Can Europe Trust the U.S. as a Strategic Partner? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Today we talk about the continued frayed relations between the U. S. & Europe, the possibility of Poland going nuclear. We also talk about the unrest that's been happening in Syria and if it could escalate to another civil war, New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Fire Support: A Veteran’s Guide to Health, Healing, and Life Beyond Service https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Support-Veterans-Navigating-Overcoming/dp/1961989204 Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Blusky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Blusky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app Blusky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.soci Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:41Speaker 01

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes On. I'm Demetri Kuntakos here with Mick Mulroy and Jason Lyons. A lot cooking since last week. Big thing going on. Ukraine intelligence sharing has been stopped by the US. They're gonna have some negotiations in Saudi Arabia in this coming week between the US and Ukraine. See if they can hammer out this mineral deal. Yeah, a lot going on too. Russia just made a, trying to push back in Kursk. Supposedly have taken

• 1:18Speaker 01

  three villages there. Yeah, so a lot going on there. What do you guys, Mick, I haven't spoken to you since they stopped sharing intel. So what's like your thought on that?

• 1:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I mean, it's, it was tough for the Ukrainians when they cut off, we cut off security assistance, of course, because with the logistical pipeline, the way it works, they'll start running on critical shortages around May, right, of 105 millimeter rounds and the rounds that they use to defend themselves, air muscle beds. But the issue with

• 2:00Speaker 02

  Intelligence, we don't know exactly what they cut off and didn't. But it has immediate impact, right? So your ability to defend yourself. And people say, oh, you know, they still pass information on defending yourself, and I hope that's the case. I don't know what it is. But, uh, you know, a good offense is also important in your defense, right? So if you can't see the enemy preparing to launch missiles and drones at you because you don't have the high definition imagery from the United States or the electronic signal, uh, package that can also attract people, then you can't adequately hit it before it hits you. Right? So that's offensive, but it's defensive.

• 2:41Speaker 02

  And then, so that's step one. You don't have the ability to strike before they launch. Two, you have a very limited ability to detect the incoming threat and therefore take it out of the sky. Right? So that's another, that's, that's two. Three, uh, any kind of offensive maneuver, uh, requires, uh, intelligence, right? I mean, you gotta have eyes and ears out there. And I think that's why you're seeing Russia take advantage. I mean, there was hundreds of drones and missiles and bombs dropped right the day after we cut off intel. So I don't think that was an accident. I think they were taking advantage of this shift between the US providing intel and potentially France trying to make up for it.

• 3:25Speaker 02

  They have, they have satellites, both, both types of satellites that they need. Of course, none of it is as good as the United States. I'm much as saying that because I'm biased, but most of our European allies have relied on the US for intelligence. Right? So us cutting off Ukraine, it's very difficult for them to make up for it. Should they have relied on us? You could certainly make the case they shouldn't. Now you can definitely make the case they shouldn't.

• 3:52Speaker 02

  But certainly this has caused, uh, Ukraine a

• 3:56Speaker 02

  A lot of trouble and it is likely to push Russia further away from the negotiation table. All right. So things are going their way. If we're cutting out security assistance and intelligence support, um, Russia looking at that saying, why would we now go to the, the, why would we go to the table to start talking about a ceasefire? Um, so it's, it to me, it's having the opposite effects on bringing this conflict to, uh, an end and certainly having, having some kind of, uh, earnest dialogue, which Russia hasn't even indicated they're interested in really, uh, to how this war could stop, at least a pause where they'd be security guarantees to Ukraine. So it isn't just a pause while Russia brings in more North Korean troops and, um, rebuilds its

• 4:40Speaker 02

  arsenal. So it's, it's very problematic. It likely caused a lot of the, um, carnage that we saw this week, including the deaths of 14 people and five of more children, uh, at least contributed to it. And I think, I think they should turn it back on immediately and not use that as some kind of bargaining chip to get the Ukrainians to the table, which, you know, unless I'm missing something, they seem to want to go to the table.

• 5:04Speaker 03

  Right.

• 5:06Speaker 02

  Yeah. And then the mineral deal, apparently according to reports, uh, we'll have to find out if it's true, does not, even if they sign it, doesn't mean that they'll turn back on the security assistance nor turn on intel. So, uh, in what's in it for them category, I don't know what's in it for them. It seems like they would have to have a guarantee at least of continued, uh, military support and intel to sign the deal or else it's just, you know, doesn't mean anything for the Ukrainians.

• 5:37Speaker 03

  And what does this do for our, you know, um, our European allies, allies anywhere, not even just in Europe, you know, if we are, you know, turning things on and off at the, you know, um, At the drop of a dime here, are they even going to trust us to, you know, to have their backs? You know, that's when they'll start looking elsewhere. You know, it's, I think the second and third order effects of this decision is, has yet to be seen.

• 6:03Jack Murphy?

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• 6:47Jack Murphy?

