OpenAI–AMD Deal, DevDay Reactions, xAI’s Memphis Datacenter | Doug O'Laughlin, Celine Halioua

(00:17) - OpenAI DevDay Reactions (30:05) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (38:42) - OpenAI–AMD Deal (50:07) - xAI’s Memphis Datacenter (56:12) - Doug O'Laughlin, CFA, is the President of SemiAnalysis, an independent research firm specializing in semiconductors and AI. In the conversation, he discusses OpenAI's strategic partnerships with companies like Nvidia, AMD, and SK Hynix, suggesting that OpenAI is involving multiple stakeholders to create a vested interest in its success. He also highlights the significant capital investments required for AI infrastructure and the potential for major tech companies to leverage their strong balance sheets to fund these developments. (01:31:40) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:51:17) - Celine Halioua, founder and CEO of Loyal, is developing FDA-approved drugs aimed at extending the lifespan and healthspan of dogs. In the conversation, she discusses the challenges of creating longevity drugs, the regulatory landscape, and the potential for translating canine aging research to human applications. She also highlights the importance of operational excellence and the need for rigorous scientific validation in the field of aging therapeutics. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jordi Hays?

  You're watching TVP.

• 0:02John Coogan?

  Today is Monday, October 6, 2025.

• 0:04Jordi Hays?

  1999.

• 0:06John Coogan?

  1999. Is it January or is it December 1999? We don't know. We're going to figure it out. Uh, we're live from the TVPAN Ultra Dome, the Temple of Technology, the Forces of Finance, the Capital of Capital. Today is OpenAI's Dev Day. Uh, 1,500 people are attending. It's their biggest event ever. They're in Fort Mason. Uh, Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are going to be given a fireside chat. That'll be fun. Uh, there's been rumors that the hardware device that they're building is delayed. Uh, but I kind of don't care. I read the Financial Times. We'll, we'll dig into the Financial Times report, but, um, you know, it's supposed to come out in 2026, might be pushed a little bit. Uh, I don't.

• 0:45Jordi Hays?

  Nothing about the leak made me want it.

• 0:48John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, exactly. Like, I don't doubt that they're going to be able to ship a product. Like, it's Johnny Ive and Sam Altman. They're going to be able to figure out how to manufacture something and sell something. My take was that there are two things that they need to solve that are way more important than like, can they get a manufacturer to make it and ship it? Like, that's not the problem. The, the first one is, will people adopt the form factor they pick? I, the rumor's no screen, which has been tried before by startups with little success. And I remain pretty pilled on what the Meta head of wearables told us about like, these Lindy form factors, the watch, the tablet computer, the notebook, the hat, the glasses. Uh, if you were selling me a smart hat, I might be more down. Uh,

• 1:32John Coogan?

  I mean, the chain, I, I, I guess like the Jesus piece, the smart Jesus piece could be, you know, you're, you're building AI God. Why not create a talisman?

• 1:41Jordi Hays?

  Bigger and bigger chains for more compute.

• 1:45John Coogan?

  Uh, something, something there. Um, but the pen always felt a little odd. Uh, and it seems like it's harder to get people to swap over. Um, but the biggest, the, the second thing that's like really crazy is, um, there are just insane lock-in effects that not even Johnny Ive can overcome when competing with Apple. We talked about this with Meta Ray-Ban displays. You don't get iMessage notifications in Meta Ray-Ban.

• 2:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, imagine if you had personal superintelligence in this new device form factor.

• 2:16John Coogan?

  You're using the meta buzzword, but this is also what, uh,

• 2:19Jordi Hays?

  And it could do anything in the world. Except send messages on your behalf.

• 2:23John Coogan?

  Text your wife. Except for like checking on your kids or like text your buddy from college. Like that is a serious, serious missing piece of any hardware device that is not going to be integrated. iMessage has become so dominant. It's been remarkable.

• 2:40Jordi Hays?

  Well, and one thing.

• 2:40John Coogan?

  It's a social network, but now I do.

• 2:42Jordi Hays?

  One thing that we can take away from the humane AI pin is that, and again, the humane AI pin from my sense of the leaks around the Johnny Ive project is that it's not that different. It's, it's, it's more similar to the humane AI pin in my head right now than it is different.

• 3:03John Coogan?

  I mean, the humane pin had that like screen that was like the projector. I think they're doing away with that entirely, going voice only. It's clear that like, uh, uh, speech to text is good enough now that you could have a voice interface. I mean, I'm sure that they've seen in the analytics for the chat GPT app. What's the latest data? Eight hundred million weekly active users.

• 3:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that was in the Dev Day, uh, like presentation.

• 3:25John Coogan?

  And I think Jordy had a question for you about that. Is that good?

• 3:30Jordi Hays?

  I heard the number. I thought there's a lot of big numbers thrown around. Usually they're in the billions these days.

• 3:35John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, kind of sandbagging, honestly.

• 3:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 3:37John Coogan?

  Get to a billion, dude.

• 3:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 3:39John Coogan?

  Come on. Um, but, uh, uh, getting that, uh, to actually, uh, reach a, reach a point where people are, um, you know, using this with their iMessage. There's a bunch of interesting workarounds. Like, I could imagine the real prosumers, the real techie folks being like, yes, I, I have a Mac at home that runs a piece of software that like screen scrapes and interacts and puppeteers all the Apple apps and sucks all the information out of that and puts it wherever I want. I don't think Apple's gonna take kindly to that. I think they're gonna throw up a bunch of barriers and people are gonna be really, really sticky staying in their Apple ecosystem.

• 4:21John Coogan?

  At least for like a year or two until Apple can just catch up and kind of clone it back.

• 4:27Jordi Hays?

  I'm just not at all convinced that we need a new device for the current state of models.

• 4:35John Coogan?

  Yeah. When you think about.

• 4:36Jordi Hays?

  But new, new, new devices are exciting. They, they, they're great for building hype. If you look at,

• 4:46Jordi Hays?

  you know, friend.com gets 10 times the amount of attention that it does if it was just a, maybe even a hundred or a thousand, if it was just a website.

• 4:54John Coogan?

  This is a good take.

• 4:54Jordi Hays?

  That was kind of an angry friend.

• 4:57John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 4:58Jordi Hays?

  You know, you, you, you, they, they get a lot of attention and excitement because you're, you're, you're getting into the conversation around net new platforms.

• 5:05John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 5:06Jordi Hays?

  And new hardware layers, but we've just seen with humane, you can build, you can build something that's built natively around AI and it can be a very functional device, right? Nobody was arguing with humane that it wasn't. Like it didn't do, like it technically did what it said it was gonna do. It's just what it does is not that useful.

• 5:28John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:29Jordi Hays?

  When you compare it to the cell phone that's already in everyone's pockets.

• 5:32John Coogan?

  Yeah. Or when you compare it to ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, a whole lot more, all in one place. When are we going to get the hardware device from, I mean, it is a technically a hardware company. You get the card. The card is hardware. It's a hardware company. The, yeah, the, the, the humane device was a little rough. It just, it, it, it just feels like there's more opportunity than there is because of how slow Apple moves. But when you think about them partnering with Anthropic at some point, and yeah, you're not chatting with GPT-5, but you're chatting with Claude and

• 6:09John Coogan?

  you can do that on your AirPods, on your phone and on your watch and on your glasses. Like it's just their game to lose. I feel like in terms of hardware. Like they'd really have to mess up to not eventually deliver something when the time is right.

• 6:24Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Because again, AirPods are like a 20 plus billion dollar revenue run rate product. It's good.

• 6:31Jordi Hays?

  Great for audio and integrated and you can hear the outside world coming in and

• 6:37John Coogan?

  I just remember like when I was a kid, there was a little bit of like an arms race for hardware devices and Apple was behind on a lot of things. Like they came out with the iPod and there was this company called the iRiver that was ahead of them on releasing features. So the iPod had a black and white screen and this other company came out with essentially an iPod. It blew it out of the water on specs. It had a had a color screen. You could watch movies on it, had way more, it was way cheaper. And Android has done that a lot where the Android phones have had more advanced features many, many times, but people are just locked in.

• 7:18Jordi Hays?

  I just looked up the iRiver. It looks like a vape.

• 7:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 7:21Jordi Hays?

  This was some crazy hardware back then.

• 7:23John Coogan?

  It was great. It was great times.

• 7:26Jordi Hays?

  Did you see Soham Perik was weighing in?

• 7:29John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 7:29Jordi Hays?

  On AMD deal. When Soham Perik, the real Soham Perik is weighing in on on some of these circular deals.

• 7:40John Coogan?

  Is this the real account?

• 7:41Jordi Hays?

  That's the real account.

• 7:42John Coogan?

  There were several knockoff accounts. This is the real account?

• 7:44Jordi Hays?

  It just so happened that the real account was at real Soham Perik.

• 7:48John Coogan?

  Okay, okay.

• 7:49Jordi Hays?

  He says Nvidia, Oracle, OpenAI, AMD, what a time to be alive. Certainly is.

• 7:54John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 7:54Jordi Hays?

  Got to get the update from him. How is his life post?

• 7:59John Coogan?

  Going exclusive.

• 8:00Jordi Hays?

  Going exclusive.

• 8:01John Coogan?

  Going exclusive. Yeah, we're having Doug Olafland from Fabricated Knowledge on the show in a little bit. And one of my big questions is like, how deep will this go? We've heard stories about Sam Altman doing deals, talking to TSMC. And I'm wondering, like, does this get to the point where he's talking about, he's talking to ASML, he's talking to like, like niche lithography machinery manufacturers about scaling up? Like, he is actively trying to get the entire supply chain.

• 8:26Jordi Hays?

  He should start going around to every company and saying, if you give me warrants, I'll announce a partnership and you're and

• 8:34John Coogan?

  It seems to be working.

• 8:35Jordi Hays?

  Your stock will go up. On average, we've seen the the market caps rise, you know, between 20 and 30%. And I'd love to be able to do the same with you.

• 8:45John Coogan?

  People are into the OpenAI economy. They are truly propping it up. Well, if you're watching OpenAI Dev Day later, it's probably on Restream, Restream.io, one livestream, 30 plus destinations, multi-streaming to reach your audience, wherever they are, sign up for free. What else is in here? They're launching agent builder. Tyler, do you have an update on what they actually launched? I wrote a take kind of based on the leaks and the and the previews, and I'd love to hear your feedback on my take. But what what do we know so far?

• 9:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, so they did. It's already over, or the main livestream. Did you just say Tyler at TVPN says it's so over?

• 9:24John Coogan?

  I thought I thought we were so back.

• 9:25Speaker 02

  It's already over. No, no, we are. We're so back.

• 9:28John Coogan?

  We will get the we will get the timeline update from you in just a little bit. But give us the facts of what was launched and what the product is.

• 9:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, OK, so there were four, four like main, main kind of things. So the first one was like apps in chat GPT. So this was like they showed Zillow. It's kind of just like a little web view. There was like a Figma thing where you can you can prompt Figma. It's almost kind of like a Figma make thing. But just just it's still on like chat GPT.com.

• 9:54John Coogan?

  Yep. And it requires you to actually have an account there. And so like the company that's partnering with them is like monetizing through their traditional path. But then they're using chat GPT as like a front end.

• 10:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, and they announced like soon it's going to be like more open. There's only, I think there was like maybe eight or 10 companies doing it right now. They're announcing like more ways that it's going to be monetized. And then they did, there's like the agent builder. This was the the leaked kind of video where it's it's almost like a

• 10:20John Coogan?

  Node based workflow.

• 10:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's almost like almost like a Zapier kind of thing where it's just like a little bit more intelligent. But there are still, it's like, you know, if if statements, just like a single

• 10:29John Coogan?

  Does it have cron jobs too?

• 10:31Speaker 02

  I think so, yeah.

• 10:32John Coogan?

  So so in theory, I could say every day, check my email, create a digest, then go and do a deep research report on what's going on in the tech news and synthesize my inbox against the tech news to surface anything relevant. So if the CEO of AMD has emailed me and AMD is in the news, I definitely want to get back to them immediately because we want Lisa on the show, something like that.

• 10:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. But I mean, it is. There's a big difference between this and kind of what what people usually think of as like agents.

• 11:06John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 11:06Speaker 02

  Like when this is very different than Uh, what was the, the thing they, they launched a while ago?

• 11:12John Coogan?

  Well, they have.

• 11:13Speaker 02

  Operator?

• 11:13John Coogan?

  Yeah, they have Operator.

• 11:14Speaker 02

  Which is quite different from.

• 11:15John Coogan?

  And then they have, which has browser. And then they have agent mode.

• 11:18Jordi Hays?

  How many times have you used Operator in the last three months, Tyler?

• 11:22Speaker 02

  I don't, I honestly, this is pretty bad, but I don't know if I ever used Operator.

• 11:26John Coogan?

  I used Operator a few times. It got kind of stuck on like Capchas and stuff the one time. But I have used agent mode more recently and that's been, it's kind of like deep research plus. Like it can just go farther into websites. Like if it, if it can go on to a website like Zillow or Redfin and, and it doesn't just need to be like blog posts and summary articles and PDFs. It feels like it can actually go to a website and then type in search results and get a whole bunch more data. It's, it does seem like a better product, but it doesn't seem like it's having crazy takeoff in terms of adoption.

• 11:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. Um, and then, so the, the, the third thing was about Codex.

• 12:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:02Speaker 02

  So Codex was in, um, research preview. It's now like GA.

• 12:06John Coogan?

  Mm hmm.

• 12:07Speaker 02

  I, I don't think that there weren't a ton of like big updates, um, there. And then the fourth thing was just like various APIs. So there's, um, there's a Sora 2 API. It's, uh, 10 cents per second, which is like quite cheap. That's much cheaper than I thought it would be.

• 12:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. Wait, we were debating this, right? It was $3 per generation on VO3, right?

• 12:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, around that. That sounds right.

• 12:28John Coogan?

  And they give you three. So if you truly took advantage of your VO3 account, allegedly, uh, you were basically break even for them, but no one did. Like I would generate three and then I would forget about it for a week and then I'd come back and generate the max. But it seems like they did, they did figure out how to optimize inference to some, one order of magnitude, not two, which we were kind of speculating about.

• 12:49Speaker 02

  Yeah. And then there's, uh, Sora 2 Pro, which.

• 12:51John Coogan?

  They could be subsidizing it though. We, we, we still.

• 12:53Speaker 02

  I'm sure it's still subsidized to some extent. Uh, but then there's Sora 2 Pro, which is like 30 seconds.

• 12:58John Coogan?

  That's pretty good.

• 12:59Speaker 02

  No, 30 cents per second.

• 13:00John Coogan?

  Okay. And it's a little bit longer, right? It can go from like eight seconds. It can go to like 15 seconds or something.

• 13:05Speaker 02

  Uh, yeah, I think so.

• 13:06John Coogan?

  That's pretty cool.

• 13:07Jordi Hays?

  Is it worth reading into the AMD announcement happening the same day as dev day? You think it just had so much motion? That it was just gonna get announced as soon as it was ready, or do you think this was?

• 13:20John Coogan?

  I think there's like multiple tracks going on and Sam's just pushing both like full tilt. Because last, last week, there was, you know, the Nvidia deal, the Oracle deal, the Broadcom deal. Like, all of those things were happening simultaneously with the launch of like GPT-5, Sora, the app. Uh, th- th- there was another announcement that they'd launched, oh, the Pulse app, like the actual, like ad inventory, agentic commerce, like, there's just been a new release on the product side every day. And then there's also been a business deal every day, like we got the Tinder deal. Like, these things feel like they're, like, they're not able to time up one next to the other. It doesn't matter, they're just like all flowing really freely. Um, much like wallet infrastructure for every bank from Privy.

• 14:01John Coogan?

  Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely suspend up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on-chain infrastructure all through one simple API. So, my, my take, and I'd love both of your feedback, was that, uh, this feels like something that puts us in like the prosumer world of AI. So, right now, I view AI as, there's the consumer world, which is just, uh, you go to ChatGPT, you ask it how to make banana bread, it gives you a recipe. Uh, you, you are not expensing that, you're not underwriting that as some sort of like business value. You're just using it like Google search, knowledge retrieval, maybe you're chatting with it as a friend

• 14:41John Coogan?

  or whatever, uh, and that needs to be monetized with ads, that needs to be free over a long period of time. Then you have like enterprise software, the SaaS-ification of AI, the, the, the, if you have a true business workflow that you are automating, you're probably working with LLMs at the API level, building software, and then potentially selling that software to other people. And so, this looks like, you know, I, I went to, you know, like Ramp got better at tagging receipts, and it's like, I didn't even notice, I'm not chatting with anything necessarily. It's just doing stuff behind the scenes because every company is integrating those. My, my question is, we've heard rumors of like getting to the $2,000 per month, uh, bill

• 15:26John Coogan?

  for OpenAI features, like, does this agent builder potentially get us there? Do we wind up in a world where, um, you know? We've seen this before with like when images and chat GPT launched, everyone generated like a few Studio Gibli's like the day of. But then six months later, it's kind of bifurcated into consumers use it every once in a while as like a fun thing. But then there are professional people that are in it basically all day long as a workflow tool. Because they're a visual artist and they need it as a canvas to pull from and then edit and create other stuff. Or they're doing blog images or they have a variety of reasons for using that product.

• 16:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 16:05John Coogan?

  And they use it in a professional workplace, basically. And and I'm wondering if if some of these agentic workflows will have serious inference costs. Because you you're wiring them up and you're saying like, go to GPT five pro every single day. And write up GPT five pro query for every single, you know, news item on my to do list. And then generate a Sora two video, weave that in and you wind up, you wind up spending like $10 a day. Or or $50 a day and pretty quickly.

• 16:36Jordi Hays?

  Trey in the chat says, maybe you aren't expensing banana bread recipes, but I am.

• 16:40John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 16:42Jordi Hays?

  Depends how elite the banana bread is.

• 16:44John Coogan?

  Sure, if you're a baker.

• 16:45Jordi Hays?

  Amazingly strategic asset.

• 16:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, if you're a baker. And and so and so I wonder like, we are getting to this point where some people are are thinking about. Their open AI use, you're underwriting it under some sort of loose business value. You might be expensing it, you're thinking more seriously about this. And I wonder if we'll get to basically consumption based pricing in like a prosumer type world. Based on these flows, we we see that with the Sora two stuff right now, it's all it's all balanced to be free. But you have a rate limit, I wonder if we'll see the agent builder, if you're really hitting this thing constantly. If they will start.

• 17:26John Coogan?

  Charging more for people. I think there's a little bit of like organ rejection from consumers where they're like, I I'm much more comfortable just saying I'm paying 200 bucks a month and maybe I'm using it not enough. Maybe I'm using, but I want the all you can eat plan.

• 17:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I guess my question for you, do you do you expect average consumer at any point to be building out a variety of workflows?

• 17:47John Coogan?

