E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview

*** PRODUCER'S NOTE: This is part two of E76. If you want to hear the besties break down Elon vs. Twitter, check out the previous episode. 0:00 Surprise part two! 1:03 Friedberg breaks down the global food crisis and predicts China's grand plan 9:27 Inflation: 8.5% CPI in March, potential causes, what the rest of 2022 might look like 18:22 Understanding French election results so far 23:08 All-In Summit update and preview Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/what-does-chinas-horn-of-africa-envoy-mean-for-its-non-intervention-principle/ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3169076/china-unites-somalia-against-growing-taiwanese-somaliland-ties https://allafrica.com/stories/202203190144.html https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3170851/ukraine-invasion-china-braces-effects-global-fertiliser https://www.economist.com/china/2022/04/09/when-china-worries-about-food-the-world-pays https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3173619/china-didnt-hoard-grains-stockpiling-ensure-domestic-food https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-march-2022-11649725215 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1485696010290491393 https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/world/europe/le-pen-nato-russia-germany.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/visa-mastercard-fees-will-hurt-consumers-sen-dick-durbin-says-11650046879 https://summit.allinpodcast.co/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jason Calacanis?

  All right, what? Oh, I'm doing this again? All right, listen, it's a two-parter. You listen to the first part, now this is the second part. Episode 76.5, if you will. This is our first ever two-parter, part two of our two-parter. You already listened to part one of episode 76, that's Elon and Twitter, lots of details there. And now, we're going to cover some more topics, including the global food crisis, China's plan to stockpile a bunch of food, geopolitics, wall around the horn, French election, Germany, etc. And then we'll go into details about a little bit of the drama and details, pageantry, parties, poker, all the good stuff of the All In Summit. Coming soon. Okay, enjoy the show, everybody. I'll see you on Monday.

• 1:00Jason Calacanis?

  There's still a war raging, but I wanted to get an update from Friedberg on the food crisis, which he predicted very early. Fertilizer prices are still climbing like crazy. There's been some food rioting in China, which I think is a separate issue. He'll educate us in a minute, Sri Lanka. So what is your theory of what we're going to do from here, Friedberg? Because I think we're all waiting for this shoe to drop, and I think you predicted this is something that we would experience into the fall and into next year. So when are we going to actually see these food riots occurring? And then does China's food riots have anything to do with this? Or does that have to do with they?

• 1:42David Friedberg?

  Yeah, I would put the Chinese food riots as kind of a separate localized supply chain problem related to the lockdowns.

• 1:48Jason Calacanis?

  Got it.

• 1:49David Friedberg?

  But we're definitely, you know, I think I mentioned last week, the USDA planting report showing in the US how acreage is being reduced on corn. And we're seeing this around the world, where acres are coming out of production, or less fertilizer is being used, which means less food is being made. So everything that we predicted, I mean, this is a slow train, a Titanic into the iceberg, that we're watching right now. And it's going to continue for nine to 18 months.

• 2:14David Friedberg?

  So, you know, one of the questions that people are now asking, which I said, you know, would become a really critical next step in this crisis, is how are we going to bridge the gap in calories? Where's the food going to come from? And how are we going to feed nations that are almost entirely dependent on imports, that are running out of food or are out of food? So I've mentioned this in the past, the whole world runs on a 90-day food supply, which means roughly 25% of the world's calories are in storage right now. But that's not the case uniformly. So some countries like Tunisia and Somalia, Ethiopia, have close to zero calories in storage. Some countries like the United States are roughly, you know, 30, 40% of our, you know, annual consumed calories are sitting in storage.

• 2:59David Friedberg?

  China is a complete outlier. For years, China has been stockpiling food. And at this point, China has 150% of their annual consumption of food in storage. So they have supplies that if all food production and imports stopped in China, they would be able to feed their population for one and a half years. That's an incredible supply of food. So if you look around the world to places like Sri Lanka and places like Somalia that are struggling to figure out how are we going to bridge this gap on calories that's about to hit us. Egypt's about four months of food, by the way, and Egypt is dwindling. They cannot get the food out of the Black Sea.

• 3:38David Friedberg?

  So China is going to be one of the very few potential solutions for bridging the calorie gap over the next year. And I have a strong prediction and a strong belief that because of that, China will use it to maximal leverage and we will see over the next year, an incredible amount of leverage and power being accumulated by China because of transactions that they're going to start to enter into to bridge the calorie gap around the world. So in the Horn of Africa, for example, there has been this continuous presence of China trying to give themselves a military base, trying to take some influence over local media. And there's been this kind of push and pull with, you know, certain populations around whether or not we should

• 4:23David Friedberg?

  Kind of embrace China locally. And I think that, for example, the, uh, the food crisis that we're seeing emerge in Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, is going to be resolved by China. And China is going to end up gaining influence, gaining military presence, and establishing a more permanent foothold in the Horn of Africa because of the position that they're in of strength with all these calories and the, and the need in these regions. And that's not just there. Sri Lanka, other parts of Southeast Asia, even Western Africa, Northern Africa. China's going to show up. And they're the only country that can show up. The UN, the World Food Programme, they're going to do everything they can to shuffle calories around, change food supplies.

