#1028 Bitcoin Just Experienced It’s Worst Quarter In A Decade - BTC On-Chain

Today's episode is my weekly Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics update. I go through the Blockware Newsletter and various other metrics to help you understand the state of Bitcoin today during this difficult time in the market. To see the video with the corresponding charts referenced throughout the interview, go to my Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel ======================= The number one name in NFT domains and the world’s most powerful wallet are teaming up to bring something new to the crypto and Web3 world: That’s right, Unstoppable Domains and Blockchain.com partnered to create NFT domain names ending in . Blockchain. It’s the perfect ending to show that you’re a believer in a decentralized future. The Blockchain.com community can get one, for free by siging up for the waitlist here. Free NFT domains provide all the benefits of premium Unstoppable Domains, including fee-free, lifelong ownership. Don’t have a Blockchain.com wallet? No worries, these new domains are available to everyone for as low as $5. Either sign up for a free blockchain.wallet or visit http://UnstoppableDomains.com to buy your domain today. ======================= Exodus is leading the world out of the traditional financial system by building beautiful and user-friendly blockchain products. With its focus on design and user experience, Exodus has become one of the most popular and loved cryptocurrency apps. It’s supported on both desktop and mobile, allowing you to sync your wallet across multiple devices so you can have access to your funds anywhere. You can instantly exchange around 100 different cryptocurrencies straight from your wallet. Interactive charts let you view an asset’s price history and your portfolio’s performance over time. And maybe the best part, Exodus is integrated with the Trezor hardware wallet - making advanced security easy for everyone. Visit exodus.com/pomp for your free download or search Exodus on the App Store or Playstore. =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. In this episode, I break down the past week in Bitcoin, including on-chain metrics, various tweets that I find interesting, and any other information that I think will help you get up to speed on what's actually occurring in real time. I really enjoy these episodes, and I hope that you guys enjoy them as well. Before I get into this episode, though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.us is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors. There are no fixed minimum fees, no ACH transaction fees,

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

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• 1:29Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:46Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs pump investments all views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of pump investments you should not treat any opinion expressed by pump or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his personal opinion this podcast is for informational purposes only

• 3:10Anthony Pompliano?

  The Bitcoin market had another wild week there's contagion everywhere the price keeps dipping down below $20,000 and everyone's asking what the hell is going on with the decentralized digital currency well in this week's update hopefully we'll clear up all those answers all right let's get into it and start looking out at Bitcoin first what we can see here is that Bitcoin trading just above $19,000 right now then we can go ahead and take a look at the actual network itself and what we see there is that the market cap is now trading well below $400 billion we know that the inflation rate is only at 1.76% which is in deep contrast to the US dollar inflation rate somewhere around eight and a half percent the supply of Bitcoin issued into the circulating supplies stands at 90%

• 3:52Anthony Pompliano?

  and of course real exchange volume is at $5.46 billion over the last 24 hours we know that miners their revenue has been dropping drastically they're only being paid about $17.7 million in the last 24 hours to continue to secure the most powerful computer network in the world GBTC premium has actually flipped to a discount and has been widening at an aggressive rate and now sits at minus 36% to NAV and of course Bitcoin down about 72%

• 4:20Anthony Pompliano?

  From its previous all time high back in November. Then we can go ahead and we can take a look at price comparison between Bitcoin, gold and the S and P 500. Bitcoin down 43% from just one year ago. Gold sitting at plus 1% and the S and P 500 down 13%. But over any other timeline between two years and 10 years Bitcoin has drastically outperformed these other assets. Then we can take a look here and see the closing history of Bitcoin. 557 days out of all of Bitcoin's life, it's actually closed at a higher level. That means for 88% of Bitcoin's life, you had bought it and held it till today, you would be in profit. If we line up Bitcoin compared to assets like gold, S and P 500, NASDAQ and TLT.

• 5:01Anthony Pompliano?

  We can see that the compound annual growth rate over the last decade, sitting at 122% drastically outperforms any of the other assets. We can also see that the five year sharp ratio at over one is something to continue to make it an attractive asset. So why people may want to put it into their portfolio. Now, of course, these individual network metrics and things around the price itself only tell one part of the story. If we take a look at Blockware, doing some great research over there in their newsletter on a weekly basis. We can see that they've taken a deep dive with Will Clemente on all the on-chain analytics. Let's get right into what they've got. In terms of the monthly performance of Bitcoin, the last two months, it's the worst stretch in the history of Bitcoin. Not something to celebrate.

