Pod Insights The Impact Theory Podcast Warren's Wealth Tax Will DESTROY the Middle Class, America Is Spending on War While The Working Class Struggles, Trump Said "2-3 More Weeks" In Iran! | Weekly Recap About this episode What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:
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Tom breaks down exactly why this wealth tax isn't just a policy disagreement — it's a fundamental threat to how prosperity works in America. We're talking about a 2% annual tax on net worth above $50 million, an additional 1% surtax on billionaires, and a staggering 40% exit tax on anyone worth over $50 million who renounces their citizenship. And critically, this is a tax on what you own — not what you earn.
Tom and Drew dig into the Iran conflict head-on: Did Trump bite off more than he could chew? Was this a strategic masterstroke or a $50 billion mistake that destabilized our alliances and solved nothing? They unpack the real motivations behind the conflict — from nuclear proliferation fears to economic ambition — and ask the question most pundits are too afraid to answer: what did we actually get for it?
Tom breaks down why the war timeline was wrong from day one, what it means that we're already in week five of a "3 to 4 week endeavor," and why that single data point tells you almost everything you need to know about how well Washington actually understands this conflict. The big question on the table: boots on the ground. Tom argues that while there's theoretically a path where a ground presence works, the odds are vanishingly low — and the political fallout could be catastrophic. We're already watching historically Republican seats flip in special elections. A full ground invasion of Iran wouldn't just be a military gamble. It could be the end of the Republican Party as we know it.
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Transcript Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
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0:45 Tom Bilyeu? Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. If you guys are paying attention to what's going on in the government, Elizabeth Warren is putting a new tax proposal on the docket. And so just yesterday, she announced a new proposal that is completely insane. It's a wealth tax, not an income tax. So this, you're not being taxed on money that you're making.
1:28 Tom Bilyeu? This is a tax on the things that you own. It is confiscatory. It is the government stealing from you. This new proposal is another one in an endless parade of economically illiterate politicians that are robbing American workers blind. You guys, you guys are being robbed blind with deficit spending, fraud, and then they erode their own tax base because wealth will flee. The second you start doing this stuff, the people that can move will move. This is the ultra millionaire tax, as it's lovingly being called. It would impose an annual
2:10 Tom Bilyeu? 2% tax on the net worth of households and trusts over $50 million and an additional 1% surtax on billionaires. So net worth over a billion. Remember, this is all about net worth. The bill has 45 cosponsors in the House. It's led by reps Pramila Jayapal and Brendan Boyle. The tax base would consist of a household's financial and non-financial assets, stocks, land, things like that, all at market prices as the IRS determines it, which will, of course, absolutely crater when people go to sell them. Now, they will have to sell them to pay the tax because these are unrealized gains.
2:49 Tom Bilyeu? I'm trying to protect myself, obviously, but I'm also trying to protect the middle class. What's my North Star, a thriving middle class. I'm all about human flourishing. You don't have to believe me, just watch the things that I actually do. Now, in the bill to deter avoidance, right? Because that's the big narrative that the wealthy don't pay their fair share. Keeping in mind that only 50% of Americans actually pay tax. It's like the top 1% pays something like 90% of the taxes. It's absurd. So that whole argument is just completely ridiculous. And let's also remember, underlying all of this, you don't have a balanced budget. And so instead of saying, hey, let's get our together like we would expect of any American.
3:30 Tom Bilyeu? Let's balance our budget first and then seek additional tax revenue. Now, to avoid deterrent or to deter avoidance, the bill has proposed a 40% exit tax on anyone worth more than $50 million who renounces their American citizenship. Now, to me, this is like the new Boston Tea Party. This, this is the line in the sand. Like this will, I'll just completely change my life around this because it's so ridiculous. And is the nail in the coffin of the middle class. It will not come back. You will spend 100 years as a backwater nation. And so, yeah, just brace yourselves for that. If you don't believe me, go look at the history of people that went from second, third biggest economy in the world to just falling off an absolute cliff. Argentina being one of the most profound examples, just absolutely tragic. If you look at it regionally, same thing.
4:15 Tom Bilyeu? You have Cuba thriving and then completely backwards now for what 50, 60, 70 years? Something like that. When it happens, it happens and it happens for a very long time. Now, anybody that can propose this kind of thing, they're they are showing you a stunning lack of how unrealized gains works. This is like telling someone that if they want to own a car, they have to give over the carburetor in order to have the car. You have to break the car apart to pay the fee for owning the car. It doesn't make any sense. One of two people is going to bat for this. Somebody who is stunningly economically illiterate. Do not let those people run your country. Number two, someone who would like to destroy your country because they believe that prosperity itself is the problem.
