#1535 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | Why Bitcoin Bull Market Is Just Beginning!

Polina Pompliano, Author of ‘Hidden Genius’ and Founder of The Profile, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss bitcoin, the economy, why gold continues to surge, why the bears are wrong, and why asset prices are going higher.=======================Today’s episode is brought to you by Consensus. Consensus, crypto’s longest-running and most influential event, is coming to Toronto this May 14-16, 2025. Curated by CoinDesk, Consensus will welcome 20,000 builders, investors, policymakers, and pioneers shaping the future of the digital economy. From understanding Bitcoin’s potential amid regulatory shifts to exploring the latest innovations in digital assets and infrastructure, Consensus is your best bet to unlock market-moving intel, make meaningful connections and get business done. You can’t afford to miss it. As a listener of The Pomp, get smarter and get 15% off registration with the code POMP. Register now at go.coindesk.com/pomp=======================Reed Smith is a dynamic international law firm dedicated to helping clients move their businesses forward. With an inclusive culture and innovative mindset, Reed Smith delivers smarter, more creative legal services that drive better outcomes for their clients. Their deep industry knowledge, long-standing relationships and collaborative structure make them the go-to partner for complex disputes, transactions, and regulatory matters. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com=======================The future is being built today and the future of currency isn’t dollars, euros, pounds, or yen, it’s crypto. And Gemini thinks that’s a great thing. Because a future where money is decentralized, inclusive, and globally accessible, that’s a future that we are anxious to be a part of. Go where dollars won’t. With Gemini. =======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on guys? We got a great episode for you today. It is with Polina Pompliano. She is the founder and CEO of The Profile. She's also got a great book called Hidden Genius that I highly suggest that you go check out. In this conversation, we have a blast today. I lay out exactly how I'm thinking about the economy, what's going on with Bitcoin's

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

  price, why gold continues to surge, and I stick it to the bears. I tell you exactly why they're wrong, why they're gonna look dumb into the future. And then of course, I go ahead and I give you a little bit of optimism to inject into your veins and realize why asset prices, they're gonna go back up and all the bears, they're gonna go back into hibernation and they're gonna be crying. And then of course, we end up with a little debate as to whether 36 is the new 21. I'll let you guys get to the end and figure out what I mean by that. Here's my latest conversation with Paulina Pompliano.

• 1:16Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 1:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Today's episode is brought to you by Consensus. They're the world's longest-running and most influential gathering of the global crypto, blockchain, and AI communities. Curated by CoinDesk, this prestigious annual event happens in Toronto, Canada on May 14 through the 16th, and it is set to welcome 20,000 builders, investors, policymakers, and pioneers shaping the future of the decentralized digital economy. From understanding Bitcoin's potential in a shifting regulatory landscape to the latest innovations in the digital assets and infrastructure, Consensus is your best bet to Unlock market-moving intel, make meaningful connections and get business done. You can't afford to miss it. And because you listen to this podcast and you watch this show, you get 15% off registration if you use the code POMP15.

• 2:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Go to coin desk pomp.com. Again, that's coin desk pomp.com to register now. Once again, go to C O I N D E S K P O M P dot com and use code POMP15 for 15% off your consensus Toronto tickets today. Today's episode is brought to you by Reed Smith. Their practice of law has the power to drive progress, to move businesses forward and support them in achieving their goals. By seizing opportunities and overcoming obstacles, Reed Smith is focused on outcomes. I personally use them as my law firm and I think that they are fantastic. They know that your time is valuable and that your matters are important. Their deep industry knowledge, longstanding relationships and collaborative structure make them the go-to partner for complex disputes, transactions and regulatory matters.

