had a stock buyback program for their employees for like two years. You know, they were paying them hundreds of thousands of dollars a month just to buy back the stock.

• 1:01:10Speaker 01

  Banks are happy to, like, write a mortgage against RSUs.

• 1:01:13Speaker 04

  Silicon Valley Bank, you know, old school. Old school banks were saying, hey, we'll lend, we'll give you 50% you know, loan to value against your RSUs as long as you can get sign off.

• 1:01:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. And a lot of companies are happy with that because like it's no cash cost to them, but their employees are happier and have bigger houses.

• 1:01:31Speaker 04

  It's not going to be a trickle down though. It's going to be a mass influx into the luxury marketplace. And we've seen it happen.

• 1:01:36Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:01:37Speaker 04

  In all, every penthouse, every major townhouse, a lot of these exits between New York, especially Florida and up and down the coast in California.

• 1:01:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:45Speaker 04

  And then some international money too. We've been doing more referral deals to Paris, to Portugal. We've, we've done, I've done more ranch land grabs across the West, Montana, Wyoming, Utah. It's been big, big markets. Crazy. Learning so much.

• 1:02:03Speaker 00

  I'm assuming you don't spend too much time thinking about this because you have a lot of stuff to do in the present. But how much do you speculate or think about long-term impact of self-driving?

• 1:02:16Speaker 04

  Oh, I think about it a lot.

• 1:02:17Speaker 00

  VTOL, like I, I think about all these areas where, and then, and then also like technology impact on just like the building process. Like I was talking to a city council candidate last week and he was like, one of his big things is like, you should be able to submit your plans to the city's website. And instantly understand if you're, if you're violating codes or not.

• 1:02:34Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:02:35Speaker 00

  So they're, to, to speed up. And I thought that was cool that he at least like believes that there's.

• 1:02:40Speaker 04

  You'll have it.

• 1:02:41Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:02:41Speaker 04

  There is, there is no a balance, like.

• 1:02:45Speaker 04

  The process of submitting permits and plans to build in most American cities is incredibly painful and is built on systems that were created somewhere between 30 and 40 years ago, for the most part. That said, you also have to think about quality of life. So if you do really speed up permitting, you do really, really speed up construction, and you do let everyone build who wants to build, do you know what it would be like to live in most of these cities? And then what is the inventory going to look like if everyone hits market? What's interesting about a market like Canada, you go to Toronto-

• 1:03:17Speaker 00

  I had this moment, like a neighbor like-

• 1:03:21Speaker 04

  If everyone's under construction, you're like, I don't know, slow down permitting.

• 1:03:25Speaker 00

  I had a neighbor acres over doing like landscaping on Halloween. And it was like, had a tractor going around. I'm like, I'm like, uh-

• 1:03:37Speaker 04

  I think about Waymo and self-driving and cybercabs a lot. From the first time I went to- It was a couple of years ago, I was at a meeting in San Francisco, and I saw one of those dystopian parking lots of all the Waymo cars talking to each other, moving around. It's like, what happens to real estate when the commute is no longer? If the commute, kind of like it is today with Tesla and self-driving, if a commute is just a Zoom meeting, and if you can match it with good education, because education will be an issue, you know, you can go and buy an amazing house, three hours outside New York City, elsewhere, but if there's no restaurants, if there's no schools, if there's nothing to do there, you pay the premium to be in a better location.

• 1:04:21Speaker 00

  I commute pretty far. I've done it with a driver for most of last year. I have now Tesla self-driving. A commute is still a commute. It is still like-

• 1:04:31Speaker 04

  You're not working out.

• 1:04:31Speaker 00

  It's still like 10 hours a week that I'm not doing like-

• 1:04:34Speaker 04

  And you're unproductive, for sure.

• 1:04:36Speaker 00

  I can do email, whatever. It's still not great. Last question, I know you have to jump.

• 1:04:43Speaker 00

  Can you make a bull case for LA, the LA real estate market?

• 1:04:46Speaker 04

  I think there is only one Hollywood. There is only one LA, and it is a great center of, I would say, creative wealth with the absolute best weather on the planet. There are no bugs, and you can have indoor/outdoor living in a way you can't have in New York, can't have in Florida. You know how many people we moved to Florida during COVID, or like, this is the greatest thing ever, because COVID hit in the winter?