• 5:05David Friedberg?

  But I do think that one of the things that everyone's going to be watching, and it's, it's a slow roll. This isn't going to be some one big deal and everyone wakes up. Over the next year, while the US is, you know, trying to do everything we can to maximally impose sanctions on Russia, China is slowly turning the crank around the world on the influence that they are going to gain because of this food crisis and the absolute, um, uh, you know, surplus that they have locally and the ability to export that surplus to support needs around the world. And it's not going to be free. It's not going to be cheap. So I, I thought it was worth highlighting what we're seeing. And I shared a couple of articles with you guys and with Nick, articles that no one is paying attention to. And this isn't some conspiratorial, oh my God, there's some dangerous thing happening.

• 5:48David Friedberg?

  I'm just pointing out one of the things that's happening as we talk about, you know, the great change in power, the shift in power globally that's happening. It is happening in a very significant way this year. Um, given the surplus that China has, the dearth that many countries have, and the inability for the US to, to really adequately respond to the food crisis that, that's emerging. Um, and so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's attention. There's a lot of little articles that, that support this point. I shared them with you guys. You guys can put them in the show notes and, and put them up on YouTube and whatever. Um, but I think this is going to become a macro trend that we're going to wake up to in six to nine months and be like, whoa, what the heck happened? How, you know, how, how did China get so much leverage around the world? And, and it's, it's starting now.

• 6:30David Sacks?

  That's what happens with every war. You know, we all, we go in hot, you know, we, you know, rah rah, we're all gung ho. And then at some point in time, we're like, wait a second, why do we do that? You know?

• 6:43David Sacks?

  And you know, and look, there's no shortage of neo cons and liberal interventionists who are all saying this war is wonderful for us because it's reunited the American alliance and the Western alliance and that this has been this war is a good thing for us. Let's keep it going. Let's bleed Russia. Let's topple Putin. Let's destabilize the regime. They're in favor of protracted conflict that I've been, you know, warning against. And what Friedberg is saying is the longer this conflict goes on, the more of these disastrous scenarios are going to materialize.

• 7:16Jason Calacanis?

  What do you, what is your take on how crippled Putin is right now, David? Just objectively? And again, you're not a fan of Putin.

• 7:24David Sacks?

  Listen, yeah, look, I don't have any.

• 7:26Jason Calacanis?

  But he's just lost a ship. Like, I mean, this does not look good for him. It feels like he can't, and he's losing all his tanks. I mean, this seems like a crazy outcome.

• 7:35David Sacks?

  I don't know anything you don't know in terms of, you know, I'm just a consumer of information. But I tend to think that we are overly optimistic in the West. And look, the war has clearly gone very bad for Putin. But this idea that everything, that magically we're going to get regime change in Moscow, we're going to get Gorbachev 2.0, that that is, that is an objective worth protracting this war for, I tend to think it's going to be a mistake. I mean, that's now, doesn't mean I support Russia's invasion. I've said it's illegal. It's a crime. It's a violation of international law. It's a humanitarian disaster. But what I've supported is a, is a negotiated peace, a settlement that we try to get as quickly as possible. That is clearly not the administration's

• 8:20David Sacks?

  position on this. They want to keep this thing going. And, you know, this idea that a long war is good for America's alliances, I would disagree with that because you're already seeing all over the world now, people are starting to object to American policy. You saw it with India. And India is the world's largest democracy. They should be on our side. They definitely should not be on China's side because they have a huge latent tension. But China and India are both de facto on Russia's side on this. Africa and large parts of Latin America.

• 8:52Jason Calacanis?

  Well, India would like to have oil.

• 8:55David Sacks?

  They would like to maintain their relationship with Russia and they did not support the denunciation of Russia. They would like to see this conflict end. Large parts of Africa would like to see it end, Latin America. Basically, all the victims, if there's a famine in the world in six months, like Friedberg is saying, they are all very worried about this. All of them have expressed concern with the American policy, which seems to be to retract this war.

• 9:19Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, and Friedberg, you have to go do your talk at Berkeley. Congratulations, and we'll see you next time. Thanks for the contribution. Chamath, any thoughts on the CPI? We set a record that seemed to have gotten lost in the haze of Twitter.

• 9:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I learned something really interesting that I just wanted to share with you guys. So there was a big CPI print, obviously, but there was a report, probably not many people read it, but it was about home equity. And the takeaway was that since 2020, Americans have taken 430, I think the exact number is 427, $427 billion of home equity out of their homes and effectively spent it. So what it started to make me think about was if you look at all of that home equity, plus the STEMI checks, plus the unemployment insurance checks, that starts to explain, I think, why the labor markets are so tight and why people

• 10:17Chamath Palihapitiya?

  haven't gone back to work. There is no motivation because there's just so much money sloshing around for them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this stuff that they don't want to anymore. And I think the thing to keep in mind is like, that's also what's gone into the stock market. It's also what's driven up the price of used cars, new cars, all of this stuff. I just think that kind of like starts to paint a picture of CPI that's really important, which is that it's probably a little bit more transitory than we may actually think, because when you exhaust all of that extra money that's

• 10:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  There's not as much inflation to be had, and I think most people are now forecasting that inflation is really going to taper off. And the big warning sign that everybody is sort of, you know, marching towards is, you know, too many excessive rate hikes between now and the end of the year could actually push us into a real recession. And we were talking about that before, but the probability is now sort of like one in three. Whereas before, I think, you know, David and I sounded a little bit crazy when we were talking about it. So I just wanted to put that out there as something I learned this week that I thought was really important.