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• 7:39Speaker 02

  So another part of what Jay is talking about is also gonna be whether they trust our weapon systems. No, we think about it. I mean, we've we've essentially made a lot of our systems ineffective because we cut off, you know, certain things that are required to for them to be successful, like the HIMARS, for example, right? That requires specific US data to be accurate. So if we if we sell somebody a HIMARS and then we decide we don't like them anymore, like apparently we don't like Ukraine anymore.

• 8:13Speaker 01

  Right.

• 8:13Speaker 02

  Obviously, that's something I disagree with, but why buy that system anymore? You think about it. You don't. I mean, it's not that difficult from a and that's what Europe is saying right now. They're talking about canceling F thirty five orders and and going to their entirely own system. So increasing their manufacturing and and technical capabilities and basically dumping the US, which is the best equipment, weapon systems in the world. But if it's not reliable and you can't count on it, it doesn't matter if it's the best. If we can essentially render it ineffective, then it is not something that most countries

• 8:54Speaker 02

  would consider safe. And now that we're talking the way we are about alliances with Russia, at least in some capacity and away from NATO, I think we're about to see, I'm not, you know, somebody is investing and all that stuff, but I don't know that investing in US defense industry right now would be a smart move.

• 9:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, buy some desalt stock, I guess, but we're not we're not advisors, not a financial advisor.

• 9:24Speaker 02

  No, yeah, I don't mean that. I just mean from a perspective is we we do a lot to promote US weapon sales around the world. We, the US government, it's part of it's part of our basically national security system.

• 9:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:37Speaker 02

  And it's gonna be difficult to explain why countries need to buy our stuff if they now believe that we can essentially render it, you know, not useful.

• 9:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. Question Mick and for Jason, you guys have.

• 9:54Speaker 01

  The requisite experience in national security um on a scale of one to ten the the absolute like one eighty we've done in terms of like our foreign policy when it comes to Eastern Europe particularly Russia and this whole Ukraine mess on a scale of one to ten how fucking insane is it in your opinion in your opinions

• 10:20Speaker 02

  Bit of a loaded question, Dee.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  Is it?

• 10:22Speaker 02

  I'm sorry. You know what I'm fucking interested?

• 10:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, one being

• 10:26Speaker 05

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• 11:56Speaker 01

  Well, it's normal and ten being in effin insane.

• 12:00Speaker 02

  Okay. You you want to go first, Jay, or me, dude?

• 12:04Speaker 03

  No, go ahead.

• 12:05Speaker 02

  So, I mean, to put it, to put both sides out there, right?

• 12:10Speaker 02

  And what I mean by both sides. And I, I, I did wanna say one thing about this. You know, you see these debates where it's like isolationist versus globalist and all that stuff.

• 12:20Speaker 02

  I would say, one, it doesn't do the conversation any good. It's just the labels, right? But you're not an isolationist if you wanna see the border secure. You're not a globalist if you believe that NATO was, you know, a benefit to the United States, right? So, I mean, just have the debates that are just, you know, putting these tag, taglines on there. So, every president, including President Trump, has been pushing the Europeans to spend more on their own national defense. It's, it's, it's clear to me that they just said, well, we have you here, so we'll spend money on what things we want and, and we'll just rely on you for our security. And I don't think that was a fair under the NATO treaty, right?

• 13:03Speaker 02

  They had a 2% requirement and obviously we had hoped that most of them would exceed it, not, not go under it. And they did go under it. So it is good that they finally got their act together. But it's, they got their act together because they don't trust the United States. And so that's the ne- a negative. And it's one thing to say that we're gonna pull out of NATO, which would be, I think, a horrible strategic mistake. But it's another thing to actually start talking about Russia as if it's some kinda ally. So that's when you start running into the, you do realize what's, what could happen. We could have Europe that triples, quadruples its defense spending. Trillion dollars. Germany alone is talking 400 billion.

• 13:46Speaker 02

  Poland's talking about doubling its military and, and basically trading every fighting mage male as a soldier. I mean, it is, it is cross Europe. We could get to the point where they do all that. Their their military is close to on par with us, or at least certainly substantially stronger. And then we don't, we drop out of the alliance.

• 14:07Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 14:07Speaker 02

  We could talk about how difficult it is to do that, but and then we lose the benefit of having this fully capable military. And it is capable now, but it would be even more capable after this reform to our benefit. Right? That's the whole point of having a military alliance. And it does bear mentioning that the only time it's been used in the Article Five sense is for our benefit. So this idea that we have been fighting for NATO partners is untrue. It's actually the opposite. They lost thousand, over a thousand collectively in our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. And as as most people that fought there, saw them, they were there for 20 years.

• 14:50Speaker 02

  Right? So anyway, so that's, that's, I think, both sides. I would hope that we would get the benefit of Europe's increased capacity building. And this idea that they're going to integrate their military in a European Defense Force for our benefit, which is our benefit.