• 1:05:09Speaker 00

  Yeah, I can make all that, but like, where is the creative wealth generation really happening? In the next generation, who wants to be surrounded by community? Where else are they going?

• 1:05:19Speaker 01

  And social media. It might not be traditional Hollywood studios.

• 1:05:21Speaker 04

  So look at Darman, for example, and look at Matt Kalish. So Matt Kalish from DraftKings and Darman, both of them now investing in and building creator studios. So it's the repurpose of big box retail years and years ago, what you've seen throughout major markets. In California, you're going to see the same thing. It's going to be the repurpose of big box studio space that are going to be transformed and moved not just to one studio that owns 19 lots, but to 7,000 creators who are doing brand deals with the studio lot owner and taking fee exchange instead of hourly day rates. So you're just going to see an exchange for it.

• 1:06:03Speaker 00

  Yeah, I had an interesting moment Friday. I overheard someone saying, I don't even want to go to this. I just want to get a picture, walking up to this like, party that I was leaving. And I was realizing like, the Hollywood is still very alive and well, like, the show goes on. It just is now, instead of like, you know, a thousand cameras that matter, there's like a million cameras that matter in everyone's pockets.

• 1:06:24Speaker 04

  Everyone's Hollywood now. Everyone's Hollywood. Anyone can create a show.

• 1:06:28Speaker 01

  Thank you so much.

• 1:06:29Speaker 00

  Thank you for coming on. Great to meet you. I'm really inspired by your business.

• 1:06:32Speaker 01

  And congratulations on the new market openings.

• 1:06:34Speaker 04

  Thank you, thank you.

• 1:06:34Speaker 01

  Hope to talk to you soon.

• 1:06:35Speaker 04

  Enjoy.

• 1:06:35Speaker 01

  Have a good one.

• 1:06:36Speaker 00

  Good stuff.

• 1:06:37Speaker 01

  We have one last guest joining in just a minute, from the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world, raise capital here at the New York Stock Exchange. Also, fridges across the world are getting hacked. No better time to tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. And last before our next guest is Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. The other big news, I mean,

• 1:07:20Speaker 01

  there's a few big news stories coming across the timeline today. Anthropic's Q3 numbers are out officially. These have been rumored or leaked from the Investor Day. It didn't seem like a huge surprise, but Q3 revenue came in at $17 billion. I think that's a $69 billion, $68 billion run rate, but based on that quarter. It's 1127% year-over-year growth, 47% quarter-on-quarter growth. That's a deceleration from Q2, which has people a little nervous, but overall, some are, this is, there's already a balancing act going

• 1:08:03Speaker 01

  on with some, like, leaked, rumored, vague posting around Fable 5.5, generating videos from scratch and doing a bunch of cool stuff. So again, the big question is, yeah, what is the next leg up? What is the next application of the models? If they get better, if the straight line on the log graph continues, what is the unlock? What is the next thing that everyone can't get enough of? The other news, fridges are getting hacked. Hackers are remotely, remotely taking control of supermarket refrigerators and freezers across Europe, turning up their temperatures and forcing stores to throw away thousands of dollars' worth of food. We talked about this in the context of a military base that saw

• 1:08:45Speaker 01

  this hack happen with the fridges. And I wonder how deliberate this is? Is this just a script that goes out and tries to just wreak havoc? Is there any targeting to it?

• 1:08:57Speaker 00

  Yeah, it doesn't feel like, it feels like they just come in, ruin all the food, and then what is the next ask? Like, hey-

• 1:09:04Speaker 01

  We'll stop ruining your food if you pay a bounty?

• 1:09:06Speaker 00

  But it feels like you would be able to-

• 1:09:07Speaker 01

  We haven't heard about those ransoms.

• 1:09:09Speaker 00

  At that point, all the food is ruined, so you could just try to-

• 1:09:12Speaker 01

  Do it again? I don't know. Yeah, it is odd. And the countries, it doesn't tie together. I mean, it's just Western countries right now, Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia, Ireland, Netherlands, Finland, IKEA is affected, a bunch of other stores. And so, one ICA supermarket in Sweden reported that its freezers reached 122 degrees Fahrenheit. That's really, really hot.