• 5:44Anthony Pompliano?

  We then can take a look and Will's been talking about the death spiral of Terra Luna for quite a while. His question all the way back in May was where will the contagion show up from the U S T meltdown? How many crypto funds and projects were holding U S T? How many custodians lending clients funds in Anchor, et cetera? This is crypto's Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers moment, but here there are no government bailouts. And that was quite a forward looking thing. We can see a lot of the problems showing up across the market. All sorts of margin calls and unraveling of tons and tons of leverage. You can see it showing up here in the correlation between Bitcoin and other altcoins. This is showing you the market caps and how they're coming de-pegged or decoupled from all of those altcoins. Then next we can look at the exchange net position change.

• 6:30Anthony Pompliano?

  And what we see here is because so much complexity is in the market. There's so much fear and uncertainty. People are nervous. This is the largest depletion of coins from exchanges in Bitcoin's history, according to Blockware. Next up, we can see the capitulation being reflected across realized losses, net unrealized profit and loss, and spent output profit ratio. Here we have the entity adjusted net unrealized profit and loss down big. Next up, we can see that the net realized profit loss also significantly down. And then lastly, you can see the entity adjusted SOPRO with a 14-day moving average also falling off a cliff. After that, we can go and see that the capitulation from miners, it's already here.

• 7:13Anthony Pompliano?

  We continue to see lower Bitcoin price driving higher hash rate and difficulty, and higher energy costs that puts the pressure on those miners and their margins. Hash price is now its lowest since October of 2020, according to Will, and hash ribbons have crossed, and now it's showing that miners are feeling the pressure. And a lot of them are going to have to unplug their machines, and they might have to sell some of their coins as well. But one bright spot in all of this is Murad posting this chart right here in his return to Twitter, showing that there is a ton of dry powder in the top. You have the Bitcoin price going down, but at the same time, you can see USDT and USDC, two of the leading stable coins, tons and tons and tons of dry powder sitting on the sidelines,

• 7:55Anthony Pompliano?

  just waiting to be deployed into Bitcoin once people feel like we're at the bottom. Next up, we can see that Bitcoin's market price is now below the realized price, looking here at the MVRVZ score. And that means the market capitalization, based on the last time coins were moved on-chain, is higher than where the price is today. The market's underwater in aggregate, and that shows. And a lot of people look at this as buying opportunities. Of course, we can take a look at the four-year trend. Only the fourth time ever Bitcoin is trading below that four-year trend. That signals somewhere near a bottom in the past. About 3% of Bitcoin's existence has traded below where its 200-day moving average, and below realized price as well.

• 8:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, that's where we sit right now. So that gives us a sense that we are at very, very depressed levels from a price to value standpoint, and a lot of people are starting to get excited. Now, of course, nobody knows what the future holds, but what we do know is over the last couple of weeks, there has been massive chaos across the market. Bitcoin's price has fallen off a cliff, and we continue to see contagion throughout the market. There are multiple centralized lenders who are in trouble, and there's also a ton of pressure from funds at the end of the first half of the year, going ahead and selling their assets, rebalancing, or giving redemptions to their LPs. Where we go from here is anyone's guess, but a massive part of it is the macro environment

• 9:21Anthony Pompliano?

  and the Federal Reserve's continued commitment to go ahead and conduct quantitative tightening. They're raising interest rates, and they're selling assets off their balance sheet. That macro story overlaid on the micro story of Bitcoin has a lot of people paying attention. They want to understand what exactly is going to occur. In the next three days, the banks are closed for the July 4th weekend here in the United States of America, and that means that a lot of people aren't going to be able to get fiat currency onto the crypto exchanges. The last time we had a three-day bank holiday, all of a sudden, the prices fell pretty significantly. Was it because of the bank holiday, or was it because of the contagion in the market? It's hard to parse those two things apart. And so pay attention this weekend, we'll see what happens, but I think that there should be some pressure downwards on the Bitcoin price.

• 10:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin's going to zero, it's not going to disappear. All we are watching is short-term pressures at the expense of the long-term viability of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not going away. Bitcoin will continue to do exactly what it was designed to do. Strongest computer network in the world, it has a programmatic monetary policy. There's a lot of people around the globe who find that incredibly valuable. I hope you guys enjoy these weekly updates, and we'll go ahead and see you guys next Saturday. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com.

• 10:48Anthony Pompliano?

  We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.