The World Has Changed, But THIS Is Still the Best Way to Invest in Real Estate

Real estate investing in 2025 has huge, underrated potential to make you wealthy—but hardly anyone is talking about it. As tariffs, mortgage rates, and stock market volatility take over the news cycle, average Americans are turning away from time-tested investments like real estate and worrying about unstable markets instead. This could be a huge mistake because, as I’m about to show you, the ability to get rich with real estate has not disappeared—if anything, the opportunity has grown. For months, I’ve been talking about how we’re entering the “upside” era of real estate investing—a time when patient, prudent investors can make a killing by pinpointing often-overlooked opportunities. Today, I’m sharing the exact “upsides” to look for in 2025 and how I’m buying real estate deals RIGHT NOW that will make me wealthier in the not-so-far future. Even better? I’m proving how real estate BEATS your other investments—especially during turbulent times. Stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, and even private businesses can’t hold a candle to real estate. Now is the time to get in, and if you don’t, you can be sure other investors will pick up what you missed, building their financial freedom where you could have built yours! In This Episode We Cover: The “upside” era explained and seven different ways to build wealth through real estate NOW Real estate vs. stocks vs. cryptocurrency vs. businesses: which reigns supreme? How to achieve financial freedom in just a decade if you start investing NOW Real “upside” deal examples Dave is doing now to build wealth in today’s market Huge economic tailwinds real estate has over the next few years (if not much longer) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Ask Your Question on the BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets YouTube Apply to Be a BiggerPockets Real Estate Guest Get Early Bird Tickets to BPCon2025 ($100 Off!) Baselane: Automate your real estate finances with banking and AI-powered bookkeeping. Claim your $100 bonus Find YOUR Perfect Investing Strategy with Dave’s Book, “Start with Strategy” Sign Up for the BiggerPockets Real Estate Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area The One True “Inflation-Proof” Investment (EVEN with Tariffs) Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1109 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Dave Meyer?

  The world has changed over the last couple of weeks, but the best way to invest in real estate hasn't. If you can't keep up with the economic news right now, you are absolutely not alone. Tariffs are on, now they're off. Stock market is down, now it's back up. It's been a complete whirlwind out there, but my real estate investing is staying almost exactly the same. And today I'll share my updated and adapted upside era investment strategy for uncertain times.

• 0:33Dave Meyer?

  What's up, everyone? I'm Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets, and I've been buying rental properties for 15 years, and I've written two books on how to invest. And back in January, I released my personal theory on the best way to invest your money right now. It's called The Upside Era, and it's based on my analysis of all the economic data that powers the real estate market, and it draws on my experience from my own investing career. But so much has changed in the three months since the upside era began. The entire US economy might be reshaping around us. So today, it's time for a refresh. Call it the upside era of real estate version 1.1.

• 1:16Dave Meyer?

  In this podcast, I'll explain the unique advantages of real estate investing during the upside era, why real estate is the single best way to achieve financial freedom, and the key investing principles to follow if you want to build life-changing wealth. I'm going to include some learnings from a very volatile first quarter 2025, and I'll show you some real-world examples of investment deals that are aligned with this strategy and that most people could find right now. This right here, it is the path to taking your financial future into your own hands. Let's get into it. So this idea of the upside era came about through the recognition that real estate investing has changed. And if you've been in this industry for a couple of years now, you probably recognize this, right?

• 2:01Dave Meyer?

  This year and the last two or three years look pretty different than the times during the pandemic or the five to 10 years preceding that. And maybe this is even the most important thing to remember about the upside era, that even though investing conditions have changed, it's okay. There are still absolutely undoubtedly ways to build financial freedom and to succeed as a real estate investor, even in today's day and age. To me, real estate still offers a very clear path to financial independence, really to anyone who's willing to learn and who is willing to adapt to the new circumstances that we're going to be talking about today. All you need to do is find the upside.

• 2:45Dave Meyer?

  And that's really what we're going to be talking about today is even though investing conditions have changed, there's still huge potential in real estate. All you need to do is be able to find the deals that have that worthwhile, very meaningful upside and pursue those. Let's talk for a minute now about this new era of real estate investing. This is going to be like a little bit of a history lesson, but I think it's really important because it will help you understand why, even though things have changed, there is still great opportunity in real estate. The thing that we all need to recognize is the previous period, which I define as 2013 to 2022. This period of time, I call the Goldilocks era because everything was just almost perfect, right?

• 3:28Dave Meyer?

  It was this magic mixing of conditions that made real estate not just profitable, it definitely was profitable, but the upsides and the benefits were just really obvious during that time. Just as some examples, we had first and foremost, abnormally high affordability in the housing market. After the crash in 2008, home prices went down, the most that they've ever gone down in US history, at least as far back as we have data. Home prices crashed 20%. That is absolutely huge. Meanwhile, in reaction to what was going on in the broader economy, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates. They started doing quantitative easing and this made mortgage rates extremely low during that time.