• 1:09:37Speaker 00

  How do they go that hot?

• 1:09:39Speaker 01

  If you're designing a freezer, it shouldn't be able to pump up the heat that much, but I guess if you reverse it or something, reverse the fan.

• 1:09:46Speaker 00

  Dude, people are going to realize that old supermarkets can be turned into saunas.

• 1:09:51Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:09:52Speaker 00

  And start the conversion process.

• 1:09:55Speaker 01

  Potentially, potentially. I think it's time to get an icebox, get the, get the Iceman coming and delivering with the big tongs. Time for that. In Ireland, 13 super value stores were affected. In Belgium, a butcher reported that hackers raised his refrigerators to 64 degrees. Again, very odd that the, the goal seems to be just to cause damage. Katrien Eggers, spokesperson for Belgium's Center for Cybersecurity, says, no one knows who is behind these attacks, and that we may never know, since no one has demanded a ransom, there's growing suspicion that the goal is simply to cause damage rather than make money. Strategy Risks Melissa Chen thinks the rise of these kinds of attacks is good reason to hold on to older appliances that aren't connected to the internet. Interesting.

• 1:10:41Speaker 00

  In other news, Apple and Palantir reporting earnings today. We really want Apple to,

• 1:10:52Speaker 00

  really want Apple to crush, otherwise, I think it's, we're going to be seeing a lot of red out here after that. Yeah, and Palantir will be an interesting signal as well, just from a diffusion standpoint. More news, Mark Walter is exploring selling Cadillac F1 at a $3 billion valuation.

• 1:11:12Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 1:11:13Speaker 00

  Less than two months ago, TWG said it was not considering exiting its stake in the team. This is from Sportico.

• 1:11:22Speaker 01

  I wonder how the business is doing. We heard Toto Wolff on Cheeky Pint, talking to John Collison about the economics of the Mercedes F1 team.

• 1:11:30Speaker 00

  Yeah, it seems like he just has like an amazing business.

• 1:11:33Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:11:33Speaker 00

  But he was like very realistic about like, he was basically saying like, I'm being valued on my cash flows more than hype.

• 1:11:40Speaker 01

  Yes, it's not a trophy asset like an NBA team, like an NFL team, like some of the other teams that trade where they're not really generating a lot of cash flow.

• 1:11:48Speaker 00

  Yeah, it's interesting because with a team, there's so much, there's so much demand from somebody who's like, I live in LA and I want to own the Lakers, right? Or like, I live in New York and I want to own XYZ team. With F1, it's like your team is just going all over the world all the time. And so you really have to, one, want to go to a lot of races.

• 1:12:09Speaker 01

  Or have business all over the world, potentially, and be more, more global. Yeah, it almost feels like if you want to go really big into F1, like, you know, partnering with Las Vegas in some way, or Miami, and if you're a Miami, you know, business person, you would just want to make sure that you're, you want to buy the Heat, and then also participate when F1 comes to town.

• 1:12:33Speaker 00

  Or just do, do what George Kurtz did, which is, you know, become a big, become a big part of AMG, and, and then, you know, deliver the world's youngest world champion.

• 1:12:45Speaker 01

  Yes, incredible.

• 1:12:47Speaker 00

  Yesterday, really, really amazing.

• 1:12:48Speaker 01

  So good. And early, too. It was still early in the season, so great to see. Northwood, Northwood is on an absolute tear. Northwood Space, we've had Bridget on the show multiple times at this point. She's back, raising $375 million to a $2 billion valuation, co-led by A16Z and DFJ Growth. Just less than, less than nine months after Series B, Northwood says this round of funding will be used for accelerating delivery on existing contracts, talent acquisitions, and the build-out of Northwood's ground, global ground network for commercial US government allied space missions. And we've seen, just, yeah, just incredible. It was a very contrarian move. It's not exactly

• 1:13:31Speaker 01

  like a bet against Elon, but it's, it's, it's standing, it's expecting that the other players will be taken seriously, that there will be, you know, a way to either work with SpaceX ultimately, or work with all the other partners who want to have a separate backbone. So it was just like the right idea at the right time, great execution. And, yeah, what, what an absolute run. What else is in the timeline?