• 3:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Reed Smith delivers purposeful, highly engaged client service that drives progress for your business. Go to reedsmith.com to learn more about the best lawyers in the game. Reed smith.com. Go check them out today. Today's episode is brought to you by Gemini. The future is being built today and the future of currency isn't dollars, euros, pounds or yen, it's crypto. And Gemini thinks that's a great thing because of future where money is decentralized, inclusive and globally accessible. That's a future that we are anxious to be a part of. Gemini teamed up with futurists, technologists and designers like award-winning artist Matt Griffin, known for his illustrations for Dune, to craft a vision of the future with crypto at its core. The creative theme,

• 3:46Anthony Pompliano?

  "Go Where Dollars Won't," emphasizes exploration, growth and the crypto market's limitless potential. Whether it's going on that Martian safari to capture an unforgettable photo of a herd of woolly mammoths grazing the red planet, or using Bitcoin to pay for your lift pass to go strata skiing down the mountain peak of a breathtaking comet. Whatever adventures we'll be living, one thing is for sure. In a future this fantastic, the limits of traditional currencies simply cannot keep up. Financial innovation will usher in this new frontier. And so, go where dollars won't with Gemini. Go check them out at gemini.com/go-were-dollars-won't. Again, go check it out at gemini.com/go-were-dollars-won't.

• 4:30Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, Plina, what's first topic?

• 4:31Speaker 02

  As of this morning, Bitcoin's price is at $90,000. So that's some good news. What do we think?

• 4:37Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, I think that Bitcoin is a big winner from global uncertainty, and there's lots of uncertainty. But actually, maybe the bigger story is that the US dollar index has actually been falling. It's down about 9% to start the year. That is the worst start in history. And if you go and you take a look as to why the dollar index would be falling, things like political instability, foreign confidence in the United States, disagreement over American economic policies, trade policy decisions like tariffs, et cetera, all drive the dollar down. And that's exactly what's been happening. And so for weeks now, we've seen this occur. And so if you have the dollar index falling, that means that the dollar is getting weaker relative to other currencies. Now, people usually think of the dollar in comparison to other fiat currencies.

• 5:20Anthony Pompliano?

  But naturally, if the dollar is falling, Bitcoin is another type of currency. And so therefore, you're seeing Bitcoin strengthen against that dollar. The price is going up because it's denominated in dollars. Now, on top of just kind of the market structural things of what is the asset that it's denominated in, you also have plenty of people around the world who have been saying to themselves, "Well, there's uncertainty, and I want to de-dollarize. I want to get away from the US dollar, the US system, and so I want to hedge." They're going to buy gold or they're going to buy Bitcoin. So Bitcoin tends to be the second asset that's bought because there are really big pools of capital. They're not used to buying Bitcoin, so they go and they buy gold. But Bitcoin, I think, now will start to kind of run here over the next couple of weeks. And what you can see is if you overlay gold and Bitcoin, usually as gold price runs,

• 6:05Anthony Pompliano?

  about 100 days later, Bitcoin's price then runs. And in terms of volatility, what you'll see is you'll see gold go up. It's had a great start to the year, about 30% year to date. Banner year last year for gold as well. But now Bitcoin will be very volatile to the upside. And I think that Bitcoin will outperform gold this year. And so it's just kind of a patient waiting game for people. But remember, when Bitcoin was at $76,000, $77,000, everyone was all scared. Now, back to 90, there's a little bit of enthusiasm in the market. But 109,000 was actually the highest Bitcoin. So we're down still.

• 6:38Speaker 02

  What was that?

• 6:39Anthony Pompliano?

  Hundred nine thousand, I think. And so as Bitcoin kind of creeps itself back up there, next thing you know Bitcoin will be ninety-three, ninety-four, ninety-five thousand dollars. And people will be saying to themselves like, what's going on here? But remember Bitcoin was only sixty-nine thousand dollars at the start of November last year. So we've gone from sixty-nine thousand to right now ninety thousand. There's lots of volatility, it's gone up, it's gone down, all this stuff. But Bitcoin still continues to go up over long periods of time. Uh, and I recently shared, uh, in the, uh, the letter I write every day, uh, the four year, the two hundred week moving average. Uh, there's this guy who, who posted it online and it, it's just up and to the right. And sure, there, it kind of smooths and stuff, but it never goes down. So over four year time period, basically, we continue to see Bitcoin appreciate in price.

