Epstein Bill Passes, Trump's 'Piggy' Slam & MBS Visit, Bitcoin Freefall + Tim Cook Steps Down? | PBD Podcast | Ep. 686

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, and Brandon Aceto are joined by Jeff Snider as they break down Congress passing the Epstein bill, Trump calling reporter Catherine Lucey “Piggy,” MBS’s high-stakes U. S. visit, Bitcoin’s sudden freefall, and rumors that Apple CEO Tim Cook may be stepping down. ------ 📕 REGISTER FOR BPW 2025 - FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12TH 2025: https://bit.ly/3IU2YWx 📺 SUBSCRIBE TO JEFF SNIDER'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL: https://bit.ly/4i5uz3W Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON SPOTIFY: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g57zR2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g57zR2 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ITUNES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ALL PLATFORMS: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 🍋 ZEST IT FORWARD: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kJ71lc ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kJ71lc 📕 PBD'S BOOK "THE ACADEMY": ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/41rtEV4⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/41rtEV4 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 📺 JOIN THE CHANNEL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web. Like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required. Compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

• 0:26Speaker 01

  This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.

• 1:08Patrick Bet-David?

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.

• 1:13Speaker 03

  You are a one of one? My son's driving.

• 1:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 1:21Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't, I don't, I don't mind doing that. I mean, we can have a place set up here, folks. We're having a very deep conversation with homeschooling. And Tom and I got into a big fight because Tom is saying sixth graders don't have enough homework. I'm telling him, why are you giving these kids so much homework? Tom, turn off your phone, please. Turn off your phone, please. It's the ad with their comments. Tom is obsessed with homework for sixth graders. And I don't think it's healthy. Why do you want kids to do homework till 1 o'clock in the morning? You tell me the positive of a sixth grader doing homework till 1 o'clock in the morning.

• 1:51Tom Ellsworth?

  How are we going to get them to some?

• 1:53Speaker 05

  Well, to be fair, it was 11 o'clock a couple of seconds.

• 1:58Tom Ellsworth?

  How are we supposed to get?

• 1:59Patrick Bet-David?

  We eventually gonna be 2 o'clock.

• 2:00Tom Ellsworth?

  Listen, we need seventh graders in factories making iPhones, 16-hour shifts. How are we gonna do it if we don't give them proper education?

• 2:07Speaker 05

  We need trade schools so they can have Ford mechanics.

• 2:10Tom Ellsworth?

  That's exactly.

• 2:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Anyways, guys, please.

• 2:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Manual dexterity test.

• 2:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Let us get back to our fights here, but we have, we have, I am surrounded right now by three geniuses. These guys are brilliant, literally, like Brandon, you know, he's the only guy I met in my life that's got two degrees. He's got a bachelor's and a master's in national security. We got Jeff Snider here, who does some of the best work. When it comes on to the technicalities of the market, you're gonna hear when he starts speaking, you're gonna get smarter by the end of this podcast. And then obviously, in my opinion, Tom's one of the sharpest guys I've met in my entire life. And I'm gonna do my best to try to moderate today's discussion on what's going on with the markets. Last night, we got home at 10:45 from Dallas. We were at the annual Goldman Sachs founders, uh,

• 2:55Patrick Bet-David?

  family founders meeting, phenomenal meeting, uh, to see what's going on. The, the vice chair of Goldman Sachs was Rob Kaplan, talking about what he thinks is gonna happen with the marketplace. Emmett Smith gave a talk. I can't even, I couldn't believe, I went to him afterwards. I'm like, brother, you, you, you gave an incredible message. Ross Perot sold Dallas, Ross Pro Jr. sold Dallas, and the role he plays as the chairman of the Chamber of Commerce, Tom, if I'm not mistaken.

• 3:22Tom Ellsworth?

  Exactly right.

• 3:23Patrick Bet-David?

  A lot of the families.

• 3:23Tom Ellsworth?

  He was governor of Chamber of Commerce, the whole enchilada, baby.

• 3:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Phenomenal, yeah. And then the government of, uh, Governor of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma was there, a bunch of different guys. It was a very good conversation. We'll share some of the stuff with you guys here today. Let me get into the stories and then I'll tell you, uh, what has happened on December 12th and we'll get right into it. Tim Cook, the man who took Apple from the day Steve Jobs died, who was worth a hundred billion dollars, to now three, maybe four trillion dollars, depending on the month, is deciding to step down, beginning of early next year. Some are happy, some are concerned. We'll definitely talk about that. Trump is considering portable mortgages. Here's how they work. Yesterday, Rob Kaplan even openly said,

• 4:08Patrick Bet-David?

  I'd like to know what these portable mortgages are. This is kinda like some of the people that are not selling their homes. They got a home loan that was on three and a quarter or something like that, and they're worried about selling it to give up the three and a quarter for five and a half or six. They're trying to find a way to you, you, you can literally transfer that rate to a new loan. Everyone's trying to know how they're gonna do it. Maybe we'll get some of our brains here to break that down for us.

• 4:31Tom Ellsworth?

  Some of mortgages, we'll bring that up.

• 4:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Bitcoin prices are free, free for all. Weeks after hitting all time low, people are panicking, some are worried. Tom is saying there's nothing to worry about. We will cover that as well. Uh, Trump scraps tariff some beef, coffee and tropical fruit and push to lower grocery store prices. Trump is considering, uh, uh, Ford CEO Jim Farley says he can't fill 5,000 mechanic jobs. Paying a hundred twenty thousand dollars a year. And this is the part, Jeff, I think that you talk about the labor recession and some of the other people talk about labor recession. Brandon, I know you got some thoughts on this as well. Uh, people are having AI children. You ready? Are you, are you ready for an AI children? You want to have an AI child, a perfect AI child that does nothing wrong.

• 5:18Patrick Bet-David?

  But people are having AI children with their AI partners, uh, according to Futurism.

• 5:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Sounds boring.

• 5:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it sounds like the movie Her, by the way, which was, in my opinion, one of the worst movies I've seen in my life. Most Americans think sixty-three is the perfect age to retire, but they're dead wrong. Wait till you hear, according to Money Wise, what the new age should be for retirement. Some of you, I'm telling your earmuffs when we go through it, you're gonna wanna leave the podcast. You're gonna be so upset with us, but it's not us. It's this guy talking about the story. Omaha Steaks CEO warns American families will soon face a ten dollar a pound reality for beef. Uh, uh, Jake and I were talking about, the other day I took the kids to have ice cream. Five kids had a scoop of ice cream. Brooklyn had her gummy bears. I think she had M and M's. One of them had gummy bears and one of them had marshmallow. Five scoops of ice cream on waffle cone.

• 6:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Each had one scoop with sixty-four dollars. I asked myself, what average family can pay sixty-four dollars for ice cream? I was blown away, but apparently that's the price today. Number of new foreign students in US falls seventeen percent over visa worries. This is probably the H1B visa conversation that people are afraid of having, but I think we need to be having. Toyota opens massive North Carolina battery plant confirms 10 billion out of US investment. Oil and the gas demand could grow until 2050, according to Wall Street Journal. The number of households living paycheck to paycheck have risen. Why? So USA Today story. How building affordable housing became hottest game in LA. Electric

• 6:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Florida boomtown is now America's foreclosure ground zero. Wait till you find out what city that is. Trump is gonna, we talking about that. Record property tax increases. Slam Chicago homeowners as downtown owners see cuts. Wasn't this guy not supposed to raise taxes or do anything? This incredible mayor guy that is destroying a once great city. And then we got a couple other stories we'll get into with AI boom is fueling a memory chip shortage that could hit cars and phones. Google is looking at 40 billion dollars for Texas data center on Tropic to spend 50 billion dollars on USAI infrastructure. And then we got a couple stories that I think Jeff and Tom both want to talk about. The Blue Owl

• 7:36Patrick Bet-David?

  plunges to 2023 low after blocking exit from fund. And there's two stories that will address both of them as well. And then folks, there was a, there was a clip yesterday with, what do you call it? Epstein, they voted for it. I want to say it was 427 to 1, if I'm not mistaken. And the one guy that voted against it is, is famous now because you probably had never heard of him before. And if he wanted to get famous, this was one of the ways of doing it. Clay Higgins is officially the only guy that voted against releasing the Epstein files. And he actually tweeted about it, explaining why he didn't. And maybe we'll get into that as well. And some, some guy who works.

• 8:21Patrick Bet-David?

  He works on this street's name, Pennsylvania, I want to say is the street's name. He told somebody to do Quiet Piggy. He told someone Quiet Piggy. I don't know if you guys seen that clip or not. Have you seen that Quiet Piggy clip yet? Maybe we'll address the Quiet Piggy clip as well. Gang, if you got big plans for 2026, I am telling you right now, I can't say how many conversations we're having about business planning. There's a reason why we went less than 22 hours to Dallas and come back because we want to see exactly what's happening with 2026. We're planning for our family, for our businesses ourselves. And if 2026 is a big year for you as well, I want you to watch this clip. Rob, can you go to the clip with the Jenga to show them what happens when it comes onto business plan and how all of these things are necessary? Go ahead, Rob.

• 9:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Business is a lot like Jenga. Every piece matters. You need a vision. Just carefully. Oof, you need capital. You definitely need capital.

• 9:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's put this here, ooh, this, hanging on one piece here, by the way. You need the right team. For sure. It's almost fell off, by the way. You need sales. As good as this looks, if your foundation isn't built on a good business plan, you know what happens?

• 9:39Patrick Bet-David?

  The whole thing crumbles. If you have big plans for 2026, on December 12th, I'm hosting an event called the Business Planning Workshop where all day we go through the 12 building blocks of writing an effective business plan. So this doesn't happen to you. If you haven't got registered, click on the link below. Let's spend an entire day together on December 12th. Looking forward to seeing you there. Folks, click on the link below, get registered. You can watch it with your friends, family, and this is going to be people watching this from 100 plus countries and you can find a way to just get registered at the lowest level or you can find a way to be on the screen so everybody can see each other and at the end we'll do a Q and A for 90 minutes. All right. Having said that, let's get right into it.

• 10:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Rob, what is the audience saying is the first story they want us to get into? Let me guess. Okay, I don't even have to guess. All right, so let's go through that story. So they voted for it and it ended up being what? 427 to 1 on releasing the Epstein files. And a lot has been released since there. Is this the breakdown, Rob? Yep. Go for it.

• 10:47Speaker 06

  We begin with Congress approving a bill to force the release of the government's files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. CBS News reporter Erica Brown joins us now from Capitol Hill. Erica, can you explain what happened in the Senate?

• 11:00Speaker 06

  Yeah, Lindsay, just a short time ago, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer took to the Senate floor to get unanimous consent that would deem this bill automatically passed.

• 11:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Rob, it's okay, we don't need to watch it. I thought it's like a little bit different breakdown. It's like two people sending it to each other. So it's Senate and House, Rob, right? That both said they're passing it. And then as we're going through this, the only guy that didn't, Rob, if you can pull him up, Clay Higgins, he's the only person that didn't do it, representative, Republican representative. I want to say he's out of where? Why did I think it was Oklahoma? I don't know if it's Oklahoma. Louisiana. Louisiana, okay. And if you don't mind going to his Twitter account for us to just let him give his argument why he didn't do it. On Twitter, he explains, this is why I voted no. And I've been a principled no on this bill from the beginning. What was wrong with the bill three months ago is still wrong today. It abandons 250 years of criminal justice procedure in America.

• 11:52Patrick Bet-David?

  As written, this bill reveals and injures thousands of innocent people, witnesses, people who provided the alibis, family members, et cetera. If enacted in this current form, this type of broad reveal of criminal investigation files released to a rabid media will absolutely result in innocent people being hurt. Anyways, that's his reasoning behind it. Go a little bit low, Rob, to see what it says, because there's a community notes. Rabinaz claims misrepresent the H.R. 4405. The bill includes redactions from victims and uninvolved individuals. Massey explained victims can't release names due to lawsuits forcing them to homelessness. Okay, so maybe there's a little bit of contradiction there. Tom, your thoughts with what was released yesterday? Are we going to learn anything? Are we going to see anything? Or is this just another one of those, you know, they're going to release it just to

• 12:37Patrick Bet-David?

  say they did?

• 12:38Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, always be concerned if your government does something unanimously because it's technically a mathematical and a statistical, you know, not impossibility, but it's highly improbable. Like if they're voting on raises for themselves, all of a sudden you say, hey, Senate, Senate, everybody was like, what is it? You know, you take all the congressmen, all of a sudden it, boom, done. So what has happened here is they're all voting to release it, but there's two asterisks in it. The Attorney General Pam Bondi can elect to redact it, I think, for matters of national security, A, or B, if it would interfere with an ongoing investigation.

• 13:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Help me out here, you know, guys. I, I, I think those were the two exceptions, which means that Pam Bondi can swing by the CIA and get all those groovy black highlighters out and go through the whole thing and basically have the same situation as they had when they handed those binders to the social media people and they walked out with the binders that said Epstein files.

• 13:47Patrick Bet-David?

  This isn't that.

• 13:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah. No, no, supposedly that was that. This is now, but that had a bunch of stuff that was already released.

• 13:54Patrick Bet-David?

  But that didn't go through House and that didn't go through Senate. That was just more like a marketing stunt that they did.

• 13:59Tom Ellsworth?

  It turned out to be a marketing stunt. Exactly right. But now the government's saying, they put this out.

• 14:04Speaker 05

  It's gonna end up being a marketing stunt again because Bondi's gonna go over there, she's gonna redact a bunch of stuff.

• 14:09Tom Ellsworth?

  With all those CIA black highlighters.

• 14:11Patrick Bet-David?

  You think it's gonna be a publicity stunt?

• 14:12Speaker 05

  Of course it is. I mean, why did both parties agree to this? Exactly what you're saying.

• 14:18Tom Ellsworth?

  That's the logic I'm building right back to that driveway of the White House.

• 14:21Speaker 05

  She's gonna redact a bunch of stuff which will allow the Democrats to say, you're still not showing us everything that's in the files. And then the Republicans can say, no, we released the files, but we had to protect names. And the political theater goes on and on and on.

• 14:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Got it. So you don't, you don't, Brent, are you any, are you in a different position here?

• 14:35Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I'm not. I'm, I'm so, unfortunately, I'm so burnt out by this one because we've been like kind of let down and misled and manipulated so many times. Like I, I'm, I'm never going to expect to get a satisfying answer with, with this thing in terms of like learning new information. I, I like, and like they said, there's no way that 427 people would vote in favor of it if it's going to do anything damaging to powerful people in a big way. So yeah.

• 14:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So I'm curious, Jeff, we've had a lot of different theories. Why we believe they haven't released it yet. We have our own theories. Why some of the information, you know what? It's because there's so many Democrats that are on there. No, it's because so many donors that gave money to Trump are on there. Oh my God, Elon Musk, when he tweeted that, it was a big fallout. No, it's because of maybe Trump's relationship with Epstein. Why do you think all the information is not being released?

• 15:18Speaker 05

  Why isn't it not being released? I think a lot of it has to do, I mean, why is it that this is such a mainstream topic that everybody wants to get into? I mean, like you said, this is the number one, uh, one number one news story. Yeah, exactly. Why is that though? Because people believe that there is a two-tier structure, at least two tiers in this country.

• 15:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 15:35Speaker 05

  And that the elite people have their own set of, you know, rules and benefits. And if you're in the club, you're in the club. And therefore, you know, the rules don't really apply to you.

• 15:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 15:44Speaker 05

  And so I think that's why everybody is, is, is, um, is really taken to the story. And you get into the idea of the, the establishment versus regular folks, the uniparty. I think that's exactly what we're seeing.

• 15:54Patrick Bet-David?

  But flip it though. What I'm trying to ask you is, you're a smart guy. Why, why do you, what are you speculating is the reason why both parties have held back from releasing it?

• 16:03Speaker 05

  That's exactly, because people are right.

• 16:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Because people are right.

• 16:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Because both of them have guys on the list.

• 16:08Speaker 05

  There's, there's this idea that, you know, American public is a bunch of stupid idiots who don't know anything. But you look at time, survey after survey for something like consumer confidence on the economy. Americans know better about the economy than every economist that has ever lived. Same thing with politics. In a big data sort of way, in a big crowd sort of way, American people have.

• 16:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Collectively.

• 16:26Speaker 05

  Yeah, collectively.

• 16:27Patrick Bet-David?

  That makes sense.

• 16:28Speaker 05

  They have an idea of what's really going on here. And the reason why this story won't go away is because people sense. And every time something happens.

• 16:34Patrick Bet-David?

  So what's more likely to happen? It going away or the truth coming out?

• 16:38Speaker 05

  It going away.

• 16:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, you think it'll, you think it's going to go away eventually?

• 16:41Speaker 05

  Too much incentive to not to to just continue to dangle the carrot.

• 16:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 16:46Speaker 05

  As much as necessary and then just like like this sleight of hand magician.

• 16:49Patrick Bet-David?