• 4:13Dave Meyer?

  So we had this sort of historic period where home prices were super low and mortgage rates were really low, which made it really easy to afford real estate. Even if you were just brand new to real estate, you could get into the market almost easier than any other time in American history. And actually, if you're watching this on YouTube right now, I'm putting up a chart right here that shows you just how true this is. This is a chart of home price affordability and I'll describe it for everyone listening on the podcast. But basically what it shows is that home price affordability, you know, it varies here and there over the last couple of decades. But there's really only one time where it's been as low as it was during this magical Goldilocks era, and that was back in the 1970s.

• 4:57Dave Meyer?

  So I think it's important for everyone to remember that this time during the 2010s where everyone was buying all this real estate, that was great while it lasted, but it is not normal. So just remember that things were way more affordable than they normally are during the Goldilocks era. So that was just one, that was a pretty big one, but that was just one of these near perfect investing conditions. The second thing that happened, which is still happening actually, is strong demographic tailwinds. Millennials started to age. They are now the biggest group, the biggest generation in the United States, and they are reaching their home buying age. And so that gave a really big tailwind, not just for home prices, but rent prices too, because there was a lot more people who needed apartments for rent.

• 5:42Dave Meyer?

  The third great investing condition was those rent prices. Rent grew above its long-term average for pretty much the entire Goldilocks era from 2013 to 2022. And the last perfect condition was that unfortunately during the Great Recession, a lot of builders went out of business. And so there was a lot less construction. And that's unfortunate for, you know, housing affordability long-term and it's created a lot of problems. But for people who owned real estate during the 2010s, that was actually a boon because there was less competition, there was less supply, and that drove up the prices of existing homes as well. So this is why I called it the Goldilocks era, right?

• 6:22Dave Meyer?

  All these macroeconomic demographic conditions combine to make real estate particularly amazing during this time. Now, fast forward to today in the upside era. What has actually changed? Of all those conditions that I just described that made real estate investing so great, how many of them have actually changed? When I think about them, I'm going to list out seven different conditions right now that I think are really important to the future of the housing market. Housing affordability, low interest rates, relatively low home prices, strong wage growth, demographic tailwinds, rent growth and supply constraints, right? Those were the things that helped contribute to the Goldilocks era.

• 7:05Dave Meyer?

  Of those, I think it's the first few that have actually changed, right? We no longer have super low interest rates and we don't have relatively low home prices. And this has shifted us from a market where affordability was unusually good, where almost everyone could afford it, to almost the opposite. We're now at a 40-year low for affordability and getting into the housing market is particularly difficult. And that is a real challenge. We're going to talk about it a little bit more later in this episode, but that is a real challenge. But the thing I'm trying to convey here is that is the main thing that has changed. Many of the other great investing conditions that existed during this Goldilocks era still exist today in the upside era.

• 7:49Dave Meyer?

  We still have strong wage growth as of this recording. We still have this demographic tailwind. We're still in the sort of the peak of millennial home buying and the front end of Gen Z is also a very big population. And so this is probably going to last for several more years at least. I also strongly believe that rent growth, even though it's been flat for two or three years, I think it's going to accelerate in the next couple of years. And supply constraints are actually only getting worse. And I think we might actually see a decline again in construction over the next couple of years. So when you look at the upside era, yes, affordability is difficult, but there are so many macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals

• 8:31Dave Meyer?

  that still make real estate investing incredibly exciting and have huge potential for profit. So that's my analysis of the different eras that we've been in recently. And now I want to turn our attention, our conversation here today about why real estate is still such a great asset class, even despite everything that is going on in the broader economy. We're going to do that right after this break. They say real estate investing is passive, but let's get real. Chasing rents, drowning in receipts, and getting buried in spreadsheets feels anything but passive. And if you're tired of losing valuable hours on financial busywork, I've found a solution that will transform your business. It's Baseline, a trusted BiggerPockets pro partner.

• 9:13Dave Meyer?

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• 9:52Dave Meyer?

  Do you ever notice how every passive investment somehow turns into a very active lifestyle? Active spreadsheets, active phone calls, active stress? Here's a better question. What if you could buy brand-new construction homes 10% below market value in the best markets across the country without making real estate your second job? That's exactly what Rent2Retirement does. They're a full-service, turnkey investment company handling everything for you. In some cases, investors get 50% to 75% of their down payment back at closing, plus interest rates as low as 3.75%. They've partnered with BiggerPockets for over a decade, helping thousands invest smarter. If you want to do the same, visit biggerpockets.com/retirement to learn more.