  No, no. So, so I I see them as like two, two, like, like there's multiple markets. We've been, for a while, we've been modeling OpenAI's business as like they have a consumer product that they're going to try and drive to essentially free with ads. And you will have a ton of features and they will try and deliver you a ton of value. So Sora, the generations are free. You can't pay for anything more in the app.

• 18:10Speaker 02

  Also, the apps they launched today, those are very much like consumer.

• 18:13John Coogan?

  Exactly. And but but they'll take a cut on the backend. And so they will monetize very heavily on the consumer side. Uh, and then you also have like your hyperscaler cloud platform, your API business that is pure consumption based, selling the API, selling the LLM. Uh, but I'm, but I'm wondering if we will, if we will see the development of like something in the middle, something prosumer, something consumption based pop up. Uh, now there is.

• 18:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the, to be clear, it's this company N8N, which we haven't really followed closely.

• 18:43John Coogan?

  We should have the founder on.

• 18:44Jordi Hays?

  But they have seen a ton of growth. They've seen this organic kind of, um, uh, always a good sign when people are selling kind of like courses around how to build a business based around your software product, right? This was Shopify in the early days. And so a lot of the posts this morning are saying OpenAI just killed.

• 19:05John Coogan?

  N8N.

• 19:06Jordi Hays?

  Uh, how do you say this actually, Tyler?

• 19:08John Coogan?

  Is it Nathan?

• 19:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't know. I usually I just, when I read it, I just think N8N.

• 19:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, so, um, may have, uh, just, uh, proven to, proven myself to be a boomer if I'm mispronouncing it, but N8, N8N, uh, we'll see. I don't, I don't think these, my framework for OpenAI now is that I just view them as a large tech company. And so every VC and every founder should be asking like, what if OpenAI does this?

• 19:34John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 19:35Jordi Hays?

  And even if they do decide to do it, it doesn't mean that you're cooked.

• 19:38John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 19:39Jordi Hays?

  Because. For a lot of reasons. How many, how many products have big, you know, how many products has Google launched or Meta launched that looked like they were a credible threat to various businesses and then ultimately didn't really go anywhere? So I'm, I'm sure that OpenAI is taking agent builders seriously. I'm not sure that it'll be a real threat to Zapier or NADN or anyone else.

• 20:05John Coogan?

  Yeah, there's a great internal tech email from 2010 explaining what competition between Facebook and Google looked like at the time. So the abridged history of Google and Facebook sometime in the summer of 2007. So this is just like two years after Facebook launched. Larry Page stopped talking to Mark Zuckerberg. This was following an eight-month period in which Facebook launched News Feed, opened registration to everyone and launched Platform where you could log in with Facebook across the web. So almost instantly, Facebook was competing with Google for talent, for developer mindshare, and for tech blog cred, kind of like with the precursor Teapot, I suppose. They began to worry about their

• 20:50John Coogan?

  ability to enter new markets with us in the game, with Facebook in the game, and about core investments that weren't doing well and that Facebook was positioned to touch. Checkout, Local, Orkut, which is their social network, which is now defunct, I believe. They worried about entrenched products that-

• 21:09Jordi Hays?

  What was it called?

• 21:09John Coogan?

  Orkut, O-R-K-U-T, which I think was a Brazilian company that they acquired-

• 21:14Jordi Hays?

  I liked how you pronounced it the first time.

• 21:15John Coogan?

  Which I believe it's pronounced Orkut or something like that. I like that. Put a little flair on it.

• 21:18Jordi Hays?

  We look over at Tyler, like he's supposed to be some pronunciation expert at 19.

• 21:24John Coogan?

  But yeah, Google was worried about Meta challenging them in entrenched products that Facebook might one day launch. Calendar, Picassa, which was their Photos product, YouTube, Blogger, Reader, News, and about the comScore data telling them that the social networks are bigger than email story. Facebook had the world's people while Google only had their cookies. So we were better positioned even to own search and ads one day. Oh my. So far, we haven't seen the real competition. And so- What's interesting is that it was not a total steamroll by the Meta Facebook team. It was also not a total steamroll by Google.

• 22:06John Coogan?

  Like, Google, I would say, did very well in Calendar. They, Facebook has not

• 22:13Jordi Hays?

  They really became big Calendar.

• 22:15John Coogan?

  They did. YouTube did very well. Reader, of course, they canned. Blogger went away. News is still there in search, but I think most people get their news from social networks these days. Picassa, I was talking to Brandon about this, Photos has kind of, most people have moved over to just Instagram. Their Instagram page is their main photo album. People do organize photos, but a lot of people do that in Apple. And so, there's been a bunch of places where Facebook won. There's been other places where Google was able to hold on. And so, I would imagine that the same thing happens where OpenAI challenges the legacy tech companies across the board. And, and they win some of those, but not all of them.

• 22:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. My question is, does releasing Sora 2 via API hurt the chances that Sora as a standalone app actually becomes a social network and a consumption platform? Because the model's clearly great. It does a really good job at making video look like it was shot on a cellphone, right? VO3, very cinematic.

• 23:18John Coogan?

  Saw this.

• 23:19Jordi Hays?

  It's, looks like a Hollywood blockbuster.

• 23:22John Coogan?

  It looks like daytime TV, but yes.

• 23:24Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, sure, sure. But it looks like it was shot by legacy Hollywood.

• 23:28John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 23:29Jordi Hays?

  And Sora 2 looks like, you know, you're hanging out at the office and you're shooting a video, right? Something like that. And so, that model, which until today, they had exclusive access to, can now be leveraged by any video creation platform, and there's tons of them. So whether you were Adobe, right? You could get access to Sora 2, or some entry-level startup, right? And so, what that means is there's just going to be a lot more of this kind of content being created all around the internet, not in Sora the app. And in my view, that signals to me that they don't really feel like they have a, a, a strong opportunity to make Sora a place where, a, a place where content is consumed.

• 24:14Jordi Hays?

  I see them seeing this as a creative tool. Because if you were like, hey, there's a

• 24:21Jordi Hays?

  Thirty percent chance we're gonna make a new like video massive video consumption platform. Wouldn't you want to give it every possible chance to be successful? You wouldn't want to let all your enemies have access to this tool, right? You'd give yourself every possible edge? I think I think you would.

• 24:39John Coogan?

  I agree with a lot of that rebuttal, but first I'm going to tell you about cognition. They're the makers of Devon. Devon is the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So, yes, Ben Thompson has always had this good take that why does OpenAI have an API at all? You don't want your GPUs on fire when you have the best consumer AI app. Just make sure that ChatGPT never goes down, that the maximum amount of GPUs are on ChatGPT. So everyone has the greatest experience there and they never even think to try another consumer chat app and just let other companies compete in the API space. You're kind of arguing the same idea for Sora. What's also interesting is that I noticed that when I was using Sora, I would generate stuff, but I wouldn't post it.

• 25:25John Coogan?

  I felt like I wanted to see it and then I was like, ah, it's not quite right. Or I don't feel comfortable sharing that or maybe I'll download it or screen record it or something. Whereas I feel like in the early days of Instagram, people would definitely go to Instagram as like, I want to, I want to filter my photos. I want to make my photos look better. And then they, but they would always post. And I bet you that the creation to post ratio is way lower with Sora than it was in the early days of Instagram. I feel like if people went into Instagram and they were like, I want to add, you know, a high contrast X Pro two filter, like 99% of the time, they would just click like, yep, share it and then I'll download it and put it on Twitter as well or something. But they would almost always share it.

• 26:07John Coogan?

  And so Instagram was incredibly valuable for bootstrapping that network because everything was shared to the network by default. And I feel like on Sora, people are much more hesitant to actually click, okay, yeah, let's post. I don't know. What do you think?

• 26:20Jordi Hays?

  I don't know. I think by the time Instagram actually became a place that a lot of your friends were, people were less like, people became more. Serious about, oh, should I post this? I don't know if my, I don't know if my followers will like this. I'm not going to post it.

• 26:34John Coogan?

  But would they do that with, um, but would they filter it and then?

• 26:39Jordi Hays?

  Possibly.

• 26:40John Coogan?

  And then just save it and share it somewhere else? I, I never experienced that personally. It was like, if I'm going in there, maybe I don't post it at all, but I'm not just using it as like a creation tool for something else.

• 26:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:52John Coogan?

  Like, there were, there were apps, there was a company called Aviary that was an API for photo filtering that would go into other apps. They eventually sold to Adobe, I believe. Um, and there were a few different, yeah, we talked to, we talked to somebody about this. The, the, there were like those API level companies that offered the same functionality as, as Instagram, but didn't bootstrap the social network on the back of it. And Hypstomatic was another one where it had the, it had technically, I think, better photo filtering, like people liked the look of the photos more, but Hypstomatic, Aviary, these companies didn't bootstrap a social network on the back.

• 27:33John Coogan?

  And so they wound up being valued like, you know, medium sized SaaS companies as opposed to social networks. And they've never really compounded, compounded, compounded. So I, I agree that it's a little odd to not force everything that's generated in Sora to just automatically be shared on Sora, on the app. Because it feels like if you can just continually have every Sora generation in the feed, you can rank those, like, you can have a very powerful.

• 28:01Jordi Hays?

  Have a catalog of content that people like, and it also feeds your, it feeds, uh, it, it's going to continuously help you make the model better.

• 28:11John Coogan?

  Yeah. I also wonder if they'd open it up to, uh, human generated content.

• 28:17John Coogan?

  Like, why not?

• 28:18Jordi Hays?

  I don't think that OpenAI needs another front in the war. Right? It's hard enough competing. It's hard enough competing with Google, right? You clearly to compete with Google.

• 28:28John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 28:28Jordi Hays?

  You have to do a number of just absolutely heinous deals, right? You gotta be doing deals with Broadcom. You gotta be doing deals with Oracle. You gotta be doing deals with AMD. You gotta just be doing these deals that are pretty unprecedented, at least for the, for the, in the, in the modern era. So they don't need to open a new front, in my view.

• 28:50John Coogan?

  I do feel like the, it's just a new angle on the creativity. If you could have Sora, but with like a cap cut style or edit style video editing that goes into it. So you could have, like, if you just want to maximize for like the maximum amount of creativity, being able to inject an actual screen recording of a movie clip and then a Sora clip. And then, and then your actual video that you recorded and then bring in some more Sora. Like editing all that together, it's just gonna be better content.

• 29:23Jordi Hays?

  We need to talk about how T Dating Advice is still top five.

• 29:27John Coogan?

  No way.

• 29:27Jordi Hays?

  Free app on the app.

• 29:28John Coogan?

  Even after the hack, it's still ripping.

• 29:31Jordi Hays?

  It's above TikTok. It's above Google. It's above X. It's above WhatsApp.

• 29:36John Coogan?

  I thought Sora.

• 29:37Jordi Hays?

  It's above Instagram. And obviously again.

• 29:39John Coogan?

  I thought Sora and ChatGPT were number one and number two.

• 29:41Jordi Hays?

  It only counts first time downloads, but yeah, Sora is number one. But I'm just saying, if you look at the top five, it's Sora, ChatGPT, Gemini, Threads.

• 29:50John Coogan?

  And then T?

• 29:51Jordi Hays?

  Shout out to Connor Hayes for getting Threads back in the top five.

• 29:55John Coogan?

  We love it. We love it. Also, shout out to Dylan Field over at Figma doing a deal with OpenAI, getting the shout out in Dev Day. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free. Tyler, do you understand this, this, this post from Leo? Who says, "New image model is just GPT Image 1 Mini LMAO. It's so over." On the API docs? What is going on here?

• 30:21Speaker 02

  So I think it was like one of those cases where someone just found like the link to the PNG. That's like hosted on the site and like it's not released yet.

• 30:27John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 30:28Speaker 02

  So there's like no information about this at all. They didn't talk about it at Dev Day, I'm for sure. So.

• 30:33John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is kind of.

• 30:35John Coogan?

  I don't really know that people are being comped to this. Like, it feels like most of the excitement about the about the agent mode or agent builder is like, images would be like a small piece of that. Because yes, every once in a while in an agentic workflow, you'd want to generate an image. But I do wonder how open it will be. Like, would it be possible within the agent builder to vend in a different LLM? Like, are they going to be model agnostic at some point? Like, from a true model builder, you would, you might want to be able to like, call Claude code over here and then, and then use, you know, some other image generator. You want to get a mid-journey image over here. You want to go over there. Pull, pull different things together.

• 31:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I feel like you kind of have to, because otherwise it's like, then as a consumer, I'm just going to go use N8N.

• 31:21John Coogan?

  Something that's on top of all of them.

• 31:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, because if I'm just being limited, then why would I use it? So.

• 31:26John Coogan?

  Yeah. Well, How You're Old Harry is not happy with all the deals that are happening. He posted on September 22nd, explaining the Nvidia and OpenAI deal to our analysts. And it's the screen cap from, what is that detective movie? Detective HBO? True Detective. True Detective. And he's getting, getting hammered. And now he says, "I'm entering my Michael Burry era. These deal structures are dot com bubble things. Keep dancing now, but come on, guys. Be real about what's going to happen here." There's a lot of people that are not happy with how crazy these deals are. Sven Henrick says-

• 32:08Jordi Hays?

  Since nobody is saying it, Sven will. He says, "We're witnessing the largest and most concentrated instant market cap expansions in history with no proven future revenue cost earnings model to back up the investments or the valuations. The market is running on an incredible amount of blind faith." Let's give it up for Blind Faith.

• 32:28John Coogan?

  There's not enough of that.

• 32:28Jordi Hays?

  And how it ends, TBD. One certainty, though, when it eventually does blow up, everyone will be asking the Fed to come to the rescue again.

• 32:38Jordi Hays?

  The only thing I would push back on is like, a lot of, a lot of people, it's- It's uh, it's contrarian.

• 32:46John Coogan?

  Nobody is saying it. Everyone's saying it.

• 32:48Jordi Hays?

  It's contrarian actually at this point to say like, no, this is good and healthy and natural.

• 32:53John Coogan?

  No, no, no. Like, the, the, the people that are still super AGI-pilled, stu- just like, super beating the drum of like, the value is there, look at the revenue growth, all this stuff is real, it's, it merits the build-out because we're gonna see 10x gains again and again and again.

• 33:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, let's pull up this video of, um, let's pull up, who's the, at the X Games, Stephen Hawking at the X Games? Should we pull that up?

• 33:17John Coogan?

  Can we pull up Stephen Hawking at the X Game? Oh, you guys haven't pulled up already, thank you.

• 33:21Jordi Hays?

  If you watch this video and, and then say to me, I don't think Sam Trillion, Sam.

• 33:26John Coogan?

  Sam Trillions.

• 33:29Jordi Hays?

  I don't think Sam Altman should get another trillion, I don't know what to tell you.

• 33:33John Coogan?

  This is so sick.

• 33:34Jordi Hays?

  Wow.

• 33:35John Coogan?

  That's a perfect.

• 33:36Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 33:37John Coogan?

  Oh no! The physics. Tyler over there, this is gonna be critical to building humanoid robotics. This is a physics simulator, this is a world model.

• 33:49John Coogan?

  It like, the physics don't make sense there. Like, that's not how that would happen.

• 33:53Jordi Hays?

  The next iteration, I swear, Sora 3, it's gonna, yeah, just scale up a little bit more, bro, please.

• 33:58John Coogan?

  Oh yeah, on Friday, we posted, uh, uh, yeah, we posted.

• 34:02Jordi Hays?

  Another five trillion, please.

• 34:03John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, we posted an example of a, a video that we shot versus, and then I had Tyler try and recreate it with Sora and the other video models, and, uh, and Tyler kept texting me like, dude, just one more prompt, like, I, I, I'm so close, I can get it there. And he was like, no, I'm very close.

• 34:18Jordi Hays?

  The hand, the hand.

• 34:19John Coogan?

  The hands were very creepy. Your, your naked foot snuck in somehow.

• 34:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I don't know what the training game was.

• 34:26John Coogan?

  It was odd. Ugh. Yeah, lots of weird stuff. Um, it, it, it seems like it's very good for, like, again, we're in that, like, style transfer, it works well when it's like, there's a ton of footage of police body cams, and then there's a ton of footage of SpongeBob, and you put SpongeBob in the police body cam, and it knows how to mash those two up. But if you come to it with just some completely new idea that it doesn't have a lot of training data on, you're going to be fighting the prompt for a long, long time. Now, those mashups are valuable, like they get views, people find them enjoyable, and there are some that are very funny. Uh, but it is, it is a challenge to create anything that's like kind of novel or new, but you know, there's still a lot of room.

• 35:08Jordi Hays?

  Sachi Mishal says this OpenAI AMD deal feels like a jump the shark moment. The deal structure is just so stupidly unbelievable. Well, I'll tell you something believable. If I was walking around a farmer's market, John, and I walk by a stand and I think, ah, I don't really like what this guy's got. I don't really want it, but then I think to myself, what could, what could I do in this moment to make purchasing some of these vegetables interesting to me? And so I go to the farmer and I say, how about you give me 30% of your business? And I'll buy some of your vegetables.

• 35:48Jordi Hays?

  And I actually should get more equity value in your business than I need to pay for the vegetables.

• 35:55John Coogan?

  What did, what did I actually say?

• 35:57Jordi Hays?

  That seems like a deal that might get done. And to me, that feels a little bit like what we're seeing here today with, uh, OpenAI and AMD.

• 36:07John Coogan?

  Yeah. What did, what did I actually say? Oh, I, here, you, you, you were saying like, like, did I call the, did I call these like circular deals, um, efficient, more efficient or something like that? I said, uh, I said, lots of people are throwing up red flags about these. This was on, uh, September 29th, uh, or 23rd. Um, high growth companies have been paying for things with equity, in this case, chips forever, most commonly with talent. Uh, but occasionally with other counterparties. Uh, the open question is that couldn't this deal be more arms length pretty easily? Nvidia's biggest shareholders are Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity and State Street. There's a world where Nvidia takes the cash it has on hand, pays a dividend,

• 36:50John Coogan?

  and then those investors take their money and invest in OpenAI. That would be the natural flow of capital in. Normal times, but Nvidia thinks there are benefits to inking a longer term partnership. OpenAI looks highly likely to join the ranks of the hyperscalers and Microsoft, Amazon and Google are all working on AI chips that could cut Nvidia out of the equation long term. So Nvidia gets a fantastic long-term partner with OpenAI, who will be committed to buying an accelerated schedule of AI accelerator purchases. And OpenAI gets a deep partnership with arguably the best GPU design team in history. And so it's interesting that like, and the Nvidia deal, the read on the Nvidia deal was like, oh, this is Nvidia finding like its true long-term dance partner.

• 37:34John Coogan?

  Where in a world where Google is going TPU, Microsoft is going to do their own thing, Amazon's doing their own thing in chips, cutting out Nvidia. There's like some real risks to Nvidia long-term potentially. And so Nvidia is like locking up a partnership with OpenAI, but then OpenAI is going around and being like, but we're also going to do.