  What I do like about it is that we're learning a few new things where you know, Hakeem Jeffries, you saw that email that reached out to Epstein to want to ask him for money. And then when he did, he says he'd like to set up a meeting with Obama. And then here, I don't know if you have the clip, Rob, with Rokano is being asked about it. And he just got out, he has no clue and look at his reaction. He doesn't even know what to say. Go ahead, Rob.

• 17:16Speaker 03

  Comment on Hakeem Jeffries campaign soliciting money from Jeffrey Epstein himself back in 2013.

• 17:23Speaker 05

  It's the first time hearing about it, obviously.

• 17:25Speaker 03

  Homer said it on the floor.

• 17:26Speaker 05

  Well, I don't know if it's true. I mean, I'm you're just saying it, but obviously anyone who took money from should return the money. Didn't donate the money when I don't.

• 17:35Speaker 03

  He stepped down as leader.

• 17:38Speaker 05

  I have to look at I have to look at what you say is the first time hearing about it.

• 17:42Patrick Bet-David?

  He's a reasonable guy and he's he's a little bit.

• 17:44Speaker 05

  Return the money or donate the money. Don't you see that as mutually assured destruction? Mm hmm.

• 17:49Patrick Bet-David?

  What a great way to put it.

• 17:51Speaker 05

  Yeah. You want to take out Trump or is one of the Republicans? We got the dirt on you too. So let's just bury this thing. Let's be let's get together, hold hands and bury this thing and just move on with our lives.

• 18:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Yesterday, a a reporter was asking a president about Epstein. And I've never seen him use this phrase before, but he told her quiet piggy. Rob, can you can you pull this up, Rob? I don't know if you have it or not. I watched it multiple times because I'm not going to lie to you. I thought it was AI. And I had to verify because go ahead, Rob.

• 18:22Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration blog. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses setup required compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

• 18:47Speaker 01

  This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.

• 19:17Speaker 03

  So he dictated a couple of memos to himself. If you're going to find out what did he know with respect to Bill Clinton, with respect to the head of Harvard, with respect to all of those people that he did a bloody JP Morgan shares.

• 19:31Speaker 06

  Sir, is there something incriminating in the five? Sir, I'm trying to look.

• 19:35Speaker 03

  Quiet, quiet, piggy.

• 19:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Go back a little bit again.

• 19:43Tom Ellsworth?

  With the finger in her face.

• 19:45Speaker 05

  Yeah, but it's also the smile in his face, right? The way he delivers those lines.

• 19:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Do it again.

• 19:54Tom Ellsworth?

  He looks her right in the eye.

• 19:58Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you think about this? What do you about this quiet piggy?

• 20:01Speaker 05

  He's a great politician. He connects with people. I think a lot of people, just regular folks would say, I'd love to be able to do that to some of these reporters.

• 20:08Tom Ellsworth?

  You know what? That says, you know, you just said something there. I'm gonna give you a high five. This is like the first 10 minutes. Here, I'll tell you why.

• 20:15Speaker 05

  We're already doing good.

• 20:15Tom Ellsworth?

  Because you struck it. Because you know why so many people let the troller in chief? Because sometimes he's the troller and the chief, and that's exactly what I voted for. You know, I voted for a guy that's going to get in the face of the media. I voted for a guy that's going to be here. But everybody, doesn't everybody sit back? I wish I could say that to my boss.

• 20:34Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm in Dallas. I'm in the hotel room.

• 20:37Tom Ellsworth?

  It's a hidden thing. I want to do it. I want to do it. And he's doing it for me.

• 20:40Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm in the bathroom. I come to Jen, I said, babe, the president just said this. She wa- her instant reaction is she couldn't stop laughing. The fact that a president told the reporter, quiet piggy. Who says that? I mean, you can say F you, you can say you motherf- none of what's worse, I'd rather be told that than be called a piggy. Be quiet, piggy.

• 21:04Tom Ellsworth?

  And they're all searching for how that it's racial or sexually or they're trying to find a way. Wait, according to reports, this is the reporter that the president called piggy.

• 21:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Has anybody who asked him why he called her piggy?

• 21:19Tom Ellsworth?

  Not that I'm aware, I'll look.

• 21:20Patrick Bet-David?

  What is, what is the like?

• 21:22Tom Ellsworth?

  There has to be a backstory.

• 21:23Speaker 05

  She doesn't look super fat.

• 21:24Patrick Bet-David?

  There has to be a backstory.

• 21:24Speaker 05

  There's gotta be some other.

• 21:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Does she have pigs as a pet? Like, no, I'm actually curious. Like, is there like a?

• 21:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, it's all nursery rhyme, this little piggy, this little piggy had, this little piggy did this and this little piggy went crying all the way home.

• 21:35Patrick Bet-David?

  While this is happening, you know what happened yesterday? Larry Summers, to his 30 students, he got up to his, did you see this, Tom? Larry Summers gets in front of his 30 students and one of the students recorded it and posted it. Rob, do you have this one or you want me to send it to you? Yeah, in front of his students, he apologizes. He apologizes and says, hey, because of what happened, right there. Rob, go ahead, watch this.

• 22:01Speaker 03

  Some of you will have seen my statement of regret, expressing my shame with respect to what I did in communication with Mr. Epstein. And that I've said that I'm gonna step back on public standing, but for a time, but I think it's very important for personal and teaching purposes.

• 22:22Patrick Bet-David?

  So there you have it. So Larry Summers comes out, apologizes. Some lady is called Little Piggy. You know, you got another story from New York Post comes out where they're talking about what some of the girls said about Epstein, which we'll cover that on Friday because that's Vinnie's favorite story. We won't cover that today.

• 22:41Tom Ellsworth?

  More of an Adam story, but.

• 22:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, listen, it is what it is, but we'll cover that on Friday. Rob, what are the new things that we learned? What are the new things that we learned? Because there was, there was a, is this the one with Johnson?

• 22:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes, this is where Mike Johnson talks about it being a security issue to release, a national security issue to release the Epstein files, unredacted.

• 23:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Go ahead.

• 23:03Speaker 03

  All right. Number five, national security concerns, okay? The discharge requires the attorney general to release within 30 days, quote, classified information to the maximum extent possible. This ignores the principle that declassification should always rest and always. has rested with the agency that originated the intelligence. Why? So that they can protect their critical sources and methods. It is incredibly dangerous to demand that officials or employees of the DOJ declassify materials that originated in other agencies, in intelligence agencies.

• 23:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so this goes back to kind of what you're talking about. The fact that nothing's going to be released. Yeah. Uh, do you, if there's one thing that Glenn Beck was talking about this, I think it was yesterday, maybe even a few days ago, he was talking about this, where there was a specific part that they were leaving out. Part where it said, uh, um, they're trying to get Trump that I want you to realize that the dog hasn't barked, the dog that hasn't barked is Trump. This is an email exchange between Epstein, I want to say, and the dog that has embarked was Trump.

• 24:23Patrick Bet-David?

  And they, they hid the name of the individual, which was Virginia. That's the one, Rob, if you want to zoom in a little bit. So this is email correspondence of Jeffrey Epstein, who is he sending it to? G max. I want you to realize that the dog that has embarked is Trump. Victim they hid, so you wouldn't know who that person is. This is what the Democrats were using for many years. Spent hours at my house with him. He has never once been mentioned, police chief, et cetera. I'm 75% there, meaning he hasn't prompted to do anything with her, apparently. Zooming, going a little bit more and then the direct correspondence. Victim, Marla ago, Trump said he asked me to resign, never a member ever.

• 25:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course, he knew about the girls as he asked Jelaine to stop. Okay? So who is the victim? The victim is Virginia Giuffre. Okay? And when Virginia was asked about the relationship with the president and the question was asked, Donald Trump was also a good friend of Epstein and this question are going back and forth. I don't know if you have that one or not, Rob. And she responded, "He didn't partake in any, any of the sex with any of us is what was said in there, right? But he flirted with me." So this, this is some of the stuff that is coming out. I think, I think it's good that it's being released, even though if it's a little bit, we're still getting more than

• 25:51Patrick Bet-David?

  we had the day before. I, I don't mind if more and more information is being released and being talked about, but the reality of it is, I'm convinced there's guys on both sides and I think a lot of people are probably in the same place as well. They just don't want the world to know who these names are. They think it's a much better place to keep it to themselves. Tom, I'll give you the last word and we'll go to the next story.

• 26:09Tom Ellsworth?

  If anybody thinks that this is, first of all, Vinny's not here, but I will speak up for the horrifying effect that happened to the victims. And I'm not equivocating the two things I'm about to say, but there's a reason why they all say they're in favor of campaign finance reform and they pass resolutions that do nothing. There's a reason they're all in favor of the line item veto and then they don't pass any resolutions. Because the, that is the uniparty, that is the establishment and that is what the American voter can see in the clear light of day and is pissed off about and it's getting worse and worse and worse. And now you have something as volatile as pedophilia and the victims and it just has pushed Americans over the top on an answer.

• 26:51Speaker 05

  Can I add one more thing?

• 26:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course.

• 26:53Speaker 05

  One thing that we've learned from all this, especially the Larry Summers thing. It's true, right? That there is this other-

• 26:59Patrick Bet-David?

  I think there is some progress with information, that's what I'm saying.

• 27:01Speaker 05

  It's not specific, but it does confirm everybody's gut feeling-

• 27:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Larry Summers apologizing, Jeff, that's a pretty big deal.

• 27:08Speaker 05

  Yeah, but it goes along that people are right. They know that there's something there, so, yeah.

• 27:12Patrick Bet-David?

  So I'm, I'm more of the, of the thought of, I'm more optimistic that a more is gonna come out. It's never gonna fill the appetite of the audience because they want 100%. But I'm, I'm coming from a place of, I think there's gonna be some progress and more information coming out, not 100% of it, but more of it coming out for us to get smarter with what happened here. Because the more and more stories you see with these girls, it's devastating. That's someone's daughter, that's someone's niece, that's someone's, today their wife-

• 27:41Patrick Bet-David?

  That someone's sister that experienced something like this and you can only imagine as a younger brother, you know, my sister is a few years older than me, I was always extremely protective to the levels of that even somebody that was a guy, she had an ex-boyfriend one time, this poor guy, I get out of the military, he is 10 years older than me, we're at the church and he walks by, I'm in my uniform, I'm 18 years old, my dad is begging me to not do anything because we did something to the guy when he left the gym one time when I was 15 years old, 16, I don't know what it was, it was a long time ago. That level of protection that you have for the people around you, so I'm sure a lot of families want to see justice with this, so we'll see what happened here

• 28:22Patrick Bet-David?

  with the story. Let's go to the next one. Now, more things yesterday, MBS is in town yesterday, okay? When he's in town, Ronaldo's there, Musk is there, and while MBS comes in, Trump is going to say hello to him, he slaps Elon Musk in the butt. Rob, you know which one I'm talking about? Yep. Yeah, he slaps Elon Musk in the butt like Vinnie was saying earlier, as if, hey, welcome back, you know, as long as you apologize, you're welcome back. I don't know if you have the clip or not, is that the one? Okay, right there, go ahead, Rob. A little tap in the belly, checking his six-pack, okay? And then if you want to show Rob the

• 29:07Patrick Bet-David?

  exchange with the media, there's a couple of them. That's one of them, and then we'll go to the other one as well, while they're having fun together with the investment that he's making. Is this the whole exchange? Oh, this is the one, Rob. Is this the whole exchange, two minutes? Yep. Yeah, let's watch this. Go ahead, Rob, watch this, folks.

• 29:22Speaker 06

  It's inappropriate, Mr. President, for your family to be doing business in Saudi Arabia while you're president. Is that a conflict of interest? And, Your Royal Highness, the US intelligence concluded that you orchestrated the brutal murder of a journalist. 9/11 families are furious that you are here in the Oval Office. Why should Americans trust you? Who are you with? And the same to you, Mr. President. Now, who are you with? I'm with ABC News, sir. You're with who? ABC News, sir. Fake news, ABC fake news, one of the worst, one of the worst in the business, but I'll answer your question. I have nothing to do with the family business. I have left and when I, I've devoted 100% of my energy. What my family does is fine. They do business all over. They've done very little with Saudi Arabia, actually. I'm sure they could do a lot.

• 30:03Speaker 03

  As far as this gentleman is concerned, he's done a phenomenal job. You're mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen, but he knew nothing about it. And we can leave it at that. You don't have to embarrass our guest by asking a question like that.

• 30:21Speaker 07

  Mr. President, you're allowed me to answer. You know, I feel painful about, you know, the families of 9/11 in America, but, you know, we have to focus on reality. Reality based in CIA documents and based on a lot of documents that Osama bin Laden, he used Saudi people in that event for one main purpose, is to destroy this relation, to destroy the American Saudi relation. That's the purpose of 9/11. About the terrorists, it's really painful to hear, you know, anyone that been losing his life for, you know, no real purpose or nothing illegal way. And it's been painful for us in Saudi Arabia. We've did all the

• 31:06Speaker 07

  right steps of investigation, etc., in Saudi Arabia, and we've improved our system to be sure that nothing happened like that. And it's painful.

• 31:17Patrick Bet-David?

  There's another one that happens as well with the investment of 600 billion or trillion, if you want to find that. Jeff, what do you think about that exchange? Well, what the reporter asking, and MBS actually wanting to answer it, not wanting President to defend him, protect him?

• 31:31Speaker 05

  Yeah, there's a lot going on here. I think the Saudis are in a lot more trouble than people realize, given oil prices and the oil economy over in Saudi Arabia. And I think there's a huge incentive for, you know, the United States to offer support, but also Saudi Arabia to give them something as well. So I think there's, it's not really about the, you know, these political distractions. It's more about, hey, we've got some real trouble going on here, and we need to get along really well.

• 31:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon, what do you think?

• 31:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, I 100% agree. There's been, I think it's like 80% of their GDP is from oil, and they're putting a huge initiative into building things to make it more of a desirable vacation destination. So I mean, it's a weird place to take that conversation like for 9/11. Eleven questions and Jamal Khashoggi questions when there's um, you know, a lot more interesting things to talk about than that and there's like very little information about that stuff. So yeah, I'm, I think that the main reason that we're doing a lot of work with them is because we need them and they need our investment to make it a more desirable vacation destination.

• 32:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, here's, Rob, I don't know if you have the other clip where he says ABC should lose their license. Is this the one, Rob?

• 32:33Speaker 03

  Uh, no, I can grab that.

• 32:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Because he, he was so unhappy with the question that he comes back explaining to her on how many different news, you know, companies, uh, uh, lost lawsuits to him and then he came back and said this about ABC. Go for it.

• 32:48Speaker 03

  And people are wise to your hoax and ABC is, your, your company, your crappy company is one of the perpetrators. And I'll tell you something, I'll tell you something.

• 32:58Speaker 06

  So why not just sign it out?

• 32:59Speaker 03

  I think the license should be taken away from ABC because your news is so fake and it's so wrong.

• 33:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Ninety-seven percent is gonna say here.

• 33:08Speaker 03

  And we have a great commissioner, the chairman, who should look at that because...

• 33:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, I wish it would let it finish because the next thing he says right there is about the fact that nine, there's a reason because the average audience, if they hear that, they're gonna say, you can't just go take a license out. There's a part where he says, when ninety-seven percent of your news was attacking me, uh, uh, is that the part, Rob? Did you find it?

• 33:33Speaker 03

  I'm, I'm listening to it right now.

• 33:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, he gets to it where he says ninety-seven percent. So yeah, so he, he's obviously not happy with what's going on with these guys. I don't know if you can find it, Rob. I mean, we can come back to it. Tom, what are your thoughts here?

• 33:46Tom Ellsworth?

  I'll tell you what my thoughts are. Uh, he campaigned on energy, not independence, not isolationist, but he campaigned on drill, baby, drill. He came right out and he said it, and it's gonna be drill, baby, drill. We were there in Washington on inauguration day where it was a key part of his speech there. He waving to the crowd and he said, and drill, baby, drill. And guess what? It's having an effect. And Saudis have a Rubik's Cube they have to solve. They need to cooperate with the United States, but they, with regard to Gaza, but they don't want to be seen as patronizing the United States to the other members of OPEC, who are also other Arabic and Muslim countries. They don't want that,

• 34:29Tom Ellsworth?

  but they need it. The price of, um, oil is coming down, which is actually going to help certain things. It's already helping gasoline and then coming up heating while the United States. Electricity is expensive for other reasons. But then the Saudis have this arms merchant service that they they run and they get a lot of support and arms from us. So they got to kind of, it's like they have to, here's what I think is going on right now with Saudis. The Saudis have to drive a toaster through the car wash and get to the other side without getting electrocuted. And right now, there are so many things from economic pressure to political pressure to the war. They got

• 35:13Tom Ellsworth?

  to take their steps. There is a reason that you take a look at MBS. You've seen him many times. He was not stammering, but he was really searching for words and stuff. He was not the normal MBS. Hello, I hope the oil and everything is going good. Here's times you can see MBS looking so confident. That guy looked, did he look confident to you?

• 35:34Speaker 00

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• 36:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I think, I think he is, the question about the toaster analogy, Tom, is that if the toaster's plugged in, you're in trouble. But if it's not plugged in, you will make it through the car wash. So you know that.