• 10:34Dave Meyer?

  Most investors only think about insurance when something goes wrong: a tenant injury, storm damage, loss of rent. Then suddenly, the cheapest policy doesn't feel like the best one anymore. That's why a lot of BiggerPockets investors Use steadily for landlord insurance designed specifically for rental properties. Whether you own one property or a growing portfolio, they make it simple to get covered properly. And BiggerPockets Pro members get an extra 5% off their landlord insurance premiums. Visit biggerpockets.com/landlordinsurance to get a quote today. I just booked a backpacking trip through Olympic National Park. Two nights out on the trail, no cell service, nothing to do but eat trail mix and stare at mountains I'll never get tired of.

• 11:19Dave Meyer?

  That's the whole appeal. But while I'm off-grid, my place doesn't need to sit empty. I can list my space on Airbnb and make a little extra income while I'm away. And with Airbnb's Co-host Network, I could partner with a vetted local co-host to help take care of the details, from guest communications to onsite support, so I can fully unplug and enjoy my time out in the backcountry. If you've got upcoming travel plans, you can find a co-host at Airbnb.com/host. Buying real estate has a funny way of making the future feel very real. You start thinking about mortgages, cash flow, tenants, and suddenly you realize, if something happened to me, would the people I love be okay?

• 12:01Dave Meyer?

  That's why life insurance is one of those things that's easy to put off, but is super important to actually deal with. Ethos makes getting life insurance fast and easy, 100% online. You can get a quote in seconds, apply in minutes, and potentially get a day coverage. There's no medical exam, you just answer a few simple health questions online. You can get up to $3 million in coverage, and some policies are as low as $30 a month. Ethos helps provide financial security and helps protect the people who depend on you. Take 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote at ethos.com/realestate. That's E-T-H-O-S dot com slash real estate. Application times may vary, rates may vary.

• 12:49Dave Meyer?

  Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I'm here talking about the upside era and why there is still so much potential in real estate despite everything that's going on. Before the break, we talked about how there's still a lot of demographic and macroeconomic fundamentals that point to positive opportunities for real estate investors. But let's go one level deeper. Let's just talk about, is real estate still a good asset class? Is it still a good way for you to pursue financial freedom? My first question, when people ask me this question, is what else are you going to do with your money? Because as investors, that's the game, right? The whole game is resource allocation.

• 13:31Dave Meyer?

  If whether you have 10 grand, you have 100 grand, or even a million dollars, being an investor is about deciding how to allocate that capital to different types of investments. You have to balance your own risk, you have to balance your own appetite for reward, and figure out where you're going to put your money, right? And I'll ask you, I will pose it to the audience today. If you're not going to invest in real estate, where else are you going to put your money today? To me, cryptocurrency, and I'm not a crypto hater, but cryptocurrency is speculation. It's not based on some of the fundamentals and intrinsic value that things like stocks and equities, bonds, or real estate offer. And so although you could earn huge returns in crypto, it's very risky and I would consider it speculation. All right, so then let's talk about the stock market.

• 14:16Dave Meyer?

  And if you've been watching and listening to the show, you know that even before the tariff announcements and the crash and recovery and then crash again, that's been going on over the last couple of weeks, I've been saying for several months now that I thought the stock market was overvalued, it was too expensive, and I sold about 25% of my entire portfolio, which is a sizable amount, because I wanted to get out of what I expected to be a volatile period in the stock market. That is proving to be true, and I might be wrong in the long run, but right now that decision is looking pretty good. But I made that decision because I looked at the stock market and said, the valuations are just way too high to justify buying in right now.

• 14:57Dave Meyer?

  And when I look historically at the stock market, it's just more volatile. And I like the stock market, I invest in the stock market, but this is just true. The math just shows it, that in any given year, there's more risk in the stock market than there is in real estate, which is much more of a slow, steady, stable type of asset, where the stock market goes up and down. The other thing about the stock market is that although it can really appreciate and build your net worth, it's not as easy to replace your income with the stock market as it is with real estate. Sure, you can get dividends from some stocks, but that's you know, 1 to 3%, whereas in real estate, you can buy a deal today off the MLS and

• 15:38Dave Meyer?

  get that equal or better cash on cash return. And the great thing about real estate is your cash on cash return grows over your hold period, and that's what really enables financial freedom over the long run. We could talk a little bit about bonds. They're not the most exciting thing because they're great for maintaining wealth. That's kind of what they're there for, but they don't build wealth. So unless you're already super wealthy, you don't want to put a ton of your money in bonds because it's just not going to grow that quickly and it's not going to offer you the same upside as some other asset classes. What about other things like private businesses? I actually think those are opportunities. Like if you wanted to go buy a laundromat or service business, like those I think do offer good returns, but they're super time consuming. You need

