514. Who Is Profiting from Trump's Iran Catastrophe?

Are Russia, Israel, and Iran itself the real winners from Trump and Netanyahu’s war? Is Starmer right to resist more British involvement in the war? Will the Gulf states realign with Europe and ‘middle powers’ as a result of America’s latest exploits in the Middle East? Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more. __________ Go deeper into the world of The Rest Is Politics by signing up for our free newsletter HERE, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis and weekend reads from Alastair and Rory. Join The Rest Is Politics Plus: Start your free trial at therestispolitics.com to unlock exclusive bonus content – including Rory and Alastair’s miniseries – plus ad-free listening, early access to episodes and live show tickets, exclusive newsletters, discounted book prices, and a private chatroom on Discord. The Rest Is Politics is powered by Fuse Energy. To sign up and for terms and conditions, visit fuseenergy.com/politics. Get our exclusive NordVPN deal here ➼ nordvpn.com/restispolitics It's risk-free with Nord's 30 day money back guarantee ✅ __________ Instagram: @restispolitics Twitter: @restispolitics Email: [email protected] __________ Social Producer: Celine Charles Video Editor: Josh Smith, Adam Thornton Assistant Producer: Daisy Alston-Horne Producer: Evan Green Exec Producer: Chris Sawyer General Manager: Tom Whiter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Alastair Campbell?

  This is going to be an absolute case study of how hubris and ego and lack of foresight and mixed messaging leads you further and further into a terrible, terrible place. And I think that's where Trump is right now.

• 0:15Rory Stewart?

  It's just so difficult to explain why he's doing something that is so clearly not in the US national interest.

• 0:20Alastair Campbell?

  He's provoked a conflict over which now nobody seems to have much control, least of all him.

• 0:27Rory Stewart?

  This is probably the most dangerous moment we've had for many, many decades.

• 0:32Alastair Campbell?

  Do you think this is potential world war territory? I think we might be in it.

• 0:44Rory Stewart?

  Welcome to The Rest is Politics with me Rory Stewart.

• 0:47Alastair Campbell?

  And with me, Alastair Campbell. So Rory, we're going to talk about Iran, inevitably. We've had the big build up to Donald Trump saying he's going to be demolishing Iran's energy infrastructure. And we've then had the big seeming climb down based upon his claim that they'd have these productive talks with Iran. We'll talk about that. We'll talk about the developments since then. And we'll, most importantly, try to work out why on earth this is happening and why on earth it's in the mess that it's in. We're also going to talk about assisted dying, which I suspect may lead us to an agreeable disagreement. But if some of these peers were in the room, Rory, it would not be agreeable.

• 1:24Rory Stewart?

  No, you'd be pretty cross with them.

• 1:25Alastair Campbell?

  I'd be very, very cross, but we'll talk about that.

• 1:27Rory Stewart?

  Let's start with Donald Trump. So a few hours ago, we were stuck in a situation in which Donald Trump had announced that unless the Straits of Hormuz was open within 48 hours, he would attack the critical infrastructure of Iran. In other words, he'd attack the electricity infrastructure, presumably the water infrastructure. And it felt as though he'd completely backed himself into a corner.

• 1:47Alastair Campbell?

  And by the way, that would be a war crime.

• 1:49Rory Stewart?

  And it would be a war crime because if you take out the electricity and water, you're taking out the hospitals, you're taking out all the stuff that supports ventilators.

• 1:55Alastair Campbell?

  All the stuff that Putin has done in Ukraine.

• 1:57Rory Stewart?

  Absolutely. As Shoshana said. Why on earth does he do this? It'd be like saying to a classroom of three year olds, don't you do that? Because if you do that, I'm going to get very cross. And of course, in this particular case, the Iranian regime, it seemed inevitable that they would continue to stop straits for this. He would then launch his attacks on critical infrastructure. They had signaled long in advance that if he attacked the critical infrastructure of Iran.

• 2:18Alastair Campbell?

  They'd go for the desalination plants.

• 2:19Rory Stewart?

  They'd go for desalination plants in the Gulf. And desalination plants in the Gulf, the majority of Riyadh's water comes from turning saltwater into drinking water. So effectively, you would create a humanitarian crisis throughout the Gulf. Those places really struggle to function without desalination plants. You would then have refugee flows. So there would be people moving out of the Gulf to try to get somewhere where they can actually get new drinking water. And I was talking to someone in Saudi this morning who was talking about the fact that he'd bought a huge amount of water. He's got his car full of petrol. You would have refugee flows out of Iran because as soon as you start hitting the water nutraceutical infrastructure, you're pushed out of Iran. And that will go into Turkey, that could go into Afghanistan, that could spill over from Turkey into the broader region.

• 3:03Rory Stewart?

  And we haven't even begun to think through what that means for Gulf, what that could mean for Jordan, what that could mean for Iraq, what that could mean for Lebanon, what that could mean for Israel. However, you have just come to us with a breaking news that rather oddly, rather than having blocked himself into a corner in the way that one might assume that his ego allows no way of climbing down. He has, and this was a tip off I got a few hours ago from an official in the Gulf, who said, don't worry, Trump's not going to follow through on his threat.

• 3:30Alastair Campbell?

  And that is probably because somebody has explained to him the size of the hole that he's now in. And of course, what he's been trying to do, probably since day one,

• 3:44Alastair Campbell?

  is to think about how do I turn this into a version of Venezuela? And this is not us being very clever because lots of people said it, but we said it on day one. Iran is not Venezuela, Iran is not Iraq, Iran is not Libya. Iran is bigger, stronger, and the sense you get is that they've been planning for this a lot longer than Trump has. We might like to think that for forty seven years, the Americans have thought about how do we do this, but actually they haven't. They've been, they've been doing what Karim Sajipour, when he was brilliant on our special question time we did last week, and he was basically saying what the world has been doing is containing. Iran has been contained. It's not been great, it's not been perfect for the Iranian people, but that's been what they, what they've been doing.

• 4:24Alastair Campbell?

  What Trump has done with Netanyahu's support and active encouragement, because Netanyahu has wanted to do this forever, is he's provoked a conflict over which now nobody seems to have much control, least of all him. So for him to come out as he did, when he came out and said that thing, if you do that, I'm going to go after all your energy infrastructure, it shows you two things. There wasn't even any debate, so far as I could see, about, well, would that be again, would that be a war crime? Do you really want to commit war crimes and signal that's what you're doing? And then what did the Iranians say? If you do that, then we know where those desalination plants are, we can literally make things even worse for you regarding your oil price with the production that's going on.

• 5:08Alastair Campbell?

  Look, we could be wrong, but I think this is going to be an absolute case study through history of how hubris and ego and lack of foresight and mixed messaging leads you further and further into a terrible, terrible place. And I think that's where Trump is right now.

