Why China is Rearing For a Bull Run & The Largest Jobs Revision Ever

Ed is joined by Alice Han, China economist and director at Greenmantle, to break down what’s been happening with China in the past week. Then, Ed dives into why the jobs market may be even weaker than we thought and why the reporting from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has gotten worse. Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth" out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• 1:29Ed Elson?

  Today's number, 82. That's how many years late a book was returned to the San Antonio Public Library last week. When asked what took so long, the returner said she was, quote, "checked out."

• 1:45Speaker 05

  Money markets, Matt. If money is evil, then that building is hell.

• 1:55Ed Elson?

  An awful joke to start the show. Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is September 10th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. All three major indices closed at record highs. That's the first time since December 2024. They have all achieved that milestone on the same day. Treasury yields also climbed from their lows ahead of key inflation data. The producer price index will be out today and the consumer price index will come out on Thursday. Apple stock fell one and a half percent after a lackluster debut event for the iPhone 17. And finally, Oracle stock popped more than 20% to a record high on stronger than expected cloud growth projections.

• 2:40Ed Elson?

  Okay, what else is happening? It's been a huge week for China and a new world order is coming into view. We've seen the country look beyond the US for growth in August. China's exports to the US declined 33%, while those to Africa grew 26%. This shift extends to cars too. BYD's European sales increased more than 200% in July and it's aiming to have 1,000 stores on the continent by year end. But it's not just business. China is also flexing its military muscle last week. Of course, it staged a massive military parade with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in attendance. And on the diplomatic front, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit drew more than 20

• 3:23Ed Elson?

  non-Western leaders, including India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his first visit in seven years. We have been covering these developments a lot lately on the program, but there is so much to unpack here, so much to get into. So we wanted to check in with someone who has actually been on the ground in China recently. So let's bring in our favorite China economist, Alice Han, to take us through what's happening. Alice, great to have you on the show again.

• 3:50Alice Han?

  Thanks, Ed. Happy to be back. A little bit jet lagged, but happy to be back and tell you what I saw in China the last few weeks.

• 3:57Ed Elson?

  We're very excited. And by the way, I just want to say, welcome to the Prof G Media family. For those of you who don't know, Alice recently launched a China-focused podcast with Prof G. And you can check out that pilot episode on the Prof G Pod. We can discuss that later, but first. Alice, Scott and I discussed this military parade on Monday's episode with Vladimir Putin in attendance, Kim Jong-un, they all walked down the red carpet together. You were in China leading up to that. Can you just tell us a little bit about what you saw and what you think this military parade really means for China?

• 4:37Alice Han?

  Thanks very much, Ed. I was actually in Beijing during the week of the parade and left just as the parade was happening. What struck me was the optics of it. It was very clear that China was trying to strike two notes. One, to deter the US on any issue related to military affairs, including Taiwan. They were pulling out the big guns, metaphorically and literally. We had hypersonic missiles, high-grade equipment, drones. China was clearly showing the US and the rest of the world that it was ready for business and that it shouldn't be meddled with. Number two, I think it was very important, not just that Putin, and as you mentioned, Kim Jong-un of Russia and North Korea were there, you had a good

• 5:18Alice Han?

  showing of Southeast Asian leaders. And I think this was an important follow-up from what was happening at SCO, as you mentioned, Ed, in Tianjin, in the sense that China wanted to show that it had many friends that it could rely on, on trade and national security-related issues. I think it was important that you had a big showing of some of these Southeast Asian leaders, including leaders from Indonesia, to again, show the rest of the world, including Washington, that China wasn't alone, and that it was actually increasing its diplomatic clout within the region and globally. I think those were the two important notes that they were striking. And last but not least, I would say on the domestic front, we shouldn't

• 5:58Alice Han?

  discount that this was again, showing muscle domestically and stirring nationalistic feeling. I think it was important to note, and I don't think this was covered in the Western media, that it was strongly encouraged by all Chinese companies, not just the SOEs, but government organs. It was strongly encouraged within even private organizations that employees would take time off from work to watch the parade. Again, a sign of nationalistic pride that the party and Beijing is trying to stoke.

• 6:27Ed Elson?

