What Apple's Failures Say About AI's Limitations —  With M.G. Siegler

M. G. Siegler is the author of Spyglass. He joins Big Technology to discuss Apple’s subdued WWDC and whether it signals deeper trouble with AI's capabilities. Tune in to hear a breakdown of Apple’s “UI over AI” approach, whether the company can pull off the Apple Intelligence vision at all, and if Liquid Glass is a redesign destined to fail. We also cover the vibes at the conference and the state of Apple today. Hit play for clear-eyed, no-nonsense analysis of the tech world’s biggest stories. --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack? Here’s 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Questions? Feedback? Write to: [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  Are Apple's AI failures happening in a vacuum? Or are they a damning sign of the limitations of AI itself? Yes, we're going there. Plus, plenty more observations from WWDC. That's coming up right after this. This episode is brought to you by Genesis. What does it actually take to put Agentic AI to work across an entire enterprise? I recently spoke with Genesis chairman and CEO Tony Bates about why orchestration is emerging as a competitive advantage in customer experience and what companies need to get right in the AI era. Then I sat down with Adam Mitchell, head of enterprise business solutions at Voya Financial, to go inside a large scale Agentic CX transformation, including the business decisions,

• 0:44Alex Kantrowitz?

  trade offs and lessons along the way. You can watch both conversations now on my YouTube channel today. It's never been more challenging to get frontier compute. How do you know where to look, who to trust, or how much to pay? Akash is an open cloud that provides easy access, flexibility and peace of mind. That's how companies like Razer were able to cut their inference cost by 15 times. Visit akash.network/alex for a free consultation. That's akash.network/alex for a free consultation. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool headed and nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond. Let's break down what happened at Apple's big developer event this week and look at

• 1:29Alex Kantrowitz?

  whether the company's AI limitations say something worrying about AI itself. We're joined today once again by the great MG Siegler, author of Spyglass, which you can find at spyglass.org. MG, welcome back.

• 1:43Speaker 01

  Thanks so much for having me on, Alex.

• 1:44Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right, let's just get quickly to the event itself. I'm just going to go read the last line of your post to begin with, because I want to get your reaction as to what we saw from Apple, because they did have their big annual developer event this year introduced a new user interface, said shockingly little about AI. I think you said that they said more about the phone app than they did about Apple Intelligence.

• 2:08Speaker 01

  Indeed.

• 2:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  Your conclusion is overall, I'd probably give this WWDC two out of five stars, but it easily could have been a zero due to their mistakes of the past. So, quick reaction to WWDC and why just two of five?

• 2:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, so and obviously that was an allusion to their ending, which they did this cute little ditty song made up of their correlating different App Store reviews for different real apps in the App Store with a six out of five, which is a very catchy song, nicely done. But that may have been unfortunately sort of one of the highlights of the event right there at the end, because, you know, this, of course, was the elephant in the room event, where there was all the talk leading up to it that Apple just would be shying away largely from AI this year, given what happened last year at WWDC, where, of course, they may be overpromised and ended up underdelivering on what was actually promised. And so, you know, when I say two out of five stars, I'm giving Apple, you know,

• 3:08Speaker 01

  a little bit of benefit of the doubt here, just because like it easily, I really think, could have been a zero out of five stars, given how little they had to talk about AI. And so, you know, they went back to sort of one of their historic strengths, and we can talk about this more in a bit, but going to UI instead of AI, right? Going to the overall sort of look and feel of their operating systems, again, is what has been considered a strength for them in the past. And I think they were able to sort of smartly navigate down that path, giving people things to talk about when they weren't going to be talking about, again, that elephant in the room. Now, they did talk about Apple Intelligence. I don't know if they ever used the word AI as, you know, last year they sort of famously said,

• 3:50Speaker 01

  or didn't say that, you know, AI, they went after Apple Intelligence, their own branding of it. They did talk about Apple Intelligence quite a bit. But sort of my interpretation and read of the situation is that they were just totally sort of downplaying it and skirting over, you know, what's actually obviously being talked a lot about in the industry and sort of just making it just like, you know, this little feature that we don't really need to talk about this year, because there's just little things that it's doing for you and it's not that big of a deal, which of course I think everyone outside of Apple would disagree with.

• 4:22Alex Kantrowitz?

  I think that's so perceptive. Like, one of the things that we saw from Apple last year is it at least realized that was one of the companies that could build this sort of masterful AI product drawing from all different information sources. And then if you look at the AI perspective this year, it was much more, let's do a couple of features that aren't sort of tied together in a coherent message. This is from Twitter user Signal. Watching this WWDC felt like watching a dinosaur try to do ballet. Technically and aesthetically competent, but spiritually lost. They talked about Apple Intelligence, like they just discovered the concept throughout the presentation. There was zero ecosystem thinking and no real attempt to rethink a

• 5:07Alex Kantrowitz?

  single interaction model. I mean, this was really the problem, right? It was just like that, that, and obviously they've had problems executing and we can touch on that. But that broader vision of what AI can be, it's just gone.

• 5:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, and I mean, if we take a step back, and they sort of kicked off of this, Tim Cook kicked off of it. This is a developer event, right? And developers are arguably have never been more excited to talk about anything than than they have been probably about AI, you know, certainly since, you know, the the introduction of smartphones and and, you know, the web before that. But like, AI arguably is even a step above those right now, because the developer ecosystem is so much larger than it was back in those days, thanks in part, obviously, to the smartphone and and all the different technologies we have now. But so this was supposed to be a developer focused event. And again, you hit on it, and I joked about it, but it was like, Apple spent three minutes talking about a phone, the phone app. Like, who uses the phone app anymore? Like, yeah, there's some nice little cute upgrades, but

• 6:05Speaker 01

  we didn't need to talk about that for three minutes when we talked about Apple Intelligence for roughly three minutes to kick off with. And so, you know, that dichotomy, it seemed very telling of it. And they just didn't have a lot to talk about with with regard to developers and Apple Intelligence. They did talk about, you know, you being able to leverage some of their on-device models that had leaked, of course, beforehand. I think Mark German, as as with most things, was able to scoop that ahead of time. But that that was sort of the one bone that they threw to developers. And it's unclear, you know, how useful that will be. I think it again, at like a high level, I think it's interesting to have on device access to models.