• 7:22Anthony Pompliano?

  And it just comes back to the idea that if you are a short term oriented person, you're going to see lots of volatility, you're going to try to buy and sell, and you're probably going to be bad at it. But if you simply buy an asset and hold it for a long period of time, it goes up over a long, uh, period of time. And therefore it continues to perform well. Uh, and I like Bitcoin, you know, well into the future.

• 7:40Speaker 02

  Yeah. So let's talk about gold. It's hit an all time high of thirty-five hundred dollars this week. Even though there's so much uncertainty, or maybe because there is so much uncertainty. Uh, gold has risen over thirty-one percent so far this year. It, the, the asset has been one of the big winners as Trump advances his global tariff agenda.

• 8:00Anthony Pompliano?

  Hey, gold bugs, congratulations. I salute you. That's the way to work. Look, they, they understand the economy, right? You know, people give Peter Schiff a hard time all the time. Peter Schiff understands the US economy better than most people, right?

• 8:13Speaker 02

  It would make sense that gold goes up when things are uncertain. I mean,

• 8:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course, because it's, uh, listen, sound money principles are it's outside the system and no one can create more of it. And so, uh, what gold has done is it benefits from times of uncertainty, from global instability. Uh, it also benefits from de-dollarization and it benefits from the US, uh, debt exploding and us printing money and devaluing currencies. Well, that's every country around the world is going through this. And so gold has actually done very well. I think actually gold is outperforming stocks over various timeframes. And so most people would say, well, I don't want to buy gold because it's a non-productive asset. But if you actually look at it, The single most important entire trend of the last, I don't know, 20 years has just been they're going to devalue the currency.

• 8:57Anthony Pompliano?

  And so if you got that right, you made money, right? You're picking individual stocks, doing all stuff like all that was just optimizations on a miniature scale. The number one thing you had to get right was be an investor and then get into assets that were going to benefit from the devaluation of the currency. And so golden Bitcoin, big, big winners. Now, gold is being bought. And the reason why it runs first is because the smartest money in the world, the central banks, the sovereign wealth funds, the really, really big pools of capital. They are not, one, approved in many cases, two, have the muscle memory of buying Bitcoin. And three, they still are run by a lot of the most influential and powerful people in their organizations are older. So they're not comfortable with Bitcoin. So what do they do? They go buy gold, which is the analog sound money solution.

• 9:41Anthony Pompliano?

  And when they go and they buy gold, gold is not finite, but it is very scarce and therefore it pushes the price up. And so we've seen that price appreciation and gold bugs. Again, congratulations. You've done a fantastic job. I think that they understand exactly what that tailwind is. I then go and I say, but the individuals, the financial institutions, now public companies, they're all starting to buy Bitcoin. And so depending on who you are and what was already in your portfolio, I think should really determine how you look out at the world in the future. So me in my mid 30s, well, maybe getting to the higher 30s, but mid 30s. I hope that I have 30 or 40 years, right? And so 30 or 40 year time horizon, I think that Bitcoin will drastically outperform gold.

• 10:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Because what I think is going to happen is there's going to be a bunch of boomers who own gold, who are eventually going to transition their wealth to their kids. Those kids are going to be much more into Bitcoin than they are gold. Doesn't mean that gold's going to do bad. I actually think gold will continue to do very well because you have the central banks buying it and all the stuff. But I do think that the more volatile of the two assets is going to be Bitcoin. And so Bitcoin will outperform. And so for me personally, I don't own any gold. I own Bitcoin. Now, the reason why I don't own any gold is because I'm playing the same exact thing. I'm playing the sound money thesis. I just want to do it with the thing that is much more volatile and the thing that probably has. More asymmetry to it. And so Bitcoin is my solution. But think about it, if you are, you know, a lovingly term, a boomer. Uh, and you're sitting there and you're saying, you know what? Maybe I'm retired or maybe I'm close to retirement.