• 36:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, trying to describe it is.

• 36:41Speaker 05

  Oil prices, oil prices plugged in the toaster. I think you're exactly right.

• 36:44Tom Ellsworth?

  That's exactly right.

• 36:45Patrick Bet-David?

  And, but I do think Trump is using the leverage to get what he wants.

• 36:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Exactly.

• 36:50Patrick Bet-David?

  I do think he's using the leverage to get. What he wants, Rob, if you want to play that clip here for.

• 36:54Speaker 05

  That's where his comment comes in. He's defending.

• 36:56Patrick Bet-David?

  I know, I know he is because he's trying to get that 600 billion to a trillion dollars because he knows.

• 37:01Speaker 05

  Saudis don't have it. That's the thing. They're already out there borrowing dollars. Last year, for the first time in a long time, the Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian economy had to borrow external funds. They actually borrowed more in dollars outside of Saudi Arabia than they had.

• 37:13Patrick Bet-David?

  How much did they borrow last year?

• 37:14Speaker 05

  I don't know exactly the number from SAMA.

• 37:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Saudi, the government borrowed more money?

• 37:18Speaker 05

  They had, yeah, because with oil prices down, with so many of those internal projects sucking up resources in Saudi Arabia, they actually have some of a cash shortage in Saudi Arabia.

• 37:27Patrick Bet-David?

  You're right. Last year, they borrowed 23 billion dollars. Government planned to borrow about 23 billion dollars for 200.

• 37:33Speaker 05

  Net asset acquisition in 2024 was actually negative, which means they're borrowing more outside the country than they're bringing in.

• 37:39Patrick Bet-David?

  The total national government debt increased to an estimated 319 billion dollars.

• 37:43Speaker 05

  They're scaling back all those mega projects. The fiscal deficit is off the charts. Saudi Arabia is in trouble.

• 37:49Patrick Bet-David?

  They may not even have the 600 billion to invest here.

• 37:51Speaker 05

  No, no, they're, they need 80 dollar oil. They need 80 dollar oil at a minimum.

• 37:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me ask you this question.

• 37:58Speaker 05

  Your analogy, the toaster to the car wash, exactly right.

• 38:00Patrick Bet-David?

  So let me ask this question here. So then if that's the case, does, does the president know that? Don't you think the president knows that? So then if he knows that, is this, is this just marketing?

• 38:11Speaker 05

  What can I, what can I give you to cushion the blow because I don't want 80 dollar oil? What can I give you to help you in transition so that, you know, Saudi Arabia doesn't fall apart if oil continues to go lower?

• 38:22Patrick Bet-David?

  I thought, I thought I saw they're buying, they're selling them jets.

• 38:25Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 38:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Right? I don't know what the number was. I thought I saw 100 million dollars a pop.

• 38:29Speaker 05

  And that was something that had, that had been never even on the table before. They said, we're never going to sell you the 35s.

• 38:34Tom Ellsworth?

  I think Trump's doing a great job. And what you're seeing there is the guy that we elected to use tariffs and other tools to get people to negotiate. He's got Saudis playing ball. And I'll tell you, here's the card that the Saudis have. The Saudis want destabilization of Venezuela. They want to disrupt the supply of Venezuelan oil because right now Venezuela is selling oil to China. If China's buying oil on the backside of the Panama Canal from Venezuela, and they are, then who are they not buying it from? Saudis.

• 39:03Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 39:03Tom Ellsworth?

  And so therefore, a destabilized, a military action that interrupts the flow of oil in Venezuela will cause the price of oil go up and Saudi will sell to other people.

• 39:14Speaker 05

  The other way to make money is if prices won't go up, how do you make more money? Sell more stuff.

• 39:19Tom Ellsworth?

  Two X the volume at seventy dollars a barrel.

• 39:21Speaker 05

  If Venezuela is off the table.

• 39:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Then they could sell it for seventy.

• 39:25Speaker 05

  And then they can live with fifty dollar oil.

• 39:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Got it.

• 39:28Tom Ellsworth?

  So this is a little Rubik's Cube, but I think the guy that's in the chair there, look at that. He was very, look at his body language, look at how he was, forget the reaction to the question from ABC, that pissed him off and it should have. But look at the confidence he has and look at the.

• 39:43Patrick Bet-David?

  This is the part, Rob, this is the clip I want you to play.

• 39:45Tom Ellsworth?

  This is the guy we voted for.

• 39:47Patrick Bet-David?

  I think it is a hundred million dollars per F thirty-five. And if they were to buy, say roughly forty-eight of them, which is the number that they're talking about, a Saudi requested for forty-eight of them, that'd be forty-eight billion, four point eight billion dollars for the, for the F thirty-fives. But here's a six hundred billion dollar investment, go ahead, Rob.

• 40:03Speaker 07

  Thank you, because you've agreed to invest six hundred billion dollars into the United States. And because he's my friend, he might make it a trillion, but I'm gonna have to work on him. But it's six hundred, we can count on six hundred billion, but I just wanna say it's an honor to be your friend and it's an honor that you're here. And if you'd like to say a few words, but thank you very much. Well, thank you, Mr. President. We believe in the future of North America, we believe in what you're doing, Mr. President, is really creating a lot of good things and good foundation to create more economical growth, more business in America. And it will also your work for the world peace. I believe, Mr. President, in the, today and tomorrow, we're gonna announce that we are

• 40:46Speaker 07

  gonna increase that, that six hundred billion to almost one trillion dollar for investment, real investment and real opportunity by details in many areas. And the agreement that we are signing today in many areas in technology, in AI, in air materials, magnet, et cetera, that will create a lot of investment opportunities. So you are doing that now, you're saying to me now.

• 41:09Speaker 03

  That the 600 billion will be one trillion.

• 41:11Speaker 07

  Definitely, because what we are signing it will facilitate that.

• 41:15Speaker 03

  I like that word.

• 41:16Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause that, Rob. So, so you.

• 41:19Tom Ellsworth?

  So you're picking up the dinner check.

• 41:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 41:21Tom Ellsworth?

  And dessert.

• 41:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Look, you're getting a guy that, like you said, Tom, you know, when we were talking about who to have as a president, you want to vote for somebody that negotiates on your behalf? That's what he's doing, Rob. Is this another clip you got?

• 41:32Tom Ellsworth?

  This is one more. This is where President Trump shakes, uh, MBS's hand and then they make fun of Joe Biden.

• 41:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Go ahead.

• 41:39Speaker 07

  Son of a league, Mr. President.

• 41:43Speaker 03

  And Trump doesn't give a fist pump. I grabbed that hand. I don't give a hell where that hand's been. I grabbed that.

• 41:54Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't give a fuck where that hand's been.

• 41:59Patrick Bet-David?

  So you little piggy and now I don't give a damn where the hand's been. Brandon, what are you thinking? Uh, yeah, no, I agree with a lot of, um, what these guys are saying. I think that, um, like Saudi has been in a tough spot for a long time. Like they're very much anticipating that the demand for oils or their, their reliance on oil is going to be a problem for them one day. So they're trying to just make it a, a destination that people want to go to. So I think that's why the, the subsidy here is that, um, US is investing in, I guess, um, property or like, um, like vacation type of real estate. So they're trying to make it like an attractive destination for rich people to go to, to offset some of that blow. Why are you pointing at me when you said that? For rich people to go to? I was waving my hands around. Okay, got it. No, it's just winter waving can moment. Yeah, hand movement, right. So Nvidia said, there, there's a major call going on today, okay?

• 42:43Patrick Bet-David?

  That everybody is waiting for, okay? The forecast of Nvidia. What is it going to be? Okay. Today or tomorrow, uh, it's either going to be a bloodbath. Uh, it could be a very, very, uh, interesting day. Uh, Rob, if you want to play this clip, go for it with Nvidia's earnings.

• 43:02Tom Ellsworth?

  How big are Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday night? It's just Super Bowl, not, not just for tech earnings, but I think this market, right? I mean, the reality is, is that there's only one godfather of AI and that's Jensen. And Nvidia, look, it's the foundation in terms of what the man looks like in terms of what we're seeing. And you and Jean and I talk about it often. I, I think it's going to be actually a huge positive growth catalyst that we see.

• 43:26Speaker 03

  Not just for Nvidia, but for tech stocks. But it all comes down to on Wednesday night, you're going to be able to hear a pin drop on trading floors around the world.

• 43:36Tom Ellsworth?

  I just don't know, Gene, how you even plan for this. Normally, you know, you've got the analyst estimates. You've got a little bit of whisper number. If they kind of come in a little bit above it, it's good news. Everybody knows Nvidia's numbers are going to be gigantic. We all, is that a fair statement?

• 43:50Speaker 06

  Yeah, it's not only a fair statement. Back on the 28th, Jensen went at the GTC. He basically gave us the playbook through the end of next year. He said this 500 billion in Blackwell and Ruben revenue. If you take that for his word, that they're going to be able to do that now. If they can get supply, that implies a 54% revenue growth rate for next year. The street's at 41%. Now, it's come up from 34 to 41. But that's the gap, as I think about this, Brian, that's the gap between where they've set the bar on the 28th.

• 44:19Tom Ellsworth?

  He gave us 54% revenue growth. I don't know a lot about Wall Street, except I do know this. 54% ain't going to do it when it comes to the stock, is it? It's going to have to be better than 54%, isn't it?

• 44:33Speaker 06

  I don't think it needs to be better than 54% this week. I think it needs to be better than the 41% where the street's at.

• 44:39Speaker 03

  Yep. And to Gene's point, look, we's getting back from Asia, being there three weeks. Demand and supply for Nvidia chips is 12 to 1. So it comes down to there's one chip.

• 44:50Tom Ellsworth?

  12 people want to order for every one potential chip that exists to order.

• 44:53Speaker 03

  So there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. And that's why it speaks to our view that anyone that, and Gene and I talk about it all the time. Anyone talks about an AI bubble here. We are in the third inning of where this is all playing out. And I think that's why this is an inflection point. You're going to see ultimately what the demand looks like from Jensen himself. And I have the view as a bullish.

• 45:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, I was going to say, what do you think about his pink jacket? But what do you think about, Jeff, what they're saying here?

• 45:20Speaker 05

  I think the, you know, it's a lot of words to basically say, we have no frigging clue what's going to happen.

• 45:27Speaker 05

  And what happens in all of these disruptive technological cycles is that, yes, the numbers look good until they don't, right?

• 45:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 45:34Speaker 05

  It's a 12 to 1 demand to supply. Well, one of these days, it'll be 11 to 1, and then it'll be 10 to 1. As all these companies reassess the numbers that are being thrown around, the amount of revenue that's just required to even have a prayer of breaking even. And then let's talk about the products themselves. It doesn't live up to the hype. So where are you going to get the demand from to maintain that type of growth rate? So the danger isn't necessarily that it's, you know, Nvidia's earnings today won't be 61% or 62%. It's whether or not we're actually seeing tangible results that actually match expectations.

• 46:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, your thoughts?

• 46:08Tom Ellsworth?

  There's a lot of forward that's built into Nvidia, and what Jeff just said is correct. But I'll tell you, it's something else that people are looking at right now. Rob, if you could really quick, go find Cisco and go Max.

• 46:20Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 46:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Cisco Max. Yep, the chart. You have the Cisco and Max. And then pull up Nvidia Max. No, Cisco's earning chart, Cisco's stock chart. Yep. Yep, and go to Max. All right, let's see if you can find the dot com bubble. It's easy to see. It's, you know, it's right there. Now, let's go take a look at Nvidia and go to Nvidia's stock chart and go Max. There you have it.

• 46:50Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 46:51Tom Ellsworth?

  Nvidia's on the front end of Cisco. What was Cisco? Cisco had 70, go back to Cisco. Cisco had 70% market share in 1999 of routers. Seven, zero. And then they bought, they were given all the IBM patents, and IBM said, screw it, I'm out of the router business, as the story goes. And they were at 84% market share of routers at the beginning of 2000. Oh, March 2000, first quarter. Go right there, right there, right there. Yep, yep, yep, yep. There you go, first quarter 2000. That's what 80% market share in a brand new market. Well, we need routers. Routers have to be everywhere. It's going to power the internet. They have to interconnect each other. That's correct. That's very, very correct. Now go to Nvidia. And you have here, the one guy with the blackwell chips that's got

• 47:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Massive market share. This is what people are looking at when they say AI bubble. These are not a bunch of bears running around like Elizabeth Warren, hoping the sky will fall on capitalists. These are people really looking at it and saying, wow, could this be an AI bubble? The same way we had an infrastructure bubble for the internet? And if so, that's, that's kind of tough. What I look for after hours today is do we head for an adjustment? Not a crash, but do we come to an adjustment where PEs come back into a line with a little bit of reality? And the way you do that is forward forecast. And a forward forecast doesn't say, and we have demand. What's demand? They're going to ask, what is demand? 12 to one, 13 to one, 11 to one. If the demand's coming back, they'll say, well, demand's softening.

• 48:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Maybe now we've got all the chips ordered that we need for the data centers, even though you still have to make them. But we priced in all the profit of making those chips into that spike right here. And, and what's their PE? 52? That's not horrible. Yeah, it was 52 yesterday.

• 48:39Speaker 05

  But if you listen to CNBC, they'll tell you it's cheap.

• 48:41Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, exactly, exactly right. So what I think about Nvidia today? Take a breath. It's going to be okay. There could be, and by the way, the option volume is suggesting that there could be a 7% downward swing today in the price. And it's hard-

• 48:57Patrick Bet-David?

  If that happens, how will the market react?

• 48:59Tom Ellsworth?

  Uh, the market react badly because, um, what was, what was Nvidia's peak, uh, three weeks ago? 208 or 210? 208, 207. I think inner day there was like a 208. So, and now we're down at 186. So we're 20 points down, 10% down, another 7% would be 17%. That is a very typical correction. Yesterday at Goldman Sachs event, people talked about you get 15% correction in a hot frothy market is not unusual. And then they say you grow into your pants, right? Now your pants are kind of baggy because the, the, the prices come down.

• 49:41Tom Ellsworth?

  But now through sales dominance, market share, you grow back into your pants. And so- It's a really big thing, just like they said today. It is the Super Bowl and it's going to determine whether we have like a Merry Christmas or where we have a managed Christmas. And what I mean by that is, does the market begin to make a little bit of adjustment? And then people have to say, okay, maybe I'm a little more cash for the fourth quarter. Maybe I'm this will be normal things that happen. But there'll be a lot of, look, the liberal media wants to see an adjustment so they can say, I told you it was a bubble. All these Wall Street bastards, you know, now they're taking it, you know, and these guys just lost $2 billion. They didn't, they lost that on paper, on net worth and stuff.

• 50:22Tom Ellsworth?

  And so, one way, you're going to have, I think, a flat, slightly up response, and the other way, you have a down response. But I don't see that we have Nvidia saves the world like they did last summer.

• 50:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so I have a whole follow-up question, but I'm going to come to you to see if you have a different take on this.

• 50:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 50:39Patrick Bet-David?

  And I got a follow-up for you guys. Go ahead, Brandon.

• 50:41Speaker 06

  Yeah, I think the entirety of not only just the stock market, but the like entire US economy is, looks well on the outside, looking in because of the AI, I guess, bubble, because of the like national flywheel that has all these giant seven companies spending money hand over fist on these chips from Nvidia. And probably because they're competing to create the best AI product and like that's what the data centers are for, but like that's like the sole reason that the economy looks good right now. I think that the actual Main Street is doing much worse than the stock market, but I think that if Nvidia takes a dive, the entire market takes a dive because it's probably what, like eight or nine percent of the S and P right now?

• 51:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and what is eight or nine percent?

• 51:20Speaker 06

  Nvidia.

• 51:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, so Nvidia's eight or nine percent. But the question I was going to ask all three of you guys is, this year, S and P 500 rate of return is roughly 13 or 14 percent, give or take, right? Do you know what percentage of the S and P 500 is a max seven companies?

• 51:40Speaker 05

  And it's kind of max six.

• 51:41Speaker 06

  Twenty-eight.

• 51:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Huh?

• 51:43Speaker 06

  Twenty-eight.

• 51:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Thirty-five to thirty-seven percent.

• 51:45Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 51:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Seven companies represent nearly 40 percent.

• 51:50Speaker 05

  That's why they're talking about it being the Super Bowl, because it's the only team playing.

• 51:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, but this is the scary part though, right there. If you look at it, at 35 to 38 percent, the seven companies, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and then Tesla.

• 52:02Speaker 05

  So the question is, are these stocks representative of the economy?

• 52:05Patrick Bet-David?

  That's the question, yes.

• 52:06Speaker 05

  The overall system, or are they representative of just this narrow segment?

• 52:08Patrick Bet-David?

  So fellow on Monect is asking me a question yesterday, and I told him, I said, we're going to talk about it on the podcast, so he's getting the preview on this. So S and P is up thirteen, fourteen percent. Markets doing great. You take seven out, it's a very different story, right? So what is the market doing? How is the market doing? What's the market looking like when it comes on to wanting to, you know, buy properties? You know, other industries, hotels. You know, you're seeing some data coming out that just doesn't make any sense in certain other industries. So how bad are things outside of max seven? Jeff, I'll come to first.