• 5:27Rory Stewart?

  Let's pause there for a second, back in a moment.

• 5:31Alastair Campbell?

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• 6:29Rory Stewart?

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• 6:40Rory Stewart?

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• 6:42Alastair Campbell?

  And I must thank NordVPN because on my Grand European tour with Fiona, I was away from the Hawthorns for West Bromwich against Burnley, but I managed to watch it. There you go.

• 6:54Rory Stewart?

  I actually had a NordVPN thank you. I was in the new Starbucks here in Creve and of course the thing flashed up saying this is an unsecured public network. And I was able to go to my VPN and it was a little reminder of something we often forget when we're all those cafes and things, which is actually genuinely people can do all kinds of weird cyber attacks and spying if you don't have a virtual private network when you're sitting in that Starbucks.

• 7:18Alastair Campbell?

  Well, I think you're not really sort of proud of me that I managed to do this. Or should I say Fiona managed to do this?

• 7:25Rory Stewart?

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• 8:42Rory Stewart?

  One of the questions that I was getting out of people I was talking to in the Gulf today is they are really struggling to understand why Trump did it. They can completely understand why Israel wanted to do it. Their view is that the Israeli strategy, admittedly, this is a pretty anti-Israeli position, but this is their view. Their view is Netanyahu thinks he wins every which way. Either it just establishes Israel as the massive regional hegemon, whoever has to be scared of, or you're forced to become an Israeli ally, stroke Israeli vassal, who just does what Israel says. So that's the strategy which says, we keep attacking Iran, we make things so uncomfortable that the United Arab Emirates have no choice, whatever they think of us, they just have to team up with us to protect themselves against Iran.

• 9:26Rory Stewart?

  Or you just destroy all the economies of the Gulf, and that doesn't worry him either, because there are people in Netanyahu's circle who say these Gulf countries have too much influence in Washington, they've been a countervailing force against Israel's interests. It actually helps us if these countries are suffering economic damage. So that's the Israeli view. Their question is, why on earth does Trump go along with it? And their... Talking, as you can imagine, to the most senior people, right? So they're talking to Jared Kushner, they're talking to Steve Whitkoff, they're talking to Marco Rubio, they're talking to J D Vance. And all of those people are saying, we have no idea. We're all telling him to stop and he won't stop. So they're all beginning to get into conspiracy theories, very reminiscent

• 10:08Rory Stewart?

  of when you're looking at what on earth he thinks he's doing with Putin and Russia. People eventually end up saying, has Putin got something over him that he's doing this? And now with this, of course, the conspiracy theories in the Gulf are all, well, has Israel got something over him? And why on earth has he? And the reason people ask these questions, I tend not to go down conspiracy theories, it's just so difficult to explain why he's doing something that is so clearly not in the US national interest.

• 10:30Alastair Campbell?

  Well, I think you and I agree that there are no real winners out of this, but insofar as you might think you could say, well, they've won, they've lost. The two that I think could say they're winning are Russia and Israel. Now, they might be the two countries that most of our listeners would not really like to be winning at the moment. Israel because of what they've done in Gaza, Russia for what they're doing in in Ukraine. You said, was it a couple of years ago, I think, you first outed the idea that maybe we have to face the truth, the fact or a horrible truth that Trump is actually genuinely on Putin's side.

• 11:11Alastair Campbell?

  Is it impossible that the whole purpose of this has actually been to get Russian oil supplies flowing again? Just think about it. They go after Iran. Iran is a major oil supplier whose supplies suddenly it's a lot harder to get out. And Iran then reacts. This is maybe giving Trump too much credit, given we actually say he doesn't think through the next step. Iran then does what it does in the Straits of Hormuz and the oil price goes rocketing. Putin suddenly is shipping out oil left, right and centre. And Trump, this is incredible when you think about it. It wasn't even seen as a big thing.

• 11:52Alastair Campbell?

  He lifts sanctions on Russia and Belarus and Iran. What he can do with the Putin thing, the reason why it wasn't screaming headlines, is because he can argue this isn't about a sort of geopolitical gift to my friend Vladimir. It's a, it's a case of market stabilisation to keep the world economy going.

• 12:10Rory Stewart?

  It's completely amazing. So I, I'm not.

• 12:12Alastair Campbell?

  Is that a conspiracy theory?

• 12:13Rory Stewart?

  I'm not buying into your full conspiracy, but I think where you're completely right is the reason why we're tempted to it.

• 12:18Alastair Campbell?

  I'm trying to find a reason.

• 12:19Rory Stewart?

  Well, there's no doubt he's helping Russia, whether his intention is to help Russia, but you're completely right. Russia is getting billions of dollars of extra revenue, which it desperately needs to keep its war machine going.

• 12:29Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 12:29Rory Stewart?

  The number one defence of Trump on Ukraine was that he was putting pressure on the oil price, keeping down the oil. It's a double whammy. It's sanctions lifted and the oil price has shot up above a hundred dollars a barrel. So Russia's making out like a bandit and the defence of Trump was, look, you can say what you want. Okay, he's not supporting the Ukraine war financially, but at least unlike those cowardly Europeans, you know, he's putting pressure on Russian oil and that's what really matters.

• 12:53Alastair Campbell?

  Which he wasn't.

• 12:54Rory Stewart?

  So anyway, that's all gone out of window. In addition, he is spending like a drunken sailor. The Patriot missiles and all the defence equipment that could be used to protect Ukraine against Russia. Now, President Zelensky is getting a loss of credit for turning up in the Gulf saying, I'm providing Ukrainian defence and systems.

• 13:13Alastair Campbell?

  And Trump is very dismissive of it.

• 13:14Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, I would also be very cautious of that because in fact, the problem is Ukraine is going to be in a much, much weaker position and it needs those systems domestically. Russia will be stronger. There will be fewer of these systems around and that puts it in a much more vulnerable position.

• 13:28Alastair Campbell?

  But that's the other means by which it helps Russia.

• 13:30Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 13:30Alastair Campbell?

  I mean, Russia is the clear winner out of this and it's almost, you know, it is always worth asking that question when these big international crises happen. Who is benefiting?

• 13:38Rory Stewart?

  Then let's look at who's really losing. Okay. So the first thing, of course, is the Iranian people.

• 13:42Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 13:42Rory Stewart?

  And we can't take our minds off what's actually happening when thousands of missiles are fired into a country. Lots of people are being killed. We know about girl's schools and a lot of infrastructure has been affected. We've had massive oil refineries going up in smoke, the revenue of the government collapsing and all that spills through into ordinary lives. But I don't think people have described fully or tried to bring to life. What this actually means for the Gulf countries. We've talked quite a lot about Dubai because that's easy to get our head around. I think we've talked about the fact that if you're looking to make an investment in a new data centre, let's say you're a European or American and you were about to make it in the United Arab Emirates. Are you going to do it now if you think missiles are flying in and the desalination plant could be switched off?