• 16:22Dave Meyer?

  to learn how to be an operator and they're a bit riskier, at least to me, than real estate. You know, real estate, very low risk of your assets going to zero. If you buy a private business, the chance of them going out of business or bankrupt is significantly, significantly higher. I do think like based on macroeconomics, like those are good investments, but you just have to consider if you're willing to take on that work and risk. So that brings us to real estate and why I just keep coming back to it as the best way to pursue long-term wealth. To me, there are basically four things about real estate that I really, really like. There's more than that, but I'm just going to share with you four things today that I like. One is the return diversity. You've probably heard this talked about on this show, but you don't just make money in real estate by the price

• 17:07Dave Meyer?

  of your property going up. That's what a lot of people think, but that is just one and maybe one of the least reliable ways of earning money in real estate. Instead, you make money from, yes, appreciation, from cash flow, you make money from amortization or paying down your loan using your rental income, and you also get amazing tax benefits. So those are all ways that you earn potentially great returns of one single investment. There is not any other asset class that I know of that offers that same potential. So that's number one. The second one is the income potential. I have talked about this a little bit before, but with real estate, you can get a cash on cash return in the first couple of years of 6%, 8%, 10%.

• 17:50Dave Meyer?

  If you hold on to that property, you can see a cash on cash return of 10%, 12%, 15%. You just don't see that ability to generate cash in the stock market, in bonds, or in cryptocurrency. And so, again, if your goal is to replace your income and long-term financial independence, that's why real estate is so valuable. Third is the market stability. And I know that there's always risk in the market. I am not trying to underplay that. There is risk in every investment in every asset class. But if you look back over the last 100 years of real estate, go do this, Google this at some point today. Go Google the median home price in the United States over the last 100 years. And what you'll see is remarkable consistency.

• 18:35Dave Meyer?

  It just goes up slow and steady. Now, 2008 was an exception to that. And I'm not saying that it's impossible for that to happen again, but that was an outlier. And it was caused by some pretty unique lending conditions that just don't exist today. Could there be a black swan event? Could something crazy happen with this trade war where the market crashes? Of course. But I personally don't believe like a significant market crash where we see prices in the housing market fall by 10% or more. It's not, at least right now, the most likely outcome. Instead, we're probably going to continue with what the housing market normally does, which is stay close to the pace of inflation.

• 19:17Dave Meyer?

  And then lastly is this concept of a risk-adjusted return profile. Now, I think a lot of, especially newer investors, sometimes miss this. They look at investments and just look at the potential upside, right? You look at crypto and you say, oh, my God, I know a guy who made 10,000% on Bitcoin. That's great. I also know a guy who lost 10,000% on Bitcoin too, right? It's a super volatile asset class. And as investors, as a smart investor, what you need to be thinking about is what asset class offers the best risk-adjusted return? This means take into account how much risk you're taking on while you're thinking about the amount of money that you can make at the same time.

• 20:02Dave Meyer?

  And for me, when I do those calculations, you look at bonds, right? That's one low end of the spectrum. You're not taking on a lot of risk, but you're not going to earn a great reward. On the other end of the spectrum is probably cryptocurrency, right? You might make amazing returns, but you might lose a lot of money. When I think about the right balance between risk and reward, real estate offers the best to me, the best risk-adjusted return, because there's all those ways to make money and it's relatively stable. And again, there is risk, but when I think about risk-adjusted returns, real estate sort of stands alone as an asset class, at least in my mind. So those are the big four things that I always like about real estate.

• 20:43Dave Meyer?

  Return, diversity, income potential, market stability, and risk-adjusted returns. Next, I want to address something really important about real estate investing and financial freedom. During the Goldilocks era, when everything was perfect, it became really common for people to want to or successfully quit their job through real estate. And a lot of people, primarily on social media or on YouTube or whatever, made it seem like this is the norm and that it only took a couple of years. But I want to make sure that everyone understands that even during that Goldilocks era, that was exceedingly rare. I know a lot of people who have quote, unquote, quit their jobs only to go on to be a real estate agent or a loan officer.

• 21:28Dave Meyer?

  And that is totally fine. Like, that's a great career decision for a lot of people. But my main point is that even during the Goldilocks era, it took somewhere between eight to 10 years to achieve financial freedom. And I'm not just making that up. I actually did the math. Like, if you were to have an average price job, if you were to buy the average price home over the period from 2013 to 2022, the amount of time it would take you to replace your income entirely usually takes about eight to 10 years, which is still amazing, right? The average career in the United States is 45 years. So you're saying you're cutting that down by a massive, massive amount. That was during the Goldilocks era. What about today, right? I began this episode by saying that the real estate market has changed.

• 22:12Dave Meyer?