• 6:46Speaker 01

  You know, for all sorts of reasons, but are they really going to be as powerful as some of the other state of the art models out there? Obviously not, but can they be used for sort of other things that developers will actually find useful? That's obviously very TBD at this point.

• 6:59Alex Kantrowitz?

  I just want to put this all in context because Apple has failed so bad on rolling out Apple Intelligence that I think there's this, there's this belief out there that they like had a mind blowing presentation last year. But they didn't. And last year, okay, a couple of things. First of all, your headline was Apple fails to overreact to the AI revolution, which was like they had a bunch of features. They did have this ecosystem thinking, but even that would have kind of caught them up to the modern day thinking of a company like Google. So it wasn't like they were promising the moon. You know, it doesn't seem like they even delivered a lamp post.

• 7:41Alex Kantrowitz?

  And then, you know, I even just like looking back to last year, I did this poll. We talked about it on the reaction show. I asked people, your reaction to WWDC AI stuff mid event. Wow, cool or meh? Meh was the winner 50.4%. This year I asked again, Apple WWDC reaction, not even talking about AI. And now maybe my audience is primed because they've heard me talk about Apple for a moment, but it's probably the same audience as last year. And meh gained 30 points, a 30 point increase in meh. This is a landslide. It came in at 81%. So talk a little bit about sort of where Apple's vision is this year compared to last year?

• 8:21Alex Kantrowitz?

  And why you think they haven't even met these sort of muted projections for what they want to do with AI?

• 8:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, so you sort of hit on it, you know, in a bit of goes for a second. The notion last year it felt like was, look, maybe Apple has a window of opportunity here to actually step in and productize some of the work that's been done underneath with AI. Right? There'd been all the all the model breakthroughs and and obviously there was chat GPT doing some, you know, real consumer facing work with AI, but a lot of the other stuff was underwhelming and or just seemed very disparate and not sort of put together in a nice cohesive package, which of course Apple is famous for doing, coming into a market a little bit later than everyone else and sort of putting together a nice package around, you know, stuff that's not exactly new, but that they could sort of put it together in a in a new compelling offer, all in one

• 9:14Speaker 01

  offering. And so I think that was some of the hope after last year's W W C. Again, a lot of people sort of felt it was still underwhelming and certainly people, I think with a more perhaps technological bent, felt like, you know, it wasn't sort of up to the snuff of some of the other giant companies, what they were doing. But had Apple been able to execute on some of that, you know, maybe we would have been looking upon it differently now. Of course, they didn't, as as you're sort of talking about. And so this year, yeah, it was it was basically going into it, you know, with with that baggage hanging over them. And again, you know, sort of the the maybe hope that they would do something to surprise and, you know, something that that possibly hadn't leaked ahead of time, but that ended up not being the case.

• 9:58Speaker 01

  Every single thing had leaked, which I do think is a problem, increasingly increasing problem for Apple and in particular was a problem here. Because, you know, had everything not leaked, maybe they could have gotten away with a little bit more leeway with the audience. It's like, you know, oh, they hadn't unveiled the liquid glass UI elements ahead of time and and they hadn't known about the name changes ahead of time, you know, those are silly things compared to sort of what's going on with the overall AI revolution, but it still would have at least given them, you know, some some air cover, I think, with talking points, you know, on in on the media circuits and whatnot that, look, Apple's doing things a little bit differently and maybe, you know, maybe it would plant a seed of doubt in people's

• 10:38Speaker 01

  Minds that look, maybe this AI stuff still is too early and maybe Apple shouldn't be so focused on it right now. And that was again, some of the talk after last year, you know, maybe Apple was just getting in at the right time, or maybe it was still even a little bit early and they were doing things a little bit pressured by Wall Street, which I think in hindsight ended up being a lot pressured by Wall Street, right? And so I they couldn't sort of, uh, uh, you know, execute on some of those promises. But the this year, again, they just had, they had none of that benefit of the doubt. And so you're going into this looking like they're just sort of not talking about AI because they literally can't right now because they had to rejigger the whole team. They have to sort of, if not completely start over from scratch, at least sort of look at everything

• 11:20Speaker 01

  from, you know, a starting over from scratch standpoint and think, you know, much like Amazon, it seems like had to do perhaps with Alexa, sort of figure out, do we have something here that we can salvage? You know, notably in Siri, or is there, you know, are we going to really have to rethink this from the ground up?

• 11:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  I want to give you some credit here because there were two reactions that you had on our show last year. First of all was Apple fails to overreact to the AI revolution. Spot on, uh, even though they haven't even been able to meet their lack of overreaction. Uh, the other thing that you said, and I'm going to quote is there's a lot of cool stuff. I just don't know how you productize it. You were skeptical from the very beginning of Apple's ability to build the things that it showed in these demos last year. So let me just use that as like a jumping off point to ask you. And then I teased this at the beginning, and I think this is really important to discuss. To ask you about the limitations of AI itself, because we saw Apple make this promise. We saw Amazon make a similar promise in February of this year with Alexa Plus.

• 12:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  And some people may have Alexa Plus, I haven't met them. And I'm waiting months after they promised it would roll out, not here.

• 12:34Alex Kantrowitz?

  Google might be the most far ahead, but Gemini has severe limitations if we're being honest. I mean, if you're using Gemini and Gmail, you're probably going to be disappointed. Sometimes it works, but most of the time it's like, I think this should be better. So here's the question for you is, you know, have we gotten carried away with what AI can do? Because if you think about what AI has actually been useful for, it's great. The chatbots are great. I think everybody agrees that everyone who uses them, ChatGPT's O3 model, that thing's amazing. But where has AI extended beyond the chatbot? Maybe a tiny bit of agentic work in enterprise. But beyond that, we haven't seen the ability for these companies to build these promised smart assistants.

• 13:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  Despite, I guess we see another company talk about it at a developer conference, you know, every few months. So what's going on, MG?