  To what extent was this new behaviour? I mean, we know that they've done these military parades before. We know that there's a lot of nationalistic pride in China and they they try to celebrate their heritage as much as possible. But from my understanding, this combined with the summit and all of the leaders that we saw there was a little bit more of a message, at least in terms of their connections and their alliances with other nations. I mean, what part of this was new compared to previous celebrations?

• 7:01Alice Han?

  I think on two levels, this was quite novel. Number one is just the sheer scale of it, the fact that you had this military parade where you had a sheer enormity of high-grade military equipment on display. The performances by the male and female military officials as well as army, I think that that representation on a symbolic and visual level was quite new. And number two, to your point, Ed, is the fact that they were able to bring these world leaders, strong showing from Southeast Asia, but the fact that you had the first multilateral

• 7:39Alice Han?

  meeting of Russia, North Korea and China in one domain and at a Chinese military parade, I think was pretty novel. It's worth also mentioning that this is the first time we've seen a North Korean leader come to China for a military parade, I think, since the late 40s. So in many, many respects, just from the sheer scale, as well as the bringing together of these high-level officials, I think China was doing something quite new and it was clearly doing this to, I think, again, project strength in advance of potentially future meetings between Trump and Xi.

• 8:14Ed Elson?

  Just shifting to markets, did any of this have any impact that we saw in terms of markets in China? Did this, I know the Hang Seng is doing very well right now, but I'm only looking at it on a year-to-date basis. What kind of impact did this have on the markets?

• 8:32Alice Han?

  I would say it's a story of correlation, not causation. What struck me when I was in Beijing was the fact that virtually nobody was talking about tariffs. I was there in April, just after Liberation Day, and all the subject was revolving around tariffs. Everyone was talking about tariffs. This time around, they were talking about China's, quote-unquote, "quiet bull market" or even "slow bull market". There was a feeling that the government Since the beginning of the year has been allowing households to basically get more involved in the stock market and is trying to signal the right pro-private sector, pro-market messages to domestic investors and foreign investors.

• 9:13Alice Han?

  So we've seen a degree of Chinese household bank deposits being shifted into the stock market, versus seeing more increased willingness on the part of foreign and domestic investors to get involved in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as well as the mainland Stock Exchange. So in the end of August, we saw the stock rally on both the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Stock Exchange going up thirty percent year-to-date rather. And I think that that has been a sign that people are trying to do two things. Number one, they're seeing China as being quite resilient to tariffs, in fact shrugging off some of the tariff risk, and we've seen that in the export data. And number two, China as being a hedge against some of the risks they see in the US.

• 9:57Alice Han?

  And even on top of that, I would say, as another bet on AI, I think what has been become apparent is that it's a two-player field. Chinese valuations are extremely low compared to the Mag Seven. And so for anyone looking to bet on AI future, China seems to be still a lucrative, interesting space. And that's why we've seen a lot of the growth being driven by companies like Alibaba that are at the forefront of the AI revolution in China.

• 10:21Ed Elson?

  Yeah, we talk a lot about country risk, specifically with China, there is just this risk of it's a communist nation and, you know, there's no guarantees that the CEO of a company isn't going to be disappeared from one moment to the next. And that is generally translated into lower multiples for all Chinese stocks. But as you say, up thirty percent on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is, by the way, best performing index of the year so far, up thirty percent, and you compare that to the S and P, which is up eleven percent year-to-date. I'm wondering, has the China risk

• 11:03Ed Elson?

  Conversation changed. Is there a reason why we're seeing higher multiples? Is that what is happening in terms of valuations right now?

• 11:11Alice Han?

  I completely agree, Ed. I would also caveat, though, that Chinese valuations were at all time low last year.

• 11:18Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 11:18Alice Han?

  So we're recovering from, I think, a considerable degree of weakness in Chinese stocks. And number two, to your point that you're referencing, what struck me is that the US is becoming what China was, I would say, in the 2020s. When you had investors concerned about the centralization of power, a great degree of policy uncertainty coming from the center government. And that's mainly driven by, I would say, top-down dynamics where a leader is cracking down or injecting a great degree of policy uncertainty. And that has basically taken investors aback. I think we're seeing a lot of the pathologies and patterns that we saw in China in 2020 in the US.

• 12:00Alice Han?