  So how much has that changed? Well, it has, but my math says that now you could achieve it between eight to 12 years instead of eight to 10 years. So what I'm saying here is that even if you just bought the average price deal and bought them at a relatively modest pace every other year or so. In eight to 12 years, even today, during all these crazy things, in eight to 12 years, you can buy enough real estate to entirely replace your current income. And the interesting thing about the math here is it doesn't actually matter if you make $50,000 a year or $100,000 a year. The amount of time it takes is actually relatively simple because if you're, you know, making 50 grand a year, you have to replace less income, so you need to buy

• 22:57Dave Meyer?

  less properties. It might take you longer between buying properties, but you have to buy less. Meanwhile, if you make 100 grand, you're going to need to buy more, but it'll be relatively easier because you have a higher income. But just take a minute to think about what I'm saying here. Even though investing conditions have changed and we're not in this magical Goldilocks era, and there are tariffs, and there's trade wars, and there's so much going on, in eight to 12 years, just buying average-priced properties, doing the most plain type of long-term rental property investing, you can replace your income in eight to 12 years. That is amazing. And if that does not get you excited and eager and ready to go invest in real estate, I don't know what will. To me, that is what keeps me going every single day.

• 23:42Dave Meyer?

  It's what got me into this in the first place. If you take something away from this episode, I hope you all can see that that is still absolutely possible if you're willing to adapt and learn how to find upside in this new era. So hopefully I've sold you because I'm super in on real estate and I just really believe in the long-term benefits of real estate. So let's talk about if you are into it, if you buy what I am selling right now, how do you find upside? How do you find deals here in 2025? We're going to get into that right after this break.

• 24:16Dave Meyer?

  For my wife's birthday, I wanted to make her a new website for her landscape design business. So I researched a lot of different options. I tried out a couple, but honestly, it was really overwhelming. It was pretty time-consuming and still, the site wasn't coming out the way I wanted it to. Then I tried Hostinger and everything was super simple. I asked Hostinger's AI to build a clean site for her business. And it had a working version up in minutes. No coding or designer needed. Plus, its AI agent helps with SEO, website copy and email marketing after launch. You get domain, website, email, all in one account. And right now, you can get Black Friday and Cyber Monday pricing through December 14th.

• 25:01Dave Meyer?

  So snag Hostinger services at their lowest prices before the sale ends. Create your website today for just $1.99. Go to hostinger.com/realestate and use code REALESTATE for an additional 10% off Black Friday and Cyber Monday pricing. I just booked a ski trip to Park City, and I've already got the whole thing planned out. Five days, first tracks every morning before the crowds show up, my knees reminding me I'm not 25 anymore by the second run, and an embarrassing number of overpriced burritos at the lodge. I don't even care. This is the trip I look forward to all year. But here's the part I actually appreciate. The practical side of my brain kicking in is that my place doesn't have to just sit there

• 25:45Dave Meyer?

  empty the whole time I'm away. I can list my space on Airbnb and bring in a little extra income while I'm out getting humbled on a mountain. And with the co-host network, I'm not the one handling all of it. You can partner with a vetted local co-host who can create your listing, manage reservations, message guests, and even handle the styling. So I get to fully focus on my trip, and my place is still working for me the whole time. Find a co-host at airbnb.com/host. Investing in real estate has always been smart, but it hasn't always been simple. Now, it's both, thanks to the Fundrise Flagship Fund. The Fundrise Flagship Fund launched more than five years ago with a mission of delivering low-fee

• 26:29Dave Meyer?

  access to blue-chip private market real estate. Today, the Fundrise Flagship Fund has grown to manage more than $1 billion of real estate on behalf of hundreds of thousands of investors, making it one of the largest funds of its kind. For those who believe real estate has an important role to play in their portfolio strategy, the Fundrise Flagship Fund has positioned its As both a simple and a smart option. Whether you're starting with $10 or $10,000, the Fundrise Flagship Fund makes adding real estate's unique potential for both passive income and consistent growth. Just visit fundrise.com/pockets to make your first investment today. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks,

• 27:12Dave Meyer?

  charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at fundrise.com/flagship. This is a paid advertisement.

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• 28:08Henry Washington?

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• 29:34Dave Meyer?

