To Strike or Not to Strike? (Iran) | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Today we speak about the potential strike on the Iranian Nuclear infrastructure, whether the U. S. does it with Israel or green lights Israel to go it alone. we also talk about the ongoing airstrikes on Houthis positions in Yemen, the failed ceasefire in Gaza, and the Ukraine war ceasefire deal and how our own special envoy is parroting Russian talking points and how that probably isn't the best way to negotiate. New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.soci Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  The holidays are my favorite time of year and after a day of shopping, crowds and chaos, there's nothing I'd rather do than cozy up to my favorite casino-style games on SpinQuest from the comfort of my own phone. Thousands of fun slots and live dealer games. And in the spirit of the holidays, as a gift to you, a $30 coin pack for 10 to all new users. Unwrap the fun at spinquest.com or download the app today.

• 0:24Speaker 01

  SpinQuest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

• 0:30Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:00Speaker 03

  And they only have a one-track economy: energy infrastructure. So, he wanted that because that's the one thing that would advantage him. And then, all the other things you said, he's, it's complete maximus, give away nothing, ask for everything, and then try to get the other side to fight each other. They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking points. Which even,

• 1:27Speaker 03

  I mean, obviously, we should be on the side of Ukraine, but even if we're just a mediator. Right. You don't repeat any side's talking points. That's not the point.

• 1:38Speaker 03

  Right? You go in, especially in public, as a mediator, you just keep talking about the instate.

• 1:48Jack Murphy?

  Hey, guys. I want to take a moment to tell you about tonight's sponsor for the show, which is Ridge Wallets. I've been using this for about six months now. Really enjoy it. This wallet is made out of carbon fiber, titanium, and steel, and it really holds up and lasts. So, you know, in the past, I carried a leather wallet. You know, it's made by, you know, professional, has a small shop, and makes, does leather work. I mean, it was a nice wallet and I really loved it. But the problem with those wallets is they get thicker and thicker and thicker, and we end up carrying around something that's like, you know, a little... Phone book in the back of our pocket after a while. And that leads to problems with your posture and everything else.

• 2:32Jack Murphy?

  So what I like about the Ridge Wallet, it's really a minimalist design. So most of us are using cards these days. So it can hold all of your cards in here inside these elastic pieces that you can press out. And then there's a clip on the back. You can, I use it to clip money in when I, when I do use dollars, can clip them in there. They have over 50 colors and styles. So it's not just functional, you can personalize it a bit as well. They have some that feature your favorite NFL teams and so forth. Losing your wallet is also pretty crappy. I've had that happen to me as well. Actually, that wallet, the leather wallet I was telling you about, I lost it on the subway. So there's that. But Ridge has an answer for that.

• 3:17Jack Murphy?

  Ridge AirTag Attachment. And with that, you'll always know exactly where your wallet is before panic mode kicks in. All right. Ridge isn't just about wallets. They create premium everyday carry essentials like key cases, suitcases and rings, all built with the same sleek, durable design. So right now Ridge is having their once a year anniversary sale. Get up to 40% off at ridge.com/house. Just head to ridge.com/house to see their biggest sale of the year. After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them our show sent you. So guys, please go and check out Ridge Wallets. This also makes a great gift. My girlfriend has one of these.

• 4:01Jack Murphy?

  My stepfather has one of these. So I've given them away too. And our producer, Dimitri, has one. So please go and check out Ridge Wallets.

• 4:22Speaker 05

  Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes On. Dimitri here with Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburn. Lock cooking since we've last had a, an episode, so. You know, get a comfortable seat, sit back and relax because the world's falling apart. I'm just joking. Not really.

• 4:42Speaker 05

  The big news coming out of the US is. It seems like the rhetoric. That's coming out is that the US is gearing up for possible airstrike or airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. It started earlier this week with us bombarding the Iranian backed Houthis. I love when like media companies say that that's like they got like a notice from. Wherever they get a notice from that they always have to say Iran backed Houthis. And they've been hitting the Houthis. I feel like it's been harder than. Other airstrikes that we've seen over the last year or so, since they've been screwing around. In the Red Sea.

• 5:25Speaker 05

  Yeah, let's just start with that because everything kind of like entangles into each other like and Israel is sending a delegation to DC this week to talk about an attack plan, whether the US is involved directly or gives Israel the green light to just. Let them go with I'm sure support from us. Because you know, Israel's like clamoring for it, you know, hitting Iran. So Mick, what do you got on this? Like, what are you tracking?

• 5:49Speaker 03

  Well, there's a lot to cover there.

• 5:50Speaker 05

  Yes, there's quite a lot.

• 5:52Speaker 03

  Absolutely. Let's start with. The Houthis. So Ansar Allah, that's the other. That's their name, actually. As you said, Iran back, they are a proxy of Iran. They're not the greatest proxy of Iran. If there was a scale, I think Hezbollah would be on the top as far as. Being able to direct them and taking orders, etc. The Houthis are a bit. of a wild card, but they are earning it back and a proxy and ultimately Iran has the influence if it's not just stop giving them weapon systems that they can hit ships with, right? So you gotta, you gotta be a little skeptical of Iran's claims that they don't have the influence they have. So I would first start with commending the

• 6:37Speaker 03

  current administration with taking a harder stance in my view against the Houthis. Not only have they been a threat to US military assets, which includes, of course, our sailors, soldiers, airmen and marines. They have been conducting direct terrorist attacks against commercial vessels, killing and injuring civilians that have nothing to do with any of the conflicts going on. And it's important to point out, they were doing a lot of this before the war in Gaza even started. So they use that as their, you know, reasoning behind it, but they were doing this prior to that even happening. So I think it's time that

• 7:21Speaker 03

  we take all the necessary military steps to degrade them to a point of being unable to continue the attacks. They're never going to change their philosophy on attacking the US and Israel. It's literally in their national motto. But we can take, we can kill all the leadership and we can destroy their ability to attack innocent civilians aboard commercial vessels, which of course this region, about 40% of the energy of the world comes out of this region. It's mostly dependent on by the Indo-Pacific region, not us. So good

• 8:00Speaker 03

  on them for that. Some would say this could also be a reason to flow a lot of assets. Some you just mentioned, the USS Carl Vinson is also steaming from the Pacific to the Middle East to link up with the Truman, another aircraft carrier. So we're putting a lot of regional assets out there, which I think sends a signal both to the Houthis and the signal being we're gonna, you know, attack you harder than you've been attacked before, but also a signal to Iran that you see how we're dismantling your proxy force here. If you don't come to the negotiation table for

• 8:40Speaker 03

  JCPOA 2.0 or whatever we're gonna call it, which hopefully will include addressing Iran's use of proxy forces in the region as well as nuclear ambitions. Then you could be next. So I think that, I think there is a very, I don't, obviously no decision has been made yet, I don't think, but I think there's a very real possibility that the US could be looking at if Iran has a breakout toward a nuclear weapon. They have, they could easily get to the amount of enrichment they need. They have to come up with a triggering mechanism, which they could get from Russia or North Korea. But if they do that, I do think there's a real possibility that the United States either in

• 9:20Speaker 03

  conjunction with or unilaterally strikes at facilities and TANs and the other nuclear facilities you mentioned.

