TikTok, Espionage, and the Eurasia Group — with Ian Bremmer

We’re sharing Part II of our conversation with Ian Bremmer that took place back in June. Today, Ian discusses his thoughts on TikTok’s potential threats and the type of espionage he’s paying attention to. We also learn more about Ian’s firm, Eurasia Group, including its business model and clientele. Follow Ian on Twitter, @ianbremmer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Scott Galloway?

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• 0:49Speaker 01

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• 1:17Scott Galloway?

  Episode 187. 187 was the number of minutes where Trump did nothing to stop the Capitol siege. Dirty Dancing premiered in 1987. The Princess Bride also premiered in 1987. People Born in 1987, Zac Efron, Blake Lively, Kendrick Lamar, and Frank Ocean. True story, my girlfriend asked me to reenact that scene from Dirty Dancing. I agreed and went to a holiday camp and slept [BLEEP]. Go, go, go!

• 1:51Scott Galloway?

  Welcome to the 187th episode of the Prop G Pod. If you're a weekly listener of the show, then you know that I am on vacation for the month of August, scot-free August. Yeah, that's kind of a relief, isn't it? If you're new to the show, then let's break down how our pod usually works. Every Thursday, we open the show by offering insights and analysis of the top business stories that involve companies, products, and trends we're paying attention to. Then we bring in a blue flame thinker to help us make sense of the broader economy or society. But since I am out of August, je ne sais quoi out, je ne sais quoi in Saint-Tropez. I am not in Saint-Tropez. I've been to Saint-Tropez once and I felt like I was on the outside. I wasn't on a boat. I didn't know any wealthy oligarchs and I was just kind of roaming around town looking for $400 dinners. Felt

• 2:34Scott Galloway?

  like I was on the outside looking in. Anyways, that's my Saint-Tropez experience. And today's episode, we're sharing part two of our conversation with probably one of my three favorite guests, Ian Bremmer. We spoke with Ian back in June and had so much to cover with him that we broke the interview into two parts. Just this guy is just, just a great thinker, a big brain. He's kind of the Doogie Howser of geopolitics. He was at college, I think, at the age of 14 and then Stanford. Anyways, you kind of get the sense this guy's been, I don't know, running on 12,000 cylinders since he was a wee little child. In part two, Ian and I discuss the geopolitical threat of TikTok. We also learn about Ian's

• 3:15Scott Galloway?

  firm Eurasia Group, including its business model and the importance of employee retention.

• 3:29Scott Galloway?

  The geopolitical threat of TikTok, understated, overstated?

• 3:35Ian Bremmer?

  Well, I don't think that it's, I think it was overstated at the beginning when, you know, it was, we've got to ban these guys, you know, either they have to sell to a US corporation or we're not going to allow them in. I think there's a big difference. Between a tech company that is directly involved in critical infrastructure that matters for the security of the United States.

• 4:04Scott Galloway?

  The semiconductor is more important than a social media network.

• 4:07Ian Bremmer?

  For example, well, I mean, look, the funny thing is the Chinese consider a social media network to be critical to national security. Right. Which is one of the reasons they don't let Facebook into China. Because if you're China and and you, the Communist Party is the ultimate sovereign authority and they have control over what you can and can't say. And to a degree, they're trying to have control over what you say and and and can't what you can and can't think in terms of Tiananmen Square. I mean, young Chinese citizens don't even know what it was. Don't even know that it happened. I mean, the complete whitewashing of the genocide against the Uighurs,

• 4:49Ian Bremmer?

  the issues in Tibet, the Hong Kong handover and the absence of rule of law, the Chinese abrogation of that agreement. I can go on and on. If you're the Chinese government, there are reasons for you to believe that a social media company is actually critical to your national security. But that's not the way we define national security in the United States. And and at least, at least not yet. And I personally am thankful for that because it allows you and me to have this conversation on air and say whatever the hell we want. Um, now, that may not be true in 10 or 20 years' time. I'm going to fight like hell to make sure it still is. But as long as that's the case, it strikes me that TikTok is kind of part of

• 5:34Ian Bremmer?

  the general architecture of our economy. And while it should be regulated more effectively than it presently is. And I'm not super happy about what the driving dynamics of a of surveillance capitalism means for how those business models affect and infect our way of thinking. I don't have a problem necessarily with it being Chinese as opposed to any other sort of country of origin.

• 6:01Scott Galloway?