• 1:13:57Speaker 00

  Really sad news. The Texas family that was on the plane crash yesterday was a 44-year-old tech entrepreneur named Adam Robinson, who had a company called Retention.com. I never knew Adam, but I know that a lot of people in e-comm were, were customers. And, yeah, just a really tragic event all around. And a rough year for the Austin tech community.

• 1:14:28Speaker 01

  For sure. Yeah, there was another plane crash.

• 1:14:30Speaker 00

  But prayers with their family.

• 1:14:31Speaker 01

  Yes, yes. In, it is a palate cleanser. I mean, let's go over to Andre Karpathy, because he hacked together HackerTube, which is, he built his own YouTube. You saw this with the content recommendations? So he has, he has all the different comments and hacker news submissions. He filters those through Claude, and then creates a new YouTube, fully vibe-coded, just clone of YouTube, so he can just watch exactly the videos that he wants recommended by real programmers. Sort of an interesting moment of, of, you know, these like instantiating like custom software. It's like, it's like a luxury.

• 1:15:14Speaker 00

  And I like, I like how people were like, what's your prompts? And it was just like the most simple that he shared. And it was like, it was like two sentences.

• 1:15:21Speaker 01

  It was like, here's the idea, make it. Yeah.

• 1:15:23Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:15:24Speaker 01

  Incredible.

• 1:15:25Speaker 00

  I want, I want, I want this, I basically want my YouTube, my exact YouTube algorithm, no AI voice. I don't want any, I don't want any videos where the creator isn't talking through it themselves. That's a good start. And then I think secondary is like detecting like pure AI scripts.

• 1:15:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, also, you can easily go through the channel and go backwards to see when the channel was created. And that helps to know, is it some new?

• 1:15:49Speaker 00

  Channels older than, than four years old.

• 1:15:52Speaker 01

  Basically. And this is interesting. The, the trick is, I don't watch a lot of YouTube on desktop. I need an iPhone app, Andre, so let's get it in the app store.

• 1:16:03Speaker 00

  You need a TV app?

• 1:16:04Speaker 01

  Uh, I don't watch YouTube on TV.

• 1:16:06Speaker 00

  Really?

• 1:16:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, usually background audio on my phone for most of these things. Like, anything here, I would either be watching on my phone. Although, of course, you could do it on the, in Safari, but I like, I like an app. I like an iPhone app. Anyway, the other, the other big news, we're going to talk to the semi-analysis folks tomorrow or the next day, but they have a big benchmark out, GDPRX. They're getting in the benchmark game. And really, really interesting to see Dylan Patel issuing an official apology to Google. He says they cooked with carbon. It's spikier in terms of domains and capabilities, but it's really good in a few key areas. And so GDPRX is

• 1:16:47Speaker 01

  a benchmark for measuring agentic capabilities across the most valuable domains. And they, they, they, they highlight the fact that the best model scores just 12%. It's neck and neck between a lot of the frontier labs, and of course, takes into account the, you know, semi-analysis is a lot about ROI and the actual value of these tasks. So it'll be very interesting to see the labs hill-climb all of this. And maybe this is the answer to your question about the next leg up. Because these are very practical things, like so many, so many jobs, so much work doesn't look like a, you know, like a math eval on the day-to-day. But a lot of these GDPRX benchmarks

• 1:17:29Speaker 01

  are specific tasks around things that businesses would like to do more of, like go and patch bugs, go and, you know, fix things in the, in the, in the actual business. So, congrats to the semi-analysis team on the launch. Natasha Mascheranos asked an important question. We got to get to it. Jordy, did you see this? She was a big fan of our, she was a big fan of our Elf on the Shelf interview. But Natasha asks, on November 1st, 2026, is it too early to put my Christmas tree up? What do you think, Jordy?

• 1:18:03Speaker 00

  Absolutely not.