4:58 Tom Bilyeu? Both of those people, literally, get them all the out. This is so crazy. If we elect people that actually want to destroy the economy, we are going to go down very rapidly. There's a notion here called mark to market taxation. When you're looking at the unrealized gains, you say, hey, what's the market value if they were to sell this? So this requires the annual valuation of assets that lack a clear sale price. Normally, we just say, well, you sold it. That's when we're going to tax you. So now we know, we don't have to guess. That's what it's sold for. Okay? Doing this this way, not having an actual sale price is exceedingly complex, potentially quite economically damaging, by the way.
5:38 Tom Bilyeu? It may necessitate the liquidation of some or all of the assets to pay the taxes on the valuation. I bet the people proposing this bill hate big corporations. But guess what? Wealth taxes will 100% lead to less market competition, make the corporations that they hate much bigger. It's going to massively increase corporate consolidation because a small business will not have the cash to pay their tax bill. I get that these ideas sound good on paper, but the reality is they end up hurting the average person. When you have a government that refuses to balance its budget and thinks that it can just tax its way to prosperity,
6:21 Tom Bilyeu? the builders stop building, they leave, and the tax base begins to dwindle. I don't need you to look any farther than going back three years in New York City. Not, oh, I wonder if this will happen. It's happening right now.
6:32 Speaker 01 Chat has kind of been mixed all over the place with this topic so far. I'm noticing on both sides of people who like it and people who don't like it. Well, if this doesn't pass, should we then do things such as closing loopholes that hurt the middle class? Or prevent the rich from being able to get loans against their assets as a way around their taxes?
6:51 Tom Bilyeu? So wild, guys, balance the budget. The way that your money gets stolen from you, and it is being stolen from you, is through a very simple mechanism. That mechanism is money printing. You money print because you're deficit spending. If you're not deficit spending, you don't have to money print. Once people understand your money's not being stolen from you because the wealthy aren't paying their fair share and they're avoiding taxes. If your mentality is it's never enough and I don't need to be held accountable to my results. Just give me more money and the act of giving me more money is the only thing that matters, which is how we govern right now. Remember, the reason the wealthy are getting wealthier at a runaway pace is because of deficit spending and money printing.
7:34 Tom Bilyeu? It is not because they have done something wrong that they are taking money out of somebody else's pocket. It is because money has to go somewhere to hide from money printing. So if you have money and you're just saving it in your bank right this very minute, you're being stolen from because we're money printing. Right now, the numbers, at least this is pre-war, at least $40 billion a month just created out of thin air. Right now, that's standing policy. That's where your money's going. You have to balance your budget at some point, right? At some point, you simply must balance your budget because you will run out of money.
8:10 Speaker 01 A lot of the chat has been bringing up everyone's favorite Texas transplant and saying Elon Musk, he gets to take out hundreds of billions of dollars in loans against these stocks. How in any way does that not harm the middle class?
8:23 Tom Bilyeu? Yeah, tax it.
8:24 Speaker 01 How much would you say tax it though? Like what if you were to label how that system would work?
8:28 Tom Bilyeu? Just treat it like he's taking capital out. You're not going to tax it at the full rate because or tax it at the full rate, but let him deduct the interest. Sure. And by the way, that's people actually understanding how the economy works because that creates like if he borrows $200 billion, whatever against his assets, that $200 billion just poof, came out of nowhere. It didn't exist and now it exists. So it's an inflationary event. Now, if it's one to one with productivity, you don't really feel it. The odds that all of this stuff would be one to one with productivity is effectively zero because so much money is driving up the value of that stuff because they're trying to hide from inflation. But yeah, I have no beef with that. Let's go.
9:05 Speaker 01 We're talking a lot about balancing the budget.
9:07 Tom Bilyeu? Uh huh.
9:08 Speaker 01 From your perspective, if you were in a position to balance the budget, what would that actually look like? And how is the middle class, like what should we be asking for?
9:16 Tom Bilyeu? This would be something that for I'm going to give you an answer because I hate it when people dodge questions. But to have a real answer, you need somebody that actually has access to the budget, where we're spending money, all of that. And so I don't know all of the line items. But the things that I would look at will go something like this. Your education system is so flawed that you're almost hopeless. So I would be starting there. Anywhere where there's a strong driving union inside of a governmental agency, I'm going to be looking at that because I need to see outcomes that justify the expense. We spend more per student than almost anywhere else on earth. I think we do spend more. I don't even think it's like, I think we spend more than anywhere else on earth and we're routinely in the middle of the pack. You're almost certainly going to have to raise the retirement age. So we have a demographic problem.
9:59 Tom Bilyeu? Right now we are a column and the way that meaning we have as many old people as mid as young and it's slowly inverting. And so it's doing this. And over time, we're going to get to the point, if our birth rates continue, where we've got way more old people that are outside of the workforce. And so you've got to keep people in the workforce longer. We have an obscene amount of fraud. I'm going to guess it's hundreds of billions, if not edging up to a trillion dollars. And that's annually. And we will have to get that down as much as you can. I don't think anybody's ever going to get it to zero, but you're going to need to get it much, much, much lower. Then we're going to have to continue to deregulate so that we can actually generate more revenue. More taxes without having to increase the percentage, which is where you run into trouble.