• 52:48Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's the market you want to look at is not stocks. Stocks are somewhat their own reality. The market you want to look at for economic fundamentals is bonds, interest rates, shapes of curves and things like that. Esoteric indications. But I will say for the stock market, I know we want to get into this a little bit later. Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies is sort of a proxy for general risk taking. With Bitcoin being crushed over the last couple of weeks, it suggests that there is a growing anxiety about a whole bunch of topics. I think we'll get into here. That's not just related to Nvidia and what their demand versus supply numbers are. It's the overall environment. Has it, has the AI bubble gone too far? And what will that do to the overall economy if it does start to falter here? What are the underlying mechanics in the economy itself?

• 53:30Speaker 05

  And does that actually, does that lead to the marketplace, the financial marketplace looking to take more risks in things like buying stocks? Or investing in real economy projects? Because I know we were talking about this a little bit. Uh, you're right. The mainstream situation is not like it is in what you see in Nvidia and AI. You just look at the consumer, um, the consumer staple stocks, for example. They are huge laggards to the rest of the market. Yes, they're up, but they're not up nearly as much. So the overall, that's why I think Bitcoin in particular is useful as a proxy for the marginal risk taker in the marketplace. And that one has turned decisively ugly over the last couple of weeks.

• 54:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so when I look at UBS, UBS just comes out and puts, I guess this is, this is the word we're going to be using today. UBS comes out and Rob, if you want to pull this up, puts US recession odds at ninety-three percent.

• 54:24Speaker 05

  Damn.

• 54:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Is what they said, not, not fifty percent, not forty percent, ninety-three percent. Some may even ask, if you were to take the max seven out, are we in a recession, but nobody knows it?

• 54:37Tom Ellsworth?

  It's market breadth, right?

• 54:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, uh, right there. UBS currently assigns a 93% probability of US recession based on its analysis on hard data such as employment, industrial production, income and consumption.

• 54:47Speaker 05

  Well, you look at the macroeconomic statistics heading into the summer, I mean, before the government shut down. You look at the labor report, I mean, there's a negative payroll number on the board for June. So we're already job shedding and that's been confirmed by ADP and a number of other surveys, including the Federal Reserve's own surveys. Consumer, we talked about this earlier, consumer sentiment has been decisively negative all year because consumers realize there are no jobs. So the situation on mainstream is far more dire than people who are only focused on the stock market are really getting a sense of.

• 55:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Tom. So, um, I'm about to get slaughtered on both sides. On one side, you hear me talk about the market. The market is managing itself to the, to the benefit of the shareholders. That's what the market is doing. So as you said, Wall Street is its own world. It's a very big world. And by the way, Mag7, they talk about Mag7. Mag7 is bigger than all of the European stock markets. All. ALL. So Mag7 is bigger than the entire continent of Europe on an investment basis. So it is a

• 55:45Speaker 05

  Huge red flag. That's a bright flag.

• 55:47Tom Ellsworth?

  They should have their own flag, their own blue flag with seven stars on it and be like, we got your, we got your EU right here.

• 55:54Speaker 05

  7500, wow.

• 55:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep. And so now then, so they are managing to manage profits, which includes layoffs, which includes active use of AI and a lot of things like that because they're trying to manage profits. That's the stock market. Let, I'm gonna call it right here. I have felt for the last two months that we should be using the phrase labor recession because I believe we are in a labor recession. And I think that there are numbers that the government under Biden has been, that they haven't fully, you know, fixed the way they were doing. Let me, let me say why, Pat. If you overstate actual labor because they use average incomes and a percent of income for tax and then a percent of income for spending,

• 56:40Tom Ellsworth?

  you're overstating GDP estimates. Makes sense? Oh, you didn't have that many people working, so you can't take 20, I think that's 17%. Take 17% out for taxes and the rest is what they spend in the economy on this, that and the other. And they overspend. Here's some facts going on right now. Credit cards have hit 1.25 trillion. We're back, we're back into that territory again. So number one. Number two, car repos are going to be the highest this year since, you ready for this number, Pat? 2009. Car repos this year will be highest since 2009. It's almost there right now and all it has to have is

• 57:22Tom Ellsworth?

  a little bit of trend in November, December, and it beats 2009. The fastest growing delinquency, by the way, people like Cox Automotive, they cover repos. They like to say, oh, no, no, you're just talking about subprime. Subprime borrowers got into trouble because interest rates were so high and they had nine and 10 and 11% loans. No, no, no, no, no. Would you like to know right now, today, going into fourth quarter, the fastest growth in delinquencies in car loans is prime borrowers, not super prime, prime.

• 57:52Speaker 05

  And prime that are age between 30 and 39, so prime working age borrowers.

• 57:57Tom Ellsworth?

  Correct. That's exactly right. Thank you very much.

• 57:59Speaker 05

  Huge red flag.

• 58:00Tom Ellsworth?

  We're on that. Also, that also what you have, that's just that. You now also have people talking about mortgage delinquencies. And by the way, Rob, will you pull this up, the chart I sent you?

• 58:17Tom Ellsworth?

  It's the one on the refi denials. Look what is happening to mortgage refi denials. It's not that one. It's the other one I sent you. I sent you just the...

• 58:29Speaker 05

  These are the two that were sent.

• 58:30Tom Ellsworth?

  No, no, no, no, no. You, down in my, my email, there's a couple of them. The mortgage charts, denials are up in red. Yep.

• 58:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, while he's looking for this, I just looked this up. So here's, and I'm going to bring you back to you because with Mac 7, S and P is up 15 to 16% year to date. Without it, it's still up 12 or 13%.

• 58:52Tom Ellsworth?

  That's correct. They're successfully managing it.

• 58:55Patrick Bet-David?

  How much of it is Mag7 driving everybody else? So if Mag7 climbs, everybody else follows.

• 59:01Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, and by the way.

• 59:02Speaker 05

  It gives you protection. If you have the Mag7 stocks that are rising, then you can buy everything else and justify it as the market is going higher.

• 59:09Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, and it's just the, go to refinance, the next one down on the left column, left column, right there. Go take a look at that, Pat. This is the denials and refis. These are all the people that coming out of COVID. Remember when they came out of COVID and some people got seven and a halfs and seven three quarters and some eights? Remember that?

• 59:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 59:28Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, guess what's happened? The rates now have down to six and a quarter, six and an eighth, or pay a point and get five and seven eights, but they're getting denied by the bank. Why? Because you're late on your car loan and your credit card is 1.25 trillion. That's what's happening right now.

• 59:45Patrick Bet-David?

  This is, if you look at this year, the blue is application rate, which is the lowest it's been in 10 years. The last 24 months, the higher one, just first quarter of 2024.

• 59:54Speaker 05

  That's higher interest rates. Some of that is due to higher interest rates.

• 59:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, which is fine, which is fine because we see the decline coming from Q2 of 2021 when they started increasing rates. And that just kind of came down, right? And in the last 12 and a half, you know, 18 months, it's been flat. But for rejection to be at 45.7.

• 1:00:14Tom Ellsworth?

  All time high since they've been measuring it.

• 1:00:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Stop it, Tom.

• 1:00:16Speaker 05

  That's the banking sector saying.

• 1:00:17Tom Ellsworth?

  All time high since they've been measuring it.

• 1:00:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you kidding me?

• 1:00:20Tom Ellsworth?

  I am not kidding.

• 1:00:21Speaker 05

  That's the banking sector saying the economy sucks.

• 1:00:24Patrick Bet-David?

  When did they start measuring it, though?

• 1:00:26Tom Ellsworth?

  2010, 2012.

• 1:00:27Speaker 05

  For that statistic, I think it goes back to 2003.

• 1:00:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, that's a good ample enough of inventory of data to now. There's enough events that's happened since then. So, okay, so you said something while I interrupted you. I was speaking, both of us were speaking at the same time. I want to make sure the audience hears what you said. That is the way of banks saying what?

• 1:00:47Speaker 05

  The economy sucks. That's banks saying we have all of the fundamental information when somebody fills out a credit application. We've got their jobs, we've got their income, we've got their credit score.

• 1:00:58Tom Ellsworth?

  Underwriting.

• 1:00:58Speaker 05

  Every, well, when they actually do it.

• 1:01:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, then, let me get into, let me get into the.

• 1:01:02Speaker 05

  So the banks are saying, I have your information here and the stuff on here doesn't qualify.

• 1:01:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Can we add one more thing to put in perspective? Meta, two weeks ago, had 11% decline, remember? The stock, Facebook, Meta, had a big decline. A week later, they sold to the street $25 billion in bonds. How many times oversubscribed was it? Because you know when they say oversubscribed, more people want to think can get it?

• 1:01:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Not many.

• 1:01:29Tom Ellsworth?

  5X.

• 1:01:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:30Tom Ellsworth?

  There was $125 billion at the door, willing to, trying to get in.

• 1:01:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Because they want to put the money to work.

• 1:01:36Tom Ellsworth?

  And because they're going to get a fixed interest rate from Facebook. Facebook's got to sell the bond at a rate. So what they're saying is, they trust more of the bond right now than they trust the actual stock price.

• 1:01:48Speaker 05

  That's why, that number is why.

• 1:01:50Tom Ellsworth?

  So it drops 11%, but Facebook is able to sell.

• 1:01:53Patrick Bet-David?

  But let me get to this. I don't want to confuse the two. I don't want to confuse, I want to stay here, I want to stay here.

• 1:01:57Tom Ellsworth?

  But it's all the same money.

• 1:01:58Patrick Bet-David?

  I understand it, but we're talking about mortgage, mortgage application specifically. So I want to get to the story here because this was a topic yesterday also when we were at the Goldman Sachs meeting when they asked the Vice Chair, Rob Kaplan, on what, what the thoughts are on 50-year mortgages, as well as this mortgage, portable mortgages. So Trump is considering portable mortgages, this is New York Post, here's how it works. Federal Housing Agency Director Bill Palti said the government agency is actively evaluating portable mortgages, which would allow homeowners to transfer their loan from their current home to a new home when they move. With portable mortgages, the homeowner would effectively be able to keep their existing interest rate in terms, instead of paying off the loan and getting a new one.

• 1:02:40Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a strategy designed to inject movement into a stagnant housing market. Many homeowners would be buyers, have remained on the sidelines because they are reluctant to trade their sub 3% mortgage rates for today's loans hovering around 6.5%. Realtor.com Senior Economist Jimmy Kimmel told Fox Business that these types of mortgages aren't compatible with the architecture of US mortgage finance, nor would they fix the broader affordability problems facing the housing market if they were. So, the question is what? I have a million dollar home. But I have a million dollar home, I'm paying three, three and a, three and a half percent. Now, if I want to go sell this, yes, I bought the house at 700. I will get $300,000 of equity out.

• 1:03:25Patrick Bet-David?

  So if I get the $300,000 equity out and I go buy a different house, I'm gonna have to go from a three and a half to six and a half. So I'm better off staying in this and not having to remove that three and a half I have. This is a way of saying, you can actually keep that interest rate and take that loan into a new house, sell your house and buy another one and you won't lose that interest rate. But how do they do that, Jeff?

• 1:03:45Speaker 05

  Yeah, how do you do that?

• 1:03:46Patrick Bet-David?

  How do you do it?

• 1:03:47Speaker 05

  The question is, I mean-

• 1:03:48Patrick Bet-David?

  What bank is gonna prove that?

• 1:03:49Speaker 05

  You have to, you have a collateral swap, you have to look at what, what, what, is this house gonna be collateral for the new loan? I mean, the logistics of that are, are pretty close to nightmarish.

• 1:03:59Patrick Bet-David?

  The logistics to me would be, who's gonna entertain that? Who's gonna prove that? And if they did, of course, this-

• 1:04:07Speaker 05

  You know how this is gonna work? What they're gonna say is the government's gonna come in and say, we'll guarantee. We'll guarantee something about this to get banks to do it. We'll cover you in case you thought you had this one house that you lent against. They, now the buyer swaps to another house. If there's any problem with that house, the second house that, you know, the mortgage ports to, we'll cover the difference. That's what's gonna have to happen and that, I think that's the exact, the, the, the way that they're moving.

• 1:04:31Patrick Bet-David?

  That would be a tru- a trillion dollar solution, though. I mean, it's not, and-

• 1:04:35Speaker 05

  I don't think it'll work, but I think that's what the government is aiming to do.

• 1:04:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Okay, I take you back to 1982. And in 1982, the Garn Saint Germain Depository Institution Act. Rob will find it, I'm sure he will. And what happened is, they sat there and they said, they came to Congress and they said, hey, it's 1982. What were interest rates starting to do?

• 1:04:59Patrick Bet-David?

  This is post-Carter.

• 1:05:01Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep, the, the interest rates were in trouble. And so, at that time, you could have an assumable loan. When you bought my house, Pat, you could assume my loan and its competitively low interest rate as long as Jeff, my friendly banker, said, oh, let me check out Pat. Yes, not only, you, you determine the price yourself, but as long as he has the difference between the loan- And you're in that you have and the price you guys do it, but you know what? He's a perfectly fine consumer to me. I will approve him to assume your loan and you got my 5% loan or my 3.5% loan. And you were happy and you bought my house in 1982 until the entire financial sector ran to Congress and said, we need the Garn St. Germain Depository Institution Act.

• 1:05:45Tom Ellsworth?

  You make it, you have to make it legal for us to call all mortgages to full payment upon sale or transfer. You have to make it legal for us to do that. Here, here's your act. You can do it. Great. And they all ran back and guess what? Every mortgage in America had to be paid on sale of the house. It wasn't that way before 1982. And that way, the banks got to put the new prevailing interest rate on your house. And that's how it worked. And now they're looking to go back to that. Not all the banks are going to say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, we're not doing this. We're not doing this because the banks would have to manage money differently.

• 1:06:26Tom Ellsworth?

  If, if you had locked in fair and square for a 6% mortgage and the rates are at nine, prime rate is up.

• 1:06:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, I want to show you something though. Watch this, Rob. Can you go to the poll you just ran? Just watch what the audience is saying. He ran a poll. The question is, are you in favor of Trump's administration plan of portable mortgages? Okay. Look what the audience is saying. 56% is saying yes, right? Meaning, most people I talk to, they don't know how it works. They don't even know how you're going to do it. But guess what they're for? Man, if you're going to do, I'm for, you know, allow me to keep my rate. Allow me to keep my rate. To me, the sequencing of challenges you face with this is you have to go to the banks and say, guys, just transfer the rate to a new loan. What's the big deal? You already have the risk on there anyways. Just transfer it.

• 1:07:18Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I gave that rate four years ago. I don't want to do it to a new loan. The rates are now this, I'm losing money on that. Well, do it anyways. It's okay. Just do it anyways because you're better off having a client paying the mortgage instead of. Them defaulting on it and it's going to create more activity. No, no, no, we don't want that. We're not even approving this, the lowest, highest rate of us rejecting applications.

• 1:07:40Tom Ellsworth?

  But you gave it to grandma for 30 years.

• 1:07:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Stay with me, Tom. Stay, please, let me just go through this flow real quick and then interrupt me. So, and then, but no, we're lowering, we're rejecting 47% of people with mortgages today. We don't even want the application. And they're gonna go, yeah, but you have to do it because people are not buying homes. Cause they can't afford it. Yep, but, but I have to stay in business. I understand you have to stay in business. But, but we gotta, we gotta find a way to make money. And then it's gonna go to Jeff's thing. Which the only solution is gonna be what? Okay, listen, wink, wink. Just do it, you know, we'll give you the protection. We'll come and protect for this. You see where this is going?

• 1:08:20Speaker 05

  We aren't even talking about the real problem here. Everybody talks about affordability. It's number one, it's the number one political issue across the spectrum. It's the reason why that poll is like it is.

• 1:08:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:29Speaker 05

  You cannot blame people for saying, I want this because affordability is a problem. But what are we really saying when we say affordability? What we're saying is, when we went through the pandemic, prices rose much faster than incomes did. Housing prices rose much faster, car prices rose much faster. People fell behind because of the pandemic and the lockdowns and the supply squeeze and prices going higher. That's what people are saying. What they're saying is, I don't have enough income, I don't have a job that I, that pays me enough to pay for all these higher prices. Whether it be houses, cars, or even food, we're gonna talk about beef. So what, we're not even talking about the major problem here, which is a macroeconomic problem of the main street labor recession. We don't have enough income.

• 1:09:13Tom Ellsworth?

  Now you said it, I said it, now you said it.

• 1:09:14Speaker 05

  Well, I like that term. I think it fits really well.

• 1:09:17Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm not calling the market, I'm calling labor.

• 1:09:19Speaker 05

  Me too. I'm, macroeconomic fund, I don't care about the stock market.

• 1:09:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you do me a favor, both of you guys? Explain this to the audience that's watching this right now. Based on numbers, data, what you mean by it? So what is the difference between a, you know, labor recession? What's the difference between other types of, consumer recession? What's the difference between other types of recessions that we have?