• 1:18:05Speaker 01

  Absolutely not. In fact, I think you're a little bit late.

• 1:18:07Speaker 00

  As long as you have a backup tree.

• 1:18:09Speaker 01

  A backup tree.

• 1:18:10Speaker 00

  As long as you basically slate a delivery of a second tree.

• 1:18:13Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:18:14Speaker 00

  Probably like December 1st.

• 1:18:16Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, you're a fan of the Christmas tree subscription that starts in late July, and then you're getting a monthly tree leading up. And they just get progressively bigger and bigger in your house. So you can only, you really only need the tree to last a month, swap it out till the final tree arrives.

• 1:18:31Speaker 00

  What's the right number of trees?

• 1:18:33Speaker 01

  In, in one house?

• 1:18:35Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:18:35Speaker 01

  One per room would be the baseline. But then, also, you can see outside.

• 1:18:39Speaker 00

  But I'm talking about like bathrooms.

• 1:18:40Speaker 01

  Oh, bathroom.

• 1:18:41Speaker 00

  Like, do you want a smaller tree in there?

• 1:18:44Speaker 01

  It is technically a room, a bathroom. I think you got to put a small tree in there.

• 1:18:47Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah. So if somebody's saying like, you know, five bed, five bath, it's like 10 trees.

• 1:18:52Speaker 01

  10 trees. But, I mean, what, there is a little bit of like an exchange rate, because one snowman goes pretty far. You know, you can get a snowman going. And I believe we have our next guest joining in just a minute. What else is going on in this, in the timeline? We will bring in Lynn. Where'd you go? Welcome to the show.

• 1:19:09Speaker 00

  There she is.

• 1:19:10Speaker 01

  We have Lynn from the New York Stock Exchange.

• 1:19:12Lynn Martin?

  Welcome to the scene, guys.

• 1:19:14Speaker 01

  Merry Christmas. We're only 52 days away.

• 1:19:18Speaker 00

  Merry Christmasy theme today. We got some reds and some greens.

• 1:19:21Speaker 01

  Some reds, some green on the charts.

• 1:19:23Lynn Martin?

  You know, it was all green this morning. And then, you know, that's what happens, I guess.

• 1:19:29Speaker 01

  How has it been over the last month? It's been kind of chaotic for us in the AI world and tech and business, your world?

• 1:19:35Lynn Martin?

  It's been a little chaotic. The market feels a bit nervous. And I think you see that, right?

• 1:19:41Speaker 01

  Of course.

• 1:19:42Lynn Martin?

  Just a little bit.

• 1:19:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, but there's other stuff that you can do on the infrastructure side. There's other work that you can do to advance the mission of the New York Stock Exchange, even in terms of, tell me more about some of the latest announcements, some of the tokenization efforts, and the other stuff that's going on at the New York Stock Exchange.

• 1:19:57Lynn Martin?

  Yeah, the nice thing about this is the world doesn't stop moving. And the technology doesn't stop moving. And there's a tremendous amount for, of opportunity for the technology. So we've been really advancing the ball on the digital infrastructure of the future. That's probably the right way to phrase it, because.

• 1:20:17Speaker 01

  Is, yeah, is that a customer poll? People are coming to you, asking you to implement these? Is this, you know, the customer doesn't know what they want. They would ask for a faster horse, and you know that this is the right technology to implement. What, what direction does it flow?

• 1:20:30Lynn Martin?

  So I've had the opportunity now for the last four years to see all of the inefficiencies that exist in this market. So despite the fact that the US capital markets are the envy of the world, the most efficient from a market perspective, and that we continue to make advancements to improve liquidity, improve transparency, there are different parts of this value chain that could definitely use some modernization. And you think about the settlement window right now for equities, it's still T plus one. You think about the process associated with a annual general meeting and

• 1:21:10Lynn Martin?

  getting votes and approvals. That's what we announced today. Like, the blockchain technology could really free up a lot of these clocks in the system. So that's what we're excited to advance. And we've been spending a lot of time with folks in DC, the SEC, and others, around how do we do this responsibly to bring about all of the efficiencies that this amazing technology has, with none of the scary stuff, and protecting market integrity while you bring efficiency to the market?