• 13:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I think that some of this is exactly what we're talking about with Apple, Amazon and Google. So all three of them notably had, you know, assistance in the past, right? So there was Siri, there was Alexa and Google had, you know, the Google Assistant and Google Home products too, which sort of everyone sort of, you know, talks past now. But that was also, you know, a multi-million, million unit device that was in a lot of people's homes and still is in a lot of people's homes. And all of them, I sort of chalk up to having major problems sort of upgrading those, both devices and mentalities, because they had some level of success. Now, we could argue about, you know, Siri's level of success, but it was the first mover in a way, right?

• 14:10Speaker 01

  In the market and, you know, it got a lot of buzz and had some early promise. Alexa came along and sort of blew it out of the water. And Amazon just had a different strategy of ubiquity and getting these cheap Echo devices in everyone's homes and everywhere. And then Google sort of matched that general strategy with assistant stuff.

• 14:32Speaker 01

  But again, that in a way became an albatross around all of their necks because when it came time, you know, to this new wave of AI, they basically had all these devices that they still had to service and and hope to upgrade in some ways. And it's as it turns out, it looks like now in hindsight, obviously, it's just a lot harder to sort of go back and try to to shove this new technology into that old technology, even though on a surface level, they seem like they're similar. It seems like, you know, behind the scenes, they're not similar at all. And in fact, there's a lot of stuff that's like so simple that Alexa was doing with like timers and stuff that it's actually harder in some ways to get some of the newer technology to do. Now to your broader

• 15:13Speaker 01

  question about like products, like I just speak to that because I think like, a lot of those companies had the mentality of like, look, we already productized some of again, like what the high level of what these these assistants and chatbots are doing with echoes and and HomePod and things like that. So why can't we just do that again? Well, you know, as it turns out, first, first of all, like some consumers were turned away from those after trying them for so long and just not getting a lot of utility out of them, right? Beyond the timers and playing music, it's like, again, there's sort of this weird problem of success, quote unquote, success, in that the people were trained to use these devices. And now can they really go down that same path? And so, you know, I think the big companies are all sort of stuck in this weird

• 15:58Speaker 01

  position where they tried that path and it sort of worked, but it didn't work well enough. And it's probably not going to work exactly correctly with the new technology. And so do they try to use, you know, new devices? Or do they try, in the case of, of course, Apple and and Google, do they try to shove, you know, this technology into smartphones, which they're doing, Google to a greater extent, of course, than than Apple is right now. But what ultimately do the products look like there? Like you're talking about, is it just like, you know, being able to autocorrect Gmail or write emails for you in Gmail? Or is there sort of something new that should be done? And that, of course, gets to what, you know, Johnny Ive is potentially working on with with Sam Altman and with the OpenAI team and the whole

• 16:41Speaker 01

  Acquisition of the I O company and you know by all the accounts they're they're trying to build a new fangled device right something that's completely new from the ground up that's not trying to again cram this new technology in an old device and and you know who knows obviously we we can all guess as to what that will be and and how that will work no one will know until it ships including them you know they're they're talking a big game about it but they always talk big games about all the stuff especially Sam Altman of course is as he famously does and so it's really going to be hard to know for sure but I do think that that path is probably a little bit more clear than what the in you know the quote unquote incumbents or the big tech companies have right now because

• 17:21Speaker 01

  you know they just they have all of this legacy and institutional knowledge of like what they've done in the past to productize different technologies and I'm just not sure it's going to work that time because in a way we kicked off talking about like AI versus UI in a way AI is a new UI right like and it's weird to think about in in that way but it really sort of you need to I think think about it in that way and so if you're trying to cram AI into sort of the older paradigms of of UI and thinking like oh we need you know you know this this beautiful interface or we need you know like a like an app specifically to do that you know we'll see that will work for some services I think but not for everything.

• 18:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, so we might talk a little bit more about this Johnny Ive device but just to touch on it quickly because I've talked about it a lot in the newsletter and on the on the podcast recently we had a great YouTube comment and honestly it's a little coarse but sometimes this says everything you need to know about the internet where a guy said unless you can tell me unless you can tell me dudes can watch porno without a high definition screen the AI device is a hoax.

• 18:29Speaker 01

  Fair, I think that's a it's a fair criticism porn has driven a lot of technological adoption of course famously over the years and and what that looks like here but you know again like this is not a new and exactly new thought but I do generally agree with like the notion of if if we consider that that sort of AI and and UI blending together in some ways I think that. AI ends up working in some capacity on a product side because it's going to be all different sorts of of different interfaces and devices that we use it on. It's not just a phone. It's not just a computer and it's not necessarily just a, you know, new device of whatever. You know, these, these various other companies, including OpenAI are working on. Yeah. And so.

• 19:14Alex Kantrowitz?

  There's got to be a screen involved. It'll be a screen and maybe a device like I've device will not have a screen. That's what the reports are. No screen, not a wearable. There's no way that becomes the device. Is it a device? Maybe, probably actually. Or maybe that entire user, user interface just happens with your phone speaker and microphone.

• 19:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, look to, look to. Look to what Amazon's doing right now, right? I think you've talked to Panos Panay about this, like.

• 19:41Alex Kantrowitz?

  He demanded I get a screen device.

• 19:43Speaker 01

  Right, exactly. And that's how they're rolling it out. If, to your point, if they're actually rolling it out. I mean, I think that a few people have it. But, uh, but it's unclear how many, but they're restricting it heavily because they're restricting it to the newer Echo devices with a screen in particular.

• 19:57Alex Kantrowitz?

  So I want to ask you if you're, if you're going to account for any probability that, that AI technology itself just can't handle this. And I'll give like the argument that I think would sort of, and capture, sort of capture why LMS might not be able to do this. It's a lot of information to take into account. Think about how many emails we have. The data we have in maps, how many text messages we have. Is it possible that they could just, they simply cannot put the attention? Now, we have million or two million, I think two million token context windows. But is it possible that there's just, you know, these assistants that are trying to capture all your data cannot work reliably?