• 1:09:37Speaker 05

  I don't think there's any real difference because to me the macroeconomy has to be a labor economy. It's not if if the we're seeing labor market that is actually shedding jobs, which means it's no longer growing, it's no longer adding jobs, it's actually subtracting jobs because companies are cutting back. And why are they cutting back? Because they don't have enough profitability, there's not enough business coming in, generalized downturn. If you have an economy that's shedding jobs, it's in a recession, I don't care what you want to call it. I don't care if the NBER, which is the group of economists that get together and decide what is a recession, what isn't. We don't care what they say. This is again, like I said, this is the reason why people are so pissed off and angry is because they fell farther behind after the pandemic and with the labor market going into this recessionary condition, they're falling further and further behind. They're not even making up the ground that they lost several years ago.

• 1:10:22Speaker 05

  So people, this is what when they talk about affordability crisis, this is what we're talking about, always goes back to the labor market, jobs and incomes. There are not enough jobs, there's not enough income that's that's that's enough to pay for even just the the price changes from several years ago, let alone any additional price changes that come about this year and moving forward. So I mean, labor recession, that's a pretty, pretty descriptive term.

• 1:10:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so so let me let me come to you guys. Here's a question and how do you address the affordability challenge right now going into 2028? Both parties have to address the affordability issue, right? Midterms is around the corner. With midterms being around the corner, we're 12 months away from the midterms is where we are. I want to say Kalshi and Kalshi is saying, give or take, I want to say it's Kalshi that said this, that 70% likelihood that the Democrats are going to win the midterms next year. It's going to be a plus minus more Democrats than it is going to be with Republicans. That's what the numbers are at. It could change right now where it's at, but the last time I saw was at 70%. So if it's going right now, yeah, there you go, 72% Kalshi has Democrats winning.

• 1:11:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Versus, and by the way, the closest it got was when, a couple of weeks ago, what was the number? Fifty-five, fifty. Okay, but it's pretty much Democrats. All right, so you guys are consultants to both political parties. They want to find out, how do you fix the affordability issue? How do you do it, Jeff?

• 1:11:48Speaker 05

  Well, one thing you gotta stop doing is to make the same mistake that politicians have been making since the pandemic hit, and really going back further than that, is to say the economy's booming. This thing, this sucker's great, just look at the stock market. That just pisses people off more than anything else. You wonder why there's a socialist as mayor of New York City? That's why. Because people don't have jobs, they don't have enough income to pay for things, and here you are telling them how great everything is. Well, this is great, sign me up for socialism. That's one thing you gotta stop. We gotta stop saying the economy is booming, and this is, this is, this tracks with political parties all over the planet. You look at countries around the rest of the world, you look at Germany. Germany just changed governments, it's already incredibly unpopular. Because they said, well, we're gonna do this major fiscal spending push, we'll call it a bazooka.

• 1:12:31Speaker 05

  Massive, huge, five-hundred-billion-dollar Euro fiscal stimulus. Not gonna do anything. It's all theater. You gotta stop with the theater and start attacking the Band-Aid.

• 1:12:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Give me two more.

• 1:12:41Speaker 05

  Two more.

• 1:12:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Give me, so it's three ways to do it. You're the consultant, I'm the government.

• 1:12:45Speaker 05

  Start being honest.

• 1:12:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, start being honest, which is gonna be hard, but what's the next one?

• 1:12:48Speaker 05

  The next thing is to get the hell out of the way of the private economy. We have way too much government interference. One of the biggest problems that we've had since 2008 to 2009, what they call nowadays fiscal dominance, it's simply that every time the economy stumbles, what happens? We need a stimulus package. We need the government to come in and do tax cuts and massive spending.

• 1:13:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Tarp, we'll fix it.

• 1:13:09Speaker 05

  That's where it started. That unleashed the debt monster. And that's what we need to, we need to stop government creeping into every aspect, not just economic life, but the bigger the government gets, the more it gets involved into your social, social life too. So we need the government to get the hell out of the way of the private sector, and stop thinking that it's gonna fix every problem with this law, or this Band-Aid, or that Band-Aid. We actually need the government to do what it was supposed to do when it came into office, and say, get the hell out of the way.

• 1:13:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, I mean, it looks like what, what could be happening here is, it could be that they want to take the interest rates back to zero, lowering it, which, uh, we, we talked about it off-camera, when Tom was talking about, every time they lowered the rate, the rate to zero, And it stays at that for two quarters, the whole quantitative easing, if you keep it at two quarters, seniors who are reliant on the money that they're getting as interest rate, cost them $70 billion. So for instance, if I got $2 million in an account, and I'm 72 years old, and I'm getting 4% income off of that, I'm just making up a number here, 2 million, 4%, 80 grand every year, babe, we're not tapping into our savings, we're just living off the interest, 2 million, 80 grand a year, as long as their lifestyle

• 1:14:20Patrick Bet-David?

  is $6,600 a month, we're gonna be okay, we're gonna go, that's perfect, babe, and then they do quantitative easing, and then they go to zero. And then that 4% that was giving me 80 grand a year now goes to zero, I'm getting zero. So now my 2 million becomes 1.92, well, my 9.2 becomes 1.84, then, you know, and the next thing you know, you took 70 billion dollars away, 71 billion dollars, we give or take, from the seniors. But Tom, going back to you, how do you fix the affordability issue?

• 1:14:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Okay, I like what he said. He said, number one, messaging with truth, number two, theater, can you fake it? Number three, get out of the way, you know, on regulation. So that is, those are more broad, let me go more narrow, so that we kind of complement each other here. Right now, Americans are feeling a pinch for two simple reasons. Inflation jumped under Biden because he printed all the money, number one, and those prices never came back down, especially cost of housing. What can you do to help right now? I believe, what I'm seeing in the labor market and things, the Fed, who's been looking at these figures, and right now doing a head fake on people, and by the way, I looked it up today on some

• 1:15:32Tom Ellsworth?

  of the markets, the Caoshi market today, it says it's only 50/50 to even get a 0.25 cut. And by the way, economists, the CME Watch Group, just go to CME Watch, Fed Watch. Yep, CME Watch Tool, take a look at this. These are everybody listening, watching the Fed. They're at 50/50. They only believe there's a 50% chance of a .25 cut by Powell in December. There needs to be a half a rate cut and then hold, hold and let that help people. Also, you know who that helps? That helps Estados Unidos, who has a great, big, giant refi of T-bills coming in the first quarter, end of first quarter, I believe. It's a giant stack of T-bills have to refi in the first quarter.

• 1:16:16Tom Ellsworth?

  If you move the interest rate down, now Trump's government budget can refi those at a more moderated rate. Now, let's go to the consumer. Power and food. What he just did is taking off the tariffs on fruit products, fresh fruit and some things last week. Very important, very important. Now, he's got to go to protein, chicken, pork and beef. You got to figure out how we help those prices come down for the consumer. And the next one is power. Right now, data centers, I'm going to get pissed off. Data centers are being built, not with profits, but with bonds. I looked at it last night, I was up till 1 a.m. and I realized just how much of this data center build out is being bonds. And they said, "Oh, we're making so much money on this and so much money AI services."

• 1:17:00Tom Ellsworth?

  They are, but they're doing it. And what they're doing is they're creating excess demand for a limited supply of electricity. So, the price is going up. You take a simple stroke of the pen. All it takes is Trump to do this. Part of your bond has to be a two-year subsidy on the excess electricity that you're using so that the communities that are getting the benefit of jobs, there's a few jobs for construction and people that will actually work at the data centers, that their local electricity prices don't go up. But don't do it as a government subsidy, don't do it as a tax credit. Say, "Look, you want to build the data center? Then you either have to do what Google did and what Oracle did, where they build the small nukes. You know, they got the permits for the small nukes right next to the data center."

• 1:17:43Tom Ellsworth?

  So, that's Google and Oracle saying, "Well, I'll just build my own power right here because there's not enough power for me to buy and I'm going to build my data center." The other way, I build the data center, power's right over there. Fantastic, Chesapeake will give me the power. I think Chesapeake operates Three Mile Island. Right now, how much percent of their Chesapeake's output for the restarted Three Mile Island has Microsoft bought for the next five years? 100%! They're buying 100% of the output of the Three Mile Island power plant. Microsoft is doing it. So, food, electricity, and interest rates, right now, and interest rates will help the credit card balances, but the power be very simple saying, "Hey, if you're building these

• 1:18:25Tom Ellsworth?

  data centers, you either have to build your own power, or you need, as part of the bonds, you need to do a two-year prepay on..."

• 1:18:32Patrick Bet-David?

  I got you. Brandon, how about you?

• 1:18:33Speaker 06

  Alright, so, easy. You gotta create a national gold rush around the idea of building homes. Like, I don't wanna hear anything about the 50-year mortgage, or the portable mortgages, or anything like that. Like, cut taxes to zero for home builders, subsidize people who wanna do it, create incentive programs where you can apply for a low-interest government loan to build a home, and then you don't get taxed on it once you sell it. But, these homes have to be protected from the acquisition of companies like Blackstone and Blackrock, because that's another thing pushing the price up. So, I don't wanna go all, you know, communist or whatever, and say you can't buy houses, but the new houses, like, from this point on, like, maybe for the next five years under this program, can't be bought by a company, because there's like a 4 million home shortage in America for these type of

• 1:19:18Speaker 06

  homes. Cut zoning laws, remove regulations around lumber. Like, we have, like, the second most lumber of every, any country in the world, and we're, we have a lumber shortage somehow for building homes. And then, like, we only produce 2% of the world's cement, so the government couldn't invest and subsidize in companies that wanna become a cement company. It costs like 500 million to become a cement company. We used to produce like 80% of the world's cement. Now, today, it's 2%. China produces 50%. You know, so, that's for housing. And then, I would say for food, you know, why not, like, invest in stuff like vertical farming, and not be so reliant on, like, the traditional farms? Why not subsidize the ranchers who, like, are getting crushed by the big four beef companies? And investigate these big four beef companies, who are kinda sketchy,

• 1:20:00Speaker 06

  by the way. I think two of them aren't even domestic companies, so, they, like, lowball the hell out of these ranchers, and that's why there's, like, such a shrinking supply of beef.

• 1:20:09Patrick Bet-David?

  What I want to do, while you guys are talking about this with labor shortage, there's two stories I'm gonna read to you and you tell me what direction we should go with this. So, one story, Ford comes out, CO4, Jim Farley, says he can't fill 5,000 mechanic jobs at $125,000 a year salary, $120,000 a year salary. We're in trouble in our country. Rob, if you want to play this clip, go for it.

• 1:20:31Tom Ellsworth?

  As of this morning, we had 5,000 openings, a bay with a lift and tools and no one to work in it. Are you kidding me? Nope. $120,000 a job a year, but it takes you five years to learn it. Take a diesel out of a Super Duty, it takes a lot of skill. You need to know what you're doing. And God forbid we ever get in a war, Google's not gonna be able to make, you know, the tanks and the planes. So this is a self-defense for our country issue. But how I think about it is if we work together-

• 1:21:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Wow, you can just pause it right there, by the way. Did you just hear what he just said?

• 1:21:07Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 1:21:08Patrick Bet-David?

  He said if we go to war, who are they gonna go to to say, can you build this XYZ for me? They're not gonna go to Google, they're not gonna go to Apple, they're gonna go to these guys. And it takes how many years, he said, to train to take a diesel?

• 1:21:18Speaker 05

  That's it, right?

• 1:21:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Master mechanic. And by the way, he said it earlier when he said about education early on in the first three minutes. But go ahead, you were gonna say something about that.

• 1:21:27Speaker 05

  That is the whole problem right there. What he's saying is that if somebody has to invest five years of their time and likely huge expense to become a master mechanic. So yes, they're promising $120,000 a year job, but somebody has to invest their time, effort and money to become qualified. And people do not want to take that risk.

• 1:21:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so this is coming to my next question, okay? And I want to know what the solution is. So if we have a labor shortage, if we have companies like Ford that are sitting there saying, hey man, I need 5,000 people at 120, I'm having a hard time, if we go to war, how the hell am I gonna build this stuff for you? When the US government comes knocking on the door saying, hey guys, we need it right now, we need you to build this for us right now. Then a story comes out of Financial Times. Number of new foreign students in US falls 17% over we's visa worries. And Jeff, I want to know which you're gonna say about this. You sound like a pretty reasonable guy. So, American universities, Rob, I think you got a clip on this one here. Is this, is this, she's just giving the report on it?

• 1:22:29Speaker 05

  Yeah, she's just giving the news.

• 1:22:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm just gonna read this here, it's fine. American universities have suffered one of the sharpest ever declines in foreign enrollments in the face of tough policies from President Trump with the number of new international students falling 17% this year. A survey of 825 US higher education institutions showed 57% report falling new enrollments by students while only 29% recorded an increase, any increase.

• 1:22:57Patrick Bet-David?

  The result raised concerns over the impact on universities of declining tuition revenue along with the less tangible effect that having fewer foreign students will have an innovation economic, economic growth. The data provided by the International Institute of Education and sponsored by the State Department compounds a drop of 7% in new international enrollments in 2425, including a fall of 15% among graduates who make up the largest shortage. This is a significant decline which shows that government policies have implications, particularly at the graduate level where the US benefits the most, says Fanta, the chief executive of NAFSA, the Association of International Educators. So, when we're looking at this here, okay?

• 1:23:38Patrick Bet-David?

  And we're looking at labor shortage, Ford's having a hard time placing, companies are laying off, the debate about allowing others to come from other countries, and President Trump says, "We're gonna have 600,000 Chinese students coming here to become students." He gets pushed back by Laura Ingraham, says, "Why not 300,000?" "Well, you know, we want 300,000 more, it's better to get the brains here, you know, the colleges need students, the colleges need money." So, that labor shortage, Jeff, labor shortage, how do you solve it?

• 1:24:11Speaker 05

  There is no such thing as a labor shortage.

• 1:24:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:24:13Speaker 05

  The problem with Ford is the 120,000 salary is not high enough. You want to fill those bays? Pay the market rate. The rate that will get people off of the couch to invest in their time and effort and become those mechanics.

• 1:24:28Patrick Bet-David?

  You think that would be the change?

• 1:24:28Speaker 05

  Yes. There's no such thing as a labor shortage. The only labor shortage comes about when companies are refusing to pay the market clearing rate.

• 1:24:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so then who? If he's choosing those numbers, if you go to salary.com.

• 1:24:42Speaker 05

  His data tells him it's not working. I don't have the mechanics at 120,000. Then you need to pay 250,000. It's that simple.

• 1:24:50Patrick Bet-David?

  You think at 250, he gets that 5,000?

• 1:24:52Speaker 05

  I don't know what the number is, but it's higher.

• 1:24:54Patrick Bet-David?

  So you think that's it? That's the solution?

• 1:24:57Speaker 05

  This is the solution for any time.

• 1:24:58Patrick Bet-David?

  So that's four.

• 1:24:59Speaker 05

  And then the other thing, with the visas, does anybody here really think the number of students in college correlates with anything that has to do with economic advance? We've had more people in college over the last 40 years, and it hasn't contributed much to, you know, what's opposed to the advancement, the working stock of the United States. You put more people in college, all it does is make money for the colleges. And you said that to yourself when you read the article. Said it's more money with the Chinese students coming in. Does that actually advance American interests, whether it be economic or national interests? Or is it just more money for the colleges to expand whatever it is colleges do these days?

• 1:25:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Does it change if they're studying productive things, though, versus things that are not productive?

• 1:25:41Speaker 05

  How do we know? I mean, how do we know?

• 1:25:42Tom Ellsworth?

  I guess what the economy needs. Like, if there's, like, people who are unqualified for needed jobs, and then people start going to school for those jobs, is that more productive than people going to school for, like, gender studies?

• 1:25:51Speaker 05

  But that's the thing. Do the Chinese students come in? What are they actually studying?

• 1:25:54Patrick Bet-David?

  They're not studying gender studies.

• 1:25:55Tom Ellsworth?

  No, are you sure? A lot of Americans are, though.

• 1:25:59Speaker 05

  But that's what I'm saying. More people in college doesn't necessarily solve the problem here.

• 1:26:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, Rob, can you do me a favor? I don't know about that. Can we debate that? Can we debate that argument and take the opposing position? Are you comfortable taking? Take the opposing position. Go with that.

• 1:26:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Colleges do make the country more productive.

• 1:26:18Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, two things. Not just colleges. It's, okay, so if we are not willing to bring the best and the brightest in here. The other day, I'm in Goldman Sachs, okay? They had their orientation class. I don't know if you caught what happened, Tom.

• 1:26:37Patrick Bet-David?

  They had their orientation class. I walked up to see who's at the orientation class. Obviously, I'm not supposed to go there. I walk up and I'm just sizing everybody up. You know what I'm sizing up? What do you think I'm looking at? What do you think I'm looking at? That's the new orient- I can't, it's a new orientation hire, but what do you think I'm looking for?

• 1:26:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Their eyes, like what their eyes look like?

• 1:26:57Patrick Bet-David?