• 11:28Jason Calacanis?

  The labor participation rate peaked at 67, 68%.

• 11:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But half a trillion dollars of home equity. I mean, half a trillion dollars of actual spending in the economy, that's a ton of money to be absorbed.

• 11:40Jason Calacanis?

  Right. If people have a couple of hundred grand in their bank account who own homes or whatever, there's no need to go back to a job. And if you don't feel safe because you maybe still have some COVID fears, you don't want to commute, or you're just out of the rhythm for two years, and you're like, ah, I'm kind of enjoying skiing or whatever you're doing, whatever your jam is, maybe there's no, there's no rush to get back.

• 11:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You'll wait until you, you'll wait until you exhaust all of that money.

• 12:04Jason Calacanis?

  This is a, and then we're not, as we talked about, we're not letting people into the country at the same time. So you still have 10 million job openings.

• 12:12Jason Calacanis?

  If that flips, that would be economic activity that would be helpful in fighting, fighting against a recession, correct?

• 12:22Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I mean, I, I think that, that we're probably going to have a quarter or two contraction. It, it, it's probably going to happen at sort of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year. Just the real question is how, how high are rates between now and then? And again, I think the setup isn't very good, which is that the investors in the stock market are playing chicken with the Fed. And, you know, they're just at the beginning of a rate cycle and they haven't been able to impact any real forms of liquidity in the equity market. And so I think they're gonna, they're gonna, they're going to attack that. And the only blunt force instrument they have is rates. And so, you know, you could see rates at three, three and a half percent. And that's going to impact a lot of stuff.

• 13:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And the problem is that, you know, uh, it's going to be after the economy has slowed down because it's going to be after a lot of these.

• 13:15Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You know, fake savings, if you will, have been depleted.

• 13:18Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, well, we're seeing some pressure come off as well. The car shortage is kind of ending. And wages have raised, so that it seems like they're in this, you know, confluence of events, certain things are starting to work themselves out. Are you?

• 13:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Hey, can I tell you something else? I was, I was in Washington this week. The number of people that listen to our pod, it is incredible.

• 13:41David Sacks?

  Ah, that's interesting. Yeah.

• 13:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Incredible.

• 13:43David Sacks?

  People in Washington care about our views on politics.

• 13:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's incredible.

• 13:46David Sacks?

  Cause I've heard that feedback too.

• 13:48Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, it's really, really, really special. We've, we've stumbled into something pretty cool. And the fact that it's like must, it's, it's, it's, uh, it's must listening. It's must listen.

• 13:57Jason Calacanis?

  It's like a Sunday weekly show. You just get a different perspective from the tech sector and capital allocators that maybe you don't get on us, you know, meet the press or something.

• 14:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 14:06David Sacks?

  But just to follow up on that inflation point, the economic point, Jason, if I can, so.

• 14:10Jason Calacanis?

  Please.

• 14:12David Sacks?

  So look, the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis. And you remember about a year ago is when inflation started, but you know, around this time last year, inflation was only two and a half percent. Then it reached 5% by the summer. Then by the end of the year was almost 8%. So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against a 7.8% number last year. So I don't think inflation is going to get any better. We're probably looking at roughly a 12%, you know, official two-year inflation number. So in other words, since Biden took over as president, you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI.

• 14:55David Sacks?

  And that is why, even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation. You can almost predict that Jen Psaki or whoever replaces her at the podium at the White House briefing room, they're going to be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year, but it doesn't mean price levels will have decreased. Prices will still be very high. When people go to the grocery store, they buy meat or bread or what have you. It's going to be very expensive and I don't think people are going to be feeling better off. And there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration.

• 15:30Jason Calacanis?

  And also I think it's going to impact consumption. I mean, if you're going to a gas station and you, I mean, I drove the minivan to LA. And it's the only electric, it's only non-electric car we have. We happen to drive it because we had a number of people that was bigger than the X. And it was like shocking to buy $7 gasoline. And obviously, I can withstand, you know, filling up, but I could see people saying, you know what? Maybe I'm not going to make that incremental trip. Or, you know, you start looking at some of the prices, you know, for taking a trip or flights. I don't know if you've looked at flights or hotels. Like, things are starting to creep up that it's like super noticeable. And that's got to affect consumption. And then that would be what would be part of those negative two quarters, right,

• 16:14Jason Calacanis?

  Chamath? I mean, the role of people stopping, consuming, and just saying, you know what? Eh, it's too expensive right now. Just, I'll stay at home and watch Netflix. Fuck it. You know, I'll cook pasta tonight.