• 11:10Anthony Pompliano?

  I actually don't want something that can go down 80%.

• 11:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 11:14Anthony Pompliano?

  And so I'm willing to give up the downside in order to, or I'm sorry, I'm willing to give up the upside in order to preserve the downside. The odds that gold goes down 20, 30, 40% is very low. But also the odds that gold goes up 200% in a year is also very low. And so it's just, what is your risk appetite? What is your volatility? Young people want the volatility. They embrace volatility. Older people, because of their life situation, it's very unlikely that they're going to do that.

• 11:40Speaker 02

  Do you think that by the time millennials are at retirement age, Bitcoin will be at the same type of place where like the upside isn't as attractive? Or it's not, it's just not as volatile an asset?

• 11:53Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, it depends on what your, uh, world outlook is, what your skill set is, uh, what your return profile looks like. I could make the argument right now that a lot of friends that I have who are very good investors and really capture asymmetry. Bitcoin's return of 50 to 70% annual compounding return is actually not as attractive as it used to be when it was 150%. Right? Now, a lot of people say that's crazy. What do you mean that 50 or 70% is, uh, not attractive? Well, the same way that the older generation, again, this is generalization. I know a lot of older guys who are super into Bitcoin, right? That they, uh, think, you know, I think we recently heard somebody use the term youthful, right?

• 12:33Anthony Pompliano?

  They're youthful in their way that they think. Um, but the older generation generally uses the S and P 500 as their index. The younger generation generally uses Bitcoin as their, uh, index or their benchmark. And so what people are saying to themselves is, can I get a better return? Right? We have, uh, started companies. Those companies have drastically outperformed the performance of Bitcoin, right? We're taking something that doesn't exist and we're creating it out of thin air. It's a very asymmetric activity when you're successful in doing that. Doesn't mean though, that all of a sudden I'm going to go pick a stock that outperforms Bitcoin. And so I think it really just comes down to, okay, right now, the group of people who Think that the Bitcoin return is not as attractive as what they can do elsewhere is really small. Over time, that number is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger.

• 13:17Anthony Pompliano?

  And so what you're going to see is that as Bitcoin's volatility comes down, which has been happening over the last decade, there will be certain thresholds where people say, hey, this is my savings account, but I'm going to go try to generate more of a return somewhere else. What is that number? I don't know. But there's not very many people, I would argue, that can beat the S and P every year. And the S and P is only call it eight to 12%. So Bitcoin's got pretty far runway here to be able to go and say, I'm going to be able to outperform anything else you can do. And I think that's why you're going to see it continue to be a magnet of capital, is because people are saying, you know, I repeat this pretty much on a daily basis at this point. If you can't beat it, you gotta buy it. And if you can't beat Bitcoin's return, you gotta buy it. And there are almost no institutions anywhere in the world that can

• 14:02Anthony Pompliano?

  consistently beat a 70% compound annual growth rate. And so naturally, you're going to see more and more of these organizations buy Bitcoin. Gold's still a great option, but I do think that as young people ascend to the positions of power and influence inside these big organizations, they are going to convince their organizations to buy Bitcoin. Doesn't mean they'll sell gold, doesn't mean they won't buy more gold, just means that Bitcoin is going to go from zero allocation to some percent. You get a lot of organizations that do that because price should rip higher.

• 14:29Speaker 02

  Okay. Um, let's talk about the Fed. Will Jerome Powell budge and finally lower rates? Apparently Donald Trump went on a truth, you know, rampage, calling out

• 14:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Rampage? Is that your word?

• 14:45Speaker 02

  That's what it says. Calling out Jerome. And he said that preemptive cuts were being called for by many, now that the economy was facing what he described as virtually no inflation. Without the cuts, Trump said the economy risks slowing, quote, unless Mr. Too late, a major loser lowers interest rates, all caps now. According to Trueflation, inflation is sitting at 1.4%. Is Powell potentially harming the economy by refusing to cut rates?