• 37:51Jordi Hays?

  I think one thing that everyone's learning about Sam is you never really lock down Sam, right? You had, you had, obviously Satya and Sam were dancing. They're still dancing, you know, through the existing partnership that they have, but certainly Sam is willing to go find the incremental partner. And it's interesting that the AMD and Nvidia deals just happen so closely together.

• 38:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 38:18Jordi Hays?

  And Nvidia felt crazy, AMD feels crazier just because again, it's not like these are Sam's first picks for GPUs, right?

• 38:31John Coogan?

  Yep. Well, you can't lock down Sam, but you can lock down your compliance with Vanta, automate compliance, manage risk and through trust continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation.

• 38:45Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 38:45John Coogan?

  We should read through the actual deal of the OpenAI AMD reporting in the.

• 38:52Jordi Hays?

  Are you saying we should get into the facts?

• 38:53John Coogan?

  We should get into the facts. The five-year agreement, it will challenge Nvidia's market dominance as OpenAI plans deployment of AMD's new MI450 chips. And the announcement from Sam mentioned Nvidia more than AMD, which some people are reading into, like maybe you want to keep Nvidia happy. The big question for me is, is there an OpenAI Intel deal coming at some point? Because Intel's been looking for a buyer. Been looking for a reason to spin up the new fab in America.

• 39:22Jordi Hays?

  Sam needs to figure out some way. You know, the deal that I could imagine is Trump makes an investment in OpenAI. OpenAI then has to spend off of Uncle Sam's balance sheet. OpenAI then has to spend some amount of that on with Intel.

• 39:41John Coogan?

  Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised.

• 39:42Jordi Hays?

  And Sam figures out a way to get some warrants in Intel, too.

• 39:47John Coogan?

  I mean, there's certainly a lot of energy around like, like there are, like, the United States government is pushing Intel. There's a desire to reshore manufacturing, reshore chip manufacturing. And if you can be part of that story, you should be a beneficiary. You should win points, score points in Washington. And so doing something there, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it in the next couple of weeks. It just feels like Sam is really knocking down partnerships with every major counterparty. And so why not Intel as well? Well, the Wall Street Journal has the story. OpenAI and chip designer Advanced Micro Devices. They don't name companies like that anymore.

• 40:25Jordi Hays?

  You don't know how to.

• 40:25John Coogan?

  AMD announced a multi-billion dollar partnership to collaborate on AI data centers that will run on AMD processors, one of the most direct challenges yet to industry leader Nvidia. Under the terms of the deal, OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD chips.

• 40:40Jordi Hays?

  It is, it is cool that we're now just referring to GPU orders based on their energy demands.

• 40:47John Coogan?

  It's pretty sick. Starting with the MI450 chip next year, the chat GPT maker will buy the chips either directly or through its cloud computing partners. So it could go through Oracle. That's not that crazy.

• 41:00Jordi Hays?

  Well, it is, it is, it is if it's not actually OpenAI putting up. Does this mean that OpenAI doesn't have to, if one of their, they can be like.

• 41:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, CapEx might not live on their balance sheet.

• 41:11Jordi Hays?

  Exactly.

• 41:11John Coogan?

  Because they might go to a NeoCloud or they might go to Oracle and they might say, you own the data center and we will set up a contract to lease against that because we want to model this business as OpEx because we are. We are a software company on top of the hardware.

• 41:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 41:26John Coogan?

  It's not the craziest thing. It doesn't. I mean, there's plenty of big tech companies, I believe, Netflix, Snapchat, there's a whole bunch that are like built on top of other cloud platforms, but they have such large contracts that Google can say, oh, well, like you're going to be with us for a decade. You're going to be spending hundreds of millions of dollars. We're going to go build a new data center for you and we're going to own that CapEx because we're super huge and liquid. We can afford this. So AMD chief Lisa Su said in an interview on Sunday that the deal will result in tens of billions of dollars in new revenue for the chip company over the next half decade. The two companies didn't disclose the plans overall expected costs, but AMD said it costs tens of billions of dollars per gigawatt of computing capacity. So we're looking at almost a hundred billion dollar deal,

• 42:10John Coogan?

  which is probably why the market cap popped by a commensurate amount. OpenAI will receive warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment. AMD's stock price is also in also has to increase for the warrants to be exercised. The shares opened 33% higher Monday morning. The deal is AMD's biggest win in its quest to disrupt Nvidia's dominance among AI semiconductor companies. AMD processors are widely used for gaming in personal computers and in traditional data center servers, but it hasn't made much of a dent in the fast growing market for the pricier supercomputing chips needed

• 42:53John Coogan?

  by advanced AI systems. Quickly, let me tell you about Graphite, code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams like GitHub ship higher quality software faster.

• 43:02Jordi Hays?

  There are billboards going viral again today.

• 43:04John Coogan?

  It is?

• 43:05Jordi Hays?

  Just the exact same post again. I think this time it was like, I'm in San Francisco. I hate it here.

• 43:10John Coogan?

  Oh, really?

• 43:11Jordi Hays?

  It's like viral again.

• 43:12John Coogan?

  But it's still going viral.

• 43:12Jordi Hays?

  We love it there.

• 43:13John Coogan?

  Well, if you want to run a billboard campaign, get on adquick.com. Out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only adquick combines technology, out of home expertise and data to enable efficiency in this ad buying across the globe.

• 43:25John Coogan?

  Well, AMD plans to use the chips for, or OpenAI plans to use the AMD chips for inference functions or the computations that allow AI applications such as chatbots to respond to user queries. Maybe that's easier for them to deal with. They train on Nvidia, but then inference on AMD. Maybe there's something there. I mean, the models are so stable. There was a new, like, indication or kind of like leak that GPT-5 is still running on the four pre-trained. So, the, there will at some point be a new, like, huge pre-trained. Four, five was supposed to be that. They haven't really done that yet. But there's, there's a world where like, GPT-4, that pre-trained model, I mean, I'm sure they've done other

• 44:09John Coogan?

  things to it, but like, generally that is like mature enough that if you can just go and optimize it and ship it off to different chips, maybe it runs fast. Maybe it's a huge lift to, to get it out of the CUDA ecosystem and over to AMD. But certainly AMD wants to make it happen, and OpenAI wants to make it happen, so.

• 44:27Jordi Hays?

  Maybe Codexx can do it.

• 44:29John Coogan?

  Maybe Codexx can do it. We don't know. I, I think that it's like, it could be, it could be like a hundred million dollar project to like replatform it, but it's totally worth it when you're running inference for 800 million weekly active users. So, I don't know. It's hard to overstate how difficult it's become to get enough computing power, Altman said. We want it super fast, but it takes some time. The two CEOs said the deal will tie their companies together and give them incentives to commit to the AI infrastructure. Boom. It's a win for both of our companies. And I'm glad that OpenAI's incentives are tied to AMD's success and vice versa. He's such a good investment banker. Get him in,

• 45:11John Coogan?

  get him on Wall Street. Nvidia remains the preferred chip supplier among AI companies, but it's also facing competition from almost every corner of the market. Cloud giants such as Google and Amazon design and sell their own chips. OpenAI recently signed a hundred billion dollar deal with Broadcom to build its own in-house chip.

• 45:28Jordi Hays?

  No, 10 billion.

• 45:28John Coogan?

  10 billion. Yeah, 10 billion dollar deal.

• 45:30Jordi Hays?

  Easy to add an extra zero these days, but we gotta.

• 45:35John Coogan?

  Well, if you want to manage your zeros properly, get on julius.ai. What analysis do you want to run? Chat with your data and get expert level insights. It's the AI data analyst that works for you and it's more reliable than me when it comes to getting the numbers right.

• 45:51Jordi Hays?

  And apparently Copilot in Excel. We saw that. We saw that post earlier today.

• 45:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 45:57Jordi Hays?

  Somebody using Copilot in Excel to add a handful of numbers.

• 46:01John Coogan?

  One, two, and three specifically.

• 46:03Jordi Hays?

  And what?

• 46:03John Coogan?

  Tyler, what's one plus two plus three? Sum those numbers.

• 46:07Jordi Hays?

  Hmm, let me think.

• 46:12John Coogan?

  Well, Copilot said 15.

• 46:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. So just try to get that close if you can.

• 46:17John Coogan?

  As long as you're with, as long as.

• 46:19Jordi Hays?

  With numbers, you just got to get close.

• 46:21John Coogan?

  What do you think it is?

• 46:22Jordi Hays?

  I'm going with six.

• 46:23John Coogan?

  Let's go. Nailed it. Human intelligence undefeated.

• 46:27Jordi Hays?

  Underrated, underrated.

• 46:28John Coogan?

  Good morning, Matt. How you doing in the chat? Good to see you. Good day.

• 46:32Jordi Hays?

  Great to see you.

• 46:34John Coogan?

  Um, OpenAI is going to begin with one gigawatt worth of MI450 chips, starting in the second half of next year to run its AI models. That's a lot.

• 46:42Jordi Hays?

  Just put the chips in the bag.

• 46:43John Coogan?

  That's, we are just throwing around gigawatts now. Um, I do, I really want to know how deep this goes.

• 46:50Jordi Hays?

  We got to, we got to ask Doug, he's joining in 10 minutes. Uh, what kind of deals Sam is going to start doing on the energy side?

• 46:58John Coogan?

  I was asking him about that.

• 46:59Jordi Hays?

  Because he has his, uh.

• 47:01John Coogan?

  His nuclear play.

• 47:01Jordi Hays?

  He has a nuclear company, OCLo.

• 47:03John Coogan?

  He also has a new, uh, a, uh, he has a fission company, OCLo, and then he has a fusion company. Uh, what's that one called? It's the.

• 47:12Jordi Hays?

  OCLo is only up like 550% in the past six months.

• 47:17John Coogan?

  Just wait until they ink a hundred billion dollar deal with OpenAI. Like it could happen. I mean, like, it's one of those things where it's like, if, if, if they build that energy, OpenAI would buy it. So it's, it's, it makes sense. These are all just like, uh, sort of like mutual agreements to jump across the threshold together.

• 47:34Jordi Hays?

  Mutual agreement to jump sharks.

• 47:37John Coogan?

  Yeah, to jump sharks. I don't know. I don't know. It's dangerous to be bearish prematurely. Like, you never know how big these things can get. Continue run. We could be stuck in January of 1999 for the next five years for all we know.

• 47:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, you never know.

• 47:56John Coogan?

  In late September, Nvidia announced that it would invest $100 billion in OpenAI over the next decade. Under the terms of the circular arrangement, OpenAI plans to use the cash from Nvidia to buy Nvidia chips and deploy up to 10 gigawatts of computing power in AI data centers. The deal highlighted how the market's seemingly endless enthusiasm for Nvidia's stock is providing a financial backstop for the entire AI market. The Nvidia deal isn't completed. The two companies have signed a letter of intent and have yet to disclose specific terms in a regulatory filing. Wow, what a time to be alive. OpenAI and AMD described Monday's announcement as definitive and plan to immediately file details with security regulators. Sue told investors in a call Monday morning that the deal was a clear validation

• 48:39John Coogan?

  of our technology roadmap that would give AMD tens of billions of dollars of revenue by 2027. When asked about the unique warrant structure, Sue called it pretty intimate.

• 48:49Jordi Hays?

  We're gonna get a lot of revenue.

• 48:51John Coogan?

  I wouldn't say it came lightly.

• 48:52Jordi Hays?

  We just have to give a huge amount of the company away in order to capture that revenue.

• 48:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, what's the headline number here? It's $100 billion, $10 billion to Broadcom, $100 billion to Nvidia, and $300 billion to Oracle.

• 49:06Jordi Hays?

  $20 billion-ish to CoreWeave as well.

• 49:09John Coogan?

  Wait, so Tyler, they're saying 6 billion gigawatts, not billion gigawatts. 6 gigawatts of AMD chips. Can you estimate the dollar value of that? If it's MI 450 equivalents?

• 49:25Speaker 02

  I think on the Invest Like the Best with Don't Tell, he said it's like around $50 billion per gigawatt?

• 49:32John Coogan?

  $50 billion per gigawatt?

• 49:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 49:34John Coogan?

  Wait, so this is like a $400 billion deal?

• 49:36Speaker 02

  I think, wait, that's totally wrong.

• 49:38John Coogan?

  Okay, okay, yeah. I want to know, like, what is the energy use of a single MI 450? And then divide that by 6 gigawatts to get me like, how many chips are they gonna buy? And then what's the price of the chip? So multiply that. That's what I want to know. In the meantime, let me tell you about Fall, the generative media platform for developers. The world's best generative image, video and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune with serverless GPUs and on-demand clusters.

• 50:07Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 50:08John Coogan?

  There's so much in this article.

• 50:09Jordi Hays?

  Should we get into this XAI coverage?

• 50:12John Coogan?

  Uh, yes, sure. Elon Musk gambles billions in Memphis to catch up on AI. I don't know why this is a story. It's mere billions. If we're not in the hundreds of billions, like, what are we doing? This is pennies.

• 50:24Jordi Hays?

  Uh, the Journal has reporting, XAI aims to win tech arms race with Colossus data centers thrown up at lightning speed. City is divided over massive power and water demands. For Elon Musk, ground zero of the AI arms race is 114 acre tract of grass and swamp on the state line of Tennessee and Mississippi. This one, this one sleepy plot of land filled with groves of water rooted Tupelo trees at its western edge is now part of a growing empire Musk is accumulating in the deep south, just a few miles from Elvis Presley's homestead at Graceland.

• 50:58John Coogan?

  Nice.

• 50:58Jordi Hays?

  Labor crews hired by Musk's XAI were excavating power equipment on the site, a defunct energy plant just over the state line in Mississippi, and preparing to build a new plant capable of generating over a gigawatt of electricity, enough to power around 800,000 homes. Engineering permits show that Musk plans to route transmission lines that will connect the new power plant to a million square foot data center that is also under development just north of the border in Tennessee. Memphis is the front line of Musk's costly foray into the AI wars. His AI company, XAI, has already built one massive data center here in the bluff city that it calls the world's largest supercomputer. That facility called Colossus houses over 200,000 Nvidia chips and powers the technology behind the AI chatbot, GROK.

• 51:43Jordi Hays?

  Now Musk is close to finishing the second facility. Which will be even bigger. He calls it Colossus 2. The AI arms race is shaping up as the most expensive corporate battle of the 21st century. Let's give it up for expensive corporate battles. Can I get the horn, Nick, please? With the belief that the first to the finish line will dominate the market, making speed crucial. Money also makes a difference. The more cutting-edge chips companies have, the smarter their models are. But at this stage, it's unclear if or when the enormous investments will pay off. Technology companies that are splashing out to hire AI talent are writing even bigger checks to build the infrastructure needed to power cutting-edge AI models. Morgan Stanley estimates companies will spend over $3 trillion on AI infrastructure through 2028. What do you got, John?

• 52:26John Coogan?

  I have a more recent benchmark for all of the different AI models to let you know where Grok sits relative to the other frontier models. ChatGPT 5 Pro. Viral Bench? Yeah, Viral Bench. Claude, Sonnet 4.5, the latest and greatest. Gemini 2.5 Pro, and of course, Grok Expert Mode. So I will read you. My prompt for all four of these models was, write an X post that gets me over 1,000 likes. My account is at John Coogan. And ChatGPT 5 Pro said, Nvidia isn't a chip company, it's supply chain choreography. The scarce assets now? HBM, advanced packaging, power, and high bandwidth networking.

• 53:09John Coogan?

  If your AI thesis ignores those, you're playing checkers on a Go board. Not bad.

• 53:14Jordi Hays?

  I think you'd get like 40 likes on that.

• 53:19John Coogan?

  Okay. Claude Sonnet 4.5 says, everyone's focused on which AI lab will win AGI. The real question, who wins the infrastructure layer? Nvidia is printing money now, but the company that figures out inference at scale will be worth more than all the model companies combined. Which is hilarious.

• 53:39Jordi Hays?

  It's like a hot take.

• 53:41John Coogan?

  It's kind of a hot take that's anti-anthropic, I suppose. Who knows? Maybe they're working on this. Gemini 2.5 Pro says, the biggest hurdle isn't starting. It's the biggest hurdle to starting isn't the idea. It's not the capital, it's not the competition. It's the unshakable fear of looking stupid for the first six months. So that's what Gemini 2.5 Pro thinks is a banger. And then we have Grok expert. And this, remember, this model was trained on X data. It should know what works. It knows it has the entire corpus of every tweet, every post on X. And here's what it said would go viral and get over a thousand likes. It says, this is from my account, at John Coogan.

• 54:24John Coogan?

  October hits and suddenly I'm craving pumpkin everything. Binge watching horror movies and planning the ultimate costume. Who's with me on turning this month into pure spooky magic? Drop your fave Halloween ideas below. Hashtag spooky season. Hashtag Halloween 2025. Hashtag October vibes with three emojis.

• 54:48John Coogan?

  And I think we know who wins. Like Grok is clearly funny.

• 54:51Jordi Hays?

  Genuinely hilarious. I think it knows. I think it knows.

• 54:54John Coogan?

  It's self-aware.

• 54:56Jordi Hays?

  It's totally self-aware. It knows that this is, it knows that it might not be able to create the perfect zinger. But it knows it can do such a throwback that we will find it absolutely hilarious. That feels like something like, like John Cena would post in like 2011.

• 55:14John Coogan?

  Totally, totally. And so if I had to post one of those, I would definitely go with the Grok post because it's hilarious.

• 55:20Jordi Hays?

  Post it, post it.

• 55:21John Coogan?

  And people would be laughing.

• 55:21Jordi Hays?

  You never posted the, the.

• 55:23John Coogan?

  I didn't post the other one about Lewis.

• 55:24Speaker 02

  You should just post all four and then see which, like actually do the benchmark.

• 55:27John Coogan?

  I should, I should. I, I will, maybe I'll, maybe I'll prompt it again and then, and then, and then do it again. But the pure spooky magic goes, goes pretty hard. I like it. I think it's worth 10 trillion in capex to get these bangers.

• 55:41Jordi Hays?

  All right, well, I want to ask Doug about what XAI has to do to actually get back in the game.

• 55:48John Coogan?

  I want to ask him what AI is. What is this?

• 55:51Jordi Hays?

  Well, this, this Colossus and Colossus 2 are incredible feats of engineering.

• 55:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 55:56Jordi Hays?

  Yet the.

• 55:57John Coogan?

  And what's the asset value? I, I do wonder, like, it seems like if, if they don't get product market fit on the consumer layer, is there a world where Colossus 2 is just an incredibly valuable asset that can be sold to a different firm or something? Anyway, we have our next guest, our first guest, Doug Lofland, in the Restream waiting room. Let's bring him into the TBT and Ultra Dome. Doug, how are you doing? Good to see you.