  And that's, I think, pushing on the margin investors to look at China more fondly. And it's helped by the fact that Xi Jinping in Beijing have made a concerted effort, I would say, since last September to, again, try to rev up private sector, to rev up the markets. Because structurally, and this is worth mentioning, Ed, even though I think cyclically we're entering a better cycle, we're entering improvement, structurally, a lot of these problems still remain, whether it's local government debt overhang, whether it's underconsumption, overexposure to exports. I think a lot of these structural issues remain in play, but we've just seen an increased improvement in sentiment

• 12:41Alice Han?

  from the consumers and on the margin, the private sector. And that's largely been driven by, I think, a top-down loosening.

• 12:49Ed Elson?

  Chinese yuan also just hit a 10-month high against the dollar. I'm wondering, what is driving the strength of China's currency right now?

• 12:58Alice Han?

  Fundamentally, this is a dollar weakness story, but it's also a story in which the PBOC is, I think, not intervening to devalue the currency. I think that has been driven by two things. Number one, it is the US-China relationship. I think they are attentive to the fact that Trump wants a weak dollar and that if Chinese currency weakens too much, this is going to derail ongoing US-China negotiations and trade talks. And number two, I think China is mindful of beg your neighbor policies. It is mindful of the fact that as the dollar weakens, if China weakens its currency against some of the other trade-weighted currencies, say the euro, for instance, or even the yen,

• 13:41Alice Han?

  this could create another wave of trade tensions and backlash from some other countries in a period in which China can't afford to have more trade tensions. It remains ever yet more exposed to exports. And if the deficit between China and the US, the US rather deficit with China has to decrease, which is what Trump wants. China needs to find alternative markets in the medium to long term. So I think that fundamentally, we're in a stronger CNY period. And it wouldn't surprise me that if China decided to come to Trump at the end of the year with some kind of new Plaza Accord light in which there is an agreement that CNY remains elevated against the USD,

• 14:25Alice Han?

  that could be something on the table.

• 14:27Ed Elson?

  Yeah. One of the things you mentioned there in terms of just this massive run-up that we've seen in Chinese stocks is AI. On that point, China just released their AI plus plan. And I'm just, some of the statistics from this, from this plan. The plan is for 70% of the country to have adopted AI-powered devices and agents by 2027. And by 2030, they want that to be 90%. So my takeaway is they really are leaning heavily into AI. I just wanted to get your read on the AI plan for China. Are those numbers realistic? And what is their plan to achieve this?

• 15:12Alice Han?

  Well, what struck me, Ed, on this trip was that everything was about AI. There was a great deal of optimism after DeepSeek domestically about China's AI capabilities. When I look at the previous, I think, two to three years, there was a degree of skepticism about whether or not China could catch up with the US. You know, US was at the forefront of these frontier labs. On the quest to AGI, that rhetoric has shifted because China feels more confident about its hardware capabilities on the semiconductor front and because China feels as though there has been a real wind in the sails after DeepSeek in terms of investment

• 15:55Alice Han?

  in AI, in terms of government attention to AI, and in terms of even foreign interest in China's AI ecosystem. So I think right now they're betting on AI powering everything. I heard from multiple contacts in the business and even policy communities in China that AI was going to be what electricity was in the previous industrial revolution. And this is going to power basically every sector of the economy. It's even going to power governance. So governments are using ever increasingly AI systems and applications. For instance, DeepSeek is working, I was hearing, working closely with local governments and even central governments and using their AI algorithms and LLMs to power public governance.

• 16:39Alice Han?

  This is going to be the most important issue in the next five-year plan that will be announced in October. And I fully believe that AI is going to be at the forefront of China's economic system moving forward. It's a top-down, bottom-up, I think, approach to the economy. It's going to have benefits, but it's going to have massive drawbacks. What was apparent to me was the fact that policymakers are extremely, extremely optimistic and positive about AI, I would say especially the very, very top. And to some of my sources in the policy advisory community in China, there's a lot of apprehension about the impact of automation on jobs. The labor market is still looking pretty weak.

• 17:24Alice Han?

  Youth unemployment is increasing. There's a risk at which we have to note that automation and AI systems will actually structurally create more unemployment moving forward. But that's something that I don't think policymakers are caring about that much because everything is about how great AI is and how it will transform everything.