• 9:30Speaker 03

  Andy?

• 9:32Speaker 06

  Yeah, I agree with, with Mick that the strikes on the Houthis are, you know, renewed strikes are, they're overdue, but you know, the concern has never been so much the number of sorties we're flying against the Houthis. It's been, it's been having intelligence that is useful enough to result in real time targeting. In other words, I mean, just the nature of Houthi operations means that no matter how sophisticated our intelligence is, they are able to shoot and scoot and, and clear the area before we can cause really serious damage. Now that's, you know, we are, we are plinking away and we are causing casualties and, you

• 10:17Speaker 06

  know, essentially we're, we're creating tremendous attrition for them. So one hopes they cannot sustain these efforts for long, but they did fire another rocket at, a missile at Israel the other day. So, you know, they, they aren't, they aren't yet completely on the ropes and it is the way we're doing things, again, it's the only thing that we can do. This isn't a criticism, but it is, it is inefficient and it isn't as effective as it may appear. And to really go after the heart of the problem would be bring pressure on Iran. And so I, you know, it's hard to tell what the administration is thinking, but definitely

• 10:58Speaker 06

  that must be foremost in their mind at the same time. To Mick's point, you know, Iran,

• 11:05Speaker 06

  by the end, certainly, you know, the last.

• 11:09Speaker 06

  By the last information that that the IAEA has, that's the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran was able to, was producing about seven kilograms of uranium enriched to sixty percent, which is just below weapons grade every month, which would be enough to make about two nuclear bombs per year if enriched further. Okay, so that was towards the end of last year. Since then, the IAEA says that their intelligence, their information has kind of dried up. At the same time, the Israelis are saying, open source, their intelligence

• 11:49Speaker 06

  guys are saying that they are certain that the Iranians are making a determined approach for breakout, that they are doubling up on their centrifuge activity, and that more, perhaps even more worryingly, they've moved their centrifuges into areas that are deeper than before. Let me just say that much, okay. And so, it's kind of interesting, Ehud Barak, who's a former Israeli prime minister, and was until recently a firm advocate of the Israelis going after, genetically going after Iran's nuclear capability, is now saying that he doesn't think it's going to do any good, that the Iran's program's now too advanced,

• 12:34Speaker 06

  too deeply buried to take out without US help, all right, without bunker busting bombs, as the media likes to say. So, that, where does all this put it? Oh, the other thing is, do you remember back in 2020, the Israelis killed the most prominent Iranian nuclear physicist? You know, I mean, it was the end of a, it was culmination of a campaign of going after nuclear physicists, but this guy, his name was Mohsen, I'm going to mispronounce it, Farizadeh, and they took him out using that, it was like an automatic machine gun,

• 13:19Speaker 06

  it was a very unusual type operation. And the problem is now, apparently, and this is according to the Israelis, that there are now five or six of these guys who've replaced him, you know, which is probably predictable, and are working even harder at upgrading enrichment process. So, all of this is to say that, yes, there are, you know, Israel's, Israel, it's been a really bad, I'm sorry, it's been a very bad year for Iran, you know, they, they lost their president in helicopter crash, they had been struck twice by the Israelis and were unable

• 14:01Speaker 06

  to bring down a, you know, a single aircraft, according to the Israelis, and certainly open source information seems to back the fact that they've been largely denuded of their anti-aircraft or their integrated air defense systems. And so it does seem like a good opportunity to strike. And from, you know, our own president's rhetoric, when he talks about taking the next step, obviously, that would be the next step. But perhaps not quite so predictable, all right? And when we look at some of the internal politics

• 14:38Speaker 06

  within the administration, two of the biggest Iraq hawks, sorry, Iran hawks are out of favor. Remember, what was his name? Hook, Brian Hook, was a big opponent of, he was the Iran envoy in Trump's first term, and he and Pompeo were, were all about going after Iran. And now they've had their security clearances withdrawn. And, and actually, Hook was fired shortly after President Trump took office this time. And then you look at Eldridge Colby, right? And it's kind of the Pentagon's policy chief who's saying

• 15:19Speaker 06

  that we did that, the intent now is to focus on, on the Far East.

• 15:26Speaker 06

  I mean, absolutely do it this time. So, you know, hard to tell, it's hard to read anything, any coherent messaging here. Yes, I'm tracking the movement of aircraft down around, you know, to include supposed landing of F thirty fives in PSAP, which could be, you know, for a number of reasons. I mean, we, and moving the aircraft carriers to the region, we do these things all the time as kind of a signaling mechanism. It could just be part of our messaging to Iran that we intend to play hard. But I don't know, it's a long way of saying this, but I, I, I don't know. I mean, there's, there's certainly

• 16:05Speaker 06

  mixed messaging. But I'll finish by saying that last year, I posited that the Israelis, if they wanted to, could strike and have serious effect upon Iran's nuclear capability. And I, that appears to be no longer the case because of Iranian moves. So they would, apparently, if, if, you know, the open source information, we believe, they would need US support for this.

• 16:39Speaker 03

  Yeah, on that point, um, the munitions, when it comes to doing this, are very important, right? So the GBU fifty seven, I think. Um, to my understanding, we, we're the only ones that have it. It can, it's about a thirty thousand pound, um, massive ordinance, penetrating bomb that can go around two hundred feet below the surface before it detonates. And to Andy's point, um, it's probably necessary to actually have the effects we want on the facilities, based on what they've done with them. So that would kind of necessitate the US, I believe, unless there's only a certain amount of aircrafts that can carry that, too. So I'm not an air guy, so I'm not gonna get too far.

• 17:23Speaker 06

  Yeah, I was just looking that up, who carries it.

• 17:27Speaker 03

  I think it's to be to. Only to be too, like the F 15 can, I mean, it's that big. Uh, I'd look it up, but. Okay. Um, there's only a certain amount, it's 30,000, think about it, we, we, we talk about, you know, these huge JDAMs that are 2,000 pounds, it's 30,000 pounds, right? Yeah. Um, so that's one point. The other point I would make that Andy made earlier. Um, certainly agree, it's more than just your intent when it comes to dimension, the Houthis. Part of the way the intelligence apparatus in the United States work, it's the most effective, I think, in the world. But it, it had, it had, is finite, so they only have, you know, what they have.