• 56:20Doug O'Laughlin?

  Good to see you too, guys. How are y'all doing?

• 56:22John Coogan?

  Doing fantastic.

• 56:23Jordi Hays?

  Great to see you.

• 56:24John Coogan?

  Uh, what a day. What's, uh, what have your immediate reactions been to the, uh, to the AMD news? Was this on your bingo card for this year?

• 56:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Did you see the person that bought like six million of AMD calls like on Friday?

• 56:36John Coogan?

  Whoa. Was that you?

• 56:38Jordi Hays?

  Uh, hopefully not.

• 56:40Doug O'Laughlin?

  I wish. I wish. That's not me. I would be in super big trouble. So that's definitely not. So I, I, I'm actually going to talk more than just AMD specifically. The thing I think is really funny is that like, look at all the announcements, man. I have a very pet theory. It's kind of, it's kind of a lame theory if you think about it. But I think OpenAI is just trying to have everyone involved, like Nvidia, AMD, SK Hynix, the entire memory chain, all the hyperscalers and effectively like, you know, it's everyone's problem now. Everyone is all vested in interest in, uh, in essentially OpenAI.

• 57:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. He's making himself too big to fail.

• 57:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  Exactly. That's the right way.

• 57:17Jordi Hays?

  There's, there's a world in the future where OpenAI needs effectively a bridge round and he can go to a bunch of different people with big balance sheets and say like, if you guys don't pony up, like we're all going down.

• 57:29Doug O'Laughlin?

  Exactly. That's the plan, man. Essentially, have you ever heard this phrase like, uh, it's like if you owe the bank a hundred bucks, that's your problem. But if you owe the bank a billion bucks, it's the bank's problem.

• 57:39John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 57:40Doug O'Laughlin?

  That's, that's essentially what's going down, I think. Um, so we're seeing like partnerships everywhere. It's kind of, it's kind of a crazy, um, it's kind of a crazy time.

• 57:48John Coogan?

  Yeah. Uh, what, what's your take on people, uh, like overfitting to, uh, the dot com boom and the world calm story? Do you think that's like overwrought at this point or are there actually good analogies now that we're in like an infrastructure boom? It's not just valuations because we've had bubbles in like software, private markets, venture capital before. And those seem to have worked their way through so easily because it's just, oh, some fund that needs to like wind this investment down over a 10 year life cycle. And it's such a small part of the economy, even though the numbers feel big.

• 58:29Jordi Hays?

  There wasn't a lot of debt.

• 58:30John Coogan?

  Yeah. Like, like clubhouse was like $600 million, which is just like nothing compared to the global, who cares?

• 58:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And there, there was, uh, there was a post that went super viral. It was a screenshot that was tracking.

• 58:44Jordi Hays?

  Like the NASDAQ in, in, in the dot com era to the NASDAQ today and it like lined up absolutely perfectly. And then it turns out it was just completely fake news. Like we tried to recreate it a bunch of different ways. There's some, somebody like basically committed a chart crime.

• 59:00John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:00Jordi Hays?

  And it went super viral and everybody's like, wow, it looks exactly, it tracks exactly.

• 59:05Doug O'Laughlin?

  You can't do that, man. It never works. Let's put it this way. It never works. Um, I have a post. I just, uh, I, I, okay. One, I wrote about the 2000 Silicon bubble.

• 59:13John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 59:13Doug O'Laughlin?

  And two, I just wrote something that was mostly behind a paywall, but like you could just look at the cover image and it's just like, you are here. It's like the first interest rate cut was in 1998 in September. And I think that's, that's probably our best analog. Like I think that that's probably the best one to one analog, which means it gets a lot crazier from here.

• 59:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:31Doug O'Laughlin?

  That's my belief at least. So if we look back to 2000, all the analogies and eras back then, I think the one that is kind of scaring and worrying is like the, the vendor financing, like,

• 59:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:41Doug O'Laughlin?

  that's a lot of capital for, for your vendor to be putting up and that kind of, that's a little scary. Like I, I think it's getting a little circular, but like it's not, it's, it's definitely not tech bubble crazy, because the valuation would have to be a 2X from here. That's kind of the thing that's like a, a little different. And I think the other thing that's also kind of interesting is like, last time you could argue the entire tech bubble was kind of very focused and concentrated on the, like a very small amount of unprofitable companies that really didn't impact the economy when they all went bankrupt.

• 1:00:10John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:00:10Doug O'Laughlin?

  The difference is today, who's the primary participants? It's the seven largest companies in the entire world. So that's, that's kind of the, the thing, the push and take here that I think is really interesting. And now given what we publicly heard with the CapEx announcements, it's going to be a lot of capital to get from here to there. And I think, um, I think it's going to be interesting, man. But honestly, if you look at everyone's balance sheet, no one's levered. That's the thing that I think is really interesting.

• 1:00:34John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:34Doug O'Laughlin?

  No one is levered at all. And like, that's the, that's the next leg.

• 1:00:38John Coogan?

  Yep. That's the next leg.

• 1:00:39Jordi Hays?

  Uh, I was giving a, a sort of a hypothetical example around the AMD deal to John. Uh, and tell me if this is just stupid or, or too simple, but I'm walking around a farmer's market. I see a stand, a farmer selling some vegetables. I'm not that interested in the vegetables, but then I think, what would make me interested in this situation? Well, And then I say to the farmer, how about you give me 30% of your company and then I'll buy some vegetables? Is that at all track with the, the, the, uh, this deal?

• 1:01:14Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think it's

• 1:01:15Jordi Hays?

  Suddenly I'm interested. If I, if I, if I can get 10% of your company, I'm interested in being a customer.

• 1:01:21Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think it's also, also I want to, I want to highlight something that's really interesting.

• 1:01:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:25Doug O'Laughlin?

  Is look at the different deals between AMD and Nvidia. Nvidia, you essentially have to, um, you know, they're like, okay, well, uh, please do an investment in us so we can keep buying your chips.

• 1:01:36Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:01:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  Uh, and then the vice versa, AMD is like, no, no, you must invest in us. So please buy our chips.

• 1:01:41Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:41Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like that's the discount and the premium. If you think about it, right? Like Nvidia, you get the premium because it's like, it's a better chip, higher gross margin. They're like, you're getting so much of our money, you might as well just be an investor.

• 1:01:51Jordi Hays?

  Sure.

• 1:01:51Doug O'Laughlin?

  And then on AMD's side, it's like, dude, you, you, you gotta, we don't want to, we don't want this. So like, like give us something in return.

• 1:01:59John Coogan?

  Can you take me through? Yeah. Can you take me through kind of the view on, on AMD generally over the past year? I know that semi analysis was pretty crucial. George Hots was talking about some, uh, some like bugs that were in, uh, the actual like, just trying to run large models on AMD chips was not going well. Uh, your team was pretty integral in that. It seems like they're moving pretty aggressively to try and catch up. Uh, is, is that, is that gated by money? Like what's the, what's the recent history of AMD in terms of like getting back in the game materially?

• 1:02:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, so I do think they're much more competitive than they have been in a long time. Our team's definitely been working. Uh, watch for some stuff from semi analysis soon. TM, I can't say anything more.

• 1:02:46John Coogan?

  Go subscribe.

• 1:02:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  Uh, yeah, but we're definitely, we're definitely continuing to do some work in the space. I, I think, um, look on the smaller models, it just, it, on the imprint side, it seems like there's not a lot of differentiation, but on the bigger, extremely large world size there is. So GB 200 still law of the land, but the Helios 450 rack, which is going to be this next generation, we're a lot more excited about, mostly because they get the ginormous discount of the equity. Um, it's just kind of an insane thing what they've done, man. Like it's such a big, it's such a big amount of the, the equity possibly on those penny warrants. Like, I mean, it's kind of crazy. It's like, hey, uh, you know, you buy $40 billion dollars a product, you have $20 billion product, uh, $20 billion investment for free. Like it's kind of this crazy, like buy one, get one deal. So I mean, I think that that's some.

• 1:03:32Doug O'Laughlin?

  I think I think they have a chance.

• 1:03:34Jordi Hays?

  And and the other

• 1:03:35Doug O'Laughlin?

  kind of a fight.

• 1:03:36Jordi Hays?

  The other thing that that was interesting is it feels like OpenAI can have various partners buy AMD, buy AMD chips, but then OpenAI gets to like get to count that towards purchases themselves.

• 1:03:50John Coogan?

  In the Wall Street Journal article, they made it look like if Oracle buys a bunch of AMD chips for a data center that OpenAI is like leasing on top of. OpenAI gets to exercise the warrants and those count towards AMD purchases, basically, even if it's not on or on on OpenAI's balance sheet.

• 1:04:06Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, pretty much. I think the way to think about it is it's an OpenAI infrastructure bet. Everyone who is in the OpenAI sphere, it counts. And they're just trying to get the most money, the most power, the most pull into it so that essentially, you know, they're kind of creating gravity. Everything comes to them. Honestly, this is a really good analogy. In 2020, Nvidia bought like 5X more capacity than everyone else in at TSMC. And so there was no room for anyone to compete. Kind of the same thing. They're taking all the oxygen out of the room for anyone else that isn't named OpenAI.

• 1:04:35John Coogan?

  What do you think about this? I I feel like I heard this on transistor radio recently that GPT-5 is still potentially running kind of like GPT-4 class model under the hood, doing a bunch of test time inference on top of it to get you a better reasoning model. But like the core architecture actually hasn't shifted that much. We're not we're so. Does that make it easier to port that model to AMD? Like, what is the actual barrier? We've heard about the Cuda mote, but is it something where like you can underwrite $100 million of new kernel writing to run on AMD,

• 1:05:15John Coogan?

  even though it's a huge hassle, but it's because you're still amortizing that original training run that you did on Nvidia to inference it on AMD going forward with this new deal. Like, is there something where the the pre-train is stabilizing to the point where porting to a new architecture is more justifiable?

• 1:05:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  I I think that that feels like a stretch, honestly.

• 1:05:39John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:05:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  I wouldn't I wouldn't know one to one on this one. Like, you know, if this was a world with no reasoning, then I would say, yes, definitely. Yes, right. Um, but I think reasoning really does change the game and how you or how you orchestrate these larger and larger context size windows and then multi nodes. Cause that's a really hard game, too. It's like multi node reasoning or multi node inference is very, very challenging. And so that's, I don't think you get a perfect one to one, but like, let's also be clear. AMD is caught up quite a bit in the last year.

• 1:06:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:06Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like, it's a big difference and like, that's, I I think it's enough to maybe take a bet. And like, you gotta also think about the bigger context here. You know, we're talking like, what? Twenty billion dollars of revenue, mostly twenty twenty seven story. It's kind of peanuts compared to the numbers that we're actually talking about from everyone else. They're still fourth place. Let's be clear, like, this is, this is commitment and I think you can see maybe a little bit momentum and inertia, but they're still in fourth place.

• 1:06:31John Coogan?

  For fourth place, uh, with Nvidia, TPU and Tranium above them?

• 1:06:37Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, even training.

• 1:06:38John Coogan?

  Even training is above them. Interesting. How are people thinking about actually valuing OpenAI at this point? It feels like you have all these like circular, if you're, I was trying to build a DCF for OpenAI to underwrite, you know, investment at five hundred billion. It's like, okay, well, now I own Pars of AMD, so I need to build a full DCF of that. But AMD is linked to OpenAI and I have all these like circular transactions.

• 1:07:00Doug O'Laughlin?

  Rest.

• 1:07:00John Coogan?

  Are are are investors like grappling with this or is it all just like vibe based investing? What you've seen?

• 1:07:06Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, I think it's, I think it's a little bit of vibe based investing. I think the the real play here is TAM is big. It's really, really big and it's gonna be a lot bigger. I think the other thing that's really interesting is some of the agentic purchasing can really unlock very, very, very large parts of the economy that previously you could argue they had nothing in.

• 1:07:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:23Doug O'Laughlin?

  Right? If you're talking about like, you know, the the partners they had available today, for example, uh, booking.com, trip advisor, you know, we can be talking about, you know, and this is like some, some twenty twenty one math, right? But like one percent of all travel.

• 1:07:38John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  One percent of all groceries, one percent of everything. And you're like, that's a big number. That's a really big number.

• 1:07:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:48Doug O'Laughlin?

  And so, and you know, that's, that's going to be rep. So I think that that's the, that's literally the plan. I mean, they're trying to become the super app and that means that they're going to be integrated with everything. And you saw on the partnerships they had, they try to integrate as much as, as possible with every, every player of the stack. And so I think this agentic purchase push is going to, you know, if we start to see revenue from it soon, which I think they're, they're definitely shooting for. We'll, we'll kind of open up the TAM story and start to monetize the free users because there's really only like a hundred million paid users. It's not that much, but there's hundreds of millions of free users. And we're talking about a personalized assistant who could plan for you. You, you do something crazy is like, hey, I need a, you know, I, I thought I lost my travel bag or something. So I was like,

• 1:08:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  hey, I need a small adopt kit for on the go for everything. Could you just like, you know, make a travel size and order it and get it to my house tomorrow? That seems very like, it, it feels like science fiction, but that is a very much in, in like the next 12 months. And so, hey, one to three percent of that transaction, that's a lot of money. And I think that that's the real way forward. It's becoming so integral into everything that everyone has a vested stake in you.

• 1:08:53Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:08:53Doug O'Laughlin?

  So.

• 1:08:54Jordi Hays?

  What, uh, so the, the AMD order and the fullness of time is around six gigawatts. Where do you expect that energy to come from? Do you expect Sam to start doing crazy deals like this on the energy side? He's already has Oklo, which is just, you know, up.

• 1:09:12Doug O'Laughlin?

  He's not chairman anymore. He had to step down.

• 1:09:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  Did you notice that?

• 1:09:15Jordi Hays?

  But, uh, I, I, I knew he wasn't direct. I mean, I'm assuming he's a major shareholder still. But so that's kind of one angle, but where else, where's the power going to come from?

• 1:09:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Dude, uh, that's a trillion dollar question. I feel like, uh, definitely there's a lot of ways to.

• 1:09:34Jordi Hays?

  But it's an important, it's an important one, right? If you're trying to, if you're trying to underwrite and say, this is real, at least for AMD. It's like, okay, well, how real can it be if there's, you know?

• 1:09:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  Dude, it's, okay, so.

• 1:09:48Jordi Hays?

  If we can't plug them in, you know?

• 1:09:50Doug O'Laughlin?

  There's a lot of ways, there's a lot of ways. Okay, so, um, let's, let's first talk about like, like, the grid is actually not built for um, a hundred percent production. So there's a lot of slack in the grid itself because it's actually built for the highest day and the lowest day. It's built to like have a ninety, you know, ninety-nine percent uh, margin rate, uh, you know, confidence interval on the absolute high and the absolute low. So the, the peak of the power. And so gas, or not gas, but generation throughout an, an average day is at a much lower utilization than a hundred percent. So I think the real reason and it's something you're going to start to see is that people are gonna like, essentially, the grid is gonna kind of start to become a lot more fragmented and there's gonna be a lot of behind the meter power, power generation that happens at the data center.

• 1:10:32Doug O'Laughlin?

  And so in that case, what you do is you'd sip from the grid. I mean, that you can use the grid when the grid is not totally utilized, when it isn't, you're doing gas gen on site. That's probably the thing that is um, most, I mean, it's gonna be huge. It's gonna be huge. Like, natural gas, uh, you know, energy consumption is just gonna go through the roof. So that's gonna be like the big driver, I think, to get these data centers online. I think it's gonna take a lot of time. Uh, and also, we're seeing like grids breaking right now. Like grids are just like, grids are not keeping up. And that's kind of been, um, I think it's gonna be a big story in twenty twenty-six. But I, I, I also think that that's where we're gonna see international purchases too. Just because like, we're running out of power in the United States. I mean, I think what, what's also interesting is like, even though we say we're running out of power,

• 1:11:14Doug O'Laughlin?

  uh, when you have this big demand response, supply comes out of the woodwork. So we're starting to see stuff like gas gen, gas turbines, like all these different like little clever pockets of energy are coming up to then fulfill the need. I expect that to continue. Effectively, if you have enough demand, well, you know, supply will find a way.

• 1:11:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, that feels like the next, that definitely feels like the next wave here is we're gonna see a hundred million dollar, a hundred billion dollar deal for a new Hoover Dam and more nuclear actual build out. There, there, there, there was some news about this with uh, some of the hyperscalers uh, trying to recommission nuclear power plants, but it just feels like it's so slow. It's not on the order of like in like what TSMC is fabbing next quarter. So we'd kind of lost track of it. But it does feel like that that's going to be the next chapter and maybe it'll be a little bit longer lead time, but you got to start thinking about it now.

• 1:12:05Jordi Hays?

  Where where do you expect the leverage to come from if that's the next leg of the journey? Is it net new private credit fund formation? Is it is it just banks getting more and more active? Like where where's the capital going to come from?

• 1:12:24Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay, so one, let's not forget there's positive free cash flow from all the big guys.

• 1:12:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:28Doug O'Laughlin?

  That annually is something like, you know, I actually have a spreadsheet, maybe even open right now, talking about the total firepower. We're talking quite a bit of capital is available to do this, like a surprising amount. I want to say on an annual basis, it's something like 250, maybe even, yeah, 200 billion. But the thing that's also really interesting is none of the hyperscalers are levered at all. There's a really good paper from DoubleLine talking about like, would you rather loan to the United States government?

• 1:12:56Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:12:56Doug O'Laughlin?

  Or would you rather loan to Microsoft? So the real like, you know, crazy town is if you start loaning to Microsoft instead of the United States government because Microsoft has net cash. Microsoft also, you know, has become more creditworthy over time versus, I would argue, the US government has become less creditworthy. And also, what's really crazy is that Microsoft has, you know, a five bips premium to the United States Treasury. So you're effectively, you know, their rates are risk free.

• 1:13:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:23Doug O'Laughlin?

  And so what's possible, I think, in terms of like, now, I think the real issue is like, how much liquidity could the actual credit market handle? I don't know if they can handle like $300 billion. Like, that's a shit ton of money. But like, we're talking, you know, there there's things that can definitely come out of those works, like private credit's going to be part of it, just because they're sitting on on like an ungodly amount of capital and they have to deploy it. I definitely think the hyperscalers for me are the one that are most interesting. Like, we're talking about, I mean, dude, that's crazy. Just like, like,

• 1:13:51John Coogan?

  It's funny you say, yeah. Yeah, it's funny you say 300 billion because I'm thinking, I was just doing the math on 250 billion in free cash flow. If if that's used to service 5% coupon payments, that's 5 trillion in notional debt that like, like value. If you're just saying like, what, what, like,

• 1:14:11Jordi Hays?

  We want to know where the where the systemic, where's the systemic risk going to come from? I don't know.