• 20:42Alex Kantrowitz?

  Trying to handle such a huge amount of information at once.

• 20:47Speaker 01

  I think it's a good question. It sort of reminds me of something I wrote a little several weeks ago at this point, but when it was around some news that basically when all of the AI companies were starting to roll out memory features, right? OpenAI did it and and Google's done it and and a few others. Google like doubled down and tripled down on that at at I O, right? Talking about how now it'll have the context of like pulling in Drive, pulling in Gmail and everything. And like, to me, when I hear that, so at a service level, that sounds like, yes, of course, like I want, you know, my AI to know everything and I want it to be able to to have the historical context. My thought a few weeks ago, and I still agree with this, is that

• 21:31Speaker 01

  I wouldn't be shocked if that sort of backfires against these companies in some way like, I'm not really sure that people want to use this new technology to sort of dredge up the past and have all of that historical context. Now, obviously, there's a famous examples like dating back to Facebook of like, you know, servicing, you know, old girlfriends or servicing people that you don't want to see anymore and that kind of stuff like, but I think even beyond that, just like everyone's, everyone evolves as a person a lot. And if you have the, you know, context from your Gmail's that you sent in two thousand four or five, or whenever Gmail actually launched, you know, twenty years ago, like, is that really going to inform your, you know, your

• 22:16Speaker 01

  interactions with AI in two thousand twenty five and two thousand twenty six and beyond? And what does that mean? Like, you would hope that the AI is smart enough to know, like, maybe discount something that you said in two thousand five, because you no longer believe that for whatever reason. But maybe it doesn't know that, right? Maybe it waits it just as heavily, you know? Certainly, there's, there's been plenty of of fits and starts with different AI products where they sort of don't quite get the context that they need to with regard to sort of the way that you're using AI, you know, dating to the the Bing chats hallucination stuff and trying to get Kevin Roos to leave his wife or whatnot.

• 22:56Speaker 01

  And so there's all sorts of historical precedent for why you you might not trust these these chatbots to sort of take the proper context into account when when utilizing these things. But again, to your exact question, I, you know, I do think that there's

• 23:13Speaker 01

  There's a concern that they're going down a path right now, thinking that it's the right thing to do when instead like maybe even something like OpenAI, which is obviously a much newer product, shouldn't be so heavily thinking about and worrying about all of this memory stuff and historical, you know, stuff to pull in there.

• 23:32Alex Kantrowitz?

  Let's go to one more YouTube comment because I think this sort of gets exactly your point. We had somebody in my recap from the event on Monday says, they said, "I don't give one flying flip for AI on my phone. Apple should just leave it out altogether. I don't want AI reading my messages. I don't want AI looking at my photos. I want AI to get the F out of my life." I wonder how many, what percentage of the population that comment represents?

• 24:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, there's a lot in there, right? Like, I've seen that too. I've seen that general comment. People have left me similar comments, right? Like especially about Apple. It's interesting, especially about Apple products because I feel like, I don't know if it's the sort of historical privacy messaging or even the anti sort of Meta and Google messaging, right? Where it's like, people who are, you know, diehard in the Apple ecosystem, almost at least historically have viewed Google and Meta, you know, as sort of the villains, you know, who are just all about data hoovering and, you know, bringing this all in to, to feed their business models. Obviously, there's some level of truth to that because their model, that is their business model. But there's, you know, there's of course a flip side to that too, which is

• 24:46Speaker 01

  Apple's not, you know, the full-on white knight in this regard, who, you know, who's doing everything, you know, for purely, you know, above board reasons. Everyone has their own agendas, right? And everyone has their own business models and everyone has, has reasons, all companies have reasons to do what they're doing. But to you, to that comment, yeah, I do think that there's, there's a subset of people who look at this stuff with AI and think like, is this Apple sort of delving into a world really that's more of the Google and Meta mindset with data and everything else and like? I don't want any of this stuff. Now, I do think that there's a bit of a Luddite concern there, right?

• 25:27Speaker 01

  Like that this is just people not fully understanding or or not liking the notion of having to learn a new thing or worried that, you know, this is this is just not going to be useful at all. And again, to our earlier points, like it's up to these companies to prove the usefulness of these products. I do think I think that ChatGPT has done that, and I think that there's a reason why, you know, where there's all this talk about Google Search, and I think Google's reactions to this and and shoving AI front and center into search are more indicative of anything that they're saying out loud. It's just follow what they're doing. Like, it's obvious that this has worked to some extent, but will anything work beyond that? You hit on some of the other things, generative stuff.

• 26:07Speaker 01

  You know, some of the video stuff is cool, but it's so early that it's like it it's just not there right now. And so the only thing that is there right now is really ChatGPT. And, um, you know, what what does that look like productized? I mean, OpenAI already did it, and so either Apple just, you know, fully more fully bakes it in, which I still think, by the way, they should probably do with Siri while they rebuild Siri, right? Just totally outsource it to ChatGPT. We did see that yesterday announced like that was sort of one of the more subtle, interesting things. Like they did a bunch of more smaller partnerships with Chat with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT.

• 26:46Speaker 01

  And notably with the with Xcode, where all the rumors had suggested that it might be anthropic and clawed that that were sort of being baked in. And, you know, it's it's probable that they're still sort of testing that behind the scenes, but they rolled it out, it sounds like with with ChatGPT. And so it's interesting that they're going further down that that path with that company. But again, that that sort of makes sense. Again, that's the that's the product. That's the the brand that's resonating with people right now from a product perspective.

• 27:14Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right. I I had this conversation, like along those lines, I had this conversation with someone on the Broadcast Riser yesterday when I was out at WWDC or on Monday, uh, where they were like, well, I don't need an AI phone. I like my phone as it is. I was like, yeah, well, you don't have it. And that's sort of been the history of technology is that. We the best companies will give us things we didn't know that we wanted and all of a sudden they become essential to our life.