  Hey everyone. Welcome back to the bigger pockets podcast. We're here talking about the upside era. Why real estate is still such a great asset class to invest in. And we're going to turn our conversation now into if you're in, if you want to be active in the real estate market, how do you find deals? Because deals frankly, one of the changes from the Goldilocks era to the upside era is that deals are everywhere, but they are just not as obvious as they used to be. You have to dig a little bit deeper. You have to look a little bit harder to identify the upside. Now I've been saying this word upside a lot, but what does that actually mean? To me, it is some characteristic of a property or a deal that you're buying that can take the

• 30:19Dave Meyer?

  deal from a good deal today to something that is excellent over the long run. And today I'm going to share with you seven upsides that I'm particularly excited about. There's probably way more than this, but these are ones that I am looking for in my own portfolio. They are rent growth, value add investing, buying deep, zoning upside, owner occupied strategies, the path of progress and learning. Those are the seven. I'm going to go through each of them one by one and explain to you why finding a deal with one or ideally like two or three of these upsides can take you from a good deal today to an amazing deal over the long run. First up is rent growth. I personally believe that macroeconomic conditions are developing in

• 31:02Dave Meyer?

  a way that in the next couple of years, rent growth is probably going to accelerate. And over the last two or three years, we've seen rent growth go really flat due to this big glut of supply in the market. But the pendulum is swinging back in the other direction. And that means that there is going to be a lack of supply, but there's still going to be strong demand from millennials and Gen Z to rent homes. And that's going to push up rents over time. So why is this an upside? Well, if you buy a deal today that has cash on cash return of two or three or 4%, that might not sound super exciting, but if rent starts growing at four or five or 6% for several years, maybe starting next year and continuing for a couple of years,

• 31:46Dave Meyer?

  that cash on cash return could go from modest to really, really good over just a couple of years. And that, to me, is huge upside. Second is value add. If you haven't heard this term, this is just basically building equity in your properties through improving it. This can be flipping. This can be brr. This can be just renovating a property you already own to drive up rents. But I think this value add strategy works well in almost any market conditions, but works particularly well right now in the upside era. We're seeing this sort of splitting of the housing market where properties that need renovations are sort of flat in prices. And in some places, in some cases, they're actually going down.

• 32:28Dave Meyer?

  But meanwhile, renovated properties or stabilized properties, as you may hear them called, those prices are stable or going up. And so that means often the gap between what you're able to buy a property for and sell it for, if you're going to do a renovation, is widening, which improves your potential for profit. To me, this is an exciting thing because if you go out and look on the MLS, you might not see this perfectly renovated rental property that's going to generate you a 10% cash on cash return. But if you're willing to buy a property and then fix it up and rent it out, you have enormous potential to make profit here in the upside era. And not just rentals. This works for Airbnbs. This works for flipping too. Value add just works right now.

• 33:10Dave Meyer?

  The third thing in the upside era, and this one's getting even better, I think, every single day, is buying deep. This is the concept of finding deals and buying them for under-market value. And I know that sounds super easy. It's like, yeah, everyone wants to do that. But right now, again, given what I was just saying about this sort of splitting of the housing market, we are seeing conditions where this, I think, is going to become easier. The market is softening and we are moving towards a buyer's market. And that does mean, in a lot of cases, appreciation might slow down over the next couple of years. That's important to note in your underwriting. But what it means is that buyers get the power and buyers get to negotiate deals that they probably couldn't get even during this Goldilocks era because there was too much competition.

• 33:56Dave Meyer?

  And this is a huge upside because if you buy a deal under its actual market value, you're making money from day one. That is huge upside, right? You're walking in to equity in your deal that normally might take years of market appreciation to achieve. And so, yes, appreciation might be slowing down a little bit, but there are other ways to build equity and realize upside by buying deep. The fourth, this one is nerdy, but I love this one so much. It is zoning upside. If you're not familiar, zoning is basically the laws that each state and city have that dictate what types of properties you're allowed to build on a given piece of land. And for generations in the United States, zoning has been pretty restrictive, right?

• 34:41Dave Meyer?

  You're not allowed to build an ADU or a second unit in your backyard. You need to have all these parking requirements or setbacks, and it makes building new units really difficult. That is one of the reasons we have supply problems in the United States in the housing market. But governments are getting wise to this and all across the country in red states and blue states, all over, there is this wave of zoning reform, which is making it easier to build new units and to add capacity. So this can come in the form of putting an apartment above your garage, building a new unit in your basement, taking a single family you have and turning it into a duplex. These are all awesome ways to add upside, right?

• 35:23Dave Meyer?

  Just think about that. You could buy a property that's a single family home and you can put an entirely new unit on it. And the cost of putting that new unit is going to be proportionately so much less than just going out and buying a second single family home, that your return on building that ADU, that return on building that second unit is going to be really, really high if you do it, right? They can be really, really high and that provides enormous upside. And one of the reasons I personally like this upside is because you don't have to do it on day one. I'll share with you a little bit more about this in a little bit in an example, but I bought this property that's a duplex, but it's zoned for up to six units. The duplex is cash flowing great right now, but I have this upside potential over the

• 36:05Dave Meyer?