10:42 Tom Bilyeu? If you actually want to generate more tax revenue, then you just need more revenue at the same tax rate. If you focus on that, good things come of it. If you focus the other way around, all kinds of bad things come of it. But there are going to be consequences to deregulating. Now, I don't think that we're anywhere near any of those consequences being bad right now. I think that we've got an absolute absurd amount of regulations. But just know that everything is going to be a set of trade offs. We're probably also going to need to free up some economic bandwidth by doing things like some debt forgiveness based on some things, some soft defaulting. We'll have to work through that well as that isn't going to be easy. But that's where I would start.
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13:57 Speaker 02 Marco Rubio is catching some heat for what he said about negotiations with Iran.
14:01 Speaker 03 Imagine in Iran that instead of spending their wealth, billions of dollars supporting terrorists or weapons, had spent that money helping the people of Iran, you'd have a much different country.
14:11 Speaker 02 People are kind of highlighting the hypocrisy of that.
14:13 Tom Bilyeu? Yeah, this is where we are going to have to decide as a globe, what values actually matter. For a long time, we believed that Western values were worth killing a lot of people for. And now we are backing off of that and ultimately we're going to have to decide what we're willing to fight for because it's not always going to be, oh, there's an existential threat and it's very clear and so we go in and do our thing. There is a reality to be faced that if your enemy does not share your values and you let them get militarily strong, that ultimately they can tell you what to do. And so this is the part that confuses me. Americans have somehow gotten into their heads and Europeans that it's perfectly fine for somebody else to get strong and ultimately tell them what to do because they've lost
14:58 Tom Bilyeu? Faith in their own values and they're somehow still thinking that well they're just gonna leave us be no they're not mother Like they are going to take you over even if only just culturally and I don't think people understand that A culture is a thing that you have to defend if you don't indoctrinate the next generation with those values then they simply won't have those values And whatever country that believes in their values enough to say I'm going to build a military to protect my values They will ultimately end up having the influence on the world. This is exactly why the US was able to have the kind of influence that we had. We were the strongest economically. We were the strongest from a manufacturing standpoint. We had the clearest vision of our
15:40 Tom Bilyeu? Own identity in terms of value set. And so we're like, yeah, we're not going to let the Nazis or the Japanese take over the world. We just, we don't stand for fascism. And so we're willing to put our lives on the line to make sure that that doesn't spread. Same with communism. Now we don't have that belief and there are going to be consequences to that. Right now, I think people in the West are actually perfectly fine with that. They either don't know how to think through the problem well, or they are perfectly happy for somebody else to go, well, I do believe in what I stand for. And I am willing to kill a lot of people in the name of that. And so they're just gonna back down. That to me is wild, but I'm a product of the eighties. I understand that. I am well aware of how generations work and young people
16:21 Tom Bilyeu? Get the world that they're willing to fight for. And if they're not willing to articulate, this is my value set and I'm willing to die for it. Then they will get killed by the person that is willing to fight and die for their value set. Just is what it is.
16:33 Speaker 02 I agree from a philosophical standpoint, but I think practically what's happening right now in Iran is Trump did bite off more than he can chew. It's okay. It's mega. Don't trip. You know, Trump did a lot of great things for you guys, but he did. He was a bit more hubris than he needed to be in this one situation. He now is trying to solve a problem he himself created. Cause the straight was completely open with no tools. There was no, there was no problem. Iran hasn't attacked anybody, hasn't done any Specific attacks against another country since the 1970s and in the 1970s.
17:03 Tom Bilyeu? So you totally discount proxies.
17:05 Speaker 02 I do discount proxies because that would say then we attacked Russia. Attack China and I would say that we never directly attacked people either.
17:11 Tom Bilyeu? We can.
17:12 Speaker 02 If you're going proxy, you can't proxy on one side. It's proxy both ways.
17:15 Tom Bilyeu? Yes, and I would say that it is proxy both ways and that this is exactly what I'm talking about. The war with Iran is a war of values and so people don't want it to be about that. People do not want to talk about the.
17:26 Speaker 02 What's the value that happened that needed it to happen right now?
17:29 Tom Bilyeu? Well, I think that is probably the wrong argument. I think the real reason this happened right now is economic and has to do with Trump wanting to be on Mount Rushmore. I think that's real. What's the background thing that they're trying to, that is both true and they're going to use as a cover story? It's not the real reason that they did it right now, but it is the background cover story that's been real for a long time, which is they're a theocratic regime that really does believe God wants them to destroy the US and Israel. Destroy, wipe off the map. They are clearly trying to get nuclear weapons. Now, if there was no beef and there was no conflict and everything was perfectly fine, why does Iran want nuclear weapons?