• 15:06Speaker 01

  So about a seven.

• 15:11Speaker 01

  Jay, what what do you think?

• 15:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, I agree with, you know, with everything that Mick said.

• 15:20Speaker 03

  People jump to one side or the other, you know, they like you said, like Mick said, they put these labels on it. And it's not in every case, but in some cases, and this being one of them, it can be both. You know, it can be both and safely and effectively it can be, you can be, but we can say, okay. We're going to take a little bit of an isolatious stance here, but we're also recognizing that, you know, alliances like NATO, things like that. And places where we may need to intervene are necessary. We but again, people get wrapped up in their political ident identification. And that tends to push them to one side or the other. But I I believe it can be both.

• 16:04Speaker 03

  And I I think out of those two, us dropping out of NATO and Mick, you said, you know, it's complicated. I don't even know how that works. I think that would be the more dangerous of the the two sides.

• 16:19Speaker 02

  And so everybody's tracking that you have under the NATO treaty, you have to tell they got a name for the country, which is actually us, that you intend to drop out. And of course, that's public. And then you have to have a waiting period of a year. And then you can drop out. The US has an additional step as it was passed by Congress, supported by now Secretary of State Rubio, that the US can't, that the president can't unilaterally drop out. So he has to go to Congress. I think it's a two thirds vote in the Senate.

• 16:55Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 16:56Speaker 02

  To then drop out. And that was passed by, I know Senator Rubio at the time Senator, was one of the sponsors of the bill on the Republican side. So that he essentially, President Trump can't drop out without that. And thus, it's challenged in the Supreme Court and they win. But as it stands now, it's a one year waiting period. And then the US system, it was passed in the National Defense Authorization Act and I think, I can't remember the year, 23 maybe. But that, so there is a, there's a, people were just saying that he, we're just gonna pull out.

• 17:33Speaker 01

  Right.

• 17:34Speaker 02

  That's not the case.

• 17:35Speaker 01

  Well, that's good. Uh, speaking about Poland, Mick mentioned that they're thinking about calling up all their military age males for military training. They're also kicking around the idea of going nuclear, which you can kind of understand, like it's literally their backyard, you know? What do you guys, what are your thoughts on that? And like, how would that look like?

• 18:03Speaker 03

  Yeah, for me, it'd be because I've never even put the, the, you know, Poland and nuclear together. How easy or hard would it be? Like, do they have the capability? Which I, I have no idea.

• 18:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, so in inside Europe, you have the UK and France that are nuclear armed. And I think between the two, they have like five hundred something. Um, I don't know how many nuclear weapons do you need, right? But.

• 18:30Speaker 03

  Right.

• 18:31Speaker 02

  So the question would be internal to the sharing inside the EU, and I don't know. I don't know the legalities of this. Could could France or the UK share their technology? With Poland and Germany is also talking about it, too. We all know the Germans will be able to figure this out on their own.

• 18:48Speaker 03

  Sure, yeah.

• 18:49Speaker 02

  We probably pulled still not not to this, but. This is something that could be expanded rather quickly because the technology and the resources are there. So we could see multiple states arm a nuclear weapons inside Europe or countries. And France is talking about using theirs to basically cover the umbrella. Of uh, the EU, which, you know, might be more effective so they don't all have to have their own individual. Uh, nuclear weapons program.

• 19:19Speaker 03

  Yikes, but it speaks to the the I'm not going to say desperation, but it's the only word I can think of right now. It speaks to the gravity of the situation that they see themselves in that they're bringing this up.

• 19:31Speaker 02

  Yes, agreed. And it's, I mean, this is. They're preparing for war in Europe right now. I mean, I think I think Americans should realize that there's all the border countries are now dropping out of all the. The the uh, conventions on the use of landmines and all that stuff. For reason. So they're going to create this, you know, huge. Um, demilit not demilitarized, but buffer between them and Russia all the way up in Finland. All they're dropping out, right? So they are spending more on their military. I think they'll probably get collectively more than we spent potentially, potentially. Um, this is serious and it and it could, they they think that if Russia is successful in Ukraine, that they're next. And they're not there. They no longer can rely on the United States, even though we have an obligation under Article Five.

• 20:16Speaker 02

  So Europe is preparing for war. Now, I don't think it's just rhetorical bluster. I think they believe that this could happen and they want to. Get to the point where they're strong enough to deter it from happening.

• 20:28Speaker 01

  Uh, sticking with Poland for a second, um, the foreign minister today tweeted out uh about Starlink. So Radoslaw Sikorski, and sorry if I brutal, you know, brutalize that name. Starlinks for Ukraine are paid by the Polish digitized ministry at a cost of about $50 million a year. The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart. If SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider, we will be forced to look at other suppliers.