  long run to turn this property into a six unit property and I probably will one day. The next upside is owner occupied. Sometimes in today's day and age, if you just go on a listing platform, you go on bigger deals and try and check out where you can find a rental property, you might not find as many deals as you're looking for. But if you are willing to live in the property, so many more properties become available to you because you don't have to generate huge amounts of cash flow to make those types of deals work. They just have to significantly reduce your cost of living to the point where you are saving more money and improving your overall financial situation. And I think

• 36:45Dave Meyer?

  this is really important right now because one of the reasons real estate is so valuable and such a good long-term strategy is that if you can find properties that are just in great locations, a great asset with strong intrinsic value, and you can hold on to that, that is going to build a lot of wealth for you over the long run. Some of those properties right now don't cash flow and don't make sense unless you owner occupy them. So the reason owner occupied strategy offers upside is it may mean that you can get into a property that otherwise wouldn't cash flow and get a really good, strong, long-term asset that you can control. And over two or three years, when rents go up, if you have that upside as well,

• 37:30Dave Meyer?

  you can move out of that property, move on somewhere else. And at that point, it probably will be cash flowing. And you can have this amazing asset that you otherwise wouldn't be able to buy. Now, house hacking is only one example of owner occupied strategies. There's also the live-in flip, which I am doing right now, which is a way that you can build massive amounts of equity using the value add upside. And you get huge tax advantages because if you live in a property for two plus years, when you go and sell it, you don't pay capital gains, which is amazing. So owner occupied, amazing upside here. Next upside is the path of progress. This is the idea of trying to buy in a place that has a high probability of appreciating above the market or area average.

• 38:15Dave Meyer?

  And there's no way to guarantee where things are going to appreciate. But if you like this kind of thing, I really like this kind of thing, studying different markets to try and find where infrastructure investments are going, where job growth is going, where amenities are being placed. Those are places that historically speaking, prices of those houses tend to go up faster than in other areas. And so if you can buy a property that's good today in this path of progress, the upside era that could go from being a good property today to being an amazing property over the next couple of years. The last upside that I want to mention is learning. And this one gets really overlooked. But I think, especially in today's day and age, if you can find a deal that is good today,

• 39:01Dave Meyer?

  has maybe one or two of the other upsides, and you're going to learn a lot by doing that deal, that is huge upside for the long-term of your investing career. I mentioned earlier that I'm doing this live-in flip, and one of the main reasons is I want To get better at managing constructions and renovation. I've done it a little bit in my career. I don't think I'm an expert. I think it's one of the biggest weaknesses in my investing arsenal. And a live-in flip, because I found a good property and it has this good value add upside. It has the owner occupied upside is going to teach me a lot of the skills that I wanted to learn. And that's going to help me with the next deal I get and the next deal after that. And so don't just think about the immediate return that each property is going to get you.

• 39:46Dave Meyer?

  I encourage people to think sort of holistically, long-term about your portfolio. And what you're getting out of this property hopefully will be financial. I'm not saying buy a bad deal. You're, you need to be generating a positive financial return. But don't overlook the sort of less quantifiable benefits that you could get from deals right now. Like learning, building your network and just generally improving as an investor. So those were the seven upsides I want to mention today. Just as a reminder, they are rent growth, value add, buying deep, zoning, owner occupied, path of progress and learning. So let's tie this thing together and talk about how to actually make the deals in this upside era work.

• 40:26Dave Meyer?

  And to do that, I'm going to share with you my buy box and basically my philosophy for investing here in 2025. So my buy box for the majority of my portfolio is small multifamily and single family homes. That's number one, I'm focusing on those. Number two, I want break even cash flow minimum. And I know a lot of people say that break even cash flow is not worth it. I disagree if you have the right upsides. I would take break even cash flow if I had four or five solid upsides. If I only had one upside, I would need the cash flow to be six or seven percent today. So it really depends on what the long-term benefit is to your deal.

• 41:07Dave Meyer?

  And for me, I will never buy a deal that doesn't cash flow, at least within the first year. But I'm willing to take lower cash flow if the long-term potential of the property is really high. So that's number two. Number three is I want at least a 10% annualized return on investment in year one. I want my ROI to hit immediately. So that's one of the reasons I don't take negative cash flow deals. Please be sure, I'm not saying a 10% cash on cash return in year one. I'm going to add up together my cash on cash return, my appreciation, my amortization, any value add that I do, and my tax benefits. And I want that to beat 10%. Why 10%? Because the stock market on average returns about 8%.

• 41:52Dave Meyer?

  And I want to be better than the stock market because real estate takes work. And so I need to outperform the stock market by at least a couple of percentage points in year one to make it worth my time. And then over the next couple of years, as we've talked about, that AAROI will probably go to 12%, to 15%, 20%. But I want to make sure it's worth my time in that first year, so I'm looking for 10%. Then the last thing is I want that potential for my ROI to go up to 15% within two years. So I'm trying to be aggressive here, right? You probably hear me saying break even cash flow. It's like, oh, that's a bad deal. No, I'm willing to take break even cash flow at the outset, but it has to at least beat the stock market in that first year. And then I need that 15% AAROI within two years.