• 14:25Rory Stewart?

  If you're buying property in Dubai and you're about to live in a 50-storey building and you think the elevators aren't going to work and the water supply won't work.

• 14:30Alastair Campbell?

  Or if you're one of the tech companies in the United States. They're the ones that are going to have to invest all this money in energy. And if your energy costs are rising at the rate they've risen in the last month, then they're going to be hit by this as well. And I think what we're seeing is all are all these consequences coming through that I I'm absolutely convinced Trump and his people didn't even think of, or if they did think of it, there's been very little sign of it.

• 14:55Rory Stewart?

  Well, Qatar, their daily revenue is dropping by billions of dollars a day because they basically can't export any LNG. Their costs are going up by hundreds of millions a day because of the defence deployments they have to make. The missiles they're firing, the people they need to mobilise, all the contingency plans they need to.

• 15:12Alastair Campbell?

  And it'll take years to rebuild that thing that was there last year.

• 15:15Rory Stewart?

  Absolutely. It's going to take five years to rebuild part of their gas facility. That is a permanent impact on these economies, maybe a 10, 15-year impact. What you'll see is trillions of dollars of investment that might have gone to the US from the Gulf will no longer go. But it'll also affect actually Europe. Anybody who has been relying on partnerships with Gulf money will find that they're going to have to draw the money back into the Gulf to rebuild their own systems. They're going to be holding back on capital investment. They're going to be freezing new decisions. That's also going to have an effect on international development. So places like Qatar were some of the most generous contributors to different types of humanitarian emergencies, to some of the big international NGOs, but also the UN agencies.

• 15:58Rory Stewart?

  All these people, a lot of money from the Gulf has helped keep the international system going. That money is now going to be under strain.

• 16:04Alastair Campbell?

  No, listen, it's just on every level, this is a catastrophe. And then the other thing you haven't mentioned. Is just the economy for all of us. So like you've got Keir Starmer Monday, chairing a Cobra meeting, which we'll obviously go into all this stuff that we're talking about, but actually the main focus is going to be the Bank of England and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, explaining the potential impacts on our economy. Every government in the world is having that. This is what makes it so absurd that Trump, having launched this with Netanyahu and basically said, you're all a bunch of cowards because you didn't want to be part of it, now seeing the consequences of which these other European and other leaders warned him would happen, and now saying, it's up to you guys to, to, to fix it. So the Straits of Hormuz, you know,

• 16:46Alastair Campbell?

  you lot have got to come in now and defend the Straits of Hormuz. It's not, it's not down to me.

• 16:51Rory Stewart?

  One thing I think that we have to be very, very clear on is the UK must not, in, under any conditions, get drawn into this war. Because you will end up, if you're Keir Starmer, carrying the can for Israel and the US, committing war crimes, doing completely illegal, unjustifiable things. If you become a formal part of this coalition in any way, in any way, you will carry the can. I mean, imagine what it would be like. Let's say, uh, Keir Starmer got out of bed in the morning and thought, well, maybe I'm going to join a nice, you know, naval flotilla, which is going to help escort tankers through the Straits of Hormuz. And then you discover that actually it's not as easy as it was in the 1980s because these cheap drones and these

• 17:36Rory Stewart?

  speedboats can come up and they blow up one of your naval vessels. And you then feel that you have to join Israel and the US in strikes against Iran. And then your partners, your coalition partners announce they're going to take out all the power infrastructure and the water infrastructure, commit a war crime. Right? You're part of that now.

• 17:54Alastair Campbell?

  What about if, so like you had a situation just a couple of days ago where, and I don't know the, the background to this, but two people, one of them are in and were arrested trying to get into the Faisal nuclear base. What about, you see, this is one of the things we said last week, this is the way that asymmetric warfare works. What about a kind of what will be seen as a terror hit on the UK mainland? What about if one of those bombs had landed at Diego Garcia? What happened if one of those missiles did hit RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus?

• 18:22Rory Stewart?

  Well, the answer is you have to look at how the Gulf is dealing with us. And they're in a much more serious situation than we are. I mean, they, they quite literally have their citizens being killed, their essential infrastructure being wiped out, their economy being wiped out.

• 18:35Alastair Campbell?

  Hmm.

• 18:35Rory Stewart?

  And their conclusion is. We do not get drawn into this.

• 18:40Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 18:40Rory Stewart?

  We're not doing, and why? Because they'll be asking two questions. Number one, what can you really do which the US and Israel isn't actually doing? So let's say there were some attack in Britain, terrorist attack in Britain, or one of our bases were hit, and we decided to join this. How exactly would the UK joining this bring that to a conclusion more quickly? What could we do, the US and Israel? Secondly, are you actually increasing the threat to your citizens? Okay, so let's say some people were killed in an attack in the UK. How many people are you prepared to get killed in an attempt to respond to that?

• 19:13Alastair Campbell?

  Well, they're all big calls. They're all very difficult calls.

• 19:16Rory Stewart?

  But the Gulf is making these calls in a really tough way. So the Gulf, for example, has signaled Qatar will not allow the US to use its airspace or its bases at all. They can only be used for logistical purposes. Saudi claims it's not allowing airspace to be used, but airspace probably is being used. UAE appears to be providing more support, but all of them are being attacked.

• 19:37Alastair Campbell?

  So UAE, three hundred and fifty-two ballistic missiles, fifteen cruise missiles and almost two thousand drones. That's just the UAE.

• 19:44Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 19:44Alastair Campbell?

  And so, right, no, you're right. And but but all I'm saying is I think these are really, really tough calls. One of the pieces that really struck home this week, a guy called Phil Clay in the New York Times, said he was introduced as a novelist and a Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq War. You'll like his first paragraph, Rory, even if I didn't that, but I'm going to read it anyway. "I have plenty of complaints about the war I served in two decades ago. The Iraq War was ill-conceived, hubristic and marred by poor leadership at the highest level. But I did know why I was there. What exactly do our service members think we're trying to do in Iran?" And he then goes through all the different reasons that have been given, you know, get rid of the regime, get rid of Khamenei, degrade their nukes, degrade their ballistic missile programme.

• 20:28Alastair Campbell?

  Achieve peace in the Middle East. I mean, I saw Scott Besant the other day, the Treasury Secretary, who I'm sure is in the same camp as these people, saying to him, what the earth are you doing? And he went on television and was asked about these soaring oil prices. And he said, I think fifty days of temporary price rises is worth it to get fifty years of peace in the Middle East.

• 20:48Speaker 05

  I don't know whether it's going to be thirty days. I don't know whether it's going to be fifty days. I don't know whether it's going to be a hundred days, but to have fifty years of peace in the Middle East.