• 27:38Speaker 01

  Absolutely. I would just give you one, one quick anecdote on that exact point, which is my own personal usage of, believe it or not, back in the day, uh, when before the iPhone launched, I was super skeptical. I watched the, the keynote like everyone else did. I wasn't there, but I was watching it from afar and I just thought like, yeah, it looks cool. There's no way I'm buying a $700 phone. Like, you know, I had a Motorola Razr flip phone. I was like, this is great. It's super small. It fits in my pocket. That's all I need. Like, what am, what am I going to do with a $700 phone? Uh, sort of like Steve Ballmer, I guess I sounded like back in the day. Um, and then day one, I happened to be near an Apple store. I was actually back home where I grew up in Ohio, uh, and I just on a, on a whim, I saw a long line of people. So I was just like, yeah,

• 28:23Speaker 01

  I had a few minutes to kill. I'll go wait in line and just see, see what the deal is with this iPhone. I picked it up in the store and I literally walked out of the store with it. It was like, it was one of those things where I just used it for 10 seconds and immediately got it. Whereas I didn't get it, even with Steve Jobs brilliant presentation, um, and even with all the hype around it, I just thought, no way I'm doing that. And then I picked it up and I didn't necessarily have the, the $700 to spend at the time, but I had a credit card and I was going to, uh, get that device no matter what. And to your point, like maybe, you know, there will be something that comes along, uh, that we see that with, with AI where it becomes like it's, on paper, it doesn't sound like there's anything that can sort of come along, but if someone nails it, like it could be one of those aha moments.

• 29:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  And in the near term, how competitive is this? So here's another question that we got. This is from the big technology discord. How much time do you think they have? After Google I O, I was considering switching from the iPhone to an Android. For those like me using Windows on the desktop and Apple on the phone, Google might hit an AI tipping point that would make it worth giving up my pretty phone, especially if an Android phone will make my Google AI glasses work better. So is this already competitive? Is this like five years down the line? Like, how should we be thinking about this?

• 29:42Speaker 01

  I've heard this a lot, too, and I've heard, you know, you hear it sort of increasingly over the years, right? Like, there's always, it's interesting dichotomy between WWDC and Google I/O, because they're always around the same time, right? They're both developer-focused events. And while it's not the iPhone event, like, it's, it's sort of a good jumping off point to sort of compare where the two companies are at, right? And, and this year, of course, is, is a, you know, vast chasm, at least with regard to AI, with where the two companies are at. But even after I/O this year, I feel like I heard that exact comment that you're talking about more and more than I ever have. And again, I feel like I hear that more and more every year, where it's like, this is the year that I'm going to ditch my iPhone and go over to Android, because clearly they have

• 30:23Speaker 01

  the momentum with, with AI. And if you believe that sort of this is the future technology that's going to matter the most, like, it doesn't necessarily matter if Apple has the better UI, and if Apple has even the better, you know, hardware necessarily, if, again, AI is going to take over. I don't think that that's necessarily the case right now for exactly the reasons that we're talking about, because I don't think that there's exactly the killer app that, that makes Android that much better than iOS right now. I have, I have a Pixel Fold, you know, the newest one, I think it's Pixel Fold 9. Right now, it's a nice device. I think it's cool that the folding, you know, form factors is sort of coming into its own. Obviously, Apple's going to go down the

• 31:05Speaker 01

  path, it sounds like, maybe next year, and, and they'll have something like that. But regardless of the hardware, again, the you, the AI elements of it is, is sort of what I was looking for and why I got that, to see how, how different it actually was. And yeah, there's things where Gemini is more baked in, of course, to the, to the OS level. But it's honestly, in my mind, at least, it's not that differentiated right now, because on the iPhone, again, Chat GPT is sort of the leader in the, you know, in the house right now with regard to consumer facing AI products. And so that app is on the iPhone and it's good and it's on the Mac and it's good and it's on the iPad and it's good.

• 31:44Speaker 01

  And so until there's something new and maybe to your commenter's point of this other secondary device where it better integrates with it. It would be interesting if that sort of ends up being a weak point for Apple because that's historically been a strength, right? The AirPods work with the iPhone, the Apple Watch works with the iPhone. And so what if all of these like sort of concert of AI devices work better with Android than they do with Apple devices? Because Apple is so far behind in AI and that could be a major weak point. But we're ways away from those secondary compelling AI devices from coming out.

• 32:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay, and so can I suggest something? Is it possible that this mistake of this Apple's inability to ship Apple intelligence is not, you know, necess- Because like you said, it's not immediately competitive. It's not as much about the fact that they haven't been able to do this, is that Apple just needs something right now? Because they're under attack from so many different angles. The tariff issue is obviously not good for them. Their service business is under attack from two vectors. One is that that search revenue that they get from Google, the $20 billion to be the default may go away.

• 33:06Alex Kantrowitz?

  And the other, like you've written about, they're going to start potentially being forced to take payments via the web. And not in their in-app payment service, which means they get zero cut if that's the direction consumers want to go. And so you also have flat iPhone sales. So you need something and that's why the pressure is on Apple Intelligence. Maybe less about the fact that people are going to get the AI phone and run away from Apple. But like this company needs a spark.

• 33:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a great point. In particular, I think, you know, what you're, you know, hinting upon is the the notion that basically for the past, um, you know, since the iPhone launched in in two thousand and seven, it's been up and to the right sales wise until the very recent, you know, past few handful of quarters where things have sort of stagnated. Uh, and so that up and to the right of of iPhone sales have sort of masked anything else that Apple is is sort of missed on. And that includes, by the way, the Vision Pro, right? Like that obviously was not a huge hit, but it didn't matter so much, right? Because they still had the iPhone and they still had some of the other services business, which are also hitting upon with with Google and and the App Store.