• 18:08Speaker 03

  And they often shift based on policy, uh, interests of senior leadership, right? So, uh, and I don't know this to be necessarily true, but when the Biden administration de-emphasized the Houthis, took them off the terrorist list. The chances of the intelligence community then shifting collection on them is high. Uh, it doesn't mean they just dumped it. Um, but you know, based on these signals, uh, they would shift. So now that there's a new administration, um, who's obviously more interested in being effective against the Houthis militarily effective. That the intel has to catch up, so it can catch up pretty quick, but it has to be re-tasked in some cases to really get that.

• 18:50Speaker 03

  Solid picture. And I think one of the reasons why they're talking about leadership targets in the, and Yemen right now is because it, the, the intel is catching up. So, uh, good for us, bad for, uh, you know, the Houthis.

• 19:02Jack Murphy?

  Hey guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show, if you've been watching it, enjoying it. Um, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this. You can check out our Patreon, it is patreon.com slash the team house. And for $5 a month, you can get access to all of these episodes of the team house ad free. Uh, the same goes with our affiliated podcast, Eyes On with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons, McMulroy. Uh, that one, you will also get all of those episodes ad free. And you support the channel and the show and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally what has helped this company, this small business survive, especially during our early years.

• 19:47Jack Murphy?

  And you are what continues to help this thing going even as we navigate the turbulent world of YouTube advertising. So we really appreciate all of you guys. There's going to be a link down in the description to that Patreon page. And there is also going to be a link to our new merch shop. So if you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise, we got stickers and we also have patches. And I should mention, if you sign up for Patreon at $10 a month, we will mail you this patch as well. So we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale on the merch shop. And additionally, they got t-shirts up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all that good stuff.

• 20:32Jack Murphy?

  So please go and check them out and support the show. We really appreciate it, guys. Thank you.

• 20:37Speaker 00

  Happy birthday, America. It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American-owned Spinquest.com. What's better than fireworks and American pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand and you won't lose your fingers. Over 1,000 games, including slots and live dealers. And $30 coin packs are on sale for 10. Spinquest.com. Buy American players for American players.

• 21:01Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 21:07Speaker 07

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 21:35Speaker 05

  And yeah, it can only be carried by big bombers, B2, and probably the B52.

• 21:40Speaker 03

  Okay, the, the...

• 21:42Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 21:43Speaker 03

  U57.

• 21:44Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 21:45Speaker 03

  So, and that means... Also to Andy's point, you gotta get rid of the integrated air and missile defense system of Iran before you really conduct these strikes. Right, these are big, big aircraft and they're gonna be coming in, you know, the way they do. So they're gonna have to, they're gonna have to take out a lot of Iranians. So the best case scenario is they come to the table and we come to an agreement that keeps them from getting a nuclear agreement, stops them from paying every militant group in the region to attack its neighbor and it gets sanctions removed off the Iranian people so they can join the world economy and do well. Right, that's the way we want to go.

• 22:26Speaker 03

  We shouldn't want to end up with a military strike because the question is, what's the reaction? What comes from that? And it's, you know, let's say we don't do it, but the, I think the diplomatic path forward, which I think the administration wants to see is the path. But it's really gonna come down to Iran, who so far don't seem to be interested, per the eye at all.

• 22:49Speaker 06

  Yeah, I mean, in fairness, not in fairness, but to be accurate, you know, Iran's, Iran's in a quandary too. I mean, they've, they've lost their missile stockpiles last year, their air defenses and, and regional allies, you know, with downfall of Assad and also the demise of Hamas, Hezbollah on the ropes and now the Houthis. And so on one hand, that does make a nuclear option more attractive.

• 23:20Speaker 06

  But on the other hand, they're in a very poor position to weather the fallout if, if they are caught in the process of dashing for a bomb. And, you know, the Israelis have, have shown, have demonstrated a remarkable degree of penetration of Iran over the last year too, which means that the Iranians are probably concerned that they cannot break out without the rest of the world or make rush for a breakout without the rest of the world finding out.

• 23:48Speaker 03

  Right.

• 23:49Speaker 06

  You know, so there are, I mean, they've got a new president who seems a moderate, but was it Pezesh Ken? But he's a, you know, he's a weak president with very little nuclear, very little say on nuclear policy.

• 24:06Speaker 06

  So. You know, even but but those with real power within the administration, the Iranian regime do have good reasons to cut a deal. They're in a, you know, they're in dire economic straits. And and as said, you know, they've they've lost their allies and they they must be, you know, even if if a combined Israeli-US strike doesn't achieve its objectives, that's still going to leave Iran in a in a very poor position from the just from the fallout. So I think, you know, I I would be surprised if Iran doesn't

• 24:48Speaker 06

  broach some kind of negotiated settlement. But to Max's point, and I agree absolutely, the missing part from the Jipoa was was a lack of leverage or a our both our inability, but we didn't even try to bring pressure on Iran to stop its, you know, its gray zone activities, use of proxies in in the in the Middle East. And now, of course, specifically the Houthis are the main problem.

• 25:20Speaker 05

  Just for anybody listening, the Jipoa is the first Iran nuclear deal with on the Obama administration. Just FYI.

• 25:29Speaker 06

  Yeah, and you know, Britain, France, and Germany, who are rarely aligned on Iran, have all said that they would be willing to, you know, reimpose just the full gamut of pre 2015 sanctions on Iran. And they said that, you know, as recently as as December.

• 25:51Speaker 06

  Focused on the on nonproliferation. So there's certainly a lot of pressure, and Iran must be sensing the pressure to to negotiate. And they and they've got internal problems too, you know, they can probably talk about it better than I can, but they You know, they're dealing with, um, they, they have never been totally impervious, certainly not in the last two decades, well, not, not since the, uh, Orange Revolution, whenever that was, two thousand and nine, was it orange or green, I forget the color, but, uh, they've never been impervious to public opinion. I mean, they have, yes, their elections are sham elections, but they, uh, nevertheless, uh, the, the regime is concerned when there

• 26:34Speaker 06

  are rumblings of discontent and there are increasing rumblings of discontent within Iran. They've got a very highly educated middle class that wields, um, probably more power than in most countries in the, in the Middle East or more, more influence, and they are unhappy. They're unhappy with, uh, Iran's adventuring overseas, they're unhappy with the isolation, and they're especially unhappy with the economic situation.

• 26:59Speaker 03

  That's true. They are very unpopular, and another thing you reference is the president actually is more focused internally, right? So the Ayatollah and all the, they make all the big decisions, the nuclear decisions, you know, frolicking overseas and IRGC and all that. Um, but they are, they are a very unpopular regime in Iran, and, you know, if they do enter into, uh, the Jipoa 2.0, this could be very good for the country, which, um, wants it. So, there's, there's a way ahead that's, that's clearly best for the region and best for Iran, or at least the Iranian people. Um, but right now, the regime seems to be only focused on the regime, which is what usually regimes focus on.