• 15:18Anthony Pompliano?

  What I've been telling all you. I've been saying this for weeks now. I was saying this months ago, and people don't want to listen to me. I can only do the best I can. I can just look at the data. I could tell you what I see. And I told you that the entire risk was not high inflation. It was deflation. And we were going to see inflation continue to crash, that we needed to cut interest rates. I'm yelling from the rooftop. I tweet like once every two or three days. Cut rates now. Inflation is crashing. It was at over 3% in December, according to Trueflation. It now is at 1.4%. That is a 50-plus percent drop in inflation. We must cut rates. On top of that, how many times do I have to say tariffs are not inflationary?

• 16:02Anthony Pompliano?

  They're deflationary. Why? Yes, the price of a good goes up, not, it does not go up the same rate as the tariff. So if you put a 20% tariff on China, which we did in 2018, the average price went up 4%. Didn't go up 20%, went up 4%. Because there's multiple stops in the supply chain that eat some of that cost. And so the consumer saw a 4% increase in those products. But why did inflation not show up? We get a lot of stuff from China. Because when you put the tariffs there, it's a consumption tax. If you tax something, you get less of it. And so naturally, people start consuming less of that type of good. And so they either shift their preference to domestically manufactured things,

• 16:45Anthony Pompliano?

  or they stop spending as much as they were previously. And so you're seeing the economic slowdown. The risk is actually the economic slowdown. It is not inflation, no matter what they say. All the economists agree tariffs are inflationary. Be scared of high inflation. Go read the headlines. These people are dumb and they're wrong. And how do I know that? Because I went and I did the work and I've looked at all the other tariff situations. Every country in the world that's got high tariffs, why don't they have high inflation? Because tariffs are not inflationary. And so now you have the administration saying the exact same thing. Cut interest rates because you're behind the curve. And so how is it that I knew that inflation was going to come down so hard in the last reading?

• 17:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Because I was looking at the real-time alternative metrics. And so same thing now is we're going to continue to see inflation come down. And if they do not cut rates, they keep rates where they are. We have inflation slowing and the economy is slowing, then you risk going into a recession. So what do you have to do? How do we get the soft landing here? You have to cut rates. We don't need a lot of rate cuts. We need one or two of them through the summer. On top of that, we need a couple of trade deals done. And they don't have to be big trade deals. We just got to get momentum. Get one or two done. Show that they're fair deals. Market says, okay, they're working. These guys are getting deals done. I'm getting a little bit more exuberant. We need a tax cut to go from, okay, you're going to see a slight rise in some prices of goods. You need to put more money in people's pockets,

• 18:15Anthony Pompliano?

  and then you need to start deregulating. And so if you can do all of that, which is very complex, very difficult to do, but if you can get one or two rate cuts, get a little bit of good news, if you can go ahead and get a tax cut, and you can deregulate, what you're going to see is this economy is going to take off, and you're going to see an economic boom. And so I continue to tell people, study reflexivity. The faster something falls, the harder it's going to rip back in the other direction. Remember COVID. It fell, there was a liquidity crisis, we went down, bam, we hit it with stimulus, we cut interest rates, we printed money, and we ripped back to all time highs by before the end of the year. I think there's a very good chance that that happens again, but we need to get a couple of these things done to see that happen. And so let me say it one more time

• 18:58Anthony Pompliano?

  for all the people who aren't listening. Tariffs are not inflationary, they're deflationary. You're not at risk of high inflation, you're actually at risk of an economic slowdown. You need to cut rates. It's called stimulus. You want to stimulate economic activity. If people are slowing down, stimulate. Give them the injection that they want. Cut the interest rate, put cheaper capital into the market. On top of that, we need to get a tax cut done, and we need to get deregulation, and a little bit of good news, get one or two trade deals done. If we do that, we're going to be singing in the summertime, good times are rolling. But that's not what they're saying right now. The bears, they're out, they're out of hibernation. The bears, they were asleep for a long time. They're back,

• 19:40Anthony Pompliano?

  though. They got their little honeypots, and they got their porridge, and they're running around screeching. They think that they're winning.