• 1:14:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  When you all run out together, that's the, that's the problem is like what happens is like it's just think of it as like one long debt, debt fueled binge, right? But the thing is, you're looking at the debt fueled binge and I can tell you confidently today, there's not really much debt to go around at the big guys. So, you know, I think, I think we could right now today, you'd get, and also I don't think everyone's going to get to like three times leverage. That's just insane. I don't think anyone wants to do that. But I definitely think there's a, there's a way to get to eight, eight hundred billion dollars of credit. Like, I mean, it's be insane, but that's one and a half turns from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. And the two that I think are most interesting is the founder led ones like Zuck and Sergey.

• 1:15:01Doug O'Laughlin?

  They control the companies. They have voting shares. They can do whatever the fuck they want. So if they, if they woke up tomorrow and said, get me, you know, get me a turn of EBITDA on this bad boy, they could get it. Now, um, that'd be really crazy because you know, they make a crap ton of money. I actually have the number right now. So right now, I think.

• 1:15:20Jordi Hays?

  Meta's cash on hand at the end of last year was around seventy seven billion. As of the end of June, it was down to forty seven billion and just will continue to drop throughout the year. So they, they already did that. I think it was like a thirty billion dollar.

• 1:15:37Doug O'Laughlin?

  They're not even close. They're not even close, man. I mean, so, okay, I have the numbers right now. Net debt is seventeen billion. Net debt for Google is negative fifty six. That means they have more, they have more cash than debt. Oracle is ninety four billion, which is a crap ton. Like, you know, they're pretty much, they're not tapped out, but they, they really, pretty much EBITDA has to go up for them to raise more. Meta's at two point four billion in debt. Um, and then Amazon's fifty eight billion in debt. So like Meta's, Meta and Google specifically, which are ironically the ones who are founder led. They have so much fucking, they have so much free cash or like they have so much cash, uh, cash they could raise if they want to. They both have, they both have like the gush cash and they're both founder led. Like that to me is. You know, that's that's the next leg, man. And and also, you have to think about like,

• 1:16:21John Coogan?

  Sorry.

• 1:16:22Doug O'Laughlin?

  Who doesn't want to lose?

• 1:16:23John Coogan?

  Yeah. Well, why are you not putting Nvidia in that camp? Founder-led, they have 50 billion in cash. They, you know, are not levered yet. Like, they could also lever up and start investing more aggressively, right?

• 1:16:35Jordi Hays?

  Well, they're doing, they're enjoying some customer, you know, demand guarantees, which are, which are.

• 1:16:41John Coogan?

  Yeah. But yeah, what's the story you're telling around Nvidia?

• 1:16:46Doug O'Laughlin?

  I think I think Nvidia is focused on a different level of stack, right? Because Nvidia is like, hey, we are an infrastructure provider. And, you know, we're having like all these long lead time things. Needs so much capital and time to get there. The thing that Nvidia wants to backstop, in my opinion, is the Neo Clouds. And so you're already starting to see that with like some of the Neo Cloud purchases that are happening, or like the Neo Cloud backstopping that happens at like, Landa, or even CoreWeave to a certain extent. What happens is they buy essentially flex capacity for research GPUs for Nvidia. So they can get better at programming, like Gem, essentially. But I think the thing, Yeah, I think Nvidia is much more focused on their part of the infrastructure ecosystem to be a backstop instead of purchasing GPU hours, right?

• 1:17:31Doug O'Laughlin?

  They're not, they're not in the market to, you know, they're a seller. And so, you know, if they, if they woke up one day and said, hey, we're going to just start buying this stuff in mass to make model, you'd be like, what the fuck's going on?

• 1:17:41John Coogan?

  I just wonder, I just wonder if the Nvidia story, like, if they get in on this like debt boom, it instantiates itself as like, They lever up and then and then they basically have instead of 50 billion to throw around, they have like 200 billion to throw around. And then that goes into equity purchases of companies that are doing, that are, that are purchasing GPUs. And it sounds really circular, but like, they are just another vehicle for credit to absorb like credit interest because they're such a big company.

• 1:18:12Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I do think that's possible, but I think I just don't think, I mean, you see that in some of the smaller investments, but I think they're really focused on the neo-class and the data center side, like the infrastructure around their ecosystem.

• 1:18:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Do you think, uh, do you think Satya might be feeling like he went a little risk off too early? Hmm.

• 1:18:31Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think so. And, and, and, and this guy over here is listening to transistor radio. So, uh, Microsoft's back. Like, I think they're, I think they're going to step back into the market in a big way. Like, uh, especially on the MOU after OpenAI and also MAI, they're starting to be very focused on, like, I expect them to be back in the marketplace now effectively. But I still, you know, so I think what happened is they did this giant build out in 23 where they said yes to every single leasing opportunity possible. And then they like, there was a top-down pause and now they're starting to pick up the pieces and be like, no, no, no, actually now by pausing, we have to pick back up. So I think, um, Satya definitely feels like, I don't know, he was definitely in first place for a long time and would have, if he just kept pushing, I think he would have kept in first place.

• 1:19:16Doug O'Laughlin?

  And now you have like, you know, Oracle popping in and being like, yeah, like I'll essentially steal all your business if you let me. We'll come in at a lower, lower price. Like I'm just going to lever my entire balance sheet for it, but we're talking about like, the four-year guide is a hundred billion dollars, man. Like, that's insane. So that hundred billion dollars arguably should have been all Microsoft's. And that's, you know, that's, that's up to them and they will tell you, um, in public meetings that like, you know, it's lower ROI for them. And sure, that's, that's the case, but I think Microsoft is definitely being conservative and they have the biggest balance sheet. So they're, I, I kind of don't expect them to be the first player. I think of it as like, kind of like, um, what is it called? Like OPEC, you need a slippery person to essentially defect. And the slippery defectors is Meta and Google, I think. And those are the two biggest.

• 1:20:01Doug O'Laughlin?

  And so when they start to really get into the game, all of a sudden they're going to be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, this is attacking my business model and I'm losing market share. And that's when, um, that's when the other guys come back in a big way.

• 1:20:12John Coogan?

  Yeah. Uh, do you think Sora is gonna move, uh, any of these like GPU build out plans? Like, uh, Sam was getting kind of mocked for saying like, oh, we're gonna have to pick between.

• 1:20:22Jordi Hays?

  I was, to be clear, I was the one saying, I said, uh, I just thought it was, I, I mean, I, I thought the lot, the timing of going out and saying, yeah, there's a very real possibility in the future that we'll have to choose between curing cancer and free education for everyone. And then a week later, we launch, you know, the most.

• 1:20:40John Coogan?

  It feels like.

• 1:20:40Jordi Hays?

  Intensive products.

• 1:20:42John Coogan?

  Intensive slop, yeah. Um, but, but I mean, we got some, we got some news on API pricing. It sounds like it's 32 cents a generation. Like, it, it, it feels like it might not be moving the needle as much on the, on the inference side. Or actually like, like, is Sora gonna make them GPU poor? I, I don't know if you have a view on that.

• 1:20:59Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's 30, sorry, it's 32 cents per inference. What's the timeframe on that?

• 1:21:03Jordi Hays?

  Uh, I think that's eight.

• 1:21:04John Coogan?

  It, well, it's per second, per second. Okay. So it's almost three bucks for a, for a 10, for a 10 second clip. Okay. So that's actually like on par with VO3, which is, that's pretty expensive.

• 1:21:14Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's pretty intense. That's pretty expensive.

• 1:21:16John Coogan?

  And they give you what? 10 credits a day or something? So if there's hardcore users out there, they're generating $30 a day. Uh, what, what is that? A thousand dollars a month? Like, it, it, it's, it's, it adds up if you get a million DAUs on there. Like, that's a lot.

• 1:21:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. I think there are, they probably have more, they, they have the potential to do much more than a million DAUs. I mean, they're, they're, they're definitely compute rich, man. The, the pulse thing, have you guys, have you guys been doing pulse at all?

• 1:21:40John Coogan?

  Yeah, I have.

• 1:21:41Doug O'Laughlin?

  They, they generate those images for you and you're like, oh, a little personalized slop feed for me. Like, that feels very.

• 1:21:46Jordi Hays?

  Um, I know, on, on launch day, we were reacting to it and John, John was like, John was very impressed. For me, it was like three out of the five images that I looked at were like, great. And then like two out of the five, I'm like, you could have just not generated this one. This is just absolutely garbage, you know? But.

• 1:22:03Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:03Jordi Hays?

  Um, what do you, what do you think about?

• 1:22:07Jordi Hays?

  What do you think, we had a question in the chat from Bobby, he says, asking about like, what do you think about public sentiment risk? It feels like I've never seen more hatred of AI from, from non-tech folks than, than in the last week or so. And you're seeing data centers, data centers just getting kind of like blocked. That feels like a potentially, you know, it's certainly going to be a roadblock at a bunch of different stages of this build out.

• 1:22:40Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think that that definitely is a newer roadblock that is getting more real. Because let's be real, up until now, no one cared. It's like such a small part of the big picture. But I still think, the reason why I think we're, we're going to go bravely into the future is everyone else seems to be pretty on board. And I think the one that really helps is the Trump administration is like super duper on board. They're like, hey, whatever, we're going to tear up the shit out of everyone, but we're going to, we're going to completely make up for the weakness in personal consumption by massively investing. And, you know, it's like, we're going to get the biggest check from every company in the world, from every nation in the world. And the only thing anyone wants to spend anything on right now is GPUs. And so they're like, F it, we're building more GPUs. And so you're, you're seeing all these huge announcements.

• 1:23:25Doug O'Laughlin?

  And I think that that's the, you know, that's, that's kind of the thing that will kind of push it back. I mean, if Trump is being like, dude, from the government itself, I'm blessing you to buy more GPUs, that's kind of, I think, the thing that really holds it together and makes it possibly much crazier from here. The public backlash thing, I think that it really comes back to, you have to have that feedback loop work all the way to the right decision maker, not just some random person. Like, yeah, I'm seeing that, read it on the news too. But like Mark Zuckerberg or Satya has to wake up and be like, what am I doing? Right? Right now, everyone in their camp, all the closest advisors and trusted people are being like, spend more, spend more. The government, you know, Trump is telling them.

• 1:24:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, the dinner, the dinner, everybody wanted to say the biggest number, right? It was even, even Zuck threw out a probably a bigger number than he meant to because he heard some, it seemed like he just heard someone else say a big number and he didn't want to say a smaller number.

• 1:24:21Doug O'Laughlin?

  How much am I good for? How much am I good? He's like, he's like on his phone right now, I was like, bigger number.

• 1:24:25Jordi Hays?

  Okay, I have a, I have a completely. One, one, one more question. How long do you think XAI can maintain?

• 1:24:36Jordi Hays?

  This level of, you know, basically like this level of investment without being able to back it up with real revenue growth.

• 1:24:49Doug O'Laughlin?

  I.

• 1:24:49Jordi Hays?

  Because it seems like this last financing, they were having to tell like the journal or some other publication, like, we're not having any trouble fundraising, which usually means like you're having not the easiest time if people are kind of poking around.

• 1:25:04Doug O'Laughlin?

  I, I mean, okay, so the same way I'm not going to bet against Sam Altman's ability to raise, I'm definitely not going to bet against Elon Musk's ability to raise. Like, Sam Altman is like the newest kid in the block, but if there's someone that like you should never essentially short ever in history time, it's Elon Musk. And the other thing I think that's like much more important with that is Elon's back in the seat. He's the CEO of Tesla and he like actually has the compensation. So he's like, fuck it. All right. I'm, I'm actually, I'm very locked in.

• 1:25:30Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, and you know, if we're talking about Mag7, you know, who has a lot of market cap?

• 1:25:35Jordi Hays?

  Tesla.

• 1:25:35Doug O'Laughlin?

  Tesla.

• 1:25:36Jordi Hays?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:25:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  So if things go really badly.

• 1:25:38Jordi Hays?

  That's, that's what I'm saying. The, the. Yeah, it, it just feels like I wouldn't be shocked if a year from now XAI was a part of, was merged in with Tesla.

• 1:25:49Doug O'Laughlin?

  A hundred percent, a hundred percent. And then that, you know.

• 1:25:52Jordi Hays?

  And that would actually be a creep. Tesla stock would pump on that, even though.

• 1:25:57Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:58Doug O'Laughlin?

  Not only would it pump, dude, but XAI would, would, would crush because then they're, then they, they, they're all of a sudden attached to one of the largest financial entities in the entire world.

• 1:26:06Jordi Hays?

  Totally.

• 1:26:07Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like that's, that's, you know, we're talking trillion, trillion dollar market cap, right? Like that's.

• 1:26:11Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:11Doug O'Laughlin?

  Real fucking, like you can take that and turn it around. You can loan it out and you can, you can move big checks, dude.

• 1:26:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's very, very non-trivial for them to raise 10, 20 billion dollars off.

• 1:26:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. What, what I was getting at was basically this last financing where they're going and raising capital at 200 billion and those investors have just been getting pitched Anthropic at like 170 with crazy, with a crazy revenue ramp and a bunch of, you know, real, real, you know, traction and code gen. The investors are looking around being like, okay, like I'll, I'm gonna, I'll give you the cash, but like I don't know the next time around if there's going to be the same level of appetite.

• 1:26:50Doug O'Laughlin?

  There there's some really big pockets that back Elon. I I wouldn't bet against the Elon sphere because you have to remember he made a lot of billionaires out of it. Like, you know, for example, Larry Ellison is always on the phone. I don't know if you knew that, like he's he, you know, he was good for a lot of X, uh, for X when they took down Twitter. And so you you can see a lot of big people come out of the woodworks and like Larry's flush now.

• 1:27:14John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:27:14Doug O'Laughlin?

  You know, he's he's got a lot of equity to spend. Okay. Like, you know, these people can come out of the woodworks. I definitely.

• 1:27:19Jordi Hays?

  I had a I had a theory, a theory that that we were kicking around earlier that I could see it because Larry's a was a big investor in the original X takeover, right? There's this iconic text exchange where Elon and Larry are talking and he's like, I'm good for a billion. And he's like, Elon's like, okay, you might want to do two.

• 1:27:40John Coogan?

  Yeah, whatever you recommend.

• 1:27:42Jordi Hays?

  And so I could see a world where X, the social platform, does not go to Tesla and get spun into the basically paramount, this whole like media conglomerate, right? Because I I just don't, you know, especially with XAI a part of Tesla. It's not like Tesla's sitting there and being like, we need to be able to pump timeline posts instantly into every Tesla in America. It just stops being quite as strategic, maybe.

• 1:28:09Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, yeah. I mean, I I don't disagree with that take. That's a pretty good take. But I just think that, like, you know, Elon will find a way, whatever way that that that it needs to happen. If that's with Oracle, if that's with Tesla, like Elon will find a way, I believe.

• 1:28:24John Coogan?

  Is there is there significant asset value in just Colossus 2? Like, it is the biggest supercomputer. It's this massive data center. It seems like it was very hard to build. It seems like all the hyperscalers would love to to to have it.

• 1:28:38Jordi Hays?

  Sam would love to have it.

• 1:28:39John Coogan?

  If you just ran an auction for it, do you have an idea of like what the value of Colossus 2 would be if there was like breakup value there?

• 1:28:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, you know, at today's value range, I I mean, I would say it's probably probably like

• 1:28:56John Coogan?

  Couple billion.

• 1:28:56Doug O'Laughlin?

  Tens of billions. I mean, I mean, maybe not tens. I mean, I mean, I would say tens, actually, tens, tens.

• 1:29:05John Coogan?

  That's not.

• 1:29:05Doug O'Laughlin?

  Cause it's, uh, are we talking, are we, are we including classes too?

• 1:29:08John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:29:09Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay, then yes, tens.

• 1:29:10John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, I I'm just thinking like, like the X A I assets, like, sure, the business isn't necessarily like printing profit with some massive consumer product market fit.

• 1:29:20Doug O'Laughlin?

  Someone would be really stoked.

• 1:29:21John Coogan?

  But someone would be stoked and there's some value there. It's interesting.

• 1:29:24Doug O'Laughlin?

  If you think about whatever MBS is, just that deal with, uh, Microsoft, uh, literally scale that up and that's, that's probably what you would buy on a TCO basis for Colossus.

• 1:29:33John Coogan?

  Sure, yeah.

• 1:29:33Doug O'Laughlin?

  There's demand, so, okay.

• 1:29:35John Coogan?

  Okay, my, yeah, one, one last question. You gotta go?

• 1:29:38Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay, okay.

• 1:29:39John Coogan?

  Uh, hairbrained, uh, hairbrained theory. Uh, I want your feedback on this hot take. Uh, there's a lot of discussion over the value of TSMC in Taiwan risk, uh, but we now have the Golden Visa, two million dollars to bring someone to America. For a hundred billion dollars, you could bring fifty thousand people. Is there, is there some world where we get into like AI talent wars? But for process knowledge around semiconductor manufacturing and and we see some American entity start poaching TSMC employees en masse to get them to America?

• 1:30:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, that's definitely possible. I just don't feel like it's probable. People have been saying there's a supply shortage yet, like TSMC has a lot of like, has almost a captive audience, dude. Like, if you think about it, TSMC is like, you know, I mean, it'd be like working for the government almost, but like even more prestigious and killing the shit out of everything. Like, TSMC is like the company of Taiwan.

• 1:30:37John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:30:37Doug O'Laughlin?

  Dude, honestly, TSMC engineers are like really underpaid as is, like on, don't tell, don't tell them, right? But like, um, on a, on a, on a dollar basis compared to even American peers and a lot of people like, like China, for example, uh, poaches very heavily. So I think there's definitely a chance, but I feel like you have to take the entire know, know all, like it's not just the tool, it's the tool, the process, everyone. You'd have to take the whole fab. Um, but yeah, I think that'd be. I think we sick dude. I think if Intel.

• 1:31:05John Coogan?

  Intel could do it, right?

• 1:31:06Doug O'Laughlin?

  Intel should do it.

• 1:31:07John Coogan?

  Yeah, Intel should do it because they have the golden visa. They have the backstop from Trump. They have all the investors coming in. They'll probably have an open AI deal soon. Who knows? And then they have all the money and then they can just bring people over. Uh, anyway, we won't take any more of your time. Thank you so much for hopping on the show.

• 1:31:20Jordi Hays?

  Super fun, Doug.

• 1:31:21John Coogan?

  Always a great time.

• 1:31:22Doug O'Laughlin?

  Nice to see you guys. Yeah. Talk soon. Bye.

• 1:31:25John Coogan?

  Uh, let me tell you about Turbo Puffer. Search every byte, serverless vector and full text search. From first principles and object storage, fast, ten X cheaper and extremely scalable. Uh, you also heard Doug talking about agentic commerce. It's more important than ever to get your brand mentioned on chat GPT. Go to profound, reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. Uh, our horse post popped off. We took our first day off on Friday, but we did give you some facts about our horse in the studio, which you can see behind Jordy Hayes over there. And we got a wonderful reply from Eric, who's working on soil tech. He says, the horse is a symbol of deep, the horse as a symbol is deep Lindy, power camaraderie and frontiering forward motion.