• 20:58Alastair Campbell?

  The idea that this is taking us to peace in the Middle East, because the other thing that nobody's talking about is what's happening in Lebanon. We had a piece in our newsletter last week from the correspondent in the Sunday Times about what's actually happening in Lebanon. The Israelis are openly briefing that they're taking the same approach to parts of Lebanon that they took in Gaza, in Rafa. Just wipe the place out.

• 21:19Rory Stewart?

  Yeah. So in essence, what seems to be happening in Lebanon is a advance to the Litani River. So they will effectively be annexing southern Lebanon, then creating what seems to be a sort of free fire zone right way up above the Litani River, right the way to the edge of Sidon. So this is recreating Israeli boundaries that people were talking about a hundred years ago. And they are doing an enormous sort of bait and switch where they're saying, this is all the fault of the Lebanese government for failing to control Hezbollah. This is a story beginning back to the early nineteen eighties. There's settler violence now happening.

• 21:57Alastair Campbell?

  Horrible, horrible.

• 21:58Rory Stewart?

  But the reason this has a bigger ramification is that the fundamental demand from Iran is going to be, we will not accept being Gaza or Lebanon. So in these negotiations that they're trying to do with Trump and through all their intermediaries, what they're saying is, yes, we can give up a nuclear programme. That's the one thing, the one kind of win they can give Trump. Although they're complaining that Trump's team doesn't seem to understand the technical specificities. So there's a real demand actually from the Gulf for the Europeans to get involved and try to act as translators. For Whitaker and Kushner to understand what the Iranians are trying to offer here. They will give up the nuclear programme, but their conditions are very tough.

• 22:41Rory Stewart?

  One of those conditions is they don't want any of these Gulf countries to continue to host US bases, which is almost unimaginable for the Gulf countries. But the second thing is not just that the US stops its operations, but that the US undertakes to make Israel stop. Because what they're not prepared to have is a situation, which is what they feel Israel did in Gaza, which is a ceasefire, or what they did in Lebanon, which is to say, oh, we're suspending hostilities. But any day when Netanyahu wants to get out of bed in the morning and bomb Iran, he gets to do it with no warning and no justification.

• 23:12Alastair Campbell?

  This piece from this guy Phil Clay, because he's struggling. He's sort of going through, well, is it this and is it that? And Rubio said this and Vance said this, and I can't work out what they're trying to do. And his conclusion, he says that the one rationale that has remained absolutely clear and absolutely consistent throughout is a delight, particularly for Trump and Hexeth, in American domination and violence. He says, "Power does not grow out of the barrel of a gun. Cruelty is not the same as strength, and a politics built on such ideas promises ruin, delusion about the limits of our power, and a betrayal of the promise of our founding." And there is something, when you watch Hexeth doing those briefings, particularly wraps himself in God

• 23:53Alastair Campbell?

  and starts reading from the Bible, it is a sense of the glorification of the violence per se. And I think that is why this idea from Besen, that this is the basis for some sort of new Middle East peace process, is literally for the birds. But these people you're talking to, are these the talks that Britain were partly involved in, largely through Jonathan Powell? Or are these the talks that Trump is referring to in saying, that's where we've made progress? Or are they one and the same thing?

• 24:22Rory Stewart?

  There's a whole series of separate conversations going on, and it's extremely difficult to coordinate. But the Gulf countries are trying to develop a unified position. They're very, very aware that their biggest threat, or they feel, maybe not their biggest threat, but they feel one of the big threats is divide and rule. The Iranians are trying to do it. They haven't really struck Qatar in the last two days, where Oman, they're frankly saying. Qatar and Oman are the good guys. UAE are the bad guys. They're trying to say, you know, because Bahrain is-

• 24:49Alastair Campbell?

  And where are the Saudis in there?

• 24:50Rory Stewart?

  They say, well, Saudis, they've been hitting harder, which is making Saudi very angry, and Saudis just-

• 24:55Alastair Campbell?

  And where are they on this suggestion?

• 24:56Rory Stewart?

  Multiatech.

• 24:57Alastair Campbell?

  Where are they on this suggestion that the Saudis were- Quietly happy that this strike happened.

• 25:03Rory Stewart?

  Well, that the Saudis are now denying. I mean, I don't have any insight into the centre of their government. And a lot of this is very centred around Mohammed bin Salman. If they did think that, they're certainly now denying it. Because it doesn't look like such a good idea anymore. They're trying to hold together there. And what they're trying to do, I think, is to think about what happens next. The likely scenario, I'm afraid, is the one that you're spelling out, right? Which is that Trump returns to this war and that he's actually driven by Netanyahu back into this war.

• 25:29Alastair Campbell?

  Or is he driven by events?

• 25:30Rory Stewart?

  Or is he driven by?

• 25:30Alastair Campbell?

  He's driven by the Iranians doing something, he's driven by a mistake somewhere else. You don't feel that anybody's in control here. I also think there's an opportunity. I mean, let me try something else on you. Is it impossible, do you think, for the leaders that we talk about a lot, Europe, Carney, Albanese, the new Japanese Prime Minister Takeichi, South Korea? Is it impossible for them to come up with some joint position? And insert themselves more deeply somehow into these negotiations? And the joint position starts from the premise that this war should not have happened. But since it has happened, we now all have to find the ways to bring it to an end. And so that means actually calling out Trump.

• 26:14Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, well, I think calling out Trump's very important because I think one of the problems that Starmer's got himself in is because he didn't speak clearly, he said I wouldn't participate, but he didn't speak clearly about his horror and condemnation, he's allowing himself to be portrayed as a coward. As though he's sort of weaseling out of it instead of taking a clear principal position. But the bigger point, I think, is a good opportunity, is that the Gulf countries will be looking for partners after this. They're not partnering with the US in the same way that they did in the past. They can't. Their view of these US bases has been completely changed from opportunities to risks. And they really appreciate what Europe's done. They're very grateful.

• 26:56Rory Stewart?

  In fact, in many ways, what it's taught them over the last two weeks is that Europe actually has been quite a reliable security partner. There's been praise for the UK and its joint air force squadrons. They're praising what the French have done, they're praising what the Italians have done. And actually, there are other European countries who've done, the Greeks have done stuff helping to defend the Saudis. So they would really like to come out of this in a world in which they really strengthen. And this goes back to your four cornered thing.

• 27:23Alastair Campbell?

  Alex Stubbs.

• 27:24Rory Stewart?