18:12 Tom Bilyeu? The only reason to get a nuclear weapon is to be able to defend yourself against other nuclear states, to be able to posture and be aggressive as you see fit. Nobody else in the GCC other than Israel has nuclear weapons. If Iran left them alone, I don't see any reason to believe that Israel was going to do a preemptive strike on Iran with nuclear weapons. You've got a state that is the largest state sponsor of terror in the world. I don't, there's no credible voice that says, what are you talking about? Iran's just misunderstood. They're not doing that. Everybody's like, yes, this is true. They are trying to get nuclear weapons and we've been saying for a very long time, everybody will, everybody in the West will agree. That's like a hard and fast line. We only disagree on whether they were about to do it right now.
18:55 Tom Bilyeu? But nobody's like, yeah, of course Iran should be able to have nuclear weapons. That comes down to, well, are we prepared to fight about it? Like, do we want, like, if we could snap our fingers and say only one country in the world can have nuclear weapons? Who do we want it to be? What country are we going to give the nukes to? I think right now, people are saying it shouldn't be America. But just to be clear, for the. Last eighty ish years, I think people would have said, yes, it should be America. And it's been a tragedy that other countries have gotten nuclear weapons. Now, that's a very much American perspective. And I understand that each country, many people in their country will want it to have been theirs. But the global community as a whole got to enjoy untold prosperity for almost eighty years.
19:40 Tom Bilyeu? And that's the part I don't want anybody glossing over. Now, America had to go do horrifically morally unjustifiable things. But the result has been globalization. While it worked, it was extraordinary. For reasons that are articulatable, it was inevitable that it was going to stop working. We're now in the it stopped working part of the game, but that was extraordinary. And everybody agreed the reason that this was awesome is because of Western Enlightenment values. You can really kind of boil it down like this. It is very difficult to know what is true, but identifying what is true is hugely advantageous. Therefore, you must let people be free to explore being wrong. That the individual should be sovereign, should not have the boot of the government on its neck.
20:22 Tom Bilyeu? Scientific inquiry should be free and from that comes innovation. From that comes prosperity. We should do the things that we can do to free up entrepreneurs, to create and to innovate. And that will propel society forward. That used to be the set of values that we said, we're willing to fight and die for that. Now we're saying, mm, not so much. And you've got people waving at the No Kings rallies, waving sickle and hammer flags. That is a level of absurdity where we're saying the new value set is the weak must inherit the earth. And if we have to kill tens of millions of people to ensure that the weak inherit the earth, then we'll kill tons of millions of people. And so that is so crazy to me and so outlandish to me that I spend an inordinate amount of my time
21:08 Tom Bilyeu? trying to figure out where I need to take my wife to be safe in a world where that ideology takes hold. Cause it sure as hell isn't California and it may not be America. But right now it feels like only sufficient pain will cause young people of future generations to be like, yeah, that didn't work. And then they'll rebound, but it takes roughly a hundred years. Okay.
21:28 Speaker 02 A lot of things on the table right there. So you started at the end about the young people and how they need to have sufficient pain in order to feel it. But I think if we go upstream from that, use the great analogy of if you're at the bottom of a waterfall and you keep seeing a bunch of dead bodies, eventually you have to go up the waterfall and see where those dead bodies came from. And I think that from a systemic standpoint, the opportunities that were afforded to our parents, to the people in the previous generations are no longer afforded to us. We're told, stop avocado toasting and everything will be prosperous. Where the house, houses are four times as expensive, rent, cars, everything is four to five times expensive, but wages are 1.5 times higher than they were. So they're not keeping up or getting lost. We could blame the Fed, that's cool, but the Fed was there in the eighties too. It was okay in the eighties, it was okay in the nineties, it was okay in the early 2000s. Now in the 2020s, they're really feeling the pain of that. Now we go back to Iran and Iran.
22:12 Speaker 02 No, you, you, you had a tirade with seven things. You can't stop on the one thing because we were talking about Iran and Israel.
22:17 Tom Bilyeu? I'll set something here as a reminder.
22:19 Speaker 02 Okay.
22:19 Tom Bilyeu? The, you're missing something so important in the thing that you just laid down. And it's the very fact that people don't understand why what you just said is catastrophically wrong that creates all the problem.
22:30 Speaker 02 Okay, what's the catastrophic?
22:31 Tom Bilyeu? Happy to move on.
22:31 Speaker 02 No, no, what's the catastrophically wrong? Because that's, that's a big adjust, that's a big.
22:34 Tom Bilyeu? This is, I, I don't have a perfect analogy, so I'll give you an imperfect one. The way that people are responding to the very broken economy, as you are very appropriately laying out, is like a woman who's being beaten by her husband. And she's like seeing a therapist and she's like, I, I don't know what it is. I am so anxious. And the therapist is like, okay, well, your husband is beating you, so couldn't that be the problem? And the person is like, no, in fact, it's the opposite. Seeing how strong my husband is makes me feel safe. And so, yes, like I don't, there's a lot of pain involved with being beaten, but I need to know that my husband is strong and going to protect me.