• 16:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You see that happening already.

• 16:27Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, people are starting to balance the balance sheet, just looking at the balance sheet and saying, you know what? What's a way I can, you know, cut some expensive items off the, you know, I'll ride a bike.

• 16:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  They're going to take less travel because, you know, the cost of airline tickets have gone up because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up. It all, it all ripples through the economy. But I think the thing is that when, when the Fed gets involved, though, they get involved in, you know, in a brute force way.

• 16:51David Sacks?

  Let me make a prediction right now. If we're, we're definitely headed into an economic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high-

• 16:58Jason Calacanis?

  Two negative quarters of growth.

• 16:59David Sacks?

  Yes, exactly. So, you know, very high chance, I think, of recession, like Chamath said, towards the end of the year. If this war is still going on and we get in a recession, look out below. I think this president will be in Jimmy Carter territory. He began the year at 38%. That was in reasonably good conditions of peacetime. If, you know, and I tweeted at the beginning of the year, in January, I said that, you know, this is, you know, you're at 38%. That's with peace and prosperity. Look out below if we get recession or war. That's what it's looking like right now. So, you know, I think this is, things are looking pretty, pretty dire, which is why I keep saying it, you know, the policy of this administration should be to try and find a settlement to the

• 17:39David Sacks?

  situation in Ukraine, to this war. I know that we didn't start it. Putin started it. Let's be clear. But if there's an off-ramp here, we should be seizing it because we got real problems back home in America. And the administration should be focused on our economy and our problems.

• 17:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely and I think there's a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric to kind of, you know, find a way to end what's going on over there because they're going to see a pretty meaningful recession, I think.

• 18:19David Sacks?

  Yeah, absolutely.

• 18:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Much more, much more so than we will.

• 18:21David Sacks?

  Yeah, and if you look, if you look right now, what's happening in France, Marine Le Pen is surging.

• 18:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Unbelievable.

• 18:27David Sacks?

  Against Macron. I don't know if she's going to pull off the upset, but one of the major pillar, well, actually, here's what she's running on. She is saying that she has been focused on inflation and cost of living, and she says Macron has been distracted by being America's basically lapdog puppet, whatever, on Ukraine. So she's saying, we need to focus on the French economy. And she's also saying that we, as France, should set our own following policy and not be so deferential to the US. She says that this protracted war in Ukraine and all this hot rhetoric coming out of the Biden administration about war crimes and destabilizing Putin and toppling him and putting him on trial at the Hague, that is not in French interests. That's what the Americans want to do, but it's not what we should be wanting to do. We need to end this war. And I'm not ready

• 19:11David Sacks?

  to say she's going to pull off the upset yet, but she is clearly articulating that message because she is finding purchase with the French electorate based on that message. And you're going to hear that if this war continues for three months and six months and Europe goes into recession, you're going to start hearing politicians all over the European continent saying the same thing and questioning American leadership. And why are they are dragging this thing out?

• 19:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The, the thing that's the scariest thing about the French election, and I'm not sure how many Americans paid attention to it, but just to maybe summarize in a very quick nutshell, you actually had this really interesting dynamic of three candidates. One was what would be considered far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, one far right, Marine Le Pen, and then one that was very centrist, Emmanuel Macron. And what's crazy is both of these two were, you know, 22 plus percent of all of the votes. It was just that Le Pen and Macron were one and two. And so they go into a runoff election and, you know, Mélenchon

• 20:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  was very clear. He was like, under no circumstance should any of my supporters vote for Le Pen.

• 20:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But it just shows you what's happening, which is like France, which is, you know, sort of coming undone under this populist fight, is probably a canary in the coalmine for how this stuff could play out in other places, and it's kind of scary.

• 20:39Jason Calacanis?

  It'd be interesting to see what happens in Germany as well, as they look at this enabling of Putin.

• 20:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  They were able to hold the line. They, you know, they still have a center-right government. But, you know, in Austria for a while, that wasn't the case. In Hungary, it's not really the case. So there's a lot of countries, at least in the Eastern Bloc of Europe, where you've seen a tip in one direction or the other. It's not unreasonable to think that in France it could tip in one direction or the other. Fortunately, in the UK, or unfortunately, however you look at it, it's still really a two-party system, for the most part, I think. So, I don't know, we're in a really precarious moment in world history, I think.

• 21:18Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 21:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, I want to talk about one thing that I talked, at the end of last year, I talked about, just a very random thing, about, you know, Visa and Mastercard, and how you could short them, or, you know, like, basically, like, the payment networks, we're gonna start to get, you know, dismantled this year. It's really interesting to see, I don't know if you guys have been really paying attention, to all the activity that's been happening in payments over, like, the last, literally 90 days, I think has been really incredible, up until, you know, just today, you know, Visa and Mastercard, I think, are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a duopoly, which is raising prices, especially into an inflationary moment, which just lacks complete knowledge and sensitivity of the moment.

• 22:05Jason Calacanis?

  So dampen economic activity.

• 22:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But also creates the incentives for disruption.