• 1:21:46Speaker 01

  How have you been grappling with all the cybersecurity jitters? There's the Black October sort of extending with the fridge store today?

• 1:21:55Speaker 00

  Well, yeah, and even, even, you know, I think people, at least personally, over the last week, I felt.

• 1:22:03Speaker 00

  Okay with needing to get on the phone when I need to send a wire.

• 1:22:07Lynn Martin?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:07Speaker 00

  Or at times you need to go into a branch, right? And realizing like, okay, like, maybe this wasn't always necessary like five years ago, but now it feels like a relief in some way. And so it's like figuring out what what of the old friction should be brought into the new world.

• 1:22:24Lynn Martin?

  Well, if you think about things like the price bands that happen in equities every day. Some people will say, why do you need price bands? Well, you need those moments if the stock is moving too much in one direction to take a pause.

• 1:22:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:40Lynn Martin?

  Maybe there needs to be.

• 1:22:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:42Lynn Martin?

  A speed bump.

• 1:22:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:43Lynn Martin?

  In the day. And that's really all it is, is a speed bump. And we've been very focused on how do we leverage the human with the cutting edge technology and marry the two together. This is why I don't think AI is going to destroy humanity. Because having the best of humanity with the best of technology is going to enable the human to do a heck of a lot more in the future.

• 1:23:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, I completely agree. The human, very important in the process. Take us actually through the the road to Christmas. What is on the calendar for the New York Stock Exchange between now and Christmas? Tree lighting happening this year? What else is happening?

• 1:23:26Lynn Martin?

  I mean, some IPOs, God willing. I mean, there is a jittery market at the moment. So God willing, there'll be some more IPOs.

• 1:23:32Speaker 00

  What are what are points throughout history where there were major market jitters and fear and companies just decided to roll the dice and say, we want to get out?

• 1:23:44Lynn Martin?

  Um, I mean, look at 2020 as the most recent one, right? Remember, we did have start to have the banner years of IPOs in 2020 and 2021. And we had a pandemic.

• 1:23:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, people were nervous.

• 1:23:56Speaker 00

  You had effectively 0% interest rates, which would have played a factor in driving demand, right?

• 1:24:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. We also had circuit breakers back to back to back.

• 1:24:07Lynn Martin?

  Yeah, we had market.

• 1:24:09Speaker 01

  Went down like 30% in a month. I don't know, it was a crazy time.

• 1:24:13Lynn Martin?

  And there was uncertainty about would the world ever go back to.

• 1:24:16Speaker 00

  But now it's particularly interesting because there's like skepticism about the AI trade broadly, plus midterms, all happening at the same time.

• 1:24:25Lynn Martin?

  All happening in the same week.

• 1:24:27Speaker 00

  Plus cyber, plus, you know, rumors of, you know, uptick in conflicts, you know, globally, like, it just feels like so many different factors that that make an AI, a pure play AI IPO, challenged right now.

• 1:24:45Lynn Martin?

  It feels like the market is very cautious and it's going to be a little bit on edge for the next couple of weeks. I think tomorrow you'll have a bit more information and as the week progresses, you'll have a lot more information.

• 1:25:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

• 1:25:03Lynn Martin?

  So it's not all happening on the same day, fortunately.

• 1:25:07Speaker 01

  Yeah. What has what is the relationship been with prediction markets been like over the last year? Are those useful tools to understand where the midterms might go? Is obviously the relationship is a little bit deeper, but get us up to speed on the house thesis on prediction markets.

• 1:25:23Lynn Martin?

  I mean, the data is really why we did the investment initially with with Polly in particular, because we saw the data really moving the traditional markets, the data that was in the prediction market. And it was really that election night of 2024, two years ago.

• 1:25:42Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:25:42Lynn Martin?

  That was more the aha moment that wow.

• 1:25:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:25:45Lynn Martin?

  They call the winner of the presidential election and you saw the S and P futures immediately move.

• 1:25:50Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:25:52Lynn Martin?

  The data that's on the markets is or that is on the prediction markets is still incredibly useful, particularly when you think about the various conflicts that have arisen, straight of Hormuz, those types of things. Interest rates, those have been interesting predictors as you see people start to position their rates portfolio.