• 21:00Speaker 01

  Elon Musk responded to him telling him to be quiet, small man, you pay a tiny fraction of the cost and there's no substitute to Starlink. Marco Rubio and Elon Musk is Elon Musk, he's a little cuckoo, we all know that and he's, you know, susceptible to tweeting at all times of the day. You know, it's fine, but then Marco Rubio, who's the Secretary of State, basically uh came out and uh sort of backed it. I'm trying to pull up his tweet and the only thing too is you have a foreign minister of an ally, Poland, and uh the Secretary of State of America going at it over Twitter, right? Where it's like, this is a bit of an oddity.

• 21:43Speaker 01

  Especially when stakes are so high, man, you know what I mean? Like Trump won when Trump would go off about NATO not paying their fair share, even though Poland was one of the countries that did pay their, the, the 2% or more. That's a little bit different than when there's a full-scale invasion going on. People are dying by the tens of thousands.

• 22:03Speaker 01

  Where you have your foreign ministers of two allied countries going at it on Twitter with an oligarch in the middle of it.

• 22:11Speaker 01

  There was also a report, just to round out the story, there was also a report that the EU and European nations were looking at alternatives to Starlink, just, I mean, just in case, which you cannot blame them, right? This speaks to the same fact where they need to rely on their own security rather than relying on American security, so.

• 22:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, and I think Elon Musk came out after that and said that he would absolutely not cut off.

• 22:37Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 22:38Speaker 02

  Yeah. So I mean, this goes to a broader question of reliance in how vulnerable it makes countries if they rely on a system that has the ability of one individual to just cut it off. And I think that's probably why he sent out that last tweet because, and it doesn't even matter. Every one of these countries are now going to say Starlink is compromised and we use it. I mean, we teach tactical training up here in Montana. We use Starlink. It's awesome. It's very user friendly, even, you know, littles like me. But it's gonna be, it's gonna be considered not reliable.

• 23:23Speaker 02

  Even, even threatening to turn it off is, you know, these countries are gonna be like, okay, got it. Never gonna rely on that again. It's just common sense when it comes to national security. So, bad decision, I think, to even, and then the other company, I don't remember the name, so I'm not gonna repeat it, but the one that cut off the high, high resolution imagery.

• 23:45Speaker 03

  Oh, yeah.

• 23:46Speaker 02

  Like, good luck trying to get another person to buy your imagery. That's done. You're over. Unless you're just gonna work for the US.

• 23:56Speaker 02

  There's consequences rolling downhill for all the US defense industry on this. You don't have to be somebody who follows defense industry to see that coming. They're just not gonna rely on us anymore. We're unreliable. We, we essentially can at moments when turn off the effectiveness of a weapon system or imagery or communications, which obviously are required to be able to function as a military.

• 24:22Speaker 03

  And that, that all trickles down to, you know, from that big picture all the way down to that human asset on the ground. He's like, why do I, why should I work with you guys? If I, you know, if you guys can do this, you know, at the drop of a hat, how do I know that you're gonna keep me safe, you know? So, again, those second and third order effects.

• 24:46Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yes, it's gonna have serious consequences.

• 24:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, uh, what do you think? A little speculation. What do you think's gonna go down at these uh talks in Saudi Arabia? Also, I got a question, like a dummy question. Why are they happening in Saudi Arabia between these two delegations? But I, let's just speak to the more broader point of what do you think's gonna happen? We're gonna sign this mineral deal like?

• 25:15Speaker 01

  Mick?

• 25:16Speaker 02

  Uh, so Saudi Arabia is trying to play a lot of the roles in mediation, of course, this is between the US and Ukraine. So it should be, you know, regardless of the current um issues between the leaders, it's a partner, was a partner. So uh, but anyway, that's what they're having it there. They, they play, they're gonna play a substantial role in, you know, US and Iran, for example, potentially. Cause they've had their own um detente, if you will, with Iran. But I think that's why it's happening there. So what will happen? Uh, I, I think they have made it clear, they being the Ukrainians are ready to sign this mineral deal.

• 25:55Speaker 02

  Um, and the US is saying in some ways that guarantees security because the US can't, you know, realize their benefit of the deal. If Ukraine's taken over by Russia, which is true. But I do think Ukraine's gonna wanna see some kind of insur- security assurance, even if it's primarily Europe backed up by the United States with air power and everything. And they're gonna wanna at least see the continuation of security assistance because they don't really have an obligation to pay back that which they've already got. So uh intel and security assistance, I think, would be at the minimum for Ukraine, but we'll see.

• 26:35Speaker 02

  I think they said they're ready to sign it. And, you know, at the end of the day, I hope it, I hope it gets signed. And we go back to supporting Ukraine with security assistance and intel, it's in our own interest. And if that happens, and we're seeing Europe move out and increase support, now they're releasing the uh, or at least there's reports that they're gonna at least uh the funding that they've seized from Russia. So if we wanna get Russia to the table, we're gonna have to start making it consequences uh against them if we want them to do it. Because right now, we think it's going in their favor. That's, I'm not a good negotiator, but that's, that's not gonna work in my opinion.