• 22:10Jason Calacanis?

  Sure.

• 22:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Right? Because then the gap between you and your next clear as competitor becomes more obvious. And again, in capitalism, you compete away these advantages. And I just think that the setup is becoming more and more obvious for the shift in payments. I just think it's quite interesting. So Dick Durbin, actually, today, basically, is gonna create a big, you know, hubbub in the Senate around these increasing merchant fees, which will eventually spill over to consumers.

• 22:34Chamath Palihapitiya?

  There's some talk that, you know, uh, I, I, what is it called? Zelli? Uh, is that how you pronounce it? Zelli, the, the, the, the interbank payment system. People are talking about them converting that to becoming a more substantive payment system. And then this week, I was able to see a little bit under the hood of, you know, Solana Pay. And that's really exciting. So it's all coming, I think, like, uh, it's like a swarm of activity, uh, to dismantle these payments businesses. I just wanted to just give the 90 day update from our, from our discussion in January.

• 23:07Jason Calacanis?

  All right, everybody. Uh, we will see you May 15th, 16th, and 17th in Miami for the first All In Summit, now sold out. No more tickets available. There's a waitlist, but we're not going to be able to get to anybody on it. Sorry, you can sign up and we'll make sure you know about next year. If there is a next year, this might be a one and done kind of situation. Three amazing parties. Sunday night is our poker tournament for charity. The top, uh, it's gonna be a sit and go format. If you win your sit and go, you go into a sit and go bake off, and then you get to sit at the final table with the four besties. The winners are gonna get to make a donation to the charity of their choice, uh, paid for by the besties. And, uh, Sunday night's party will be the Goodfellas party. Monday's gonna be the Havana White Party. Bring your linen sacks. I know you got a whole closet full down there. And then, uh, Tuesday nights are

• 23:52Jason Calacanis?

  Miami Vice Party. Here are the mockups of the invites.

• 23:56David Sacks?

  This is the first time I'm seeing it.

• 23:58Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, me too. Just a little reveal. There, there's a lot of work. The copy I didn't write. We're workshopping it. It's just, we, we got a little, uh, what do they call that? Like a mood board? It's a little bit of a mood board. Here's your, uh, wet your beaks party for Sunday night. It's gonna be a Goodfellas theme. Should be a lot of fun.

• 24:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  This is like, it looks like Goodfellas.

• 24:16Jason Calacanis?

  It looks like Goodfellas. We're gonna keep working on it. Uh, wet your beaks probably not gonna be the name of your party, but that's Sunday night. And then next up is our Havana White Party.

• 24:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Wow. Despite all the shit you take, uh, you do such a good job with this shit, I gotta say.

• 24:30Jason Calacanis?

  Thank you. And then we're gonna have our Buena Vista Social Club.

• 24:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I apologize, but I think this is complete dog shit, this one. The first one.

• 24:37Jason Calacanis?

  It's supposed to be Buena Vista Social Club. You're just a heathen. You never saw that.

• 24:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The first one is so good. This is horrendous. Well, I don't even know, what is this picture of?

• 24:44Jason Calacanis?

  It's, it's a, it's a theme on the Buena Vista Social Club. It's, it's not the right image, but we're workshopping it, like I said, but that's gonna be a Havana White Party. Everybody's gonna wear linens on Monday night, and it's gonna be at a beautiful space. Yeah, like I said, this is just a designer coming up with ideas. And then, of course, we're going to have our Miami Vice. We're going to rent a couple of, um,

• 25:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, that I like.

• 25:04Jason Calacanis?

  Miami Ventures. And so there we are. And so that should be our at 420 Bitcoin Street. Your best eighties dress for Miami Ventures. So it's gonna be three parties.

• 25:14David Sacks?

  That is, uh, that's hot.

• 25:16Jason Calacanis?

  I think it's gonna be a three great parties. You have to, but everybody's gonna have to get three great outfits. So linens are easy Monday night.

• 25:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Jake, Jake, your, your thighs look really big in this photo.

• 25:26Jason Calacanis?

  Well, this is fat, Jake Al. This is not 167 Jake Al. This is 198 Jake Al.

• 25:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  On your left leg. You can't tell where your bottom part of the leg stops where your knee is.

• 25:38Jason Calacanis?

  Sitting in a stool in that picture they got, but yeah.

• 25:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  But it's like you have no knee. It's just like one big shank, like pork shoulder.

• 25:44Jason Calacanis?

  Well, you know what? It's when you're fat and you got fat suits, you know, everything's. Uh, listen, I've been looking at pictures of myself. Why didn't you guys fat shape me more? That's the question I have. You guys should have been just on.

• 25:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You, you, you really look incredible. And then yesterday, when I saw you, I was like, holy shit. This guy looks really fantastic. Look, there's no knee there. It's just.

• 26:02Jason Calacanis?

  There's no knee.

• 26:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's like shank. It's like big shank.

• 26:04Jason Calacanis?

  You know what? When you're a fat guy, you get fat suits. You just try to, you know, and now I'm having to re-bought. Look at that fat face. Oh my God. Zoom out.