• 34:18Speaker 01

  And so all of those were able to mask um any sort of um, you know, missteps that they had. And they don't really have anything right now that can mask that because again, iPhone revenue is is now sort of um, flatlining and and just stable um and not growing anymore. And now services revenue, which is the one growth area that they've had for the past few years, is under massive pressure. And if that were to stop um or go down, if they lose the Google search, uh, you know, twenty billion dollars a year deal like they have, all of a sudden, they have all sorts of unanswered questions and they have a lot of pressure for that next big thing um to come in to sort of restabilize the company.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  And so I think this is sort of a perfect storm in a way, timing wise. And so going back to, yeah, the notion of of AI and why that plays into this, I do think that, yeah, that's why certainly what Wall Street is looking for, right? With regard to like, what's the next growth area? And for Microsoft, it's been AI. For uh, Google, it's been AI. For Amazon, you know, it's been AI. So all of the, all these other companies have sort of ridden this wave and Apple hasn't so far. Uh, and so I think Wall Street looks to like, oh, well, they'll get back on the horse and they'll be able to do it. So that hasn't been the case so far and um, but that's one side of the story. The other thing that I think is is sort of downplayed a little bit in

• 35:44Speaker 01

  This narrative, which is that beyond everything that we've been talking about with with regard to AI and and the productization of it. And and maybe they're not too early because maybe no one's really productizing it in a compelling way right now. I do think more so with AI than with any other technology that I've seen in the past. It's moving so fast to the point where if Apple isn't in the game, I worry that they just don't have both the right mentality, but also the right talents. And they're not able to recruit the right talents and they don't have the right leadership in place to sort of be there if and when the time comes, you know, for it to really take off from a product perspective, right?

• 36:26Speaker 01

  And I do think that a lot of the narratives that we've seen sort of leading up to WD WDC about the behind the scenes stories about what went wrong at Apple and why they sort of weren't able to meet the moment with with regard to AI. Sort of does point to both some leadership challenges, but also just it's a company that historically operates a very, you know, set set in their ways way of doing things. And AI, the real sort of transformative nature of it for Apple might be the fact that they have to sort of break that mentality of how they've operated up until date to be able to work in this new environment. And again, it's weird because like we're talking about, it's not necessarily because the products are ready to go.

• 37:07Speaker 01

  But it's that if they don't get on board now, they're going to be so far behind when the products are ready to go that they don't have, again, the right leadership, the right talent and the right mentality to actually execute as we saw sort of in a small way over the past year.

• 37:21Alex Kantrowitz?

  This is why I've been jumping up and down on the table for them to acquire perplexity would be the biggest acquisition in their history by far. I know you ranked it number two on your list of potential Apple acquisition targets after Anthropic, but they're raising at a like fif- fourteen or sixteen billion dollar valuation. I said this on the program, like on the program on Friday on CNBC yesterday. I'm going to write about it. I'm not going to stop until I manifest this into reality, but you know, they're it's a company that a hundred billion dollar buyback two years in a row, like go out and buy perplexity today.

• 37:52Speaker 01

  So, and I agree. And I mean, I think I think Anthropic I put as number one, simply because of like the overall mentality that they have, right? With with how they talk about AI, it feels like it's more simpatico with the way that sort of Apple would think about things, whereas like perplexity. They have a little bit more, you know, a little bit more in your face, right? Like, and they have to, right?

• 38:11Alex Kantrowitz?

  In that culture.

• 38:12Speaker 01

  Yes, exactly. It would be a little bit, a little bit of a challenge, but to his credit, like they're the scrappy startup. Like they're going, they were going up against Google when no one thought that search would be a vector that you could attack. And they were right about that, right? I mean, like, obviously, they're, you know, they're, they're not to the extent that ChatGPT is, but still. They picked an avenue, and I think a smart one, and that avenue happens to be another avenue that would immensely help Apple beyond just the AI. Having a search element of it, if this Google search, you know, component, you know, goes away for Apple, like having technologies like the ones that perplexity can bring on board with AI and with search itself, I think would be immensely useful.

• 38:54Speaker 01

  And to your point, it's also a lot cheaper than what Anthro- I don't think, I don't think that Apple can buy Anthropic just because of like the weird ownership now of Amazon and Google owning so much of that company. I think it would be very hard to see how they could possibly do that, and it would just cost, you know, a hundred billion dollars or whatever it would cost in order to do that. But perplexity is definitely something that they probably could swallow and figure out a way to do. Though, as I'm sure, you know, you saw the other day, it seems like they're closing in on a major deal with Samsung. And, you know, does that muddy the waters of sort of trying to get a deal done in that regard? Because Samsung, their biggest device editor.

• 39:31Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, you gotta do it right away. You cannot wait.

• 39:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:35Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right. So I want to end this segment or this whole, like, let me put a point on this conversation. You have a prediction in your piece, either the one that just came out or the one that's come out recently, that Apple will get its act together on AI by 2026. So I want to ask you this. It does seem like you do believe that this, this, this ever-promised assistant that we've seen from all these companies, it will, it will materialize. This is going to happen.

• 40:06Speaker 01

  I mean, I would say, I would say that I don't think that they'll have everything solved by 2026 by any means. But I do think I I've heard enough sort of and done enough triangulating where I feel like they're at least now have the appropriate fires lit under their asses to to get, you know, a little bit back in line. I do think that they would be helped by an acquisition or two or three or many to bring more of just what we were talking about, sort of that right mentality. You know, and sort of a changing in a way of the culture to just a more, you know, fluid and and shipping culture than than sort of these, you know, bespoke jewels of of that liquid glass.

• 40:49Speaker 01

  Maybe the best encapsulated version of that we've yet seen. And so I would caveat it to no to no end that they have a lot that needs to get done before from here to there. At the same time, they have a device and they have multiple devices and an ecosystem of devices, including these, including this, including whatever comes next with Vision Pro.

• 41:12Alex Kantrowitz?

  AirPods Watch, right?

• 41:13Speaker 01

  Yeah, yes, that they can, they can leverage that. And by the way, they have the other sort of absolute necessity in all of this, which is that they have a retail presence which no one else can match and for consumer goods. And so if if and when they can find sort of either that next device or that product for the current devices, they can move units and sell these things in a way that that Google can't match in a way that Meta can't match. You know, even if you believe that Meta is going down the right path with sort of the Ray-Bans. And now, you know, whatever the it's not Orion anymore, whatever the new version of Orion. I think they have a new constellation they named it after or something. Artemis, Artemis, I think is the new, the new version of it.