• 1:26:13Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:26:13Lynn Martin?

  Around what the prediction markets are saying, Fed increase, Fed decrease.

• 1:26:18Speaker 01

  What is the mood like among European companies right now in terms of coming to you, coming to the New York Stock Exchange? I mean, we're here for the Klarna IPO. That was a really interesting decision. And it seems like the jitters might be global, they might be market wide, but America is still the destination for capital formation.

• 1:26:39Lynn Martin?

  We absolutely, you know, we've got a robust pipeline of European, London based, as well as as other parts of the continent in particular, that are looking to tap the US capital markets. We actually were able to transfer AstraZeneca earlier this year and they saw their valuation appreciate, I think about 30% when they announced the conversion of their ADRs to ordinary shares.

• 1:27:08Speaker 00

  The Nicie effect.

• 1:27:09Lynn Martin?

  There you go. I think that just speaks, though, to the appreciation associated with companies that are listed in the US. So the US remains a very, very interesting destination for people to raise capital.

• 1:27:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:27:27Speaker 00

  How do you think about planning for 27?

• 1:27:30Lynn Martin?

  Hmm, that's a good.

• 1:27:32Speaker 00

  Feels like an impossible task. I was talking, I was talking to someone on on Friday night who's like undoubtedly one of the greatest sort of like live venture capitalists. And we were just, I was joking and I was like, I really wish somebody knew what was going to happen, like specifically with like specifically, you know, restricted to tech and AI. I was telling him like, you know, he was like, I definitely don't know. And I was like, if if if somebody knew, we we would certainly know them. And so that gives me confidence that no one knows.

• 1:28:04Lynn Martin?

  Well, I mean, think about how we started the year. Did anyone have on the bingo card that there would be one, maybe two interest rate hikes?

• 1:28:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, no.

• 1:28:13Lynn Martin?

  This year, we were all talking about the opposite cuts happening this year. I think the one thing you can predict for 2027 is that there's going to be additional efficiency, either with the deployment of the technology or things like tokenization, which is going to pull out some of the inefficiencies, particularly with governance and voting rights and all of the things that are in the system. But there's going to be uncertainty. So you've just got to remain nimble more so than ever.

• 1:28:46Speaker 00

  I'll ride with that. I'm going to also predict uncertainty.

• 1:28:50Speaker 01

  Predict the always predictable.

• 1:28:52Speaker 00

  Always predict.

• 1:28:53Lynn Martin?

  Exactly. Predict the unpredictable.

• 1:28:56Speaker 00

  And the and the and the long march of technology.

• 1:28:59Speaker 01

  Yes, yeah, that's true.

• 1:29:00Lynn Martin?

  Absolutely, particularly as markets go even more global. I mean, we're about to go 23 hours a day, five days a week, starting in December. So that's going to, again, further cement the US as the global destination for companies around the world.

• 1:29:17Speaker 01

  How has the organization changed in to gear up for that? Is that purely technology? Are you distributing the workforce around the globe to meet those needs?

• 1:29:27Lynn Martin?

  Yeah, our technology has been ready for probably a year and a half, to be honest. We filed our initial ruleset two years ago, so we've been ready for quite some time. We've added people in more time zone friendly locations to monitor the markets, the operations, the systems.

• 1:29:48Speaker 01

  This is what all the hedge funds do anyway. They have someone trading like the Asian hours or whatever. So you're just meeting them where they are.

• 1:29:54Lynn Martin?

  Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

• 1:29:56Speaker 01

  Well, congratulations.

• 1:29:57Lynn Martin?

  Thank you. It's great seeing you guys.

• 1:29:59Speaker 00

  Want to close out the show with us?

• 1:30:00Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:30:01Lynn Martin?

  Sure.

• 1:30:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts, sign up for our newsletter, tbpn.com, and we will see you tomorrow at 11:00 AM Pacific.

• 1:30:08Speaker 00

  Cheers, guys. Thanks for having us, Lynn. We'll see you tomorrow.

• 1:30:11Speaker 01

  There we go. Thanks so much.