• 26:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh my God.

• 26:13Jason Calacanis?

  Zoom out, zoom out. Look terrible. Flat hair. Now, Sacks looking nice.

• 26:17Chamath Palihapitiya?

  No, you look good.

• 26:18David Sacks?

  I look fabulous. Let's go with this one. Let's go with this.

• 26:21Jason Calacanis?

  You look great. We're gonna redo mine. I want all the photos done of Vin J Cal for the inspiration. Don't, no double chin. What are you doing? You work for me. Don't fuck. You're killing me. Where's, where's my neck? Now I got a neck again. I found my neck, everybody. There you have it, folks. So, uh, I'm sorry if you did not get into the All In Summit, but we've got a great lineup of speakers and events planned. No press because, well, we have the same distribution, but we will, the press will be able to see all the talks. So all the talks will come out post-event on the All In feed. So for the 10 days after the All In feed, you're gonna get a show every day.

• 26:57David Sacks?

  And who are confirmed speakers at this point?

• 26:59Jason Calacanis?

  Oh my Lord, so many good ones. Hold on, let me pull it up here. Keith Raboy. Palmer Lucky is coming.

• 27:06David Sacks?

  Oh, good. So that's confirmed. That's awesome.

• 27:08Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, we got that confirmed. He's a big fan of Saxy Poo. The new website's up, by the way, and it looks beautiful.

• 27:13David Sacks?

  Oh, wow. Look at this.

• 27:15Jason Calacanis?

  So we have Ryan Peterson, Nate Silver, Brad Gersner, Claire Vickel, who is amazing, Mar Hershon, Palmer Lucky, Keith Raboy, Joe Lott.

• 27:26David Sacks?

  Oh, you got Antonio to want to speak.

• 27:27Jason Calacanis?

  Antonio is now coming out of a shell. Antonio Mercia Martinez. I mean, these are Adina.

• 27:34David Sacks?

  You should get, we should get some foreign policy folks, too.

• 27:37Jason Calacanis?

  I mean, well, if you guys wanted to do any fucking work, you could help me out here.

• 27:43David Sacks?

  I thought this was just a grift you were doing. I didn't know it was serious. Now, I may have to help.

• 27:47Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, no, you're going to be proud of this. Well, here's the thing that I'm going to be most proud of is the format. I have come up with a new concept of a format. I came up with a theme question that people can choose to answer or not, but the problem I want to solve. And it could be the problem I most want to solve. It could be the problem I want to see solved, the problem I'm thinking about. People will go up, in most cases, and give a 10 to 20 minute, call it a TED style talk, a solo dolo talk, where they kind of talk about what they're working on in their lives. Then they come and sit in a chair with two besties on either side. And then the four of us engage them in a conversation. While we're talking, we're going to have maybe five slides that producers will put together of data points, etc. So we all get educated. We pull up the slide.

• 28:30Jason Calacanis?

  And then there'll be, you know, 600 people in the auditorium, 100 people in the simulcast room. We will take one question from the audience or two questions if we have time with each segment. And so you're going to get a lot of bestie action, but stimulated by bestie guestie positions. And I think this is really what folks want. Now, if somebody doesn't want to give one, let's say Palmer just wants to talk. Well, we'll just talk with Palmer. And so there's going to be an option. I told people you could, your position paper, your position statement could be five minutes, it could be 20. So.

• 29:01Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I want to do something on natural resource scarcity and national security. So Jim Latinsky, the CEO of MP Materials.

• 29:10Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. You just, all you got to do is email me the person's email address or introduce me and we'll set it up.

• 29:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So we'll do something on like the supply chain of like rare earths and lithium nickel.

• 29:17Jason Calacanis?

  And so, and then here's my other idea. So I told everybody.

• 29:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So that the problem I'd like to solve there is energy independence for America.

• 29:24Jason Calacanis?

  Perfect. So then.

• 29:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Do I still need to email you now?

• 29:28Jason Calacanis?

  Just email me, but here's the thing we're doing. I told everybody-

• 29:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I just told you the-

• 29:32Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, we have it. Nick will take a note.

• 29:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah.

• 29:34Jason Calacanis?

  Um, to remind you, um, to get the email addressed. Here's what's gonna happen-

• 29:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, so you don't need me to email you?

• 29:39Jason Calacanis?

  Uh, I mean, we don't want to guess the email if you have it and you know them. I mean, I know you want to do the least amount of work, but I need to get a producer's fee here. I don't know. You guys got to outvote Friedberg. Putting that aside.

• 29:49David Sacks?

  I'm fine with that.

• 29:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'm fine with that, too.

• 29:51Jason Calacanis?

  Thank you. Then three, because that's how all-in media is working now. It's just gonna be votes.

• 29:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Well, why don't you sign the LLC agreement?

• 29:57Jason Calacanis?

  Did anybody sign it yet? I was gonna review it to see what fucking poison pill Friedberg put in there. I'm not signing this shit till I have two lawyers look it over. Friedberg's got a poison pill in there.

• 30:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I don't know about you guys, but I just sign any random docu-sign that I'm given.