• 19:49Anthony Pompliano?

  But there's one thing I know in history, don't bet against the United States, don't bet against our entrepreneurs, don't bet against our economy, and don't bet against our American spirit. The bears are gonna be losers, and the bears are gonna be wrong. And there's a long line of history that shows the bears, over a long enough time period, always look dumb. Always. All those short sellers that used to think that they were smart, they've all scattered like cockroaches when the light gets turned on, because they realize being pessimistic in a market that is engineered to go up and to the right over the long run means that you're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. And so, we are going to

• 20:29Anthony Pompliano?

  see good times, gotta get a couple things done, but everyone's screeching right now. I keep saying it, you're gonna look stupid, because when we get to the other side of this thing, all of a sudden, everyone's gonna say, if you're so smart, why didn't you make more money? Because guess who's screeching right now? It's all the people who were long, and they have sit there and watched their portfolios go down in value. So if you're so smart, then why did you lose money? Because guess what's gonna happen? The people who are gonna end up benefiting from this-

• 21:01Speaker 02

  Finger wagons out, you know-

• 21:02Anthony Pompliano?

  The people who are gonna end up benefiting from this are the people who control their emotions, they hold an asset, and they just live their lives. And guess what's gonna happen? We're gonna come out of it, prices are gonna be higher in the future, the bears that are all worried about all this nonsense, they're the dummies who see their portfolio go down 10, 15, 20%, and they sell. Because they think it's gonna go down another 10, 15, 20%. And usually, right about now, we're down about 20%, right about now, usually is when we bottom, and we go the other direction. So there's a lot of data that shows, we may have bottomed, I don't know, I'm not gonna call a bottom. But there's a lot of data that suggests we may have bottomed, and whether we did or didn't, it's not gonna matter. I

• 21:47Anthony Pompliano?

  still think that there's a very high odds that we get a new all-time high in Bitcoin price before the end of the year, new all-time high in stock prices before the end of the year. I could be wrong-

• 21:56Speaker 02

  Big predictions here today?

• 21:58Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, wouldn't be the first time that I was right or wrong.

• 22:05Anthony Pompliano?

  I've done both. I'm multifaceted. You know, some people, they're ambidextrous. You know what that is?

• 22:11Speaker 02

  Ambidextrous, but yes.

• 22:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, you know, left and right, right and wrong. I can do both. What do you want?

• 22:16Speaker 02

  Oh, I know.

• 22:17Anthony Pompliano?

  Imagine being married to me. Go ahead.

• 22:21Speaker 02

  By the way, are we just gonna ignore the fact that our three-year-old daughter called you Goldilocks yesterday?

• 22:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, that's why I was thinking about the porridge and the honey pot, you know?

• 22:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, definitely not a bear. Um, well.

• 22:32Anthony Pompliano?

  That's what the economy is right now. Not too hot, not too cold, just right.

• 22:37Speaker 02

  Okay, Goldie. Okay, so I hear what you're saying, but the data tells a different story.

• 22:45Anthony Pompliano?

  No, it doesn't. Go ahead.

• 22:46Speaker 02

  The Dow Jones is on track for its worst April since 1932. The S and P 500 has fallen more than 1.5% for the sixth time this month. The most number of days since June 2022, when it also fell 1.5% six times. Trump's approval rating on the economy has now dropped to the lowest of his presidential career. Forty-three percent approve of Trump's handling of the economy and 55% disapprove. The first time a CNBC survey has shown that he has a net negative on the economy. Will he continue his liberation day policy or will he be forced to change course?

• 23:21Anthony Pompliano?

  First of all, all that data you just showed me is positive, not negative. Here's why. When the stock market goes down, you should be excited. It means that you're entering at a lower price. You get to buy the same companies today.