  They would like to bet on Alex Stubbs with a sort of European vision. And so there would be a huge opportunity to say, this is the moment to reach out to Qatar, Saudi, UAE and bind them more closely into a Canada, European, South Korean framework. But, but, but to get there, they're very, very complimentary about Jonathan Powell and what he's doing. They are horrified by the British Foreign Office and Yvette Cooper. For example, a statement was put out by the British on the Straits of Formos, where they didn't bother to consult with the Gulf before they put out the statement. With the result, they put out the statement, then asked these countries to sign up afterwards and found that a couple of the countries would sign up, a couple wouldn't, there was no attempt to coordinate.

• 28:07Rory Stewart?

  This goes back to my problem from the beginning of this, which is if these middle powers that have worked together, they've got to coordinate, they've got to talk to each other, show each other some respect.

• 28:15Alastair Campbell?

  Hmm. You know, we talked about Mark Carney, who I think is, you know, was one of the first ones out there and he was, he was kind of.

• 28:20Rory Stewart?

  Well, he was very, he sounded pretty pro Trump.

• 28:22Alastair Campbell?

  Quite supportive and he's now in a completely different position saying, we're having nothing to do with this. I just think that maybe there has to be, this has to become part of this sort of, if we are genuinely going through, uh, creating a new world order in which America is not a reliable ally and which international rules have to be re-fought for and re-defended. I think it's very interesting, this week, for example, Richard Herrmann, the Attorney General, who's probably the closest thing that Keir Starmer's a genuine friend in the government, close friend, going back years and years and years. There's a piece in one of the papers today and he's got a big speech this week where he's absolutely making the case for human rights, international law. And I don't know whether the speech is going to mention Trump by name, but it's very, very clear what he's talking about. He's talking about Iran.

• 29:04Alastair Campbell?

  Now, I think that that is at the right position to be in. But I think it's the opportunity to build, I mean, I'd love it if Keir Starmer and maybe got together with, I don't know, Merz and Carney and Albanese and said, let's have an international conference on. What international, what we mean by international law.

• 29:21Rory Stewart?

  And the Gulf, right? I mean, I, I, I don't, I don't, I don't want to leave the Gulf out because it's a miracle over the last forty years, what they've done with their countries. And they are vital to our security. They're vital to the global economy. They have so much to contribute. They're such important investors in our economy. It would be criminal, not to include, but where I'm worried, there are two things. First, the, uh, the British government would have to be interested in building institutional structures.

• 29:47Alastair Campbell?

  Mm hmm.

• 29:47Rory Stewart?

  So actually thinking about how you coordinate and create structures to coordinate.

• 29:51Alastair Campbell?

  We've done it before.

• 29:51Rory Stewart?

  Rather than doing things ad hoc. Yep. First thing. And that's, that's, I think, the question with Jonathan Powell, who's been an incredible national security advisor, but can he move from being the firefighter who's in the negotiations, sorting out the things to designing the institutional structure? And working out how Britain plays. And secondly, resources, the spending on our diplomats, the spending on our international development, which we'll get on to in tomorrow's episode, but Britain's not going to be able to do this, create these institutions, do this soft power, unless it's prepared to put some resources behind it. And all the evidence, unfortunately, is that Starmer both doesn't think in these big institutional terms. He doesn't like talking in big abstract vision terms, unlike Carney.

• 30:36Rory Stewart?

  But secondly, the evidence of the budgets suggests he's not prepared for any money behind it.

• 30:40Alastair Campbell?

  I sort of woke up in the middle of the night, this idea could be put together a coalition of the sensible.

• 30:46Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 30:46Alastair Campbell?

  To take on Trump.

• 30:48Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 30:48Alastair Campbell?

  You know, the other thing that's not.

• 30:49Rory Stewart?

  But you also got to stand up to him. I'm, you know, I was really struck. You, you, you saw some, um, people that we both know at the right of the centre of our security establishment. Who said, and I've been struck by this when we went off to see the Spanish Prime Minister, that one of them had said to you, well, what's going to happen to Spain when they get attacked? Is America going to help them? I then realised that that was exactly what the US Secretary of State shouted at the British Ambassador in Washington when Wilson refused to join the Vietnam War. This is a very old story. Fifty five years of the US saying, unless you come along with our illegal wars.

• 31:26Rory Stewart?

  We're not going to help you if you're attacked.

• 31:28Alastair Campbell?

  Hmm.

• 31:28Rory Stewart?

  And the fact that our security establishment is still believing that line, which I thought had been exploded in nineteen sixty eight, tells you an enormous amount about how vulnerable we are to being bullied and our inability to actually say clearly, this is a war crime, this is disgusting, we're not having anything to do with it, thank you very much, F off.

• 31:48Alastair Campbell?

  Hmm. Look, I think, I, I do think, I mean, look, you may not, you may have got very little credit for it, but I do think Keir Starmer's ended up in the right position. And it's interesting, I was at a, I was at three funerals last week, and at one of them, this guy who was a former journalist, now retired, and he came up to me and he said, God, I can't stand that Keir Starmer, I voted for him, but honestly, he really gets on my nerves. But I'll tell you what, I'm glad he's there at the moment.

• 32:11Rory Stewart?

  Well, it's definitely true compared to the, I mean, I definitely think, I felt James Cleverly, the Tory, uh, former Foreign Secretary was on the wrong side of this on television on Sunday.

• 32:20Alastair Campbell?

  Farage is so far, he can't decide whether he's in love with Trump or in love with Putin, he's all over the place.

• 32:24Rory Stewart?

  No, I, I, I think Starmer's much closer to where he should be, which is happening, but I think he could be much clearer. And if he talked more about values and explained why he's not there, it would be much easier to build these coalitions and mobilise.

• 32:35Alastair Campbell?

  Given he is a lawyer, I'd quite like to hear him make the speech that Richard Herrmann's making. My final point before we go to break, uh, the environment. Five million tonnes of CO2 equivalent has been put into the atmosphere by the military activity so far. I think this is the bit that always gets lost in, you've got those raging fires going on. So, anyway, I think we're in violent agreement here, Roy, that Donald Trump has made a complete ass of this and, uh, he's tackled, as they say.

• 33:07Rory Stewart?

  We want him, in this case, to back out. In a lot of these situations, we want him to back out. And this taunting him, every time he threatens tariffs or threatens to go into Greenland or is bombing Iran and says he's chickening out when he changes direction, is really dangerous because the one thing that drives this guy is vanity and ego.

• 33:26Alastair Campbell?

  He will have absolutely hated the clip. Did you see the clip by a gentleman by the name of Ibrahim Zolfagari, who is the official spokesman for the IRGC?

• 33:37Alastair Campbell?

  Trump, you're fired. You're familiar with this sentence. Thank you for your attention to this matter. I think a bit of that doesn't do any harm with Trump.