  I wanna know ethnicity, I wanna know age, okay? And then I wanna know attire. Because I wanna know what's the dress code expected when you go into the orientation. I wanna know ethnicity. I wanna see patterns. I walk up-

• 1:27:10Tom Ellsworth?

  For something like that, it's young male Asians.

• 1:27:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, it's interesting. Then I walk within, they put a security right in front of the door immediately when we came back, Tom. I don't know if you noticed that part or not. So, you know what you notice? You go on a floor, one of the biggest insurance companies in America, 300 engineers, 80% all Indians, okay? Who are there? Of the 80% that are Indians, some of them came to us from IIT Institute, which in many cases, IIT Institute crushes MIT when they put them against each other on education. It's very hard. One out of every 40,000 applicant gets accepted to IIT Institute. Some weird number like that, Rob, if you can verify. So I'm pretty accurate on what percentage of folks make it to IIT Institute, not MIT, IIT Institute.

• 1:27:56Patrick Bet-David?

  So, should we not entertain taking the smartest, the brightest of other countries to come here and help us out? Or should we, should we do it the other way around and make the investment here? That's also the debate. And I know we've had this debate, and it's something most people are not comfortable with, but what would you say about that?

• 1:28:15Tom Ellsworth?

  I think we could do both. I think that we could be very selective of who we take here. And yeah, of course, we want phenoms and people who are like excellent, but no, we don't- Don't want to get into a situation where we're deciding to choose somebody from overseas because it's cheaper. And because the employer here.

• 1:28:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Not cheaper, I'm not worried about cheap. I'm willing to pay market, whatever the market prices and even a little bit more. I'm not saying twenty-five percentile. I'm saying fifty, seventy-five percentile, like you actually are willing to pay the money to get the best of the best.

• 1:28:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah. And if it's the best of the best, that's fine, then like that's a net positive. If it's a small number of people, you're very selective with it, then that's one thing, but um. I think it kind of bleeds into the wage thing where they, people, their companies feel like they could pay less for people who come from overseas.

• 1:28:57Patrick Bet-David?

  No, that's not what I'm thinking. I'm just thinking the competition of if, if, if we have certain jobs. That maybe we're not doing a good job training in. Should we not put some competition for others to come in and, you know, compete for those jobs? Or should we wait? Now, his solution is, there was five thousand jobs at one twenty, if he offered at two fifty, he didn't, he's just making up a number like you're just spitballing here. If it's two fifty, he's gonna get those jobs placed, okay? Maybe there's a point to it where you can. May, but is that the solution? Is that the, do I pay eighty percent above what the market is paying for me to hire whatever the person is? Do I, do I, do I compete and bring some other people that want those jobs?

• 1:29:41Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know. I'm asking, I'm debating to see.

• 1:29:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Think about this, like ninety-three percent of all student loans come from the government, so why are we giving loans to people who are majoring in unproductive things like? Like if we need certain jobs.

• 1:29:52Patrick Bet-David?

  I love that idea.

• 1:29:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, if we need certain jobs, why not just give loans for the job, for the majors that we need, then we'd have a bunch of engineers and. You know, AI people or whatever, the, the thing in mechanics, whatever we need are, we could flood the market with that if we only give loans for that for a couple of years for college students. But you know, we still have a whole mix of some useless jobs, some useless degrees, some important degrees, so I think we could steer the future education in whichever direction we want to.

• 1:30:16Speaker 06

  If we use the power of the student loans.

• 1:30:18Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you think?

• 1:30:19Speaker 05

  One of the problems with that is that, you know, like you said, the government gets involved in the business and then it becomes a price thing because the price of education goes way up, which means that people are spending an inordinate amount of money on degrees that don't ever pay back.

• 1:30:32Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:30:32Speaker 05

  That's what we're saying when they're unproductive. Unproductive is you're not really creating value there and the value proposition is all screwed up by the government's interference. So you don't have a labor market that's actually elastic enough to meet the matched needs. People are confused about, you know, which which direction we go. And this is again, gets back to the Ford thing. With Ford not paying the market rate for mechanics, that skews where people go. We want more people in trade schools to be able to do that, but yet they see the wage rate is 120,000. That's not really enough to, because I'm going to have to make a major expense to educate myself. But if they were paying 250,000, that would draw more people into trade schools. So there is there is a there is screwed up market signals all throughout the educational system because of the government's interference.

• 1:31:16Speaker 05

  And it's not really about deciding which jobs are going to be productive. It's the fact that we flooded these colleges with just students. I mean, we tell kids from the very beginning, you need to go to college, you need to go to college, you need to go to college. And half the people should never go to college. But because they go to college, the price of college goes ways up, goes way up. And it screws up the market signal for the entire labor market.

• 1:31:36Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree with Brandon.

• 1:31:38Speaker 05

  The point I'm making is that maybe we don't need to keep pushing people to college, whether they be US or foreign born.

• 1:31:43Patrick Bet-David?

  But check this out, here's a question. So what if we go his route? You know, you're at the you're at the meeting yesterday and all these guys are talking about, I'm a G5, I'm a G3, I'm a G2, I'm a G4. You know, fifth generation wealth, first generation wealth, second generation wealth. And then the one thing, one of the families, they did a family reunion annually. 90 people show up and it's getting more and more complicated. The family had the biggest cheese company in Wisconsin, Sargento, am I saying correctly?

• 1:32:16Speaker 05

  Sargento, yes.

• 1:32:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Sargento, yes, 1.7, 1.8 billion dollars in revenue. And one of the kids was talking about, you know, where it's at. A lot of people, people, oh my goodness, I'm 1.7 billion, every kid must be a billionaire in their family. That's not the case because you have to share that with 200, 300 people eventually, you know, 100 people, eventually you got grandkids, all this stuff. But.

• 1:32:37Patrick Bet-David?

  If you don't hit certain numbers, the family doesn't fund your education. If you don't go through certain criterias, I actually love the most basic concept of, if you're not getting a degree in XYZ, why are taxpayers funding it? No, by the way, you're a taxpayer watching this, I'm talking to you. You're watching this podcast. Just a very honest, can you guys just flood the comment section? And if you do a super chat on this topic, I will read, I don't care what the dollar amount is. What would you say are jobs that if the government is funding to get a degree? Let's just say some of these folks that we're paying for. What positions would you be okay with? What type of degrees?

• 1:33:22Patrick Bet-David?

  What would you say, I'm okay with that? I'm okay with this. What would you for sure be against you funding? You're the taxpayer, what would you be against you funding? There's no way in the world I want to pay for that, what would it be? Think like a parent, your kids. If they say daddy, you have money, I want you to pay for my college tuition. What wouldn't you pay for? You'd be like, you're out of your flipping mind, I'm not paying for that, right? What would it be? Can you guys comment below? Rob, can you read off some of the stuff that people are saying? You know, okay, so engineering they pay for, trade schools. I'm seeing multiple trade school, trade, trade. By the way, Amir, trade school. Timbo, trade, trade, trade. Abraham Peters, he just gave a super chat, but not an answer.

• 1:34:06Patrick Bet-David?

  So trade school, social studies, not paying for that. Trade school, engineers, by the way, 50%, 30% of the answers here are trade. Engineering, okay? Fashion design, not paying for it. Plumbers, against all of it, against paying anybody.

• 1:34:22Speaker 05

  Can we remove political science from the list too?

• 1:34:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course, political science, I mean, why would you get that, right? Well, you know, Tom, what do you think about what Brandon is saying? Because I kind of agree with him. As a parent, I'm willing, you told your daughters, right? You had a certain things that you're not paying for college degrees. How come we're not doing that? That's very easy, common sense decision to make.

• 1:34:42Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I'm gonna add a word to the debate here. Underwriting. We were talking about insurance. I basically taught my daughters what the word underwriting meant. Underwriting is the process by which a life insurance or insurance will put a price on your policy based on risk. How old are you? Do you smoke? Have you had cancer? What kind of a car do you have? Is it in a garage? Underwriting is all around us, and I expose to them underwriting. I will in, I will cover your education and do things based on the usability and the value of the major. You don't have to go into venture capital or that that line like I did or something like that. You don't. But find something that matches your heart, but let's go find something that's applicable.

• 1:35:25Tom Ellsworth?

  And they completely understood it. I gave them facts and data. So I think we cause student loans. If they're gonna be independent student loans, go sign for your kid. Let your kid get whatever you want, but you co-sign for that loan the same way that you coincide for their first checking account when they were 16 years old. I had to do that for Bailey to get her the checking account, Pat. I had to stand good for a $500 Visa that's attached to her checking account. You know where I'm going?

• 1:35:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:52Tom Ellsworth?

  The government didn't help me.

• 1:35:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:54Tom Ellsworth?

  But if the government would say, well, look, if you want to co-sign for your kid to have gender studies at at Brown, and you want to co-sign on that, go to your bank and get whatever student loan for your kid and co-sign for it. But if you want the federal effing government to stand beside that, and then to put one of their, you know, horrifying loan processors, these predatory loan processors on student loans, then wait a minute, wait a minute. The underwriting standard for the United States would be this. Now, the second, I'm gonna give you another fact. $44 billion comes into the economy because foreign students by and large.

• 1:36:34Tom Ellsworth?

  Don't get loans. They come with money from those countries. Forty-four billion comes in because they pay the tuition, they pay for books, they pay for room and board, they pay for food, and once they pay for food, they pay for toilet paper. So they're here out in the United States spending forty-four billion dollars on that, and so they come back. Now, here's the next part I go to. You force the universities to use their endowments to subsidize everything from, you know, professor salaries to the tuition. The purpose of the endowment used to be that, "Hey, I want to give Pat a scholarship." Hey, Pat, you're trying to do that. And by the way,

• 1:37:18Tom Ellsworth?

  I talked to friends that did this. They're holding a letter from Stanford and a letter from USC. This is a real case study, and they're looking at who's going to give you the best financial aid because you're an exemplary student from Glendale. And they're looking at it and says, "You know what? I'm going to USC because I can get an engineering degree both places. I can get a business degree both places, but guess what? I get a little bit better deal from USC. I'm going." Guess where that came from? Their interest in their profits and their endowments.

• 1:37:44Patrick Bet-David?

  How much did you say, Tom? Forty-four billion?

• 1:37:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Forty-four billion comes into US economy in tuition and other spending from foreign students.

• 1:37:50Patrick Bet-David?

  So what do you do with that? You're the president. You're an advisor. Do you say no?

• 1:37:54Tom Ellsworth?

  If you say no, that means that that money doesn't come in, and so the schools are going to scream.

• 1:38:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Which would you rather have? The money coming in or the government financing a fine arts degree? Taxpayers paying for it?

• 1:38:06Tom Ellsworth?

  I step on the air hose at the federal government level.

• 1:38:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Which one of the two are you against more? Because there's an audience that's going to say, "I don't want neither."

• 1:38:13Tom Ellsworth?

  I would turn down the foreign student visas, not to zero. Some comes in, and then I would adjust what the US taxpayer is going to underwrite on those student loans, and I think you're going to get there.

• 1:38:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, let me read some of these super chats because I rarely ask for this. So, "Limit federal student loans to those technical skills and jobs that need, that this nation needs to grow. No student loans for gender studies." This is OFD 56. Okay, next one. Skills and STEM careers. This is Blake Castillo, okay? Next one, elevate to the unknown. Management and formation systems. Okay, next one. From Razor, uh, three, uh, I night. Fund technical engineers stem with a contingency of commitment, AKA they work for the government for two to four years. This also provides a return on investment and gives experience for private sector. Interesting. Uh, next, next one. Abraham, the answer to Ford is hiring

• 1:39:12Patrick Bet-David?

  from high school shop class as interns and train them up to master mechanics. Now, I don't know if that's, but I, I like the fact that you're seeing what everybody else is saying. Common sense. Why are we paying for this stuff? Doesn't make any sense to me that we're funding this stuff. I think you've got a very good point there. You're making Brandon.

• 1:39:28Speaker 05

  Thanks.

• 1:39:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff, I think you want to say something.

• 1:39:29Speaker 05

  No, I was gonna say that's not what government does. Government doesn't do common sense.

• 1:39:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, well, that's a good point. Let's go to the next one. Next one to me. I want to get into is Bitcoin. You hear a lot of people right now saying Bitcoin free fall. It's a, you know, this is it. This is horrible. Bitcoin price in free fall. Weeks after hitting all time high. Let me read this story to you. So we got almost exactly one year after rising to above 90,000 for the first time in its history. Bitcoin has fallen back to its level. Suffering a severe price crash. A record breaking rally took the cryptocurrency to an all time high above 125,000 dollars. Last month, with some market analysis fearing the student, the sudden drop could be a beginning of a a, a more sustained bear market. Bitcoin was trading on 93,000 dollars on Monday morning.

• 1:40:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Marking a 25% decrease over the last six weeks. Previous price cycles have seen Bitcoin lose around 75% of its value after hitting record high. Here's what Michael Saylor had to say about it. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:40:29Speaker 00

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• 1:41:31Speaker 06

  Last time our next guest was on CNBC, he was expecting Bitcoin to be $150,000 by the end of the year. Want to find out if he's changed his tune since late October, given the recent move in the crypto space. You're looking at Bitcoin right now at $94,632. Michael Saylor is here, strategy founder and executive chairman. Good morning to you. What do you think? 150 by the end of the year? What do you think's happening here?

• 1:41:56Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, I think we all want to go to the moon, but if you want to ride the rocket, you got to be prepared to pull the G's. Over five years, Bitcoin's had like six brutal drawdowns. If you roll the clock back 13 months, we were sitting around 68,000. And then after the Trump election, we had this incredible rally from 68 to 106,000 in five weeks. If you go back 14 months, we were about 55,000. And so if you'd said, we're going to go from 55,000 to 94,000 in 14 months, that would have exceeded any reasonable investor's expectations. Over five years, Bitcoin's up about 50% a year on average for the five years. Gold and S&P are studying

• 1:42:40Tom Ellsworth?

  the cost of capital at 14%. My company, Strategies, up 71%, equivalent to Nvidia. There's no other stock in the S&P that's done any better. So I think the volatility comes with the territory. If you're going to be a Bitcoin investor, you need a four-year time horizon and you need to be prepared to... Handle the volatility in this market.

• 1:43:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so what do you think? What do you think is going on right now with Bitcoin, Jeff?

• 1:43:10Speaker 05

  Okay, so I think it's a it's a barometer of short run risk taking. I think what he just said is absolutely true. If you're gonna buy Bitcoin.

• 1:43:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Four years?

• 1:43:17Speaker 05

  At least. I mean Bitcoin is a long term thing. It's not it's not a competing currency. It's a risk asset. It's a store of value. It's not gonna be replacing the dollar because we don't even use the dollar. So Bitcoin is simply just a barometer of people's short run risk taking. So the price decline now doesn't mean Bitcoin's gonna be wiped out or it's gonna go to zero. It just means that right now there's a lack of demand for risky assets in the marketplace, which I think we can we can use as a as a gauge for overall short run risk aversion about some of these other factors that have nothing really to do with Bitcoin. It's not really about Bitcoin here. It's about the market psychology.

• 1:43:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon, where are you at?

• 1:43:54Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, that makes sense that Bitcoin would be the first one to go, but I think it's like super dramatic that you're saying it's falling off a cliff and this and that. I mean, like, like he said in the video, like right before Trump got elected, it was in the 60s and just because Trump gets elected and they're expecting all kinds of favorable things for crypto. It shoots up to over 100,000 and that's been kind of baked into the market since Trump got elected, like the AI hype and the AI buzz and the that like the AI narrative is like really the story that's been carrying not just crypto, but the whole market like since Trump got elected. So I I think it's normal. I mean, I'm still, I mean, call me crazy. I'm still sketched out by Bitcoin because the creator's name means central intelligence. When you translate it to English, you'll never convince me that's not weird and we've never seen him before.

• 1:44:38Tom Ellsworth?

  But, uh, yeah, in terms of just looking at like a chart, I don't think it's like a concerning crazy thing. I think like there there's people just getting shaken out.

• 1:44:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, where are you at?

• 1:44:47Tom Ellsworth?

  So there where I'm at is I see two major things happen. First of all, all this macro, all the market uncertainty doesn't help. Specifically, if interest rates are going to be higher, then I can get higher rates on cash and I don't have to go to riskier things like Bitcoin to get my return. Higher rates means that those are less appealing. Well, now we're seeing 50 50 for just a 0.25 rate cut. And I'm now waving my flag for a 0.5 rate cut as. Many others are for December. I don't want to impact retire me fixed income. So the first thing is macro market uncertainty is out there made everybody nervous. Then what happened this week is I call it the liquidation dominoes. The liquidation dominoes, there is massive profit taking by the crypto proxies.

• 1:45:32Tom Ellsworth?