  The notion that the CCP doesn't have influence over every Chinese company, to me, just seems naive. I actually think our involvement around national security issues with big tech is more involved than we then is publicly acknowledged, but that's, you know, maybe that's me and my conspiracy theory, but tendencies, but I see a real danger here. I think TikTok, I think TikTok is now commands like 1% of global attention, and it's even more among young people. And they could just say to the folks who control the algorithms, you know, when you have a really thoughtful person talking about how capitalism isn't working, when you have somebody talking about how America has really lost its way and is fraying, and by the way, all that content is here and we produce it.

• 6:46Scott Galloway?

  We want to put the thumb on the scale. We want more young people to see these videos instead of Ian Bremmer thoughtfully saying, yeah, we have problems, but let's be honest, we're still doing as well or better than anyone. And there's, you know, just realistically, you gotta be, you know, the USD is stronger than it's ever been. We're gonna suppress those those thoughts and that content, and we're gonna elevate the other. It strikes me, this is a real, and I didn't think this three, six months ago.

• 7:14Ian Bremmer?

  No, look, I've given thought to the same concerns. I would tell you that to the extent that I am worried near term about how the Chinese might use such a network nefariously, I'd be more concerned about our political leaders that are engaging in conversations and searches in in behavior that is scandalous, that suddenly allows, affords the Chinese the ability to engage much more effectively in espionage and blackmail. I'm much more worried about, for example, our, that Democratic congressman from California, what the hell's his name?

• 7:56Scott Galloway?

  Don't know.

• 7:57Ian Bremmer?

  Oh, yeah, the one that was sleeping with Feng Feng.

• 8:00Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, anyways.

• 8:04Ian Bremmer?

  Yeah, what's his name? Come on, we need his name. He's an idiot. Um, but I mean, you know, that's not just him. There's, you know, how many hundreds of him's are there out there for Democrats and Republicans? It's not clear to me. I want to help the Chinese have access to that kind of information that they can use against us. Of course, by the way, we do that to them really effectively too. But that that's something that I'd be more worried about. Um, I Swallow, Eric Swalwell, I knew it would come to me eventually. I don't know why I somehow I blacked that blacked that name out of my my consciousness. But I am I am less worried about the Chinese putting their government, putting their thumb on the scale. And maybe for a slightly naive and old fashioned reason, which is that I think these companies

• 8:50Ian Bremmer?

  in the US and in China move so much faster than the governments do. Uh, I I think that literally the governments are playing catch up really fast to try to understand the beginnings of the influence that these companies actually have. And I'm not saying the Chinese government won't get there in five or 10 years. And then maybe we need to rethink what our rate policy needs to be as a consequence towards them. But right now, you know, when I look at the average member of Congress in the United States, and when they question Mark Zuckerberg in terms of like how we do and don't think about regulating the Facebook. Um, I I think that actually China's challenges in understanding what the hell a TikTok is actually doing are more equivalent than you think.

• 9:34Scott Galloway?

  So just by Ian was referencing a representative Eric Swalwell, who was actually a former presidential candidate in addition to a California Democratic representative.

• 9:43Ian Bremmer?

  Like two hot seconds. Yeah.

• 9:45Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, there you go. But this is essentially a honey trap. Hot woman finds him just irresistible and and anyways, goes from there. Haven't the Russians been doing this forever? A bit of a digression here, but this is the kind of the basis of.

• 10:00Ian Bremmer?

  Yeah.

• 10:00Scott Galloway?

  I mean, this is kind of the ABCs of spying or espionage, right?

• 10:04Ian Bremmer?

  Yeah. And all I was saying was, remember the Office of Personnel Management leak with, you know, tens of millions of accounts, and these were classified accounts that the Chinese had full access to. I'm, I'm simply saying that for me, a platform like TikTok and the incredible amount of data and everyone and their kids being on it, it just doesn't afford the Chinese government much more of that capacity. So, I mean, you know, do you want a hundred? You remember, I think it was a Chinese company that was trying to buy Grindr, right?

• 10:38Scott Galloway?

  I think, I thought they did.

• 10:39Ian Bremmer?

  I don't think they did. I think it was actually prevented for a national security purpose. And, you know, I expect it was like, let's make sure that they can't go after Lindsey Graham.

• 10:51Scott Galloway?

  That's, yeah, that's our, that's, by the way, that's our soundbite for Twitter. Um, that was great. Um, yeah, it's, it's, I find TikTok, I'm just, I'm fascinated by it and my sense is that they're sandbagging their numbers because they don't want people to know just how powerful it is. I think it's-

• 11:08Ian Bremmer?

  Scott, are you on TikTok?