• 27:46Speaker 05

  Uh, staying in the area, um, Israel start, restarted its, its military action on Gaza, uh, ton of airstrikes, ground force movements. Um, they've really like, uh, turned the heat up, I would say. Um, they've also started bombing southern Lebanon, some Hezbollah positions as well.

• 28:06Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 28:06Speaker 05

  So ceasefire seems to have, you know, begun. Mick, uh, what are you looking at there?

• 28:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, so, I mean... Part of this was because Israel wanted to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, right? So that would mean hostages still come out, Palestinian prisoners are released, and humanitarian aid comes in at large quantities. Hamas wanted to go to the second phase because that means the IDF has to withdraw, and essentially the war is over. And the third phase, of course, gets into reconstruction and all that. So Netanyahu wasn't going to be able to hold his coalition if he withdrew the IDF. Not that the world should care necessarily about Prime Minister Netanyahu's political future, but that's the reality for him. So Hamas then rejected the extension. So that's just looking at

• 28:57Speaker 03

  it from their perspective, right? So there's no humanitarian aid coming into Gaza right now. That shouldn't happen, but it is. Hamas doesn't apparently care, right? So because they can extend the first phase, and they could release hostages that never should have been taken hostage in the first place, and we could be where we are. But they are. So I think, I think because the ministers came back into the government, Smoltrits and Ben-Gavir, there's probably a good likelihood that we're not going to see a ceasefire anytime soon. I don't think they would have came back in without talking to Netanyahu, and then there's a ceasefire that, that's the reason why they left it in the first place, right? So that's my, that's my speculation. I don't obviously know anything specific.

• 29:38Speaker 03

  But I think we're, we're going to be set for a pretty long extended period of fighting here. It's in the north, it's in the central, and it's in the south. I think the whole time during the two months ceasefire, they were collecting intel, as I would be too, and preparing for this phase of the operation. So that's why it happened so quickly when it did. And that's why it's, it's quite frankly been very effective going after, you know, what's left of the leadership. And I think this is going to keep going. Israel is claiming that they're going to create these humanitarian zones where people in Gaza would be going to, hopefully to receive humanitarian assistance. But anybody left out would be deemed, you

• 30:19Speaker 03

  know, an enemy combatant, and that, you know, from a military perspective would be easier. But it does appear to be, you know, serious population control. And then, of course, we're still have this, these reports that

• 30:33Speaker 03

  countries have been approached about taking Gazans, which, again, is very impractical and likely unlawful. But that's where I think we are now. There's also, and I know, you know, I stick to national security and politics, but there's a lot of politics going on in Israel right now. So is it the beginning of the fighting again was super unpopular by some. Prime Minister Netanyahu has fired Shin Bet. They're basically their internal service chief. Apparently, the cabinet's now removed the attorney general. I would call it a constitutional crisis for Israel, but they don't have a constitution, which is one of the reasons. So there's, there's a lot going on right now, internal strike inside Israel.

• 31:17Speaker 03

  You know, the, the, the far right thinks that the judiciary has too much, sound familiar, has too much authority. The far left thinks basically Prime Minister Netanyahu's went from a traditional conservative to some kind of, you know, French monarch where he hits it on himself, the state, right? The state is me. That's kind of, I think, thumbnail sketch of the current situation, but it does affect the war. Right? So this had, this could have a profound effect on the war and, and so that's why I bring it up. But those, those are what I see going. Now Lebanon, let's hope it doesn't kick back off the people of Lebanon and certainly the people in northern Israel.

• 32:02Speaker 03

  But they have to be able to get control. That's one thing. The, the government in Lebanon has to has to get control over the armed factions in Lebanon. They have to, they have to figure it out, or UNIFIL needs to figure out how they can do more, which I don't have any confidence in. But they're literally, if they just say, well, it's not us, it's that group of people that are in Lebanon that are attacking you, then

• 32:27Speaker 03

  It's gonna kick back off. Or are you?

• 32:31Speaker 06

  Yeah, so I, I mean, the, the war is intimately bound up with Israeli politics. You know, Netanyahu did a number of things to, to kind of line this up. Foring the, the previous Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces and bringing in Lieutenant General Zamir, who is a, I wouldn't say a Netanyahu loyalist, but seems to have views that are aligned with Netanyahu. And Zamir has said, you know, he favors a longer campaign, bringing armored divisions in on the ground inside Gaza to root out Hamas fighters, which is, you know, obviously having a catastrophic effect on the population there.

• 33:15Speaker 06

  I mean, the, the repossessing, redisplacing population again to these so-called humanitarian zones. And, you know, infrastructure is pulverized, they've been dealing with near starvation now for, for months. So, you know, again, the, the, we shouldn't forget the scale of misery within Gaza. That doesn't affect Israeli politics. I don't think most Israelis really, that, that really factors with them. But the deploying the number of divisions that Zamir envisions for his war plans is gonna have a severe effect on the Israeli population. It's gonna include tens of thousands of reserve troops who've yet to be mobilized, okay?

• 34:00Speaker 06

  With all the follow-on effects on the economy and disruption of lives, that will have an effect. You know, for, for Netanyahu himself, the timing of, of his false renewed attack on Gaza was politically fortuitous. His coalition was in danger of, of losing its majority on, on the eve of a, of a critical budget vote. And, um, and if that had failed to pass, then it would have prompted early elections. And then, you know, as Mick talked about, within hours of the strikes on Gaza, Itomer Ben-Gavir, who's a, an old friend of this program, leader of the far-right Jewish power party, and he had, had left the government, um, back in January, and then he returned

• 34:42Speaker 06

  to the fold, which indicates, yes, that there was some kind of deal between him and Netanyahu. Certainly Netanyahu is anxious to rally his base because of, you know, controversial attempt to fire the head of the Shin Bet, I'm sorry, and the Attorney General. Their investigations into Netanyahu's close aides who alleged to have leaked classified documents and received payments from Qatar, and then of course, the corruption charges against Netanyahu himself, right? And then, you know, it could be that the Supreme Court could block some of these efforts,

• 35:27Speaker 06

  Netanyahu's efforts, political efforts on the grounds of conflict of interests, which would again lead to a constitutional crisis, which is, you know, has been building since before the war, frankly. I mean, remember the fact that his coalition wanted to pass sweeping legal reforms to weaken the powers of the Supreme Court, and all of that was kind of eclipsed by the war, but it goes bubbling on in the background. So it does look as though, you know, regardless, that there is going to be some kind of political crisis in Israel, and the renewed offensive in Gaza provides, I'm sure, well, not I'm

• 36:09Speaker 06

  sure, provides a welcome distraction to Netanyahu and his prodigies.