• 1:32:05John Coogan?

  As a Kentucky, as a Kentuckian, I can only agree. More horse content and shares three beautiful images of horse statues.

• 1:32:12Jordi Hays?

  Incredibly underrated animal.

• 1:32:15John Coogan?

  Uh, in other news, Dan McCormick, Paki McCormick's brother, has launched his creatine gummy brand in Target. That's create, uh, a wild step in this journey that in many ways started with him posting on X. Three years ago, he was embarrassed to be starting a creatine company. He'd shy away, hedge and downplay when asked about it in real life on X. Surrounded by a bunch of like-minded freaks that could post openly about my excitement and the business's progress. I've shared a lot less over the last two years, but my bullishness.

• 1:32:41Jordi Hays?

  It's actually the, the timing on create and Dan's.

• 1:32:45John Coogan?

  Really good.

• 1:32:45Jordi Hays?

  Perfect timing is insane. It was, it was, it felt like a supplement that was already had almost perfect saturation.

• 1:32:54John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 1:32:54Jordi Hays?

  Right? I think if anybody that I knew that was like working out multiple days a week was already using creatine, but. Never doubt American demand for supplements in gummy format.

• 1:33:06John Coogan?

  And never doubt.

• 1:33:07Jordi Hays?

  Never doubt it again. Never doubt Elon.

• 1:33:09John Coogan?

  Never doubt an Irishman.

• 1:33:10Jordi Hays?

  Never doubt demand for gummies.

• 1:33:12John Coogan?

  Oh, this is fun. Ramp in acquisition today. They bought Jolt AI to help their engineers build faster. Jolt is a world-class team of engineers who have spent years solving some of the hardest problems in developer productivity. Today, Ramp is welcoming them to the team. They're scaling the AI platform and reimagining how software and finance get built. Said, "From a talent perspective," says Kareem Attia from Ramp. Ramp's engineering team is made up of founders, math Olympians, and AI researchers.

• 1:33:40John Coogan?

  Kareem's goal is to hire elite technical talent and then get out of their way. For his part, Jolt's Specter, the founder, admitted in an interview that he didn't expect to get acquired by a company like Ramp, but that he's extremely happy it's where his team landed. The trio will be working on a number of things, including Ramp's internal engineering platform. So, congrats.

• 1:33:59Jordi Hays?

  Fantastic. Hit that gong, John.

• 1:34:05Jordi Hays?

  First hit of the week. It's good to be back.

• 1:34:08John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 1:34:08Jordi Hays?

  Technium says you can now invest in Nvidia, Intel, AMD, ARM, OpenAI, Mistral, CoreWeave, Nebius, and more with just one ticker.

• 1:34:17John Coogan?

  Nvidia, of course. We also had a fun.

• 1:34:20Jordi Hays?

  So, Omparik says word.

• 1:34:23John Coogan?

  Is he continuing?

• 1:34:24Jordi Hays?

  He's posting again.

• 1:34:25John Coogan?

  Is he continuing to run?

• 1:34:29John Coogan?

  We also got some gong analysis. This is from Ethan Frost on September 30th. He said, "I analyzed every gong hit on TBPN. Here's what I found." Tyler, can you take us through this post of what the breakdown was? And do you think this was manually tagged or was there AI involved? It's a pretty remarkable breakdown of all the different gong hits, how much they raised, and then how loud the gong hit was. But explain this post to us.

• 1:35:02Speaker 02

  Yes. I think the main thesis was like, are gong hits on TBPN, are they louder as funding increases?

• 1:35:08John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:35:09Speaker 02

  You can see the correlation is slightly there. I think it's a bit hard because of like, sometimes the microphone is just a little bit farther away.

• 1:35:15John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:35:16Speaker 02

  So, it wasn't like a crazy kind of correlation.

• 1:35:21Speaker 02

  But yeah, he basically just indexed all of the gong hits that we've basically ever done.

• 1:35:25John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:35:26Speaker 02

  And then done a ton of data. So like, Series A, Series B. Um, he breaks it all down. He also breaks down between you guys.

• 1:35:32John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:35:33Speaker 02

  So there's some good facts here.

• 1:35:34John Coogan?

  Who's louder on the gong, me or Jordy?

• 1:35:36Speaker 02

  Um, let's look. Definitely Jordy. Definitely.

• 1:35:40John Coogan?

  Jordy?

• 1:35:41Speaker 02

  For sure.

• 1:35:41John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:35:42Jordi Hays?

  Definitely me.

• 1:35:44Speaker 02

  Um, yeah, John, uh, is, is standing more often.

• 1:35:47John Coogan?

  Standing.

• 1:35:47Speaker 02

  Than Jordy when he's hitting the gong, but Jordy throws.

• 1:35:50Jordi Hays?

  Do I hit the gongs? Do I, but I throw the mallets.

• 1:35:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, Jordy throws the mallets a lot more.

• 1:35:55Jordi Hays?

  Now I've got a clean shot. I gotta be.

• 1:35:57John Coogan?

  You gotta really rip it. Uh, these are, these are so funny. Uh, total gongs I heard by day of the week. Why are there so many on Saturday and Sunday? We don't record on Saturday or Sunday. I was very confused, confused by this.

• 1:36:10Jordi Hays?

  Oh, maybe the weekly recap.

• 1:36:13John Coogan?

  Maybe.

• 1:36:13Jordi Hays?

  Be posted sometimes.

• 1:36:14John Coogan?

  But I like.

• 1:36:15Jordi Hays?

  Uh, anyways, fantastic analysis.

• 1:36:17John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:36:18Jordi Hays?

  And, um.

• 1:36:19John Coogan?

  The toss. Let's see the, the, the toss hit.

• 1:36:25John Coogan?

  That's a funny one. I like.

• 1:36:27Jordi Hays?

  Underutilized.

• 1:36:28John Coogan?

  Anyway, thank you for your, uh, for your service, Ethan Frost.

• 1:36:32Jordi Hays?

  Legend. Uh, Buko Capital says, I put 10% of my portfolio into reshoring semis and it just wasn't even close to enough. Easiest money of our lifetime. Listen to the president. Should have brought a shovel, not a teaspoon.

• 1:36:44John Coogan?

  That's true. Uh, yeah, very interesting to see where the, where the Intel story goes. I wonder if there will be an OpenAI deal.

• 1:36:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:36:51John Coogan?

  For CPUs or something.

• 1:36:53Jordi Hays?

  Justine Moore was sharing that Taylor Swift is using AI-generated videos to promote her new album.

• 1:36:59John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:36:59Jordi Hays?

  I was surprised to see that. Uh, biggest artist in the world.

• 1:37:04John Coogan?

  Usually there's like a ton of pushback when big artists.

• 1:37:06Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it feels like she would get, she's a prime.

• 1:37:09John Coogan?

  It might be happening. I haven't followed it too closely.

• 1:37:12Jordi Hays?

  But Patrick McKenzie says, I think the economic logic of this is inevitable and that you'll need video to get your N plus one marketing post through the noise on social media, even as Taylor Swift. And your choices are either 100K shoot per post or relatively junior employee with some taste.

• 1:37:27John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:28Jordi Hays?

  And, uh, yeah, it's a good take.

• 1:37:31John Coogan?

  Yeah, there is this development of like, will everything be instantiated in every possible format? So if you have a startup launch video or announcement, you'll write a pithy tweet, and then you'll write a blog post, and you'll also drop a podcast, and then you'll also drop a vibe reel and a video and a two-hour documentary, and they will all be instantiated from just a short fact sheet that then goes out. And it begs the question of like, where will the where will the instantiation live? Will I, as the consumer of content, say, I want to consume the these sources in video format? That's kind of the Notebook LM model, is

• 1:38:12John Coogan?

  like, I am saying, I want to consume the internet in a in a podcast format with ChatGPT. You're kind of like, no matter what question you ask, no matter what the sources are, it's it comes to you as a as a, you know, neatly organized research report that's a couple thousand words with bullet points, and it's not this, it's that every time. But but then there's the other side, which is on the lives on the creator side, which is says, I should instantiate my idea, my concept, my take as a TikTok reel, as a YouTube video, as a podcast, as a video, and I do that on my side. And I'm wondering where it lives long term. Like,

• 1:38:52John Coogan?

  because there is a world where you can go to where Taylor Swift doesn't need to generate the AI-generated video, because I, as the Taylor Swift fan, can go to Sora, and it knows that I'm a fan of Taylor Swift, and it automatically generates it for me, based on just her text post.

• 1:39:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, or she could just share, she could just share the prompt in text in the Notes app.

• 1:39:14John Coogan?

  And then you could just imagine it.

• 1:39:16Jordi Hays?

  Exactly.

• 1:39:16John Coogan?

  Maybe. I don't know, it'll be somewhere in between.

• 1:39:19Jordi Hays?

  Ethan Frost is in the chat saying, let's go.

• 1:39:21John Coogan?

  Oh, really?

• 1:39:21Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 1:39:22John Coogan?

  Hey, what's up, Ethan?

• 1:39:22Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 1:39:23John Coogan?

  Thanks so much.

• 1:39:23Jordi Hays?

  Great to see you.

• 1:39:23John Coogan?

  Good to see you.

• 1:39:24Jordi Hays?

  Thank you for analyzing the gunk.

• 1:39:26John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:39:28Jordi Hays?

  What else?

• 1:39:30John Coogan?

  Linear. Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps.

• 1:39:37Jordi Hays?

  I would go out on a limb and say everything that OpenAI launched today was almost certainly planned in linear.

• 1:39:43John Coogan?

  For sure, for sure. Oh, this is a fun one. So Kareem Jeddah says, "Introducing Gaslight Garage, a box where I put my phones and feed them AI-generated audio nonsense to make them think I want to buy stuff. Practical AI for the people, Gaslight Garage." And Snowy, or S-N-W-Y, says, "I tried this once after getting into an argument with my parents about whether your phone listens or not. Where do you stand on this, Jordy? Do you think your phone is listening to you?"

• 1:40:13Jordi Hays?

  And such a tough one, because everybody has like an example or two.

• 1:40:18John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:40:18Jordi Hays?

  But if you think about

• 1:40:21John Coogan?

  We talked about this thing.

• 1:40:22Jordi Hays?

  How many ads you get.

• 1:40:23John Coogan?

  And then I saw an ad for it.

• 1:40:24Jordi Hays?

  How many different things you see, how many ads you get over a multi-year period.

• 1:40:29John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:40:30Jordi Hays?

  How many products you talk about over a multi-year period.

• 1:40:34John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:40:34Jordi Hays?

  And then at some point or another, there being like perfect alignment between the two.

• 1:40:38John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:40:39Jordi Hays?

  And then also you have to factor in people that search for something once and then, you know, on a certain network and then forgot about it, or someone else in a household searched for something and then somebody else in the household gets served, right? There's a lot of different ways to explain away the listening aspect, but.

• 1:40:58John Coogan?

  I, yeah, I noticed that some of the spookiest, you know, ads that I would ever see would be, it would come from a conversation that I had with a person in real life, where like, yeah, the phones could have been listening, but more likely, and then I saw an ad that, so they tell me, "Oh, you gotta test out these headphones," and I see an ad for those exact headphones the next day. And I'm like, "That's weird. I just heard about that and now I'm seeing an ad." How did that happen? I know I didn't search for it. I know I didn't send any data signal to my phone or my apps. But then I realized that it's like, well, if they just ordered those headphones. And that data of them shopping and them going through that checkout flow is encoded in their Instagram profile.

• 1:41:41John Coogan?

  And then it knows that we hung out because we're friends on the network and we like each other's posts and we were texting with each other on the app and stuff. And then it can say, well, Jordy just liked these headphones. John and Jordy were just hanging out. Showed John the, like, they might be similar consumers. I feel like that can be like kind of spooky, but not, but very like a clear flow that would come from the data. But anyway, Snowy said, got two iPhone 6s, both wiped and connected to two different Wi-Fi networks with independent VPNs. Said keywords to one and different ones to another, never in earshot of each other, with multiple apps, Insta, Facebook, Twitter, open with their accounts and basic usage. And the ads were never what I said.

• 1:42:24John Coogan?

  They were basically always location-based slash pretty basic things. My running theory is that whoever thinks their phone is listening is just predictable enough that it knows, not because it heard them. I think that's probably right. Plus, there's this massive incentive that if the phones were listening and targeting, there would be a huge incentive to become a whistleblower. Like, there's been a whole tour of folks who have, like, left Meta, become influencers.

• 1:42:47Jordi Hays?

  You can go get a book deal.

• 1:42:48John Coogan?

  You can get a book deal. Exactly.

• 1:42:50Jordi Hays?

  You get a speaking tour. You can get a head talk.

• 1:42:52John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:42:53Jordi Hays?

  You can get a government job.

• 1:42:55John Coogan?

  Probably.

• 1:42:56Jordi Hays?

  I don't know how much somebody at Meta wants a government.

• 1:42:58John Coogan?

  Do you get paid to testify? Maybe they should do that. Appearance fee for testimony on Capitol Hill. Let's make it happen. Anyway, numeral. Sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Someone, someone in the chat is like, I was just thinking about numeral.

• 1:43:16Jordi Hays?

  How did they know?

• 1:43:17John Coogan?

  He's speaking to me directly. Well, you and Tyler should debate this one. Mr. B said, when AI videos are just as good as normal videos, I wonder what that will do to YouTube and how it will impact millions of creators making content for a living. Scary times. And just in more head.

• 1:43:35Jordi Hays?

  It's kind of crazy that biggest YouTuber comes out and, and comes out and just scares everybody. Because I think if you dig into this at all, it's pretty easy to show how AI presents an incredible opportunity for existing creators. Like, yes, some amount of attention will go to content, will go to net new.

• 1:44:03Jordi Hays?

  Net new content creators that are just using the tools better or more focused. But nowhere in here does it say that if you're making a living from content today, you can't use AI to make significantly more content, significantly better content. It's much more of an opportunity than a threat in its current form.

• 1:44:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, I also think, it's funny coming from Mr. Beast because it's just like, this is like slop on slop hate. Like, Mr. Beast is like, I would not want my kids to be watching Mr. Beast videos. If you watch them, it's just like, the cuts are like every like one and a half seconds. It's like pretty insane already. So, I think Mr. Beast's

• 1:44:43Jordi Hays?

  Well, also, if you remember, if you remember, he wasn't, he tried to create a tool that used AI to make thumbnails. And he eventually rolled that feature back because it was taking away potential revenue from thumbnail artists.

• 1:45:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, so I mean, I would say that his style of content is much more susceptible, I guess, to like being

• 1:45:10Jordi Hays?

  See, I totally, I totally disagree because I think part of the reason, like, I can see what you're saying in the sense that like, you can argue like this is slop, I don't want people to, I wouldn't want my kids to watch it. At the same time, it's very clearly the opposite, it's the opposite of slop in that it's like massive, massive productions, real humans, right, real money on the line.

• 1:45:34John Coogan?

  Don't worry, Jimmy, like, people want to know that you made a hundred people stay in that circle for a month.

• 1:45:40Jordi Hays?

  Exactly, it's like, so much more entertaining. If you just took Mr. Beast style content and made it using AI, it would not be nearly as entertaining, right?

• 1:45:50John Coogan?

  Yeah, people want the, people want the suffering.

• 1:45:53Jordi Hays?

  It's like, why, or you could just watch two robots play chess, right?

• 1:45:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:57Speaker 02

  Like, okay, you can say that it has this big budget, but like, I don't think, you can't say that Mr. Beast is like, oh, it's like this auteur cinematic content. Like, it's still at, like, there's like, okay, it's like, they have real people, but above that, it's just like, this is like very stimulating, like, fast-paced content.

• 1:46:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but a big part of it is the human suffering element. AI, I, you know, wait until AI can actually suffer like a human.

• 1:46:24John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, I mean, I mean, you could, I'm trying to think of the most recent example, but there is something about just like the fact checking chain of like, if you're watching someone do like, I bet when the X Games happens, or when Red Bull does their next stunt, like, that will get more viral views than the Stephen Hawking novelty X Games video. Just because there's something that we know that the fact that the X Games is a real organization, that they own, that they're not posting AI-generated content, and they've made that commitment to only show videos of Red Bulls, only showing videos of humans doing wingsuiting through a helicopter off of a cliff or whatever. And so there's something

• 1:47:08John Coogan?

  that just hits like more emotionally, like it's more emotionally resonant. And then there's also all of these like downstream, like behind the scenes, like, like the Mr. Beast, like, are the videos fake, has been a long time debated. He's kind of won, beat those allegations every time. But like the incentive to like, kind of see like a whistleblower on someone who's like faking their content will be like at an all time high. But I would imagine that the institutions that still make people suffer will do quite well. But I don't know. I mean, for, for, I think it'll definitely like widen the gap. Like, if you're, if you're, if you're making content that is at all substitutable with slop, like you're done.

• 1:47:51John Coogan?

  But if you're making content that cannot be challenged whatsoever, and is so like uniquely human, but we, where does Mr.

• 1:47:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, a good example, a good example is like, are, is, is Andrew Huberman threatened by someone else coming out and creating an AI-based persona that tries to do the same thing that he does, right? In terms of like creating long-form content around various health protocols and health topics. And I think that even if you could put the level of craft in that the Huberman Lab team does.

• 1:48:29Jordi Hays?

  Do you want to be getting health advice from an imaginary robot? Right? Or is it, or do you want health advice from Andrew Huberman? Because he's 50 and he's absolutely jacked. He's living, living his best life, right? It's like who, you know, where the content is coming from. Matters a lot.

• 1:48:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah. The providence matters. People, people care about other humans. They, they're anti-clanker at their core in many ways. Well, let me tell you about fin.ai, the number one AI agent for customer service. Number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive makeups, number one ranking on G2. In other reshoring, we're not just reshoring chips, we're also reshoring Sharpies. Apparently Sharpie found a way to make pens more cheaply by manufacturing them in the United States. Newell Brands move production.

• 1:49:17Jordi Hays?

  I need one of these. They need to make the red, white and blue Sharpie pack immediately. I need these.

• 1:49:24John Coogan?

  This is actually mentioned in the Wall Street Journal article. Apparently, where is it? Donald Trump uses a Sharpie all the time or something like that.

• 1:49:33Jordi Hays?

  For signatures, right?

• 1:49:35John Coogan?

  Yeah. Where, where is it? Pen barrels whirl along automated assembly lines that rapidly fill them with ink. At least half a billion Sharpie markers are churned out here every year. Each one made of six, six, six parts. Only the felt tip is imported from Japan. It didn't used to be this way back in 2018. Many Sharpies were made abroad. That's when Chris Peterson, who is the CFO of Sharpie maker Newell Brands, challenged his team to answer the question, how could they keep Newell from becoming obsolete compared with factories in Asia? I felt like we had an opportunity to dramatically improve our US manufacturing. He's now the CEO. And he makes all 93 colors of Sharpie at a 37-year-old factory. And they did it without reducing employee count and without raising prices.