• 42:36Dave Meyer?

  And that's where real estate is really good, right? You're not getting that in most normal years in the stock market. You do in some years, but the average is 8%. I want to have within two years, a property that's making me 15%. And that's going to help me outperform the stock market and almost every other asset class over the long run. So that's basically what I'm looking for. And just to be clear, like those deals that I'm looking for, I typically require them to have at least two, ideally three upsides. So I need to either be in the path of progress and I'm buying it deep and getting a really good deal. Or I need it to be an owner occupied deal with huge value add potential and also some zoning upside, right? It's not just one or the other with the upsides. Like ideally you combine all of them because maybe not all of them come true in the same

• 43:22Dave Meyer?

  way that you're wishing. But if you want the best risk adjusted return, if you have two or three of these upsides, you're like almost certainly going to hit one of them and start to see the return on your deal get better and better over time. As one quick example, I bought a property in the Midwest. It's a duplex. I bought it for $252,000. When I bought it, the rent was 2,300 bucks a month. So it was already at a 1% rule, but this is a place where there's high taxes and high insurance. And so it was coming out to a little bit better than break even, but not that much better. I did a rehab on it, so value add upside, right? I put $18,000 into it and after that, my rent growth went up to 2,750 and the ARV went up to 320,000.

• 44:06Dave Meyer?

  So this deal is already working for me and I still have upside. This is in an A-plus location, right? This is a deal that's in the path of progress, so there's going to be rent upside. I have zoning upside. This was the one I mentioned earlier that it's zoned up to six units, so I can add four more additional units. And I did my first burr in this new market, which was a lot of learning upside. This was a smaller deal, a smaller renovation, where I could spend just $18,000 to learn, get to know my contractors, get to know my team, and that's going to make the next deal even better for me. So just as example, I bought that deal on the market. It was barely breaking even and now it's gone to a deal that's going to outperform the stock market.

• 44:50Dave Meyer?

  It's going to offer me well above that 10% AARO I'm looking for and there's still a ton of upside to make this deal better over the next couple of years. This, my friends, this is what makes real estate investing still so exciting right now. I bought this deal on market, on the MLS. You all can do the exact same things and realize these exact same upsides. The other deal I'll just share with you, it's just like kind of totally different, but it's one that I'm working on currently, is a live-in flip. I bought this property, super expensive. I live in the Pacific Northwest. Purchase price was 825,000 and this thing was a complete dump, total gut rehab. It's going to cost 240,000 to renovate it. It's going to cost me 100 grand just in holding cost, but...

• 45:34Dave Meyer?

  The ARV of this property is going to be $1.5 million. And so what I'm doing is saving myself almost $200,000 over buying an equivalent house. Like if I just wanted to go buy a $1.5 million house to live in, I would be paying more $210,000 more in my down payment and equity than I am by doing this. And during the same time, I'm going to lower my monthly living costs from what I am paying right now today. It's going to go down by a thousand dollars a month. So those are great upsides, right? I have this value add upside. I have the owner occupied upside. And again, for me, this is a learning upside. As I mentioned earlier, I'm really trying to improve my construction management and

• 46:18Dave Meyer?

  project management skills and get more experience there. And doing a live-in flip is an amazing way to get that learning upside as well. All right, guys, that is what I got for you today. Hopefully you all see what I'm talking about here, that yes, things have changed, but there are still amazing deals. I just shared with you two deals that I'm doing. When I was thinking about writing this episode, I actually asked some of my colleagues at BiggerPockets for deals that they've done, and they sent tons of deals just like the ones that I'm talking about that are good deals today. They beat the stock market. They beat other asset classes today, and then they just get better from there. So as we leave this episode, just a couple takeaways for you to remember is one, yes, things have changed, but there are still good deals.

• 47:01Dave Meyer?

  Real estate, this is, you know, a subjective opinion, but to me, still offers the best risk-adjusted returns even despite what's going on, because real estate is a long game. The long-term fundamentals are still really good. And then the third thing, make sure to find two or three upsides that take what should be a good deal today and turn it into a home run over the lifetime of your investment. If you guys have any questions about the upside era, or what this means, or how you can get involved, please let me know. If you're watching this on YouTube, drop something in the comments, or if you're listening on audio, you can always find me on biggerpockets.com. You can send me a direct message there. I read all of them. Or you can also find me on Instagram where I'm at the Data Deli.

• 47:43Dave Meyer?

  Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. We'll see you next time.

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• 48:01Dave Meyer?

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