• 36:15Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, Mick, I remember when the ceasefire first came into effect, or they were like, close to it, and we're talking about the points of it, where like, phase two kind of didn't seem like really viable of an option, where like, the IDF backs out, and then some other magical security force comes in and keeps the law and order and stuff. So, I mean, it's, as a cynical person that I am, it doesn't really seem that shocking that Israel wanted to extend phase one, because phase two was.

• 36:53Speaker 05

  Uh, fanciful.

• 36:55Speaker 03

  Yeah, and there's and part of this is the rest of the world isn't stepping up, right? So yeah, I I remember when Secretary Blinken last administration went around asking all the countries in the region about a multinational, you know, peacekeeping force, if you will, they got a big no, right? So, uh, so that's off the table. So what's what's left? Is there some kind of version of can they train, you know, the former Palestinian police? Can they train Palestinians that are vetted and not associated with Hamas, for example, or PIG or J, excuse me?

• 37:32Speaker 03

  I guess they could. Maybe that should be happening. Seems like something that the international community could be doing, or they could go with a private company. And, you know, that's there's always issues with private security because, you know, who's who's who's laws that they fall under? Who are they? Um, you know, when something bad happens, all of a sudden, the governments that hired them are pointing at them. So I mean, I'm not saying any of these are easy, but I mean, from Israeli's perspective, they're not going to turn it back over to Hamas. Like, that's just not going to happen. I don't care what side of the political spectrum you are in Israel. That that solution is is a nonstarter.

• 38:09Speaker 05

  What about the Palestinian Authority? Because I know there was some talk about like, no, they're not, not them either.

• 38:16Speaker 03

  Well, I mean, the reason why the last administration called them the revitalized Palestinian authorities, because largely they're viewed negatively by the Palestinian people. They are, for the most part, ineffective and certainly corrupt. So there has to be some new version of that. And then under that, there could be a trained, you know, keep the peace force, right? It easier said than done. And, you know, I spent a lot of time training, uh, partner forces like that. So, but, you know, the best way, best day to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best day is today. So if they intend us to ever have a time when the IDF can withdraw and Palestinians can take care of their own security, which means

• 38:58Speaker 03

  also Israeli's security, right? So not allowing any group in there to attack Israel. It's got to start. So it doesn't seem like anybody's talking about that.

• 39:09Speaker 06

  Yeah, so the one interesting thing about a number of interesting things about what's going on, I mean, the the the IDS really they're not, yeah, it's not so much, well, they are fighting on forefront, so they're maintaining a robust presence on forefront forefront, there's Gaza, where they are going on the offensive again, southern Syria, you know, beyond the Golan Heights, maintaining a presence there in accordance with Netanyahu's declaration that he did not want the HTS pushing south of Damascus, the HTS, of course, is the ruling party in Syria now. Then you've got the West

• 39:53Speaker 06

  Bank, where the, you know, the Israelis have mobilized reserve battalions in to bolster their presence in the West Bank, and and of course Lebanon, you know, they've got five, they're maintaining five fortified locations in southern Lebanon, which by the way, you know, you can look at this as you want, you can say it provides, you know, in justification the government is provides a buffer zone and for the security of Israeli civilians in the north. But on the other hand, and the Israelis encountered this during their 20 year long occupation of Lebanon, it provides Hezbollah caused Detra to to rise again,

• 40:37Speaker 06

  right, to to expel the Israeli occupier as a kind of focus of effort and it and it continues to to keep kind of the the sheer resentment simmering. So, you know, it's a it's a double edged sword. The other reason, I mean, I it's unlikely, who knows whether the US administration will come down on the Israeli government for

• 41:01Speaker 00

  The holidays are my favorite time of year, and after a day of shopping, crowds and chaos, there's nothing I'd rather do than cozy up to my favorite casino style games on Spin Quest from the comfort of my own phone. Thousands of fun slots and live dealer games. And in the spirit of the holidays, as a gift to you, a $30 coin pack for 10 to all new users. Unwrap the fun at spinquest.com or download the app today.

• 41:25Speaker 01

  Spin Quest is a free to play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

• 41:31Speaker 07

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 41:59Speaker 06

  And have them downscale any of these military presidencies anytime soon. But the pressure is likely to be internal and it's likely to be economic. You know, this is Israel's economy has suffered hugely since the events of October the 7th, and they continue doing so. Not is not, we're not just talking about loss of tourism and all of that. We're talking about, of course, the cost of the economy of having a significant proportion of the population mobilized as reservists. And a lot of these, a lot of the guys in, in all of these locations are, are reservists. And as I mentioned earlier, in order to continue the offensive against Gaza,

• 42:43Speaker 06

  they're going to have to mobilize many more reservists. So there's going to be, there's significant economic pressure to, to kind of downscale these commitments, but there doesn't seem to be an end in sight.

• 42:56Speaker 05

  Mick, you got anything? I mean, it was pretty succinct.

• 43:00Speaker 06

  Quick cover. Quick covered all that.

• 43:03Speaker 05

  I just want, yeah, go ahead, Andy.

• 43:04Speaker 06

  Yeah, I was just saying, there's, there's another aspect here that Netanyahu doesn't seem to care about. I think probably some of his generals and some of the more moderate members of his coalition do too, is the fact that they are burning bridges rapidly with two of their most important partners in regional partners. Partners is a strong word, but they're neighbors, Egypt and Jordan.

• 43:31Speaker 06

  Relations have never been worse. Well, not never, not since seventy-three, okay? Relations have not been worse with those than those two countries than they are now. And there's, you know, I mean, you can say what you want and Netanyahu can pound his chest and say, we're the, you know, we're the biggest bully in the neighborhood. But on the other hand, you, if you're, if you're going to burn bridges like that, there's going to be a cost. And, um, and it's worth remembering that fifty percent of Jordan's population are Palestinians and are incensed about what is going on in Gaza. And there's a long porous border with Jordan that's quite easy to cross. And so, you know, you can't, and, and of course there is with Egypt.

• 44:12Speaker 06

  You can't help thinking that, that Israel may be sowing the seeds for serious problems over the next decade.

• 44:24Speaker 05

  Jesus. All right, let's, uh, let's go to a little bit more.

• 44:27Speaker 03

  We've talked about this for a long time.

• 44:29Speaker 05

  Yeah, let's go to, uh, season ten of Izan, we'll be talking about this. Um, happier news, I guess, which I'm joking. Um, the Ukrainian ceasefire, um, lots gone on since I think we last spoke. The US Ukraine came together and had a ceasefire proposal for thirty days to not hit infrastructure, like the energy infrastructure that didn't last more than like four hours. Uh, Putin put out his own plan, which seems to be, you know, zero concessions on his side, obviously, like what to be expected? Why would he give up anything when our own side is, the United States anyway, is, uh, happily happy to give him as many concessions as he's like, as he'd like.