• 1:50:20John Coogan?

  But to get to this place, it took close than two, close to $2 billion in investments across the company.

• 1:50:25Jordi Hays?

  And of course, this is a $2 billion market cap company.

• 1:50:32John Coogan?

  What book value to market cap is one to one, apparently? If they did all in cap.

• 1:50:36Jordi Hays?

  This company has so.

• 1:50:38John Coogan?

  I want to get the CEO on the show at some point. President Trump uses a custom Sharpie. He slapped high tariffs on many imports with the goal of prompting more companies to do what Newell has done and bring manufacturing back to the US. But Filippo Falorini, an analyst at Citi, said, few companies in the sector have the resources to replicate Newell's move. Well, I think we're ready for our next guest. Ready? Let's bring in Celine from Loyal. But first, let me tell you about Adio, customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales and grows your company to the next level and gets started for free. Let me also tell you about Public, investing for those that take it seriously.

• 1:51:21John Coogan?

  They got multi asset investing, industry leading yields.

• 1:51:24Jordi Hays?

  There you are.

• 1:51:24John Coogan?

  And they're trusted by millions. Yeah, we're hoping to get a real horse in the studio at some point.

• 1:51:29Speaker 04

  I can help with that.

• 1:51:30John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:51:30Speaker 04

  I have like three.

• 1:51:31John Coogan?

  No way.

• 1:51:31Jordi Hays?

  Three.

• 1:51:31John Coogan?

  You actually have horses?

• 1:51:32Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm a crazy horse girl.

• 1:51:34John Coogan?

  Where?

• 1:51:34Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 1:51:34Speaker 04

  Petaluma.

• 1:51:35John Coogan?

  Petaluma?

• 1:51:36Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:51:36John Coogan?

  Do you live there?

• 1:51:37Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:51:37John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:51:37Speaker 04

  SF.

• 1:51:38John Coogan?

  Cool.

• 1:51:38Speaker 04

  But I do the anti commute.

• 1:51:40John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:51:40Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:51:41John Coogan?

  What is that?

• 1:51:41Speaker 04

  Like you drive up against the traffic.

• 1:51:43John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:51:43Speaker 04

  In North Bay to go ride your horses.

• 1:51:45John Coogan?

  Okay, okay.

• 1:51:45Speaker 04

  I've taken investor calls while on a horse.

• 1:51:47John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:51:47Speaker 04

  Almost fell off while on an investor call while on a horse.

• 1:51:51John Coogan?

  Wait, walk me through like, are they the same breed? Like, what's the story with the three horses? Why three?

• 1:51:56Speaker 04

  Horses are potentially the worst investment you could ever make. I do not recommend them. They are worse. I feel like there's some like seed valuation joke you could make here about horses. Anyhow, they tend to break themselves. They're like self destructive.

• 1:52:10John Coogan?

  We were thinking about getting a horse at one point. We wanted to race it in the Kentucky Derby and give it like some funny name.

• 1:52:15Jordi Hays?

  We were gonna call it the ramp.

• 1:52:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:52:18Speaker 04

  Oh, my God.

• 1:52:19John Coogan?

  And we were running the numbers and it wasn't that crazy as a marketing.

• 1:52:22Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, you get into it and you're like, okay, maybe it's like a hundred K for the horse and then it's like a couple grand a month to like.

• 1:52:28John Coogan?

  But it's such a funny stuff. Someone's gonna do it now that we said it on the show.

• 1:52:31Speaker 04

  Dude, that color would look sick on a horse, though. Like, imagine the racing stripes.

• 1:52:35John Coogan?

  I'd love it. Anyway, sorry. Kick us off with an introduction on yourself and the company.

• 1:52:39Speaker 04

  Hi, yeah, I'm Celine Hollywa. I'm the founder and CEO of Loyal and we're developing drugs to extend dog lifespan.

• 1:52:45John Coogan?

  Amazing.

• 1:52:46Jordi Hays?

  Horses next?

• 1:52:47Speaker 04

  Horses next, venture capitalists next.

• 1:52:49John Coogan?

  Humans eventually.

• 1:52:51John Coogan?

  Uh, yeah, what, uh, what was the inspiration for the company? Like, did you know that you wanted to start with animals? Or was that purely like the FDA?

• 1:52:59Speaker 04

  No. So I actually was working in human longevity. So I worked with a previous guest of y'alls, Laura Deming.

• 1:53:05John Coogan?

  Amazing.

• 1:53:05Speaker 04

  At her venture fund for a few years and we were just frustrated because nobody was trying to develop a drug explicitly for lifespan extension. Right? And we're like, this is obviously like, obviously we all live longer and healthier.

• 1:53:17Jordi Hays?

  That was a sci-fi promise.

• 1:53:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:17Speaker 04

  That was the promise.

• 1:53:18Jordi Hays?

  Everybody was promising it, but nobody was working on it specifically.

• 1:53:20Speaker 04

  Not directly. No, they're all kind of going these indirect paths. And so we became obsessed with how to do this. Realized to do it in humans, it would take a lot of time, a lot of money, but you could do it in dogs. It's a super crazy market. I hear one of you is a dog person.

• 1:53:33John Coogan?

  I am, I am. My dog was supposed to attend, but I had to leave right after and he's busy. He was chasing squirrels. He's a 10-year-old Newfoundland, so he needs...

• 1:53:40Speaker 04

  Oh, wait. So you understand this?

• 1:53:41John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:53:41Speaker 04

  Because we're starting with the big dog short lifespan.

• 1:53:44John Coogan?

  Yeah, on your homepage for a while at least.

• 1:53:47Speaker 04

  Yeah, no, NuFies are the shit.

• 1:53:49John Coogan?

  Yeah, no, it was, uh, like the dog was pitched to me as like, look, every, every day after year five is like a miracle. Because they're known to have extremely short lifespans. And so I kind of set myself up for like, look, like I'm, I'm not coming in. You, you get a, you get a golden retriever, you're not thinking like, yeah, it's going to live for 40 years. So I just went into it thinking, okay, I'm getting a Newfoundland, it's six to eight years or something. And he's done very well. He's 10 years old.

• 1:54:11Speaker 04

  Good job. We need to sequence your dog. I'll send you a saliva kit, which I have an investor that has two giant NuFies that they bring around everywhere.

• 1:54:19John Coogan?

  Ooh, everywhere. I should do that.

• 1:54:21Speaker 04

  Like on his plane. It's, it's hilarious and...

• 1:54:23Jordi Hays?

  Well, that's why he's living so long.

• 1:54:24Speaker 04

  Well, yeah, that helps. And, uh...

• 1:54:27Jordi Hays?

  Do not take your dog's commercial.

• 1:54:28John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:54:30Speaker 04

  But I actually got convinced to take their term sheet because they sent me their Pinterest board, which was just NuFies all the way down.

• 1:54:38John Coogan?

  I love NuFies. They're the best dogs.

• 1:54:39Jordi Hays?

  Fully committed.

• 1:54:40John Coogan?

  They're so good. Um, so yeah, uh, on the, like, the fact that there's never been a drug explicitly for longevity. Is that just because like in order to have a drug, you need a, like a problem or some sort of like, it needs to be a treatment for a specific condition? And, and just death is not a condition? And so is that the right narrative?

• 1:54:58Speaker 04

  Yeah. Like the way to think about it is to be able... To have a drug to approve to do something, you have to prove that the drug is doing that thing.

• 1:55:06John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:55:07Speaker 04

  And so if I gave you guys a longevity drug and I was like, oh, let's see if it extends your lifespan.

• 1:55:10John Coogan?

  Just wait fifty years.

• 1:55:11Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'd be following you for decades and the company's gonna be long dead and all of that.

• 1:55:15Jordi Hays?

  It's also hard to prove that the drug was the catalyst for longer life, right? It could have been, oh, they just got a lot of sun or they walked a lot.

• 1:55:23Speaker 04

  There's a lot of variability, right? Like the decisions you make, the yerba mate, being pro or anti longevity, whatever it is, right? All of these things vary aging. It's one of the most complex phenotypes, but we all go through it.

• 1:55:35John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:55:36Speaker 04

  And it's the same thing is true in dogs, but the good thing about dogs, at least when you're developing a longevity drug is they age much faster.

• 1:55:42John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:55:43Speaker 04

  So you can see if something is working in a period of time, that's much more reasonable.

• 1:55:46Jordi Hays?

  And you can theoretically have a much more like isolated study, is that right? Just because.

• 1:55:54Speaker 04

  What do you mean isolated?

• 1:55:55Jordi Hays?

  Well, I just imagine like it's easier to control factors in a dog's life versus like a bunch of.

• 1:56:00John Coogan?

  Like a dog is not going on a bender in Las Vegas.

• 1:56:02Speaker 04

  That is, yes, yeah.

• 1:56:04John Coogan?

  So you can just be like, yeah, well, we know exactly what the dog's diet was pretty much every single day. Maybe he got into a cheeseburger once, but a human is like using diet coke one day and then some alcohol and then this and then bender and then Burning Man, who knows? There's so many confounding factors.

• 1:56:18Jordi Hays?

  Dogs aren't like, didn't have like a cheeky cigarette habit earlier in their life that they don't talk about or something.

• 1:56:26Speaker 04

  No, it's true, yeah, dogs just, it's a lot, it's still complicated, but it's much more simple. And then you also have these individual breed variances, which teach you a lot about humans too, right? Like, why does a NuFie have such a short lifespan versus a Golden versus a Chihuahua? You can study these things in a much more quickly way.

• 1:56:43John Coogan?

  Yeah, why not, why not mice, though? I feel like there's a lot of mice studies, it works in mice.

• 1:56:47Speaker 04

  I love mice, I don't think mice are a multi-billion dollar market.

• 1:56:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that's the thing, the commercial opportunity with dogs, if you ask a dog owner, how much would you pay to have an extra year of healthy lifespan for your dog?

• 1:57:00John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:01Jordi Hays?

  And I'm sure there's a wide range between like. A thousand dollars and some people that are like, I would pay any price. I will, you know, liquidate my 401k for another two years.

• 1:57:13Speaker 04

  It's actually really interesting, like people, it's not actually really at all correlated to socioeconomic status or how much, you know, people cash, people have in the bank. They will just spend anything, a certain subset of the population will spend anything on their dog. I've had people offer me $50,000 for the drug before and I would like to note to the FDA that I said no.

• 1:57:32John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:57:33Speaker 04

  But I've actually gotten a lot of offers like this. The willingness to pay is insane. The market is huge and so we could hopefully make a multi-billion dollar company around this and then use that revenue to fund more research.

• 1:57:45Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:57:45Speaker 04

  Uh, maybe into horses.

• 1:57:46John Coogan?

  Love it. Uh, yeah. What was the initial?

• 1:57:49Jordi Hays?

  Yes, please.

• 1:57:50John Coogan?

  What was the initial target? Kind of the, the, the biotech side of the business? Like, how did you know what to target? How did, like, how did you narrow it down? Like, there's a lot of different life extensions, NAD and telomere extension and just, you know, cardiac stuff. There's like a million different sub indications that people think about when they're thinking about their own longevity. How'd you narrow it down? What did you focus on?

• 1:58:10Speaker 04

  So, the way we thought about it is we wanted something that was as broad as possible. So as, you know, efficacious and relevant to the Chihuahua as it is to another dog, right? And even if they have different food or different behaviors or, you know, more inbred or less inbred, that it still may work. So that was one. And two, you want something that's relatively simple, right? Aging is so unbelievably complicated that when you add any additional variables, like things just become exponential really quickly.

• 1:58:36Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:58:36Speaker 04

  And so where we actually started is what you were talking about early with NuFis, with the short lifespan of big dogs. Because it turns out the genetic driver of dog size, something that makes a NuFie grow really, really big in puberty, or makes a Chihuahua not grow big in puberty, also genetically controls the rate of aging of that dog. So your NuFie, well, maybe not your NuFie, but the average NuFie is actually aging at a much faster rate. And so that was a really nice place to start because A, it's something that everyone understands, especially big dog lovers. They're like, I know, I know the heartbreak of losing a Great Dane or losing a, a large Labrador. And it was like simple mechanistically. And it was applicable to a wide swath of the canine population.

• 1:59:18Speaker 04

  Basically, any dog over a certain weight would be eligible and has this problem, right? Because they're not living as long as a Chihuahua that lives for 16 years. Every other bigger dog has a somewhat shorter lifespan than that theoretical maxima.

• 1:59:30John Coogan?

  So, I mean, how do you explain what the drugs are actually doing?

• 1:59:35Speaker 04

  So, basically-

• 1:59:36Jordi Hays?

  It's a black box, unfortunately.

• 1:59:39Speaker 04

  Basically, the way to think about it is, you know, all puppies are born approximately the same size, but a Great Dane puppy has super high levels of these proteins called growth hormone and IGF-1. And these are circulating at really high levels and they're basically binding to their cells and saying, "Grow divide, grow divide." And that's why your burner puppy, or NuFy puppy, is getting so big.

• 1:59:56John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:59:57Speaker 04

  That's normal. It happens in humans, too, but it shunts down significantly once you're fully grown.

• 2:00:01John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:00:02Speaker 04

  In a big dog, it doesn't.

• 2:00:03John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:03Speaker 04

  So, big dogs still have these super high levels of these growth hormones circulating around that are basically making the dog turn over-

• 2:00:10John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:00:10Speaker 04

  -at a faster rate. So, what the drug does is it inhibits those levels, it brings them down to a level that's seen naturally in dogs. So, thank bringing a NuFy's level down to an Aussie Shepherd or something similar.

• 2:00:21John Coogan?

  Interesting.

• 2:00:21Speaker 04

  And this is like this idea that if you reduce growth hormone, if you reduce IGF-1, extends lifespan. It's actually been shown all the way from worms-

• 2:00:28John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:00:29Speaker 04

  -to mice, to, you know, a multitude of organisms, and there's even human centenarians that have the same genetic, you know, things that chihuahuas do.

• 2:00:38John Coogan?

  And are bio-

• 2:00:38Jordi Hays?

  And they're spiritually chihuahuas.

• 2:00:40John Coogan?

  So, is the like-

• 2:00:42Speaker 04

  I think that's an insult.

• 2:00:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:44John Coogan?

  Is the scientific, like, phrase like IGF-1 inhibitors, essentially?

• 2:00:47Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:00:48John Coogan?

  And are biohackers using that, like, wild, like, against the FDA?

• 2:00:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, how much can you learn from-

• 2:00:54John Coogan?

  Is there medical tourism?

• 2:00:55Jordi Hays?

  -these sort of fringe biohackers and what-

• 2:00:57Speaker 04

  Oh, God.

• 2:00:58John Coogan?

  These N1 studies.

• 2:00:59Jordi Hays?

  Is there anything, is there anything to learn, or just?

• 2:01:02Speaker 04

  Well, yes, there's always things to learn. You know, it's funny, people actually often will supplement growth hormone and IGF-1 because it makes your muscles really big.

• 2:01:11John Coogan?

  Oh, sure.

• 2:01:11Speaker 04

  And it's very aesthetic.

• 2:01:12John Coogan?

  It's kind of like human growth hormone.

• 2:01:14Speaker 04

  Yeah, exactly, exactly. It does not increase function, but it does increase, like, muscle size. So, a lot of people are, might not be happy-

• 2:01:20Jordi Hays?

  Interesting. It doesn't correlate with strength at all?

• 2:01:23Speaker 04

  It's just like, "Huh."

• 2:01:25John Coogan?

  Gives you the pump.

• 2:01:27Speaker 04

  Yeah, you guys can't tell I'm on it.

• 2:01:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, yeah, plenty. I think the people that are taking HGH are doing that specifically entirely for aesthetic reasons and they're they're post-strength.

• 2:01:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:01:39Speaker 04

  Yes, yes, they are post-strength.

• 2:01:42John Coogan?

  But but are there people in the bio in the biohacking community that swear by it? Or are they optimistic that it will have an effect on longevity for them?

• 2:01:51Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, this mechanism is pretty consensus.

• 2:01:54John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:01:54Speaker 04

  As a longevity mechanism.

• 2:01:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:01:56Speaker 04

  It's not going to be as like this specific one, the big dog short lifespan, isn't going to be as relevant to humans because like I'm not living twice as long as you guys. Right? Me being so short that I'm having to like sit on my feet.

• 2:02:07John Coogan?

  Sure, but a new fee does live twice as uh it lives half as long as a chihuahua.

• 2:02:10Speaker 04

  Exactly, exactly. So think of it as kind of like a biological hack.

• 2:02:14John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:02:14Speaker 04

  To have a foot into a very, very, very complicated biological problem.

• 2:02:19John Coogan?

  Yep. What's the current understanding of why women live longer than men?

• 2:02:23Speaker 04

  I mean, we just do less crazy shit.

• 2:02:26John Coogan?

  It's just risk-taking?

• 2:02:27Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's risk-taking.

• 2:02:29John Coogan?

  I think it's like heart attacks or something.

• 2:02:31Speaker 04

  No, I actually don't know. There's like a real reason, but I don't.

• 2:02:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. I like the idea that dudes are just wing-seating.

• 2:02:37Speaker 04

  Dudes are just fucking insane.

• 2:02:38John Coogan?

  Um, so so walk me through the the actual process to commercialize and and, you know, grow the business. I imagine the FDA has a number of different subgroups, veterinary medicines. One of them, is that a more receptive, faster pathway than just the traditional drugs for humans pathway? Are you accelerated there?

• 2:03:01Speaker 04

  Yeah, so the the FDA on the veterinary side is super stringent, right? It's it it matters a lot in some ways, you know, it's almost more because a dog can't talk. So you're really trusting the FDA and you're trusting your veterinarian that this like pill you're giving isn't going to like cause some disaster.

• 2:03:16John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:03:16Speaker 04

  Um, but the nice thing with with canines is that the incentives are really, really aligned, right? Like, everybody wants dogs to live a longer, healthier life and preventative medicine is really where it is with dogs because, you know, there's no insurance. Nobody's getting half a million dollar cancer CAR-T therapies or whatever, right? It's it's it's always the dog owner having to pay out of pocket.

• 2:03:37John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:03:37Speaker 04

  So most of the really successful dog drugs today are already preventative medicines. Think like heartworm prevention, right? It's reducing the risk of your dog getting a disease that if you give the drug, you'll never see them get that disease.

• 2:03:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:03:49Speaker 04

  Right? Flea and ticks, same thing. There's a lot of categories of medicines like this. So yeah, it's actually been really fun to work with them. And then the new administration is like, well, it's a little complicated, like super pro longevity, right? And so it'll be interesting to see how that maybe impacts the human side where things are very regulated, but also just a bit more complicated.