• 17:46Ed Elson?

  Yeah. If I could sort of summarize my takeaway from this conversation and from what we've been discussing, I mean, from the display of strength and unity with all of those eastern nations and those Southeast Asian nations that we saw at the parade and also at the summit, the alliance with the Prime Minister of India, the trade partnerships that are forming. I mean, for a long time, it felt like the Belt and Road Initiative was a big problem that everyone was worried about, and then it wasn't really working anymore, but it appears to be picking up some steam again. The massive run-up that

• 18:26Ed Elson?

  we've seen in the markets, all tech stocks in China massively running up right now, the huge emphasis on AI, the strengthening of the currency against the dollar. In sum, China is back, is my read on it. It's been a few years where people said, you know, the Chinese system wasn't really working, you had all of these structural issues, you had these real estate problems, you had the issues with the labor market, but my sense is 2025, China is kind of coming back. I'm wondering if you think that is the right characterization?

• 19:01Alice Han?

  I think it is, Ed. I would caveat, though, that a lot of those structural issues that you mentioned, the real estate debt demographics, which we haven't talked about, they are still very much entrenched in the system and have not changed. I think the real change is the fact that people can't afford not to invest in China.

• 19:21Ed Elson?

  Right.

• 19:22Alice Han?

  China is a big, is going to be a big incubator and applicator for AI. It continues to be ever more efficient when it comes to exports. We haven't mentioned this, but what struck me was the fact that in China, a lot of the rhetoric is about involution or anti-involusion. Basically, another form of Chinese overcapacity that is pushing down cost and effectively meaning that Chinese goods get ever cheaper, both in the domestic and foreign markets. So China is becoming even more efficient as an export machine. And that has implications, obviously globally, but it means that China at a

• 20:04Alice Han?

  private sector level still remains extremely, extremely, I would say, important. And I think that investors feel as though the real top down sentiment has shifted. Xi Jinping and the leadership is understanding of the importance of the private sector and financial markets. And I think that that release in the political risk has been really important for, since last September, for foreign investors especially, to come back in, albeit, I would say, slowly. And I think, last but not least, again, I think that the government is attentive to the fact that households need a place to build wealth. They're not going to do it in the real estate sector because they're unwilling to amp

• 20:48Alice Han?

  that up again. Where else can they look? And I think that in the short term, they're looking rather than boosting wages, for instance, they're looking at the stock market as an answer to this. So I foresee upside. I don't say a huge bull run, but I would say, again, as mentioned previously, a quiet or a slow bull is well and truly baked in the cake.

• 21:10Ed Elson?

  Alice Han is a China economist and director at Greenmantle. Alice, your first official episode of the new podcast, I believe it airs next Tuesday, is that right?

• 21:20Alice Han?

  Correct, with James King, very much excited to join the discourse. A lot of exciting things, as we mentioned on this call, that are happening in China.

• 21:29Ed Elson?

  Very, very exciting. You can check that out on the Prof G Pod. Alice, always very insightful. We really appreciate your time.

• 21:37Alice Han?

  Thanks so much, Ed. Take care.

• 21:41Ed Elson?

  After the break, a look at the latest revision from the BLS. If you're enjoying the show so far, give Prof G Markets a follow.

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• 23:27Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. The job market may be even weaker than we thought. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that between March 2024 and March 2025, the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. The original number was 1.8 million. Put another way, that means the economy created only half as many jobs as we once thought. Now, to be clear, these backward looking revisions are standard practice at the BLS. After the initial data is reported, more data comes out, specifically unemployment tax records, which they then sift through and then they go back and they revise the initial

• 24:11Ed Elson?

  number. So that is standard here. The part that isn't standard is how big the revision was. In fact, this was the largest revision to the jobs numbers of all time. Now, as expected, we have seen fierce political responses on both sides. Remember, this revision is covering mostly Biden's presidency, but also a couple of months of Trump's presidency. But overall, it makes Biden's numbers look not so great. So on the left, you have people saying that these revision numbers are made up, they're lying, the BLS is lying to make

• 24:53Ed Elson?