• 45:12Speaker 05

  Uh, Trump and Putin had a two-hour phone call the other day. Um, and a very, I'm going to bring it up, the very interesting, uh, interview with Tucker Carlson and Steve Whitkoff, where Steve Whitkoff, I mean.

• 45:27Speaker 05

  Was, you know, I guess describing the relationship between Putin and Trump as being the best of friends and it's just, it's kind of wild to see that this stuff's coming from inside the house, where Putin is somehow, some way, somebody who can be trusted in any way to negotiate, and it's coming from our own officials, for the most part, and it's disheartening, to say the least, and forget it if you're from Ukraine, I mean, I mean, at that point, or Europe. So, that's just me running my mouth. Nick, what do you think?

• 46:09Speaker 03

  Well, I'll try to start with one positive is, you know, at least we're talking, right? Because you're never going to get to a ceasefire negotiated settlement without talking.

• 46:18Speaker 03

  And the other point is, you know, Ukraine is not losing, right? I mean, talk about a group that's been completely underestimated from the beginning till now. And there's a plausible way ahead if Europe steps up, that even if the US steps out, which would be a huge mistake, not just for Ukraine and our status in the world, but for all our relationships going forward, who would deem us a completely unreliable ally and partner. But there is a way that Ukraine can stay in the fight. It won't be easier, easy, but Russia's losing so many troops right now that even though they could care less about that personally,

• 47:04Speaker 03

  it eventually runs out, and they're gaining very little terrain with the amount of expenditure of force. On the, on the issue of the ceasefire, essentially, Russia rejected the ceasefire proposal by the United States. You know, we keep saying, oh, they said yes, and then said, but only infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and by energy infrastructure, I mean, our infrastructure, because they immediately turned around and attacked Ukrainian energy and infrastructure. And really, the only reason why they're focused on energy infrastructure is because Ukraine's been incredibly effective against targeting Russian.

• 47:43Speaker 03

  And they only have a one-track economy, energy infrastructure. So he wanted that because that's the one thing that would advantage him. And then all the other things you said, the he's it's complete maximus, give away nothing, ask for everything, and then try to get the other side to fight each other. They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking points, which even

• 48:10Speaker 03

  I mean, obviously, we should be on the side of Ukraine, but even if we're just a mediator. Right. You don't repeat any side's talking points. That's not the point.

• 48:21Speaker 03

  Right? You go in, in especially in public as a mediator, you just keep talking about the end state, but you also don't talk about what's called, you know, for the policy, what's that there? It was a final status issues. That's what's supposed to come out the other end. You don't talk about it publicly because that's the whole point of the negotiation process. So, um, you know, obviously not taking advice from me, but you know, I would advise that we are openly for Ukraine because they're our partners and we did promise them security guarantees back in 1994, uh, and that General Kellogg should be running this thing, um, as he was. But at the very least, stop talking about it publicly.

• 49:05Speaker 03

  Stop, stop issuing declarations on final status issues and, uh, and start coming up with sticks for Russia because they're not going forward with this unless we start talking additional sanctions, enhanced security assistance. So more, not just what we were given, but more. And then, um, you know, whatever else we can come up with, uh, for, for sticks and then give Russia a reason to come to the table. They'll start losing terrain if we double down on our security assistance. They'll start losing the funding to, to pay for the North Korean troops, the Iranian drones. If we further damage, uh, their economy through sanctions. So that's how you get across to Russia. They don't, you could compliment them all day long.

• 49:49Speaker 03

  They'd be happy with that, but it's not going to make it hill of beans. They only stand, understand consequences. And if there's no consequences, then they're just going to drag this out until, uh, and, and the last point that I make is, and Prime Minister Maloney made this, right? So the conservative Italian Prime Minister.

• 50:07Speaker 03

  The only reason why Russia cares about security guarantees is because they intend to to re- attack Ukraine, right? If you don't intend to re-attack Ukraine, then what do you care about security guarantees? Or it doesn't matter, right? So I think Europe's waking up, and that's a good thing, and they should have woke up a long time ago. They're gonna work on their own defense, and I think they're gonna quadruple down if they need to on Ukraine, because it's definitely in their interest to stop Putin in its tracks in Ukraine and eventually, you know, get Ukraine into the European Union and then whatever version comes out of NATO, if that's really where we're headed, which would be a mistake if we leave it. One more point on that.

• 50:49Speaker 03

  If we actually get Europe to the point where it is an extraordinarily effective military force, all paying twice as much as they used to pay on their own defense, and then leave NATO, that would be, from a strategic perspective, incredibly short-sighted. We would literally have to make up in our defense budget, would we just cut ourselves away from by leaving the NATO, although I don't think it's gonna happen, but since people like to talk about this so much, it would make no sense from the U- from solely the US perspective to leave an entity that's now a incredibly effective fighting force, which Europeans will will be one day. All right, off the soapbox. Andy.

• 51:32Speaker 06

  Yeah, you know, you know, the problem is that Mick and I agree on too much stuff, so I'm not going to, you know, I couldn't word it better than Mick did, you know, I agree with him on all those counts, so I'll put, I'll just approach this from a very different and perhaps a personal level. So first of all, you know, I'm not gonna rail away about the, you know, our, my concern about the fact that we seem to be cozying up to Putin, my feelings about the Russians are well-known, and and maybe I'm just overly emotional because they did try to kill me on a, on a number of occasions, and I take that very personally. And.

• 52:11Speaker 06

  You know, to Max's point about Europe stepping up to the plate, I think, and actually playing the mature party in all of this, I think it's, you know, spot on. You know, it just stays a, as a comment to, because invariably, and I read, when I read the comments about our appearances on, on Eyes On, and we've got some great supporters, and we've got some people who reappear, and, or, and I call them supporters too, but they're kind of, they're motivated by hatred and resentment, and they regularly critique us increasingly for our lack of loyalty to the United States, which is, seems to me absurd.