23:13 Speaker 02 And that's the notion that the communists and socialists want more spending that will put us in more deficit spending and that would increase the budget.
23:19 Tom Bilyeu? They want to be beaten harder to make sure that their husband is as strong as they think he is. And I'm just like, nope, the problem is you're being beaten.
23:26 Speaker 02 And I would push back on that. That says the 20 to 50 billion that we just spent on the war. We spent that on a workforce training program. The engineers and mechanics that the Ford CEO is complaining he doesn't have, he could have gotten.
23:37 Tom Bilyeu? Yeah. Just not true. So Drew, this, this is.
23:41 Speaker 02 It's not true. Why is that not true?
23:43 Tom Bilyeu? Because if you're deficit spending, it doesn't matter what you spend on, it's just bad. And so you can deficit spend, like, let's say I go, but I've made the bridges incredible. You have like all this daycare. Yes, I get it.
23:58 Speaker 02 I'm using China, China's example.
23:59 Tom Bilyeu? You take your food stamps and you're starving because there's actually no food on the shelves. But look at the bridge, man. That bridge is beautiful. You can get to the other side and starve to death over there, much easier than you could before. And I'm just, no, no, no. This is what actually happens.
24:15 Speaker 02 But those aren't direct, those aren't direct correlations, though.
24:18 Tom Bilyeu? Yes, they are.
24:19 Speaker 02 Because.
24:19 Tom Bilyeu? They're, they're not only correlations, they're causation.
24:22 Speaker 02 What I'm saying is there's money that's allocated that's already spent, that the impact of their inflation that is already created, it's already generated, it's already there, it's already on the shelf.
24:29 Tom Bilyeu? Yes.
24:29 Speaker 02 Now, if I could take that money and if I kill a bunch of brown people, that helps, that helps absolutely nobody in America. But if I take that money and I invest in a bunch of people, it could be white, it could be brown, I don't care what color it is, it's American.
24:40 Tom Bilyeu? Yes.
24:41 Speaker 02 Those people can at least be on the top side of the K and they can be looking down on the bottom side of the K.
24:44 Tom Bilyeu? They won't be on the top side of the K.
24:46 Speaker 02 Because upward mobility will still be invested in, there'll still be an opportunity for them to get to the next point.
24:50 Tom Bilyeu? Drew, what, so that I can calibrate, what do you think they would have to invest in to get them on the upside of the K with this inflated fake money?
24:58 Speaker 02 With this inflated fake money, uh, first, deregulation in the housing sector.
25:02 Tom Bilyeu? Doesn't cost money.
25:03 Speaker 02 It, it does cost money because I would also give incentives to builders so that way they would build more. So it'll be tax breaks on the other side.
25:08 Tom Bilyeu? So that's different. The deregulation didn't cost money. The tax incentives cost money.
25:13 Speaker 02 Tax incentives will cost, but we just, we just slashed all the taxes for, uh, rich and billionaires and, um, corporate taxes. We can slash the taxes for builders, depending on how many homes that are filled, not just homes that are built. So you have to have a certain occupancy rate. So that incentivizes builders to build and then have people actually move in. And then there'll be incentive for a tax break. Another tax break, if you sign up for a trade school, you get tax incentives on that. So, so again, I can, this is just something that I'm spitting off the cuff that Google Gemini popped out. Now imagine if I had a whole conference table of economists and AI artists and all the data center people. They need construction jobs, right? To build data centers so that way we can AI our growth our way. Why aren't we investing in construction jobs? We have, we need AI engineers that can connect all the chips together. Why aren't we investing in the chips? We have TMSC that we wanted to fly in and give them jobs.
25:57 Tom Bilyeu? You have a bunch of brilliant ideas that would work if we had a balanced budget. The correct answer to the question that I was asking. The only way to get, the only way to get people on the bottom of the K to the top side of the K is to get them to own assets. Otherwise, you have to change your entire economic structure. You must balance the budget.
26:16 Speaker 02 Let's go there, to own assets. In order for them to own assets, they should must have a job that provides them a living wage with a little bit of margin on top of that. So that way they can actually purchase those assets.
26:24 Tom Bilyeu? Yep.
26:24 Speaker 02 Okay, now we need to make, we can make assets more affordable by turning a bunch of levers. We can make, we can, we can either decrease the mortgage interest rate, which you have called for, because that will refinance the debt and give us more favorable terms.
26:36 Tom Bilyeu? Yes, but if a house gets cheaper, it's not a good asset.
26:38 Speaker 02 If a house gets cheaper, it's not a good asset?
26:40 Tom Bilyeu? If a house goes down in value over time, which is precisely what you're saying, which is a good thing and I hope that we do it, makes the house stop being the asset class that you can hide from inflation.
26:48 Speaker 02 But, okay, because now the goalpost is moving, because that would be them owning an asset, because eventually it will go back up because of inflation.