• 33:45Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, I I think let's just just finish on the final thing, which is this is probably the most dangerous moment we've had for many, many decades. We are very close now to a serious global financial problem. We are very, very close to a wider conflict driving towards third world war-y stuff. We have leaders in Israel and in Iran and in the United States who find it very, very difficult to come to any kind of compromise, have a very absolutist narcissistic worldview. They're nationalists of a very extreme sort. All the likelihood, as you say, unfortunately, is that we may lurch back into this and then

• 34:28Rory Stewart?

  it will deepen, right? The conflict will deepen because we'll start going deeper after desalination or widen because they'll start hitting more and more critical infrastructure. And our only hope is that for some reason, Trump manages to declare victory and go home. And then we have to make sure that peace remains, that Israel doesn't start it again, and that the Gulf and Europe create the institutional frameworks for peace. But that's a hell of a hell of a ask.

• 34:53Alastair Campbell?

  I was talking to a member of a European, not British, intelligence agency. And I said, do you think this is potential world war territory? And he said, I think we might be in it. And I think there's a very, very, that's my worry at the moment is this thing doesn't feel, there's not enough goodwill, there's not enough expertise, there's not enough people and who have the capacity to get this to a better place. And Trump, and do you know what you said about the Vance, Rubio, Kushner, Whitaker, all thinking that he's wrong? I mean, it's just pathetic. It's pathetic if between them, they cannot get this into a better place.

• 35:35Rory Stewart?

  And it still turns out that he seems to be right when he says MAGA is him, that eighty percent of MAGA still seem to be on his side on this.

• 35:41Alastair Campbell?

  Right. Well, to cheer ourselves up, let's have a break and then talk about assisted dying.

• 35:45Rory Stewart?

  Very good. That's the cheeriest thing you've said in a long time.

• 35:51Alastair Campbell?

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• 36:06Alastair Campbell?

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• 37:55Alastair Campbell?

  Welcome back to The Rest is Politics with me, Alastair Campbell.

• 37:58Rory Stewart?

  And with me Rory Stewart.

• 37:59Alastair Campbell?

  Now Rory, the last time we talked about assisted dying, we broadly disagreed. I am in favour of Kieran Leibert's assisted dying bill you were against largely because of your fear that people might be coerced.

• 38:12Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 38:14Alastair Campbell?

  Now, I think a lot of those concerns have been addressed in the bill as it's gone through the House of Commons, but I'm more interested in what's happening in the in the House of Lords, because I think it's an absolute abomination what is going on there. So, and I think now this bill is dead, it's not going to happen. Because what's happened, and there were major changes made as it went through the the elected chamber, and it's now going to fail because of the tactics in the Lords, which I think will damage the Lords, and it's already very, very low reputation. So just on the process, it's got to complete all stages in Parliament by the end of April, okay? It can only be considered in the Lords on a Friday, because

• 38:55Alastair Campbell?

  it's a private members' bill. There are only two Fridays left, it's had 12 days of committee, and it's only got to clause five of 60 clauses in the bill.

• 39:06Rory Stewart?

  And I think the Labour Whip in the House of Lords has said, forget it.

• 39:09Alastair Campbell?

  It's not going to happen. And and one of the reasons is that its opponents put down over 1,000 amendments. And it's taken so long, because Lords procedure requires that every amendment has to be debated if it is not withdrawn. And because the opponents have been filibustering, talking endlessly, making the same points again and again and again.

• 39:37Rory Stewart?

  I know you said when we were before the break that it was that it was Conservative opponents, but I've noticed even people like Diane Abbott are against it.

• 39:44Alastair Campbell?

  There are, there are. No, listen, I'm not saying it's, I think the I think the organ, this has been organised, okay? You won't be surprised to know that one of the chief organisers of this whole thing is the current editor of The Spectator, Lord Gove.

• 39:57Rory Stewart?

  Lord Gove is very worried about this, isn't he? I thought he was a very liberal Whig who didn't particularly care about these guys.

• 40:02Alastair Campbell?

  How it was described to me, and if I'm wrong, Michael, you can come on and explain yourself. I've not talked to Michael Gove about this, but how his position is presented to me by people who have, is he's not that bothered about the issue. He's not sort of, it's not one of those issues that he's going to go to the barricades for, the issue of assisted dying. But that he is very much in favour of the whole filibustering and the approach that they're taking to kill the bill. Why? Because Michael Gove loves being at the centre of political drama.

• 40:33Rory Stewart?

  I'm slightly surprised by this whole thing because I can see a particular kind of old fashioned religious Tory feeling that there are strong religious or traditional oppositions. But Michael Gove, I never really saw in that category.

• 40:46Alastair Campbell?

  So if you look at all these people, all of these hundreds of amendments, fifty six percent have been put down by eight peers, okay? The top three are Baroness Finley of Chlandaf, who I think is a crossbencher, followed by Theresa Coffey, who was the ludicrously the Deputy Prime Minister under the Ludicrous Liz Truss, and then the former para-athlete Tanny Gray Thompson, all very strong opponents. And okay, and one can respect their views. So these eight peers have put down fifty six percent, just to give you a flavour of some of them. So there's one down, that everybody should have a pregnancy test before being

• 41:27Alastair Campbell?

  allowed to have an assisted death, including men over sixty. Don't ask me how that's going to work, but that is an amendment which clearly has to be debated. The death has to be filmed, don't ask me. You should only be allowed an assisted death if you satisfy a panel of seven professionals, and if they disagree, you have to satisfy the High Court. Now, the bill has had more than enough time to get through, because by the time this is all over, it will have had sixteen days of debate, over a hundred hours, way more than most bills get in the Lords, and more than it had in the Commons, where a lot of changes were made. So these poor Lords have been getting dragged in night after night to listen

• 42:09Alastair Campbell?

  to speeches by, I'll give you the main offenders on the speaking front, Mark Harper, remember him?

• 42:14Rory Stewart?

  I do remember.

• 42:14Alastair Campbell?

  Tory chief whip, lost his seat, gets bunged into the House of Lords as a consolation, he's been making dozens of speeches. Sheila Lawler, know her? Right wing think tank.

• 42:26Alastair Campbell?

  Stuck in the House of Lords by Boris Johnson, Claire Fox, right wing libertarian, stuck in the House of Lords by Boris Johnson.

• 42:32Rory Stewart?

  Presumably this isn't some great piece of Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party strategy.

• 42:37Alastair Campbell?

  I don't know.

• 42:38Rory Stewart?

  It wouldn't really sit like that. This is a private members' bill. It's not Labour legislation.

• 42:42Alastair Campbell?

  I don't know.

• 42:42Rory Stewart?

  It's a private members' bill, but it's supposed to die.

• 42:44Alastair Campbell?

  This is a small group of people, I think, who have decided, and I wonder if part of it is the religisization of our politics to some extent, who have decided they're just going to stop this bill. Now, they may have, they may have very strong views and they may have good reasons and they may have principles. That's all fine. But when it's gone through the Commons in the way that it's gone, and when it is then going through the Lords and it is, you literally have people standing up making the same speech that they made before. And the difference with the Lords and the Commons, the speaker doesn't have that function to tell people to shut up.