• 11:10Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, I am, but I could slip and break a hip every time I'm on TikTok. It's one of those technologies where I just, it just makes me feel really old. I have trouble my crypto and TikTok. I, I, I understand crypto sort of, I sort of get TikTok, but I've aged out of both of those things. I can't wrap my head around. Uh, I will say that anyone, and I want to use this as a segue into talking a little bit about the Eurasia Group and your business. Uh, the, one of the keys to accelerating your business faster than the economy relative to your competition is embracing new mediums. And we have always tried to do that, even though it's uncomfortable and hard. You know, it's just easier to go on CNBC every couple of weeks or write an op-ed for Barron's or whatever.

• 11:52Scott Galloway?

  And you realize that if you want to grow faster than the economy, you got to embrace this new stuff. So, one of, we, we have a huge listenership of entrepreneurs or budding entrepreneurs, young people looking to try and allocate their most precious capital or, or human capital. And both of us, we were colleagues at NYU before you went to Columbia. And I had a company called L2 that worked with global brands on their digital competence. You work with global brands and large financial institutions and trying to assess geopolitical risk and then inform financial decisions and try and link financial markets with geopolitics in the Eurasia Group. And then one of our colleagues, Nuriel Rabini, had a global economic consulting group.

• 12:33Ian Bremmer?

  Absolutely, yeah.

• 12:35Scott Galloway?

  And we always talk about, there's a disproportionate amount of attention on unicorns, talking about the TikToks or, you know, the snaps of the world. There's a whole Main Street, I don't even call it Main Street, a whole University Street economy of businesses like ours that present real fantastic opportunities for young people. And then going into academia, or what I'll loosely call thought leadership, if you're good at what you do and you work your ass off, there's a ton of opportunities to build enterprises. So with that long intro, I would just love to know more about the Eurasia Group, the business model, how you guys generate enterprise value, how many people work with you, and just to understand Eurasia Group as a business.

• 13:15Ian Bremmer?

  Sure. Look, I mean, in a sense, the Nuriel Rabini analogy is a good one. Also, you'll remember, a little older than all of us, Dan Yergin.

• 13:25Scott Galloway?

  Yeah.

• 13:26Ian Bremmer?

  Who wrote the Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Prize, which was the book on the oil industry. And he started a company as an energy economist called Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Sera. They have Sera Week, which is like the global confab on energy, everyone comes through. And what he did on energy, I basically wanted to do and have done on, on global politics. The idea being that people out there increasingly need to understand how changes in the global political landscape are going to affect the economy. Are going to affect the marketplace and are going to affect their individual business. That's what we do. And we have, we do that by geography, we do it by, by theme.

• 14:11Ian Bremmer?

  You know, in other words, geotechnology and sustainability and climate and global health and, you know, all the rest. And we all, by sector, and we also do it in, in terms of macro versus micro. Um, and about 200 folks, uh, full-time, um, and

• 14:29Scott Galloway?

  200 people, so and is the product research, events, consulting? What do you offer and what's the business model? Is it subscription?

• 14:36Ian Bremmer?

  The product is primarily advisory work where we are, you know, doing a lot of, I mean, I write a, a piece every week that everyone that's aligned with us certainly gets and, um, you know, a lot of, we put out research when we think there's something that needs to be said that is broadly applicable that isn't in the marketplace. But that's not what, people aren't really paying us for that. That's, that's good to know the headlines of what we think and how we think. But to take that and then really apply it, you're, you're, you know, using us as you would a good law firm. Where, you know, we're getting to understand your institution and we're applying our knowledge to that. To those specific challenges, opportunities and the rest.

• 15:18Ian Bremmer?

  I also started a little media company, which is less about making money and is more about taking a lot of our proprietary research and our understanding of the world and trying to make people a little bit less anxious about global politics. Called G Zero Media. We have an events business as well that's aligned with that. It's also G Zero Events, that's a little more public facing. So a lot of other things that we're doing. Um, but the core of the business in terms of what's driving the revenue is that advisory work. Um, and, uh, and again, it's the interesting challenge that we have. Is we don't do business, for example, in China or in Russia. We don't do not, not just with the governments, but with the private sector companies either.

• 16:00Ian Bremmer?

  Because if there's no rule of law, the level of pressure that our analysts would be under not to speak their mind, not to write what they really think would be high. And, you know, if you're a bank, it doesn't really matter because nobody's paying you for that research anyway. That's just kind of like headline table stakes. It's more of a marketing exercise. If you're Standard and Poor's, you know, or you're, you're, you're Fitch or Moody's, you know, actually the, the people that you are rating are literally paying for the ratings, which strikes me as a conflict. But if you're us, like the authenticity of the research is literally the entirety of the product. That is what we do is who we are. So my voice must be like as honest.