26:53 Tom Bilyeu? The, the goalposts aren't moving. There is cause and effect in the economy. This is what people like keep losing sight of. So, why do I want, why do I want housing prices to come down? I want housing prices to come down because it becomes a forced savings account. But that forced savings account, instead of being an asset, it only works as an asset when you're in an extreme inflation environment and you've got to hide your money somewhere. I've always said, houses are great because your wife is going to pressure you to own it anyway. Cool. Now, the idea of driving the cost of houses down is different, because the value of the house now is not keeping up with inflation. Yay, praise Jesus. It's getting cheaper and now people can own it. But it stops being a good asset and it starts being a good forced savings account. So at least it's a real thing. You live in it, it forces you to put your money into that. Cool.
27:38 Tom Bilyeu? You have a, a real asset in terms of I can live in it, protects me from the weather, et cetera, et cetera. Also, people invest in their neighborhoods, blah, blah, blah. Okay, but from an asset perspective, assets only work if they keep up with inflation. So if you have an inflationary environment and you're owning assets that aren't keeping up with inflation, you're, so you have this conundrum with housing that it Either keeps up with inflation and people can't afford it because you're in an inflationary environment, or you try to decouple a house from that and you say houses need to be affordable because people actually need to live in them. Cool. That's like a separate thing. But when people start conflating those and they want the prices of houses to come down and yet remain a good asset, which by definition means it keeps up with inflation, it's nonsensical. And so all of the cause and effect of the economy is where people get lost.
28:21 Speaker 02 I understand what you're saying and none of that, I think, stops the position I was trying to make initially because in order to own assets, you need two things. You need income, you need wages, and you need things to put your asset, that money and that income and those wages into. Now, that income could be self-generated, it could be an entrepreneur, it could be coming in from whatever different direction. So that's a different conversation. We either want people to get on the property ladder and then eventually become on the investment ladder, and investment could be Robin Hood, whatever you need to do. That's the pipeline that we would like most Americans to do. This is the lowest percentage of 30-year-olds that own houses. I don't think anybody in the room thinks that that's a great thing. We can mutually agree that it's more important for more Americans to own homes. Can we agree on that?
28:54 Tom Bilyeu? We can. It doesn't solve the problem that you were bringing it up on. That's why I'm saying.
28:59 Speaker 02 It doesn't solve the problem of people owning assets if more people own homes?
29:04 Tom Bilyeu? If a house keeps up with inflation, it will be forever out of reach of the people on the bottom of the K. You have to solve that problem.
29:11 Speaker 02 Okay. And what I'm saying is, if we are talking inflation at the 2% that the Fed is reserving, or inflation of what happened in the last five years, those are two different rates.
29:19 Tom Bilyeu? Yes. When people look at inflation and say it's 2% or 3%, they're out of their minds. So that's 2% or 3%.
29:24 Speaker 02 What the Fed announces as the federal standard for 2%.
29:28 Tom Bilyeu? Understandable, but when you start comparing it, like what were the costs of things 25 years ago, you start seeing the real pain in inflation. It's mahusive. When you authorize the government to steal 2% or 3% of your money, it eats away your money very, very, very quickly because of compounding interest.
29:45 Speaker 02 Last question on this. The $20 to $50 billion that we just spent on war, did that generate an outcome that you think will add to human flourishing?
29:52 Tom Bilyeu? No, it was terrible, terrible, terrible. It's going to speed up inflation.
29:56 Speaker 02 We can say that that was a waste of money.
29:58 Tom Bilyeu? We can say it was a catastrophe.
30:00 Speaker 02 Is there another way, if we were the business of America, that we could have reinvested $20, $50 billion locally in the country of America that Could have helped Americans either balance their budgets, change financial positions, increase their wages. Is there something that we could have invested in that would have gave them an opportunity for upward mobility?
30:18 Tom Bilyeu? Not if it's inflationary.
30:20 Speaker 02 The 2050 billion that's already spent, that's already inflationary, but we couldn't reallocate that.
30:24 Tom Bilyeu? That's correct.
30:25 Speaker 02 Okay, so what I'm hearing is when we spend it on war, it's a terrible thing that's inflationary. But if we take that same money that we already spent on war and spent it in America, it's just as bad.
30:33 Tom Bilyeu? So, yes, so.
30:35 Speaker 02 Even though that it's gonna help a couple people, it's still just as bad.
30:38 Tom Bilyeu? So you, you could make an argument for if you invest in things that are going to cause the economy to grow faster than inflation, then it's worth doing, and that is a true statement. However, I don't see, that is such a big gamble that you're never going to get me on board. It does not violate the physics of money. So, yes, if you find a way that actually grows the economy, yes, it would be worth it. Debt is worth it to do that. The US has proven time and time again that they don't do that. And that they will just deficit spend, deficit spend, deficit spend. And however much growth you get, then they just spend more than that growth. You are saying very true words, they are hypotheticals, which is why, because we're going fast,
31:21 Tom Bilyeu? I am constantly like, ah, you, okay, ah, like, not really. Because if you deal in the hypothetical, if you could somehow invest the money in a way that got people on the bottom of the K into assets to keep up with inflation, that would work. If you could somehow, some way, invest in a manner that caused the economy to grow faster than your deficit is growing, that would work. I'm just saying, we're not actually doing that. And so when I look at the spending on the war, I go, this is crazy. We're just deficit spending all of this. This is wild. If you had gone in and you had gotten control of the oil and now oil prices dropped,
32:04 Tom Bilyeu? then it's like, that would become deflationary in a positive way. So it's like, yeah.