• 43:16Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 43:16Alastair Campbell?

  Or that it's repetitive. You can stand up and talk for as long as you want.

• 43:19Rory Stewart?

  So, um.

• 43:20Alastair Campbell?

  That's what they've done.

• 43:20Rory Stewart?

  Is there no time limits in the Lords? I think there are time limits.

• 43:22Alastair Campbell?

  There are time limits, and then you just get Theresa stands up, Mark Harper stands up, and then Claire Fox stands up and they just pop up all night.

• 43:28Rory Stewart?

  One thing listeners need to understand is this is a private members' bill. It's not a bill which the Labour government got behind. It's not in its manifesto. So if the government was behind the bill and it was part of manifesto commitment, it would have to go through the House of Lords on Parliament Act.

• 43:45Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 43:46Rory Stewart?

  And if the government really wanted to get behind it, they can force this through the House of Lords. They've chosen not to for perfectly honourable reasons, which is they've decided this is a question of conscience. And in fact, the Labour Cabinet split on it. West Streeting voted against, others voted in favour, and the opposition from the House of Commons, I think they won by thirty one votes, so it's relatively close in House of Commons. So constitutionally, this is the type of bill which the House of Lords has the constitutional ability if it wants to block. The question is, should it, right? Now, I suppose I want to move it from the, are you, are you confident that you can distinguish your personal views on the bill from your constitutional views? For example, what was your view when, during Brexit, the House of Lords was buggering around

• 44:30Rory Stewart?

  and putting in lots of amendments to try to stop the House of Commons' vote on Brexit?

• 44:33Alastair Campbell?

  Uh, I probably was thinking, yeah, let's keep the debate going. But I think, no, I think I am, I think I am able to separate it. Because I think that. This is a bill that's now gone through every stage in the Commons. It has been substantially amended. So, for example, your worry about coercion. The measures in the bill now on coercion are stronger than in any country that has assisted dying. The the the costs element to the National Health Service, which I think are way exaggerated, including, I'm afraid, by West Streeting. I think if you look at other countries where this has happened, there's not been that cost. And the debate, the the other big debate that they pushed all the time is we should be focusing much more on palliative care.

• 45:12Alastair Campbell?

  The evidence of where assisted dying is now happening is that because it means people are talking more about death, that palliative care services have improved alongside it.

• 45:22Rory Stewart?

  So I think it's a good argument for always for institutional reform of the House of Lords. Uh famously, the one thing I liked about the House of Lords, which is the hereditary peers have been thrown out. So there's there's nothing really left.

• 45:32Alastair Campbell?

  Why did you like that?

• 45:33Rory Stewart?

  What's the only reason for it? What was the House of Lords? It's called a House of Lords, for goodness sake. I mean, what is it? It was a historical, traditional inheritance. It was like the monarchy. It's just part of our whole heritage and tradition.

• 45:43Alastair Campbell?

  But I don't know if you know this, Roy, but the monarchy was removed from political power. Do you remember that?

• 45:48Rory Stewart?

  Well, it still has some sort of power.

• 45:50Alastair Campbell?

  Soft, a lot of soft power.

• 45:51Rory Stewart?

  Um. So, no, I can't see the point at all of a house of a bunch of retired politicians. I would like to see something that was much more like the cross benches and I'd like to see it appointed and a proper scrutiny and genuinely.

• 46:03Alastair Campbell?

  Come on, then, tell me, tell me a great thing that the House of Lords has achieved in the last five years.

• 46:08Rory Stewart?

  Well, I think what it does well is it escapes some of the party political stuff and it scrutinises things more carefully. So during my whole time in the House of Commons, and I I was, um, I remember being attacked by Chris Bryant about this. He said to me, you know, I can't believe the honourable member is defending the House of Lords on the grounds that it's got more geopolitical expertise than, you know, the honourable member has geopolitical expertise, right? The quality of debate about geopolitics and strategy in the Commons. In the Commons was so much worse.

• 46:39Alastair Campbell?

  I'd agree it's better in the Lords. I'd agree with that.

• 46:41Rory Stewart?

  If you want to talk about war, defence, Iran, you want to be reading the speeches, mate, because it's got ambassadors and generals and spy chiefs and security chiefs and professors. But that's what it should focus on, not a bunch of politicians. Well, so what is it supposed to do? It's supposed to be scrutiny.

• 46:57Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 46:58Rory Stewart?

  Long-term thinking, consequences, deliberation.

• 47:02Rory Stewart?

  And and and I guess our compromise is the government, if it really wants to do something, can force stuff through.

• 47:08Alastair Campbell?

  All right.

• 47:08Rory Stewart?

  If it doesn't want to get behind it, well, it doesn't want to get behind it. I mean, why is Simon not getting behind this? If he wants to get behind it, he can get it through the Lords.

• 47:15Alastair Campbell?

  No, listen, he could.

• 47:16Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 47:16Alastair Campbell?

  And and I'm hoping.

• 47:17Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 47:18Alastair Campbell?

  That actually, as I think this will, once this thing finally dies, I think there will be a reaction against it. And I think whether the government picks it up, the government can do things. I mean, this, the sort of constitutional niceties can go back. This thing still can be revived, but it won't be revived anytime soon. So I agree with you, that the government could get behind it. Or might I suggest, Rory, that this is a classic example of where, when you've had the Commons vote for it, you then say, let's have a People's Assembly or Citizens Assembly on this.

• 47:48Rory Stewart?

  Citizens Assembly.

• 47:49Alastair Campbell?

  Classic. This is the sort of thing it should be used for.

• 47:51Rory Stewart?

  Citizens Assembly. I love it.

• 47:52Alastair Campbell?

  If you're looking.

• 47:53Rory Stewart?

  Citizens Assembly is the third chamber. I'm with you.

• 47:55Alastair Campbell?

  Rory.

• 47:56Rory Stewart?

  But institutional redesign. I mean, I'm I'm with you.

• 47:58Alastair Campbell?

  I was I was thinking more of a second chamber before it needs to go to those laws.

• 48:01Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 48:01Alastair Campbell?

  But let me tell you this. If you're you saying that it should be there for sort of long term thinking and strategic and all this.

• 48:06Rory Stewart?

  More hazard technical scrutiny.

• 48:08Alastair Campbell?

  If you're if you're asking me to put together the John Paul George Ringo of forward thinking on strategy, I am not picking Mark Harper, Theresa Coffey, Sheila Lawler of the one of those ghastly Tufton Street think tanks, or, dare I say, Claire Fox.

• 48:26Rory Stewart?