• 30:09Jason Calacanis?

  I just assume-

• 30:10David Sacks?

  You know, I want to get to speak.

• 30:12Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, here we go. Now, in the last thirty days.

• 30:15David Sacks?

  Yeah, so I'd like to get, I'd like to get Professor John Mearsheimer to speak. He's a-

• 30:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That'd be great.

• 30:20David Sacks?

  Yeah, he's a professor at the University of Chicago. He's been there forty years. He's the leading he's a leading theorist, you could say, of the school of thought called realism.

• 30:31Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, yeah.

• 30:31David Sacks?

  Uh, in, in foreign policy. And he has a track record of being right about all of America's foreign policy.

• 30:38Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, wait, this is the guy you shared the video with, right?

• 30:40David Sacks?

  Yeah.

• 30:41Jason Calacanis?

  He's the guy who talked about the duopoly. What do they call that? The mono, dual, tri-

• 30:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Mono-nucleosis.

• 30:50Jason Calacanis?

  Multipolar, unipolar, when the United States was-

• 30:52David Sacks?

  He has a critique, he has a critique of liberal interventionism, which has been the dominant-

• 30:57Jason Calacanis?

  Fantastic.

• 30:57David Sacks?

  -foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It's what got us into Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya. He predicted all those things to be fiascos. He also predicted that our policy of constructive engagement towards China would ultimately backfire and be a disaster. And he has a very contrarian critique right now of our policy in Ukraine that's gotten viral-

• 31:17Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 31:17David Sacks?

  On Twitter, and it's gotten like ten million plus views. He'd be an incredible person to, to come speak.

• 31:24Jason Calacanis?

  Well, here's what's happened. While we invite people, you know, we, we invite some people. They don't know the show. We knew other people and they're like, oh my God, I love the show. I'm there. What, what's gonna be interesting is the next thirty days, we're gonna talk to each person about what they, what topic they really wanna, you know, double-click on. And then we're gonna pair people. So you might have Keith Raboy and Antonio, you know, you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale or whatever. And so hopefully we can find a little dynamic. Maybe people don't agree. Maybe they have, you know, opposite positions. And then we're going to then have this great Socratic dialogue with everybody. And I think it's going to be a very fast paced type thing. And then hopefully the speakers sit in the VIP area. And then I'm gonna have a runner there with a microphone, or I might

• 32:07Jason Calacanis?

  do it myself. So, you know, I might have Keith Raboy on in the morning, in the afternoon, he might want to chime in on Joe Lonsdale's talk. I run up to him with a microphone, etc. So, uh, we got probably, we're gonna do two hours in the morning, three hours in the afternoon. So it's 10 to 12. So you can sleep in or come for coffee if we stay late playing poker every night. It's gonna be a gentle wake up. 12 to 2 is a nice lunch, healthy. 3 to 5, nice con, I'm sorry, 2 to 5, 3 hours of nice content. Then you get a little break, you go to the parties. At the end of the parties, you never know, a poker table or two might be pulled out and we play a little cash game. Who knows? Anything's possible. So poker could be all three nights. I don't know. You know, this depends on the degeneracy level. Um, but I think it's gonna be a fun time. I'm just asking, nobody go

• 32:51Jason Calacanis?

  ham on Sunday or Monday night, please. Tuesday night, you wanna have a little extracurricular, you wanna go a little late, Davey, Chamath, that's fine. But Va Ben, va Ben, va Ben. I want everybody in bed by midnight, Sunday night and Monday night. No crazy.

• 33:08David Sacks?

  Alright, so what are the dates this thing in?

• 33:09Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, it's Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Sunday, Monday.

• 33:16David Sacks?

  Of what, of what?

• 33:17Jason Calacanis?

  May 15, 16, 17.

• 33:19David Sacks?

  Okay.

• 33:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh my God, oh my God.

• 33:21Jason Calacanis?

  Oh my God, what a shit show. And you better fucking fly some of these speakers out to the

• 33:25David Sacks?

  It's in a month.

• 33:26Jason Calacanis?

  Yes! That's why I'm busting my ass on this.

• 33:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, uh, Jake, I'm gonna introduce you to Latinsky so we can slaughter

• 33:33Jason Calacanis?

  And if anybody had, uh, we could use a couple more female speakers, people of color. I'm really trying to keep it diverse and have a lot of range of speakers. A lot of David Stans said yes early. You got the Joe Lonsdale, you should get Keith Raboy's, they all like want to support. David's team, I could use a couple of people, maybe with opposing viewpoints. So we're, we're trying to keep it a little bit wide. Bari Weiss may come. We're trying to work on bars.

• 33:53David Sacks?

  That's good. Yeah, we should.

• 33:54Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, she can't make it. I wanted to have Bari and Kara Swisher. It doesn't seem like that oil and vinegar is going to happen. Can we, uh, can we get Glenn Greenwald? But that's right, right, right. You're getting, you're getting further and further to the right. What I would like to have is somebody. Matt Taibbi, Matt Taibbi. That's another kind of right guy. I would like.

• 34:11David Sacks?