32:08 Speaker 02 You're spending $2 at the gas tank instead of $4.
32:11 Tom Bilyeu? Correct, but we're not. And so it's like, this ended up so far, listen, maybe some miracles coming down the pike, but. But as of right now, it just looks like we unleashed chaos, created problems, that this is not going to work out well, that at best, we sort of end up back where we were. And it was a non-event economically in the long term, but damaged our relationships with our allies and becomes a very big problem long term from that perspective. So I'm looking at this going, okay, how do you actually solve the problem? And if the words that come out of somebody's mouth are not balance the budget, then I know whatever they're literally, whatever they're about to propose in real life, isn't going to work. Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned.
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34:01 Speaker 02 Candace Owens is doing a victory dance right now, but the ballistics on the bullet did not match. This could be a nothing burger, then the sheriff resigns, it could be something.
34:09 Tom Bilyeu? It could be a something burger?
34:10 Speaker 02 Yeah, that's what I mean. Is this just smoke?
34:12 Tom Bilyeu? Dum patty with cheese. This is a Royale with cheese. Rumors are flying that Candace Owens was right about everything. Charlie Kirk was not killed by Tyler Robinson. According to a new ballistics report, anyway. Ballistics report from the ATF says that the bullet that killed Charlie Kirk was not conclusively from Tyler Robinson's gun. Now, the way that it's being framed by the Daily Mail is the exaggerated version that it wasn't him, like this is proof. That's not what's real. When you look more closely, what the report actually said is just that it's not conclusive. When the bullet hit Kirk's body, if all of this is being reported straight, it struck a bone, it broke up on impact.
34:55 Tom Bilyeu? The forensic pathologist recovered fragments, not an intact bullet. Law enforcement sources told Fox News it is impossible to do ballistics analysis on a bullet fragment. Additionally, and I haven't seen many people reporting on this because it's not cool and not conspiratorial, but the spent shell casing found on the scene did match the rifle. So you're in a situation where it's not that the bullet was like, this didn't come from that gun, dun dun dun. But the shell casing on the scene did, the gun trigger has Tyler Robinson's DNA on it. A retired FBI supervisory special agent said that basically this is a pretty significant piece of evidence for the prosecution and pretty damning for the defense. The defense doesn't even have the full ATF case file yet. It's only a summary.
35:40 Tom Bilyeu? As the retired FBI agent put it, nobody outside the ATF lab knows why they couldn't make the match yet. Now, I'll admit, this will be a far more engrossing story if Israel or somebody else is the one that killed Charlie, but right now, the narrative is up against a confession to Tyler's dad, a text message confession to his lover, and a massive video archive of Tyler actually on the day of the assassination, as well as the spent bullet casing, as well as his finger, DNA from his finger on the trigger being present. All of this is probably just the defense trying to buy themselves more time to find a way out from under all of that. And on March 27th, Robinson's defense team filed a motion to delay his May preliminary
36:25 Tom Bilyeu? hearing. And it was the thing about the bullet, which is buried on page 22 of the filing. So the whole thing the Daily Mail took and ran with as proof of conspiracy, probably more just a headline grabber than anything in reality. Basically turned that into just a headline that was something like bullet used to kill Charlie Kirk did not match the rifle. And it's like, sort of, it was inconclusive. That is true, but the implication is more for conspiracy theorists than it is something that's real. Within hours, the internet, of course, was going crazy, exonerating Robinson and saying that there had to be a second shooter. The reality is that fragmented bullets are routinely inconclusive in ballistics analysis. So unable to identify being confused with came from a different gun is what's causing the drama here.
37:09 Tom Bilyeu? It means that the physical evidence was just too degraded. I think people want to slow down here. This is not the bombshell that people are making it out to be. The defense filing for a preliminary request for more time is not exoneration. So they're sitting on like 61,000 pages, 31 hours of audio, over 700 hours of video. So they're just asking for more time to go through all of that. But it's like, this is one of those, I almost don't want to deny people their fun. You know what I mean? Like, this is one, we don't know. So it is possible that it wasn't him. And there's all these weird things. I think the punchline is going to be Tyler Robinson killed him, but.
37:46 Speaker 02 Full stop.
37:47 Tom Bilyeu? I want, yeah, but I want to have a good time as we go. I do get why people think that there's something more going on here.