  Very good. Very good. Listen.

• 48:27Alastair Campbell?

  So I am furious about this damn thing.

• 48:29Rory Stewart?

  I I'm look, I'm not defending the House of Lords in the current thing. I think the bit of it that I like basically are the cross benches.

• 48:35Alastair Campbell?

  But do you still agree? Would you still vote against it if this went back to the Commons and you were still an MP? Or do you not think that actually the the the measures that have been put into it in the, as it went through all its stages, actually have strengthened it substantially? Because I do.

• 48:48Rory Stewart?

  Um, I think that the, you're absolutely right. It's strengthened it substantially. It seems to be now better than Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, where there seems to be a rapid expansion. I think the last stats I saw in one of those countries is almost one in twenty deaths is now assisted dying in one of those countries. So I I believe this might have been more like an Oregon model.

• 49:07Alastair Campbell?

  Mm hmm.

• 49:08Rory Stewart?

  They're trying to contain it more.

• 49:10Alastair Campbell?

  The numbers, the numbers who went to Switzerland last year have gone up.

• 49:12Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 49:12Alastair Campbell?

  You know, I think I think we've ended up in a terrible place because it's a it's a ridiculous institution.

• 49:17Rory Stewart?

  Yeah. Well, I I think.

• 49:19Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah, we'll tell you that.

• 49:20Rory Stewart?

  No, no, no, no.

• 49:21Alastair Campbell?

  No, no.

• 49:23Rory Stewart?

  I I I think it's one of these horrible things where um somebody in there will be definitely cases of people in really, really miserable situations. And I've always been supportive, I think, and this is probably where people like me get in trouble, of um doctors, in effect, helping people to to die when things got too bad. I mean, I think, you know, people, I think doctors were always expected, weren't they?

• 49:52Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah.

• 49:53Rory Stewart?

  Decades ago to put a bit of extra morphine and etc. So I think the idea that you let people go when they're on their last legs and you don't make them go through unnecessary agony makes sense to me. I think creating a whole legal framework where, and this is where I slightly agree with Diane Abbott, poorer, more vulnerable people. Now, I'm sure the people who did this bill will explain why it won't affect them, but um I I I I still can't bear the idea that someone might say, I don't want to be a burden and, you know, maybe I, so that's where I am.

• 50:27Alastair Campbell?

  Right, there we are. Ju- just on this um subject, by the way, um Tessa Jau, much loved, much lamented, her daughter Jess has written a really fabulous book about Tessa and about their relationship. Jess was her family was starting as Tessa was dying, so it's all that sort of sense of of life and uh and love and what have you. But I I just sort of had, I just texted Jess and said, what would your mum be voting on this assisted dying bill? I assumed it would be in favour.

• 50:58Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 50:59Alastair Campbell?

  But I just wanted to chat with Jess. So Jess is actually going to do an interview with our newsletter, um talking about these themes, big themes of loss and love and life and death.

• 51:10Rory Stewart?

  Let me just finish my final pretentious comment, which is that one of the things that's connecting these themes is the question of how do governments deal with complicated issues. And you were talking about how everything seems to be in a credible hurry in Iran and lack of thought. And how do you design institutions that get the balance right? How do you make sure you get the proper amount of scrutiny, but you don't end up in what the populists sometimes complain about with reason, which is too much process, too much filibustering, too much people getting in the way of making decisions and getting things done. And I think It doesn't matter whether we're talking about Iran, or whether we're talking about a sister dying, or whether we go on to talk about international aid or immigration in Australia.

• 51:51Rory Stewart?

  We're really struggling to develop political systems which get the right balance between getting on with stuff and having proper care, thoughtful process, and accepting that the whole point about our democracies is we disagree. And we need to create structures which hold this very weird thing in play, which is that you and I can disagree about a lot of stuff. And the whole point about our democracy is institutions where we accept that sometimes I lose, sometimes you lose, and we move on.

• 52:20Alastair Campbell?

  But you know, then you have something like Trump, who literally believes that it should all be done by him signing his signature. And that road lies some of the mess that we're in now. And by the way, I know he's slightly living in my head, but his reaction to Robin Moore's death, long-term public servant, who, yes, he and he did the report on Russian influence on Trump in his first election campaign. And he died, and Trump's reaction was, I'm glad he's dead. I mean, that is, there are some people who I've crossed swords with in the past, who, when they die, I won't say anything.

• 52:58Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, but you don't say good.

• 53:00Alastair Campbell?

  But I'm not going to say, I'm really glad they're dead. I think that reveals a really horrible human being.

• 53:07Rory Stewart?

  And then when Scott Betson was asked about this in this interview you were quoting, he refused, I think, three times to say that Trump was wrong to celebrate the death of Robin Moore.

• 53:18Alastair Campbell?

  Republican politician has condemned it. And just go back to Charlie Kirk's death, when if you didn't say this guy's a hero, they were talking about throwing you in jail. I mean, this is one sick, fucked up country, I'm afraid. Right, question time, so tomorrow.

• 53:33Rory Stewart?

  In question time tomorrow, we're going to return to some of our biggest issues of our age. So we're going to look at this whole question about how you get defence and international development balanced, in particular what's happening in the UK, where we have cut international development to the bone. We're going to talk about the extraordinary victory of your friend and a man who's becoming one of my great heroes, Peter Malinowski, Premier of South Australia, who's just won an extraordinary election, but which has also revealed that Australian politics sadly beginning to look a bit more like British politics. With the right splitting between a far right and a less successful right. And we're also going to be talking about possibly rejoining the European Union, King Charles' footpath. And we've got some lighter and rather fun curveball questions to come.

• 54:19Rory Stewart?

  See you then. See you then.

• 54:38Speaker 08

  The Great Game: Strategic Struggle Between Britain and Russia.

• 54:46Speaker 05

  We assess, Prime Minister,

• 54:49Speaker 05

  with high confidence it was Russian.

• 54:52Speaker 04

  Holding the Russians accountable is World War III.

• 54:54Speaker 09

  They took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people.

• 54:57Speaker 08

  Man in the Kremlin is playing, Alex. Got to ask yourself, do you want to play or not? You're the Prime Minister. You've done nothing!

• 55:10Speaker 10

  We would need to understand the policy context.

• 55:13Speaker 08

  All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today, disseminated into an operation order, or FRAGO.

• 55:21Speaker 11

  A FRAGO that says to kill the President of Russia?

• 55:26Speaker 08

  Yes.

• 55:28Speaker 11

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• 55:33Speaker 09

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• 55:37Speaker 11

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• 55:39Speaker 09

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• 55:43Speaker 11

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• 55:48Speaker 11

  Where Britain plays its strongest hand He's the best. Against its strongest foe. Go do it, Duffy! Bear Hunt. Available now wherever you get your podcasts.