• 27:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:17Speaker 01

  Jay, you got anything on that or?

• 27:19Speaker 02

  No.

• 27:19Speaker 01

  Makes pretty good at this.

• 27:20Speaker 02

  As usual.

• 27:21Speaker 01

  Yeah. Um.

• 27:25Speaker 01

  So, yeah.

• 27:28Speaker 01

  Yeah. So what's been going on in Syria? I mean, Mickey, you, you know, the ins and outs. You want to give us a rundown on what's hot happened the last week or so? In Syria?

• 27:37Speaker 02

  Yeah. And I was just talking about this. This is, uh. You know, everybody was watching Jelani, if you believe he's not a reformist, Ahmed Al Shara, if you believe he is. Um, obviously the Jelani is a, is a name that he used, uh, when he founded Al Qaeda in Syria, right? So he took over Damascus. Um, with HTS, which used to be, or still is, I think, a US designated terrorist organization. There was a lot of reformist talk, a lot of, uh, hope that he would be more unified.

• 28:14Speaker 02

  I think the current administration was, is, was much less or is much less more doubtful than the last administration on whether he was in fact a reformer. And I think unfortunately, um, for the people of Syria, that that seems to be accurate. Because in the last forty-eight hours, over a thousand people have been killed by forces aligned with him, his forces. Uh, jihadists that essentially now run the government in Syria. And they did more than just fight the, you know, the Assad insurgents.

• 28:53Speaker 02

  They brutalized civilians, summarily executed them, stripped women down, uh, paraded them. There's some reports, uh, nude and did horrible things to them and then summarily executed them. They've gotten kids to shoot their parents. Uh, it's, it is about as bad and as ISIS slash Al Qaeda as you get. So the world's now aghast as they should be in that. Um, and they're looking to Al Shara, Jukar Jelani.

• 29:24Speaker 05

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• 29:31Speaker 05

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• 30:14Speaker 05

  Carry on with fewer attacks and ask your doctor about Extensure. Learn more at Extensure.com or call 1-833-393-3678.

• 30:24Speaker 00

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small-business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at OnDeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 30:54Speaker 02

  So like, what the hell's going on? Right? So what are you gonna do to stop this? I don't know that he promoted it. I don't know if that's known yet. But I can tell you that every group that, and we're looking at doing some humanitarian stuff there, every group is gonna react to this by saying, "This guy is not a reformist. He's not about a unified..." This is an Alawite community, which is on the east coast of, and it was associated, that's where Assad came from. Of course, doesn't mean you kill every Alawite, just because he happened to be of that sect. About the Druze in the south, which are Christians, are basically creating their own country. We already know about the Kurds in the east.

• 31:38Speaker 02

  It's gonna segregate the entire country and zero interest in integrating a military because they don't trust it at all. And after last week, why would they? So this is going in the wrong direction.

• 31:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, um, you also saw um Israel taking a bit more of a active role. They sent in a big uh special forces uh op deep into Syria.

• 32:07Speaker 02

  And they're defending the Druze.

• 32:08Speaker 01

  Right.

• 32:09Speaker 02

  They've moved into the Druze. Yeah, sure.

• 32:12Speaker 01

  Um, I'm trying to look if there was any update where like did uh Jelani or Al Sharrow uh make any kind of statement in terms of like what the fuck's going on, right? You're the interim president. You know, everybody wants to see you in your nice suit, be a statesman. I think.

• 32:28Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 32:29Speaker 01

  If you really want to be taken seriously, now's the time to kind of put a statement out there and see whether, you know, shit or get off the pot like in terms of being just a another Al Qaeda guy or an actual, you know, leader of a country. Um.

• 32:45Speaker 02

  He did make a statement. It was what you'd expect, but you know, I talked about accountability and all that. Um, he's gonna have to prove it because, I mean, either he was complicit in it, which means he shouldn't be in charge of anything. Or he doesn't have the ability to stop it, which means he isn't in charge of anything, right? So um, it which means like stop pretending to be president. You know, why are we listening to you just because you got can't wear a suit and you can, you know, you know, he's well spoken. Okay, great. Uh, there's been plenty of um despots that are well spoken. So I think that the world's gonna find out whether he's either, you know, complicit with this or can't do anything to stop it. Can't do anything to stop it, then

• 33:31Speaker 02

  Syria is in a bad place. Not that it was, I mean, it's obviously a good thing. I saw it is gone, but he can't, he can't just replace one um brutal dictator with another.

• 33:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. Uh. I think, is it safe to say he doesn't have control over like the majority of the guy like the, you know, Al Qaeda or HTS, former HTS guys?

• 33:57Speaker 02

  Honestly, that's the best case scenario for him right now.

• 33:59Speaker 01

  Right.