37:53 Speaker 02 I'm gonna put on my conspiracy edutainment hat on for a second because I loved how you said conspiracy as a form of entertainment now. I followed a TikToker. I'm not going to give him a platform because his ideas are wild, but he's just like, yo, I feel like they cloned people. And I feel, and he says it so passionately and it's just like, oh, I get it now. Like he says.
38:10 Tom Bilyeu? Did you hear Matt Gaetz?
38:11 Speaker 02 Oh, with the hybrid alien?
38:13 Tom Bilyeu? Yes, Matt Gaetz. I watched the video myself. Matt Gaetz said, a person in military uniform, a real part of the military, in an unclassified briefing, said that aliens are being co-bred, like the DNA with humans.
38:30 Speaker 04 The most important information will be the biologics that are not human that have been discovered. And like even some of the briefings that aren't classified, just need, just need to be out in the public. I mean, I had someone come and brief me who was in a military uniform, worked for the United States Army that was briefing. On the locations of hybrid breeding programs where captured aliens were breeding with humans to create some hybrid race that could engage.
39:00 Tom Bilyeu? Benny's like, yo, I've said some wild, but Gates, like, can we, come on, bro. Like even my audience has their limits.
39:07 Speaker 02 So there is this, this seething need for like, the world is out to get me. I'm trying my hardest. I'm not able to get on this property ladder. I'm mad. I'm frustrated. There's aliens over here breeding with people. We have all these wars. So it's like, I don't know if this conspiracy breeds on that frustration. Or if it's just an entertainment escape, it's the evolution of reality TV because the cryogenes don't do it for us anymore. I don't know where that next thing is, but it's just, if Tyler Robinson gets off, do you know what that would do to TP USA? The internet would go crazy.
39:34 Tom Bilyeu? The, the internet would go absolutely insane. There would be backlash in an extreme fashion. That would be wild. I do think this is partly conspiracy as the new reality TV. It is a new form of entertainment. Where you've got, like, I don't know what's called the form of journalism, but it's like, you're doing journalistic looking things to dig into the conspiracy, to do the John Nash. For people that don't know, he's the guy from A Beautiful Mind. He's schizophrenic. It's not exclusive to schizophrenics. They're just early to the party, but they'll see like patterns in things where there actually aren't meaningful patterns. Like there are patterns. They're just not meaningful patterns.
40:12 Speaker 02 Correlation is not causation type.
40:13 Tom Bilyeu? Exactly. Watching Candace feels like that. I feel like I'm watching John Nash at the board and I'm like, those patterns are there, but I don't think they mean what you think they mean. And so there is an entertainment level to it. She's obviously doing incredibly well and honestly shout out to Candace for just reading this moment right. Again, this is not a moral statement of whether she should be doing it or not, but it's like, she understands how to marshal people's attention. Whether she believes what she's doing or not, for now, I'll just assume she does. And she's seeing these patterns that don't add up to anything, but she's drawing all these conclusions and it's wild. And there's some part of her that believes that because you feel it, which is like anathema to me, it is the exact opposite of how I approach the world, but she believes that if you feel it, that's proof that it's true, which is the.
40:58 Tom Bilyeu? Childish ever and I advise you guys never, ever, ever to interface with the world like that. But it really makes for good TV.
41:04 Speaker 02 Okay, I got one more conspiracy brain rock.
41:06 Tom Bilyeu? Let's go.
41:06 Speaker 02 I don't know if you've been seeing the Dan Bongianno, Tommy Massey back and forth on Twitter.
41:10 Tom Bilyeu? No, say more.
41:11 Speaker 02 Okay, so Dan Bongianno called out Thomas Massey, called him a fraud and said, this guy's the worst politician. I called him three times. He didn't pick up because he doesn't want to understand the truth. Thomas Massey replied, gave like an eight thing. Well, actually you called, you fabricated this lies. You were trying to intimidate staffers. FBI whistleblower was really a way to out FBI. People who are holding the FBI accountable, there was much back and forth. He came out with receipts. But what was interesting is Thomas Massey showed a screenshot of his calls. He's like, wait, you didn't call me at one in the morning. You didn't call me at two in the morning. Why are your screenshots messed up? So Thomas Massey showed his screenshots. They were 8:00 AM, 7:30 PM, you know, reasonable hours. Noxylove, I gotta give credit where credit is due, retweeted, Dan Bongianno actually posted screenshots of his phone calls. And I wanna be gotcha to Massey. Turns out Dan's timestamp is to match the time zone in Israel.
41:55 Speaker 02 Self owned himself. So if you do the five, five hours from the east coast is actually easy. And this is about the F C Transparency Act. So it's like you were literally calling him in Israel as you were trying to figure this out. Causation correlation, it could be his phone was updating. He could have been on it, on the jet, traveling, but.
42:11 Tom Bilyeu? That's amazing.
42:12 Speaker 02 Brain rock conspiracy theorists are going crazy with that. So that goes there.
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