• 16:44Ian Bremmer?

  I can get it wrong, but I have to get it honestly wrong. I can't get it wrong because I was in someone's pocket. That's the end of our brand. Um, and that has to be true for our organization as a whole.

• 16:55Scott Galloway?

  We'll be right back.

• 16:59Scott Galloway?

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• 19:23Scott Galloway?

  So you might have a crypto analyst. A hedge fund based in London wants to understand how China banning mining affects crypto or the shifting in terms of mining. You have an analyst that shows up, that might send research, they have access to a portal. Do they pay like a consulting firm an hourly fee? Do they pay an annual membership based on the access or the size of the company? What's the business model?

• 19:49Ian Bremmer?

  Yeah, the business model is usually that those, it's very rarely subscription. It's either monthly retainer, or it's project work, or it's a, you know, most, usually it's a blended version of that, where you're looking at what you're doing for the firm and you're putting together, you know, kind of like a proposal of here's what you really need from us, this is what we can do, and here's what we're going to charge for. So, I mean, usually to do good work for an organization, you're getting to know them for a few months before you're doing any actual work, and you kind of both understand each other's capabilities and needs, you know, before you start.

• 20:32Ian Bremmer?

  And I'd love to be able to bill every client while we're figuring that out because it it does take a fair amount of work and, you know, frequently you'll do it and then they decide to walk away and you've wasted that. So it's important as you're scoping and your relationship building that you're not just following any potential lead. It has to be credible. But, you know, we've been around for 24 years now. Companies know us. And so it's not like we're not coming in and having to say, you know, from scratch, let us tell you who we are. They know who we are. It's more a question of how we can be directly relevant to them. And the more we can apply senior people that in our organization that truly understand the business model, understand, you know, who they're talking

• 21:15Ian Bremmer?

  to, the more likely it's going to be a long relationship. I mean, the the the the upside of losing the occasional client before they become a client is once they become a client, it tends to be very sticky.

• 21:29Scott Galloway?

  And what's the friction in the business? Is it capital? Is it clients? Is it finding good analysts?

• 21:35Ian Bremmer?

  Oh, no, it's people. It's it's purely people. You know, when when you're talking about the the our our analysts are world class. And they, these are not people that need a job at Eurasia Group. Now, I can easily hire the best young people in the world, like coming directly out of a master's in international affairs from the Kennedy School or or CIPA or NYU. Those people all want a couple of years at Eurasia Group. But when you're talking about, you know, someone who's mid-career in their 40s, those people at my firm have all sorts of offers. So we are fortunate to have them and they can leave. And so, you know, you need to, you constantly need to be, you need to manage them well,

• 22:17Ian Bremmer?

  need to give them great opportunities. It's not just about comp. And and frequently they'll go to clients. And it's great when they go to a client because it builds a good relationship. But, you know, when you only have 200 people, and, you know, 40, 50 of them are like absolutely indispensable to a whole bunch of relationships, you need to make sure that those people are sticky as possible, and also that you have a robust HR network, alumni network that you can work constantly because 200, you know, Two hundred is not a huge firm. I mean, it feels big to me because in our field, we can do so much and we have a lot of brand on the back of that. I mean, I'm delighted with it, but it's not a big firm. We're not talking about like, you know, Apple or P and G. And so that I think the

• 23:01Ian Bremmer?

  when you're talking about a firm, it's that small, uh, human capital is just absolutely critical.

• 23:06Scott Galloway?

  And I've generally found that people who are outstanding content producers or sole contributors or thought leaders such as yourself, and I don't know this to be true, it's again, I'm speculating, don't necessarily make great managers.

• 23:23Ian Bremmer?

  Correct.

• 23:23Scott Galloway?

  Do you have someone quote unquote, running, I mean, you're clearly Mr. Outside here. Do you have, do you have someone running the business?

• 23:30Ian Bremmer?

  Oh, yeah. No, we have a C, we have a CEO and I will. So one of the things that I am best at is understanding that I should not be running the company. Um, and by the way, Dan, Dan, Dan Jurgen, uh, had the same. He had this guy, Jamie, uh, Rosenfeld, um, who he was working with with day, day one. Anyone that meets Dan knows that Dan should not be running a company as well. Like it's very obvious. He's a thought leader and he's a great communicator and he's external facing. Um, now of course, I, I don't know if you know this, Scott, but when I started the firm, there's no outside investment in the firm. So, I mean, this all started from, from me and, and grew organically.