• 34:00Speaker 02

  Right, so that I don't have control over, because if you do have control over him, and they videotaped all this stuff. So I wouldn't recommend going to see it, but I do a lot of foreign media where they play stuff that we would never play on. And it was just nonstop. It was like, it was, it was, uh, tough to watch. Even from somebody who spent way too much time in war zones, it was, it was god awful. And so they filmed it. The people that perpetrated it and put it on social media. So this, this means, A, they want to do this. B, they don't fear any repercussions, because why would you do that, right? So either he is controlling this, or he has no control over. And the latter is the best case scenario, but it's not a good scenario.

• 34:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:47Speaker 01

  Jay, you got anything?

• 34:48Speaker 03

  No, I mean, like Mick just said, um, he, his best, his best defense is I had no control over this. Well, okay, that's great for you, but what about the rest of the country? You know, what's gonna happen now? Um, I, I mean, I, I think a short term fix for him might be to say, hey, we hunted down those responsible. You know, but people do that all the time within their own organization, turn on their own people, you know, and just as a show of force. So really doesn't mean anything at the end of the day.

• 35:23Speaker 01

  What happens now for like in terms of the international community? Cause there's a lot of talk once Jelani came to power. Uh, and he was doing like the glad hanging with like Turkey and he went Saudi Arabia, he was really going around, you know, this is the new leader of Syria. There was talk about like Europe and other countries like kind of lightening the load in terms of sanctions and things like that to kind of open the economy up, get some stability going. Where does that stand now? I mean, I can't see that being like full steam ahead anymore.

• 35:52Speaker 02

  So there's a meeting, I think in Neman, uh, this coming week, maybe Wednesday or something, between a lot of the regional actors, Turkey, et cetera. On this very issue. As far as the sanctions, the US was looking at, um, getting rid of the Caesar sanctions. Cause that was specific to the Assad regime, who's obviously, you know, sitting in Moscow right now. Um, but this isn't, this is probably going to put a pause on any, any of that. And to give the current administration credit, they called it. I mean, there's a lot of people that were very hesitant during the transition. And now that the Trump administration's in place to talk to

• 36:36Speaker 02

  Al-Shara. I'm a believer that he should talk to people, but you know, maybe they proved me wrong. In the sense that you don't want to normalize a guy who has has not proven that he's like, let's face it, he took power by force. I mean, it's a good thing that Assad left, but he thought like he was elected by the people of

• 36:55Speaker 02

  So he's not the president. I mean, people, I wish we would stop calling people president unless they were democratically elected. That's another topic, but just because he's a self-described president, he took the power by force and he hasn't shown any actions, really, that he's a different, and by I've been, and I know people disagree with that, but after last week, I don't think you'll hear many of them saying.

• 37:19Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 37:20Speaker 02

  Say anything.

• 37:22Speaker 01

  Um, it's interesting too, because I remember when he first came to power in the interim government after he took Damascus and stuff. And Assad fled. Um, there was all this talk about like sometime in March. They would get together and kind of figure out a constitution. Um, we are sometime in March now, and it doesn't seem like that's going to happen anytime soon, unfortunately.

• 37:45Speaker 02

  No, he might start talking about that. It takes a long time to write a constitution, right? That gives you time to stay in power. And then there's, you know, they've even said four years before an election. I mean, that's most of them said, okay, so you're just gonna stay in power. That's, that's the plan. So these, and so Syria is just not going to be a country, right? It's going to be a series of sections.

• 38:11Speaker 01

  Sad. Um, staying in the Middle East.

• 38:16Speaker 01

  Iran rejected the idea or the like the pitch to talk about their nuclear program with the United States. Um, they came out pretty, pretty heavily against it. I mean, the president of Iran last week said he was willing to open a dialogue, but the big boss, the Ayatollah uh, kiboshed that and the Ayatollah spoke yesterday, I believe. And it was a pretty, pretty, uh, clear rebuke of like trying to have any kind of dialogue with the United States, definitely not Israel. So we're there now and we've heard it before that like Iran's very could be very close to

• 38:57Speaker 01

  weaponizing a nuclear weapon, uh, you know, six months or so, it's actually like a deliverable.

• 39:04Speaker 01

  What happens with this? Cause I know even though we're kind of scooting away from Ukraine, the administration, they're very much Iran hawk still there.

• 39:14Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, I agree. So the, yeah, the issue is they have enough enriched. They believe enough enriched uranium for six weapons. The next step is they have to be able to create triggering mechanism that would cause it to explode, right? To be uh, an actual weapon. And then you could say, I'm sure they have Iran has, that's why they, they focus so much on ballistic missiles. They have the ability to reach Israel, which they've already proven. So that's a lethal combination. Israel will not accept it. I think they would um, launch their own effort.