  No, your definitions are all off, Jason. These definitions don't mean anything anymore.

• 34:15Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, they're independent, critical thinkers. So.

• 34:16David Sacks?

  They're, they're, they, they originally came from the left. They're not like huge fans of unbiotic capitalism, but they're more on the populist side.

• 34:24Jason Calacanis?

  If you want to send an invite to anybody, Sacks, I would appreciate it, particularly Peter Thiel, who's the, you're the one person who can deliver it since you guys are besties.

• 34:35Jason Calacanis?

  Bring us Peter Thiel. The guy spoke out of goddamn.

• 34:38David Sacks?

  All right, give me a, give me a list. I'll invite Glenn. I'll invite Taibbi. I'll invite Peter.

• 34:43Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, great. Now we just lost half the audience. We're gonna have a protest outside. I, I, I.

• 34:47David Sacks?

  These are the most interesting people.

• 34:49Jason Calacanis?

  Exactly. Peter Thiel is the most interesting, for sure. I like Mike Taibbi, actually. I'll give you that.

• 34:53David Sacks?

  Here's the problem. Here's the problem. Here's the problem with getting the people on the other side is that the people on the other side, again, it's not right versus left anymore. It's sort of populist versus elitist. And you already know what all the elitists are going to say. And they're too afraid to be on stage with people on the other side.

• 35:10Jason Calacanis?

  But I mean, I think that you're associated with Peter Thiel, which is a little bit charged and triggering for certain people. That's.

• 35:16David Sacks?

  Yeah, exactly. That's why they don't, they don't believe in free speech.

• 35:18Jason Calacanis?

  They don't, I mean, people are like, how could you be friends with David? I'm like, because we love each other and we're friends. Like, we're besties. And they're like, well, but you disagree with him.

• 35:26David Sacks?

  Tactics. It's, it's contamination by association.

• 35:29Jason Calacanis?

  Well, that's what they're trying to do. That's, I mean, David, that's what they're trying to do to me right now. I'm getting the back channel. How could you do this with David Sacks? And I'm like, because he's my best friend.

• 35:37David Sacks?

  That's why our pod is popular, is we have four people who are friends, who sometimes disagree with each other. The reason you can't create the show.

• 35:44Jason Calacanis?

  Still remain friends.

• 35:45David Sacks?

  Right.

• 35:45Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, I'm not giving up my friendship with David.

• 35:47David Sacks?

  The reason you can't create the show anywhere else is because those people think they get contaminated if they even have a conversation with somebody on the other side of things.

• 35:57Jason Calacanis?

  But you don't get that on your side.

• 35:59David Sacks?

  Correct.

• 36:00Jason Calacanis?

  Peter Thiel is not coming to you and saying,

• 36:02David Sacks?

  Because we're intellectually confident. We're intellectually confident. We don't believe in shutting down the debate.

• 36:07Jason Calacanis?

  Right.

• 36:07David Sacks?

  We believe in free speech. The other side, they're authoritarian.

• 36:12Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 36:12David Sacks?

  Because they can't defend anything. They just cancel people. They've lost the art of persuasion.

• 36:18Jason Calacanis?

  I think they've given up. Their position would be they've given up trying to reach you. You just don't get it. They've given up trying to reach you. And I'm like, don't give up. Put up a fight. If you disagree with Sacks's position, more speech, challenge him.

• 36:31David Sacks?

  It's not about reaching me. It's about reaching all of them.

• 36:33Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 36:34David Sacks?

  All the people out there watching.

• 36:35Jason Calacanis?

  Engage the debate.

• 36:35David Sacks?

  They don't want to engage the debate because they can't win the debate because they don't know how to persuade.

• 36:39Jason Calacanis?

  I beat you every week in this debate. I swear to you in this debate. Weekly. Look what I did to you in January 6th.

• 36:44David Sacks?

  All they know how to do is cancel people.

• 36:46Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 36:46David Sacks?

  They're so used to canceling people.

• 36:48Jason Calacanis?

  I debate you every week, Sacks, and I own you half the time.

• 36:50David Sacks?

  Okay, if he's good. Think so.

• 36:53Jason Calacanis?

  January 6th. We're going to release the January 6th tapes?

• 36:56David Sacks?

  That's all you got. That's all you got. You're like MSNBC. That's all you got.

• 37:02Speaker 04

  We'll let your winners ride.

• 37:05Speaker 04

  Rain Man David Sacks.

• 37:09Speaker 04

  And it said, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

• 37:13Jason Calacanis?

  Love you, Sacks.

• 37:14Speaker 04

  I'm the queen of Kinoah.

• 37:22Speaker 04

  Besties are back.

• 37:25Speaker 04

  That is my dog taking a leash in your driveway, Sacks.

• 37:30Speaker 04

  Oh, man.

• 37:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We should all just get a room and just have one big U-Journey because they're all just, it's like, it's like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

• 37:40Speaker 04

  What? You're the B. What? You're the B.

• 37:43David Sacks?

  You're a B.

• 37:44Speaker 04

  B. What? We need to get merch. Besties are back.