• 52:53Speaker 06

  But I would like to comment on about this, you know, this whole discussion about what the defense of Ukraine stands for, et cetera, et cetera, you know, I mean, I spent thirty-one years in uniform, fought in wars on the behalf of the United States, from Mogadishu all the way through to the fight against ISIS, and, you know, one thing that, that I never really, never really made sense to me was when people thanked me for defending our freedom, because our freedom has never, has never been at threat, this country has not been, not during my lifetime, and, you know, while I certainly acknowledge and appreciate the thank you

• 53:37Speaker 06

  for your service and all that, but this constant talk about how we're defending the freedom of the United States was all bullshit when it comes down to it. We were doing what we had to do, you know, I'm not, I'm not undermining my, the patriotism of my comrades in arms, but we were doing what we had to do on behalf of our country, on behalf of the national interest, but we weren't defending freedom at all. Ukrainians are defending freedom, okay, maybe not of the United States, but of Europe, and they're defending ideals that I sometimes found difficult to align with what we were doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is why it makes sense for

• 54:17Speaker 06

  Guys like Nate Vance, who we interviewed the other day, or indeed myself, or the guys in the Mozart crew to have been in Ukraine when we were doing what we did. And, you know, that's probably what I need to say on this and why it makes perfect sense now, and continues to make perfect sense, that Europe is stepping up to the plate, and that it makes no sense at all to rely on Putin or the Russians to hold the peace. I mean, you don't even have to be a student of history, you just have to read the news over the last decade or so to understand that. And that probably brings me, and I'm sounding like an angry, you know, one of our angry

• 54:59Speaker 06

  listeners, but, you know, I think a lot of the problems with this cozying up to Russia right now, and I'm watching the welter of weirdness on social media, it comes from people who are really, really fucking ignorant and just don't, they don't even read recent history, they don't understand geopolitics, that's really what it comes down to. And it's sad, and it's, but the isolationism in the last century has not worked well for the United States, and it won't work well now. That is all.

• 55:35Speaker 03

  Yeah, and if I can make one point on it, what Andy just said, you know, as far as patriotism versus the alternative being, I guess, treachery, that was, well, look at it, your patriotism or lack thereof has to do with your fidelity to the Constitution and your service to the country, right? So you could be, you know, Mark Kelly, to use the example of somebody who was called a traitor, who obviously isn't, or Mike Wallace, right? It shouldn't be based on your political position. If that's the case, that's not patriotism, that is, that is, that's just partisanism. And, you know, that's the way I view it.

• 56:17Speaker 03

  So if you're calling somebody a traitor because you disagree with them politically, I mean, you might want to redefine your definition of patriotism. And that's not just with, you know, names we recognize, but, you know, obviously I have a lot of friends that served, in fact, most of them. And they're from across the political spectrum, right? But I don't, I don't define their service to their country or their status as a patriot or not, based on, you know, whether they're far right, far left, or somewhere in the center. If you do, then we just fundamentally disagree on the definition of the word.

• 56:50Speaker 05

  Yeah, very well said by both of you guys. Um, I have a question. Um, there is a prevailing thought that I'm seeing.

• 57:01Speaker 05

  That the Russian economy now, how it's constituted because of the war, is heavily reliant on the war continuing.

• 57:11Speaker 05

  And that might be a reason why Putin is apprehensive to make a deal. I think that's bullshit. But that is a prevailing thought that's going on right now. Because at some point, I mean, you lose enough guys. I mean, what is your economy without the people in it to work it?

• 57:28Speaker 03

  Next generation. I, I mean, I, I don't know. I'd like to hear somebody who kind of thought that through. I, I'd be interested to hear from somebody who knows more about economies, economics than I do, but explain it. I don't know. I do think right now he thinks he's, he could still gain territory and potentially, I think that's one of the reasons. But if this is another, I'd like to, I'd like to hear.

• 57:51Speaker 06

  Yeah, I, I don't, I haven't heard that, Dean, and to me, I, I'm not an economist, but it simply doesn't make sense. You know, the uh, his, his, the, the economy is taking a, a shellacking. And I think it's, I mean, I think it's just much more basic than that. Putin has staked everything on this war. It was his war. You know, it was a

• 58:16Speaker 06

  it, it was a GRU war, an FSB war. It was not a military, you know, his military weren't telling him to do it. They were pretty docile in the face of it, but there is and has been since the outset of the war, increasing a resentment against the administration, administration regime from within the military. Remember Prigozhin's kind of attempted coup and the fact that he was, he was almost embraced by many within the army's leadership. Putin knows that. He must know that. And he knows that his position is precarious if he cannot. If he cannot show some gains from this war, you know, I mean, he he hasn't, to begin with,

• 58:59Speaker 06

  for the first eighteen months of the war, he was more or less able to to kind of isolate the Russian public from the effects of casualties, but the war is becoming increasingly, is increasingly unpopular, and he's had to take increasingly draconian measures to stamp down on on opposition. If if it is shown to subsequently, if the the outcome is shown to be anything but a victory, he looks very poor indeed. And again, you don't, you know, however strong or insulated he may feel, just to look at again,

• 59:41Speaker 06

  post-Soviet Union Russian history, it shows that that you've, as a leader, you've got to be dynamic, dynamic in Russia, in other words, having success either with the economy or in some other way, or or you're gonna, you're gonna sink and someone's gonna come after you, and Putin knows that. That is why he wants to prolong the war. As long as there is a war, there is something to focus on, there's something to focus his

• 1:00:13Speaker 06

  his repressive measures within the country on, something to justify them by. Without the war, once it ends, there's, there's, there's gonna be a backlash, and he knows that.

• 1:00:26Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 1:00:28Speaker 05

  Yeah. Very well said. Um, I have one more question, having to do with Russia. I've heard, and there is another thought, that the reason why we're trying to reset things with Russia is because we want to drive a stake in between Russia and China. And that's why we're doing that. That's why we're being buddy, more buddy buddy with Russia. I agree that, I feel that's bullshit as well, but.

• 1:01:00Speaker 03

  Well, it's always, it's been a long-term policy objective, the United States, the Sino-Soviet split, going back to Kissinger and all that. It's not a bad idea, especially during the Soviet Union times, Cold War.

• 1:01:17Speaker 00

  Forget whatever plans you have this weekend because you're staying at home and playing on Spinquest. And there's never been a better time to sign up than right now. New users get $30 coin packs for just $10. All the table games you love with hundreds of slot games and real cash prizes. That's at Spinquest.com. S.P.I.N.Q.U.E.S.T. com.

• 1:01:38Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:01:46Speaker 02

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:02:15Speaker 03

  It's not gonna work. I mean, it's just not. And of course, ours is gonna cycle, right? So we'll have... well, we haven't really ever had anybody who was pro-Russian as president, so let's say that. But as it cycles, we're not gonna stay consistent, put it that way. The Soviet in China, I mean, excuse me, the Russian in China leadership is probably gonna stay consistent, considering they're autocrats. So it's just, it's just not gonna work. I mean, I think we could try to drive a wedge, but we just have to be realistic in the fact that it's never actually worked. And that coasting up to the Russians is only gonna last as long as it's at advantage to

• 1:02:59Speaker 03

  the Russians. So I looked up how many times Russia's invaded a country since like 1940, I think? 1930s, late 30s? It's like 11 times, including two countries twice, one of them being Ukraine. So like the idea that you can trust these folks for a ceasefire, I mean, it just defies...