• 41:58Speaker 01

  So, you know, Apple's obviously going down those paths as well. But again, Apple has this huge strength. They have the retail stores all around the world. So if they can get it right, and again, hopefully make some acquisitions to sort of speed that up a little bit and just have the overall right mentality, I think they have an opportunity to come back into the game.

• 42:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay, and Apple, nonetheless, standing, let's say we take into account all these companies. You do think that one, like, again, talking about this assistant that maybe can check your mail and, you know, give you an update about when you need to get to the airport. Like, that's the example that they've all given. Or like, be contextually aware, you get a text message, it knows it's important. It puts something in your shopping cart when that happens and then, you know, shows it to you and says, I've put these three things together and I've done this for you. So you're of the belief that we might be, we might actually see that and maybe within the next couple of years.

• 42:52Speaker 01

  I do think that we'll eventually see that. I would just say to that, you know, it's, it's, it's so funny that Apple, Amazon, they all use the same mom or grandma stranded at the airport. They all use the same example, like.

• 43:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's the same one, right?

• 43:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's the same example always.

• 43:07Alex Kantrowitz?

  Can someone pick this lady up, please?

• 43:10Speaker 01

  Someone save mom or save grandma, like, what is, why is she always stuck there? Why does she have a phone? Now she, now that Apple upgraded the phone app, maybe she can make a call again.

• 43:20Alex Kantrowitz?

  Get a new grandma.

• 43:21Speaker 01

  But I would say, like, I, I think that someone will do those rights eventually or get that right. I think it's a matter of time and, and, you know, you sort of hit on like, is it just like, we just don't have, these AI models don't have the, the capacity to sort of deal with that complexity. I do think that they'll eventually get there. I'm not worried about that, but I'm not sure that those are really killer use cases of ultimate use cases of AI. I think that that's like, again, sort of trying to squeeze an old paradigm into this new technology, right? And I think that things that end up being the killer use cases are things that we're just not thinking about right now because we don't have the right either hardware, we don't have even the right software necessarily in place for what they can actually achieve.

• 44:06Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay, I need to take a quick break, get to our midroll, and then I want to talk for a couple of minutes about liquid glass itself. Whether this is actually an upgrade for Apple, like I said yesterday, or I said on, in my little short pod on Monday, or whether I made a mistake. I'm going to give you an answer, a definitive answer on the other side of this break. This episode is brought to you by AVPoint. Everyone's racing to roll out AI right now. Co-pilots, chatbots, agents doing real work. But here's the part nobody loves talking about. All that AI runs on your data. And most teams have no single way to see it, secure it, and prove it's under control. That's exactly what AVPoint does. For 25 years, they've been the trusted layer beneath the world's most demanding data,

• 44:50Alex Kantrowitz?

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• 45:32Alex Kantrowitz?

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• 46:15Alex Kantrowitz?

  Learn how to stop online threats before they become real-world attacks. The link's in the show notes.

• 46:24Alex Kantrowitz?

  And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with MG Siegler. You can find his writing at Spyglass.org. I'm a subscriber. Definitely recommend you go subscribe. It's great stuff, high volume and always interesting. So, yeah, for sure. And so, MG, you know, it's so interesting because I did this like, sort of from the WWDC 10-minute podcast, talking about my reactions. And the one thing I took forgiven was that this was like a good upgrade, a good UI upgrade. And that liquid glass, at least in their presentations, looked really nice. And then people started downloading it on their phones and they are, let's say, not happy.

• 47:07Speaker 01

  I've seen some of their reaction, yeah.

• 47:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, there are people who are like, looking at the notification screen and saying that, like, it's translucent and I can't really see the notifications. There are people like, who are pulling up the lock screen and they're like, this is, let me just read a couple of things. "Steve Jobs would have taken you out back and shot your kneecaps for pitching something with this contrast ratio." Someone took a screenshot from the presentation where there's like a pink Mac desktop with like flowers and other stuff in the background and they say, "This is why Johnny Ive left." "Nikita Beer might have my favorite thing." He said, "If I can't read notifications anymore, then I might as well stop talking to women

• 47:49Alex Kantrowitz?

  altogether." And he put a photo up of the Google Pixel. So, what's your read of this design, this design update? I'm starting to take back, I think I called it beautiful twice in my Monday podcast, and I'm starting to regret that characterization.

• 48:07Speaker 01

  So, I have a few thoughts about this. First and foremost, you and I have been around doing this long enough where we know that the immediate reaction to any sort of change, especially user-facing design change, is almost always going to be negative, right? Like, people just don't like change and they don't like switching up stuff. Now, Apple's historically done a little bit better because they're so design-oriented and people, I think, give them more of the benefit of the doubt that they're gonna, you know, release these beautiful... Beautiful designs into the wild. But yeah, I mean, I've seen everything on the social about sort of the backlash to this. I will say I also downloaded iPad OS 26 to my iPad, to a backup iPad, last night and played around with it.

• 48:53Speaker 01

  I think it's fine right now. I would say I'm hesitant to say that I love it or hate it. I think that there's some things which are better. It's boring nuanced position of it. But I do think like, again, having done this long enough, a lot of these early betas, they end up tweaking quite a bit, even from a design perspective, right? Like, there's little shading things that don't make sense right now. There's notifications that you can't read right now. Obviously, Apple is going to fix those before they sort of ship this to the wild. This is the very first developer beta. I think before the public betas, it's reasonable to think that they'll get quite a bit better in that regard. But overall, do I think that it's the right general stance to take, you know, from a design perspective?

• 49:36Speaker 01

  I mean, I think it's good to unify the designs right across all their different devices, which they've slowly been doing anyway. And I do think the the flat, quote unquote, flat design that, you know, Johnny I did right back in the iOS seven days was getting a little bit stale. It's always good to refresh these things. I do worry that liquid glass is a little bit too transparent for what it's doing. I also think like, I think it works better on certain devices probably. And I do think like, it's a little bit, I love the fact that they've finally done like Windows and stuff on iPad OS, which is why I downloaded it there. But it also is like, comically turning it into a Mac,

• 50:21Speaker 01

  which, you know, sort of Craig Federighi, a little bit sort of tongue in cheek joked about on stage, I think during the keynote. But, you know, overall, I think that everyone will calm down after they've lived with it for a little bit.