• 23:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, but if you already bought in, it ain't looking so hot.

• 23:37Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course, but guess what? Every great investor knows, keep buying. You keep dollar cost averaging in, but you have the opportunity today to buy the same companies at a lower price than you could three months ago. That's a gift.

• 23:51Speaker 02

  That's what I tell you when the clothes are on sale and you don't buy it.

• 23:54Anthony Pompliano?

  That's consumption.

• 23:56Speaker 02

  I'm helping the economy. I'm stimulating the.

• 23:58Anthony Pompliano?

  But. If you think about on the same situation, if you go and you take a look at the short term pain, there's real pain in the economy, right? I don't want to downplay the the pain that some people are feeling. But why is inflation coming down? Because you're seeing things like energy prices come down. Right? You're seeing gas, I think, is at like a four year low. You're seeing food prices start to come down. Everyone talks about eggs, right? Which is this huge thing, but eggs is only one piece of it. There's other things that are also coming down in price. What you're seeing is a lot of deflationary forces in the economy. This isn't just a financial market story. We are literally, we had millions of people running across our borders

• 24:44Anthony Pompliano?

  as if the border didn't exist. We've stopped that. All of a sudden now, what you're doing is you're cutting off net new labor into a market. And so naturally, what you're doing is it's a deflationary force. Technology, things like artificial intelligence, robotics, etc. It's all a deflationary force, which is a bigger argument the Fed should be cutting. But also, people get worried about, oh, I'm feeling economic pain in my portfolio. But there are also benefits to some of this happening. Now, I'm not arguing that we should only go after the benefits and not pay attention to the downside, right? There's obvious downsides to this stuff. But what we are going to see is that there's going to be choppiness. You're going to have this, the market came down, right?

• 25:29Anthony Pompliano?

  And now what people are starting to say to themselves is when things are going down, they think that they're going to go down forever. Same thing that happens when more things are going up. Remember 2021? Q4 2021? Everyone thought they were a genius, thought they were getting rich. Things don't go up like that forever without any volatility. Things don't go down in a straight line without volatility as well. And so it comes back to the idea, are you a young person with a 30, 40 year time horizon? Or are you an older person with a couple of year time horizon? Depending on which bucket you're in, and most of the people who watch and listen to this, you're a young person. You got a gift from the financial gods. They gave you a lower entry price into the same companies that you could have bought. You can go buy the S and P 500. Today than you could three months ago. You're welcome.

• 26:13Anthony Pompliano?

  Now that doesn't mean that the economic policies are all net good or net bad, right? There's plenty of things that I disagree with some of the economic policies with the way they've been rolled out, all that kind of stuff. But overall, I think that you're getting a reset. And probably the single most important thing that's happening is you're shifting from a public sector dominated economy. Where all or a very big portion of the job growth was coming from the public sector. You were getting things like, here's the data point that I saw this still, this haunts me in my dreams right now. Ready? 12% of the private sector workforce in New York City. Is people who stay at home to care for a loved one. Now the two things that I immediately get from that.

• 26:58Anthony Pompliano?

  The government is paying these people. That's not a private sector job. That's basically a public sector job. It's a government funded job. So 12% of the previously private sector jobs or actually public sector jobs mislabeled. So the public sector is even bigger than we previously thought. So we need to shift more to a private sector economy. The second thing is, we went from 20,000 people doing this a couple of years ago to 675,000 people doing this. They changed the rules, the eligibility. Do you think there's fraud going on? Do you think people are manipulating the rules? Stop it. Stop it. 12% of all private jobs in New York City are people staying home with a loved one.

• 27:43Anthony Pompliano?

  And I get the argument. If you put them in some sort of managed care, it's a higher price point than what the government pays for people to do that at home. Right? So I'm sympathetic to a well intentioned thing. But you're telling me we went from 20,000 to 675,000 and 12% of all private sector jobs are people staying at home? Stop it.

• 28:05Speaker 02

  I don't know about this.