  And the crypto proxies are the companies like Michael Saylor, who basically have a product they're selling and they make profits. But basically they pile all this Bitcoin on their balance sheet. And so they're a crypto proxy. The crypto proxies took profits because where we are right now, I believe we are $10 under where we were on January 1st. Am I correct? On a full, on a year to date basis, I think it was right there, right? That we're back where we started. Did you enjoy 2025? You're back where you started. Well, then you have what also the leveraged positions. You know, investors that have a lot of cash may not have to do this. But investors with not a lot of cash, read all the Reddit things that says, hey,

• 1:46:13Tom Ellsworth?

  use 10 grand to buy Bitcoin and get another 5 grand of it because you can borrow against the 10 grand at 50%. You follow that? Yes. They're all over the red. You look at the Reddit logs and the Reddit chats. Oh, do it this way, do it this way. Well, guess what happens when the price comes down? You get auto traded. What's auto traded? You have a margin account. Hey, for your convenience, we automatically traded out because that asset was going down. Your margin was different than 50%, so we auto traded. And they happen. I heard that in the last two trading days, $917 million in Bitcoin was sold on liquidation auto trades. So guess what? There's the other domino.

• 1:46:56Tom Ellsworth?

  And then lastly, profit taking by the independent investors, where you saw the first part of this two weeks ago. When it started, people jumped out and said, well, I've made enough this year. And those are the part timers that aren't the long termers. So the short term sold out. You know, Auto Trades took away people that were under margin. Crypto proxies, you know, took some profit out. And then everybody doesn't like the fact that the interest rates aren't going to go down, which makes a risky currency like Bitcoin more valuable.

• 1:47:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. So, okay, again, I think the best thing I took away from everything with this, if you're going to get into Bitcoin, have a minimum of a four-year way of looking at it. If not, it's not worth it. Almost like buying a house. If you're buying a house for three months, it's a bad investment. If you're buying a house for 10 years, five, 10 years, you should be fine. So if you're buying a Bitcoin, look at it the same exact way as well. Not day trading like some of these guys are doing. Let's go to the next story. Next story is the following.

• 1:47:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Retirement age, okay? Most Americans think 63 is the perfect age to retire, but they're dead wrong. Here's the big number to bet on. You ready, folks? Earmuffs. If you're that age, 63 or higher, and you're thinking retirement, you're probably not going to like this story. So I want you to brace for impact on what number they're giving away here. It doesn't start with the number six. Okay, so let's go through it. According to 2024 Mass Mutual Retirement Happen-It Study, most Americans retirees, pre-retirees, consider 63 to be the ideal age for retirement, with an average retirement age of 62, which coincides with the earliest age for claiming social security benefits. Today's retirees are coming close to that mark,

• 1:48:38Patrick Bet-David?

  but future retirees may find it difficult to retire in their early 60s. More than a third of pre-retirees, 35%, report that their retirement savings are short of where they would need to be to completely retire on ideal age, according to Mass Mutual study. Meanwhile, 34% of pre-retirees believe that, A, there's a decent chance they would outlive their savings, with 22% of retirees sharing the same concern. Put simply, retiring 62 or 63 may be popular, but this may not be ideal when you consider all the factors. That are in place, your social security benefits would roughly be 30% lower for your retirement at 62 versus full retirement at 67, depending on where you were born, according

• 1:49:20Patrick Bet-David?

  to new social security administration. Another factor to consider is longevity. As of 2023, overall life expectancy in the US is 78 years old, according to Centers CDC. However, typical Americans' life expectancy can stretch into 80s and even 90s, depending on their gender, date of birth and state, according to the Yale School of Public Health. In other words, if you retire at 62, you may need to ensure that your nest egg is big enough to keep you afloat for up to three decades. When you consider all the data and eligibility, it may seem the ideal window for retirement may be around 67 years old. Okay, so what do you think about this, Jeff?

• 1:49:56Speaker 05

  You gotta work as long as you can. I mean, that's, it's a simple truth. I know, like you said, people don't want to hear that, but it's the actual truth. I mean, not only we're living longer, the cost of living longer continues to go up. I mean, healthcare prices continue to spiral. We haven't fixed those yet. So you gotta factor that in. You gotta, you gotta work as long as you can.

• 1:50:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, thoughts?

• 1:50:17Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm looking for a statistic here, Rob, maybe you can help me. I read that 30% of your lifetime medical costs will have happened in the last 18 months of your life. And so you need to be ready for that so that you're not wiped out prematurely, number one. Number two is, I, I look at a lot of people that I know, they want to work and they want to stay active. Now, do they want the same job they did? If they were a mechanic at Ford with the arthritis, can they continue to be a mechanic at Ford? No. Could they be a tutor or a teacher, part-time? Sure, they could. I know a lot of people that want to stay active. And you look at them, and I'm serious, I look around the people I know, they say, I'd like to keep doing something, but I'd like to keep doing something that I enjoy

• 1:51:01Tom Ellsworth?

  doing, and it's not walking up and down a floor at a beach with a metal detector. I really want to do something I enjoy, but I'm not going to work that much. But I want the social aspect of it, and I want to feel productive. People that talk about, also, I think there's a average lifespan for people that take permanent retirement and Actually do nothing, not even community service or volunteering. It's shocking that how much shorter the lifespan is versus the people that do something in terms of community service or keeping their their 30% of your lifetime medical hot hit in your final 18 months. Yep, there it is. So you better be ready for that so that number one, you can pay for it. What's a good way to do that?

• 1:51:42Tom Ellsworth?

  Get some basic benefits from a company that's willing to pay you part time and do something you really love doing and stay active.

• 1:51:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Makes sense. Brandon.

• 1:51:50Speaker 07

  Yeah. So remember we talked about that time that if you for 40 years, you make 60,000 a year. You you give 10% of that to the S and P every year. You end up with 2.3 million after 40 years. So that's one thing we've conditioned people to not save like that because of the stupid FDR social security stuff that like got people into the state of not having to save money. And like we just create this mindset of, okay, social security, 401k, you're going to be good. Don't worry about, but nobody's good for it. It's like, I think at 5 million is probably the number that you need to retire. If you retire at 70 to not be stressed out. But it's offensive to think that people will still want to retire in their 60s. Like, like that was the age in the in the 1930s. So, you know, I would make fun of anybody who tried to like say, make the case for retirement in their 60s.

• 1:52:35Patrick Bet-David?

  If you can do it and you chose to do it, it is what it is. If you set yourself up, you know, if you if you say, well, I'm going to retire whatever age I want, you know, listen, if that's what you want to do. What I've noticed is people retire early, they're typically miserable. Okay. And I'm not talking about everybody, the happiest people I know. My dad's one of the happiest people I met in my life. He's 83 years old. He's still working. Okay. And I have relatives that stopped working in their 40s. They're the most miserable miserable people I've met in my life ever because they stopped working. So it's not even about the money. And oh, my God, life is not all about work and life is not. It's not about that. It's about contributing. It's about constantly being seen as that person is needed.

• 1:53:18Patrick Bet-David?

  My dad till today is needed. We need him. You know what I'm saying? Like, we need him. There's a he, there is a value for the individual to say, this family needs me. That we need you to go pick up the. Kids, we need you to go drop off the kids. Man, I am still needed to exist and live and serve and give. We need this that that element of being there. But for some people like Rob ran a poll right now. If you look at the poll, it's interesting what it looks like. If you can pull this up, you know, what age do you plan on retiring? Look at this. Some people put before 60, 22%. Early 60s, 25%. Late 60s, 24%.

• 1:54:02Patrick Bet-David?

  70 plus, 29%. Our audience, 29% are planning on working to past 70. The people that want to work past 70, I want to have dinner with you. Okay, I want to meet you. I respect you. Everybody, like all of you guys that you're watching this. But the people that are 70 plus, uh, we should have dinner with all the people that are in there in the 70 plus category. And we should do it later on when we're 70 plus and everybody's got a job or a business. We sit down and talk to each other.

• 1:54:32Speaker 05

  Well, in my experience, one of the reasons why people, early retirees are, as you said, miserable, because a lot of them are, is because they continuously fret about having enough savings. They're always a slave to the market. Am I going to make enough in the stock market? Like you said, the idea that the government's going to cover you, that has been embedded in the national psyche and that needs to go away completely. But even those who realize that the government's not going to be there, they stick there. Is the market up today? Is it going to be up next week? Oh, my God, if the market goes down, what if we go into a recession? What am I going to do? That's why they're miserable. So if you work as long as you can and get the earned income or save, God forbid, what you actually need for retirement, that's where the happiness.

• 1:55:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so this next story, though, Jeff, is the number of households living paycheck to paycheck has risen. Why? This is a USA Today story.

• 1:55:17Speaker 05

  Labor recession.

• 1:55:19Patrick Bet-David?

  We're going to come back to it here. Why? Why is this happening, folks? So Rob, if you want to play this clip, go for it.

• 1:55:25Speaker 06

  New Bank of America analysis shows one in four US households is living paycheck to paycheck with almost nothing left after the basics. Researchers track spending on groceries, housing, gas, childcare and utilities. They found many families are using 95% of their income just to cover those necessities. The report highlights a K-shaped economy where higher income Americans are doing far better than those at the bottom. President Trump has dismissed affordability concerns as a con job pushed by Democrats.

• 1:55:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so before we get into those stats. Um, quick feedback to USA Today editor. Turn the music down. What was like, who, who, can you forward this to the editor of USA Today? Please, if you're watching this, why do you have the level so high? Lower it. And I like your taste for music because it was like they're trying to find that Blade. Remember Blade, the movie back in the day?

• 1:56:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Like the opening of the movie. Uh, I like the taste for music, but just lower the temperature a little bit on that Wesley Snipes. Uh, Tom, your thoughts on this?

• 1:56:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, this is kind of what we've talked about, uh, today. And so I, I won't be repetitive, but this is the statistics proving what we're saying is true. The Biden recession raised the price on things and right now people are 1.25 trillion in credit card debt. They're actually using for gasoline and, um, uh, uh, yeah, food. So that doesn't mean that they're using that paying it off at the end of the month. They're not. And so they've got some problems here. And this is why I was saying that I feel that if the president took immediate steps on energy. And what was the two things they talked about? Energy and groceries and take steps on those two things to help Americans with affordability. Because guess what?

• 1:57:14Tom Ellsworth?

  There are jobs coming. Is there a panacea coming? No, but there's just Toyota announcing a battery plant in what? Tennessee or something that's going to have 5100 jobs at that battery manufacturing plant. So in other words, jobs are coming, things are happening. But we have a gap between the, this is the time where we're, we're in the hospital bed and we're waiting to get better. And so there's a lot of things we have to do for, for Americans and this is what they are. The other side of it is, and I'm going to put this just as 10% of it. You know, you, you, there's an awful lot of consumption spending in the United States that the average consumer could pull back on.

• 1:57:56Tom Ellsworth?

  I mean, how many subscriptions do you need for, you know, uh, for, for, for cable and digital media? Do you need Netflix and Hulu and, and, and, and, and? You know, when you look at some of those things. You know, there's an opportunity for people to be a little bit more efficient with the dollar. And they'll say, no, no, no, no, no, because, you know, when I'm feeling down, I really need those things. But right now, we could do things for the American household, Pat. If we want to as a country, and Trump could start with a stroke of the pen. And then I think he should be waving this flag, is saying, this is what I inherited. This is now coming home to roost, but I'm the guy that's going to fix it. I'm gonna start today with some energy things and some food things, and I'm gonna help. But he is right.

• 1:58:41Tom Ellsworth?

  Every, about the media wants to take everything and turn it into affordability and beat the crap out of him with it. So the president is correct that the Democrats want to cause everything to be that, and to blame you for that. Oh, it was colder today in Nebraska. That's an affordability thing, that's the fault of President Trump, right? You know, missile found in Cuba footlocker. You know what? If American affordability had been different, that missile wouldn't be there. They can't play that frickin' game. And that's where the president has got really thin skin, and he should have. But right now, he's got the pen, he's got the pulpit, he's had really effective policies that he's put in. He's negotiating with people like the Saudis we saw. He's got the power, he's got decision momentum.

• 1:59:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Go after food and energy right now and show America what leadership is all about on affordability.

• 1:59:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff.

• 1:59:30Speaker 05

  Hey, Rob, can you pull up, go to St. Louis Fred. Real personal income excluding transfer receipts. This is an income stat. It's a broad income stat that shows you the aggregate level of private income in the economy.

• 1:59:43Tom Ellsworth?

  It's one of my favorite databases.

• 1:59:44Speaker 05

  Yeah. It's one of the few things the Fed actually does.

• 1:59:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Fred.

• 1:59:48Speaker 05

  Fred, yeah. St. Louis Fred, Fed Fred, and then real personal income excluding transfer receipts. So this is just private income, and it's adjusted for prices. There we go.

• 2:00:05Speaker 05

  So you got real disposable income and real personal income. And you notice, first of all, in 2008, that that series fell off and it never came back. We've been living in an economy for the last almost 20 years where you don't have enough income. And then you look at 2020, just after the spike in 2021 and 2022, it levels off again. So what I'm saying is, American income has been falling further and further behind. Further and further behind, and people know it. That's why they're all upset to voters. Voters are upset, that's why they're upset of politicians. They keep falling further and further and further behind. So the statistic that we were talking about here, was it one in four living paycheck to paycheck? I actually think it's higher than that. I think it's probably closer to a third.

• 2:00:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, let me tell you what's interesting, what you're saying, because, Rob, can you pull up the poll? Our audience, our audience is like, it's not like they're watching a show that socialism, that, you know, rich people are bad and capitalism's horrible. Our audience, polling, living paycheck to paycheck, zoom in, okay? 3,000 people voted, 59%.

• 2:01:13Speaker 05

  That's more like it. Again, it's not a, you know, labor market, whatever you want to call it, I don't want to, who cares what we call it? It's an economy that doesn't work. And I hate the term K-shaped economy, by the way, because every economy in existence is K-shaped. You go back to the Great Depression. Rich people are doing well in the Great Depression. An economy is doing well when there are few people in the bottom part of the K. That, the statistic we just went over for real personal income, shows that there are way too many people in the bottom part of the K. It's lack of income, lack of jobs, lack of labor market mobility and growth. That's why people are living paycheck to paycheck.

• 2:01:49Tom Ellsworth?

  And one of the drivers in 2008 was, shortly thereafter, was a dramatic change to the cost of healthcare in America driven by ACA.

• 2:01:58Speaker 05

  We all save money on health insurance. Did you get the message?

• 2:02:01Tom Ellsworth?

  And if you, if you, you like your doctor?

• 2:02:04Speaker 05

  No.

• 2:02:04Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, yeah, I kept, I didn't keep mine. You keep your doctor. But Pat, right there, if you go, if you could also look, and that wasn't the only thing, but it was a major impact on the American household, the truth about what happened to the cost of health insurance for everybody else except the 30 million people that supposedly got Obamacare and got benefits. And look, that, we never recovered from that. So we created the gap. You see how the lines stay together remarkably?

• 2:02:30Patrick Bet-David?

  It's getting wider, Tom.

• 2:02:32Tom Ellsworth?

  That's a concern. But now at the top.

• 2:02:34Patrick Bet-David?

  The last two years?

• 2:02:35Speaker 05

  This is why people are so upset about the 2008 bailout. Because that was a watershed moment because they think, well, bankers got bailed out. I've been falling further and further behind for 20 frigging years.

• 2:02:47Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't blame them.

• 2:02:48Speaker 05

  No, I don't either. I mean, you have to look at that. You have to look at that.

• 2:02:51Patrick Bet-David?

  You should have let some of those companies go. And this too big to fail concept.

• 2:02:56Speaker 05

  The idea was, and you, play a little bit of devil's advocate. The idea was if we bail out those firms, that wouldn't happen.

• 2:03:04Patrick Bet-David?

  But it did.

• 2:03:04Speaker 05

  But it did.

• 2:03:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:03:05Speaker 05

  And nobody's ever accounted for it.

• 2:03:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Who's the gentleman that we bring, the economist that we've had on a few times, Spencer?

• 2:03:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Richard Warner?

• 2:03:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Richard Warner, Richard Warner that we bring on, and he breaks this down. They call him the godfather of quantitative easing. I think that's the nickname that's been.

• 2:03:19Speaker 05

  Quantitative easing did work.

• 2:03:22Patrick Bet-David?

  It didn't.

• 2:03:22Speaker 05

  It did not work.

• 2:03:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Have you, have you guys done anything together or no, you and him?

• 2:03:26Speaker 05

  No.

• 2:03:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Never have. Yeah. Uh, Brandon, what do you have with this?

• 2:03:30Speaker 07

  Oh yeah, Trump's got to stop acting like inflation's gone because it's kind of like gaslighting everybody when you're saying something that's different than the reality. Like he's going to lose a lot of people if he keeps saying this. Like we would respect a plan of action if he came out and said like, okay, this is this way because of this. But to act like it doesn't exist, act like, no, the stock market's great. So the economy is great. And that's disregarding probably 80% of the population. So I don't know if he actually thinks that that's the case, what he's saying, or if he's trying to.

• 2:03:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, this is what they're saying. A year ago Thanksgiving to today. Classic holiday feast, down 3%. Dinner rolls, down 22%. National brand frozen vegetables, down 15%. Stuffing gravy mix, fresh cranberries, down 3 to 4%. National brand pumpkin pie, down 3%. Prepared mashed potatoes, down 1 and 1/2%. So they're sharing some of these numbers on what's going on. That groceries is down a year over year. That doesn't mean it's not lower, period. But they're giving a date on what's happened since Biden was in versus him.