• 24:06Scott Galloway?

  You never raised capital?

• 24:07Ian Bremmer?

  Never raised capital. So for the first five years, even 10 years, um, I, I just didn't have enough money or experience to, to hire a good CEO. Uh, but I did have enough money and experience to hire someone who was a bad CEO that was at least as good as me. Uh, and that at least took all of that off of me. So we could, we made some mediocre decisions, but we could still grow. We now have a world-class CEO and we have all sorts of management capability and I don't second guess those people.

• 24:39Scott Galloway?

  So what advice a 25 young person is like, I've got the certification, I've got the thought leadership, I love, I love being a bit of a wonk, I love writing, and I want to build a company and have outsized influence and economic security. What fields, what domains, what regions would you say there's a white space in in terms of if you were going to say to somebody, all right, the next Eurasia group should look like this?

• 25:07Ian Bremmer?

  I'd probably either focus on the broad climate space.

• 25:12Scott Galloway?

  Hmm.

• 25:13Ian Bremmer?

  Or I'd focus on the broad technology space. And when I say technology, you need to focus, but it could be biotech, it could be crypto. But I mean, it's the analytics of that stuff, right? And I started Eurasia Group and I applied it to Eurasia. That is, our name is from that part of the world because I got my PhD from 89 to 94. My God, I suddenly like, I was in the middle of 15 new countries that we had just literally created from whole cloth and how they were going to relate in a globalized economic

• 25:55Ian Bremmer?

  environment where the politics were not easy. That's how we started. If you were starting one of these firms, I wouldn't want to start too global unless you had a good reason to, because it's not credible for a young person. A young person needs to start, I just think you have to start with content. And the thing that worries me about some of the young people that I see starting organizations that feel a little like this is they go really big, they go really global and really like, I'm going to change the world from day one. And it ain't credible, like, just people won't pay attention to that.

• 26:34Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, the specific crowds out the general always say start with a narrow niche and expand from there. And I will make this my last question. Most importantly, what are you doing this summer? What does Ian Bremmer do over the summer?

• 26:43Ian Bremmer?

  I will go, I mean, I work for the first couple of months, though I'm outside a hell of a lot more, a lot of tennis, a lot of running every morning, but that's not so different. No, I'll be in Nantucket from the last week of July till through Labor Day. And, you know, all my close friends come out and we do some wonkery and we do a lot of barbecuing, a lot of beaching, and an enormous amount of outdoor activity. Like, I, there's, I'm usually, I feel fantastically energized, but also absolutely exhausted by the end of every day. And, and I'm a morning person, and I will fall asleep on folks at dinner. And for me, that is a sign of a fantastic evening when you've got your

• 27:27Ian Bremmer?

  friends around you and it's a great meal. And by 10 o'clock, like, they're all talking and you're sleeping at the table. That just feels wonderful.

• 27:34Scott Galloway?

  Ian Bremmer is a political scientist and the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, and G Zero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs. Ian's credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets, creating Wall Street's first global political risk index, the GPRI, and for establishing political risk as an academic discipline. He joins us from his home in, are you in New York, Ian? Where are you?

• 28:03Ian Bremmer?

  I'm in New York. I am, indeed.

• 28:05Scott Galloway?

  And his latest book, which is a New York Times bestseller, The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats and Our Response Will Change the World, is available now. Ian, thanks so much. Always really illuminating. And thanks so much for taking the time to do this.

• 28:18Ian Bremmer?

  I always love talking to you, Scott. Thanks so much, man.

• 28:25Scott Galloway?

  Our producers are Caroline Shager and Drew Burrows. Claire Miller is our associate producer. If you like what you heard, please follow, download, and subscribe. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you next week.

• 28:46Scott Galloway?

  Say somebody is us but 20 years younger. Actually, you're younger than me. 25, 28.

• 28:52Ian Bremmer?

  I'm 52. What are you, 57?

• 28:54Scott Galloway?

  I'm 57. Fuck, that hurts. Anyways, but I'm sorry. Thanks.

• 29:00Ian Bremmer?

  Well, I'm sorry. It hurts. I'm not sorry. You're 57. You know, I mean, you know, you're out there. You're robust.

• 29:05Scott Galloway?

  Here we go.

• 29:06Ian Bremmer?

  You're frequent and shirtless. You keep doing that to yourself. I don't know why you do that with me.

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