#972 Will The Bitcoin Bear Market Continue Through The Summer?

In today's episode, I break down Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics. I'm usually joined by WiIl Clemente on Saturdays to discuss his research through articulating his weekly newsletter. Unfortunately, Will was unable to join us this week. Instead, I go through the Blockware Newsletter to help you understand why Bitcoin continues to struggle around $30k, the macro environment, and how long this market downtown may last. To see the video with the corresponding charts referenced throughout the interview, go to my Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel posted every Saturday morning EST. ======================= Today’s episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn’t made to just buy, sell, and hodl. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more: Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you’re looking to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol — Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Long-time HODLers already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That’s why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit http://coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. ======================= If you’re a regular listener of the podcast, I would bet that two things are true: First: You’re passionate about Web3 and protecting your personal data And two: that you’re a human. If I’m right, then congratulations! You’re entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But there’s a catch: As Web3-enabled tech — like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs — drive more elements of our “real world” lives online, proving that you’re a person – without surrendering personal data – becomes exponentially more valuable. And exponentially more difficult. This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check. Humanity Check proves that you’re, well, you – without revealing personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you’ll have total control over which apps you want to share data with…and which ones you don’t. Prefer to be completely clouded in mystique? No worries - Humanity Check is 100% opt in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to http://UnstoppableDomains.com and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check. ======================= Crypto is all about giving the power back to the people and our sponsor, Pipe, is doing that in a big way. Pipe is the world’s first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for up-front capital. And with Pipe’s new API, companies with recurring revenue can build seamless, embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for Pipe’s new API right now is Compass Mining’s “Mine Now, Pay Later” which powers payment plans on bitcoin mining hardware so more miners can start or scale with a smaller up-front investment. Whether you’re looking for mining hardware or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out Pipe to access growth capital with: No loans. No dilution. No restrictive covenants or warrants. Just growth on your terms And right now, Pomp Podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars even millions fee-free for 12 months. Whether you are a bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers or a SaaS, DTC, or any business that has recurring revenue, sign up at http://pipe.com/pomp to start trading today.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. In today's episode, Will Clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down, so instead I just break down all of the charts that he put together. We try our best to go through the on-chain metrics and explain what the hell is happening with Bitcoin and why has the price been falling. I hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously I'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as Will, but I'm doing my best to keep up. So before we get into this episode though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto

• 0:43Anthony Pompliano?

  wasn't made to just buy, sell, and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you're looking to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol, Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Longtime holders already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That's why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit Coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. Again, that's Coinbase.com/wallet and learn more today. Today's episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Domains. If you're a regular listener of this podcast, I'd bet that the two things are true. First, you're passionate

• 1:26Anthony Pompliano?

  about Web 3 and protecting your personal data, and two, you're a human being. If I'm right, then congratulations, you're entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But here's the catch. As Web 3-enabled technology like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs dive more elements of our real-world lives online, proving that you're a person without surrendering your personal data becomes exponentially more valuable and exponentially more difficult at the same time. This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check. Humanity Check proves that you're, well, you, without revealing any of your personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you'll have total control over which apps you want to share your data with and which ones you don't. Prefer to be completely clouded and mystique? No worries, Humanity Check

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  It's 100% opt in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to unstoppabledomains.com today and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check. Again, head on over to unstoppabledomains.com and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check today. Today's episode is brought to you by Pipe. Crypto is all about giving the power back to the people, and our sponsor Pipe is doing that in a big way. Pipe is the world's first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for upfront capital. And with Pipe's new API, companies with recurring revenue can build seamless embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for Pipe's new API right now is Compass Mining's "Mine Now, Pay Later," which powers payment plans on Bitcoin

• 2:55Anthony Pompliano?

  mining hardware so more miners can start or scale with a smaller upfront investment. Whether you're looking for mining hardware or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out Pipe to access growth capital with no loans, no dilution, no restrictive covenants or warrants, just growth on your terms. And right now, Pomp podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars, even millions, fee-free for 12 months. Whether you are a Bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers, or a SaaS, DTC, or any business that has recurring revenue, sign up at pipe.com/pomp. Again, pipe.com/pomp to start trading today.

• 3:36Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 4:00Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up, guys? Bang, bang. I hope that you're enjoying these weekly overviews of the Bitcoin market. And this past week was one for the record books. Let's take a look at exactly what's going on. First, we're going to look at Bitcoin's price, sitting right around $29,000. It's been a little volatility, but it's down about 4% in the last 24 hours. If we then go ahead and take a look at Bitcoin's statistics, we can see that the market cap is trading around $550 billion. Again, still staying with that inflation rate of about 1.77%, and over 90% of the 21 million Bitcoin have been actually issued into the circulating supply. We can see that the real exchange volume here is just over $3 billion. There's over a million active addresses, and miners have been paid $26.5 million over the last 24 hours to continue securing the most decentralized, secure computing network

• 4:44Anthony Pompliano?