• 28:06Anthony Pompliano?

  And so here, but here's where you come back to this is you say to yourself again. We have a complex system and so we're trying to get rid of this government spending. We shouldn't take that program from 675,000 people to zero. I think that would be wrong, right? I don't think the extreme of go to zero. But my guess is that there's some number between zero and 675,000. That's the right number and that would mean less government spending. If we have less government spending, there's less likelihood that we need to print money, that our debt continues to explode, that we have this kind of debasement of the currency. And so you look at this whole situation and you start to realize the economic policies that are getting put in place, short term are hurting people's portfolio.

• 28:51Anthony Pompliano?

  But it's resetting the economy and by resetting the economy, what you're trying to do is build a stronger base so that we can go and be off to the races. And so I think that people are very short term oriented. They look at their portfolio, which if there's red, it don't feel good. I don't like looking at red, but I think that I've got more confidence of I ain't selling stuff as they, as it goes down unless I'm a forced seller. If I gotta pay taxes, I gotta sell something, fine. If I gotta make a big purchase, something, fine, I'll sell. But I'm not selling because the price is going down. I want to be trying to buy things.

• 29:25Speaker 02

  Just really quickly, while you were talking about this, a tweet popped up out of nowhere. It's a quote by Warren Buffett at his conference and he said, "You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock to have it go down 50% or more. If you can't handle it psychologically, then you really shouldn't own stocks because you're going to buy and sell them at the wrong time."

• 29:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course. So what ultimately comes back to is this idea of, are you a gambler or are you a holder? You know the Kenny Rogers song, gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them? Right now, there's a lot of people folding, but they got good hands. They're getting bluffed out of their positions by the market. Right? They're saying themselves, my, my stock portfolio went down 20%. I don't like, I'm selling. I don't want to watch it go down another 10, 20%.

• 30:21Anthony Pompliano?

  But the odds are we go ahead the other direction at some point this year. I still think we're going to get all time highs. I could be wrong, but let's see what happens.

• 30:31Speaker 02

  Okay. And just, just for those who paid attention earlier, I'm going to address the elephant in the room. Anthony may be in his late, approaching his late 30s, but I'm, I'm still very much in my early 30s. Just for anybody wondering out there, I know, I know the people.

• 30:49Speaker 02

  How'd you tell them? I can't have them thinking I'm over here approaching 40.

• 30:55Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, you're closer to 40 today than any day ever in your life.

• 30:58Speaker 02

  No, I'm closer to 30.

• 31:00Anthony Pompliano?

  No, you're closer to 40 than any day you've ever been in your entire life.

• 31:03Speaker 02

  I mean, I'm closer to a hundred in that case.

• 31:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. How's that make you feel?

• 31:06Speaker 02

  Fine.

• 31:08Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. What's, what's the other topic?

• 31:10Speaker 02

  No, that's all we got.

• 31:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Oh, that's it. All right. 36 is the new 21, ladies and gentlemen.

• 31:16Speaker 02

  Wait, I thought you were 37.

• 31:18Anthony Pompliano?

  Man, see, she don't even.

• 31:18Speaker 02

  No, you're going to be 30, you're going to be 37 in June.

• 31:22Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm 36.

• 31:24Speaker 02

  Okay. He's 30.

• 31:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Young, athletic.

• 31:28Speaker 02

  Oh, well, yesterday I didn't, I didn't know how.

• 31:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Mentally agile.

• 31:32Speaker 02

  I didn't know how old he was. So yesterday.

• 31:34Anthony Pompliano?

  They pick up a couple IQ points.

• 31:36Speaker 02

  I gave you a compliment. I was like, oh, what? Anthony's 35 and now today only to realize I'm two years old.

• 31:43Anthony Pompliano?

  I know, I know plenty of people that would say, I look 28. All right. That's it for today.

• 31:50Speaker 02

  You're 16.

• 31:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Mentally, I'm 16. Athletically, I'm 45. Biologically 36. We'll see you guys next time.