• 39:54Speaker 02

  If uh, the US wasn't with them, but if the US is with them, then the chances of success go up substantially. There's also certain munitions that only we have that would be very effective uh, against, you know, these hardened deep earth uh, facilities. So I, I agree with you, uh, Dee, it's, this administration's hawkish on Iran. And I think they should be. And this, according to President Trump, I mean, he, he seems to be trying to do this diplomatically. Uh, but if the Ayatollah has summarily dismissed that, but they're still going for a nuclear weapon. I think we could see direct US military action against it, at least from else comments.

• 40:35Speaker 02

  Uh, potentially with Israel um, or without, but you're seeing a lot of activity of, you know, our strategic bombers in the area. It's probably intentional to send a signal. Certainly, I think this could happen in this year.

• 40:51Speaker 01

  Jesus.

• 40:55Speaker 01

  There was a bit of a few days back and we didn't talk about this pre show, but uh where the Trump administration was do having secret talks with Hamas.

• 41:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 41:07Speaker 01

  Uh, which I'm sure did not sit great in uh Israel.

• 41:13Speaker 01

  Any thought on that? What's what that deal is like?

• 41:18Speaker 02

  You want to start, Jay? Um, no, I didn't know anything about it.

• 41:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, it just gets caught up in like everything else that's going on. You know what I mean? Like it's a break in the news thing and then something else happens. So.

• 41:30Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. So it was just overwhelming to be frank, and I'm part of it. So. Um, the, the issue is apparently the Trump administration has been talking to Hamas since they came to office, right? And uh, at least the reports aren't that they didn't tell the players. So I, I get there's two parts to that too. So if you look at it from the US point of view, the criticism fair or not of the Biden administration was they were functioning as mediator, which is good, except for the fact that we have Americans that are hostages. So we're not just a mediator. We're a grieved party, if you will. So. Um, I think the Trump administration is saying, therefore, we're gonna, we're gonna talk to directly to, and I saw the uh,

• 42:14Speaker 02

  uh, gentleman that replaced Roger Carson's uh, today on uh, a news program. Uh, he said, basically, the US has to, has to deal directly with Hamas because we're not just a functionary of Israel. Good point. I think from Israel's side, it might complicate their ability to get their hostages out. That's how they view it. So it just require coordination, but the US I think should play a direct role in recovering US citizens. There are citizens. So that's, that's where I would stand on that. And I think that's what the US uh, the White House would say is why they're building them. Hopefully it's coordinated though.

• 42:54Speaker 01

  Question, um, the American citizens that are there are they're, they're dual citizens, right?

• 43:00Speaker 01

  So you don't think Israel will have like, like, we want to be pointed on this, you know, you know what I mean? Like, wouldn't want, like, want, like, to have the right of what, you know, way to go?

• 43:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, fair point, fair point that they would want that because they want to be, they want to consolidate who's making the decisions. Right?

• 43:21Speaker 01

  But I mean, which does make, it's understandable, right? In terms of like getting a deal done.

• 43:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, for all of the hostages, not just the Americans.

• 43:30Speaker 01

  Right.

• 43:30Speaker 02

  That's what, that's what the concern is for Israel. It's a valid concern that, that, that Trump administration will come up with a plan to get Americans out, but not Israelis. I know they're dual citizens, but yeah, I, I understand their concern, which is why I think it should be heavily coordinated. And I think it will be, but it, it does, I think it is a fair point to say, well, they are Americans and we're not going to totally rely on another country to make the decisions for us when it comes to our citizens, be they dual citizens or not. I think that was the point that they made this morning.

• 44:06Speaker 01

  Yeah. Uh, and yeah, just as we started recording this, um, Israel cut off electricity to Gaza.

• 44:16Speaker 01

  Probably a couple of hours ago.

• 44:20Speaker 01

  But they, they were going to send a delegation somewhere to negotiate again.

• 44:25Speaker 01

  It's like whoever these negotiators are, man, somebody buy them a fricking beer because it sounds like it's nonstop kind of.

• 44:34Speaker 02

  Right now, going to Doha, I think. To talk about, uh, so the, the cutting off of electricity is substantial, as you guys would guess, as would all our listeners. Um, they've already cut off humanitarian aid, so there's no food going in. The electricity, of course, is necessary to run hospitals, but also to the, run the purification of water.

• 44:58Speaker 02

  So um huge, huge issue. They're not gonna be able to have clean water. Um, the only alternative I would, there is no alternative that I know under, I know of, and we're actually, my group has a plan to bring fresh water into Gaza. So we're probably smarter than the average bear on the issues of clean water in Gaza. But um, it's obviously seawater, right? So which you can't drink. So um, huge problem. I think the idea behind it is they're gonna put pressure on Hamas to extend the first phase of the ceasefire negotiations because um, there's no consensus at all inside Israel on going into the second phase, which requires the withdrawal of IDF from Gaza.