  in the world. Bitcoin is now down about 57% from its all-time high, but it's up 12% from that recent cycle low. If we then go ahead and we take a look, we can see that Bitcoin is down 25% over the last year. Gold is also down, as is the S&P 500. But over any other timeline, two to 10 years, we can see that Bitcoin continues to drastically outperform both gold and the S&P 500. And then if we kind of look even closer at the Bitcoin price, we can see at this $29,000 level that there's spend in Bitcoin's history, only 496 days where it's traded at a higher price. That means that about 89% of Bitcoin's life was lower. And if you bought during those days and had until now, you would be in profit. Then if we go take a look at the compound annual growth rate, we can see that Bitcoin's

• 5:29Anthony Pompliano?

  compound annual growth rate over the last 10 years sits at 137%, absolutely destroying gold, S&P 500, NASDAQ, or TLT. And then that five-year sharp ratio sitting at 1.24, still drastically better than any other asset in these comparisons. Looking at these key market statistics of Bitcoin are great, but obviously Bitcoin also provides on-chain metrics. There's nobody better in the game than the folks over at Blockware, Will Clemente, putting out some great research this week. We can see here that Bitcoin's price is starting to approach that 200-weekly moving average, that blue line, just dropping closer and closer to that price. Then if we take a look at this next one, and the on-chain price levels, we can see that the short-term holder realized price Which is in light blue, we're underneath that, meaning the short-term holders are likely underwater.

• 6:14Anthony Pompliano?

  But Bitcoin's price still moving closer and closer to that aggregated realized price, which sits around $24,000 or so. That historically has served as a great point. Whenever Bitcoin's price gets near that, it usually can signal that we're close to a bottom. Then of course, the MVRVZ score, you can see here on the far right, Bitcoin's price dragging that further and further down towards that green zone. Then if we look at the future's perpetual funding rate, really, there's not much to see here. It's just kind of sitting neutral. There's not a ton of volatility to the upside or the downside, which is important to understand. One thing that the Blockware team has identified, which I think is super interesting, is this idea of a geographic premium. In this week's newsletter, they went ahead and they talked about how the Asian trading hours actually are putting a massive premium on price.

• 6:59Anthony Pompliano?

  We've seen this before, as they wrote, Asia's dominated this market for the last two years. They sold the early 2021 top, they bought the summer bottom, they sold the first pump off the summer lows, they bought the dip to 40K, and then they were selling heavily in November. And so Asia continues to be at the forefront of the market. And right now, they're placing a premium on the price in today's market. Then let's go look at the Bitcoin Whale Holdings. What we can see is that Bitcoin Whale Holdings obviously were drastically impacted by the Luna Foundation Guard having 80,000 Bitcoin reserves. But as they started to sell, it pulled that number down. So what Blockware did was they went in and they pulled out the LFG 80,000 Bitcoin reserves number. So this is looking at whales, not including that organization.

• 7:41Anthony Pompliano?

  And you can see that both the increase and subsequent decline in Whale Holdings, those are much more muted now. Then let's go take a look at the supply held by retail. And as you can see in this green line going up into the right, all the way to the far side, it's just going vertical now. We're seeing more and more retail. They not only are continuing just to stack sat and kind of dollar cost average in, but they're obviously taking big purchases at these price levels. And then lastly, one of the most important metrics in the entire market is how much of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in at least a year. And right now, we're sitting at an all-time high. Over 65% of all Bitcoin in circulation has not moved in the last 12 months. Of course, it's not just about Bitcoin itself. Some are how gold has gold mining stocks. We should also take a look at Bitcoin and then the Bitcoin miners.

• 8:27Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan Leclerc over at Bitcoin Magazine, he had a great point. He said that the publicly traded Bitcoin miners in BTC terms continue to crash over the last six months. These have gotten killed because equity multiples have compressed and hash rate has risen, while Bitcoin's price has continued to fall. Now, nobody knows what's going to happen in the future, but what we do know is that there's a macro backdrop to Bitcoin right now. There's tons and tons of speculation about what the Federal Reserve is going to do, and they seem to be in control. As they've continued to raise interest rates, as they said they would, tons of assets have all sold off, stocks, bonds, real estate, and much more. And Bitcoin hasn't been safe from that. But of course, the big question in all of global finance right now is will the Federal Reserve continue to increase interest rates? Will they pursue 50 basis point hikes?

• 9:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Or will they at some point have to cool off? Maybe pause all those interest rate hikes that are planned? Or maybe they'll actually even give us an interest rate cut before the end of the year? I don't know what's going to happen, but what I do know is that just like in a liquidity crisis where all asset prices start to correlate towards one, that's the exact same thing that happens when we enter into these quantitative tightening periods. And so naturally, the Federal Reserve is in control, and it seems like everything is just one big trait. Bitcoin, holding up very, very well, though, only down about 60% or so from its all-time high. It's doing much better than many of the riskiest tech stocks. And so the million-dollar question is going to be, what is the Federal Reserve going to do? As always, I hope that you guys enjoy these.

• 9:53Anthony Pompliano?

  And of course, we'll be back next week with many more breakdowns around the Bitcoin key statistics, the on-chain metrics, and any other metrics or data that we find interesting. Until next week, I hope to see you guys on the internet. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.