• 2:04:08Jordi Hays?

  But it seems absolutely critical, even just from a fiscal standpoint, that we figure out how to get people to live longer and healthier.

• 2:04:17Speaker 04

  Yes, it's, you know, people, when you talk about longevity, they tend to be like, oh, but like, you're just going to make the rich live longer. And like, the fact of the matter is, is the rich already live longer because they can also access better cancer meds, better, you know, doctors, I do like preventative screens all the time. The vast majority of Americans could never afford that, right? Versus like a daily cheap pill that broadly extends your quality of life and broadly extends your lifespan. It not only helps that individual to potentially prevent them or delay them developing cancer, it also helps their children who aren't going to have to become caretakers before their own careers have taken off. It means that they can have more flexibility in pursuing doing the next great thing. I think actually, like, you know, better health of the population is

• 2:05:00Speaker 04

  one of the best great equalizers we could bring.

• 2:05:03John Coogan?

  Yeah. How closely does the, does your business track to what I'm loosely familiar with in the biotech world where it's like, you're in the lab, you develop the drug, then you test it on like dog, monkey, mice, something like that. You take that data through phase one, phase two, it's a multi-year process. The company might IPO and then get bought by Merck or Pfizer at some point. Like, that's what I think of when I think of biotech, like, like, yes, we've created a new drug for like this very specific cancer, but it's still a $10 million or $100 billion outcome because it like, it fixed this one thing and it became very profitable. Is that the typical path or is it wildly different in veterinary?

• 2:05:42Speaker 04

  Dude, your biotech context is like on point. I'm actually super impressed.

• 2:05:46John Coogan?

  We had a bunch of biotech investors and founders on one day when Trump was doing the most favorite nation thing.

• 2:05:54John Coogan?

  Uh, which I don't really know where that went, but anyway, uh, just in terms of like

• 2:05:57Speaker 04

  There was almost a hundred percent tariff on us and then that got, yeah.

• 2:06:00John Coogan?

  Oh, really?

• 2:06:00Speaker 04

  Yeah. But that got taken away. It's, it's been really interesting. It's been exciting.

• 2:06:03John Coogan?

  It's all a roller coaster this year.

• 2:06:04Speaker 04

  My cortisol is just like.

• 2:06:06John Coogan?

  Perfect. So that's good for longevity.

• 2:06:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:06:08Speaker 04

  My personal longevity is not benefiting from the bill. Um, so the way to think about it is if, if you're comparing to human is you do, um, maybe backing up a little bit, the overarching themes of developing a dog drug is it takes like four to seven years, basically by a combination of how effective and how lucky you are to get a dog drug approved, takes about 20 to 50 million dollars. Um, for context in humans, it takes a decade to develop a human drug, takes about a billion dollars to develop a human drug.

• 2:06:35John Coogan?

  So you're like orders of magnitude faster and cheaper.

• 2:06:37Speaker 04

  Orders of magnitude faster and cheaper. And then actually the coolest thing is.

• 2:06:40Jordi Hays?

  And you guys have been pretty lucky, right?

• 2:06:42Speaker 04

  We've also been lucky, right? And like totally.

• 2:06:44John Coogan?

  Where, where, where did you catch lucky breaks?

• 2:06:46Speaker 04

  Oh, my God, like.

• 2:06:47Jordi Hays?

  Well, I just feel like, I, I feel like, uh, the average, whenever you guys announce that like any type of milestone, the average investor is basically sharing something to the effect of you guys don't realize like how rare this is, like the speed at which you guys have been able to.

• 2:07:01Speaker 04

  I mean, it's.

• 2:07:02Jordi Hays?

  Kind of just like knock down these different milestones.

• 2:07:04Speaker 04

  It's, I mean, we've gotten the first ever efficacy approval for a longevity drug. We've created the first regulatory pathway for a drug that we've approved for longevity. For any species, right? Obviously it's in dogs, but it's any species and dogs actually are, they're ma, they're regulated by the same federal regs as human drugs. So it's a, it was still a really huge lift. We've gotten the, we're running the first ever lifespan pivotal FDA enabling clinical trial, like all of these things are super, super hard. We got, um, obviously we're like, have a smart team, but yeah, you have to get really lucky too, right? We got lucky at the drugs. When you pick a drug and you're like, this is going to be our lifespan extension drug, it either is or isn't, right? And there's nothing I can do as CEO to make this drug work if it doesn't work.

• 2:07:46John Coogan?

  Well, you can try and take like 10 drugs through the pathway at the same time potentially.

• 2:07:50Speaker 04

  That's kind of what we're doing. We have like foreign development, but that's really expensive.

• 2:07:54John Coogan?

  Of course.

• 2:07:54Speaker 04

  Right?

• 2:07:54John Coogan?

  So you have to, you have to pick a couple candidates that have the most promise and luck comes in and that like you hope one of those is the one that you picked.

• 2:08:02Speaker 04

  And you hope there isn't some like random toxicity that you find out at the 11th hour and that like totally nukes and especially with a longevity drug, there's zero tolerance for adverse events. There's zero tolerance for me turning your dog blue.

• 2:08:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, because it's not like you have a bad condition that you're trying to treat.

• 2:08:17Speaker 04

  Exactly.

• 2:08:17Jordi Hays?

  Some side effects or, or. The average patient would be okay with some side effects.

• 2:08:22Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 2:08:22Jordi Hays?

  It's like you're the, you're going from net neutral to it has to be better.

• 2:08:26Speaker 04

  Exactly, exactly.

• 2:08:28Jordi Hays?

  Can't reduce quality of life. Yeah. I mean, that much. I mean, there's people like, um, what are some of the human, uh, the, the drugs that human patients are taking? I feel like Peter Attia and people are taking certain drugs that like.

• 2:08:41Speaker 04

  Like rapamycin.

• 2:08:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, they like, they, they metformin like reduces your like athletic performance.

• 2:08:47Speaker 04

  They all have some like, like metformin is like works by improving your metabolic fitness. Um, which, um, we actually have drugs that are, actually our lead drug now is developed is, uh, improving metabolic fitness. And senior dogs is a very like robust way. Like if you've ever intermittent fast or calorically restricted, that's a way to improve your metabolic fitness. Um, metformin just does that as a drug. It's an old diabetes drug, but yeah, it has a bunch of like stomach side effects. And also just when you give any drug for a long time, bad things can happen.

• 2:09:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, there's also, it can't, if somebody were to reclassify it as a, there's no incentive to reclassify metformin as a longevity drug because it's off patent, right?

• 2:09:26Speaker 04

  Exactly. No one makes money off it.

• 2:09:28Jordi Hays?

  I didn't know that. Cause I was, cause there's a, there's a lot of, uh, it's debated, right? But there's a lot of evidence that like aspirin, it could, could be potentially beneficial for lifespan, but nobody would do the work to reclassify it because it's off patent. And you could, you could go and you could spend a billion dollars proving that it works. And then everybody could just make it. Yep.

• 2:09:47Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 2:09:47Jordi Hays?

  So.

• 2:09:48Speaker 04

  Yep. And this, this is like, um, a niche thing that actually.

• 2:09:51Jordi Hays?

  And so you can't even market aspirin as. No, no, it's not, it's not viable legal claim. Yeah.

• 2:09:56Speaker 04

  No, no. And this is a niche reason why loyal, it made a lot of sense and why I was like, okay, I guess I'm going to go and do this. Is you're 100, you have this catch 22 when you're trying to develop a human longevity drug, which is you need something that has a ton of safety, both acutely, right? So you took like five of them, nothing bad's going to happen, but also over a period of time.

• 2:10:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:10:15Speaker 04

  Right? If I give it to you for a decade, is it going to increase your risk of colon cancer? Or some, the only way you know that is by giving it to that person for a decade. By the time you have done that, the drug is generic. One of the really cool things about animal health is that you actually, the FDA tries to incentivize people to develop and prove that new drugs work for animal medicine. So you actually can get 10 years of exclusivity from the FDA.

• 2:10:37John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:10:37Speaker 04

  If you develop a novel, a generic drug for a novel use case.

• 2:10:41John Coogan?

  Oh, interesting.

• 2:10:42Speaker 04

  So we have actually both. We have in-licensed human drugs. We have generic drugs. But it means that you are able to go in and say, look, this might not work, but it's not going to do any harm. And that's so important when you're trying to create regulatory pathways, when you're trying to convince veterinarians to prescribe something that's never existed before, to convince the dog owners to do something they've never done before, to be able to say wholeheartedly, there's decades of data and we don't think this drug's going to do any harm. That helps.

• 2:11:07Jordi Hays?

  Are you guys getting, feeling any acceleration from various AI models? It seems like we have people on the show every week that are building AI for science, AI for drug development and foundation models dedicated to it. And yet you're here, you haven't said AI once.

• 2:11:26Speaker 04

  I have not said AI once. And this was so funny. It was a meta point. We were like working on like loyal narrative stuff. And I was like, should I just like let go of my ego and like have an AI story? And I was like, there's like, anyhow, there's, there's no AI in the loyal story. But like, I really debated it because I was like, man, I wonder if this would like increase my valuation by like a factor of two.

• 2:11:45John Coogan?

  What about ELS?

• 2:11:46Jordi Hays?

  And that would be good for dogs and that would be good for horses and that would be good for humans. No, but that's saying something that you're actively doing all of this drug development. And meanwhile, there's companies coming out and they're making the claim, at least to investors, that they're going to be able to, you know, speed up drug development, do it more efficiently, et cetera.

• 2:12:07Speaker 04

  So, I mean, so here's the problem.

• 2:12:09Jordi Hays?

  Because I'm sure you've tried to figure out how do we, how do we unlock value here?

• 2:12:13Speaker 04

  Yeah. So here's the problem with AI for drug development is I'm like, I'm not an AI person. But like, I am like, in terms of like technically trained, but I am, you know, sure the models are good enough that we gave them biological data. They could infer things that human scientists couldn't. The problem is, we don't have those data sets. Like, they, they don't exist for a human. I can't like say, okay, here's like your model. And if I give you the drug, how is it going to react in this part of your body, that part of your body? How is it going to like, get reduced over time? How is it going to interact with this other drug you're on? We just don't have those data sets.

• 2:12:45John Coogan?

  Yeah, we saw this with AlphaFold. Like AlphaFold came out, protein folding solved. It turned, the biotech markets didn't really move because it turns out that Actually solving protein folding problems is like 0.1% of the job to do to get a new drug to market. You gotta recruit patients and then monitor them and then talk to the FDA and do legal work.

• 2:13:03Speaker 04

  Designed to clinical trials.

• 2:13:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, there's so much more to do.

• 2:13:05Speaker 04

  You know, like our big longevity study that we're running in dogs right now. I think the biggest risk is actually operational. It's data quality. It's dogs not dropping out. It's veterinarians complying, right? Like, the biggest reason this study would fail is that if we have to throw out a bunch of data in five years because it doesn't adhere to the standards that are necessary, right? So there's some interesting AI companies for like the beginnings of drug development. Like Chai Discovery is one that's trying to do basically better antibody binding design. That's smart. I think that makes a lot of sense. But, I mean, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think there hasn't been like a moonshot for the bio data gathering on the clinical side that would be necessary to like model you and see what works.

• 2:13:49Jordi Hays?

  Well, it's not a good, yeah, it's.

• 2:13:50Speaker 04

  It's not a business.

• 2:13:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's not a business. You're taking a, even if somebody was able to raise a billion dollars with the idea, it's like, would they, would they come to you and be like, what do you need? And then they'd be like a services provider to like.

• 2:14:02Speaker 04

  Yeah, and that's the hard thing. Like, so we're building all these biobanks out. And so we're gonna have, you know, potentially one of the best data sets of translational aging in a species that's the best model of humans that isn't humans. And so maybe we'll be able to do it from then. But like, I would, I would feel disingenuous for me to say like, yeah, that's the strategy because it's like no one knows. Like biology is like the ultimate black box and it's the ultimate humbler, honestly.

• 2:14:28John Coogan?

  What about peptides? Are dogs on Ozempic yet? Are dogs on Ozempic?

• 2:14:33Speaker 04

  Actually, so this is my favorite fun fact. Everyone is like, oh, are you just developing like Ozempic for dogs? And the answer is no, because people don't want their dog to not be hungry. Think about it, right? You go home, your dog's super excited to see you, jumps on you. You're like, oh, my dog loves me so much. I'm the alpha male. Your dog's probably hungry.

• 2:14:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:14:52Speaker 04

  Right? And so when people give their dog Ozempic or Ozempic-like drugs.

• 2:14:56Jordi Hays?

  It just takes all the joy.

• 2:14:57Speaker 04

  It takes all the joy.

• 2:14:58John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah, he's a grumpy dog.

• 2:14:59Speaker 04

  The dog becomes a cat.

• 2:15:00John Coogan?

  Oh, no.

• 2:15:01Jordi Hays?

  Wow.

• 2:15:02Speaker 04

  No, this actually existed before.

• 2:15:03Jordi Hays?

  My most cherished memories with my dogs growing up, it was like. My dad, my brother and I making scrambled eggs for the dogs.

• 2:15:12Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:12Jordi Hays?

  It's like that was peak, peak, uh, peak experience as like a, you know, 10 year old.

• 2:15:17Speaker 04

  No, totally. Um, it's a, it's not a, not a good market. So like our other drug that's working on metabolic fitness to extend lifespan, which is very similar to how Ozempic works. Um, it is targeting, you know, improving metabolic fitness, but it's a, we make sure explicitly that the mechanism that we're hitting doesn't impact appetites and doesn't impact, um, like, uh, weight in general.

• 2:15:39John Coogan?

  Uh, any book recommendations for us?

• 2:15:42Speaker 04

  That's cute that you think I have time to read as a, uh,

• 2:15:44John Coogan?

  Any, uh, movie recommendations? Must Love Dogs. What you got for us?

• 2:15:48Speaker 04

  You know, I, I watched Love is Blind, France last night.

• 2:15:51John Coogan?

  Okay, Love is Blind.

• 2:15:53Jordi Hays?

  Really trying to turn off.

• 2:15:54Speaker 04

  I'm sorry. I, you know, I, you know, I want to be one of those like CEOs. I'm like, these are the esoteric, high intellectual books I'm reading that like show that I'm smarter than you. What? No, there's, there's no shade.

• 2:16:08Jordi Hays?

  I was reading a book that there's only one copy. It's thousands of years old.

• 2:16:12John Coogan?

  It's a rare PDF. You don't have access to it.

• 2:16:15Speaker 04

  It's English, but you wouldn't, you wouldn't understand.

• 2:16:16Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:16:17Speaker 04

  But like honestly, like loyal is my all day, every day. Like I don't have.

• 2:16:21John Coogan?

  What's the general routine like at Loyal for you?

• 2:16:24Speaker 04

  So we're actually fully remote.

• 2:16:25John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:16:26Speaker 04

  Um, which I know, contrarian, contrarian. Um, but it actually works well because we have to hire people. We have to hire the best possible person for each skillset we need. And often those people are not, actually they're almost never in the Bay area. I'm going to St. Louis after this. That's where we have a lot of team members. Uh, we have a lot of team members in Kansas. We have them in Florida, right? And so it, you get so much more benefit from hiring the right person for the right role than you do saying, I'm going to hire the second or third best person, but they're willing to move to SF, right?

• 2:16:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:16:56Speaker 04

  So for me, I actually just like live at coffee shops. Um, I, uh, sit out of some of our investors' offices, bring my dog. Uh, maybe one day, whenever I'm able to fly private, I'll bring my dog.

• 2:17:07John Coogan?

  Isn't Antonio Gracias the one with the two nufis?

• 2:17:11Speaker 04

  No.

• 2:17:11John Coogan?

  Okay. Cause.

• 2:17:12Speaker 04

  No, he does have a cute dog though, or his, uh, his partner does.

• 2:17:15John Coogan?

  Cause it's, it says you raised from Valor.

• 2:17:17Speaker 04

  I did raise from Valor.

• 2:17:18John Coogan?

  We gotta hit the gong for you. Thank you so much.

• 2:17:20Speaker 04

  We're hitting the gong for me.

• 2:17:21John Coogan?

  Of course. I mean.

• 2:17:22Jordi Hays?

  And all the dogs.

• 2:17:23John Coogan?

  And all the dogs.

• 2:17:24Jordi Hays?

  Currently in, getting studied.

• 2:17:28Jordi Hays?

  What's the next big milestone that people should be looking out for?

• 2:17:32Speaker 04

  The next big milestone? I mean, we're just trying to bring this damn drug to market. Honestly, like, that's a big one. Hopefully in the next year or so. I mean, pray for us. It's like, the hard stuff's behind us. But, there's a lot of hard stuff in front of us, too. So...

• 2:17:47John Coogan?

  Well, good luck.

• 2:17:48Jordi Hays?

  Cop between hard stuff, as every entrepreneur is.

• 2:17:52Speaker 04

  It's a worthwhile goal.

• 2:17:53Jordi Hays?

  Anyways, well, I think we can close out the show with you, because we actually have to hit the road.

• 2:17:58John Coogan?

  Well, first, we gotta tell you about 8sleep.com.

• 2:18:01Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:18:01John Coogan?

  Get a Pod5. We gotta put the animals on the 8sleeps. You do have an 8sleep, that's great. We also gotta tell you about Bezel.

• 2:18:08Jordi Hays?

  Uh, no.

• 2:18:09John Coogan?

  If you want a watch for your dog, go to getbezel.com. Get him a Submariner.

• 2:18:15Jordi Hays?

  That's gonna extend life then.

• 2:18:16John Coogan?

  And if you wanna take your dog on a vacation, head over to Wander.

• 2:18:19Jordi Hays?

  There you go.

• 2:18:20John Coogan?

  Find your happy place. Book a Wander with inspiring views, hotel-grade amenities, dream bags, talk to your family.

• 2:18:25Jordi Hays?

  The chat says, "When can we buy loyal stock?" I'm assuming you can't answer that.

• 2:18:28Speaker 04

  We, uh, I...

• 2:18:29John Coogan?

  Gotta raise a fund.

• 2:18:30Speaker 04

  Is it an SEC something, something? Okay. Sorry, guys. Sorry, guys.

• 2:18:33John Coogan?

  Private company. Become a venture capitalist.

• 2:18:36Jordi Hays?

  Someday, in a very bright future, I'm sure.

• 2:18:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:18:39Jordi Hays?

  But thank you for tuning in with us today.

• 2:18:42John Coogan?

  Thank you for tuning in.

• 2:18:42Jordi Hays?

  We will be back tomorrow morning. I can't wait.

• 2:18:44John Coogan?

  See you tomorrow.

• 2:18:45Jordi Hays?

  And have a great afternoon.

• 2:18:46John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 2:18:46Jordi Hays?

  Love you. Bye.