• 2:04:32Speaker 07

  Well, have you ever seen the way that the government measures the CPI where if like one thing gets too expensive, they change the things in the basket so they can make the play with the number? Like, so I don't think the vast majority of our government data is. Complete BS. So when they give us a number, I don't trust it that much.

• 2:04:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I think CPI.

• 2:04:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Look at this here. Look at this here. Look at this here, Tom. Change from 2024, 16 pound, is that 16 pound? Frozen turkey is down 16.3 percent. I don't think that's pound though, Rob. Is that a?

• 2:05:01Tom Ellsworth?

  No, it is. It's a 14, 14 pound, I think is what they call a tom turkey. So 14 to 16 is like a 10 percent Thanksgiving.

• 2:05:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, got it. So down 16.3. 14 ounce cube stuffing mix down nine. Dinner roll, you saw the one. Three pounds sweet potatoes down 37 percent. One pound of veggie tray, carrots and celery down, up, so I'm sorry, up 37, up 63, up 17. Frozen peas, up a gallon of milk is up 16.3. That's big. And then miscellaneous ingredients down, canned pumpkin pie, about the same. Two frozen pie crusts down point eight. Half pint whipping cream, up 3.2. So some up, some down. But listen, if the, if the, if 60% of our audience is saying they're living a paycheck to paycheck. And by the way, by the way, for some of you guys that also said, can I challenge you a little bit? So 60% of you guys that said,

• 2:05:54Patrick Bet-David?

  are you also part of that camp that said you want to retire before 60?

• 2:05:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you also part of that camp that said you want to retire, you know, early 60s or late 60s? You think that mindset is serving you financially? Don't get me wrong. I understand what's going on with the economy. Totally get it. I understand what's going on with challenging things are, living paycheck to paycheck. But maybe we can also have an adjustment in our mindset. Not saying they don't need to do their things. But also for us to have real managing of expectations of what it's going to look like. The odds are, most of you watching this, if you're below 40, you're probably going to touch 90.

• 2:06:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, you're probably gonna touch ninety. Eighty-five, eighty-eight, eighty-seven. Life expectancy with the way things are gonna be, who knows where we're going. So, we need to be also managing expectations better with how things are moving forward. Let me do one other story here before we wrap up. Here's a story I'm gonna go to. Blue Owl, okay? Plunges to twenty-two, twenty-three low after blocking exit from fund. Okay, so let me read this to you. I know Jeff, you and Tom both have a lot to say about this. I'm gonna come to him, we'll wrap up the podcast with this here. So, Blue Owl Capital, Inc. Shares have fallen to their lows since twenty-twenty-three December after alternative asset manager restricted investors from redeeming capital from one of its oldest private credit funds.

• 2:07:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Shares dropped almost six percent on Monday, closing at thirteen point seven eight. The firm announced earlier this month that it would merge its one point eight billion dollar non-traded business development company, Blue Owl Capital Corporation, two with its seventeen point six billion dollar publicly listed vehicle, Blue Owl Capital Corp., or O B D C. But investors in non-traded fund won't be able to redeem their capital until the merger closes, which is expected to happen early next year. Investors in the acquired vehicle will swap their holdings for O B D C stock. That means they could see paper losses as much as twenty percent if the deal closes at current share price, given that O B D C shares are trading at much higher of a discount compared to the value of the fund business. Jeff, thoughts on the story?

• 2:08:03Speaker 05

  There is a growing problem in what's called private credit or shadow banking, whatever term you wanna talk, talk about it. It is potentially, it could, if it continues to go in this direction, it could turn into a financial crisis. And the reason is because a lot of this private credit, without getting into the, really the deep weeds here, it's just a source of relending in the economy. So you have these investment funds that borrow, they get seeded by wealthy investors, a lot of hedge funds, things like that. They borrow in wholesale markets like repo to leverage up the returns. And it's basically, these investment funds, these private credit shadow bank funds are blank balance sheets, they've been heavily involved, huge volumes over the last several years because the bank, regulated banks haven't been lending in risky sectors of the economy. So, private credit

• 2:08:45Speaker 05

  Funds have been absolutely banging the table on volume, volume, volume in credit growth without really paying a whole lot of attention to the fundamentals, to the underwriting. Underwriting has gone by the wayside here.

• 2:08:58Tom Ellsworth?

  There's that word again.

• 2:08:59Speaker 05

  Exactly, and it's a very important word. I mean, we see this in every credit cycle in human history. You know, greed takes a hold of everybody. You rationalize away the risk, all the kind of stuff of bubble, all the bubble behaviors that we associated in 2008, we're seeing it again here in 2025 in private credit. So what that could potentially lead, what's really happening is there's a lot of losses because there was a lot of dumb lending that took place over the last several years as they were voluming up and growing and whatnot. We don't know, because it's sort of in the shadows, we don't have a real idea of what those losses might actually end up being. And of course, that feeds into mistrust in the marketplace and it could, from there, potentially spill over into something bigger. So what we're trying to figure out is how many losses there are and who has them?

• 2:09:44Speaker 05

  And if there are enough of them, who is going to end up paying the bill? The problem with that process of a downside of a credit cycle is that it can spill over into the general marketplace where if there's not enough information, and believe me, there is not, then people just say, screw this, I want my money back. This is what happened in the earliest stages of the 2008 crisis. And I don't want to get, I mean, I'm not making a comparison to 2008 in any other way, then that's just the process it takes. What you had is you had a bunch of hedge fund investors that were earlier exposed to subprime mortgages and really subprime mortgages that looked a lot like this, securitized structures and whatnot. You had hedge fund investors that said, I don't know what's going on here. I'm not getting any answers from my fund managers. They're not telling me the truth. All I know is that there's fund guys over here that are losing tons of money.

• 2:10:29Speaker 05

  I don't want to be one of those. Give me my money back. So what you had was a bunch of hedge fund redemptions hit the marketplace, which then created a cascade of selling that became the 2008 crisis. So what we're seeing here with the blue owl story is the latest in a series of escalations moving in that same direction. It started with Tricolor, then it was First Brands, then it was, you know, a couple of small regional banks that were exposed to First Brands, and it was Primaland. Then we started getting notice from UBS. UBS said, we're shutting down a couple of our hedge funds. Why? They started getting hit with redemptions. And so this blue owl story is again the same thing. Hedge fund investors are saying, give me my money back. And these funds are not even, they're not even exposed to the bankruptcies that we see so

• 2:11:13Speaker 05

  far. And so what that potentially tells us is that the investors in these institutional spaces are getting cold feet about the entire space. And if that's the case, then you have what become, what started out as potentially a credit crisis starts to become a liquidity crisis.

• 2:11:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, exactly. And now for everybody that was listening to that, I'll give you an easy visual. In the movie The Big Short, you have the wealthy individual, I forget what his name was, comes in and sits down with Michael Burry and says, we want to take our money out. You can't do that right now. I'm freezing all withdrawals. He says, he says, Michael, you can't do this. I want my money back. I'm calling my attorney. Remember that whole interchange? That is exactly what we're talking about here. And Blue Owl was trying to merge things together. They were literally trying to build the Jenga that

• 2:12:10Tom Ellsworth?

  was built on the table in The Big Short where they talk about all this. Because they were trying to take Blue Owl 1 and Blue Owl 2, put them together so that they could have diversified risk. And they said, you can't do a redemption while we're putting this together. Well, then guess what? Then the merger broke. They couldn't get it together. They couldn't get all the approvals they needed, so it stopped. Meanwhile, we covered Tricolor last week on used cars. They found that the asset value of all the used cars that were out there was less than the value of the subprime auto loans here, which is why everybody was saying, oh, it's all subprime, subprime. But it's not. Now you have this

• 2:12:52Tom Ellsworth?

  happening. And by the way, US regulators have fired the first shot, and it's called HPS Partners. HPS Investment Partners, they're a private credit arm of a company called BlackRock. And they're responsible for running highly leveraged but high returns. So their charter, go find things that maybe might be untenable for other people, will be smarter. So they put 400 million back by receivables. The receivables of the company's appear to be fake future sales.

• 2:13:27Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 2:13:28Tom Ellsworth?

  So now, so now BlackRock's got HPS going, wait a minute, these guys lied to us, the telecom guys lied to us.

• 2:13:33Speaker 05

  They never checked.

• 2:13:34Tom Ellsworth?

  So now BlackRock is like, and BlackRock's saying, it's not us, it was a division of us at Arm's Links that we call HPS. Baloney! It was you!

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• 2:14:09Speaker 01

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• 2:14:38Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, it was HPS. You knew them, but you've deliberately set it up to keep some distance there. But now the federal investigators are coming in here going, hey,

• 2:14:49Tom Ellsworth?

  you 18-year-old college boys got beer in there? Are you having a party you shouldn't be? And so that's the knock at the door. So what we're seeing here is some things out there. When times get good too, too long, Pat, what happens? People get sloppy. You've talked about it, you've talked about it so many times. In, in the businesses that you've ran, that I've watched you, that I've sat next to you and watched you run them. When things get really good, sometimes that's when people get sloppy, or get a little careless, or cut corners. Ladies and gentlemen, your private capital market, and it's coming.

• 2:15:24Speaker 05

  Yeah, the problem is that the private capital market is huge. It's gotten to be really huge, so it actually can impact a lot more than just BlackRock.

• 2:15:30Tom Ellsworth?

  And why in 24 did BlackRock agree to acquire it? They wanted the return. So you guys have figured out European telco, and you've figured out how to get some of the bonds on the equipment building they have there, and you've done this? Yeah. I'll give you 12 billion for that whole stock. That's what they did. Now US investigators are going back going, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait! You're telling me some of this was fake receivables and sales that didn't exist? So BlackRock's gonna say, "I didn't know that."

• 2:15:54Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:15:54Tom Ellsworth?

  You were a bad underwriter.

• 2:15:55Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:15:56Tom Ellsworth?

  Where's your diligence?

• 2:15:57Speaker 05

  Nobody wanted to underwrite. Everybody wanted to do, it's bubble behavior. Everybody just wants to get the deal done.

• 2:16:01Tom Ellsworth?

  I want the 12 billion because I need the return.

• 2:16:03Speaker 05

  I don't care about the debt.

• 2:16:04Tom Ellsworth?

  And I ran the red light on diligence.

• 2:16:05Patrick Bet-David?

  We know personally, we know a company that is at that seven-year mark of having raised a ton of money. And those guys are coming saying, "Hey, we need that money back. We need that money back. We don't care how you get it. We need that money back." You've reached that moment here. Did you have any thoughts on this? I'm gonna go to the Tim Cook story. No, just quickly, I think we're like, it's crazy to me that nothing's happened in the last 15 years where there's been this like great growth and like the stock market and asset prices. So like, I'd be shocked if something didn't give eventually. So like, just like you said. Yeah, last one here is Tim Cook. I know this is one you wanted to talk about. Tim Cook may step down as Apple CEO as early as next year, says, reports. Uh, this is from Entrepreneur Magazine. Rob, is this him speaking or is this him?

• 2:16:45Tom Ellsworth?

  This is a Reuters report on the succession plan.

• 2:16:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, go for it. Go for it.

• 2:16:49Speaker 06

  Apple is stepping up its succession plans as it prepares for CEO Tim Cook to step down as soon as next year. That's according to a report in the Financial Times, which cited several people familiar with discussions. The report said that John Turnus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, is widely seen as Cook's most likely successor. Apple insiders were quoted as saying the company's board and senior executives had recently intensified plans for Cook to hand over the reins after more than 14 years at the helm. The report also said that Apple is unlikely to name a new CEO before its next earnings report in late January, which covers the critical holiday period.

• 2:17:34Speaker 06

  Cook became CEO in 2011 after Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs resigned, ending his reign at the tech giant he co-founded in 1976 in his parents' garage.

• 2:17:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon, thoughts? Yeah, so I guess you could take the approach with us of, uh, Apple wouldn't be what it is.

• 2:17:53Speaker 07

  Say without Tim Cook, but also you could take the approach of saying that Tim Cook was just like this conservative guy who inherited the creations that Steve Jobs already created and played it safe. And maybe, you know, was the right fit at the right time where he just did the conservative things instead of the overly aggressive things and. They blossomed into like the four trillion dollar company because of the conservative nature of him, but also people are criticizing Apple for not being innovative enough and. Not doing anything with AI, not creating a lot of new products over the last couple of years. So. I think it's kind of like a debate between those two things. Like I wonder what would have happened if Steve Jobs like had not died and wasn't CEO from like. Like until today instead of Tim Cook, maybe Apple wouldn't be the same. Maybe he'd be much bigger, but I don't know. I think that's something interesting to consider.

• 2:18:37Speaker 07

  I don't think it'll be like, I think it's probably time for him to step down and it could be a good thing because they're they're kind of a point where they haven't done anything.

• 2:18:44Patrick Bet-David?

  That's the criticism. The criticism right there, what you said, what is the new product? So. Versus if Steve was there, maybe they would have new products. To me, I'm 50 50. I think. Sometimes crisis happens. And nobody expected him to, you know, when he got his cancer, he started doing his walks and everybody's wondering who are you going to get? And he brought the finance guy on. Bit of a guy that's the safer guy and he came in and he did a decent job. He took it from. Where was that? And right there, if you look at it from October 15th, 2011, which is when Steve Jobs died. To today, uh, actually think, was it October 11th when he died? October 5th, 2011? Yeah. When he died to today, 2,280% return.

• 2:19:25Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 2:19:26Patrick Bet-David?

  And you know what I did? I ran 14 years prior to that to see how that compares against Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs was at. The previous 18, 14 years, he had a rate of return of 8,600. So he 86 X the business. Where, you know, Tim Cook 23 X, but that makes sense. The company was newer. The company was. You know, had newer announcements that was being made. A lot of the products was made under Jobs. So you would expect that uptick, but Tom, where are you at with this here?

• 2:19:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Um, so a couple of things. Uh, first of all, I think he did a good job making a very nimble, profitable, driving Apple. But the succession plan that they needed, they needed five years ago, and it's the product succession plan. It's to diversify that. Um, I'll give you a very interesting stat here.

• 2:20:13Tom Ellsworth?

  At its peak, Apple had 18%, you know, global phone market share. Because remember, once you get outside the United States, Android's everywhere.

• 2:20:20Patrick Bet-David?

  That's right.

• 2:20:22Tom Ellsworth?

  And now, it's 17%. Now, the smartphone marketplace is bigger. So the 17% is of a bigger pie. However, the pie is now looking to slowly shrink for two reasons. One, most everybody has a phone. Phone penetration isn't going to be the magic push. Get one for mom, get one for your kid. We've played that game, right? In Europe, in the United States, and in developed Asia, which is, you know, Korea and Japan. All of that's there. However, the other part of it is, they're making phones too good. People are not replacing their phones the way Apple wants experience. So people are keeping phones longer.

• 2:21:05Tom Ellsworth?

  And if the economy's not so good, and the phone's working just fine, you don't replace it here in the US. And so, they need a new, they need more product, they need more push. And I think the next CEO is gonna have to inherit an Apple that, just like under Tim Cook, needs to kind of find its way forward.

• 2:21:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff?

• 2:21:28Speaker 05

  I think what you said exactly right. I mean, there's, the criticism is, that, why didn't Apple reinvent itself to a certain extent 10 years ago? Were they just happy, just, you know, the business that they had built, the jobs had built, and just managing the mature lifecycle of the business? And why weren't they pioneering new, new fields in technology?

• 2:21:45Patrick Bet-David?

  And did you see who's replacing Tim, though? The VP of Product, right? The SVP of Product.

• 2:21:51Speaker 05

  Did they get the message a little bit too, like, to your point? Did they get it a little bit too late?

• 2:21:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. But guess what? Listen, they're making a move. We're gonna learn, this guy here, you're gonna hear a lot of his name if this guy ends up replacing him because he's reporting to Tim Cook. So he's been hardware engineer since 2021. We'll see, we'll see what's gonna happen. University of Penn guy, what else do we know about him? He began his career as a mechanical engineer designing virtual reality, et cetera, virtual resource systems. Joined Apple in '01 as a member of the product design team, working first on Apple Cinema Display. In 2013, he was appointed Vice President of Hardware Engineer under Dan Riccio. And he overseed the product of AirPods, Mac, and iPad. All right. I mean, it sounds like a qualified guy for them, but we'll see what happens. Having said that, folks, we are at the end of the podcast.

• 2:22:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff Snider, really enjoyed having you on. Jeff's got a YouTube channel as well called the Euro Dollar University. If you haven't yet subscribed, Rob, can we put the link below for them to go follow? Jeff, it was great having you on, man.

• 2:22:53Speaker 05

  My pleasure. This was awesome.

• 2:22:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, really enjoyed having you on. Take care, everybody. God bless. Bye bye, bye bye.

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• 2:23:30Patrick Bet-David?

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