• 1:03:22Speaker 03

  You know, Wikipedia, just Google it, look it up, right? So, I mean, the past is prologues, man. So if, if, if you want to see what they have done in the past when they've signed agreements or said they wouldn't do something and then did, there it is. Um, so be careful who you buddy up to. It's, uh, it is not in our interest, never has been. Uh, and at least with somebody like Putin in charge, it won't be.

• 1:03:48Speaker 06

  The, the fact that anyone actually believes that cozying up to Russia is going to help us against China, it just shows a level of ignorance that's beyond comprehension. You know, I mean, let's just be clear, Russia is a second-rate, ten-part fucking autocracy. It's a paper tiger. Okay, China is a powerhouse. We do need to be concerned about China, but dividing a wedge between the two countries, A, as Mick pointed out, is impractical, uh, and B, does us no good at all, and certainly not by cozying up to Russia. You know, I mean, let's, you know, let... Russia's our adversary. You know, we've said this before, Russia is not our friend. All right, NATO, the countries in NATO are our friend.

• 1:04:32Speaker 06

  The countries in NATO, as we talked about before, but I'll just remind people, because apparently there are still those who don't understand NATO. The only time they've activated Article Five in NATO was in the defense of the United States. And by the way, that was, that was a very generous extrapolation on those countries' part, so that they could come to our, our aid in Iraq and Afghanistan.

• 1:04:54Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:04:56Speaker 06

  It, it's, you know, I mean, what, Canada's our enemy now? I mean, come on.

• 1:05:04Speaker 03

  Right, and Russia's economy is about half of that of California.

• 1:05:09Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:05:09Speaker 03

  Right? If we want these folks, which have zero to trade, to be our primary trading partners, we're in a lot of problems. Um, they are everything that Andy just said, and, um...

• 1:05:24Speaker 03

  Just need to be careful with this.

• 1:05:27Speaker 05

  Yeah. Again, I didn't believe that. I'm just saying what I've been hearing in terms of like other shows and folks that think they're like folks that are in this sphere, I guess. I've heard that a few times and I'm just like, how does that make fucking sense? I mean, you just look at like a guy like Medvedev, who was like the president there for a little bit while Putin was, you know, running things in the background before he changed the constitution in Russia. You know, it looked like there was like a great relationship between him and Obama. You see him now, he's full on cuckoo, you know, full on crazy war monger dude tweeting off, shooting off tweets that are like insane if you read them. And the fact is, and we've talked about this before, Andy, you said it, like,

• 1:06:11Speaker 05

  he was full of shit then, just like he's, you know, this is who he really is and this is how Russians, the Russian power, you know, power players really do it. Like they're full of shit for the most part.

• 1:06:25Speaker 06

  It just frightens me, the level of ignorance, honestly, I mean, I in, within our own country and I don't know, I don't know if it's the education system. I don't know if it's the fact that we feel insulated by two oceans even in this area of globalization. Uh, but just kind of the, it, it's, it's more than lack of education. It's just kind of lack of real interest. It's as though we just don't pay attention to what's going on in the world collectively and it's, it's quite, it has frightening consequences at times. And watch, there'll be a deluge of people criticizing me now of being a traitor and undermining the United States and being a US hater and et cetera, et cetera, against whom, you know, I will again remind you guys that I

• 1:07:10Speaker 06

  spent 31 years in uniform defending, defending freedom, but on the behalf of the United States and obviously, obviously in, in a real terms, say patriot.

• 1:07:24Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:07:26Speaker 05

  Well, boys, that was spicy. I like getting Andy worked up and red hot. He makes for good, good podcast listening.

• 1:07:32Speaker 06

  Well, Tom.

• 1:07:33Speaker 05

  Um, don't forget to check out the show to subscribe to the show, like the show. If you're listening to us on audio, rate it and subscribe there. Andy Milburn, When the Tempest Gathers, a tremendous book. Read it. The link is in the description as well. Any and all of his links to Twitter. Just any link that you want to find Andy, it's in the description. Mick Mulroy, Lobo, Fogbo, doing great work. All of his links are in the description as well. If you want to follow Mick on social media, links are in the description.

• 1:08:06Speaker 05

  And yeah, this was great. Do me a favor, guys. Buy some merch or join the Patreon, patreon.com slash the team house. You get the team house ad free. You get eyes on ad free and early access. And if you join at $10, you get a patch, a team house patch, sent from you, from me to you. So, thank you, guys. This is great.

• 1:08:28Speaker 03

  Have a great rest of your Sunday.

• 1:08:31Speaker 00

  Happy birthday, America. It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American owned Spinquest.com. What's better than fireworks and American pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand and you won't lose your fingers. Over a thousand games, including slots and live dealers and $30 point packs are on sale for 10. Spinquest.com. Buy American players for American players.

• 1:08:56Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free to play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:09:02Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:09:37Speaker 00

  Happy Birthday America! It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American-owned SpinQuest.com. What's better than fireworks and American Pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand, and you won't lose your fingers. Over 1,000 games including slots and live dealers. And $30 point packs are on sale for $10. SpinQuest.com: Buy American Players, For American Players.

• 1:10:02Speaker 01

  SpinQuest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit SpinQuest.com for more details.

• 1:10:08Speaker 02

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses, like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at OnDeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:10:43Speaker 00

  Happy Birthday America! It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American-owned SpinQuest.com. What's better than fireworks and American Pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand, and you won't lose your fingers. Over 1,000 games including slots and live dealers. And $30 point packs are on sale for $10. SpinQuest.com: Buy American Players, For American Players.

• 1:11:08Speaker 01

  SpinQuest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit SpinQuest.com for more details.

• 1:11:14Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at OnDeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:11:51Speaker 00

  Happy Birthday, America! It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American-owned SpinQuest.com. What's better than fireworks and American Pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand, and you won't lose your fingers. Over a thousand games, including slots and live dealers. And $30 point packs are on sale for $10. SpinQuest.com: Buy American Players, For American Players.

• 1:12:15Speaker 01

  SpinQuest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit SpinQuest.com for more details.

• 1:12:21Speaker 02

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses, like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at OnDeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:12:51Speaker 08

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:13:04Speaker 09

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people 1 year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see Zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair.

• 1:13:47Speaker 09

  This is an advertisement for Zolair, paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:13:51Speaker 00

  Happy Birthday, America! It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American-owned SpinQuest.com. What's better than fireworks and American Pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand, and you won't lose your fingers. Over a thousand games, including slots and live dealers. And $30 point packs are on sale for $10. SpinQuest.com: Buy American Players, For American Players.

• 1:14:15Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:14:21Speaker 07

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.