• 45:40Speaker 02

  And they're just not to a place where that's feasible. Because there's no alternative other than Hamas to security that would be a backing left by the withdrawal of IDF. So uh, obviously, this is significantly controversial because you can't withhold food and water and medicine from civilians as a method of warfare. But this is uh, likely why they did it is to to put so much pressure on Hamas, but they're also hoping Hamas cares about the Palestinian people of Gaza, which they've showed zero concern.

• 46:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 46:15Speaker 02

  Like zero concern. If you look at Gaza, it's completely destroyed. And then they pop up with their clean uniforms like we're supposed to be impressed. Yeah.

• 46:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, man. I don't know how I feel about uh, cutting food and water from a place that's been fucking too. And I know there's probably still another ten, fifteen thousand Hamas bad guys. I get it. Um, but

• 46:39Speaker 01

  cutting food and water just to uh, prove a point and and put some feet to the fire. You know, there's real life fucking consequences for that and I I just can't fuck with that.

• 46:49Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, I agree.

• 46:51Speaker 01

  Um.

• 46:54Speaker 01

  God damn it. We gotta finish off on like some like a feel good story sometimes for the love of God. Um.

• 47:02Speaker 01

  Mick, what else? Talk to me. What do you got?

• 47:05Speaker 02

  So if you guys are cool with it, I do have a book from a friend of mine who just, he just wrote it. If it is, I'm sorry that it's, I got a different ear, but uh, he's a retired Green Beret, Eric Lawrence, good buddy of mine for the last, I don't know, decades and decades. He wrote a book. It kinda looks like a military manual. I think it was, it's not, um, but it's called Fire Support, A Veteran's Guide to Health Healing and Life Beyond Service. So I, I feel like it's, uh, we should, you know, highlight, plug these kinds of things because this is a veteran talking to other veterans about a very real concern, uh, which is finding meaning after service. And this is what this book's all about. I assume you can find it on, uh, Amazon, but, uh, that's, that is what it's called. It has like a serial number, like an

• 47:51Speaker 02

  RG zero, zero dash, zero one.

• 47:53Speaker 01

  Tac FM.

• 47:56Speaker 02

  Anyway, I wanted to highlight that because, uh, you know, he spent a lot of time putting this together and it's primarily just to labor love for his fellow veterans.

• 48:04Speaker 01

  Well, there'll be a link in the description for that. So go grab that there. Um, anything else?

• 48:13Speaker 02

  I think, I think we covered it. A lot of, oh, I gotta jump on, I gotta jump on.

• 48:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's Nick Mick's gotta go do his real job instead of like, you know, screwing around with us. Check out Mick at, uh, Fog Boat. Incredible work, uh, providing humanitarian aid across the world. Uh, Lobo Institute as well. Any and all, uh, links are in the description for Mick. You want to see stuff he's read, he's written and stuff. Follow him on Twitter, on Blue Sky, LinkedIn, all those places down in the description. Jay, of course, his links are down in the description as well. Andy Milburn, we miss him desperately. He'll be back soon. His links are also in the description. And if you want some cool merch, like what Jay's wearing or what Mick's drinking from,

• 48:57Speaker 01

  that link is in the description as well. If you want to help support the show, patreon.com slash the team house. Ad free, audio and video for both Izon and the team house and.

• 49:09Speaker 05

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extenture, Depamocumab, ULAa. If your asthma keeps interrupting.

• 49:17Speaker 05

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• 49:59Speaker 05

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• 50:39Speaker 01

  Thank you, guys. Really appreciate it.

• 50:41Speaker 03

  Thanks, Jen.

• 50:42Speaker 02

  Thanks, guys.

• 50:51Speaker 05

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extensure, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extensure is an ultra-long-acting prescription-maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extensure is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth... Tongue or trouble breathing? Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection.

• 51:34Speaker 05

  Common cold, sinus infection, inflammation in the nose, flu or fluke-like symptoms, joint pain or sore throat may occur. Carry on with fewer attacks and ask your doctor about Extensure. Learn more at Extensure.com or call 1-833-393-3678.

• 51:51Speaker 06

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• 52:33Speaker 05

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extensure, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extensure is an ultra-long-acting prescription maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extensure is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection.

• 53:16Speaker 05

  Common cold, sinus infection, inflammation in the nose, flu or fluke-like symptoms, joint pain or sore throat may occur. Carry on with fewer attacks and ask your doctor about Extensure. Learn more at Extensure.com or call 1-833-393-3678.

• 53:33Speaker 00

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• 54:03Speaker 05

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extenture, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting,

• 54:11Speaker 05

  it may be time to try something else. Extenture is an ultra-long-acting prescription maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extenture is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection. Common colds, sinus infection, inflammation in the nose, flu or fluke-like symptoms, joint pain or sore throat may occur.

• 54:53Speaker 05

  Carry on with fewer attacks and ask your doctor about Extenture. Learn more at extenture.com or call 1-833-393-3678.

• 55:03Speaker 00

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.