  Biden's final months look bad. And then on the right, you have people saying that the original numbers are lying. The BLS was lying about the economy before, and now they have to go back and revise those numbers to the real number. Now, I want to be clear. These revisions and the size of these revisions are a problem, and they are part of a growing trend. We are increasingly seeing larger and larger revisions to the jobs numbers. In fact, this time last year, we saw what was the largest revision to the jobs numbers in over a decade. That is a problem. If you can't trust the data when it comes out, if the data is swinging wildly up and down six months later, that basically means your

• 25:38Ed Elson?

  data isn't very good. That's an issue. But to look at that data, to look at that revision, and to immediately default to the BLS is lying, as the president has done countless times, not only is that a lazy reaction, it's also a stupid reaction. It actually doesn't make any sense.

• 26:00Ed Elson?

  First off, just think it through logically. If the BLS wanted to lie about the jobs numbers, it would make no sense to lie on the original number and then go back and tell the truth on the revised number. If you wanted to lie about the job numbers, you would just lie on both numbers. You'd lie on the original number and you would lie on the revised number. You'd lie about all of it. So this notion that they are lying and then going back and telling the truth, it's completely ridiculous. It doesn't even make rational sense. And that is also why firing the BLS chief on accusations of lying is so stupid. Now, having said that,

• 26:45Ed Elson?

  how do we explain why these revisions are getting so big? How do we account for the fact that the reporting from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has clearly gotten worse? Well, there is a boring answer. Two statistics explain all of this. The first statistic. Since COVID, the response rate to the BLS's current employment statistics survey, that is the survey with which they calculate all of this data. The response rate to that survey has fallen nearly 20%. In other words, right now, the BLS is working with a fifth less information than they used to. That's the first statistic.

• 27:27Ed Elson?

  Statistic number two, and arguably the most important one. Over the past two decades, the BLS's budget has fallen more than 20%. In other words, while the economy has gotten larger, more dynamic and more complex, the agency tasked with measuring that economy has seen its resources dry up. In fact, since the mid 2000s, the BLS's workforce has shrunk by nearly a fifth. So that means you've got fewer people making calls, fewer people upgrading the methodology and upgrading the technology, fewer people following up with the businesses that don't respond to those surveys. Put another way,

• 28:11Ed Elson?

  the reason the BLS's data is getting worse isn't because they're lying, it's because they don't have the resources. They don't have the money and the staffing and the technology to do their job properly. It's the same reason why any other organization would underperform.

• 28:31Ed Elson?

  Now, here's the kicker. The president has made his opinion very clear. He thinks the Bureau of Labor Statistics is lying. And so what is his solution to that problem? Well, number one, fire the commissioner. We saw that. But more importantly, number two, cut funding even more. Yes, the 2026 budget is going to cut BLS funding by an additional $56 million, and it's going to reduce the workforce by an additional 8%.

• 29:05Ed Elson?

  That is his fix for the agency that is already resource constrained and already struggling to do its job. It's not lying, it's struggling. And this is a playbook we have seen over and over again, and we are seeing it once more. You accuse an American institution of corruption or some form of mismanagement. You then cut their funding and you take their resources. You watch them struggle and you wait for them to inevitably make some sort of mistake. And once they do, you pounce on them for political reasons. You accuse them of corruption again, and you cut their funding again.

• 29:49Ed Elson?

  Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. And keep doing that enough times. And eventually you're left with an institution that is so deprived of resources, so bereft of any power, any authority, that you can simply take it over and assume the power yourself. Coincidentally, what is next on the president's BLS agenda? Well, he is installing a guy named EJ Antoni as its chief. Who is EJ Antoni? Well, this is someone who has said publicly that the election was stolen from Trump. This is someone who has made violent threats against people who stood in Trump's way. This is someone who called the BLS a random number generator.

• 30:34Ed Elson?

  As our friend, Professor Justin Wolf has put it, EJ Antoni as BLS commissioner would be, quote, disastrously terrible.

• 30:44Ed Elson?

  Why? Because he has, quote, "demonstrated no commitment to truth." That is the guy who is gonna turn the BLS around. So this is how the playbook goes. And we're watching it play out in real time with the nation's top statistical agency. And the worst part about all of this, it's all going according to plan. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Paxton and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Shalane, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O'Donoghue and Mia Silverio. And our technical director is Drew Burrows.

• 31:27Ed Elson?

  Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow.

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