• 50:36Speaker 01

  My board cake.

• 50:38Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, I think that's probably true. I mean, every I remember hating many redesigns as well. Uh, but then again, some redesigns really ruin products. So.

• 50:46Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, Snap has had to roll back several redesigns of things, right? And so if if uh, if if people really hate it, would Apple dare roll something back? I mean, they basically did that. It sounds like with. What's that?

• 51:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  It might be to see Apple, if Apple actually messes up on design two. Then, yeah, you gotta just it's another alarm.

• 51:07Speaker 01

  They they sort of admitted that, though, with the photos thing, right? Like even in the in the keynote, they talked about, yeah, we had to go back to the thing that uh, that's sort of giving you the option for the thing that everyone wanted, so.

• 51:20Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right, let's end with this. Um, give us the state of Apple and with with the context of something that you mentioned earlier about uh, you you actually wrote this also in your recap piece, just uh, the leaks. I think you said that such a leaky boat is never a good sign of overall company health. Um, yeah. What's what? Where does that company stand today? And where's it going?

• 51:45Speaker 01

  Um, so you know, while I was sort of optimistic about um, you know, where I think they can get to and how they think they have the fire lit under them with regard to AI and and you know, the the reporting, the Mike Rockwell guy who was on stage yesterday talked about Vision OS, he's taken over the project, it sounds like. Um, and so I think that they're they're correcting the ship there. I do still worry at a higher level about leadership issues. And again, not not knowing these people directly, it's hard to sort of speak to it exactly. But again, just triangulating everything that's being reported and everything, both you hear and see the manifestation of these things like I do worry that they just are sort of stuck in this

• 52:25Speaker 01

  stubborn mentality of doing things the old ways. And I worry that in, you know, the quote unquote age of AI, that that's just not gonna sort of cut it anymore. And I do think that all of the things that, you know, you talked about, like they're getting hit from all sides right now. I think that there there's probably this weird. Internal sense. And I think that one thing that drove that home to me was, um, you know, maybe he'll speak to it, I guess, later. I don't know if you're gonna go to it, but they, they apparently are not sending an Apple exec to John Gruber's, uh, talk show, um, you know, event this year for the first time in a decade, which is a weird thing. And, uh, you know,

• 53:05Speaker 01

  it seems to stem at least partially from the fact that he was super critical about their AI, you know, shit show, for lack of a better word.

• 53:13Alex Kantrowitz?

  Reasonably so.

• 53:14Speaker 01

  And, yes, and reasonably so, right? He wrote his post of the Something Rotten in the State of Cupertino and, and it seems like as a result, they're, um, you know, they're, they're ghosting him at this event. And so, again, that sort of speaks to what we're talking about, I think, where they just have this weird mentality and to the point of leaks, like, I mean, it is wild how much German gets. Like, I was, I was an Apple reporter back in the day. I got a fair amount of Apple scoops, nothing compared to what Mark German pulls out of Apple and how he's getting those. I mean, I, I, I have no idea. But the, the mere fact that Apple has not been able to stop some level of them, and maybe they have, but the fact that they keep coming, if they stopped one leak and they keep coming,

• 53:59Speaker 01

  that's even a worse situation, as it speaks to like the internal culture stuff. And it wasn't just German this time. Nine to five Mac is, is former, former place of, of operation got a bunch of stuff. There were a bunch of YouTubers who got a bunch of stuff, it feels like, that is leaking out. And it's just like, this is, it's just not a good, uh, internal culture, you know, showcase when all this stuff that's, that people have been working, pouring their heart and souls into, uh, all year long, just leak out on a, on a whim. It's just not a, it's not a good, uh, it doesn't feel like a good, healthy environment, if that's happening.

• 54:35Alex Kantrowitz?

  Definitely. And I'll just end by saying that the vibes at this event yesterday couldn't have been diff- more different from the way that it felt a year prior. Now, part of, part of that is media hype, but I'll just give you one example. Last year, uh, we were in the Steve Jobs Theater for a Q and A and people got to hang around the grounds all day long. And event wrapped up, uh, on Monday, I was, uh, you know, looking out from the broadcast riser, because that was basically where I was allowed to be. And the Jobs Theater was, I, I wouldn't call it empty, but there was basically nobody there. It was a muted event and a very, very different vibe.

• 55:13Speaker 01

  What's your take on this stance, which I agree with, even though it's been a while since I've been to one of these, they need to go back to doing this live, like not these pre-recorded things.

• 55:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  Oh, 100%. I mean, it's so funny because I asked to go to the to the actual keynote and you know, because I was there for CNBC. So we did the pregame on halftime report and then we had a couple hour break while they did the keynote and then I wanted to come back and they're like, no, we don't have room in the keynote. So I was like, okay. And then I like, you know, again, remembered, wait a second, it's just a bunch of people watching a video on a screen. What if you want to be there? I'm just going to watch on YouTube. So yeah, of course, it's just bizarre.

• 55:50Speaker 01

  It's, it's very weird and it's again, speaks to like, I don't know, example, they're just not reading, they're not reading a number of rooms. They're not reading the AI room. They're not reading the courtrooms all around the world. Yeah. They're not reading any sorts of things. They just, they're stubborn and, and I think that that's, it's in the past in some ways that maybe has helped them, but these days like there's, there's a lot of fires that's that they need to put out at this point.

• 56:17Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right, folks, go check out spiglass.org for MG's writing on Apple and many of other companies. MG, it's always great to speak with you. Thanks for coming on the show.

• 56:26Speaker 01

  Thanks so much, Alex.

• 56:27Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right, everybody. Thank you for listening. Ron, John, Roy and I will be back on Friday to break down the week's news, including Meta's big investment in Scale AI and Alexander Wang making his way inside the company. It's going to be a fun show, so we hope you tune in. We'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

• 57:20Speaker 02

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